Ok, so it's T43, Monbeg Dude, Mountainous, The Package and Chance Du Roy for me as per Peanuts' modelling. £10 e/w on each and a bumper payday all round (hopefully). I need this after an appalling Cheltenham.
Cheers PM for adding some interest to the gloomy post-Xmas period.
Had a small punt on Vintage Star Peanuts. Just feel it has a touch of class and is well handicapped.
He's a grand horse and looks every inch a National type. If he'd have stood up at Cheltenham he would have been there or thereabouts on stats but got to stick with my model. Head (aka spreadsheet) must rule heart. Even so, his stat-profile suggests a bold show.
He will be 1st Reserve if there are no defections in the 40 at Thursday's declarations - it is then that the Reserves are established. He'll be guaranteed a run if at least 1 of the 40 above him now comes out at declarations or, if he is a Reserve, if one scratches by 9am Friday. So, very likely to run (#41 at this stage did in all of last 4 GNs) but always worth going NRNB (virtually all bookies are now NRNB) so that if he doesn't run for any reason you get your stake refunded.
Ok, so it's T43, Monbeg Dude, Mountainous, The Package and Chance Du Roy for me as per Peanuts' modelling. £10 e/w on each and a bumper payday all round (hopefully). I need this after an appalling Cheltenham.
Cheers PM for adding some interest to the gloomy post-Xmas period.
Good luck Chief and thanks for the vote of confidence. Hope this isn't the year it all goes pear shaped. I always tell myself not to dabble at Cheltenham because for every hot day punting at the Festival I have at least 3 cold ones. Ignored myself yet again of course. Time for Vic and Paddy to return (with interest) some of Mrs Molloy's holiday funds, temporarily in their keeping.
Going on the GN course late this afternoon was Good to Soft, a few Good places, Soft at the Canal Turn. Unsettled forecast for tomorrow and Thursday, dry but overcast Friday, showery Saturday. Mind you that's from the BBC Weather website so probably crap. Nonetheless, sufficient precipitation appears likely so as to keep it GS or thereabouts.
Softer ground might increase the chances of Last Time d'Albain opting for the Topham, which would guarantee Bill a run.
Can someone please explain the difference between Betfair and Betfair Sportsbook? Betfair seem to offer a better price on just about everything.
Have only used Betfair Sportsbook once but I assume it's Betfair acting as a bookie (laying as a Principal), rather than as an Exchange where other punters are the layers. Open to correction if that isn't right. Only used it once because, like a lot of small bookies, the maximum ante post stake on my selection was irritatingly small.
PS Looks like your advice re Monbeg Dude was spot on len. Tightening all the time and could easily flip flop with T43 come Saturday. Though AP looks like he's leaning towards the 8y-o "77" rather than risk another bone-crushing exit on Colbert Station. ;0)
Yes that could be an attempt by Betfair to grab a bigger share of the market. Anything connected with Royalty or a celebrity always attracts money. I see the Dude is only 5/2 to start favourite. I don't really fancy anything AP is being linked with. But Burton Port and Wayward Prince are two i am considering for a combination forecast.
I have had a punt on the GN for the last 45 years and have yet to pick the winner, I even backed Red Rum when it lost. I have not decided yet on my next loser; but apologies to anyone who has a punt on the same nag as me.
Can someone please explain the difference between Betfair and Betfair Sportsbook? Betfair seem to offer a better price on just about everything.
Having previously worked for Betfair in the horseracing department for over 10 years I can give you a couple of simple answers to the question and reasons for having both:
The company felt that it would be a good way to introduce punters who were used to using traditional bookmakers and that those customers might then migrate to using the Exchange. It also allowed them to offer markets where layers on the Exchange weren't providing sufficient liquidity to make those markets viable to run.
And of course there is a bigger profit margin if the customer chose not to use the Exchange!
I have had a punt on the GN for the last 45 years and have yet to pick the winner, I even backed Red Rum when it lost. I have not decided yet on my next loser; but apologies to anyone who has a punt on the same nag as me.
Be sure to give as steer pettgra. I may have to develop a new negative stat in my model - the "pettgra finger of doom" ;o) Better luck this year.
Thanks peanuts, a terrific and coherent analysis as always
Too kind Lincs. Always happy to share my model's prognostications though, without doubt, one of these days my system is going to draw a complete blank. Till then at least, I've just got to go with it.........................fingers crossed.
Sportingbet (for whatever reason - gathering new accounts presumably) have lengthened their prices on most GN runners and are now sole top price on a number (all 5 places e/w NRNB):
T43 10 Rocky Creek 22 PdB 22 Pineau de Re 22 Triolo d'Alene 22 Lion Na Bearnai 40 Hawkes Point 50 Alvarado 50 Mr Moonshine 50 Mountainous 50 Vintage Star 50 Buckers Bridge 66 Swing Bill 80 Golan Way 80 Lost Glory 80 Twirling Magnet 80
I have had a punt on the GN for the last 45 years and have yet to pick the winner, I even backed Red Rum when it lost. I have not decided yet on my next loser; but apologies to anyone who has a punt on the same nag as me.
Be sure to give as steer pettgra. I may have to develop a new negative stat in my model - the "pettgra finger of doom" ;o) Better luck this year.
Will do Peanuts. I am going to purposely avoid the ones that you selected as I would rather lose than put the jonah on them. Or just maybe I will not, because this could be the first of many. Hope you and all the above lifers stuff the bookies.
I have had a punt on the GN for the last 45 years and have yet to pick the winner, I even backed Red Rum when it lost. I have not decided yet on my next loser; but apologies to anyone who has a punt on the same nag as me.
Be sure to give as steer pettgra. I may have to develop a new negative stat in my model - the "pettgra finger of doom" ;o) Better luck this year.
Will do Peanuts. I am going to purposely avoid the ones that you selected as I would rather lose than put the jonah on them. Or just maybe I will not, because this could be the first of many. Hope you and all the above lifers stuff the bookies.
Cheers Chief, There is definitely such a thing as mean reversion. Maybe 45 years is a long time to wait for it to take effect but once pettgra gets on a roll........Vic and Paddy are gonna take one helluva beating!
Sportingbet (for whatever reason - gathering new accounts presumably) have lengthened their prices on most GN runners and are now sole top price on a number (all 5 places e/w NRNB):
T43 10 Rocky Creek 22 PdB 22 Pineau de Re 22 Triolo d'Alene 22 Lion Na Bearnai 40 Hawkes Point 50 Alvarado 50 Mr Moonshine 50 Mountainous 50 Vintage Star 50 Buckers Bridge 66 Swing Bill 80 Golan Way 80 Lost Glory 80 Twirling Magnet 80
sportingbet also sole top price Monbeg Dude & Long Run, both 16/1 Would think it won't last long.
Comments
Cheers PM for adding some interest to the gloomy post-Xmas period.
Even so, his stat-profile suggests a bold show.
He'll be guaranteed a run if at least 1 of the 40 above him now comes out at declarations or, if he is a Reserve, if one scratches by 9am Friday.
So, very likely to run (#41 at this stage did in all of last 4 GNs) but always worth going NRNB (virtually all bookies are now NRNB) so that if he doesn't run for any reason you get your stake refunded.
I always tell myself not to dabble at Cheltenham because for every hot day punting at the Festival I have at least 3 cold ones. Ignored myself yet again of course. Time for Vic and Paddy to return (with interest) some of Mrs Molloy's holiday funds, temporarily in their keeping.
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Hollywood/@52.3918148,-1.8802387,15z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x4870bed42d03b3f3:0xe583e813d1de2909
no regrets from me if they dont come in , only bet what u would have peeshed up the wall anyway.
10 ew on each one
Unsettled forecast for tomorrow and Thursday, dry but overcast Friday, showery Saturday. Mind you that's from the BBC Weather website so probably crap. Nonetheless, sufficient precipitation appears likely so as to keep it GS or thereabouts.
Softer ground might increase the chances of Last Time d'Albain opting for the Topham, which would guarantee Bill a run.
Open to correction if that isn't right.
Only used it once because, like a lot of small bookies, the maximum ante post stake on my selection was irritatingly small.
PS Looks like your advice re Monbeg Dude was spot on len. Tightening all the time and could easily flip flop with T43 come Saturday. Though AP looks like he's leaning towards the 8y-o "77" rather than risk another bone-crushing exit on Colbert Station. ;0)
I have not decided yet on my next loser; but apologies to anyone who has a punt on the same nag as me.
Sportsbook appeared soon after betfair swallowed up bluesquare.
The company felt that it would be a good way to introduce punters who were used to using traditional bookmakers and that those customers might then migrate to using the Exchange. It also allowed them to offer markets where layers on the Exchange weren't providing sufficient liquidity to make those markets viable to run.
And of course there is a bigger profit margin if the customer chose not to use the Exchange!
I may have to develop a new negative stat in my model - the "pettgra finger of doom" ;o)
Better luck this year.
Always happy to share my model's prognostications though, without doubt, one of these days my system is going to draw a complete blank. Till then at least, I've just got to go with it.........................fingers crossed.
T43 10
Rocky Creek 22
PdB 22
Pineau de Re 22
Triolo d'Alene 22
Lion Na Bearnai 40
Hawkes Point 50
Alvarado 50
Mr Moonshine 50
Mountainous 50
Vintage Star 50
Buckers Bridge 66
Swing Bill 80
Golan Way 80
Lost Glory 80
Twirling Magnet 80
http://www.leamingtonobserver.co.uk/2014/04/02/news-Hatton-Adventure-World's-wooly-jumpers-predict-Grand-National-winner-101035.html
Or just maybe I will not, because this could be the first of many. Hope you and all the above lifers stuff the bookies.
There is definitely such a thing as mean reversion.
Maybe 45 years is a long time to wait for it to take effect but once pettgra gets on a roll........Vic and Paddy are gonna take one helluva beating!
Would think it won't last long.