We used some of our money from lotto wins @ work to do the following:
Way Balthazar King @ 20/1 Shakalakaboomboom @ 25/1 Burton Port @ 20/1 Long Run @ 14/1 Chance Du Roy @ 33/1 The Rainbow Hunter @ 28/1 Lion Na Bearnai @ 28/1 (spanner picked this one)
All £5 e/w expect TRH which is £10 e/w
G - do your backed horses all still fall at the first, or have you got over that now??
Would the dude's hold up tactics be a hindrance in the National with faller/unseats etc all in front of him..?
Obviously makes him vulnerable to traffic problems but I suspect Carberry will try to have him mid div rather than out the back and try to get him into a rhythm. Slight myth about having to be handy in good ground GNs, though certainly want to be within striking distance by 2nd Canal Turn. Neptune Collonges and Don't Push It didn't make headway on the leaders from mid div until after the 1st circuit and they were both quick ground GNs. Amberleigh House came from way back to touch off Clan Royal (slightly fortuitously) in 2004, again on Good ground. It's his own jumping as much getting hampered by others that's at least as big a question.
paddy power matched my bet so have gone for tea for three - £10.00 ew monbeg dude - £10.00 ew chance du roy - £2.50 ew mountanious - £2.50 ew colbert station - £2.50 ew swing bill - £2.50
I made time of Foxhunters approx. 5m33s. That would be virtually Good ground. I reckon if they don't get rain overnight they may water. There is rain in the forecast and I think I see spots on the camera but they won't want it any faster than it is now.
If anyones got a stan james account, email freebie@stanjames.com with your username & DOB quoting 'MIRROR' or 'RECORD' (or both separately) you will get a free £5 in your account within an hour
Only just tuned into this thread so I hope I've read the abridged highlights correctly. Going all out with Peanuts' model. £5.00 e/w Bet Vic 6 places NRNB on Teaforthree, Monbeg Dude, Chance Du Roy, Mountainous, Swing Bill and Shakalakaboomboom.
Fingers crossed!
Strewth. Much appreciate the faith Exiled. Hope my model doesn't choose this year to go into meltdown. TBH, I scale my bets because of the range of odds. My aim every year is to have 2 making the frame (hopefully one coming home first of course) but if the stakes are level a T43 win (alone) would only be a breakeven with 5 others on the slip, which would be a shame. On the other hand, if Mountainous does the biz................................or if Bill does a Foinavon!....................... Best of luck.
I have absolute faith Peanuts. Been following your tips for the last 2 or 3 years and it's served me better than the old system of red & white silks or like the name of the horse. I only bet on the GN and World Cup/European Championships. Football I have some kind of working knowledge of, the Gee-gees less so. I just do it for a bit of fun and out of tradition as much as anything. I won't hold it against you if none of the bets come off!
Official time for Foxhunters shown as 5m29.4s but they now don't start the clock until they pass the starter, as opposed to when the tape is raised so a little leeway there. In any event, looks like it is riding Good ground. Going stick reading of 6.6 at lunchtime today, quicker than last evening. There is a fair bit of rain forecast this evening so should be tad slower tomorrow.
If anyones got a stan james account, email freebie@stanjames.com with your username & DOB quoting 'MIRROR' or 'RECORD' (or both separately) you will get a free £5 in your account within an hour
Our freebie promotion ended at 17.25 today and unfortunately you did not qualify.
We will be running another freebie promotion very soon.
So does good ground theoretically favour any of your selections over the others Peanuts?
From the model's perspective, if it were Good ground, it would not alter the top 3 (all with winning profiles) but it would slightly alter the rest (varying strength places candidates).
If it were genuine Good (and I hasten to add that it should not be genuine Good because it is Aintree's stated policy that the ground should be easier than Good at its quickest - the problem being that what they think is easier than Good may ride quicker than that, as today):
1. T43 2. Monbeg Dude 3. Chance Du Roy 4. (joint) Shakalakaboomboom, The Package, Long Run 7. (joint) Mountainous, Mr Moonshine, Pineau de Re
My model has different ratings for 4 types of going ("Good" [above] is the quickest) and the recommended selections I've given (and that I've based my own bets on) assume Going variants 2 & 3, namely "Easy side of Good" [that is, any mix of Good and GS] and "Good-to-Soft" [that is straight GS and any mix of GS and Soft]. Going 4 is Soft and worse.
Last year's GN was run on mix of Gd and GS and, according to the safety policy, they should be aiming for something similar this Saturday. Their problem is that they don't want to water and then have rainfall Saturday morning turning it Soft. I think they will be hoping for a decent drop of rain tonight to keep some juice in the ground as there is a fair bit of sunshine forecast tomorrow.
To recap, on "Easy side of Good" (as last year):
1. T43 2. Monbeg Dude 3. Chance Du Roy 4. Mountainous / The Package (though he is there by virtue of benefit of the doubt on a borderline stat) 6. (joint) Shakalakaboomboom / Long Run / Tidal Bay / Swing Bill
On Good-to-Soft (and any mix of GS and Soft):
1. T43 2. Monbeg Dude 3. Chance Du Roy 4. Mountainous 5. Swing Bill 6. (joint) The Package / Shakalakaboomboom / Tidal Bay
If it were to come up Soft or worse, only 2 win candidates:
1. T43 2. Monbeg Dude 3. (joint and best place poential) Tidal Bay / Mountainous
Best minor place potential: Shakalakboomboom, Chance Du Roy, Swing Bill, Hawkes Point and Big Shu
Sorry that's a long winded answer to a simple question! .................
If anyones got a stan james account, email freebie@stanjames.com with your username & DOB quoting 'MIRROR' or 'RECORD' (or both separately) you will get a free £5 in your account within an hour
Only just tuned into this thread so I hope I've read the abridged highlights correctly. Going all out with Peanuts' model. £5.00 e/w Bet Vic 6 places NRNB on Teaforthree, Monbeg Dude, Chance Du Roy, Mountainous, Swing Bill and Shakalakaboomboom.
Fingers crossed!
Strewth. Much appreciate the faith Exiled. Hope my model doesn't choose this year to go into meltdown. TBH, I scale my bets because of the range of odds. My aim every year is to have 2 making the frame (hopefully one coming home first of course) but if the stakes are level a T43 win (alone) would only be a breakeven with 5 others on the slip, which would be a shame. On the other hand, if Mountainous does the biz................................or if Bill does a Foinavon!....................... Best of luck.
I have absolute faith Peanuts. Been following your tips for the last 2 or 3 years and it's served me better than the old system of red & white silks or like the name of the horse. I only bet on the GN and World Cup/European Championships. Football I have some kind of working knowledge of, the Gee-gees less so. I just do it for a bit of fun and out of tradition as much as anything. I won't hold it against you if none of the bets come off!
Don't worry PM, I'm a scientist so I understand there are very few simple answers to simple questions! It's all very interesting anyway. I'm a sucker for the well informed opinions of an enthusiast, whatever the subject is.
So Peanuts i assume you would rate T43, Monbeg Dude and Chance Du Roy a good bet in combination forecasts. My system dismisses T43 as a potential winner due to running out of steam last year when he had the race won. I rate stamina and jumping ability above everything else.
So Peanuts i assume you would rate T43, Monbeg Dude and Chance Du Roy a good bet in combination forecasts. My system dismisses T43 as a potential winner due to running out of steam last year when he had the race won. I rate stamina and jumping ability above everything else.
TBH len, I don't do forecasts in the GN since misfortune can play too much of a role but, logically, if I were to do so I would use the model's ratings. I regard any of the model's selections that have stat-scores consistent with the stat-scores of previous winners as having the ability to win and I will back all of them with scaled stakes so that I am indifferent as to which one wins or gets placed. Obviously I'm hoping to get a more than one making the frame (I've had 3 doing so in good years) but I'd rather stick to a book of scaled e/w bets that presume do forecasts and presume that all get round without misfortune and none have an off day and there is no other runner that the model's missed that poops the party. The key for T43 is that he carries 5lbs less this time. No horse that has finished <10L of a GN winner has carried less weight in a subsequent GN (since at least 1988) and running off 10.12 is a massive difference to carrying 11.03. TBH I can't see how your system can put a line through T43 for tiring after the last and being a 10L 3rd but fancy Mr Moonshine who didn't complete last year and carries 7lbs more. Not saying Mr Moonshine can't finish ahead of T43 (anything's possible) but it seems inconsistent logic to me.
If anyones got a stan james account, email freebie@stanjames.com with your username & DOB quoting 'MIRROR' or 'RECORD' (or both separately) you will get a free £5 in your account within an hour
If anyones got a stan james account, email freebie@stanjames.com with your username & DOB quoting 'MIRROR' or 'RECORD' (or both separately) you will get a free £5 in your account within an hour
Thanks for that.
ditto
Spotted too late though... ;0(
I should think they will do them again in the next couple of days. Ive had 30 quid off them in the past week
Peanuts, what areas does 'The Rainbow Hunter' fall short on your model?
Seen the horse picked by a few people but can't see that you've mentioned it.
Sorry to be slow getting back steve, had a lot on today.
A few people fancy TRH, observing (among other things) that the horse finished (without its jockey, having UR'd at the 1st Canal Turn) alongside Auroras Encore last year. Ordinarily, Unseating or Falling in a prior GN on the first circuit (particularly at or before the Canal Turn) would be a big negative, unless there was a better run over the fences in another race. However, my model ignores his UR last time since he was hampered by another horse and it was that that largely caused the jockey to be ejected. The model rates TRH as having the potential to put in a bold show but not quite the credentials to put him in the shake up. Len is absolutely right about the 70 day break being a negative. Given that he's never won at beyond 25f stamina is unproven (especially since his only attempt at beyond 26f, other than the GN UR, was a struggling PU in last year's Bet365 [aka Whitbread]). With only 10.07 to carry that's not necessarily a negative on decent ground but it is when combined with the fact that he's never won a chase at a higher grade than Class 3 on Good ground (and only one Class 3 at a pace actually consistent with Good ground). That's a couple of moderate negatives and there are runners with plenty more and worse negatives than him. On the positive side, that was a good Listed Chase win at Donny in January (probably a career best) but he has gone up 8lbs in the handicap for that to OR144. He's had 5 chases at ORs above 136 and is yet to make the frame. Having said that, I think I'm right in saying that he had a wind op prior to his Donny win and so maybe he'll be able to show a higher level of form now. As I say to everyone, though my model's done a good job for me it has also invariably missed several horses each year running much better than it had anticipated and making the frame (even winning,..........difficult to believe I know!) So, if you fancy TRH, please don't let me put you off. Go with your fancy. He should give you a great run for your money and........who knows?
Comments
G - do your backed horses all still fall at the first, or have you got over that now??
Just want to know which ones to avoid!! ;-)
Slight myth about having to be handy in good ground GNs, though certainly want to be within striking distance by 2nd Canal Turn.
Neptune Collonges and Don't Push It didn't make headway on the leaders from mid div until after the 1st circuit and they were both quick ground GNs.
Amberleigh House came from way back to touch off Clan Royal (slightly fortuitously) in 2004, again on Good ground.
It's his own jumping as much getting hampered by others that's at least as big a question.
tea for three - £10.00 ew
monbeg dude - £10.00 ew
chance du roy - £2.50 ew
mountanious - £2.50 ew
colbert station - £2.50 ew
swing bill - £2.50
Edit - that wouldn't add up though because he's staked twice that. Two new accounts?
matched my 1st bet of 20
then i placed the 2 ew bets and they matched them again
not to sure why but certainly wont be complaining if any of them win.
We will be running another freebie promotion very soon.
If it were genuine Good (and I hasten to add that it should not be genuine Good because it is Aintree's stated policy that the ground should be easier than Good at its quickest - the problem being that what they think is easier than Good may ride quicker than that, as today):
1. T43
2. Monbeg Dude
3. Chance Du Roy
4. (joint) Shakalakaboomboom, The Package, Long Run
7. (joint) Mountainous, Mr Moonshine, Pineau de Re
My model has different ratings for 4 types of going ("Good" [above] is the quickest) and the recommended selections I've given (and that I've based my own bets on) assume Going variants 2 & 3, namely "Easy side of Good" [that is, any mix of Good and GS] and "Good-to-Soft" [that is straight GS and any mix of GS and Soft]. Going 4 is Soft and worse.
Last year's GN was run on mix of Gd and GS and, according to the safety policy, they should be aiming for something similar this Saturday. Their problem is that they don't want to water and then have rainfall Saturday morning turning it Soft. I think they will be hoping for a decent drop of rain tonight to keep some juice in the ground as there is a fair bit of sunshine forecast tomorrow.
To recap, on "Easy side of Good" (as last year):
1. T43
2. Monbeg Dude
3. Chance Du Roy
4. Mountainous / The Package (though he is there by virtue of benefit of the doubt on a borderline stat)
6. (joint) Shakalakaboomboom / Long Run / Tidal Bay / Swing Bill
On Good-to-Soft (and any mix of GS and Soft):
1. T43
2. Monbeg Dude
3. Chance Du Roy
4. Mountainous
5. Swing Bill
6. (joint) The Package / Shakalakaboomboom / Tidal Bay
If it were to come up Soft or worse, only 2 win candidates:
1. T43
2. Monbeg Dude
3. (joint and best place poential) Tidal Bay / Mountainous
Best minor place potential: Shakalakboomboom, Chance Du Roy, Swing Bill, Hawkes Point and Big Shu
Sorry that's a long winded answer to a simple question! .................
PM, you must seriously put some effort into all this - I hope you are loaded as a result.
At Cheltenham GC my millionaire boss went heavy on the winner because his millionaire dad has a house (one of many) on Lake Windermere.
They own horses, some with Sir AF, and the formula was "I have a house that resembles the horse name"
Seen the horse picked by a few people but can't see that you've mentioned it.
I regard any of the model's selections that have stat-scores consistent with the stat-scores of previous winners as having the ability to win and I will back all of them with scaled stakes so that I am indifferent as to which one wins or gets placed. Obviously I'm hoping to get a more than one making the frame (I've had 3 doing so in good years) but I'd rather stick to a book of scaled e/w bets that presume do forecasts and presume that all get round without misfortune and none have an off day and there is no other runner that the model's missed that poops the party.
The key for T43 is that he carries 5lbs less this time. No horse that has finished <10L of a GN winner has carried less weight in a subsequent GN (since at least 1988) and running off 10.12 is a massive difference to carrying 11.03.
TBH I can't see how your system can put a line through T43 for tiring after the last and being a 10L 3rd but fancy Mr Moonshine who didn't complete last year and carries 7lbs more. Not saying Mr Moonshine can't finish ahead of T43 (anything's possible) but it seems inconsistent logic to me.
Spotted too late though... ;0(
A few people fancy TRH, observing (among other things) that the horse finished (without its jockey, having UR'd at the 1st Canal Turn) alongside Auroras Encore last year. Ordinarily, Unseating or Falling in a prior GN on the first circuit (particularly at or before the Canal Turn) would be a big negative, unless there was a better run over the fences in another race. However, my model ignores his UR last time since he was hampered by another horse and it was that that largely caused the jockey to be ejected.
The model rates TRH as having the potential to put in a bold show but not quite the credentials to put him in the shake up.
Len is absolutely right about the 70 day break being a negative. Given that he's never won at beyond 25f stamina is unproven (especially since his only attempt at beyond 26f, other than the GN UR, was a struggling PU in last year's Bet365 [aka Whitbread]). With only 10.07 to carry that's not necessarily a negative on decent ground but it is when combined with the fact that he's never won a chase at a higher grade than Class 3 on Good ground (and only one Class 3 at a pace actually consistent with Good ground). That's a couple of moderate negatives and there are runners with plenty more and worse negatives than him.
On the positive side, that was a good Listed Chase win at Donny in January (probably a career best) but he has gone up 8lbs in the handicap for that to OR144. He's had 5 chases at ORs above 136 and is yet to make the frame.
Having said that, I think I'm right in saying that he had a wind op prior to his Donny win and so maybe he'll be able to show a higher level of form now.
As I say to everyone, though my model's done a good job for me it has also invariably missed several horses each year running much better than it had anticipated and making the frame (even winning,..........difficult to believe I know!)
So, if you fancy TRH, please don't let me put you off. Go with your fancy. He should give you a great run for your money and........who knows?