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How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

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  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 66,027
    Probably just a bad data feed. Bet if you clicked through to the bookie from there it would not be 14/5.
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 37,066
    I guess it's only natural after such a bad defeat but looking online a lot of Portsmouth fans seem to think they're gone and some want the manager sacked. They still have Oxford and Leicester to play at Fratton Park though, so it's not exactly over for them yet.
  • cabbles
    cabbles Posts: 15,567
    Pompey will need some real character now after that result.  Off the back of some poor recent results, going into an intl break and with only 8 games to turn it around.  Player for player you would say Leicester are the better team out of them, Oxford and Pompey, so I think it’s now between those three for the remaining two spots

    O’Neill at Blackburn a safe pair of hands, and if WBA can pick up a couple more wins, they’ll be confident they can get over the line
  • Crispywood
    Crispywood Posts: 1,782
    Praying Pompey and Oxford stay up because it makes our lives easier next season but can’t see it happening Blackburn have a decent gap, West Brom look like they’ve clicked, and Leicester’s squad is just too good to go down 
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 51,015
    Good that only 1 of the bottom 4 (Leicester) gained on us, at that was only by a point. 

    It seems its now WBA's turn to win a couple of games & move out of the relegation zone, after both Pompey & Oxford did it in recent weeks - although those 2 both lost today thus stalling their escape plans.

    Must be Leicester's turn next. Hopefully by then we will be safe, but after today I will start getting worried if we haven't won another game by the time we come to play Sheff Wed. 

    I'll be happy when we get to 52 points. Ecstatic when we reach 54.

    We are in what I would call the Dead Duck end of the season (nothing to play for) now.


    That said (airing on caution's side) everyone said Portsmouth were safe, now they are only one point from safety with the worst (apart from Sheffield Wednesday oc) goal difference in the league with that 6-1 defeat.

    We’re definitely in danger until we’re not. I’ll rest easy when we’re not. Not before.
  • Crispywood
    Crispywood Posts: 1,782
    Has any championship side gone down being 9 points clear of the bottom 3 with 7 games to go? 
  • MarcusH26
    MarcusH26 Posts: 9,588
     Would fear for Pompey now. Losing 6-1 to the most Jekyll and Hyde team in the league now makes their Easter fixtures both must wins away at Norwich and at home to Oxford. Think Leicester will squeak clear unless there's another deduction. 
  • iainment
    iainment Posts: 8,178
    Has any championship side gone down being 9 points clear of the bottom 3 with 7 games to go? 
    Even if they haven’t yet at some point it’ll happen.
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 71,637
    Good that only 1 of the bottom 4 (Leicester) gained on us, at that was only by a point. 

    It seems its now WBA's turn to win a couple of games & move out of the relegation zone, after both Pompey & Oxford did it in recent weeks - although those 2 both lost today thus stalling their escape plans.

    Must be Leicester's turn next. Hopefully by then we will be safe, but after today I will start getting worried if we haven't won another game by the time we come to play Sheff Wed. 

    I'll be happy when we get to 52 points. Ecstatic when we reach 54.

    We are in what I would call the Dead Duck end of the season (nothing to play for) now.


    That said (airing on caution's side) everyone said Portsmouth were safe, now they are only one point from safety with the worst (apart from Sheffield Wednesday oc) goal difference in the league with that 6-1 defeat.

    I don't think people said Pompey were safe, it's more that most of us expected them to be safe, based on how they played at the Valley, and the Den 4 days later, winning both games 3-1.

    A massive shock for them to just get 1 point out of the next 6 games, and to be hammered by an average QPR team today.
  • DamoNorthStand
    DamoNorthStand Posts: 12,102
    Has any championship side gone down being 9 points clear of the bottom 3 with 7 games to go? 

    Charlton Athletic - “Hold my beer”

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  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 52,716
    Good that only 1 of the bottom 4 (Leicester) gained on us, at that was only by a point. 

    It seems its now WBA's turn to win a couple of games & move out of the relegation zone, after both Pompey & Oxford did it in recent weeks - although those 2 both lost today thus stalling their escape plans.

    Must be Leicester's turn next. Hopefully by then we will be safe, but after today I will start getting worried if we haven't won another game by the time we come to play Sheff Wed. 

    I'll be happy when we get to 52 points. Ecstatic when we reach 54.

    We are in what I would call the Dead Duck end of the season (nothing to play for) now.


    That said (airing on caution's side) everyone said Portsmouth were safe, now they are only one point from safety with the worst (apart from Sheffield Wednesday oc) goal difference in the league with that 6-1 defeat.

    Everyone did not say Pompey were safe.
  • cafc_se7
    cafc_se7 Posts: 2,446
    Has any championship side gone down being 9 points clear of the bottom 3 with 7 games to go? 
    I know it was mentioned on Friday night that this time last season Preston were 9 points clear of the drop and only survived by a point in the last day of the season.
  • Crispywood
    Crispywood Posts: 1,782
    cafc_se7 said:
    Has any championship side gone down being 9 points clear of the bottom 3 with 7 games to go? 
    I know it was mentioned on Friday night that this time last season Preston were 9 points clear of the drop and only survived by a point in the last day of the season.
    They were only 7 points clear at this stage and they only picked up 3/21 possible points.

    So even if we picked up 1/21 points it would still be the exact same margin Preston still survived with. 

    Bear in mind we also have to play Wednesday who have lost 15 of their last 16 games and I don’t see us losing all our other games and even then were still probably safe. 

    I’m already on the beach thinking bout next season although players shouldn’t be when they’re getting paid 10k a week 




  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 66,027
    After 39 games played last season, the bottom three were the end of season bottom three.

    Cardiff 22nd -> 24th // +4pts
    Plymouth 24th -> 23rd // +12pts
    Luton 23rd -> 22nd // +11pts

    Hull 21st -> 21st // +8pts
    Preston 14th -> 20th // +3pts
    Derby 20th -> 19th // +9pts
    Stoke 18th -> 18th // +9pts
    Oxford 19th -> 17th // +11pts
    Portsmouth 17th -> 16th // +9pts
    QPR 15th -> 15th // +11pts

    Preston had a horrendous last seven games, drawing 3 and losing 4 and came within a point of going down.

  • wolfgang
    wolfgang Posts: 709
    golfaddick said:

    I'll be ... ecstatic when we reach 54.

  • DyerConsequences
    DyerConsequences Posts: 2,940
    Four players sent home early from the Northern Ireland squad. 3 of them are championship players and they play against Leicester, Oxford and Portsmouth on Friday.

    Meanwhile the four Oxford players remain in the squad which could mean they have another game before they're due to play on Friday.

    Seems quite a nice development for Blackburn and whoever their manager is 🤔
  • PrincessFiona
    PrincessFiona Posts: 5,669
    edited March 31
    CAFC_boi said:
    Just seen an article say we have the lowest wage bill in the league with Kaminski our highest earner by far on £20k a week. 

    Aside from the daylight robbery by Kaminski, just shows again what an incredible job Nathan Jones is doing on a relative shoestring. 

    Leicester by comparison have the highest and look how that is working out … 
    May we have a link to the article please?

    https://www.capology.com/uk/championship/payrolls/




  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 66,027
    Leicester and Oxford both on 40 points from 40 games, a ppg that would have both on 46 at the end of the season.

    But over such short spans of time you cannot discount one or both finding some form and picking up more than 6 more points.

    Thinking we’re already safe on 48 is definitely a risk. Three more points and I think you can definitely call it done.
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 35,582
    Good that only 1 of the bottom 4 (Leicester) gained on us, at that was only by a point. 

    It seems its now WBA's turn to win a couple of games & move out of the relegation zone, after both Pompey & Oxford did it in recent weeks - although those 2 both lost today thus stalling their escape plans.

    Must be Leicester's turn next. Hopefully by then we will be safe, but after today I will start getting worried if we haven't won another game by the time we come to play Sheff Wed. 

    I'll be happy when we get to 52 points. Ecstatic when we reach 54.
    Nothings changed for me. Wont feel safe until we get to 52 points. 


  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 37,066
    edited April 4
    Leicester and Oxford both on 40 points from 40 games, a ppg that would have both on 46 at the end of the season.

    But over such short spans of time you cannot discount one or both finding some form and picking up more than 6 more points.

    Thinking we’re already safe on 48 is definitely a risk. Three more points and I think you can definitely call it done.
    Leicester have Sheff Weds on Monday, so will likely move to 43 points from 41.
    Portsmouth have Oxford, so could move to 44 and they've played a game less.
    Blackburn have West brom, so could go above us and people were writing them off 3-4 weeks ago.

    Its possible that by Monday night the table could be:

    Blackburn 49 pts
    Charlton 48
    West brom 44
    Portsmouth 44
    ---------------
    Leicester 43
    Oxford 40
    Sheff Weds -6

    That is worst case scenario of course but it does show that we are definitely not safe yet. However 1 more win should be enough, we just need to get it asap to avoid some serious panic setting in. Ideally we need to have safety secured in the next 3 games, as we then have two promotion chasing teams at the Valley and a tricky away game last day of the season. I don't think we want to be heading into the last 3 games still needing a win.

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  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,680
    I had a quick look at the table whilst we were drawing yesterday & we were 10 points clear. If only it had stayed that way.
  • Swindon_Addick
    Swindon_Addick Posts: 1,947
    The BBC's version of the league table has a hand form guide showing teams' last 6 results. With everyone except Pompey having 6 to play, the fact that most clubs have got between 6 and 9 points in their last 6 gives a reasonable indication of what we need to compete with. Another 3 or 4 looks like enough unless everyone improves. Recent form suggests that if Oxford can continue the good run they're on then Leicester and Pompey are the two in most trouble.
  • Crispywood
    Crispywood Posts: 1,782
    I’d only start to panic if we don’t pick up 3 points from our next 3 games. 
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 66,027
    Up to 49 points now and eight clear of danger with only 15 more points up for grabs.

    Highly unlikely that all the teams below us find some form but over a five game span it’s still a small possibility.

    Think we are probably safe as is but would like a couple more points just to make sure.
  • Crispywood
    Crispywood Posts: 1,782
    Charlton- Preston (H) Wednesday (A) 
    Oxford- Watford (H) Derby (A) 
    Leicester- Swansea (H) Pompey (A) 
    Portsmouth- Middlesborough (A) Ipswich (H) Leicester (H) 

    if we pick up just 2 more points in these fixtures than Oxford and Leceister or 3 more points than Portsmouth we’d be mathematically safe with 3 games to go which is a strong possibility based on the difficulty of these games for each side
  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,680
    We’re safe. 
  • Danepak
    Danepak Posts: 1,667
    Bookies had us 80/1 before the Bristol game. Then 33/1 after the game.
    After the Watford draw, we’re back to 80/1.
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 37,066
    Results worked perfectly for us yesterday, although it would've been nice if Sheff Weds had held on.

    Charlton 49 pts
    Blackburn 47
    West Brom 45
    Portsmouth 42
    --------------
    Leicester 41
    Oxford 41
    Sheff Weds -5

    Portsmouth have a game in hand but it's against Ipswich so no guarantee they get anything from it with the form they're in.

    Personally i think we're now safe because it's hard to see Leicester and Oxford suddenly winning 3 of their last 5 games. Leicester have only won 3 of their last 20! Portsmouth also have some tough games as they face all of the top 3. 

    Portsmouth v Leicester on 18 April is absolutely huge.
  • dmccart32
    dmccart32 Posts: 91
    edited April 7
    Portsmouth have a very hard run in:

    Middlesbrough (A)Ipswich Town (H)Leicester City (H)Coventry City (A)Stoke City (A)Birmingham City (H)

    3 out of the top 4!
  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 48,114
    If you are going to be as generous as you can be, you are looking at 9 points from that lot. Wins against Leicester, Stoke and Birmingham. So being as generous as Father Christmas we only need two points. Realistically they are not going to win all three.