2. If you must back one to Win only it has to be TEAFORTHREE (10/1) - if you're only going to have 3 running for you, I would still back him e/w 5 places (Bet365, Boylesports, Sportingbet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) but scale the stakes according to the odds.
3. MONBEG DUDE (20/1 - 5 e/w places with Bet365, SkyBet & Boylesports or 16/1 - 6 e/w places with BetVic) AND (providing the going is better than Soft - probable) CHANCE DU ROY (40/1 - 5 e/w places Sportingbet or 33/1 - 6 e/w places BetVic)
4. Now I know you've got just about enough intelligence to open your mouth when you want to eat but DON'T BET EACH WAY WITH LADBROKES OR WILLIAM HILL - they only pay 4 places. Remember how irritable you were when you missed out on 6th place Swing Bill last year and Hello Bud 5th in 2010.
PS There will probably be another selection coming nearer the time, depending on the going. I have Shakalakaboomboom on my betting slip as an ante-post at 50/1 - he didn't have the greatest of final preps so doesn't have a Winner's profile (as the 3 above do) but is still a decent place candidate - one of a posse of half a dozen with similar stat-ratings and next below the top 3. However, depending on the specific going, one of them may pop out as the clear 4th best.
PM - I'm really not sure Henry will have sufficient time between now and the GN to digest and act upon that info.
Also, I can't find anywhere your disclaimer because, as sure are eggs are eggs, someone on here is going to sue you for misadvice.
And frankly the last thing I need is a spate of calls along the lines of "Have you ever been given any tips from PeanutsMolloy that failed to win you £10 million pounds. If so please press 5 for assistance...................."
2. If you must back one to Win only it has to be TEAFORTHREE (10/1) - if you're only going to have 3 running for you, I would still back him e/w 5 places (Bet365, Boylesports, Sportingbet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) but scale the stakes according to the odds.
3. MONBEG DUDE (20/1 - 5 e/w places with Bet365, SkyBet & Boylesports or 16/1 - 6 e/w places with BetVic) AND (providing the going is better than Soft - probable) CHANCE DU ROY (40/1 - 5 e/w places Sportingbet or 33/1 - 6 e/w places BetVic)
4. Now I know you've got just about enough intelligence to open your mouth when you want to eat but DON'T BET EACH WAY WITH LADBROKES OR WILLIAM HILL - they only pay 4 places. Remember how irritable you were when you missed out on 6th place Swing Bill last year and Hello Bud 5th in 2010.
PS There will probably be another selection coming nearer the time, depending on the going. I have Shakalakaboomboom on my betting slip as an ante-post at 50/1 - he didn't have the greatest of final preps so doesn't have a Winner's profile (as the 3 above do) but is still a decent place candidate - one of a posse of half a dozen with similar stat-ratings and next below the top 3. However, depending on the specific going, one of them may pop out as the clear 4th best.
PM - I'm really not sure Henry will have sufficient time between now and the GN to digest and act upon that info.
Also, I can't find anywhere your disclaimer because, as sure are eggs are eggs, someone on here is going to sue you for misadvice.
And frankly the last thing I need is a spate of calls along the lines of "Have you ever been given any tips from PeanutsMolloy that failed to win you £10 million pounds. If so please press 5 for assistance...................."
Come on AA. Surely everyone knows that, ahead of time, only Jonjo knows which horse is going to win the GN ;o)
No, you are quite right.
PLEASE NOTE ALL -
1. ALL GRAND NATIONAL TIPS GIVEN BY ONE PEANUTSMOLLOY MAY HAVE BEEN DERIVED NOT BY THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RACING CAREERS OF RUNNERS BUT FROM THE LOCATION OF DEPOSITS OF EMISSIONS FROM HIS DOG UPON A GRAND NATIONAL SWEEPSTAKE KIT LAID OUT ON THE FLOOR OF HIS SHED. HOWEVER DERIVED, THEY MAY PROVE TO BE UTTER BOLLOCKS.
2. AS HE TOO WILL HAVE DONE HIS DOUGH AND WILL HAVE INCURRED THE DREAD WRATH OF ONE MRS P MOLLOY, NO LIABILITY CAN BE ACCEPTED IN THE EVENT THAT HIS AFOREMENTIONED STATISTICAL "MODEL" BURSTS INTO FLAMES & CAREERS OFF THE ROAD INTO A DITCH.
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY - DON'T BACK A 7 YEAR-OLD IN THE GRAND NATIONAL & ALWAYS TAKE THE 5TH EACH-WAY PLACE.
So, with T43, Monbeg Dude and (on better than Soft) Chance Du Roy the 3 Win selections, is there a sexy 4th to add (hopefully at an attractive price) to the slip?
For those, like me, with SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM on their betting slip e/w at 40~50/1 [5 places] there’s no cause to regret the selection. His final 2 preps were disappointing and failed to elevate his stats to a Winner’s profile but, by virtue of a good 3m+ strike rate, never having tipped up, 2 creditable runs over the GN fences and a featherweight 10.03 to carry this time, he most certainly retains decent place potential. Importantly, there are precedents for horses with a proven liking for Aintree but similar or even bigger question-marks over their form and/or fitness that made the frame in the GN: • In 1997 Buckboard Bounce [40/1] was 4th (29L behind winner Lord Gyllene but less than 4L behind 2nd) and former Gold Cup winner Master Oats carried top-weight [at 25/1] to be 2L further back in 5th. Both had decent form over the GN fences but had just returned from a year+ out with injury and had shown absolutely nothing in their preps. • Last year, Oscar Time (2011 GN runner-up but hadn’t made the frame since, including in 4 runs in the 12/13 season since returning from a year out with injury and culminating in a forlorn 101L last of 17 in his final prep) ran a blinder back at Aintree to come home 4th (off the same mark and with 2lbs more weight than when 2nd to Ballabriggs). Shaka will run with 9lbs less than when, as an 8y-o, he was a very creditable (prominent for a long way) 28L 9th in the 2012 GN. Having said all of that, I have to confess that he hardly looks attractively priced at 33/1 on his last 2 runs and, while I’m happy to stay with him, it's worth enquiring whether there is another interesting candidate for 4th.
Shaka is one of a posse of 6-7 runners all with similar stat-scores, consistent with making the frame but not winning the GN. Since the final preps were run, I’ve tried to identify any runner from the posse or thereabouts that has a stat that is so borderline that a minor change of the algorithm (back-tested to ensure potential validity) would push it slightly higher in the ratings on ground that is any variant of going better than Soft. The resulting candidates:
MOUNTAINOUS – 40/1 [5 places & NRNB] – BUT MAY NOT RUN He is the strongest candidate on existing stats for 4th selection BUT his trainer has stated that he is more likely to go for the Irish rather than Aintree National and would not run anywhere if it wasn’t Soft or softer. He’s been kept in at two Forfeit Stages, costing £1,000 each time, but presumably is likely to be scratched at Monday’s Confirmation Stage. If not, it may be that his connections are having a change of heart and, if so, he should be backed NRNB. While his stat-profile is stronger the softer the ground, it is clear 4th best on GS (winning profile in fact) and joint 4th best on last year’s going of a mix of Good/GS. Why? Well, only 1 of his 9 chases has been run on ground that wasn’t officially Soft or Heavy. That was over 3m on GS at Chepstow, which would still make a stiff test, but he hardly disgraced himself, making the frame a 6.5L 3rd. In younger days, he was a 0.5L 2nd in a decent quality 3m Irish PtP in a time consistent with decent ground and, from a more qualitative perspective, he is closely related to staying chaser Far From Trouble and staying hurdlers Bannow Bay and Mighty Moss, all of whom preferred cut but handled quicker going – all 3 making the frame in staying events at the Cheltenham Festival on variants of decent ground. Based on his pedigree, it seems distinctly possible that what Mountainous needs is indeed a stamina test but by trip and/or testing ground (rather like the progeny of Roselier that have such a good record in quick ground GNs). Over a marathon trip, he could well be competitive on ground still with cut but better than Soft. Certainly his stats do not preclude this. Nonetheless, by Monday this could all be moot!
THE PACKAGE – 40/1 [5 places & NRNB – Paddy Power] Unseated at the 19th fence when in mid-division in the 2010 GN but the model ignores that because he was a 7y-o (they typically don’t handle the occasion) and, making headway from the rear, he had completed a circuit and negotiated the biggest fences that Aintree has to offer (they are a little kinder now). A marginal and not unreasonable re-assessment of his stats elevates him slightly above the posse on going that is Easy side of Good, as last year (though he is still place, not winning potential). His profile: • A consistent but injury-prone chaser. If you discount the 2 runs prior to both injury lay-offs (i.e. the runs in which he probably was injured), other than his UR in the GN he has finished in the frame in 7 of 8 chases at 3m+ (the exception being to miss out by only 0.5L when 5th of 19 in the 2010 Bet365 [aka “Whitbread”]) • Versatile as regards ground and relishing a trip, he’s won two Class 1 3.25m chases, one on Soft, and was a strong finishing 2nd (by a head) in the 2010 William Hill Trophy at The Festival, run at a fast clip on decent ground. • He was a creditable 14.5L 4th in the 2012 Hennessy won impressively by Bobs Worth in a rapid time for the GS going (he was seemingly beaten by turn of foot rather than stamina). He ran off a mark of OR147 that day and is off OR141 at Aintree (the same as when 2nd in the 2010 WHT chase). • He has raced only once since returning from a year’s injury-absence, that being an admirable staying-on 3rd (8.75L) with 11.02 in the 25f handicap chase at The Festival 2 weeks ago, run in a time slightly faster than standard. He may, of course, be vulnerable to the notorious “bounce” (more like “flop”) on the 2nd run after return from injury. We’ll know on 5th April. • In 9 hurdles and 16 chases, his UR in the 2010 GN is the only occasion on which he has tipped up and he had Graham Lee on board for the first time that day – Tom Scudamore presumably will ride at Aintree (made the frame 3 from 3 with him to date). He’s won or run well over the stiff fences of Cheltenham and Newbury. • An 11y-o with 10.04 to carry and his last run (albeit his only run of the season) 25 days prior – in the sweet spot.
Others: SWING BILL – 66/1 [5 places & NRNB with Paddy] or 50/1 [6 places & NRFreeBet] with Vic (he’s clearly still licking his wounds). Believe it or not, the old fella would be 4th best on stats if Mountainous were scratched and it came up proper Good-to-Soft (or a mix of GS and Soft) but he would one of the posse if the going were better than GS. Loves it around the GN course and carries 7lbs less than when 6th last time. You can ignore his last run (45L 11th in the Kim Muir) as he got left 20+L behind at the start – allowing for that, it was actually a much better run that he had last year in the same race. Prior to that, he had another creditable spin around the GN course in the Becher Chase (15.5L 5th).
Otherwise, the horses with the biggest "margin of error" (by virtue of unique characteristics of their profiles) as regards the model's rating of their chances are TIDAL BAY, GODSMEJUDGE and BURTON PORT. Since their stat-scores have a high degree of elasticity, depending upon the model's treatment of those unique elements, they represent the biggest dangers to the model's selections. I'll happily stick with the its current evaluation however.
So, the final ratings by the model in respect of the most likely going alternatives are:
On Good-to-Soft (and mix of GS and Soft):
1. T43 2. Monbeg Dude 3. Chance Du Roy 4. Mountainous (if he runs) 5. Swing Bill 6. The Package / Shakalakaboomboom / Godsmejudge / Tidal Bay
On Easy side of Good (i.e. any mix of Good and GS):
1. T43 2. Monbeg Dude 3. Chance Du Roy 4. Mountainous (if he runs) / The Package 5. Shakalakaboomboom / Long Run / Tidal Bay / Swing Bill / Tranquil Sea
First turftrax going report for the 2014 Aintree GN meeting. GN course currently predominantly Good-to-Soft with Good places (softer at the Canal Turn)
Whatever rumour there was about Rocky Creek the other day seems to have evaporated. Back trading at normal-ish levels on Betfair. BUT Sunnyhillboy now going for a walk - BIG TIME EDIT - Racing Post reports he'll miss the race. So, JP has Double Seven (AP has ridden him once, in a hurdle more than 2 years ago, and in none of his last 19 outings), Colbert Station (UR,0,F - last 3 runs and unseated AP last GN) and Lost Glory, 66/1 as likely to make the cut. Could it be that JP permits AP to pilot another?...........Burton Port?
Roi Du Mee and Bog Warrior declared for a Grade 2 chase at Navan tomorrow and, presumably, will not go to Aintree. With Mossey Joe an unlikely runner and Sunnyhillboy scratched, that would guarantee Shakalakaboomboom a run.
I advise anyone wanting to back Monbeg Dude to get on early. The Royal connection will guarantee a flood of late money which will bring the price down. He could even start favourite.
I advise anyone wanting to back Monbeg Dude to get on early. The Royal connection will guarantee a flood of late money which will bring the price down. He could even start favourite.
Wise words len. AP says in his Telegraph column that he will choose between Colbert Station and Double Seven now that SHB is out.
He will probably pick Colbert Station. He knows 8 year olds don't have a good record.
You could well be right len, but AP's been ejected (crashing fall last time) 3 of his last 4 rides on CS. Despite saying he'll choose one of JP's (he's got to unless JP releases him), I wouldn't totally rule out McManus allowing him to ride another of Jonjo's - Twirling Magnet or Burton Port - if Jonjo really fancied one of them. He gave BP one hell of a ride at Newbury last time to try, with some success, to re-invigorate the old boy. We'll know soon enough.
In this calm before the storm, I was surfing the output of a few other GN trend-analysts - always interesting to compare notes. My system doesn't include a "Trainer Factor" and I don't think it ever will. Nonetheless, courtesy of the geezer behind the stats' analysis on geegeez.co.uk, I was somewhat shocked/amused to see the performances in the GN of the last 16 horses sent to Aintree by Nicky Henderson:
In this calm before the storm, I was surfing the output of a few other GN trend-analysts - always interesting to compare notes. My system doesn't include a "Trainer Factor" and I don't think it ever will. Nonetheless, courtesy of the geezer behind the stats' analysis on geegeez.co.uk, I was somewhat shocked/amused to see the performances in the GN of the last 16 horses sent to Aintree by Nicky Henderson:
UFFFUFFUPPF5UF9U
At least Shakalakaboomboom was that "9" )
I am therefore somewhat comforted that my horse has left the Master Of Seven Barrow's yard to join a proper GN Trainer ;-)
Roi Du Mee, Katenko, Bog Warrior, Mossey Joe, Godsmejudge, Sunnyhillboy, Same Difference and Goulanes withdrawn. That leaves One In A Milan as #40 (all on 10.02+ guaranteed a run) and Goonyella and Swing Bill next on the list. If none above them come out at Declarations on Thursday, they will be the 2 Reserves that would need withdrawals by 9am Friday to get a run. Very interesting that the soft ground seeking Mountainous and Hawkes Point remain in. Currently going on the GN course is said to be GS (Good places), forecast is somewhat unsettled for rest of the week with showers from time to time, including Saturday morning.
Last 4 GNs have seen #42~#45 at this stage get in the 40 at Declarations and there are a few in the current top 40 with question-marks over their participation. Bill could get a spin yet.
I think, based on current Official Ratings to prioritise among those allotted the same weight, those next on the list in order are:
41. Goonyella [10.01] 42. Swing Bill [10.01] 43. Soll [10.00] 44. Night In Milan [9.13] 45. Minella For Value [9.13] 46. Saint Are [9.13] 47. Tranquil Sea [9.12] 48. Out Now [9.12]
From their respective trainers' comments, there have to be doubts over one or both of Mountainous (Fairyhouse still very much on the radar screen) and Hawkes Point running if it isn't at least proper GS (preferably softer) and over Balthazar King if it is (though Hobbs has talked about leaving him in at Decs and deciding on Saturday morning - too late for Reserves). Also, judging by Betfair, among the current 40 one or more of Our Father, Twirling Magnet, Vesper Bell and Lost Glory may be uncertain participants....?
Evan Williams is convinced that Paul Moloney will choose to ride One In A Milan, since he "knows Mountainous [whom he rode to Welsh National victory] won't beat our horse again". Hmm, that may be Evan WIlliams' and even Paul Moloney's view but, when it comes to the GN, my model thinks otherwise and rates One In A Milan too inexperienced (6 chases) to handle the occasion and pace (refusing at the 1st and 2nd fences in his 2 PtPs and falling over hurdles in his only start over obstacles on ground quicker than Soft in October doesn't bode well)................famous last words no doubt however!
BetVic is now NRNB like most others but, of course, is paying 6 e/w places. Odds with BetVic (and best 5 place odds NRNB, if better) that may (or may not) be of interest:
T43: 8 (9) Monbeg Dude: 14 (16) Chance Du Roy: 33 Mountainous: 40 The Package: 33 Shakalakaboomboom: 33 Swing Bill: 66 - yes Victor's gone from 50 to 66 for the old fella with the 6th place
To re-cap, the model's ratings:
On Good-to-Soft (and mix of GS and Soft):
1. T43 (winning profile) 2. Monbeg Dude (winning profile) 3. Chance Du Roy (winning profile) 4. Mountainous (if he runs) (winning profile) 5. Swing Bill 6. The Package / Shakalakaboomboom / Tidal Bay
On Easy side of Good (i.e. any mix of Good and GS) - currently this:
1. T43 (winning profile) 2. Monbeg Dude (winning profile) 3. Chance Du Roy (winning profile) 4. Mountainous (if he runs) / The Package 5. Shakalakaboomboom / Long Run / Tidal Bay / Swing Bill / Tranquil Sea (may not make the cut)
Soll must have a chance of a minor placing if he gets in.
50/1 Vic 6 places. Ran nicely last time.
Got to have a credible long shot going for you e/w. Consider:
- 3 of the first 6 home last year were 66/1 or longer, including the winner - 4 of last 7 GN winners had SPs of 33~100/1 - in 8 of the last 12 GNs, at least one of the first 6 placed horses had an SP of 66/1 or longer - 32% of horses placed 1~6 in those last 12 GNs had SPs of at least 33/1
Look I know this may be construed as heart ruling head but, as credible outsiders to make the frame go, there are a lot worse 66/1 shots with 6-place Vic than Swing Bill, carrying 7lbs less than when 6th last year. On paper that puts him 22L behind fav T43 but the distance separating 1st & 6th can easily exceed that. He's finished in the paying places in 4 of his 6 runs over the GN course (each of last 3) yet is completely overlooked presumably because he is 13. But fellow Aintree-lover Hello Bud was 7th (just 4L outside the money) in the 2012 GN as a 14 year old. Had 2 runs this season, both respectable, allowing for the farcical start of the Kim Muir, 23 days ago. There will be a draw tomorrow to decide whether Bill or Goonyella will be #41 in the list (both allotted 10.01 and have the same OR). Will probably make the cut anyway but NRNB covers the risk of not doing so. Model not quite as positive on him this year as last but still gives him a decent e/w squeak on the likely ground - more so if proper Good-to-Soft.
MOUNTAINOUS seems more and more likely to line up. Trainer Richard Lee now says intention is to run "as long as it is just on the soft side of good" (preferably softer) - very probable to get acceptable ground given the showery forecast and Aintree's stated safety policy. His stats:
• Winner of this season’s Welsh National on Heavy and is seeking to emulate Corbiere (1982-83) and Earth Summit (1997-98) by winning both Welsh & Aintree Nationals in the same season. He carries 7lbs more on Saturday than he did at Chepstow - Corbiere carried 8lbs more.
Aside from same-season double National winners, Rhyme n Reason (1989), Party Politics (1992) and Bindaree (2002) all won the GN after making the frame at Chepstow the previous December and there have been plenty of GN placed horses (The Thinker 1989, Fiddlers Pike 1994, Party Politics 1995, Samlee 1998, Whats Up Boys 2002, Gunner Welburn 2003, Cappa Bleu 2012 and Teaforthree 2013) that had been placed in the same season Welsh National.
Placed horses in this season’s WN also line up on Saturday: Tidal Bay (weight and age against on stats but he is a big “outlier” threat), Hawkes Point and One In A Milan (both relatively inexperienced) and Vintage Star was 6th at Chepstow (fell last time out) and all could run well but the model considers that they don’t quite have the profile to match Mountainous on Saturday.
• Only failed to make the frame twice in 9 chases (also made frame in 4 of 6 hurdles) and completed in all 15 jumps races under rules.
• 9 years old, carrying 10.07 & 4 runs in the season are perfect. The only negative is that he hasn't run for 63 days (Neptune Collonges 56 days is longest of any GN winner since 1988) but a number of horses have made the frame with a longer gap.
• Never run in a chase on better than GS but placed on Good over hurdles and is closely related to Far From Trouble, close 3rd in the 4m1f amateurs chase at the 2006 Cheltenham Festival on quick ground.
Jamie Moore will ride (ridden him before) with Moloney booked elsewhere. Moore's 6-run GN record not great but never piloted one with Mountainous' credentials.
As noted above, Mountainous is the 4th best rated runner, according to the model, and has a winning profile on GS and softer and strong place potential on Gd/GS (jointly 4th rated with The Package, though the latter is there by virtue of getting the benefit of the doubt on a borderline stat).
Available still at 40/1 for 6 places e/w with Vic (NRNB)
Comments
http://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national/winner
Also, I can't find anywhere your disclaimer because, as sure are eggs are eggs, someone on here is going to sue you for misadvice.
And frankly the last thing I need is a spate of calls along the lines of "Have you ever been given any tips from PeanutsMolloy that failed to win you £10 million pounds. If so please press 5 for assistance...................."
No, you are quite right.
PLEASE NOTE ALL -
1. ALL GRAND NATIONAL TIPS GIVEN BY ONE PEANUTSMOLLOY MAY HAVE BEEN DERIVED NOT BY THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RACING CAREERS OF RUNNERS BUT FROM THE LOCATION OF DEPOSITS OF EMISSIONS FROM HIS DOG UPON A GRAND NATIONAL SWEEPSTAKE KIT LAID OUT ON THE FLOOR OF HIS SHED. HOWEVER DERIVED, THEY MAY PROVE TO BE UTTER BOLLOCKS.
2. AS HE TOO WILL HAVE DONE HIS DOUGH AND WILL HAVE INCURRED THE DREAD WRATH OF ONE MRS P MOLLOY, NO LIABILITY CAN BE ACCEPTED IN THE EVENT THAT HIS AFOREMENTIONED STATISTICAL "MODEL" BURSTS INTO FLAMES & CAREERS OFF THE ROAD INTO A DITCH.
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY - DON'T BACK A 7 YEAR-OLD IN THE GRAND NATIONAL & ALWAYS TAKE THE 5TH EACH-WAY PLACE.
For those, like me, with SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM on their betting slip e/w at 40~50/1 [5 places] there’s no cause to regret the selection. His final 2 preps were disappointing and failed to elevate his stats to a Winner’s profile but, by virtue of a good 3m+ strike rate, never having tipped up, 2 creditable runs over the GN fences and a featherweight 10.03 to carry this time, he most certainly retains decent place potential.
Importantly, there are precedents for horses with a proven liking for Aintree but similar or even bigger question-marks over their form and/or fitness that made the frame in the GN:
• In 1997 Buckboard Bounce [40/1] was 4th (29L behind winner Lord Gyllene but less than 4L behind 2nd) and former Gold Cup winner Master Oats carried top-weight [at 25/1] to be 2L further back in 5th. Both had decent form over the GN fences but had just returned from a year+ out with injury and had shown absolutely nothing in their preps.
• Last year, Oscar Time (2011 GN runner-up but hadn’t made the frame since, including in 4 runs in the 12/13 season since returning from a year out with injury and culminating in a forlorn 101L last of 17 in his final prep) ran a blinder back at Aintree to come home 4th (off the same mark and with 2lbs more weight than when 2nd to Ballabriggs). Shaka will run with 9lbs less than when, as an 8y-o, he was a very creditable (prominent for a long way) 28L 9th in the 2012 GN.
Having said all of that, I have to confess that he hardly looks attractively priced at 33/1 on his last 2 runs and, while I’m happy to stay with him, it's worth enquiring whether there is another interesting candidate for 4th.
Shaka is one of a posse of 6-7 runners all with similar stat-scores, consistent with making the frame but not winning the GN. Since the final preps were run, I’ve tried to identify any runner from the posse or thereabouts that has a stat that is so borderline that a minor change of the algorithm (back-tested to ensure potential validity) would push it slightly higher in the ratings on ground that is any variant of going better than Soft. The resulting candidates:
MOUNTAINOUS – 40/1 [5 places & NRNB] – BUT MAY NOT RUN
He is the strongest candidate on existing stats for 4th selection BUT his trainer has stated that he is more likely to go for the Irish rather than Aintree National and would not run anywhere if it wasn’t Soft or softer. He’s been kept in at two Forfeit Stages, costing £1,000 each time, but presumably is likely to be scratched at Monday’s Confirmation Stage. If not, it may be that his connections are having a change of heart and, if so, he should be backed NRNB.
While his stat-profile is stronger the softer the ground, it is clear 4th best on GS (winning profile in fact) and joint 4th best on last year’s going of a mix of Good/GS. Why? Well, only 1 of his 9 chases has been run on ground that wasn’t officially Soft or Heavy. That was over 3m on GS at Chepstow, which would still make a stiff test, but he hardly disgraced himself, making the frame a 6.5L 3rd. In younger days, he was a 0.5L 2nd in a decent quality 3m Irish PtP in a time consistent with decent ground and, from a more qualitative perspective, he is closely related to staying chaser Far From Trouble and staying hurdlers Bannow Bay and Mighty Moss, all of whom preferred cut but handled quicker going – all 3 making the frame in staying events at the Cheltenham Festival on variants of decent ground.
Based on his pedigree, it seems distinctly possible that what Mountainous needs is indeed a stamina test but by trip and/or testing ground (rather like the progeny of Roselier that have such a good record in quick ground GNs). Over a marathon trip, he could well be competitive on ground still with cut but better than Soft. Certainly his stats do not preclude this.
Nonetheless, by Monday this could all be moot!
THE PACKAGE – 40/1 [5 places & NRNB – Paddy Power]
Unseated at the 19th fence when in mid-division in the 2010 GN but the model ignores that because he was a 7y-o (they typically don’t handle the occasion) and, making headway from the rear, he had completed a circuit and negotiated the biggest fences that Aintree has to offer (they are a little kinder now).
A marginal and not unreasonable re-assessment of his stats elevates him slightly above the posse on going that is Easy side of Good, as last year (though he is still place, not winning potential). His profile:
• A consistent but injury-prone chaser. If you discount the 2 runs prior to both injury lay-offs (i.e. the runs in which he probably was injured), other than his UR in the GN he has finished in the frame in 7 of 8 chases at 3m+ (the exception being to miss out by only 0.5L when 5th of 19 in the 2010 Bet365 [aka “Whitbread”])
• Versatile as regards ground and relishing a trip, he’s won two Class 1 3.25m chases, one on Soft, and was a strong finishing 2nd (by a head) in the 2010 William Hill Trophy at The Festival, run at a fast clip on decent ground.
• He was a creditable 14.5L 4th in the 2012 Hennessy won impressively by Bobs Worth in a rapid time for the GS going (he was seemingly beaten by turn of foot rather than stamina). He ran off a mark of OR147 that day and is off OR141 at Aintree (the same as when 2nd in the 2010 WHT chase).
• He has raced only once since returning from a year’s injury-absence, that being an admirable staying-on 3rd (8.75L) with 11.02 in the 25f handicap chase at The Festival 2 weeks ago, run in a time slightly faster than standard. He may, of course, be vulnerable to the notorious “bounce” (more like “flop”) on the 2nd run after return from injury. We’ll know on 5th April.
• In 9 hurdles and 16 chases, his UR in the 2010 GN is the only occasion on which he has tipped up and he had Graham Lee on board for the first time that day – Tom Scudamore presumably will ride at Aintree (made the frame 3 from 3 with him to date). He’s won or run well over the stiff fences of Cheltenham and Newbury.
• An 11y-o with 10.04 to carry and his last run (albeit his only run of the season) 25 days prior – in the sweet spot.
Others:
SWING BILL – 66/1 [5 places & NRNB with Paddy] or 50/1 [6 places & NRFreeBet] with Vic (he’s clearly still licking his wounds). Believe it or not, the old fella would be 4th best on stats if Mountainous were scratched and it came up proper Good-to-Soft (or a mix of GS and Soft) but he would one of the posse if the going were better than GS. Loves it around the GN course and carries 7lbs less than when 6th last time. You can ignore his last run (45L 11th in the Kim Muir) as he got left 20+L behind at the start – allowing for that, it was actually a much better run that he had last year in the same race. Prior to that, he had another creditable spin around the GN course in the Becher Chase (15.5L 5th).
Otherwise, the horses with the biggest "margin of error" (by virtue of unique characteristics of their profiles) as regards the model's rating of their chances are TIDAL BAY, GODSMEJUDGE and BURTON PORT. Since their stat-scores have a high degree of elasticity, depending upon the model's treatment of those unique elements, they represent the biggest dangers to the model's selections. I'll happily stick with the its current evaluation however.
So, the final ratings by the model in respect of the most likely going alternatives are:
On Good-to-Soft (and mix of GS and Soft):
1. T43
2. Monbeg Dude
3. Chance Du Roy
4. Mountainous (if he runs)
5. Swing Bill
6. The Package / Shakalakaboomboom / Godsmejudge / Tidal Bay
On Easy side of Good (i.e. any mix of Good and GS):
1. T43
2. Monbeg Dude
3. Chance Du Roy
4. Mountainous (if he runs) / The Package
5. Shakalakaboomboom / Long Run / Tidal Bay / Swing Bill / Tranquil Sea
Still 40/1 [5 places NRNB] with Betfair Sportsbook.
First turftrax going report for the 2014 Aintree GN meeting.
GN course currently predominantly Good-to-Soft with Good places (softer at the Canal Turn)
BUT Sunnyhillboy now going for a walk - BIG TIME
EDIT - Racing Post reports he'll miss the race.
So, JP has Double Seven (AP has ridden him once, in a hurdle more than 2 years ago, and in none of his last 19 outings), Colbert Station (UR,0,F - last 3 runs and unseated AP last GN) and Lost Glory, 66/1 as likely to make the cut.
Could it be that JP permits AP to pilot another?...........Burton Port?
With Mossey Joe an unlikely runner and Sunnyhillboy scratched, that would guarantee Shakalakaboomboom a run.
AP says in his Telegraph column that he will choose between Colbert Station and Double Seven now that SHB is out.
My system doesn't include a "Trainer Factor" and I don't think it ever will. Nonetheless, courtesy of the geezer behind the stats' analysis on geegeez.co.uk, I was somewhat shocked/amused to see the performances in the GN of the last 16 horses sent to Aintree by Nicky Henderson:
UFFFUFFUPPF5UF9U
At least Shakalakaboomboom was that "9"
That leaves One In A Milan as #40 (all on 10.02+ guaranteed a run) and Goonyella and Swing Bill next on the list. If none above them come out at Declarations on Thursday, they will be the 2 Reserves that would need withdrawals by 9am Friday to get a run.
Very interesting that the soft ground seeking Mountainous and Hawkes Point remain in.
Currently going on the GN course is said to be GS (Good places), forecast is somewhat unsettled for rest of the week with showers from time to time, including Saturday morning.
Last 4 GNs have seen #42~#45 at this stage get in the 40 at Declarations and there are a few in the current top 40 with question-marks over their participation. Bill could get a spin yet.
41. Goonyella [10.01]
42. Swing Bill [10.01]
43. Soll [10.00]
44. Night In Milan [9.13]
45. Minella For Value [9.13]
46. Saint Are [9.13]
47. Tranquil Sea [9.12]
48. Out Now [9.12]
From their respective trainers' comments, there have to be doubts over one or both of Mountainous (Fairyhouse still very much on the radar screen) and Hawkes Point running if it isn't at least proper GS (preferably softer) and over Balthazar King if it is (though Hobbs has talked about leaving him in at Decs and deciding on Saturday morning - too late for Reserves).
Also, judging by Betfair, among the current 40 one or more of Our Father, Twirling Magnet, Vesper Bell and Lost Glory may be uncertain participants....?
Evan Williams is convinced that Paul Moloney will choose to ride One In A Milan, since he "knows Mountainous [whom he rode to Welsh National victory] won't beat our horse again". Hmm, that may be Evan WIlliams' and even Paul Moloney's view but, when it comes to the GN, my model thinks otherwise and rates One In A Milan too inexperienced (6 chases) to handle the occasion and pace (refusing at the 1st and 2nd fences in his 2 PtPs and falling over hurdles in his only start over obstacles on ground quicker than Soft in October doesn't bode well)................famous last words no doubt however!
Odds with BetVic (and best 5 place odds NRNB, if better) that may (or may not) be of interest:
T43: 8 (9)
Monbeg Dude: 14 (16)
Chance Du Roy: 33
Mountainous: 40
The Package: 33
Shakalakaboomboom: 33
Swing Bill: 66 - yes Victor's gone from 50 to 66 for the old fella with the 6th place
To re-cap, the model's ratings:
On Good-to-Soft (and mix of GS and Soft):
1. T43 (winning profile)
2. Monbeg Dude (winning profile)
3. Chance Du Roy (winning profile)
4. Mountainous (if he runs) (winning profile)
5. Swing Bill
6. The Package / Shakalakaboomboom / Tidal Bay
On Easy side of Good (i.e. any mix of Good and GS) - currently this:
1. T43 (winning profile)
2. Monbeg Dude (winning profile)
3. Chance Du Roy (winning profile)
4. Mountainous (if he runs) / The Package
5. Shakalakaboomboom / Long Run / Tidal Bay / Swing Bill / Tranquil Sea (may not make the cut)
Got to have a credible long shot going for you e/w. Consider:
- 3 of the first 6 home last year were 66/1 or longer, including the winner
- 4 of last 7 GN winners had SPs of 33~100/1
- in 8 of the last 12 GNs, at least one of the first 6 placed horses had an SP of 66/1 or longer
- 32% of horses placed 1~6 in those last 12 GNs had SPs of at least 33/1
NO.....real men bet Win only ;o)
He's finished in the paying places in 4 of his 6 runs over the GN course (each of last 3) yet is completely overlooked presumably because he is 13. But fellow Aintree-lover Hello Bud was 7th (just 4L outside the money) in the 2012 GN as a 14 year old.
Had 2 runs this season, both respectable, allowing for the farcical start of the Kim Muir, 23 days ago.
There will be a draw tomorrow to decide whether Bill or Goonyella will be #41 in the list (both allotted 10.01 and have the same OR). Will probably make the cut anyway but NRNB covers the risk of not doing so.
Model not quite as positive on him this year as last but still gives him a decent e/w squeak on the likely ground - more so if proper Good-to-Soft.
• Winner of this season’s Welsh National on Heavy and is seeking to emulate Corbiere (1982-83) and Earth Summit (1997-98) by winning both Welsh & Aintree Nationals in the same season. He carries 7lbs more on Saturday than he did at Chepstow - Corbiere carried 8lbs more.
Aside from same-season double National winners, Rhyme n Reason (1989), Party Politics (1992) and Bindaree (2002) all won the GN after making the frame at Chepstow the previous December and there have been plenty of GN placed horses (The Thinker 1989, Fiddlers Pike 1994, Party Politics 1995, Samlee 1998, Whats Up Boys 2002, Gunner Welburn 2003, Cappa Bleu 2012 and Teaforthree 2013) that had been placed in the same season Welsh National.
Placed horses in this season’s WN also line up on Saturday: Tidal Bay (weight and age against on stats but he is a big “outlier” threat), Hawkes Point and One In A Milan (both relatively inexperienced) and Vintage Star was 6th at Chepstow (fell last time out) and all could run well but the model considers that they don’t quite have the profile to match Mountainous on Saturday.
• Only failed to make the frame twice in 9 chases (also made frame in 4 of 6 hurdles) and completed in all 15 jumps races under rules.
• 9 years old, carrying 10.07 & 4 runs in the season are perfect. The only negative is that he hasn't run for 63 days (Neptune Collonges 56 days is longest of any GN winner since 1988) but a number of horses have made the frame with a longer gap.
• Never run in a chase on better than GS but placed on Good over hurdles and is closely related to Far From Trouble, close 3rd in the 4m1f amateurs chase at the 2006 Cheltenham Festival on quick ground.
Jamie Moore will ride (ridden him before) with Moloney booked elsewhere. Moore's 6-run GN record not great but never piloted one with Mountainous' credentials.
As noted above, Mountainous is the 4th best rated runner, according to the model, and has a winning profile on GS and softer and strong place potential on Gd/GS (jointly 4th rated with The Package, though the latter is there by virtue of getting the benefit of the doubt on a borderline stat).
Available still at 40/1 for 6 places e/w with Vic (NRNB)
On my betting slip as the “sexy 4th”.