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The mathematics of relegation
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Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
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It's a familiar concept to me because I watch baseball and it's used as an official statistic by MLB towards the end of the season when teams are trying to qualify for the playoffs. Since they don't have draws in their sport, it's an easier thing to calculate, it's just the combined total of wins for you and losses for your nearest rival than will result in qualification being confirmed.0
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Thanks for this Rudders. May I ask if it does or can take into account any of the teams playing one another? i.e either one of them drops 3 points or they both drop 2Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
I saw a comment from back in March about Leicester appealling their points deduction. When is the latest the outcome of that could happen? Hopefully not after the final game - it would be unfair if say a team had to draw their last game to stay up so played it safe, only to find out they needed 3 points after all. In fact it could affect how teams play in more than just the last game0 -
So.. what are ya saying?Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.2 -
No, he says For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.PrincessFiona said:
Thanks for this Rudders. May I ask if it does or can take into account any of the teams playing one another? i.e either one of them drops 3 points or they both drop 2Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
I saw a comment from back in March about Leicester appealling their points deduction. When is the latest the outcome of that could happen? Hopefully not after the final game - it would be unfair if say a team had to draw their last game to stay up so played it safe, only to find out they needed 3 points after all. In fact it could affect how teams play in more than just the last game0 -
Although it doesn't take into account games teams play against each other, I don't think that makes a difference because Oxford don't play Leicester. So both can in theory still reach 58. Both of them would have to beat Portsmouth to do that, so after Monday if Oxford beat Pompey then it might be time to look at whether the Portsmouth-Leicester game reduces the target a bit.PrincessFiona said:
Thanks for this Rudders. May I ask if it does or can take into account any of the teams playing one another? i.e either one of them drops 3 points or they both drop 2Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
I saw a comment from back in March about Leicester appealling their points deduction. When is the latest the outcome of that could happen? Hopefully not after the final game - it would be unfair if say a team had to draw their last game to stay up so played it safe, only to find out they needed 3 points after all. In fact it could affect how teams play in more than just the last game0 -
Do we want Pompey to beat Oxford on Monday in that case?Swindon_Addick said:
Although it doesn't take into account games teams play against each other, I don't think that makes a difference because Oxford don't play Leicester. So both can in theory still reach 58. Both of them would have to beat Portsmouth to do that, so after Monday if Oxford beat Pompey then it might be time to look at whether the Portsmouth-Leicester game reduces the target a bit.PrincessFiona said:
Thanks for this Rudders. May I ask if it does or can take into account any of the teams playing one another? i.e either one of them drops 3 points or they both drop 2Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
I saw a comment from back in March about Leicester appealling their points deduction. When is the latest the outcome of that could happen? Hopefully not after the final game - it would be unfair if say a team had to draw their last game to stay up so played it safe, only to find out they needed 3 points after all. In fact it could affect how teams play in more than just the last game0 -
What really would help if Charlton can beat Watford 😀se9addick said:
Do we want Pompey to beat Oxford on Monday in that case?Swindon_Addick said:
Although it doesn't take into account games teams play against each other, I don't think that makes a difference because Oxford don't play Leicester. So both can in theory still reach 58. Both of them would have to beat Portsmouth to do that, so after Monday if Oxford beat Pompey then it might be time to look at whether the Portsmouth-Leicester game reduces the target a bit.PrincessFiona said:
Thanks for this Rudders. May I ask if it does or can take into account any of the teams playing one another? i.e either one of them drops 3 points or they both drop 2Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
I saw a comment from back in March about Leicester appealling their points deduction. When is the latest the outcome of that could happen? Hopefully not after the final game - it would be unfair if say a team had to draw their last game to stay up so played it safe, only to find out they needed 3 points after all. In fact it could affect how teams play in more than just the last game5 -
Swindon_Addick said:
Although it doesn't take into account games teams play against each other, I don't think that makes a difference because Oxford don't play Leicester. So both can in theory still reach 58. Both of them would have to beat Portsmouth to do that, so after Monday if Oxford beat Pompey then it might be time to look at whether the Portsmouth-Leicester game reduces the target a bit.PrincessFiona said:
Thanks for this Rudders. May I ask if it does or can take into account any of the teams playing one another? i.e either one of them drops 3 points or they both drop 2Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
I saw a comment from back in March about Leicester appealling their points deduction. When is the latest the outcome of that could happen? Hopefully not after the final game - it would be unfair if say a team had to draw their last game to stay up so played it safe, only to find out they needed 3 points after all. In fact it could affect how teams play in more than just the last game
This is spot on. Thank you, my Child.
With regard to Portsmouth v Oxford, at the moment a Portsmouth win is preferred. However, it doesn't affect the R number immediately as both Oxford and Leicester are currently the 'critical teams' (because they have identical records when Goal Difference is ignored). The R number is only affected when we score points and/or when the 'third bottom' (critical team) loses points. Of course, if Leicester also drop points (away to Sheff Wed), things get a lot better.
Curiously an Oxford win is not too bad, though, as it then brings Portsmouth to within one point of becoming the 'critical team' and it seems to me that Portsmouth have the toughest run-in of all the relegation candidates. After Oxford, they play Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Leicester, Coventry, Stoke and Birmingham.
This may be why the bookies have Portsmouth as slightly more likely than Leicester to face the drop.
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Thanks for that, much appreciated , it cleared it up in my mind. I was just adding R to the number of current points 🙄!Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.0
