Great tips Peanuts, nice profit AGAIN. Any tips for The Scottish GN, could do with another cash injection?
Cheers Chief, very kind. I may have a lash at the Scot Nat with a quick and dirty elimination method (depends on the make-up of the field) but they would only be low conviction selections, like the Welsh (which worked) and the Irish (which didn't). The model only works for the GN I'm afraid....................much to Mrs Molloy's relief.
peanuts, a fact i have picked out of the bones is the winner has won 8 times in his career from 44. His form is very hit or miss with 5 times a faller, 1 unseated, 1refused and many PU's. But a key note is his april record of 8 runs with 5 wins 1 second clearly like the April.
Sue Smith was on atthereaces yesterday morning, she said she fancied him to run well as he was 2nd in the scottish last year carrying more weight. She said he hates heavy ground as he can't jump out of it, and the going really turned in his favour.
Well done PM. Would be interested in your analysis of the winner. Great story. The bookies must be happy, as few have the PM model to show a profit. Think T43 would have won it but for ploughing through the last fence.
Got 2 free 50 bets (Ladbrooks @ 16-1 and Betfred at 22-1 on T43) later lasts past Scottish national so a tip always appreciated. Swing Bill was a great spot, actually they all were. KUTGW ;-)
Cheers Abs m'old mucka. Was pretty chuffed that all the top 3 made some money.....and bookies flush with Irish cash after Saturday.......which is rather satisfying after Boylesports and Paddy made off with my loot at Fairyhouse ;o) Analysis of the winner and other placed horses will be coming but could do with a bit of R&R if you don't mind so it may be a few days. Will certainly take a butchers at the Scottish.....more anon.
I definitely want to make some kind of donation as without your model i would have never backed swing bill. So i will join the trust as u requested...do they take international transfers?
Also should we both be at the same game i shall contact you and insist on buying you a beer or five!
Hopefully you'll find the info you need on the Trust's website calydon_road. There are contact details for the Trust if you have any specific questions. Many thanks again. You're a top man.
peanuts, a fact i have picked out of the bones is the winner has won 8 times in his career from 44. His form is very hit or miss with 5 times a faller, 1 unseated, 1refused and many PU's. But a key note is his april record of 8 runs with 5 wins 1 second clearly like the April.
Sue Smith was on atthereaces yesterday morning, she said she fancied him to run well as he was 2nd in the scottish last year carrying more weight. She said he hates heavy ground as he can't jump out of it, and the going really turned in his favour.
All good and very pertinent stuff. Many thanks chaps. Liking for spring ground has not been a criterion for the model to date but it would be useful (it is certainly logical) to try to develop a stat to accomodate that, if it can be evaluated reasonably objectively. Would appear essential to do so, one way or another, to explain Aurora's performance. Pretty sure it can be done but it will take a little time. I need to chew on it, make sure it's logical and do all the back-testing.
One of my drivers pulled him out in the sweepstake and as he always does put £30 on to win in the bookies the only 2 bets he does all year best part of 2k
peanuts, a fact i have picked out of the bones is the winner has won 8 times in his career from 44. His form is very hit or miss with 5 times a faller, 1 unseated, 1refused and many PU's. But a key note is his april record of 8 runs with 5 wins 1 second clearly like the April.
Cheers for the detective work oldbloke. Very helpful and clearly a pretty impressive spring record. Apart from 2011 when he was injured, he's won or had a <4L 2nd in the period from The Festival to May Day every year he's been racing (from 2007) and, as you point out, a high strike rate specifically in April. Tailor-made for the GN. I'm working on modelling it.
Peanuts...thanks for that. Ill have myself a little looksee.
Very impressed by the whole episode. Ok it helps that everyone coined it in but i also notoced the kind words and politeness you have taken replying to everyone. One in a million pal but i guess thats us addicks!
Peanuts...thanks for that. Ill have myself a little looksee.
Very impressed by the whole episode. Ok it helps that everyone coined it in but i also notoced the kind words and politeness you have taken replying to everyone. One in a million pal but i guess thats us addicks!
Cheers pal, just trying to maintain the scrupulously polite spirit seen in all threads on this board.................................................................err.................... ;o)
One of my drivers pulled him out in the sweepstake and as he always does put £30 on to win in the bookies the only 2 bets he does all year best part of 2k
Well done to him
wish I had started to follow Peanuts earlier if it means you can afford a couple of chauffeurs !!!
Any thoughts on the Scottish national? My system rules out anything that ran in the real national, anything aged under 8 or over 11 and anything that hasn't run in the last two months. I fancy Quentin Collonges at around 14/1
Any thoughts on the Scottish national? My system rules out anything that ran in the real national, anything aged under 8 or over 11 and anything that hasn't run in the last two months. I fancy Quentin Collonges at around 14/1
Peanuts I completely forgot to add my thanks for your tips for the GN. Alas I didn't have the six places for Swing Bill but had a good result anyway thanks to your ante-post advice.
It's a shame the race clashed with a home game as the running of the National has always been a great day in my house. Suffice to say I mentioned your fancies to my folks/brother and they did alright out of your knowledge as well.
Even if your fantastic model does eventually have a hiccup, the fact is it works brilliantly and has given me more enjoyment over the past few years than ever before. Much appreciated fella and your legendary status is already spreading beyond CL
Extremely kind red_murph. Much appreciated. Some interesting aspects to this last GN which I think I've now incorporated in the model................We're coming after you Vic!
OK folks, some further thoughts on the 2013 GN (initial thoughts posted the day after, which I’ll endeavour not to repeat here), having completed my stat-analysis and tweaked the model to reconcile the principal unexpected performances (all tweaks have been successfully back-tested against GNs since 1988 to ensure consistency). Apologies that it’s rather long, as a result of which I’m posting it in instalments. As a general observation, I think this was one of the most interesting GN results of recent years, not so much because of the shock (yet comfortable) 66/1 winner or the 44/1 average SP of the first 6 home. After all, only 4 years ago we had a 100/1, equally emphatic winner and an identical 44/1 average SP for 1~6. Indeed, 7 of the last 10 GNs have seen 66/1+ long-shots (5 had 100/1 shots) make at least one of those places. Much to the chagrin of supposedly-expert journos, despite compression of the weights, outsiders making the frame and even claiming National glory remains unexceptional. Well, that just proves it’s a lottery………………doesn’t it?.......... ;o) IMO, what is particularly fascinating about the 2013 GN result is the (almost total) no-show of runners with 11.00+ and what this says (alongside the evidence of other “Compression GNs”) about the true effects of compressing the handicap. I’ll expand on this in the next instalment. Despite missing the winner, naturally I was delighted that the model’s top 3 selections came in the front 6 and (not that I rejoice in failure) that the model proved right to downplay the chances of several market fancies (Seabass and On His Own significantly underperformed even its expectations). As always, there were surprises from the model’s perspective and, therefore, lessons to be learned, starting with the winner.
PART 1 It’s useful to have a benchmark against which to evaluate performances; as he did last year, Cappa Bleu most obviously ran as expected by the model on Gd/GS (c 10L behind the winner – just the wrong winner!). Briefly as regards CB, while I understand the criticism of Paul Moloney’s tactics, having re-watched the race and accepting that no-one can know what might have been, I do think it’s harsh. Bearing in mind the concerns of some that CB had been a little low at the fences last year, IMO Moloney rode a fine race around the inner (as usual), getting him into a good rhythm and keeping in touch at as even a pace as possible to out-stay and beat all but one horse that, on this ground, proved to be a handicap “good-thing”……….and the winner was not stopping.
AURORA’S ENCORE JT rightly observed that AE’s close 2nd in the Scottish National a year ago is the key piece of form to explain his GN victory but oldbloke put his finger on one particularly striking and, given the Gd/GS going, key aspect of AE’s career: his strong preference for “spring ground”. It’s easy to be wise after the event and now it seems plain dumb that, previously, the model had no stat regarding a runner’s record specifically during this part of the season. So I re-visited the form for all GN runners in my database to strip out their chases each season during the 2 month period from the start of the Cheltenham Festival, thus including all of April and (normally) representing “spring ground”. I then applied to these “Spring Stats” the normal full-season test and credits for Strike Rates (separately for Wins and for Places, which can be weighty stats in the model). Lo and behold, therein the mystery of Aurora’s Encore was largely solved. The “Spring Stats” analysis shows, understandably, that many GN winners down the years loved good ground and sun on their backs (e.g. Seagram [1991], Monty’s Pass [2003] and Ballabriggs [2011]). However, their full-season Strike Rates were also very healthy. What distinguishes AE (and explains why the model not only missed him but incorrectly penalised him for a poor season on predominantly unsuitable ground) is that his Spring Strike Rates are vastly superior to the full-season version (6 chase wins or near-misses [<4L] from 8 starts [75%] in “Spring” [i.e. the 2 months from the start of The Festival] compared to 7 in 23 career chases [30%]. He has won only 1 of 15 chases [7%] outside of that 2 month window. By comparison, Seagram’s Strike Rate was 57% in the Spring vs 46% full-season: a marked difference but nothing to compare with AE. That discrepancy fooled both the model and the handicapper. Though not all of his 7 starts were on unsuitable going, clearly his poor season’s form prompted Phil Smith, having raised him 7lbs for his close 2nd with 10.11 last April in the Scottish National, subsequently to drop him a total of 13lbs so that he raced at Aintree off a mark 6lbs lower than at Ayr and carrying just 10.03. Given his ground, some sun and a trip to suit, he was indeed “well-in”. Smith wrote in his blog:
“There was never much prospect of repeating last year's closest ever finish of a Grand National but I have to admit I was a little disappointed with a winning margin of nine lengths. Auroras Encore was almost guaranteed to stay the trip but his recent form had been very disappointing. We are often accused of never dropping quickly enough, horses that have lost their way, yet here was a horse that had finished second beaten a head in the Scottish National less than a year ago and had then been raised to 150 running off a mark of 137. A 13lb reduction looks to put that criticism to bed rather effectively.”
Phil, mate, you have complete discretion over the GN weights. Of course, when you framed them no one had a clue what the ground would be like in April but, rather than bleating (yet again) about your critics, maybe you should just congratulate the winner and admit that you got it wrong when the last 7lbs of the OR drop you gave him was after runs on soft or heavy…………...but don’t worry, you’re not the only bloke to get the two-fingered salute from Harvey. So, the required tweak to the model has been to incorporate not only “Spring Stats” but to qualify penalties for poor season’s form where applicable to such a stark ground preference; logic suggests and back-testing verifies these tweaks should only be applied when the likely GN ground is Good-to-Soft or better. The simple facts are that: a) so stark is the contrast between AE’s Spring and Full-Season stats that these tweaks alone are sufficient to explain his margin of victory and b) so exceptional is the degree of contrast that they comfortably withstand back-testing.
MORE ANON (after I’ve taken a butcher’s at the Scottish, if you don’t mind).
Comments
I may have a lash at the Scot Nat with a quick and dirty elimination method (depends on the make-up of the field) but they would only be low conviction selections, like the Welsh (which worked) and the Irish (which didn't).
The model only works for the GN I'm afraid....................much to Mrs Molloy's relief.
His form is very hit or miss with 5 times a faller, 1 unseated, 1refused and many PU's. But a key note is his april record of 8 runs with 5 wins 1 second clearly like the April.
Was pretty chuffed that all the top 3 made some money.....and bookies flush with Irish cash after Saturday.......which is rather satisfying after Boylesports and Paddy made off with my loot at Fairyhouse ;o)
Analysis of the winner and other placed horses will be coming but could do with a bit of R&R if you don't mind so it may be a few days.
Will certainly take a butchers at the Scottish.....more anon.
Many thanks again. You're a top man.
http://www.castrust.org/join/
Liking for spring ground has not been a criterion for the model to date but it would be useful (it is certainly logical) to try to develop a stat to accomodate that, if it can be evaluated reasonably objectively. Would appear essential to do so, one way or another, to explain Aurora's performance. Pretty sure it can be done but it will take a little time. I need to chew on it, make sure it's logical and do all the back-testing.
Well done to him
I'm working on modelling it.
Very impressed by the whole episode. Ok it helps that everyone coined it in but i also notoced the kind words and politeness you have taken replying to everyone. One in a million pal but i guess thats us addicks!
Did you finalise your analysis on the GN?
It's a shame the race clashed with a home game as the running of the National has always been a great day in my house. Suffice to say I mentioned your fancies to my folks/brother and they did alright out of your knowledge as well.
Even if your fantastic model does eventually have a hiccup, the fact is it works brilliantly and has given me more enjoyment over the past few years than ever before. Much appreciated fella and your legendary status is already spreading beyond CL
Some interesting aspects to this last GN which I think I've now incorporated in the model................We're coming after you Vic!
As a general observation, I think this was one of the most interesting GN results of recent years, not so much because of the shock (yet comfortable) 66/1 winner or the 44/1 average SP of the first 6 home. After all, only 4 years ago we had a 100/1, equally emphatic winner and an identical 44/1 average SP for 1~6. Indeed, 7 of the last 10 GNs have seen 66/1+ long-shots (5 had 100/1 shots) make at least one of those places. Much to the chagrin of supposedly-expert journos, despite compression of the weights, outsiders making the frame and even claiming National glory remains unexceptional. Well, that just proves it’s a lottery………………doesn’t it?.......... ;o)
IMO, what is particularly fascinating about the 2013 GN result is the (almost total) no-show of runners with 11.00+ and what this says (alongside the evidence of other “Compression GNs”) about the true effects of compressing the handicap. I’ll expand on this in the next instalment.
Despite missing the winner, naturally I was delighted that the model’s top 3 selections came in the front 6 and (not that I rejoice in failure) that the model proved right to downplay the chances of several market fancies (Seabass and On His Own significantly underperformed even its expectations). As always, there were surprises from the model’s perspective and, therefore, lessons to be learned, starting with the winner.
PART 1
It’s useful to have a benchmark against which to evaluate performances; as he did last year, Cappa Bleu most obviously ran as expected by the model on Gd/GS (c 10L behind the winner – just the wrong winner!).
Briefly as regards CB, while I understand the criticism of Paul Moloney’s tactics, having re-watched the race and accepting that no-one can know what might have been, I do think it’s harsh. Bearing in mind the concerns of some that CB had been a little low at the fences last year, IMO Moloney rode a fine race around the inner (as usual), getting him into a good rhythm and keeping in touch at as even a pace as possible to out-stay and beat all but one horse that, on this ground, proved to be a handicap “good-thing”……….and the winner was not stopping.
AURORA’S ENCORE
JT rightly observed that AE’s close 2nd in the Scottish National a year ago is the key piece of form to explain his GN victory but oldbloke put his finger on one particularly striking and, given the Gd/GS going, key aspect of AE’s career: his strong preference for “spring ground”.
It’s easy to be wise after the event and now it seems plain dumb that, previously, the model had no stat regarding a runner’s record specifically during this part of the season. So I re-visited the form for all GN runners in my database to strip out their chases each season during the 2 month period from the start of the Cheltenham Festival, thus including all of April and (normally) representing “spring ground”. I then applied to these “Spring Stats” the normal full-season test and credits for Strike Rates (separately for Wins and for Places, which can be weighty stats in the model). Lo and behold, therein the mystery of Aurora’s Encore was largely solved.
The “Spring Stats” analysis shows, understandably, that many GN winners down the years loved good ground and sun on their backs (e.g. Seagram [1991], Monty’s Pass [2003] and Ballabriggs [2011]). However, their full-season Strike Rates were also very healthy. What distinguishes AE (and explains why the model not only missed him but incorrectly penalised him for a poor season on predominantly unsuitable ground) is that his Spring Strike Rates are vastly superior to the full-season version (6 chase wins or near-misses [<4L] from 8 starts [75%] in “Spring” [i.e. the 2 months from the start of The Festival] compared to 7 in 23 career chases [30%]. He has won only 1 of 15 chases [7%] outside of that 2 month window. By comparison, Seagram’s Strike Rate was 57% in the Spring vs 46% full-season: a marked difference but nothing to compare with AE.
That discrepancy fooled both the model and the handicapper. Though not all of his 7 starts were on unsuitable going, clearly his poor season’s form prompted Phil Smith, having raised him 7lbs for his close 2nd with 10.11 last April in the Scottish National, subsequently to drop him a total of 13lbs so that he raced at Aintree off a mark 6lbs lower than at Ayr and carrying just 10.03. Given his ground, some sun and a trip to suit, he was indeed “well-in”.
Smith wrote in his blog:
“There was never much prospect of repeating last year's closest ever finish of a Grand National but I have to admit I was a little disappointed with a winning margin of nine lengths. Auroras Encore was almost guaranteed to stay the trip but his recent form had been very disappointing. We are often accused of never dropping quickly enough, horses that have lost their way, yet here was a horse that had finished second beaten a head in the Scottish National less than a year ago and had then been raised to 150 running off a mark of 137. A 13lb reduction looks to put that criticism to bed rather effectively.”
Phil, mate, you have complete discretion over the GN weights. Of course, when you framed them no one had a clue what the ground would be like in April but, rather than bleating (yet again) about your critics, maybe you should just congratulate the winner and admit that you got it wrong when the last 7lbs of the OR drop you gave him was after runs on soft or heavy…………...but don’t worry, you’re not the only bloke to get the two-fingered salute from Harvey.
So, the required tweak to the model has been to incorporate not only “Spring Stats” but to qualify penalties for poor season’s form where applicable to such a stark ground preference; logic suggests and back-testing verifies these tweaks should only be applied when the likely GN ground is Good-to-Soft or better. The simple facts are that: a) so stark is the contrast between AE’s Spring and Full-Season stats that these tweaks alone are sufficient to explain his margin of victory and b) so exceptional is the degree of contrast that they comfortably withstand back-testing.
MORE ANON (after I’ve taken a butcher’s at the Scottish, if you don’t mind).