Bet365 now offering to refund half of e/w stakes up to £125 on bets placed before noon on Saturday. Nrnb and 5 places.
For anyone that missed this. This offer is for existing customers only. I can't see any catch. In fact I've just put my sisters £5 e/w on and it's already credited a fiver (cash, not free bet) back into my account. So her fiver e/w has only cost her a fiver.
Do us a favour Peanuts - just tell us who to bet on and with what Bookie before 10am tomorrow, and you'll be a lege forever . Just imagine that , 3 points for the Addicks and some happily more affluent fans , equals a brill sat night.
BTW, without reading thru all the comments - did you come to a conclusion as to why your spreadsheet didnt get Auroras whatsit last year?
BTW, without reading thru all the comments - did you come to a conclusion as to why your spreadsheet didnt get Auroras whatsit last year?
Sure did. Reason he was unfancied by the model before the race was because of terrible season's form - hadn't made the frame in 7 races. When he romped home it seemed like he'd be one I'd have to set aside as an "outlier" that could never be explained statistically. What then came to light was a remarkable peculiarity about his chase career, shared by only one other horse in my database (Seagram, winner in 1991). He had a strong performance bias in favour of chases in the Spring (a 75% Win & near miss Strike Rate in his 8 chase runs during the 2 months from the start of the Cheltenham Festival, compared to a 6.7% Rate in his 15 chases outside that window). That of course explained his terrible season's form because much of it had been on Soft and/or without sun on his back. That poor season's form, of course, had also caused his handicap mark to be dropped gradually over the season to stand 6lbs below when he was beaten by a head the previous spring in the Scottish National. With the benefit of hindsight, he was "thrown in" by the handicapper on 10.03 and he certainly was no outlier.
PS There is a runner with the same Spring Ground bias this time......CHANCE DU ROY
Official time of Topham 5m23.2secs - 2.20secs slower than standard. Now that's again consistent with my time of 5m27s because they don't now start the clock until the horses pass the starter, whereas they used to start it when the tape went up so one would expect a few seconds difference - same 3-4 secs today as yesterday. I don't know if they adjust the relative to std for that change in starting point but there is NO WAY that ground that produces a time as fast as that is GS(Gd places) - the official description and the same as they described the GN going last year. This going is quicker than last year.
It is of no consequence to the top 3 in the model's ratings. They are, come what may:
1. T43 2. Monbeg Dude 3. Chance Du Roy
All of these 3 have winning profiles.
However, as I said yesterday, the choice of 4th etc is affected by whether it is Good or on the Easy side of Good (as it was last year). None of them have winning profiles but all have varying degrees of place potential. although (whatever the specific going) the best of them is rated by the model well behind (approx. 15L) 3rd rated Chance Du Roy.
If Good:
4. The Package (this was joint with the next 2 but would be marginally ahead of them if given the benefit of the doubt on a borderline stat) 5. (joint) Shakalakaboomboom, Long Run 7. (joint) Mountainous, Mr Moonshine, Pineau de Re
If "Easy side of Good" (i.e. any mix of Gd and GS):
4. Mountainous / The Package (though he rates above the next 4 by virtue of benefit of the doubt on a borderline stat) 6. (joint) Shakalakaboomboom / Long Run / Tidal Bay / Swing Bill
That's how the model sees it. It is the place contenders where the fluidity lies because they all have chinks in their armour and it is a question of whether those chinks are likely to be more visible in a race run at a quick ground pace or on still more stamina-demanding ground with juice.
In addition to the top 3, I have an ante-post on Shakalakboomboom at 50/1 and I added Moutainous at 40/1 the other day thinking that they would want the ground to be DEFINITELY on the Easy Side of Good and might even turn proper GS. I'm not going to add a 6th (there's only so many bases to cover before returns are too diluted) but for those who are still compiling their bets, The Package now probably looks the safest selection, according to the model, to cover the range of likely going. I posted his stats on page 10 but here they are again:
THE PACKAGE Unseated at the 19th fence when in mid-division in the 2010 GN but the model ignores that because he was a 7y-o (they typically don’t handle the occasion) and, making headway from the rear, he had completed a circuit and negotiated the biggest fences that Aintree has to offer (they are a little kinder now). A marginal and not unreasonable re-assessment of his stats elevates him slightly above the posse on going that is Easy side of Good, as last year (though he is still place, not winning potential). His profile: • A consistent but injury-prone chaser. If you discount the 2 runs prior to both injury lay-offs (i.e. the runs in which he probably was injured), other than his UR in the GN he has finished in the frame in 7 of 8 chases at 3m+ (the exception being to miss out by only 0.5L when 5th of 19 in the 2010 Bet365 [aka “Whitbread”]) • Versatile as regards ground and relishing a trip, he’s won two Class 1 3.25m chases, one on Soft, and was a strong finishing 2nd (by a head) in the 2010 William Hill Trophy at The Festival, run at a fast clip on decent ground. • He was a creditable 14.5L 4th in the 2012 Hennessy won impressively by Bobs Worth in a rapid time for the GS going (he was seemingly beaten by turn of foot rather than stamina). He ran off a mark of OR147 that day and is off OR141 at Aintree (the same as when 2nd in the 2010 WHT chase). • He has raced only once since returning from a year’s injury-absence, that being an admirable staying-on 3rd (8.75L) with 11.02 in the 25f handicap chase at The Festival 2 weeks ago, run in a time slightly faster than standard. He may, of course, be vulnerable to the notorious “bounce” (more like “flop”) on the 2nd run after return from injury. We’ll know on 5th April. • In 9 hurdles and 16 chases, his UR in the 2010 GN is the only occasion on which he has tipped up and he had Graham Lee on board for the first time that day – Tom Scudamore presumably will ride at Aintree (made the frame 3 from 3 with him to date). He’s won or run well over the stiff fences of Cheltenham and Newbury. • An 11y-o with 10.04 to carry and his last run (albeit his only run of the season) 25 days prior – in the sweet spot.
Chance Du Roy 33/1 E/W first 6. £25 free bet on VC. Regardless of the result this thread has been a good read. Will look at the two favs on Betfair nearer the time. Good luck all.
Also they had a mathmetician working out the winner today on H&J show who reckons the winner will be a horse with a name that starts with an M or an R!
Just watched that T43/Chance Du Roy race (15 feb 2014) T43 looks a lot bigger. Whether that has any relevance is beyond me. Just thought i would mention it.
ffs my luck. paul carbery dislodged shoulder, liam tredwell awaiting ride if he doesn't get the all clear in the morning.
Could be a blessing in disguise Abs. Creates a "GN story" and Treadwell (who knows how to ride a stamina-laden GN winner) may be more inclined to have him a nadge handier, as Scudamore did at Cheltenham - maybe for the best.
Chance Du Roy 33/1 E/W first 6. £25 free bet on VC. Regardless of the result this thread has been a good read. Will look at the two favs on Betfair nearer the time. Good luck all.
Just watched that T43/Chance Du Roy race (15 feb 2014) T43 looks a lot bigger. Whether that has any relevance is beyond me. Just thought i would mention it.
Peanuts, does size really matter?
Well, CDR has won and finished a close 2nd over the GN fences (the latter being before the last changes to the fences) so no worries on size.
Grauniad reporting that Carberry is hopeful of riding the Dude, if the doc passes him fit in the morning. X-rays showed nothing broken and no problem anticipated with the doc. Now there's another "GN story".
Well, once again the Racing Post agrees with my assessment, based on the time of the Topham on Friday, that the going is riding Good rather than the official description of GS(Gd places). So far, thankfully, no serious injuries to horses but a few nasty bumps and bruises for jocks. Whatever the result, let's hope that all 40 horses and jockies return safe and sound tomorrow.
Comments
Further fueling the feeling that Vautour could be a superstar.
This offer is for existing customers only. I can't see any catch. In fact I've just put my sisters £5 e/w on and it's already credited a fiver (cash, not free bet) back into my account. So her fiver e/w has only cost her a fiver.
Just imagine that , 3 points for the Addicks and some happily more affluent fans , equals a brill sat night.
BTW, without reading thru all the comments - did you come to a conclusion as to why your spreadsheet didnt get Auroras whatsit last year?
T43 £10 e/w @ 20-1 (weeks ago)
Monbeg Dude £10 e/w @ 20-1 (weeks ago)
Chance Du Roy £2.50 e/w @ 33-1 Free bet Stan James
Mountainous £2.50 e/w @ 40-1
T43 £10 e/w @ 10-1
Monbeg Dude £10 e/w @ 12-1
Long Run £10 e/w @ 12-1
The Package £10 e/w @ 18-1
Chance Du Roy £10 e/w @ 33-1
Shaka £10 e/w @ 33-1
Thanks Peanuts (I presume).
T43:
5 e/w paddy @ 20s
5 e/w Vic @ 8s
5 win fred @ 10s
Monbeg: 5e/w paddy @ 20s
5 e/w Vic @ 20s
2.50 e/w fred @ 20s
Shaka:
8 e/w fred @ 40s
Chance:
5 e/w Vic @ 33s
3 e/w Fred @ 33s
Mountainous:
2.5 e/w Stan (To be topped up)
In Peanuts we trust!
PS There is a runner with the same Spring Ground bias this time......CHANCE DU ROY
Now that's again consistent with my time of 5m27s because they don't now start the clock until the horses pass the starter, whereas they used to start it when the tape went up so one would expect a few seconds difference - same 3-4 secs today as yesterday.
I don't know if they adjust the relative to std for that change in starting point but there is NO WAY that ground that produces a time as fast as that is GS(Gd places) - the official description and the same as they described the GN going last year. This going is quicker than last year.
It is of no consequence to the top 3 in the model's ratings. They are, come what may:
1. T43
2. Monbeg Dude
3. Chance Du Roy
All of these 3 have winning profiles.
However, as I said yesterday, the choice of 4th etc is affected by whether it is Good or on the Easy side of Good (as it was last year).
None of them have winning profiles but all have varying degrees of place potential. although (whatever the specific going) the best of them is rated by the model well behind (approx. 15L) 3rd rated Chance Du Roy.
If Good:
4. The Package (this was joint with the next 2 but would be marginally ahead of them if given the benefit of the doubt on a borderline stat)
5. (joint) Shakalakaboomboom, Long Run
7. (joint) Mountainous, Mr Moonshine, Pineau de Re
If "Easy side of Good" (i.e. any mix of Gd and GS):
4. Mountainous / The Package (though he rates above the next 4 by virtue of benefit of the doubt on a borderline stat)
6. (joint) Shakalakaboomboom / Long Run / Tidal Bay / Swing Bill
That's how the model sees it. It is the place contenders where the fluidity lies because they all have chinks in their armour and it is a question of whether those chinks are likely to be more visible in a race run at a quick ground pace or on still more stamina-demanding ground with juice.
In addition to the top 3, I have an ante-post on Shakalakboomboom at 50/1 and I added Moutainous at 40/1 the other day thinking that they would want the ground to be DEFINITELY on the Easy Side of Good and might even turn proper GS. I'm not going to add a 6th (there's only so many bases to cover before returns are too diluted) but for those who are still compiling their bets, The Package now probably looks the safest selection, according to the model, to cover the range of likely going. I posted his stats on page 10 but here they are again:
THE PACKAGE
Unseated at the 19th fence when in mid-division in the 2010 GN but the model ignores that because he was a 7y-o (they typically don’t handle the occasion) and, making headway from the rear, he had completed a circuit and negotiated the biggest fences that Aintree has to offer (they are a little kinder now).
A marginal and not unreasonable re-assessment of his stats elevates him slightly above the posse on going that is Easy side of Good, as last year (though he is still place, not winning potential). His profile:
• A consistent but injury-prone chaser. If you discount the 2 runs prior to both injury lay-offs (i.e. the runs in which he probably was injured), other than his UR in the GN he has finished in the frame in 7 of 8 chases at 3m+ (the exception being to miss out by only 0.5L when 5th of 19 in the 2010 Bet365 [aka “Whitbread”])
• Versatile as regards ground and relishing a trip, he’s won two Class 1 3.25m chases, one on Soft, and was a strong finishing 2nd (by a head) in the 2010 William Hill Trophy at The Festival, run at a fast clip on decent ground.
• He was a creditable 14.5L 4th in the 2012 Hennessy won impressively by Bobs Worth in a rapid time for the GS going (he was seemingly beaten by turn of foot rather than stamina). He ran off a mark of OR147 that day and is off OR141 at Aintree (the same as when 2nd in the 2010 WHT chase).
• He has raced only once since returning from a year’s injury-absence, that being an admirable staying-on 3rd (8.75L) with 11.02 in the 25f handicap chase at The Festival 2 weeks ago, run in a time slightly faster than standard. He may, of course, be vulnerable to the notorious “bounce” (more like “flop”) on the 2nd run after return from injury. We’ll know on 5th April.
• In 9 hurdles and 16 chases, his UR in the 2010 GN is the only occasion on which he has tipped up and he had Graham Lee on board for the first time that day – Tom Scudamore presumably will ride at Aintree (made the frame 3 from 3 with him to date). He’s won or run well over the stiff fences of Cheltenham and Newbury.
• An 11y-o with 10.04 to carry and his last run (albeit his only run of the season) 25 days prior – in the sweet spot.
Only joking PM. Thanks for the detailed reply.
Regardless of the result this thread has been a good read.
Will look at the two favs on Betfair nearer the time.
Good luck all.
Also they had a mathmetician working out the winner today on H&J show who reckons the winner will be a horse with a name that starts with an M or an R!
T43 looks a lot bigger.
Whether that has any relevance is beyond me. Just thought i would mention it.
Peanuts, does size really matter?
Swing bill e/w £2.50
Mountainous e/w £5
The package e/w £5
Monbeg due win £5
T43 win £5
Been great reading all your info peanuts, good luck tomorrow !
You've gotta love the internet.
TitanBet paying top 6 each way. Free matched bet up to 50 quid and money back if horse falls in first nine fences. Odds seem as good as anyone?
What am I missing?
Well, CDR has won and finished a close 2nd over the GN fences (the latter being before the last changes to the fences) so no worries on size.
So far, thankfully, no serious injuries to horses but a few nasty bumps and bruises for jocks.
Whatever the result, let's hope that all 40 horses and jockies return safe and sound tomorrow.
Cheers for all the info and insights PM, best of luck tomorrow.