Burton Port at 55 average on Betfair remains my main hope but, as I usually end up being the "bridesmaid" in the GN, I have combined BP with a few of your selections PM.
Good luck everyone - and remember only bet what you can afford to lose.
Or, alternatively, you could follow the Clement Freud school of thought on gambling which is "it's not worth having a bet unless it's going to cause you pain if it loses".
Why do I feel like Peanuts is getting married tomorrow !
No pressure mate, but I'm eating baked beans till July* if it all goes wrong !
*Not really. Mid June
"Facts about baked beans
Australian cricketer Shane Warne is a self-confessed baked bean addict 6 January is national bean day in America The average British person eats more than 15 pounds of beans each year At the 1998 World Cup the England team nutritionist banned baked beans for being too sugary Alan Shearer says he always eats chicken and baked beans before a big game Wes Brown admitted in Japan that he does not know how to cook baked beans"
Courtesy of BBC Sport's Health & Fitness: The Joy Of Beans.
Gawd knows what Mrs Molloy will slip in my beans if all my fellas flop today :0(
If you can give it a short while, I'll try to check the going (probably unchanged) and re-fresh them. Whatever the ground, the top 3 will be unchanged: T43 Monbeg Dude Chance Du Roy.
It's the best place contenders that are more ground dependent and giving me the heeby-jeebies.
Peanuts, forgive my ignorance here, i'm gonna have the same as Shine...
Chance du Roy e/w £5 Swing bill e/w £2.50 Mountainous e/w £5 The package e/w £5 Monbeg due win £5 T43 win £5
I was gonna open an account with BetVictor and get the 25 quid free bet - but have found in the past that its tough to take money OUT of an online account and that it tends to just get left there - any advice? or am i being stoopid again ?
Peanuts, forgive my ignorance here, i'm gonna have the same as Shine...
Chance du Roy e/w £5 Swing bill e/w £2.50 Mountainous e/w £5 The package e/w £5 Monbeg due win £5 T43 win £5
I was gonna open an account with BetVictor and get the 25 quid free bet - but have found in the past that its tough to take money OUT of an online account and that it tends to just get left there - any advice? or am i being stoopid again ?
You've covered the bases as regards my model's ratings and possible going variations. I'm not so bothered about speed of withdrawal - if I have something to withdraw I'm sufficiently happy to wait for it ) Never had a meaningful problem with getting money out. Personally, I would always go for the extra e/w place with Vic, unless he is meaningfully lower odds than a 5 place booky - missed out too many times on the long-shots sneaking into 5th or 6th but thankfully had Swing Bill last year for 6th.
Best of luck Pres and cheers for the vote of confidence. Hoping at least one of them brings home the bacon.
Cheers Peanuts - good luck to you - hope it all works out.
Just opened account with BetVictor, and a little bit of a con with the 25 quid free bet in that they say it could take up to 2 days to hit the account !
Gawd knows what Mrs Molloy will slip in my beans if all my fellas flop today :0(
Probably Viagra if your old fella flops!! ;-)
Yet again, a wonderful read this thread. Thanks very much for all the insights Mr Peanuts. Best of luck to you, all your fans here & the horses & jockeys today...and Charlton too!! :-)
Cheers Peanuts - good luck to you - hope it all works out.
Just opened account with BetVictor, and a little bit of a con with the 25 quid free bet in that they say it could take up to 2 days to hit the account !
Cheers Pres, They are a bunch of tossers, the lot of them, at times. Vic's Non Runner Free Bet, that they started early but kept going when a lot of the others had gone NRNB, was a bit of a con aswell with per horse and per punter limits. Anyhow, I reckon you'll find a BetVic a/c handy for the future if you like e/w betting - I tend to use them, Bet365 and Paddy the most, being a long-shot backer when not equipped with a spreadsheet. Fingers crossed that we make them pay today!
Is red rum running in this? I backed a horse a few years ago, it fell at the first fence, got put down, never backed anything again but I might have a flutter on something. I don't mind backing anything Willy Carson is riding?
Double kiss of death for Burton Port. Pricewise tipping it is bad enough but Luke Harvey going for it is a disaster ;-(
I have to confess AA (and it's nothing personal) but, for various reasons (not least my lost ante post stake in 2012), there is no result this afternoon that is more likely to cause me to stick my boot through my Samsung Smart TV than Jonjo completing a right royal mugging ;o)
In any event, best of luck Chief. So long as it's a couple of my boys following him home, I'll be magnanimous........maybe!
According to the BBC Weather website it's liable to rain on and off (sometimes heavy) all day at Aintree - so we can assume dry and sunny then )
Accuweather showing the odd shower mid morning but more persistent showers during the afternoon.
Hopefully will get a clue from The Morning Line now and/or Racing UK at 10am.
Probably wouldn't require too much rain to turn it back to genuine Gd/GS mix, as last year. I know the official description is that anyway but it was riding more like Good for the last 2 days.
As regards best place candidates, there's very little to split them, according to my model:
Mountainous - best choice if going like last year (Gd/GS mix) but not without a squeak of a place on quicker
The Package - best choice if going is genuine Good (as it has been riding last two days) but decent shout if Gd/GS
Shakalakaboomboom & Long Run - model rates them both as fair chances of making the frame on Gd or Gd/GS. With Shaka having come back mid-season from injury a lot of trust is required that he is sound and that Aintree brings out his best (it has done with other similar injury-returnees in the past but it's a doubt). With Long Run it is a venture into an unknown trip with a big weight - stats are against but he was in his prime a top 3.25 miler and is still only a 9y-o)
Swing Bill - of course, he won't win and Good ground would probably be too quick for him to make the frame but with any proper cut in the ground at all he has the same place potential (according to my model) as Shaka and Long Run. At 100/1 for 6 places and considering that he carries 7lbs less than when 6th last time and has made the frame in each of his last 3 runs over the course, despite his 13 years of age, there's no reason why he shouldn't give backers a serious run for their money for quite a way whatever the ground. Hello Bud was 14 when he was 21L 7th in the fast-ground 2012 GN, missing 6th by just 4L.
The day has finally arrived peanuts I have great faith in you and you amaze me with your knowledge, good luck everyone and let's not forget COYR!!!
You're too kind gents. Much appreciate the confidence in my model but also your preparedness for a blank. Hopefully we'll keep it rolling for another year but, most of all, that all return safe and sound.
PM - can I ask you to PM me details of your Bank Account because when we win as a result of your wonderful strategy I would like to send you a percentage of my country's winnings.
Comments
No pressure mate, but I'm eating baked beans till July* if it all goes wrong !
*Not really. Mid June
Good luck everyone - and remember only bet what you can afford to lose.
Or, alternatively, you could follow the Clement Freud school of thought on gambling which is "it's not worth having a bet unless it's going to cause you pain if it loses".
I've had a lot of pain in my life.
Australian cricketer Shane Warne is a self-confessed baked bean addict
6 January is national bean day in America
The average British person eats more than 15 pounds of beans each year
At the 1998 World Cup the England team nutritionist banned baked beans for being too sugary
Alan Shearer says he always eats chicken and baked beans before a big game
Wes Brown admitted in Japan that he does not know how to cook baked beans"
Courtesy of BBC Sport's Health & Fitness: The Joy Of Beans.
Gawd knows what Mrs Molloy will slip in my beans if all my fellas flop today :0(
Whatever the ground, the top 3 will be unchanged:
T43
Monbeg Dude
Chance Du Roy.
It's the best place contenders that are more ground dependent and giving me the heeby-jeebies.
Chance du Roy e/w £5
Swing bill e/w £2.50
Mountainous e/w £5
The package e/w £5
Monbeg due win £5
T43 win £5
I was gonna open an account with BetVictor and get the 25 quid free bet - but have found in the past that its tough to take money OUT of an online account and that it tends to just get left there - any advice? or am i being stoopid again ?
I'm not so bothered about speed of withdrawal - if I have something to withdraw I'm sufficiently happy to wait for it
Never had a meaningful problem with getting money out.
Personally, I would always go for the extra e/w place with Vic, unless he is meaningfully lower odds than a 5 place booky - missed out too many times on the long-shots sneaking into 5th or 6th but thankfully had Swing Bill last year for 6th.
Best of luck Pres and cheers for the vote of confidence. Hoping at least one of them brings home the bacon.
Just opened account with BetVictor, and a little bit of a con with the 25 quid free bet in that they say it could take up to 2 days to hit the account !
Probably Viagra if your old fella flops!! ;-)
Yet again, a wonderful read this thread. Thanks very much for all the insights Mr Peanuts. Best of luck to you, all your fans here & the horses & jockeys today...and Charlton too!! :-)
They are a bunch of tossers, the lot of them, at times. Vic's Non Runner Free Bet, that they started early but kept going when a lot of the others had gone NRNB, was a bit of a con aswell with per horse and per punter limits.
Anyhow, I reckon you'll find a BetVic a/c handy for the future if you like e/w betting - I tend to use them, Bet365 and Paddy the most, being a long-shot backer when not equipped with a spreadsheet.
Fingers crossed that we make them pay today!
Peace from the A Block East.
Not expecting much as I am the worst judge since Pontius Pilate.
In any event, best of luck Chief. So long as it's a couple of my boys following him home, I'll be magnanimous........maybe!
Accuweather showing the odd shower mid morning but more persistent showers during the afternoon.
Hopefully will get a clue from The Morning Line now and/or Racing UK at 10am.
Probably wouldn't require too much rain to turn it back to genuine Gd/GS mix, as last year. I know the official description is that anyway but it was riding more like Good for the last 2 days.
As regards best place candidates, there's very little to split them, according to my model:
Mountainous - best choice if going like last year (Gd/GS mix) but not without a squeak of a place on quicker
The Package - best choice if going is genuine Good (as it has been riding last two days) but decent shout if Gd/GS
Shakalakaboomboom & Long Run - model rates them both as fair chances of making the frame on Gd or Gd/GS. With Shaka having come back mid-season from injury a lot of trust is required that he is sound and that Aintree brings out his best (it has done with other similar injury-returnees in the past but it's a doubt). With Long Run it is a venture into an unknown trip with a big weight - stats are against but he was in his prime a top 3.25 miler and is still only a 9y-o)
Swing Bill - of course, he won't win and Good ground would probably be too quick for him to make the frame but with any proper cut in the ground at all he has the same place potential (according to my model) as Shaka and Long Run. At 100/1 for 6 places and considering that he carries 7lbs less than when 6th last time and has made the frame in each of his last 3 runs over the course, despite his 13 years of age, there's no reason why he shouldn't give backers a serious run for their money for quite a way whatever the ground. Hello Bud was 14 when he was 21L 7th in the fast-ground 2012 GN, missing 6th by just 4L.
Olusegun Obasanjo
President, Nigeria
Is that the same with all bookies ? I did swing bill at 66 and he's now 100/1