Chunes, chunes, chunes.........know the feeling mate. I've missed plenty of long shot 5th places in the GN over the years (Feels Like Gold, Spotthedifference and even Hello Bud, who I tipped on here in 2010). Finally got it through my skull that, even if over time it made little difference to returns, for me at least it was far better accept lower odds and go 5 places (now 6 courtesy of Vic) than kicking myself for missing out..........kept falling over for a start ;o)
This is the second time i have listened to your wise words and won.
Several beers need tp be aimed in your direction
You're too kind Chief, Tell you what, if you feel like I've earned a beer (indeed if anyone else does), if you're not already a member of the CA Supporters Trust, instead PLEASE give serious consideration to signing up for the Supporters Trust. I'm a paid-up member (though regrettably, through time constraints, a passive one) and strongly believe that Barney and the guys behind the Trust are building something that could prove really important for all Addicks in years (maybe even months) to come. They really deserve a lot of credit and all the support we can muster. Naturally, the more that sign up the more powerful a voice it can be. Cheers.
I have to add my congrats too Peanuts. Your portfolio certainly had better results than mine but given the price of the winner it was always going to be about place money. I was interested in the winning owners comments afterwards - "It was only meant to be a day out and that he would come back safe and sound". I certainly had him down as a social runner and had dismissed him for that reason; so at least its owner agreed with me!
Too kind AddicktedOne, T43 and Rare Bob did well for your boys aswell so congrats to you too. The winner was well off my radar screen........but I'm gonna get to the bottom of why (after I've given my PC a breather - it's creaking a bit!).
Cheers pal Glad you enjoy it and even gladder it paid off again. I fancied there was the chance of us enjoying another "Mon Mome year" this time. Thought it might be Bill or the Major if the Welsh boys came a cropper. Shame to miss the winner but the team done good thankfully (both teams of course). All the best.
Thanks Peanuts. I backed your original selections E/W on Bet365 to 5 places. So Tofino Bay stake returned. Tarquinius a creditable 8th, as the going changed. Swing Bill 6th. But T43 & CP returned some dosh so I won £7.50 :-) All good fun & thanks again.
Sorry about that Chief. When I posted the original selections BetVictor were only 4 places so I suggested (and did myself) Bet365. I doubled up later when Vic went 6 so at least I got something for him. That's at least 2 years BetVictor have paid 6 places it now (I think it may be more) and since, apart from their SE London clientele, not many will have been on him, you'd have to reckon they were comfortably net winners by going the extra place. Therefore you'd suppose they'll do it again next year. So I think I'll caution to wait on long-shots in anticipation. It's always difficult if they are due to run, in case they go well and the price collapses though. Glad you came out ahead at least and cheers for the kind comment and vote of confidence.
Well done Peanuts, once again a class above. I did T43 and Cappa Bleu as my main choices ante post and then earlier in the week, really fancied the latter especially also had Join Together and Balthazar and added Swing Bill to the slip entirely on your recommendation alone and I think he gave me more profit than any of them!
No doubt that in terms of individual knowledge and shrewdness these National threads of yours are the best CL has to offer.
Well done Peanuts, once again a class above. I did T43 and Cappa Bleu as my main choices ante post and then earlier in the week, really fancied the latter especially also had Join Together and Balthazar and added Swing Bill to the slip entirely on your recommendation alone and I think he gave me more profit than any of them!
No doubt that in terms of individual knowledge and shrewdness these National threads of yours are the best CL has to offer.
Cheers ISLS, Too kind but much appreciated. Very glad you added Bill to the others. Have to confess watching him labour home at Cheltenham I was asking myself was I completely bananas to plug him for Aintree. Just got to go with the system, however unfancied the selections are. In fact, of course, when they do score (even with a place) that's what really makes it fun. All the best.
GOING & TIME The G-Stick reading in the morning was 6.0, compared to 6.2 on Friday, so clearly they had watered aggressively Friday evening, for which they deserve credit since this surely contributed to the safe return of all 40 runners……...the best result of the day. So too did the move of the start away from the enclosures, facilitating a much calmer start (first-time, thankfully). The lack of frenzy before and at the Off undoubtedly contributed to a more sensible pace to the race from the outset – all 40 runners clearing Bechers has to be a record surely? Perhaps also the poorish runs of so many of the “better” horses at the top of the handicap (see below) took something off the speed. In any event, contrary to my fears, the time clocked was 8 secs slower than standard (10 secs slower in old money over 36f). That was more or less consistent with the Official Going of GS(Gd) - I made it more like Gd(GS) but in the same ballpark – unlike the last 3 GNs when the going was officially Gd(GS) but the times were all faster than std, normally indicative of faster than Good and IMHO contributing to the fatalities of the 2011 and 2012 GNs. Again, great credit to the Aintree authorities.
SOME KEY STATS & CORRELATIONS PROVEN AGAIN I will be posting a review (for any fellow saddo out there) when I’ve figured out how Aurora’s Encore crept under my radar screen and, if it’s possible, explained stats-wise those performances that were materially above or below expectations. However, the robustness of a few stats was proven once again:
• It may be counter-intuitive but being “fresh” for the GN, if that means having the last run before the weights were announced (about 60 days prior), is a definite NEGATIVE. All 17 finishers bar 1 (Balthazar King, 15th 91L) had had their last run (even if it was a PU) less than 50 days prior.
• None of the 4 with only 1 run in the season (incl. On His Own and Imperial Commander) completed.
• Stamina rules OK. The first 4 home had won or been placed in a chase of 4m+. The first 6 home had all done likewise in a Class 1 of 3.25m+.
• Strong correlation with Welsh National continued with 2nd and 3rd having been placed in the Chepstow marathon (both on heavy).
• 7 & 8 year olds failed to make the frame once again – Soll doing the best of the six to run, finishing 7th 44L
WEIGHTS & ODDS Interestingly, this was a “pre-compression” GN result, with only 1 of the first 11 home carrying 11.00+ (15 runners carried 11.00+), made possible by the fact that, after the withdrawals of Tidal Bay and Albert’s Run: • Of the 3 remaining runners “favoured” by the handicapper, all had interrupted campaigns and/or missed preps or simply poor seasons; and • The 4lb rise in weights changed the task for several former GN heroes from tough-assignment to mission-impossible (especially Seabass, Sunnyhillboy, Ballabriggs and Big Fella Thanks). Arguably, it may also have just tipped the balance against T43 getting home (the only 11.00+ runner in the first 11). Since the market had acclimatized in recent years to 11.00+ winners, it readily had 3 of the front 4 in the market carrying 11.03+. While this by no means made a long-shot victory a likelihood, it certainly opened the door wider to one than it had been in the previous 3 years. Duly: • 3 of the first 6 were 66/1 or longer; and • Only 2 of the front 8 in the market at the Off were in the first 12 home (T43 and Cappa Bleu).
So there we have it. Another Grand National - a shock winner but thankfully no shocks of the awful kind, other than discovering that there is a link on a Millwall forum to this thread ;o) More stat-analysis to come in due course.
Thanks from me too Peanuts. Followed your tips plus added Oscar Time for Mrs Meldrew and Rare Bob for my mum so shouldn't complain. My only regret was £10 each way on Swing Bill with Bet365 rather than Betvictor which paid out 6 places which (@80-1) cost me a gutting £200. That's a lesson learnt for the future; hold on for the 6 places option. Gotta say, I'm so impressed with your model. Cheers Buddy!
Thanks from me too Peanuts. Followed your tips plus added Oscar Time for Mrs Meldrew and Rare Bob for my mum so shouldn't complain. My only regret was £10 each way on Swing Bill with Bet365 rather than Betvictor which paid out 6 places which (@80-1) cost me a gutting £200. That's a lesson learnt for the future; hold on for the 6 places option. Gotta say, I'm so impressed with your model. Cheers Buddy!
Most kind Chief, but strewth, you had 2~6th between you? Many congrats indeed............I may have to ask you to stand in for me next spring if Mrs Molloy insists on the "Jewels of the Med" cruise she's been eyeing up! Cheers.
It shows the dedication bordering on fanaticism of these jump jockeys. Yesterday he was riding the winner of THE most famous NH Race, today he is at Hexham in the Northumberland wilds, back to riding second division courses. I hope that Mania is OK (maniac is possibly a more appropriate name for him). He recently 'retired' and made a comeback. I wonder if after this happening he will call it a day for good. Whatever, he will always be remembered as a GN winner. Get well soon Ryan Mania
I definitely want to make some kind of donation as without your model i would have never backed swing bill. So i will join the trust as u requested...do they take international transfers?
Also should we both be at the same game i shall contact you and insist on buying you a beer or five!
I definitely want to make some kind of donation as without your model i would have never backed swing bill. So i will join the trust as u requested...do they take international transfers?
Also should we both be at the same game i shall contact you and insist on buying you a beer or five!
That's brilliant Chief. Many thanks. I'll ask the guys at the Trust to let you know about an international transfer. In light of your generosity I shall make a donation of part of my winnings to the Trust myself. Distance and commitments mean I don't get to many games these days but if there's a chance to meet up I'd love to share a sherbet or two. Cheers and all the best.
@PeanutsMolloy great thread as usual, used your tips and my paddy power account now looks alot healthier due to T43. Ended Saturday night at Crayford dogs about £30 up so what with the 3 points it was a top day all round
Great thread once again and always one fo the most enjoyable.
Thats a good idea Peanuts, maybe we should all donate a slice of our winnings to the Trust? Be interesting for your analysis of Auroras Encore too.
Cheers prez.
There's a number of folk who've very kindly suggested I've earned a beer this or in earlier years and I guess many may already be, like me, members of the Supporters Trust. If so, I imagine the Trust could do with whatever extra finance they can muster and I'm sufficiently in the money this year to be very happy to donate some of the winnings to it. Above all, to be as strong a voice and organisation as possible they need membership. So, if anyone has kindly offered me a celebratory ale who isn't a member of the Trust, please give serious consideration to joining up, like top man calydon_road. It's only about the cost of a beer or two to join what could be a very important organisation for all CA supporters in the not distance future.
Re Aurora's Encore, I'm on the case and getting quite confident of solving the mystery. WIll take a while to back-test the "tweak" but watch this space. Quite interesting........well, if you're a fellow saddo it is ;o)
@PeanutsMolloy great thread as usual, used your tips and my paddy power account now looks alot healthier due to T43. Ended Saturday night at Crayford dogs about £30 up so what with the 3 points it was a top day all round
Great thread once again and always one fo the most enjoyable.
Many thanks Elthamaddick, Delighted you relieved Ladbrokes of some of their GN profits aswell as PP. A good day indeed. All the best.
Peanuts thanks for your wonderful thread. Found it a very interesting race where most things turned out as id expected apart from the winner who I never even considered. The winner obviously loved the ground and course; winging the last and charging away. Cappa ran almost the same time as previous year. Timings were interesting as slower than the last two years in a slightly shorter race suggested dead ground and staying test. Didn't catch the jockey comments from the 2nd and 3rd but would be interested to know them. Mania rode a blinder that's for sure striking at the right time. Weight or non staying seemed to account for most of the other principals. looking forward to your summary.
Well done PM. Would be interested in your analysis of the winner. Great story. The bookies must be happy, as few have the PM model to show a profit. Think T43 would have won it but for ploughing through the last fence.
Got 2 free 50 bets (Ladbrooks @ 16-1 and Betfred at 22-1 on T43) later lasts past Scottish national so a tip always appreciated. Swing Bill was a great spot, actually they all were. KUTGW ;-)
Peanuts thanks for your wonderful thread. Found it a very interesting race where most things turned out as id expected apart from the winner who I never even considered. The winner obviously loved the ground and course; winging the last and charging away. Cappa ran almost the same time as previous year. Timings were interesting as slower than the last two years in a slightly shorter race suggested dead ground and staying test. Didn't catch the jockey comments from the 2nd and 3rd but would be interested to know them. Mania rode a blinder that's for sure striking at the right time. Weight or non staying seemed to account for most of the other principals. looking forward to your summary.
Very kind oldbloke but everyone posting their thoughts and tips here go to make it what it is; above all, a real fun thread to be involved with. Agree with your comments. It was a very interesting and, for "the compression-years", a most unusual race indeed. The facts are: (a) the winner carried less weight than any since Bobbyjo in 1992 and (b) only 1 of the 15 runners carrying 11.00+ finished in the first 11. Clearly the key to the winner is his close 2nd in the Scot Nat and liking for spring ground but, as I mentioned yesterday, once the weights had gone up, the opportunity for an unfancied, lightly-weighted winner certainly increased - perversely, the compression of the handicap IMHO helped to facilitate it. It will take a while to work through stats-wise but I will, in due course, post my conclusions and describe what tweaks I've made to the model. Cheers.
Comments
Finally got it through my skull that, even if over time it made little difference to returns, for me at least it was far better accept lower odds and go 5 places (now 6 courtesy of Vic) than kicking myself for missing out..........kept falling over for a start ;o)
Thanks for the vote of confidence from you and LLG.
All the best.
A great Saturday. Here's to next year..
Tell you what, if you feel like I've earned a beer (indeed if anyone else does), if you're not already a member of the CA Supporters Trust, instead PLEASE give serious consideration to signing up for the Supporters Trust. I'm a paid-up member (though regrettably, through time constraints, a passive one) and strongly believe that Barney and the guys behind the Trust are building something that could prove really important for all Addicks in years (maybe even months) to come. They really deserve a lot of credit and all the support we can muster.
Naturally, the more that sign up the more powerful a voice it can be.
Cheers.
a good day all round.
Your portfolio certainly had better results than mine but given the price of the winner it was always going to be about place money.
I was interested in the winning owners comments afterwards - "It was only meant to be a day out and that he would come back safe and sound".
I certainly had him down as a social runner and had dismissed him for that reason; so at least its owner agreed with me!
T43 and Rare Bob did well for your boys aswell so congrats to you too.
The winner was well off my radar screen........but I'm gonna get to the bottom of why (after I've given my PC a breather - it's creaking a bit!).
You're going to have to come into the Lib one day for all these drinks I keep promising you.
I don't follow horse racing but you make it so much more interesting for me every year, thanks again.
Glad you enjoy it and even gladder it paid off again.
I fancied there was the chance of us enjoying another "Mon Mome year" this time. Thought it might be Bill or the Major if the Welsh boys came a cropper. Shame to miss the winner but the team done good thankfully (both teams of course).
All the best.
All good fun & thanks again.
That's at least 2 years BetVictor have paid 6 places it now (I think it may be more) and since, apart from their SE London clientele, not many will have been on him, you'd have to reckon they were comfortably net winners by going the extra place. Therefore you'd suppose they'll do it again next year. So I think I'll caution to wait on long-shots in anticipation. It's always difficult if they are due to run, in case they go well and the price collapses though.
Glad you came out ahead at least and cheers for the kind comment and vote of confidence.
No doubt that in terms of individual knowledge and shrewdness these National threads of yours are the best CL has to offer.
Too kind but much appreciated.
Very glad you added Bill to the others. Have to confess watching him labour home at Cheltenham I was asking myself was I completely bananas to plug him for Aintree. Just got to go with the system, however unfancied the selections are. In fact, of course, when they do score (even with a place) that's what really makes it fun.
All the best.
GOING & TIME
The G-Stick reading in the morning was 6.0, compared to 6.2 on Friday, so clearly they had watered aggressively Friday evening, for which they deserve credit since this surely contributed to the safe return of all 40 runners……...the best result of the day.
So too did the move of the start away from the enclosures, facilitating a much calmer start (first-time, thankfully). The lack of frenzy before and at the Off undoubtedly contributed to a more sensible pace to the race from the outset – all 40 runners clearing Bechers has to be a record surely?
Perhaps also the poorish runs of so many of the “better” horses at the top of the handicap (see below) took something off the speed. In any event, contrary to my fears, the time clocked was 8 secs slower than standard (10 secs slower in old money over 36f). That was more or less consistent with the Official Going of GS(Gd) - I made it more like Gd(GS) but in the same ballpark – unlike the last 3 GNs when the going was officially Gd(GS) but the times were all faster than std, normally indicative of faster than Good and IMHO contributing to the fatalities of the 2011 and 2012 GNs.
Again, great credit to the Aintree authorities.
SOME KEY STATS & CORRELATIONS PROVEN AGAIN
I will be posting a review (for any fellow saddo out there) when I’ve figured out how Aurora’s Encore crept under my radar screen and, if it’s possible, explained stats-wise those performances that were materially above or below expectations.
However, the robustness of a few stats was proven once again:
• It may be counter-intuitive but being “fresh” for the GN, if that means having the last run before the weights were announced (about 60 days prior), is a definite NEGATIVE. All 17 finishers bar 1 (Balthazar King, 15th 91L) had had their last run (even if it was a PU) less than 50 days prior.
• None of the 4 with only 1 run in the season (incl. On His Own and Imperial Commander) completed.
• Stamina rules OK. The first 4 home had won or been placed in a chase of 4m+. The first 6 home had all done likewise in a Class 1 of 3.25m+.
• Strong correlation with Welsh National continued with 2nd and 3rd having been placed in the Chepstow marathon (both on heavy).
• 7 & 8 year olds failed to make the frame once again – Soll doing the best of the six to run, finishing 7th 44L
WEIGHTS & ODDS
Interestingly, this was a “pre-compression” GN result, with only 1 of the first 11 home carrying 11.00+ (15 runners carried 11.00+), made possible by the fact that, after the withdrawals of Tidal Bay and Albert’s Run:
• Of the 3 remaining runners “favoured” by the handicapper, all had interrupted campaigns and/or missed preps or simply poor seasons; and
• The 4lb rise in weights changed the task for several former GN heroes from tough-assignment to mission-impossible (especially Seabass, Sunnyhillboy, Ballabriggs and Big Fella Thanks). Arguably, it may also have just tipped the balance against T43 getting home (the only 11.00+ runner in the first 11).
Since the market had acclimatized in recent years to 11.00+ winners, it readily had 3 of the front 4 in the market carrying 11.03+. While this by no means made a long-shot victory a likelihood, it certainly opened the door wider to one than it had been in the previous 3 years. Duly:
• 3 of the first 6 were 66/1 or longer; and
• Only 2 of the front 8 in the market at the Off were in the first 12 home (T43 and Cappa Bleu).
So there we have it. Another Grand National - a shock winner but thankfully no shocks of the awful kind, other than discovering that there is a link on a Millwall forum to this thread ;o)
More stat-analysis to come in due course.
but strewth, you had 2~6th between you? Many congrats indeed............I may have to ask you to stand in for me next spring if Mrs Molloy insists on the "Jewels of the Med" cruise she's been eyeing up!
Cheers.
I definitely want to make some kind of donation as without your model i would have never backed swing bill. So i will join the trust as u requested...do they take international transfers?
Also should we both be at the same game i shall contact you and insist on buying you a beer or five!
In light of your generosity I shall make a donation of part of my winnings to the Trust myself.
Distance and commitments mean I don't get to many games these days but if there's a chance to meet up I'd love to share a sherbet or two.
Cheers and all the best.
Be interesting for your analysis of Auroras Encore too.
Great thread once again and always one fo the most enjoyable.
There's a number of folk who've very kindly suggested I've earned a beer this or in earlier years and I guess many may already be, like me, members of the Supporters Trust. If so, I imagine the Trust could do with whatever extra finance they can muster and I'm sufficiently in the money this year to be very happy to donate some of the winnings to it.
Above all, to be as strong a voice and organisation as possible they need membership. So, if anyone has kindly offered me a celebratory ale who isn't a member of the Trust, please give serious consideration to joining up, like top man calydon_road.
It's only about the cost of a beer or two to join what could be a very important organisation for all CA supporters in the not distance future.
Re Aurora's Encore, I'm on the case and getting quite confident of solving the mystery. WIll take a while to back-test the "tweak" but watch this space. Quite interesting........well, if you're a fellow saddo it is ;o)
Delighted you relieved Ladbrokes of some of their GN profits aswell as PP. A good day indeed.
All the best.
The bookies must be happy, as few have the PM model to show a profit.
Think T43 would have won it but for ploughing through the last fence.
Got 2 free 50 bets (Ladbrooks @ 16-1 and Betfred at 22-1 on T43) later lasts past Scottish national so a tip always appreciated. Swing Bill was a great spot, actually they all were. KUTGW ;-)
Agree with your comments. It was a very interesting and, for "the compression-years", a most unusual race indeed. The facts are: (a) the winner carried less weight than any since Bobbyjo in 1992 and (b) only 1 of the 15 runners carrying 11.00+ finished in the first 11. Clearly the key to the winner is his close 2nd in the Scot Nat and liking for spring ground but, as I mentioned yesterday, once the weights had gone up, the opportunity for an unfancied, lightly-weighted winner certainly increased - perversely, the compression of the handicap IMHO helped to facilitate it.
It will take a while to work through stats-wise but I will, in due course, post my conclusions and describe what tweaks I've made to the model.
Cheers.