Peanuts - very interesting. I look forward to your predictions for the Scottish National then. I wanna go for Major Malarky or BecauseIcouldntsee but with no other reason or rationale than greedy odds. Any more scientific rationale for placing a bet or two would be appreciated.
I ruled Aurora’s Encore out because he had fallen six times before. Any more than two falls should give a horse no chance of winning a National. But back to the Scottish National and Rigadin de Beauchene should easily make the first four.
<blockquote class="Quote" rel="len90">I ruled Aurora’s Encore out because he had fallen six times before. Any more than two falls should give a horse no chance of winning a National. </blockquote>
Best to avoid elimination tests tbh Len. The only one I have confidence in is to put a line thru 7 year-olds. As regards jumping, granted it's unusual to have a winner with as many as 6 F/URs but he had had 40 hurdles and chases under rules. Arguably Rough Quest had at least as bad a jumping record (5 from 24 prior to his GN win).
A word of caution about Scot Nat trends. It is commonly recommended to back runners with 10.06 or less. Certainly no winner has carried more than 10.06 since Grey Abbey (11.12) in 2004. BUT: a) 2 runners since 2004 were <1L runner-up with more weight (e.g. Auroras Encore last year with 10.11 and Gone To Lunch in 2009 with 11.10 [topweight]) b) more significantly, it looks like it will be soft ground (even if it dries to GS, it may be very tacky). We'll get a better idea this afternoon from the Friday card. The last SN run on easier than Good was (you've got it) in 2004 when it was Good-to-Soft and the topweight won by a distance. The last Soft ground SN was in 1999 when Young Kenny won with 11.10 (topweight) by 9L from Hollybank Buck (11.00). It may seem counter-intuitve but, from my GN analysis, a light weight tends to be more of an advantage on good ground. You'd think that carrying a heavy weight on soft would be a big negative but it seems that going the pace of a good ground marathon trip with a big weight is even more demanding. More later.
A word of caution about Scot Nat trends. It is commonly recommended to back runners with 10.06 or less. Certainly no winner has carried more than 10.06 since Grey Abbey (11.12) in 2004. BUT: a) 2 runners since 2004 were <1L runner-up with more weight (e.g. Auroras Encore last year with 10.11 and Gone To Lunch in 2009 with 11.10 [topweight]) b) more significantly, it looks like it will be soft ground (even if it dries to GS, it may be very tacky). We'll get a better idea this afternoon from the Friday card. The last SN run on easier than Good was (you've got it) in 2004 when it was Good-to-Soft and the topweight won by a distance. The last Soft ground SN was in 1999 when Young Kenny won with 11.10 (topweight) by 9L from Hollybank Buck (11.00). It may seem counter-intuitve but, from my GN analysis, a light weight tends to be more of an advantage on good ground. You'd think that carrying a heavy weight on soft would be a big negative but it seems that going the pace of a good ground marathon trip with a big weight is even more demanding. More later.</p>
NB. These are ULTRA-LOW conviction selections. Not only is there is no model for the SN, just a quick and dirty elimination method (sometimes they work, often they flop) but it's even more unreliable this year because all recent SN data is for Good or Good-to-Firm going. Only 2 of the last 14 SNs were on softer than Good (1999 & 2004). On the basis that the ground tomorrow will probably be Good-to-Soft, for the reasons mentioned in my earlier post, I think you can forget about weight as a stat. Having said that, and having now screened the runners, ironically 2 of the 3 selections carry less than 10.06. The stats that I'm focussing on are related to those of winners and close runners-up (<4L) since 2003 (20 of them) and to winners of both of the softer ground SNs and the 2 horses placed <15L (please note that I include as a "win" in the stats-analysis a finish <4L of the winner). So from data for 23 previous strong performers, I am looking for a runner that: • Has won a Class A chase at 3.5m+ or any chase at 4m+ (13/23, incl all 4 on GS~Sft) • Has won a Class A chase at 3m+ or any chase at 3.5m+ and either never run or placed at 4m+ (9/23) Only Joes Edge (winner on Good ground 2005) failed to meet either of these 2 conditions above. • Has a win in the season (21/23, incl all 4 on GS~Sft) • Is 8+ years-old (20/23, incl all 4 on GS~Sft) • Has had 3+ runs in season (23/23) • Had its last run not more than 57 days prior (23/23) • Has at least a 40% Win & Place Ratio in its chase career (21/23, incl all 4 on GS~Sft) Applying these tests to this year’s runners we are left with 3 (in card order with best odds from one of the 5 place bookies: Paddy, Vic and Bet365) but bear in mind that some of those eliminated may only just fail one of these tests so there is a high margin of error (including Auroras Encore, Always Right, Bradley, Mister Marker and even Captain Americo): RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (20/1) MONSIEUR CADOU (12/1) REBECCAS CHOICE (20/1)
Those first 2 stat-tests should be: EITHER • Has won a Class A chase at 3.5m+ or any chase at 4m+ (13/23, incl all 4 on GS~Sft) OR • Has won a Class A chase at 3m+ or any chase at 3.5m+ and either never run or placed at 4m+ (9/23)
With 5 E/w places, I'll going to add to my ticket a 4th, selected from those that only just fail one of the stat elimination tests and is a winner (or near-thing) at 4m+. Auroras Encore and Always Right are both tempting but I doubt that the ground will dry out enough for AE to do a Rummy and while AR only fails to tick the season runs box (2 vs the minimum 3 of all 23 of the reference former runners) I think his season's win at Kelso was a trifle fortunate when the two favourites disappointed (Ballabriggs hardly franked the form) and 12/1 is too skinny IMO. So I'm going to have a nibble of Captain Americo (50/1 for 5 places now but I expect him to be longer in the morning, since surely nobody else could be daft enough to fancy him). Bottom weight (and 7lbs out of the handicap), nonetheless he ticks all the stat boxes aside from having a 38.9% Win & Place Ratio (but 2 of the reference runners had lower), was a near-thing in the 4m Borders National on Soft in Dec and also in a Listed 3m chase on GS a year earlier off a mark 8lbs higher than tomorrow......... oh......and he was bred by P. Molloy..............nailed on!
Let's hope they include a Dude and aren't all a bunch of Fairyhouse flops.
Been having a look at Punchestown Peanuts...............looks like some cracking racing. Solwit vs Quevega Teaforthree going in the goldcup looks attractive at 33-1 since it's expected to be a bog.
Let's hope they include a Dude and aren't all a bunch of Fairyhouse flops.
Been having a look at Punchestown Peanuts...............looks like some cracking racing. Solwit vs Quevega Teaforthree going in the goldcup looks attractive at 33-1 since it's expected to be a bog.
Now don't go getting sentimentally attached again Abs........you know it's not good for your wealth. I'm sure they won't run him unless they think he's fine but: a) he was pretty much legless at the line at Aintree b) just as importantly, you need to know his sleeping arrangements......yes indeed. You may recall that his poor prep run at Haydock was put down to the fact that he is a "home-bird" and nocturnal eater and was not happy being stabled overnight away from home. So they travelled up to Aintree on the morning of the GN. Not sure if it's possible for them to travel over same day as the Punchestown GC - if not he may go all moody again. Will certainly make for great viewing the racing there but personally, other than maybe a small flutter in the "Whitbread" next Saturday, that's my speculating done for the season. Time to try and figure out something sane to do with my spare time.
Comments
Will still be looking out for your Jock GN tips though...
Bugger
Best to avoid elimination tests tbh Len. The only one I have confidence in is to put a line thru 7 year-olds.
As regards jumping, granted it's unusual to have a winner with as many as 6 F/URs but he had had 40 hurdles and chases under rules. Arguably Rough Quest had at least as bad a jumping record (5 from 24 prior to his GN win).
It is commonly recommended to back runners with 10.06 or less. Certainly no winner has carried more than 10.06 since Grey Abbey (11.12) in 2004.
BUT:
a) 2 runners since 2004 were <1L runner-up with more weight (e.g. Auroras Encore last year with 10.11 and Gone To Lunch in 2009 with 11.10 [topweight])
b) more significantly, it looks like it will be soft ground (even if it dries to GS, it may be very tacky). We'll get a better idea this afternoon from the Friday card.
The last SN run on easier than Good was (you've got it) in 2004 when it was Good-to-Soft and the topweight won by a distance. The last Soft ground SN was in 1999 when Young Kenny won with 11.10 (topweight) by 9L from Hollybank Buck (11.00).
It may seem counter-intuitve but, from my GN analysis, a light weight tends to be more of an advantage on good ground. You'd think that carrying a heavy weight on soft would be a big negative but it seems that going the pace of a good ground marathon trip with a big weight is even more demanding.
More later.
Not only is there is no model for the SN, just a quick and dirty elimination method (sometimes they work, often they flop) but it's even more unreliable this year because all recent SN data is for Good or Good-to-Firm going. Only 2 of the last 14 SNs were on softer than Good (1999 & 2004).
On the basis that the ground tomorrow will probably be Good-to-Soft, for the reasons mentioned in my earlier post, I think you can forget about weight as a stat. Having said that, and having now screened the runners, ironically 2 of the 3 selections carry less than 10.06.
The stats that I'm focussing on are related to those of winners and close runners-up (<4L) since 2003 (20 of them) and to winners of both of the softer ground SNs and the 2 horses placed <15L (please note that I include as a "win" in the stats-analysis a finish <4L of the winner). So from data for 23 previous strong performers, I am looking for a runner that:
• Has won a Class A chase at 3.5m+ or any chase at 4m+ (13/23, incl all 4 on GS~Sft)
• Has won a Class A chase at 3m+ or any chase at 3.5m+ and either never run or placed at 4m+ (9/23)
Only Joes Edge (winner on Good ground 2005) failed to meet either of these 2 conditions above.
• Has a win in the season (21/23, incl all 4 on GS~Sft)
• Is 8+ years-old (20/23, incl all 4 on GS~Sft)
• Has had 3+ runs in season (23/23)
• Had its last run not more than 57 days prior (23/23)
• Has at least a 40% Win & Place Ratio in its chase career (21/23, incl all 4 on GS~Sft)
Applying these tests to this year’s runners we are left with 3 (in card order with best odds from one of the 5 place bookies: Paddy, Vic and Bet365) but bear in mind that some of those eliminated may only just fail one of these tests so there is a high margin of error (including Auroras Encore, Always Right, Bradley, Mister Marker and even Captain Americo):
RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (20/1)
MONSIEUR CADOU (12/1)
REBECCAS CHOICE (20/1)
EITHER
• Has won a Class A chase at 3.5m+ or any chase at 4m+ (13/23, incl all 4 on GS~Sft)
OR
• Has won a Class A chase at 3m+ or any chase at 3.5m+ and either never run or placed at 4m+ (9/23)
Auroras Encore and Always Right are both tempting but I doubt that the ground will dry out enough for AE to do a Rummy and while AR only fails to tick the season runs box (2 vs the minimum 3 of all 23 of the reference former runners) I think his season's win at Kelso was a trifle fortunate when the two favourites disappointed (Ballabriggs hardly franked the form) and 12/1 is too skinny IMO.
So I'm going to have a nibble of Captain Americo (50/1 for 5 places now but I expect him to be longer in the morning, since surely nobody else could be daft enough to fancy him). Bottom weight (and 7lbs out of the handicap), nonetheless he ticks all the stat boxes aside from having a 38.9% Win & Place Ratio (but 2 of the reference runners had lower), was a near-thing in the 4m Borders National on Soft in Dec and also in a Listed 3m chase on GS a year earlier off a mark 8lbs higher than tomorrow......... oh......and he was bred by P. Molloy..............nailed on!
Solwit vs Quevega
Teaforthree going in the goldcup looks attractive at 33-1 since it's expected to be a bog.
I'm sure they won't run him unless they think he's fine but:
a) he was pretty much legless at the line at Aintree
b) just as importantly, you need to know his sleeping arrangements......yes indeed. You may recall that his poor prep run at Haydock was put down to the fact that he is a "home-bird" and nocturnal eater and was not happy being stabled overnight away from home. So they travelled up to Aintree on the morning of the GN. Not sure if it's possible for them to travel over same day as the Punchestown GC - if not he may go all moody again.
Will certainly make for great viewing the racing there but personally, other than maybe a small flutter in the "Whitbread" next Saturday, that's my speculating done for the season. Time to try and figure out something sane to do with my spare time.