I already backed Teaforthree to win at various prices between 20/1 & 25/1. Tomorrow i will fight my way through the once a year mob and do Teaforthree to beat Cappa Bleu and Balthazar King in two forecasts and two tricasts.
Very sad indeed about Josh. He was due to retire after the Topham. I fear that, despite watering and contrary to what the Aintree authorities promised (that we would never see another “quick-ground National”), the going is getting quicker and it is shaping up for another time faster than standard tomorrow. The Going-Stick reading for the GN course reported by Turftrax and the Racing Post yesterday of 6.3 was actually taken on Wednesday and the reading taken yesterday morning was 6.0. The reading taken this morning was 6.2, which confirms that it has got quicker in the last 24 hours, despite watering last night. The time of yesterday’s Foxhunter suggests the going was an equal mix of Good and GS. The official time of the Topham today was 5m30secs and suggests that the ground is now Good (GS places) – the same as the official description of the going before the Off of the GN last year. With a dry and sunny day forecast tomorrow, even if they water meaningfully tonight, we will probably see for a 4th year running a time that is faster than standard in the GN tomorrow. The blokes running Aintree are idiots IMHO but that's another story. Apart from fearing the consequences in terms of injuries and worse, a Good ground National does alter the algorithm (slightly) for the model and has some impact on its selections, fortunately not for the top 2. • Teaforthree and Cappa Bleu unaffected - (both the best Win candidates, in that order) • Swing Bill drops to a place candidate on Good ground, according to the model, rated equal with Join Together and Ballabriggs (all joint 3rd) – all c. 25L behind T43 • Next (a further 5L back) comes Major Malarkey, rated joint 6th with Seabass and On His Own. • Tarquinius drops out of the picture altogether I’m afraid (he was marginal on Gd/GS mix but has no chance on effectively Good ground). At least he was a relatively cheap position to now write off. I may be getting a bit cowardly but with conditions less favourable to Swing Bill and more favourable to the performance of 8 year-olds in the GN, I am going to add Join Together to my betting slip, in the event that misfortune befalls both T43 and Cappa Bleu. Though the model rates them equal, I prefer him to Ballabriggs since he has more potential to surprise on the upside (and no GN winner since Bindaree has even won another race, let alone another GN). To minimise dilution of returns, I am going to back him e/w 5 places with Paddy Power at 20s rather than at the mean 16s offered by BetVictor. So, having written off Tarquinius, my ticket now reads (all each-way): TEAFORTHREE CAPPA BLEU SWING BILL JOIN TOGETHER MAJOR MALARKEY (6 places) I am indeed shooting for a “Michael Dickinson” 1~5.
Respect the time and effort you put into your model peanuts and have followed your comments for past couple years.
I tend to profile the big handicap races myself and then put a shortlist of normally three or four horses into an exacta - always on tote never CSF. Rarely do I have an individual bet to win.
I had my biggest win ever this week in the Irish National when a 50/1 shot beat 25/1 so be interested to see how my shortlist gets on against yours tomorrow.
We have one in common in T43 and in no specific order others are Rare Bob; Joncol; Roberto Goldback; Big Fella and Chicago Grey. Sometime tomorrow I will reduce them to 4 or 5 at most.
Last year I had the winner and the runner up, then half hour later Charlton got promoted at Carlisle. I suspect it won't be such a good afternoon again !
Whatever the outcome, I just want to say a massive thank you to Peanuts. You have singularly increased my interest in the GN tenfold over the last few years through your brilliant analysis and fascination in your 'model'. This is always one of the most popular threads on here, and I thank you on behalf of everyone for your dedication and enthusiasm.
Meister Eckhart placed yesterday turned £100 staked into total return of £164 yesterday so decent day for a change. Cross with myself that I decided not to bet on Legacy Gold in the last race which romped home @ 9-1. Grrrrrrrrrr. Fingers crossed for us all for today. Peanuts will either owe or be owed lots of drinks before Charlton have thumped Leeds. My Skybet £5 free-bets have gone on Michael Morrison (first and/or last scorer) at a too tempting price of 33-1. C'mon Michael.
I had a bad day yesterday did a Lucky 15 e/w on Little Josh, Rocky Creek, Road to Riches and Cotton Mill.....not a bean back!! Sad about Little Josh though, no horse should die in my opinion............lets hope, as others have said, all 40 horses make it back home safe today, I did Synchronize last year, hope I don't jinx any today. I'm going with Peanuts selections and adding Colbert Station..........good luck everyone and safe journey to all 40.
Peanuts lets hope your Aintree tips are better than your Irish ones were. Just glad one didn't start. LOL
You're such an ungrateful Dude Abs..... ;o) Irish and Welsh a quick and dirty elimination method, the GN system is a little different. Nonetheless, will draw a complete blank some year for sure and apologies in advance (especially if any are following my model for the first time and haven't had some returns from it previously) if this is that year. Every GN is different and this is a little weird with just the 2 now in the "strong fit" camp. Somewhat unnerving given how chaotic the race can be but at least there's a couple of long shots, hopefully to add a bit of spice. I have to say I'm apprehensive about the going and just pray this race is remembered for all the right reasons. Best of luck.
Last year I had the winner and the runner up, then half hour later Charlton got promoted at Carlisle. I suspect it won't be such a good afternoon again !
Whatever the outcome, I just want to say a massive thank you to Peanuts. You have singularly increased my interest in the GN tenfold over the last few years through your brilliant analysis and fascination in your 'model'. This is always one of the most popular threads on here, and I thank you on behalf of everyone for your dedication and enthusiasm.
Meister Eckhart placed yesterday turned £100 staked into total return of £164 yesterday so decent day for a change. Cross with myself that I decided not to bet on Legacy Gold in the last race which romped home @ 9-1. Grrrrrrrrrr. Fingers crossed for us all for today. Peanuts will either owe or be owed lots of drinks before Charlton have thumped Leeds. My Skybet £5 free-bets have gone on Michael Morrison (first and/or last scorer) at a too tempting price of 33-1. C'mon Michael.
I had a bad day yesterday did a Lucky 15 e/w on Little Josh, Rocky Creek, Road to Riches and Cotton Mill.....not a bean back!! Sad about Little Josh though, no horse should die in my opinion............lets hope, as others have said, all 40 horses make it back home safe today, I did Synchronize last year, hope I don't jinx any today. I'm going with Peanuts selections and adding Colbert Station..........good luck everyone and safe journey to all 40.
Cheers for the vote of confidence chaps. Fingers crossed. Fascinating runner Colbert Station. With the ground drying, assuming Sunnyhillboy is fit and well, you'd have thought AP would have leant towards Jonjo's horse. Must really fancy Colbert Station. Best of luck.
Good luck everyone and thanks to Peanuts and all others who have kept me entertained with their tips and discussion which tbh has been above my head most of the time...
Not a betting man usually but have an interest and my e/w bets over the last couple of weeks online have been fun AND as far as I can add up, I am still ahead before today.
Comments
unfortunately did'nt spot your post sralan...drat darn etc etc
or did he fall in the 14.30
I fear that, despite watering and contrary to what the Aintree authorities promised (that we would never see another “quick-ground National”), the going is getting quicker and it is shaping up for another time faster than standard tomorrow.
The Going-Stick reading for the GN course reported by Turftrax and the Racing Post yesterday of 6.3 was actually taken on Wednesday and the reading taken yesterday morning was 6.0. The reading taken this morning was 6.2, which confirms that it has got quicker in the last 24 hours, despite watering last night.
The time of yesterday’s Foxhunter suggests the going was an equal mix of Good and GS. The official time of the Topham today was 5m30secs and suggests that the ground is now Good (GS places) – the same as the official description of the going before the Off of the GN last year.
With a dry and sunny day forecast tomorrow, even if they water meaningfully tonight, we will probably see for a 4th year running a time that is faster than standard in the GN tomorrow. The blokes running Aintree are idiots IMHO but that's another story.
Apart from fearing the consequences in terms of injuries and worse, a Good ground National does alter the algorithm (slightly) for the model and has some impact on its selections, fortunately not for the top 2.
• Teaforthree and Cappa Bleu unaffected - (both the best Win candidates, in that order)
• Swing Bill drops to a place candidate on Good ground, according to the model, rated equal with Join Together and Ballabriggs (all joint 3rd) – all c. 25L behind T43
• Next (a further 5L back) comes Major Malarkey, rated joint 6th with Seabass and On His Own.
• Tarquinius drops out of the picture altogether I’m afraid (he was marginal on Gd/GS mix but has no chance on effectively Good ground). At least he was a relatively cheap position to now write off.
I may be getting a bit cowardly but with conditions less favourable to Swing Bill and more favourable to the performance of 8 year-olds in the GN, I am going to add Join Together to my betting slip, in the event that misfortune befalls both T43 and Cappa Bleu.
Though the model rates them equal, I prefer him to Ballabriggs since he has more potential to surprise on the upside (and no GN winner since Bindaree has even won another race, let alone another GN). To minimise dilution of returns, I am going to back him e/w 5 places with Paddy Power at 20s rather than at the mean 16s offered by BetVictor. So, having written off Tarquinius, my ticket now reads (all each-way):
TEAFORTHREE
CAPPA BLEU
SWING BILL
JOIN TOGETHER
MAJOR MALARKEY (6 places)
I am indeed shooting for a “Michael Dickinson” 1~5.
I tend to profile the big handicap races myself and then put a shortlist of normally three or four horses into an exacta - always on tote never CSF. Rarely do I have an individual bet to win.
I had my biggest win ever this week in the Irish National when a 50/1 shot beat 25/1 so be interested to see how my shortlist gets on against yours tomorrow.
We have one in common in T43 and in no specific order others are Rare Bob; Joncol; Roberto Goldback; Big Fella and Chicago Grey. Sometime tomorrow I will reduce them to 4 or 5 at most.
Bon Chance and pray all 40 return safe.
Cheers AddicktedOne,
Nice one at Fairyhouse and good luck tomorrow. An interesting portfolio.
All the best.
Cappa Bleu
Chicago Grey
Rare Bob
Saints are
Ballabriggs
Always waining
Cappa Bleu
Imperial Commander
plus Harry the viking, Always Waining and Treacle all e/w
Lets hope they (jock and horses) all get back in one piece
I want to do all 3 to finish in 1,2,3
in any order how would I ask for that bet
Last year I had the winner and the runner up, then half hour later Charlton got promoted at Carlisle. I suspect it won't be such a good afternoon again !
Whatever the outcome, I just want to say a massive thank you to Peanuts. You have singularly increased my interest in the GN tenfold over the last few years through your brilliant analysis and fascination in your 'model'. This is always one of the most popular threads on here, and I thank you on behalf of everyone for your dedication and enthusiasm.
Lots hope for a bit of luck this afternoon !
Irish and Welsh a quick and dirty elimination method, the GN system is a little different.
Nonetheless, will draw a complete blank some year for sure and apologies in advance (especially if any are following my model for the first time and haven't had some returns from it previously) if this is that year.
Every GN is different and this is a little weird with just the 2 now in the "strong fit" camp. Somewhat unnerving given how chaotic the race can be but at least there's a couple of long shots, hopefully to add a bit of spice.
I have to say I'm apprehensive about the going and just pray this race is remembered for all the right reasons.
Best of luck.
Too kind.
Good luck to all.
Fascinating runner Colbert Station. With the ground drying, assuming Sunnyhillboy is fit and well, you'd have thought AP would have leant towards Jonjo's horse. Must really fancy Colbert Station.
Best of luck.
Not a betting man usually but have an interest and my e/w bets over the last couple of weeks online have been fun AND as far as I can add up, I am still ahead before today.