Hi Peanuts, Where do Rocky Creek and Double Seven fall short on your model?
Sorry to be slow replying Gary, been a bit tied up with all-things Budget.
ROCKY CREEK (8 y-o 11-05)
A terrific young chaser but the combination of youth, inexperience and weight is the problem.
Positives: • Excellent Strike Rate (wins & near-misses) in 3m+ chases of 71% and only once failed to make the frame in 7 chases (and that was 3rd of 6 to Dynaste in the Gr2 Novice chase at Aintree a year ago)
• Excellent close 2nd in the Hennessy with 11.05 in a quick time (will be better-off at the weights vs Triolo d’Alene in the GN).
Negatives: • Youth. 8y-os have a hot and cold record in the GN; invariably cold on Soft or worse but, even on decent ground, the last 8y-o winner was in 2002 and only 2 have won since 1988. 3 others have come within 4L of the GN winner but two of these were runner-up to the 8y-o winners and the last was in 2007 (McKelvey). None have made 1st~6th in the last 3 GNs and none have been <10L of the winner since 2008. Of course, 8y-os will win again but it is a negative, particularly with his other stats.
• Weight. Carrying 11.05 to win the GN is a big ask and those that succeed have existing form at marathon trips. Since 1988, all 12 horses that carried 11.02+ to be 1st~3rd or finished <10 of the GN winner had very solid form at 3.75m+ or had run creditably in a prior GN.
• Trip. Those carrying big weights to finish 1st~3rd or <10L do include 2 8y-os (Whats Up Boys, 0.75L 2nd in 2002 with 11.06 and Royal Auclair, 14L 2nd in 2005 with 11.10). Like RC, both had had success in the Hennessy but both also had solid form at 30f (WUB 4th 10L in the Welsh National and RAuc close 2nd in the Whitbread). RC is unraced beyond 27f. Of course, he may get the GN trip first time but his marked weakening up the hill in the 3.25m Argento on Heavy in his last run didn’t suggest limitless stamina and there is little in his pedigree to do so.
• Experience. The age factor is as much a mental as physical maturity issue. Relatively few miles on the clock doesn’t help, again particularly with a big weight. RC has had 7 chases and 3 hurdles. Of the 25 horses placed 1st~6th in the GN since 1988 that carried 11.02+, none was as inexperienced as RC (Suny Bay the fewest runs with 20, including 3 PtPs). Even fellow 8y-os Royal Auclair (23 chases) and accomplished hurdler WUB (22 races under rules, including 10 chases) were considerably more experienced.
• Other stats. Only 2 runs in the season (even though both fine runs) and the last being 70 days prior to Aintree (pre-weights’ announcement) are both negatives for any runner. 4+ is the ideal number of season’s runs and 56 days prior for the last prep is max for any GN winner since 1988 (the majority of GN winners had their final prep 35 days prior or less). By comparison with successful highly-weighted 8y-os, WUB and RA had run 4 and 6 times respectively before Aintree, the last being 23 and 22 days (resp) prior.
I have to say that the combination of negatives is sufficiently strong that the model doesn’t rate his chances of being in the shake-up. HOWEVER, it is not a crystal ball and, like records and promises, stats are there to be broken. Rocky Creek is a fine chaser and, if you fancy him, do not let my musings put you off.
DOUBLE SEVEN (8 y-o 10.11)
From the family of the stout staying-chaser Cahervillahow, he is another 8y-o though, carrying 10.11 and with 27 runs under rules to date, his age isn’t a specific negative.
Positives:
• Having a fine season with 5 wins from 7 runs, including the Grade A Munster National (a slight misnomer as it is only over 3m) and having been on the go over last summer. He had an OK-ish prep (6th 17.5L in a 21f Grade 34 days prior but would have boosted his stats further if that had been a better show.
Negatives:
DS has just one negative, but it is a whopper.
• Course Experience. In his 16 chases DS has never made the frame in any at a Left-handed track (3 attempts). He has also never made the frame at any of the 3 major Irish jumps tracks of Leopardstown (1 attempt), Punchestown (2 attempts) and Fairyhouse. Of course, his limited number of attempts mitigates this negative to some extent but it is a fact that no horse has made the frame in any GN since 1988, even hailing from across the puddle, that had not run well in a chase at one of the major UK LH chase courses (Aintree, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Newbury, Wetherby or Haydock [pre-07]) or one of the 3 major Irish jumps tracks or run creditably over the GN course.
Have to say (and this is the kiss of death for my selections) that the Irish challenge, according to the model, is a very ordinary one indeed this year. However, Double Seven and (particularly) Mossey Joe both have the ability to embarrass it on the "Course Experience Stat" if they take to the GN fences and occasion.
Surprised Mullins took OHO & Boston Bob out...must be confident that PDB will finally line up having been ante post fav last two season.
I don't know but I'm assuming that Boston Bob has a niggle because Mullins was talking about him running at Aintree for the Wylies when saying that OHO would head to Punchestown. I was surprised to seem him scratched as well.
Relieved to see that Chance Du Roy does not have an entry for the Topham on 3 April, thereby removing the temptation to opt for the shorter race. I have him NRNB but, naturally, I'd like to see him take on the GN trip.
Mossey Joe will run in the Foxhunters and not the GN, according to his owner after MJ won a PtP at Dromahane on Monday - his first start for Enda Bolger.
Presumably the shortening up of Sunnyhillboy by many bookies to 20/1 indicates that AP is leaning towards him as his GN ride. Should go a lot better than last year but stats (including no chase win or near miss since his close 2nd in the 2012 GN & only 2 runs this season, the last in December) suggest a decent show but not figuring at the business end, with or without the Champion Jockey.
Peanuts - what would you? Take 40-1 on 5 places or 33-1 on 6 places? That's my current dilemma re Chance Du Roy.
LOL. Oh Lord. Short answer, it's a personal choice and no doubt other would always go for the highest odds but I would take 33/1 [6 places]. I was lucky enough to get on CdR when he was briefly 40/1 when Vic first went 6 places but it didn't last long. The thing is, I am a % oriented punter, certainly when it comes to the GN - I'm not looking to shoot the lights out but to make a profit every year. I create a book using bookies and Betfair, weighted stakes so that I am indifferent between my selections and if 1 of them makes 1st~4th (Betfair place is just 1st~4th) I breakeven at least and make a nice profit if it's the winner of course. Actually I'm aiming to have the winner and 1 other place to make an even better profit. So, generally speaking, having the extra place (albeit at shorter price) is a big plus, though without the Betfair Place contribution, if the horse comes 5th or 6th and that's my only one in the money I'll probably only recoup c.75% of my total stakes. The benefit of the extra place(s) is the boost it can give to profits, as last year when Swing Bill came home 6th at 80/1 to add to the returns from Cappa Bleu and T43. For the likes of T43 and the Dude I wanted to take the early prices on them but, even so, I took T43 at 20/1 for 5 places when he was 25/1 for 4 places. For the longer-priced selections (ever since I missed out by 1 place on e/w bets on long shots Feels Like Gold in 1999 [ante-post 200/1] and Spotthedifference in 2004 [ante-post 100/1]) I've tried to wait (especially if it was unlikely they would attract much market support) for the extra place to be offered. I guess Swing Bill last year proved the point for me again but there's no right and wrong answer.
Praying the ground is better than soft as have jumped on Chance du Roy at 40s (6 places). On Chance, Monbeg and T43 now.
Well CAFCsayer, the thing going for us if it were to be Soft or worse is that in the 3 last Soft~Heavy ground GNs (2006, Soft on time-based going, 1997 and 1994 but excl 2001), the number of finishers were 9, 6 and 6 respectively and 1st and 6th were separated by a distance in all 3 cases. Only 2 made it home without having fallen or unseated in the 2001 GN on desperate ground and the winner (Red Marauder) had never won a chase at beyond 21 furlongs and had a poor jumping record. Importantly, CdR acts on soft ground and we know he's not daunted by the fences, it is just would he get a trip well beyond what he's ever attempted on testing ground? That's a big concern but so many fail to complete in Soft~Hvy GNs (including horses that can get the trip in the conditions but get unlucky) that one or two unlikely horses could make the paying places getting round in their own time. The model only identifies T43, the Dude, Mountainous and Tidal Bay as the serious win candidates on Soft~Heavy and Hawkes Point as a remote minor place candidate but (with Pete The Feat and Seabass scratched) it reckons that nothing else is likely to be in the same county when the winner crosses the line. CdR could be a straggler walking over the line 5th or 6th )
BetVic make Burton Port 16/1 4th favourite....... I think that deserves a "Holy Cow"
Jonjo's favourite bookmaker is BetVic ;-)
I see, a 6th place shrewdie ;o) Can't see Vic taking much cash for him at 16s with several at 33s (even I wouldn't sacrifice that for the extra berth). Will be interesting to see how BP gets on without AP.
I see the £100+ long-offered for Shaka on the Betfair Place mkt (only 1~4 places) at 11s got taken last night. Henderson back from his Swiss holiday with too much kirsch in his system no doubt. According to the Grauniad, he intends to run all 4 entries: Long Run, Triolo, Hunt Ball and Shaka.
Surprised Mullins took OHO & Boston Bob out...must be confident that PDB will finally line up having been ante post fav last two season.
I don't know but I'm assuming that Boston Bob has a niggle because Mullins was talking about him running at Aintree for the Wylies when saying that OHO would head to Punchestown. I was surprised to seem him scratched as well.
Surprised Mullins took OHO & Boston Bob out...must be confident that PDB will finally line up having been ante post fav last two season.
I don't know but I'm assuming that Boston Bob has a niggle because Mullins was talking about him running at Aintree for the Wylies when saying that OHO would head to Punchestown. I was surprised to seem him scratched as well.
Now significant support for PDB.
I think the Irish are a bit stretched to find a credible candidate. Looks like Colbert Station, Roi Du Mee and Bog Warrior may not line up, judging by the fact that they have entries for a Grade 2 chase at Navan at the weekend. If it were Soft~Heavy Big Shu would have a squeak of making the frame.
So as I can't bear to read/hear what Peanuts has to say at the best of times but still want a good tip
1. When is the GN? 2. Who should I back to win 3. Who should I back to place 4. What's the best proper bookies in Bromley to make a proper man's bet on a bit of paper handing cash over a counter in a grubby "turf accountants". None of this poncy on-line betting.
2. If you must back one to Win only it has to be TEAFORTHREE (10/1) - if you're only going to have 3 running for you, I would still back him e/w 5 places (Bet365, Boylesports, Sportingbet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) but scale the stakes according to the odds.
3. MONBEG DUDE (20/1 - 5 e/w places with Bet365, SkyBet & Boylesports or 16/1 - 6 e/w places with BetVic) AND (providing the going is better than Soft - probable) CHANCE DU ROY (40/1 - 5 e/w places Sportingbet or 33/1 - 6 e/w places BetVic)
4. Now I know you've got just about enough intelligence to open your mouth when you want to eat but DON'T BET EACH WAY WITH LADBROKES OR WILLIAM HILL - they only pay 4 places. Remember how irritable you were when you missed out on 6th place Swing Bill last year and Hello Bud 5th in 2010.
PS There will probably be another selection coming nearer the time, depending on the going. I have Shakalakaboomboom on my betting slip as an ante-post at 50/1 - he didn't have the greatest of final preps so doesn't have a Winner's profile (as the 3 above do) but is still a decent place candidate - one of a posse of half a dozen with similar stat-ratings and next below the top 3. However, depending on the specific going, one of them may pop out as the clear 4th best.
Comments
ROCKY CREEK (8 y-o 11-05)
A terrific young chaser but the combination of youth, inexperience and weight is the problem.
Positives:
• Excellent Strike Rate (wins & near-misses) in 3m+ chases of 71% and only once failed to make the frame in 7 chases (and that was 3rd of 6 to Dynaste in the Gr2 Novice chase at Aintree a year ago)
• Excellent close 2nd in the Hennessy with 11.05 in a quick time (will be better-off at the weights vs Triolo d’Alene in the GN).
Negatives:
• Youth. 8y-os have a hot and cold record in the GN; invariably cold on Soft or worse but, even on decent ground, the last 8y-o winner was in 2002 and only 2 have won since 1988. 3 others have come within 4L of the GN winner but two of these were runner-up to the 8y-o winners and the last was in 2007 (McKelvey). None have made 1st~6th in the last 3 GNs and none have been <10L of the winner since 2008. Of course, 8y-os will win again but it is a negative, particularly with his other stats.
• Weight. Carrying 11.05 to win the GN is a big ask and those that succeed have existing form at marathon trips. Since 1988, all 12 horses that carried 11.02+ to be 1st~3rd or finished <10 of the GN winner had very solid form at 3.75m+ or had run creditably in a prior GN.
• Trip. Those carrying big weights to finish 1st~3rd or <10L do include 2 8y-os (Whats Up Boys, 0.75L 2nd in 2002 with 11.06 and Royal Auclair, 14L 2nd in 2005 with 11.10). Like RC, both had had success in the Hennessy but both also had solid form at 30f (WUB 4th 10L in the Welsh National and RAuc close 2nd in the Whitbread). RC is unraced beyond 27f. Of course, he may get the GN trip first time but his marked weakening up the hill in the 3.25m Argento on Heavy in his last run didn’t suggest limitless stamina and there is little in his pedigree to do so.
• Experience. The age factor is as much a mental as physical maturity issue. Relatively few miles on the clock doesn’t help, again particularly with a big weight. RC has had 7 chases and 3 hurdles. Of the 25 horses placed 1st~6th in the GN since 1988 that carried 11.02+, none was as inexperienced as RC (Suny Bay the fewest runs with 20, including 3 PtPs). Even fellow 8y-os Royal Auclair (23 chases) and accomplished hurdler WUB (22 races under rules, including 10 chases) were considerably more experienced.
• Other stats. Only 2 runs in the season (even though both fine runs) and the last being 70 days prior to Aintree (pre-weights’ announcement) are both negatives for any runner. 4+ is the ideal number of season’s runs and 56 days prior for the last prep is max for any GN winner since 1988 (the majority of GN winners had their final prep 35 days prior or less). By comparison with successful highly-weighted 8y-os, WUB and RA had run 4 and 6 times respectively before Aintree, the last being 23 and 22 days (resp) prior.
I have to say that the combination of negatives is sufficiently strong that the model doesn’t rate his chances of being in the shake-up. HOWEVER, it is not a crystal ball and, like records and promises, stats are there to be broken. Rocky Creek is a fine chaser and, if you fancy him, do not let my musings put you off.
DOUBLE SEVEN (8 y-o 10.11)
From the family of the stout staying-chaser Cahervillahow, he is another 8y-o though, carrying 10.11 and with 27 runs under rules to date, his age isn’t a specific negative.
Positives:
• Having a fine season with 5 wins from 7 runs, including the Grade A Munster National (a slight misnomer as it is only over 3m) and having been on the go over last summer. He had an OK-ish prep (6th 17.5L in a 21f Grade
Negatives:
DS has just one negative, but it is a whopper.
• Course Experience. In his 16 chases DS has never made the frame in any at a Left-handed track (3 attempts). He has also never made the frame at any of the 3 major Irish jumps tracks of Leopardstown (1 attempt), Punchestown (2 attempts) and Fairyhouse. Of course, his limited number of attempts mitigates this negative to some extent but it is a fact that no horse has made the frame in any GN since 1988, even hailing from across the puddle, that had not run well in a chase at one of the major UK LH chase courses (Aintree, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Newbury, Wetherby or Haydock [pre-07]) or one of the 3 major Irish jumps tracks or run creditably over the GN course.
Have to say (and this is the kiss of death for my selections) that the Irish challenge, according to the model, is a very ordinary one indeed this year. However, Double Seven and (particularly) Mossey Joe both have the ability to embarrass it on the "Course Experience Stat" if they take to the GN fences and occasion.
Should go a lot better than last year but stats (including no chase win or near miss since his close 2nd in the 2012 GN & only 2 runs this season, the last in December) suggest a decent show but not figuring at the business end, with or without the Champion Jockey.
Short answer, it's a personal choice and no doubt other would always go for the highest odds but I would take 33/1 [6 places].
I was lucky enough to get on CdR when he was briefly 40/1 when Vic first went 6 places but it didn't last long.
The thing is, I am a % oriented punter, certainly when it comes to the GN - I'm not looking to shoot the lights out but to make a profit every year. I create a book using bookies and Betfair, weighted stakes so that I am indifferent between my selections and if 1 of them makes 1st~4th (Betfair place is just 1st~4th) I breakeven at least and make a nice profit if it's the winner of course. Actually I'm aiming to have the winner and 1 other place to make an even better profit. So, generally speaking, having the extra place (albeit at shorter price) is a big plus, though without the Betfair Place contribution, if the horse comes 5th or 6th and that's my only one in the money I'll probably only recoup c.75% of my total stakes. The benefit of the extra place(s) is the boost it can give to profits, as last year when Swing Bill came home 6th at 80/1 to add to the returns from Cappa Bleu and T43.
For the likes of T43 and the Dude I wanted to take the early prices on them but, even so, I took T43 at 20/1 for 5 places when he was 25/1 for 4 places.
For the longer-priced selections (ever since I missed out by 1 place on e/w bets on long shots Feels Like Gold in 1999 [ante-post 200/1] and Spotthedifference in 2004 [ante-post 100/1]) I've tried to wait (especially if it was unlikely they would attract much market support) for the extra place to be offered.
I guess Swing Bill last year proved the point for me again but there's no right and wrong answer.
Importantly, CdR acts on soft ground and we know he's not daunted by the fences, it is just would he get a trip well beyond what he's ever attempted on testing ground?
That's a big concern but so many fail to complete in Soft~Hvy GNs (including horses that can get the trip in the conditions but get unlucky) that one or two unlikely horses could make the paying places getting round in their own time.
The model only identifies T43, the Dude, Mountainous and Tidal Bay as the serious win candidates on Soft~Heavy and Hawkes Point as a remote minor place candidate but (with Pete The Feat and Seabass scratched) it reckons that nothing else is likely to be in the same county when the winner crosses the line. CdR could be a straggler walking over the line 5th or 6th
Can't see Vic taking much cash for him at 16s with several at 33s (even I wouldn't sacrifice that for the extra berth). Will be interesting to see how BP gets on without AP.
According to the Grauniad, he intends to run all 4 entries: Long Run, Triolo, Hunt Ball and Shaka.
http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/racing/bookmakers-don-t-fancy-an-irish-victory-in-aintree-national-saturday-week-1.1736421
1. When is the GN?
2. Who should I back to win
3. Who should I back to place
4. What's the best proper bookies in Bromley to make a proper man's bet on a bit of paper handing cash over a counter in a grubby "turf accountants". None of this poncy on-line betting.
1. 5 April
2. If you must back one to Win only it has to be TEAFORTHREE (10/1) - if you're only going to have 3 running for you, I would still back him e/w 5 places (Bet365, Boylesports, Sportingbet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) but scale the stakes according to the odds.
3. MONBEG DUDE (20/1 - 5 e/w places with Bet365, SkyBet & Boylesports or 16/1 - 6 e/w places with BetVic) AND (providing the going is better than Soft - probable) CHANCE DU ROY (40/1 - 5 e/w places Sportingbet or 33/1 - 6 e/w places BetVic)
4. Now I know you've got just about enough intelligence to open your mouth when you want to eat but DON'T BET EACH WAY WITH LADBROKES OR WILLIAM HILL - they only pay 4 places. Remember how irritable you were when you missed out on 6th place Swing Bill last year and Hello Bud 5th in 2010.
PS There will probably be another selection coming nearer the time, depending on the going. I have Shakalakaboomboom on my betting slip as an ante-post at 50/1 - he didn't have the greatest of final preps so doesn't have a Winner's profile (as the 3 above do) but is still a decent place candidate - one of a posse of half a dozen with similar stat-ratings and next below the top 3. However, depending on the specific going, one of them may pop out as the clear 4th best.