According to the Fink Tank Predictor (worth looking at if you are statistically minded), our "expected" points total is now 62. This compares to 75 for both Watford and Palace, who are projected to finish in 5th/6th place in the Fink Tank simulations. Based on the same analysis Peterborough will finish 22nd with 45 points.
Obviously, this stuff should be taken with a large pinch of salt, but the approach is well thought through and, whilst subject to significant random noise (in a statistical sense), does seem to produce sensible results on average.
One way of thinking about what the Fink Tank analysis means is to say that we now need to get 13 more points (from just 18 games) than would be "expected" by a solid mid table side to make the Play-Offs or, alternatively, 17 fewer than now expected to finish in the bottom three.
Its now very unlikely indeed that we won't be playing in the Championship next season.
But then again, burnley have just gone on a run of 3 wins and now on the fringes of the playoffs ...just 3 points in front of us ...anything can happen in this division
I can do better than that predictor - if every club performs as they have done to date, the FINAL table will be exactly as it is now. of course, reality is a bit more subtle than that!
The fact is that when a club gets promoted to the next level everything goes up which includes our financial income which will be a great welcome for us considering we lost so much money in League One.
Even if we did finish 20th in the Premier League we can still improve our squad. If the club did plan well then we can go 2 steps up, it worked well during the Curbishley days so it can work well again.
I really cant understand why some of you don't want promotion. Surely you want Charlton to do well??!?!?????
Many people are confusing reaching the playoffs with actually winning promotion.
The original question was "can we reach the playoffs", not will we win promotion! Remember, 3 out of 4 playoff qualifiers lose out - only one of them gets promoted.
Have we a team capable of reaching 6th place/75 points? Absolutely.
Will we finish in 6th place? Unlikely. given a small squad, and the inevitable injuries and suspensions that every team gets.
However if the team continues to play with the same spirit and togetherness, there's every reason to give it our best shot. It'll be fun! But no expectations.
And if the team is getting results, that neatly removes the fears of our anxious relegation worriers!
Just tried it. Charlton finish in 14th position with 62points and a +2 goal difference. Cardiff first, Middlesbrough 2nd, Leicester, Watford, Hull and Palace (sorry!) in the playoffs. Peterborough, Barnsley and Bristol City relegated.
Many people are confusing reaching the playoffs with actually winning promotion.
The original question was "can we reach the playoffs", not will we win promotion! Remember, 3 out of 4 playoff qualifiers lose out - only one of them gets promoted.
Have we a team capable of reaching 6th place/75 points? Absolutely.
Will we finish in 6th place? Unlikely. given a small squad, and the inevitable injuries and suspensions that every team gets.
However if the team continues to play with the same spirit and togetherness, there's every reason to give it our best shot. It'll be fun! But no expectations.
And if the team is getting results, that neatly removes the fears of our anxious relegation worriers!
;o)
I think it is more aimed at two of the first four posts "don't want to" & "would rather finish where we are" that has most people baffled!
Just tried it. Charlton finish in 14th position with 62points and a +2 goal difference. Cardiff first, Middlesbrough 2nd, Leicester, Watford, Hull and Palace (sorry!) in the playoffs. Peterborough, Barnsley and Bristol City relegated.
The problem with this predictor is that it uses average results over the previous matches. Basically it's going to predict the teams currently at the top to win promotion, the teams 3rd to 6th to win playoff places, and the bottom 3 to get relegated!
What it doesn't take into account is the 'dark horse' winning run (like Reading last season), mid-table teams that will find form and consistancy, any teams that have strengthened or been weakened significantly (transfer/injuries) or the team in late season freefall which manages to get itself relegated against all the odds!
Just tried it. Charlton finish in 14th position with 62points and a +2 goal difference. Cardiff first, Middlesbrough 2nd, Leicester, Watford, Hull and Palace (sorry!) in the playoffs. Peterborough, Barnsley and Bristol City relegated.
The problem with this predictor is that it uses average results over the previous matches. Basically it's going to predict the teams currently at the top to win promotion, the teams 3rd to 6th to win playoff places, and the bottom 3 to get relegated!
What it doesn't take into account is the 'dark horse' winning run (like Reading last season), mid-table teams that will find form and consistancy, any teams that have strengthened or been weakened significantly (transfer/injuries) or the team in late season freefall which manages to get itself relegated against all the odds!
No it doesn't. I just tried it. You put in the scores for all the games (takes about 15 minutes though)
If we reach the playoffs and don't go up we will probably have more expectations next season which I don't want. I don't want other teams taking us more seriously and I don't want fans booing etc every time we lose.
People are actually saying they don't want promotion to the Premier League ! If its such a bad thing lets run a vote
Agree or disagree :
I want Palace and Millwall to win promotion to the Premier League this season
Absolutely disagree. I want Palace and Millwall to go into a spiral of decline the like of which has never been seen before in world football. I don't want either of them to ever win a match again. In fact the only time I'd like to see one of them get a point is when they play each other every season as they battle out bore-draw derby matches in progressively lower divisions.
My keen sense of schadenfrude would be greatly hightened if, whilst this magnificent disaster started to unfold, we made the play-offs.
The original question was, "can we reach the playoffs", in other words, 6th place.....?
It's not beyond us or any of half a dozen teams in the top half/midtable. But finishing 6th doesn't guarantee us promotion, just the worst seeded play off place.
Talk of playing in the Premier League and the huge challenges that entails is a bit premature. Finishing 6th just makes promotion possible, rather than probable.
But meanwhile, we would have to put a better run together than any of the 7 teams immediately above us. Possible ........ but not probable.
But if we did finish 6th, then we would have had a very good and enjoyable run. Let's drink to that first!
The original question was, "can we reach the playoffs", in other words, 6th place.....?
It's not beyond us or any of half a dozen teams in the top half/midtable. But finishing 6th doesn't guarantee us promotion, just the worst seeded play off place.
Talk of playing in the Premier League and the huge challenges that entails is a bit premature. Finishing 6th just makes promotion possible, rather than probable.
But meanwhile, we would have to put a better run together than any of the 7 teams immediately above us. Possible ........ but not probable.
But if we did finish 6th, then we would have had a very good and enjoyable run. Let's drink to that first!
ok, so it could be 3 points with them having a game in hand then. Lets beat Wednesday first, but it doesn't take much to pull points back - which is my main point. This is a league where lots of teams take points off each other so you put a run together and you will climb the table.
Be great if we got in the playoffs - to do that we'd need to win a lot of games which in itself will be great and the play offs are exciting which is surely what we all want when we go to a match. The going up is the good bit - losing most week's once you've gone up is the shitty bit but worth it for the buzz we'd have getting there. All this we're not ready stuff - course we're not but who cares - if nothing else, we'd bag millions.
dont know what the players would make make of reading these comments. we do look a bit short of class compared to a few sides but have shown we can compete with most. cant understand anyone not wanting to make the play offs thought that was what we were striving for.
Comments
Even if we did finish 20th in the Premier League we can still improve our squad. If the club did plan well then we can go 2 steps up, it worked well during the Curbishley days so it can work well again.
I really cant understand why some of you don't want promotion. Surely you want Charlton to do well??!?!?????
The original question was "can we reach the playoffs", not will we win promotion!
Remember, 3 out of 4 playoff qualifiers lose out - only one of them gets promoted.
Have we a team capable of reaching 6th place/75 points?
Absolutely.
Will we finish in 6th place?
Unlikely. given a small squad, and the inevitable injuries and suspensions that every team gets.
However if the team continues to play with the same spirit and togetherness, there's every reason to give it our best shot. It'll be fun!
But no expectations.
And if the team is getting results, that neatly removes the fears of our anxious relegation worriers!
;o)
Whatever will be will be
SCP will just get the team focused 1 game at a time not look to far ahead
And as fans we should do the same
The ambition this season should have been and should still be to consolidate
If we get there start to believe however the 5 points we are off seems close but it is a large gap and there are others better placed already
It wasn't long ago on here people were saying where's the next win coming from
Basically it's going to predict the teams currently at the top to win promotion, the teams 3rd to 6th to win playoff places, and the bottom 3 to get relegated!
What it doesn't take into account is the 'dark horse' winning run (like Reading last season), mid-table teams that will find form and consistancy, any teams that have strengthened or been weakened significantly (transfer/injuries) or the team in late season freefall which manages to get itself relegated against all the odds!
My keen sense of schadenfrude would be greatly hightened if, whilst this magnificent disaster started to unfold, we made the play-offs.
It does in deed thats why i used it
It's not beyond us or any of half a dozen teams in the top half/midtable.
But finishing 6th doesn't guarantee us promotion, just the worst seeded play off place.
Talk of playing in the Premier League and the huge challenges that entails is a bit premature.
Finishing 6th just makes promotion possible, rather than probable.
But meanwhile, we would have to put a better run together than any of the 7 teams immediately above us.
Possible ........ but not probable.
But if we did finish 6th, then we would have had a very good and enjoyable run.
Let's drink to that first!
It's not beyond us or any of half a dozen teams in the top half/midtable.
But finishing 6th doesn't guarantee us promotion, just the worst seeded play off place.
Talk of playing in the Premier League and the huge challenges that entails is a bit premature.
Finishing 6th just makes promotion possible, rather than probable.
But meanwhile, we would have to put a better run together than any of the 7 teams immediately above us.
Possible ........ but not probable.
But if we did finish 6th, then we would have had a very good and enjoyable run.
Let's drink to that first!
Twice!
Must have had double approval from the censors in the Ivory Tower!
Mind you if anyone was to drop out it would be Palace so sure you'll love to finish about them!
I would love it , love it i tell ya.
Also, great comment there Shearer: 'Be great if we got in the playoffs - to do that we'd need to win a lot of games'