The mathematics of relegation

superclive98 said:

Exiled_Addick said:

Add 1.5 points per game to the totals of the teams below us (ignoring Sheff W). That is the maximum that any would realistically get between now and the end of the season. Even that is a stretch and even more so for all of them to do it, but if we do that, we get final points tallies:

Blackburn 5 games; 47 + 7 or 8 pts = 54 or 55 pts
WBA 5 games; 45 + 7 or 8 pts = 52 or 53 pts
Pompey 6 games; 42 + 9 pts = 51 pts
Leicester 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
Blackburn 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts

So, on 49 points, we are still a touch vulnerable, but more than likely safe as, even though we are limping over the line a bit, I don't see us losing all 5 remaining matches and all those teams picking up as many points as the scenario above. One more draw or a win (which we really should get against Wednesday) and it's done.

Wild card remains Leicester's points deduction appeal still being unresolved but, if this article is accurate and they have actually breached PSR again; if anything, I would have thought and increased penalty may be more likely.

Leicester Have Breached PSR Again as Stefan Borson Analyses Club Accounts

Why 1.5 points per game?
Why not 1.4 or 1.6?
Whatever you choose, they are not all going to achieve it.
Also this thread is about absolutes.

Apologies if I misinterpreted the purpose of the thread.

As to why 1.5 points per game, as @MartinCAFC says, it's an estimate of a realistic maximum points total. 1.5 points per game is roughly equivalent to a couple of wins and one or two draws from everyone's (except Pompey's) remaining fixtures. I think all the teams below us would probably like to think that is doable for them between now and the end of the season, even if it will require an uptick in form.

Additionally, it's something like upper-midtable to lower-playoff type form over the course of a whole season. I think almost any team (except the outlier that is Sheff W, this season) is capable of (and has probably, at some point, achieved) that kind of form over a short burst.

Finally, it is also common for teams down the bottom to pick up a few more points than usual at the very end of the season as the effects of "something still to play for" vs. "already on the beach" start to kick in, and that needs to be factored into any estimated "safe points total".

So, based on my estimate, yes, we are probably just about there now, but not quite at a place where we wouldn't still be at risk if we were to allow complacency to set in and go on a disastrous run of straight defeats. Fortunately for us, we certainly don't have a manager, and probably not a set of players either, who would seem prone to complacency.