That's a very interesting race the Grimthorpe, with Godsmejudge also running, as well as several other GN entries Burton Port & Pete The Feat (not without a chance if a soft ground GN) go in the vets chase at Newbury at 2.40. Mr Moonshine runs at Kelso (4.15) in the race that Ballabriggs used as a perennial GN prep. A big day for a number of them.
Burton Port in first time CPs. Might be the making of the horse - or a sign of desperation!
Let it go AA.
Never. Not until I hit the bottom of Beachy Head!
Trust me - Jonjo knows what he's doing. Doesn't he?
I'm just scrambling back up Beachy Head ;-)
........to lay him off on Betfair? ;o)
Not me PM - that would spoil the dream. And if you ain't got a dream, what have you got? An "all green" book. And where's the fun in that, eh?
The fallers in the 3:15 at Newbury was comical why the hell did Roman Flight run across the fence to join in the action, gutted though coz I had Tiqris which was brought down in it
Unsurprisingly, Alan King reports plans on hold for Godsmejudge. Presumably they've done blood tests on him because they seem to suspect he's got a stress-issue somewhere.
After that run i've put a line through Dude for the national; style of running and jumping not suited imo.
Can't argue with that assessment oldbloke. He's one hairy conveyance for both jockey and punters’ cash. One of the obvious "blind spots" for a stat-model is a horse’s style of jumping. It may have the greatest GN stats and never have tipped up but also may just have a way of getting over a fence that, when confronted with the GN course for the first time, is their undoing. Synchronised had amazing GN stats, even with top-weight, and had never fallen over fences but very sadly couldn't handle the occasion or the GN fences. Jumping could easily be the Dude's undoing at Aintree (though he has only UR'd once in his 11-chase career, with an amateur on board) but I have to stick with the selections of my stat-model. On that basis, his run in the Grimthorpe at Donny on Saturday ticks the prep box and confirms MONBEG DUDE as a win candidate on all going (2nd best stats to T43 on GS or better and, assuming no rise in the weights, joint top selection with T43 on Soft or Heavy). There was a mixed reaction to his run (26L 5th) - some bookies pushing him out to 25 but some now shortening him back to 16s. For a horse having his first run for 78 days (having recently had a minor bug) on ground that was quick enough to make even 3.25m a tad sharp for him, despite some ring-rust, it was pleasing the way he kept on from out the back and his trainer justifiably declared himself delighted.
Another blind spot for a stat-based model is physical wellbeing. If it weren't for the fact that GODSMEJUDGE is reported to have a problem (undiagnosed as yet) and the King yard was under a cloud in December, it might be concluded from his last 2 runs that he is not so suited by quick ground as his trainer had supposed. They are the only 2 races in his 16 race career run at a proper quick-ground pace and he has PU'd on both occasions. He has some great stats for the GN but, if he is fit to line up on 5 April (that would seem to be a big "if" at the moment), his bare stat-profile now suggests that he would need it Good-to-Soft (no better, no worse) in order to have a chance of making the frame and victory will have to wait for another year.
The Grimthorpe was won by another GN entry, 8y-o NIGHT IN MILAN. At #71 (at best) in the weights it is touch-and-go whether he makes the cut. If he does, he could run very respectably on GS or better but is unlikely to figure in the shake-up. STORM SURVIVOR (another 8y-o son of Milan) was 2nd but is #88 (at best) in the GN weights and will surely not make the cut. COURT BY SURPRISE, WAYWARD PRINCE, MON PARRAIN and MART LANE finished remote 6~9th and REAL MILAN PU’d. All remain with stats that give them varying degrees of little chance in the GN.
Meanwhile, AP did what only AP can do and persuaded a reluctant BURTON PORT (sporting first-time cheek pieces) to cut out the running in the 3m2f veterans’ chase at Newbury and, to his credit and to the relief of his die-hard followers (ahem), BP warmed to the task, setting a relentless gallop on stamina-sapping ground and comfortably seeing off the fancied Carruthers a long way out. He was overhauled by the winner (from the red-hot Venetia Williams’ yard) only at the last fence when tiring but the front 2 finished well clear of the rest. He was entitled to look legless at the line because the pace he’d cut out was appreciably quicker (15.33 secs per furlong vs 15.53 secs pf) than that of the 2m4f Grade 3 chase later on the card over 6 furlongs shorter. He showed a re-assuring glimpse of his old self but, though attractively weighted for Aintree, it’s too little too late from a stats-perspective to give him a chance of figuring in the shake up on 5 April. Half way round PETE THE FEAT got rid of Noel Fehily when going well enough. It was a pity but, while Charlie Longsdon may need to find another pilot for him if he takes him to Aintree (assuming that Fehily takes the ride on T43), this UR doesn’t entirely rubbish his GN stats, which give him minor place potential on GS or softer. He is 66/1 for the GN and, nearer the day when NRNB and 6 places are on offer, perhaps at an even longer price, he could well sneak onto the betting slip if it looks like he’ll get his ground.
Up at Kelso, MR MOONSHINE was a close 2nd in the Listed 3m chase, used as a GN prep last year by Aurora’s Encore and in recent times by Ballabriggs. A nice prep indeed and he is having a fine season, including a staying-on 3rd in the Becher Chase in December on Soft, but his stamina was found severely wanting in the last GN when carrying 7lbs less (10lb lower OR) than he is due to carry on 5 April. While he may run well for a long way, the stats suggest that it is unlikely that he’ll still be in contention when it matters. KRUZHLININ was 3rd but, as a 7y-o, has stats very much against him in the GN.
On Sunday, 4 Irish entries for the GN ran in a 2m5f Grade B at Leopardstown, 3 completing OK preps: DOUBLE SEVEN (17.5L 6th) has won 5 of 6 chases since June but has never won a chase going left-handed or at a major track; HOME FARM (20L 7th) is a 7y-o, enough said, and; LAST TIME D’ALBAIN (33L 10th) has reasonable GN stats, including a creditable 3rd in last year’s Topham over the GN fences, but they’re not strong enough to give him a meaningful chance. If you thought Monbeg Dude’s jumping is a cause for concern, pity the connections of COLBERT STATION and the poor sod asked to pilot him at Aintree (remarkably, he’s still as short as 20/1 with some for the GN). It must be a certainty now that AP will duck the ride, having been dumped in a crashing fall on Sunday and having been unseated by him at The Chair in the last GN (with another UR on him sandwiched in between). Suffice to say, he won’t be figuring among my model’s choices either.
BTW, the Irish chance that I mentioned was flashing brightly away on the radar screen - well, it's ceased to flash. MOSSEY JOE, who changed hands for £160k in January, could have transformed his stats into winning GN profile with a strong show in the Festival Foxhunters' Chase (for which he was ante post fav) but, though given an entry at Cheltenham, trainer Enda Bolger has said that he will bypass the race and head straight to Aintree to run in either the Foxhunters or the GN. No run since last June and no form at a major track more than offset other good stats on Spring ground and leave him well short of the required profile. Unless something comes from out of pack at Cheltenham, no joy for the Irish once again in the GN, according to the model.
In the RP today McCoy said that Doncaster is a quick track and wouldn't have played to Monbegs strengths.
He then said he is a GN horse as he needs the real test of stamina that four and a half miles round Aintree will bring.
Absolutely. That was a fast-run Grimthorpe. 3.25m too sharp for the Dude on quick ground.
Don't think they wanted the Dude to win it. Made one bad jump early which slowed him down, but Carberry wasn't fussed with pushing the pace in the second half of the race and the Dude improved mainly due to the rest slowing down. The mistake is a concern but I'm still convinced that if he's standing come the last he will win.
I said in my last blog that Teaforthree was unlikely to run again until Aintree. That is probably now not going to be the case. The initial view was not intended to put people away – it was genuinely what we thought. He was fitter than we anticipated at Ascot. But, on reflection, we think he needs another run. He attracted plenty of ante-post support following Ascot, so for those holding decent vouchers – and I am not one of them – you deserve an explanation. So here’s my attempt. As Rebecca has said on a few occasions, he is a big, stuffy type who needs racing to get into peak shape. The more we thought about it, the more we felt uncomfortable about Aintree being his third run of the season, on the back of a seven-week break. So, we decided he needed to have another run. He went up to a mark of 153 after Ascot, so all that he could run in were the Festival Handicap, the Gold Cup, a race at Kelso a week after Cheltenham or a spin over hurdles. I don’t like the latter as an option. Tom (our nickname for Teaforthree) is too good a jumper to have his head screwed around with by hurdles. Kelso is too close to Aintree. The Festival Handicap will have 24 runners, Tom would be giving weight away to the majority and the prospects of shenanigans will be intensified in that environment. Then there’s the Gold Cup. We asked AP McCoy what his view was. He thought it would put him spot on. We agree. So he’s likely to line up on the Friday, a decision that has been met with a fair few comments of us throwing away his Aintree chance and assertions that we do not know what we are doing. Such suggestions do irritate a little, but I have a thick skin (required for GBR/BHA work) – and they do make you attempt to justify the decision to those that you want to justify it to. I think he is an old fashioned chaser and I think he will enjoy the Gold Cup and come on for it. I have no visions of him winning, but I do think his jumping will help him through and may unsettle one or two others. Rough Quest came second in the Gold Cup before winning at Aintree. West Tip ran in it three times before placing in the National – and plenty of others have used the race in the middle distance past. I remember seeing Hedgehunter cruising at the top of the Cheltenham hill before finishing second to War of Attrition, then finishing second at Aintree carrying 11st 10lb. I have convinced myself it was weight that made him fail to win a second National, not his exerts in the Gold Cup. Tom will be carrying far less weight this year. One of the main reasons why there are not many examples to compare with is that if a horse is good enough to have a chance in a Gold Cup, then he is likely to be carrying a heavy burden at Aintree, so most don’t try. There’s also my aversion to the modern day tendency to wrap horses in cotton wool. I tend to favour the view that, if they’re fit and well, then run them. They are fragile enough and anything can happen, anywhere. And it is a sport. Small fields are a current issue in the industry. It is not an issue that is due to a single cause, but the fashion for avoiding taking up the opportunities offered, and of favouring racecourse gallops to having a go in front of the paying public, is not in the longer term interests of the sport. So we are going to have a go. And I think he will go well. And if he leaves Aintree behind at Cheltenham, then so be it. I’d rather reflect on leaving Aintree behind by taking action than him perform below par at Aintree because we have left him under-cooked. And we know that only racing brings him properly to the boil. The timing has also not been a barrier to others. Sunnyhillboy won the Festival Handicap before being touched off for the 2012 National. Bindaree ran in the same race before his win. Don’t Push It ran in the Pertemps Final; Silver Birch in the Cross Country; and Mon Mome and Lord Gyllene in the Midlands National after the Festival. There are some old fashioned chasers in that lot. Whatever the merits of the decision, it is based on what we think is right for Tom – and is certainly not a vanity trip. Now that’s off my chest, I can begin to focus on the race. This week will consist of Imodium tablets, the British Racing School, hopefully Pat Phelan’s and then back to Rebecca’s for a final spin on The Bear Trap ahead of the greatest week of the year. I’m looking forward to it all.
I was confident enough to have another £25 at 25/1 on Monbeg Dude. The race was just a warm up to keep him fresh. I'm surprised some bookies have him at a bigger price than Long Run who has no chance of winning.
I was confident enough to have another £25 at 25/1 on Monbeg Dude. The race was just a warm up to keep him fresh. I'm surprised some bookies have him at a bigger price than Long Run who has no chance of winning.
The split opinion among bookies is interesting. PP and Sportingbet have him jt 2nd fav at 16s but BetVic (and several others) quote 25s and have 6 runners shorter than him. Personally I would more confidently apply the categoric "No Chance" tag to On His Own (as short as 14/1), assuming he lines up at all. Undoubted stamina vs doubtful jumping for The Dude. Nobody knows for sure that he'll get round but if he does and without too many traffic problems, it will take some horse to stay ahead of him after The Elbow.....there might be one though ;o)
I think due to the poor weather recently and the number of days between cheltenham and aintree this year we will see more than normal national entries at cheltenham.
So the Festival kicks off today; some fantastic racing in prospect and the next 5 days, taking in the Midlands National on Saturday (for which PETE THE FEAT, JUNIOR, GOULANES and WYCK HILL have been given entries), will see the final preps for many GN hopefuls.
T43, TRIOLO D’ALENE and ON HIS OWN will run in the GC; T43 simply as an Aintree warm up, the other 2 aiming to be in the shake-up going up the Hill but, whatever their respective performance on Friday, it will not materially alter their GN chances, providing a safe and sound return of course. Those GN stat-profiles remain: T43: outstanding TdA: (if he runs at Aintree) minor place potential at best OHO: (if he runs at Aintree) fuggedaboudit
The main interest for my model centres on the two 3m+ handicaps for seasoned chasers.
On Thursday, TWIRLING MAGNET, SAME DIFFERENCE, SWING BILL and TRANQUIL SEA have their chance to do a Sunnyhillboy and surge into the reckoning (on their preferred ground) for the GN with a strong show in the 26f Kim Muir (though Tranquil Sea probably won’t make the cut at Aintree).
Today in the 3m1f handicap at 2.40, there are 9 GN entries running:
CANTLOW (16/1 today, 50/1 for the GN) is top weight today and could give himself place potential in the GN if he wins or goes close. However, top-weights haven’t won this for some years and AP evidently thinks Alfie Sherrin has the better chance.
VINTAGE STAR (20/1 today, 40/1 for the GN) – could elevate his GN stats to winning level if winning or closely placed today. In good form this season and has claims today but did jump poorly when PU-ing in the RSA last year. I’ve had a nibble e/w at 25/1 today, mainly because I like the horse but it will serve as a partial GN hedge if he does the business.
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (66/1 today, 33/1 for the GN) – given his existing stat-profile, doesn't need to make the frame today (and is unlikely to be ridden to do so) but does need an OK run to elevate his stats to a winning chance for the GN. Henderson thought his hurdle PU last time could have been the notorious "bounce" (more accurately described as "flop") on the 2nd run back from injury or just an example of his known dislike for hurdles. Presumably he hasn't found a physical problem or he wouldn't be running today. We shall see.
THE PACKAGE (25/1 today, 66/1 for the GN) - a strong show today could give himself place potential (of some sort) at Aintree.
ALFIE SHERRIN (fav today), WRONG TURN, STANDING OVATION, TOUR DES CHAMPS and SOLIX all run in the race and have GN entries but are most unlikely to make the cut at Aintree.
So, for a few hours at least, forget the nonsense in SE7 and on other threads and enjoy the finest jumps racing on offer.
A fast-run 25f chase at the Festival saw 8 of the 9 the GN entries do little or nothing to enhance their GN stats.
CANTLOW and VINTAGE STAR both Fell and are unlikely to be in the shake-up if they line up at Aintree. VS could go well for a fair way if he handles the fences but still won’t be troubling the judge, according to my model. That was his first Fall today in 18 runs over obstacles (15 completions), including a fine 13.5L 6th in the Welsh National, but Cheltenham’s fences have caused him problems in both runs at the Festival and it bodes ill for Aintree.
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM – aghhhhh. I suspect that, being short of miles this season, he was ultimately undone by the pace of the race today (run in a time 1.2secs faster than standard). Was prominent and travelled well enough for the first 2 miles but couldn’t stay with them from that point and laboured home a remote 76L 17th. Stats-wise that was nowhere near good enough to elevate him to a winning GN profile but there are enough existing positives in his stats (completed all 11 chases, making the frame 4 from 6 attempts at 3m+, 2 creditable runs over the GN fences and a significant drop in mark and weight from his 2012 GN run) that he retains place potential on GS or better. Some cut in the ground at Aintree, to slow the pace, would no doubt be much preferred. By way of a reminder, Swing Bill was 58L 16th in the Kim Muir (also folding a mile from home after going well) before making 6th in the last GN so modest performances at The Festival by horses with proficiency over the GN fences can be deceptive but one has to wonder whether Henderson will send him to Aintree on 5 April after his last two runs or concludes that he's run out of time to get him ready this year. If he does run, I’ll be content to have him on my betting slip, having backed him ante-post at a big enough price (50/1 e/w 5 places before the weights were unveiled) to make a place worthwhile (though I have a rather nasty feeling he’ll run a blinder and come home 6th). Indeed, as things currently stand, with other possibles one-by-one falling by the wayside, according to my model, Shaka has the 4th best stats on GS and better behind T43, Monbeg Dude and Chance Du Roy. That may change before the week is out of course.
TOUR DES CHAMPS (11.5L 5th), STANDING OVATION (12L 6th) and ALFIE SHERRIN (14L 8th) all ran fine preps but for a race other than the GN, being in all probability too low in the weights to make the cut, while WRONG TURN (PU) and SOLIX (remote 16th) made up the numbers.
The one that is likely to make the cut that did improve his GN stat-profile today was THE PACKAGE, a fine staying-on 8.75L 3rd in his first run for a year, though of course it sets him up for the infamous “bounce" (aka “flop”) in his next run. It is 4 years since his only previous attempt at the GN when, as a 7 year-old with 10.07, he UR’d at the 19th when in mid-div. He was hardly looking a natural over the GN fences that day but few 7 year-olds do and so is given the benefit of the doubt stats-wise, having completed more than a circuit. That UR is his only tip-up in 16 chases and 9 hurdles and he’s subsequently run creditably in the Bet365 (aka “Whitbread”) and made the frame in the 2012 Hennessy and the corresponding race today 2 years ago. Due to carry just 10.04 at Aintree he could run a big race but, despite his excellent run today, his GN stat-profile suggests minor place potential at best, rating slightly behind Shakalakaboomboom (difficult though that may be to believe after their respective performances this afternoon).
Tomorrow it’s the turn of the XC boys, including 6 GN entries. More anon.
6 GN entries line up in a very competitive XC today.
This is a credible prep for the GN, despite the questionable test of stamina that the XC represents. Silver Birch was a close 2nd in it before holding off McKelvey to win the 2007 GN (the last Irish-trained winner). However, Silver Birch had a lot more on his CV than XC form, being a former winner of the Welsh National (proven stamina) and Becher chase (GN fence form).
None of the 6 runners today have that quality of GN stat-profile but, for the record:
BALTAHAZAR KING (6/1 today, 33/1 for the GN) - winner of the Festival XC 2 years ago and a terrific record over the course but even if he were to win with top-weight today, he failed to get home at Aintree last year under 10.12. He'd run prominently but it wasn't a break-neck pace and he began to falter before 2nd Becher. With at least 10.13 to carry on 5 April, though he could show well for a long way, it's difficult to see him figuring at the business end.
BIG SHU (9/2 today, 40/1 for the GN) - Hunter chaser turned XC specialist from Ireland and winner of the 4m1f La Touche on desperate ground and of this race last year. Stamina in bucket loads but all of his 3m+ form is in XC races, all on soft ground (even his win at the last Festival was timed at 41secs slower than standard, a much slower pace than consistent with the GS official description). He's likely to find things happening way too quickly for him at Aintree, though if he goes well at a genuine decent ground pace today, he could elevate his stats to minor place potential. One to put the stop-watch on.
QUANTITATIVEEASING (14/1 today, 66/1 for the GN) - did not stay in the 2011 Irish National and hasn't made the frame in 6 attempts at 3m+. May get the trip today if the pace is slow enough but won't do so at Aintree.
SIRE COLLONGES - (12/1 today, 50/1 for the GN) - an 8 year-old shaping up as a good XC specialist but hasn't done enough over conventional fences to warrant interest in the GN, where it typically takes an 8 year-old with form in Class 1 chases to be in the shake-up.
QUISCOVER FONTAINE and ANY CURRENCY complete the half dozen but are too low in the GN weights to make the cut and, in any event, have poor prior GN runs to blot their profiles.
The story will be different tomorrow when the Kim Muir is run and several runners have the opportunity to boost their GN credentials meaningfully.
Kim Muir day at the Festival tomorrow and it’s had a reasonable link to the GN down the years.
A number of horses running well in the GN had used this as their final prep, though it’s been a while since a GN winner did so so (Mr Frisk was 7.5L 4th in the KM before winning the 1990 GN). However, with the mental scars still painful, Sunnyhillboy won the KM with 11.11 in 2012 before being nosed into GN 2nd by Neptune Collonges.
In between times, several have run respectably in it before being placed in the same-season GN (Encore Un Peu in 1996, Camelot Knight in 197, Liberthine in 2007 and Hello Bud in 2010) and Ballabriggs won it with 11.12 the season before his GN win in 2011.
Stats-wise, as a 0-145 handicap, the higher-weighted horses tend to occupy the sweet spot below 11.00 in the GN weights and a going well in the KM (as in any Festival chase) is likely to mean that the horse will be "well-in" by several lbs in the GN a few weeks later. Doing so with a big weight over a 3.25m trip ticks an important GN stamina stat-box.
There are 9 running in this year’s KM with GN entries and several (3 in particular) have a chance to enhance their GN stats meaningfully. Those 3 are, in card order:
TRANQUIL SEA (20/1 tomorrow and 66/1 for the GN) – only one 12 year-old has won the KM since inauguration in 1946 (in 1981) but, with two creditable 22f runs over the GN fences with 11.07+, a win or near-miss as top-weight in the KM would give this formerly top-class 2.5 miler strong place potential in the GN on GS or better (a winning chance if on the easy side of Good at Aintree). He would carry just 10.00 at Aintree but, unfortunately, being 74th in the GN weights is highly unlikely to make the cut.
TWIRLING MAGNET (20/1 tomorrow and 66/1 for the GN) – from the Jonjo O’Neil yard and having his first run for 131 days (having been on the go through last summer), a win or near-miss with 11.10 in the KM would give this 8 year-old, due to carry 10.05 at Aintree, a winning GN stat-profile on GS or better (the quicker the going at Aintree, the better his chance). He should make the cut being 50th (at best) in the GN weights.
SAME DIFFERENCE (14/1 tomorrow and 40/1 for the GN) – last year’s KM winner, no horse has won back-to-back KMs since 1985~6. He’s not having the best of seasons, though he ran respectably in the Hennessy, but his close 2nd with 11.07 in a fast-run Bet365 (aka “Whitbread”) over 3.75m last April means that an OK run in the KM with 11.09 would give him place potential in the GN (due to carry just 10.04) on GS or better and a win or near-miss would elevate his stats to winning potential (the better the ground at Aintree the better his chance). 54th (at best) in the GN weights, he should get a run at Aintree.
Dear old SWING BILL (13 years young and Aintree stalwart) theoretically could give himself a winning stat-profile on GS at Aintree if he wins or goes close in the KM with 11.06 but age is surely against him doing so (was 58L 16th in the KM last year before his sterling 6th at Aintree). Odds of 33/1 tomorrow are probably short enough, given that a canter round is likely all that’s planned, but if he were to go close there would be worse 100/1 shots for the GN. However, at 69th in the weights it’s touch-and-go whether he would get a chance on 5 April.
OUR FATHER, LOST GLORY, SAINT ARE, THERE’S NO PANIC and QUINZ complete the 9 but, for various reasons, are unlikely to be troubling the judge at Aintree, however they run tomorrow.
What an impressive run. He’s got some positives: • Won over 3.5m with 11.07 (Ulster National) • Age (11) and weight (10.06) good • Been busy (10 races) but successful (6 finishes <10L) this season - busy is good not bad for GN stats Negative: • Didn’t get too far (8th fence – after The Chair but before Bechers) when tipping up over the GN fences in the Becher Chase - not a “red-line” but hardly encouraging because it’s his only attempt at stiff-fences at a LH track. • Indeed, he’s never won at a LH chase track and only had one near-miss (Leopardstown) – not that he has to go right-handed but, unless all form is in Ireland, it’s a GN stat-negative not to have won or gone close over fences at the likes of Cheltenham, Newbury, Chepstow or Wetherby or have had a decent spin over the GN fences. All in all, PdR’s is an OK GN stat-profile and he could put in a bold show but my model rates him as minor place potential at best and he would need two or three rated higher to fail to achieve it. If you fancy him I’d think about waiting for the 6th place to be offered.
I would be surprised if your model franks swing bill this year peanuts...........think the rest had jumped the first before he got going. LOL
Got to feel sorry for the old boy, being the victim of a cocked-up start. It was like the bad old days with a couple of those starts today. Ran a very decent race considering but won't be on the ticket this time. None of those running today will but, despite jumping terribly, they way Same Difference battled on to claim 5th was noteworthy. He has minor place potential if he lines up at Aintree. One by one, those with the chance to upgrade their GN stats to winning calibre have fallen short. With the GC runners' GN stats unchangeable (to a meaningful degree) and just the Midlands National on Saturday and a 26f chase at Down Royal on Monday to come as the final significant preps for GN runners, on GS or better we currently have just 3 with winning stat-profiles. In order: T43 (fingers crossed he comes back sound tomorrow) MONBEG DUDE CHANCE DU ROY
Comments
Not me PM - that would spoil the dream. And if you ain't got a dream, what have you got? An "all green" book. And where's the fun in that, eh?
One of the obvious "blind spots" for a stat-model is a horse’s style of jumping. It may have the greatest GN stats and never have tipped up but also may just have a way of getting over a fence that, when confronted with the GN course for the first time, is their undoing. Synchronised had amazing GN stats, even with top-weight, and had never fallen over fences but very sadly couldn't handle the occasion or the GN fences.
Jumping could easily be the Dude's undoing at Aintree (though he has only UR'd once in his 11-chase career, with an amateur on board) but I have to stick with the selections of my stat-model.
On that basis, his run in the Grimthorpe at Donny on Saturday ticks the prep box and confirms MONBEG DUDE as a win candidate on all going (2nd best stats to T43 on GS or better and, assuming no rise in the weights, joint top selection with T43 on Soft or Heavy).
There was a mixed reaction to his run (26L 5th) - some bookies pushing him out to 25 but some now shortening him back to 16s. For a horse having his first run for 78 days (having recently had a minor bug) on ground that was quick enough to make even 3.25m a tad sharp for him, despite some ring-rust, it was pleasing the way he kept on from out the back and his trainer justifiably declared himself delighted.
Another blind spot for a stat-based model is physical wellbeing. If it weren't for the fact that GODSMEJUDGE is reported to have a problem (undiagnosed as yet) and the King yard was under a cloud in December, it might be concluded from his last 2 runs that he is not so suited by quick ground as his trainer had supposed. They are the only 2 races in his 16 race career run at a proper quick-ground pace and he has PU'd on both occasions. He has some great stats for the GN but, if he is fit to line up on 5 April (that would seem to be a big "if" at the moment), his bare stat-profile now suggests that he would need it Good-to-Soft (no better, no worse) in order to have a chance of making the frame and victory will have to wait for another year.
The Grimthorpe was won by another GN entry, 8y-o NIGHT IN MILAN. At #71 (at best) in the weights it is touch-and-go whether he makes the cut. If he does, he could run very respectably on GS or better but is unlikely to figure in the shake-up. STORM SURVIVOR (another 8y-o son of Milan) was 2nd but is #88 (at best) in the GN weights and will surely not make the cut. COURT BY SURPRISE, WAYWARD PRINCE, MON PARRAIN and MART LANE finished remote 6~9th and REAL MILAN PU’d. All remain with stats that give them varying degrees of little chance in the GN.
Meanwhile, AP did what only AP can do and persuaded a reluctant BURTON PORT (sporting first-time cheek pieces) to cut out the running in the 3m2f veterans’ chase at Newbury and, to his credit and to the relief of his die-hard followers (ahem), BP warmed to the task, setting a relentless gallop on stamina-sapping ground and comfortably seeing off the fancied Carruthers a long way out. He was overhauled by the winner (from the red-hot Venetia Williams’ yard) only at the last fence when tiring but the front 2 finished well clear of the rest. He was entitled to look legless at the line because the pace he’d cut out was appreciably quicker (15.33 secs per furlong vs 15.53 secs pf) than that of the 2m4f Grade 3 chase later on the card over 6 furlongs shorter. He showed a re-assuring glimpse of his old self but, though attractively weighted for Aintree, it’s too little too late from a stats-perspective to give him a chance of figuring in the shake up on 5 April.
Half way round PETE THE FEAT got rid of Noel Fehily when going well enough. It was a pity but, while Charlie Longsdon may need to find another pilot for him if he takes him to Aintree (assuming that Fehily takes the ride on T43), this UR doesn’t entirely rubbish his GN stats, which give him minor place potential on GS or softer. He is 66/1 for the GN and, nearer the day when NRNB and 6 places are on offer, perhaps at an even longer price, he could well sneak onto the betting slip if it looks like he’ll get his ground.
Up at Kelso, MR MOONSHINE was a close 2nd in the Listed 3m chase, used as a GN prep last year by Aurora’s Encore and in recent times by Ballabriggs. A nice prep indeed and he is having a fine season, including a staying-on 3rd in the Becher Chase in December on Soft, but his stamina was found severely wanting in the last GN when carrying 7lbs less (10lb lower OR) than he is due to carry on 5 April. While he may run well for a long way, the stats suggest that it is unlikely that he’ll still be in contention when it matters. KRUZHLININ was 3rd but, as a 7y-o, has stats very much against him in the GN.
On Sunday, 4 Irish entries for the GN ran in a 2m5f Grade B at Leopardstown, 3 completing OK preps: DOUBLE SEVEN (17.5L 6th) has won 5 of 6 chases since June but has never won a chase going left-handed or at a major track; HOME FARM (20L 7th) is a 7y-o, enough said, and; LAST TIME D’ALBAIN (33L 10th) has reasonable GN stats, including a creditable 3rd in last year’s Topham over the GN fences, but they’re not strong enough to give him a meaningful chance.
If you thought Monbeg Dude’s jumping is a cause for concern, pity the connections of COLBERT STATION and the poor sod asked to pilot him at Aintree (remarkably, he’s still as short as 20/1 with some for the GN). It must be a certainty now that AP will duck the ride, having been dumped in a crashing fall on Sunday and having been unseated by him at The Chair in the last GN (with another UR on him sandwiched in between). Suffice to say, he won’t be figuring among my model’s choices either.
On to Cheltenham!
MOSSEY JOE, who changed hands for £160k in January, could have transformed his stats into winning GN profile with a strong show in the Festival Foxhunters' Chase (for which he was ante post fav) but, though given an entry at Cheltenham, trainer Enda Bolger has said that he will bypass the race and head straight to Aintree to run in either the Foxhunters or the GN.
No run since last June and no form at a major track more than offset other good stats on Spring ground and leave him well short of the required profile.
Unless something comes from out of pack at Cheltenham, no joy for the Irish once again in the GN, according to the model.
He then said he is a GN horse as he needs the real test of stamina that four and a half miles round Aintree will bring.
Made one bad jump early which slowed him down, but Carberry wasn't fussed with pushing the pace in the second half of the race and the Dude improved mainly due to the rest slowing down.
The mistake is a concern but I'm still convinced that if he's standing come the last he will win.
I said in my last blog that Teaforthree was unlikely to run again until Aintree. That is probably now not going to be the case. The initial view was not intended to put people away – it was genuinely what we thought. He was fitter than we anticipated at Ascot. But, on reflection, we think he needs another run. He attracted plenty of ante-post support following Ascot, so for those holding decent vouchers – and I am not one of them – you deserve an explanation. So here’s my attempt. As Rebecca has said on a few occasions, he is a big, stuffy type who needs racing to get into peak shape. The more we thought about it, the more we felt uncomfortable about Aintree being his third run of the season, on the back of a seven-week break. So, we decided he needed to have another run. He went up to a mark of 153 after Ascot, so all that he could run in were the Festival Handicap, the Gold Cup, a race at Kelso a week after Cheltenham or a spin over hurdles. I don’t like the latter as an option. Tom (our nickname for Teaforthree) is too good a jumper to have his head screwed around with by hurdles. Kelso is too close to Aintree. The Festival Handicap will have 24 runners, Tom would be giving weight away to the majority and the prospects of shenanigans will be intensified in that environment. Then there’s the Gold Cup. We asked AP McCoy what his view was. He thought it would put him spot on. We agree. So he’s likely to line up on the Friday, a decision that has been met with a fair few comments of us throwing away his Aintree chance and assertions that we do not know what we are doing. Such suggestions do irritate a little, but I have a thick skin (required for GBR/BHA work) – and they do make you attempt to justify the decision to those that you want to justify it to. I think he is an old fashioned chaser and I think he will enjoy the Gold Cup and come on for it. I have no visions of him winning, but I do think his jumping will help him through and may unsettle one or two others. Rough Quest came second in the Gold Cup before winning at Aintree. West Tip ran in it three times before placing in the National – and plenty of others have used the race in the middle distance past. I remember seeing Hedgehunter cruising at the top of the Cheltenham hill before finishing second to War of Attrition, then finishing second at Aintree carrying 11st 10lb. I have convinced myself it was weight that made him fail to win a second National, not his exerts in the Gold Cup. Tom will be carrying far less weight this year. One of the main reasons why there are not many examples to compare with is that if a horse is good enough to have a chance in a Gold Cup, then he is likely to be carrying a heavy burden at Aintree, so most don’t try. There’s also my aversion to the modern day tendency to wrap horses in cotton wool. I tend to favour the view that, if they’re fit and well, then run them. They are fragile enough and anything can happen, anywhere. And it is a sport. Small fields are a current issue in the industry. It is not an issue that is due to a single cause, but the fashion for avoiding taking up the opportunities offered, and of favouring racecourse gallops to having a go in front of the paying public, is not in the longer term interests of the sport. So we are going to have a go. And I think he will go well. And if he leaves Aintree behind at Cheltenham, then so be it. I’d rather reflect on leaving Aintree behind by taking action than him perform below par at Aintree because we have left him under-cooked. And we know that only racing brings him properly to the boil. The timing has also not been a barrier to others. Sunnyhillboy won the Festival Handicap before being touched off for the 2012 National. Bindaree ran in the same race before his win. Don’t Push It ran in the Pertemps Final; Silver Birch in the Cross Country; and Mon Mome and Lord Gyllene in the Midlands National after the Festival. There are some old fashioned chasers in that lot. Whatever the merits of the decision, it is based on what we think is right for Tom – and is certainly not a vanity trip. Now that’s off my chest, I can begin to focus on the race. This week will consist of Imodium tablets, the British Racing School, hopefully Pat Phelan’s and then back to Rebecca’s for a final spin on The Bear Trap ahead of the greatest week of the year. I’m looking forward to it all.
PP and Sportingbet have him jt 2nd fav at 16s but BetVic (and several others) quote 25s and have 6 runners shorter than him. Personally I would more confidently apply the categoric "No Chance" tag to On His Own (as short as 14/1), assuming he lines up at all.
Undoubted stamina vs doubtful jumping for The Dude. Nobody knows for sure that he'll get round but if he does and without too many traffic problems, it will take some horse to stay ahead of him after The Elbow.....there might be one though ;o)
14:40 Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase
Will post a little later on today's runners with GN entries.........even if only as a distraction from the nonsense.
T43, TRIOLO D’ALENE and ON HIS OWN will run in the GC; T43 simply as an Aintree warm up, the other 2 aiming to be in the shake-up going up the Hill but, whatever their respective performance on Friday, it will not materially alter their GN chances, providing a safe and sound return of course. Those GN stat-profiles remain:
T43: outstanding
TdA: (if he runs at Aintree) minor place potential at best
OHO: (if he runs at Aintree) fuggedaboudit
The main interest for my model centres on the two 3m+ handicaps for seasoned chasers.
On Thursday, TWIRLING MAGNET, SAME DIFFERENCE, SWING BILL and TRANQUIL SEA have their chance to do a Sunnyhillboy and surge into the reckoning (on their preferred ground) for the GN with a strong show in the 26f Kim Muir (though Tranquil Sea probably won’t make the cut at Aintree).
Today in the 3m1f handicap at 2.40, there are 9 GN entries running:
CANTLOW (16/1 today, 50/1 for the GN) is top weight today and could give himself place potential in the GN if he wins or goes close. However, top-weights haven’t won this for some years and AP evidently thinks Alfie Sherrin has the better chance.
VINTAGE STAR (20/1 today, 40/1 for the GN) – could elevate his GN stats to winning level if winning or closely placed today. In good form this season and has claims today but did jump poorly when PU-ing in the RSA last year. I’ve had a nibble e/w at 25/1 today, mainly because I like the horse but it will serve as a partial GN hedge if he does the business.
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (66/1 today, 33/1 for the GN) – given his existing stat-profile, doesn't need to make the frame today (and is unlikely to be ridden to do so) but does need an OK run to elevate his stats to a winning chance for the GN. Henderson thought his hurdle PU last time could have been the notorious "bounce" (more accurately described as "flop") on the 2nd run back from injury or just an example of his known dislike for hurdles. Presumably he hasn't found a physical problem or he wouldn't be running today. We shall see.
THE PACKAGE (25/1 today, 66/1 for the GN) - a strong show today could give himself place potential (of some sort) at Aintree.
ALFIE SHERRIN (fav today), WRONG TURN, STANDING OVATION, TOUR DES CHAMPS and SOLIX all run in the race and have GN entries but are most unlikely to make the cut at Aintree.
So, for a few hours at least, forget the nonsense in SE7 and on other threads and enjoy the finest jumps racing on offer.
CANTLOW and VINTAGE STAR both Fell and are unlikely to be in the shake-up if they line up at Aintree. VS could go well for a fair way if he handles the fences but still won’t be troubling the judge, according to my model. That was his first Fall today in 18 runs over obstacles (15 completions), including a fine 13.5L 6th in the Welsh National, but Cheltenham’s fences have caused him problems in both runs at the Festival and it bodes ill for Aintree.
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM – aghhhhh. I suspect that, being short of miles this season, he was ultimately undone by the pace of the race today (run in a time 1.2secs faster than standard). Was prominent and travelled well enough for the first 2 miles but couldn’t stay with them from that point and laboured home a remote 76L 17th. Stats-wise that was nowhere near good enough to elevate him to a winning GN profile but there are enough existing positives in his stats (completed all 11 chases, making the frame 4 from 6 attempts at 3m+, 2 creditable runs over the GN fences and a significant drop in mark and weight from his 2012 GN run) that he retains place potential on GS or better. Some cut in the ground at Aintree, to slow the pace, would no doubt be much preferred.
By way of a reminder, Swing Bill was 58L 16th in the Kim Muir (also folding a mile from home after going well) before making 6th in the last GN so modest performances at The Festival by horses with proficiency over the GN fences can be deceptive but one has to wonder whether Henderson will send him to Aintree on 5 April after his last two runs or concludes that he's run out of time to get him ready this year. If he does run, I’ll be content to have him on my betting slip, having backed him ante-post at a big enough price (50/1 e/w 5 places before the weights were unveiled) to make a place worthwhile (though I have a rather nasty feeling he’ll run a blinder and come home 6th). Indeed, as things currently stand, with other possibles one-by-one falling by the wayside, according to my model, Shaka has the 4th best stats on GS and better behind T43, Monbeg Dude and Chance Du Roy. That may change before the week is out of course.
TOUR DES CHAMPS (11.5L 5th), STANDING OVATION (12L 6th) and ALFIE SHERRIN (14L 8th) all ran fine preps but for a race other than the GN, being in all probability too low in the weights to make the cut, while WRONG TURN (PU) and SOLIX (remote 16th) made up the numbers.
The one that is likely to make the cut that did improve his GN stat-profile today was THE PACKAGE, a fine staying-on 8.75L 3rd in his first run for a year, though of course it sets him up for the infamous “bounce" (aka “flop”) in his next run.
It is 4 years since his only previous attempt at the GN when, as a 7 year-old with 10.07, he UR’d at the 19th when in mid-div. He was hardly looking a natural over the GN fences that day but few 7 year-olds do and so is given the benefit of the doubt stats-wise, having completed more than a circuit. That UR is his only tip-up in 16 chases and 9 hurdles and he’s subsequently run creditably in the Bet365 (aka “Whitbread”) and made the frame in the 2012 Hennessy and the corresponding race today 2 years ago.
Due to carry just 10.04 at Aintree he could run a big race but, despite his excellent run today, his GN stat-profile suggests minor place potential at best, rating slightly behind Shakalakaboomboom (difficult though that may be to believe after their respective performances this afternoon).
Tomorrow it’s the turn of the XC boys, including 6 GN entries. More anon.
This is a credible prep for the GN, despite the questionable test of stamina that the XC represents. Silver Birch was a close 2nd in it before holding off McKelvey to win the 2007 GN (the last Irish-trained winner). However, Silver Birch had a lot more on his CV than XC form, being a former winner of the Welsh National (proven stamina) and Becher chase (GN fence form).
None of the 6 runners today have that quality of GN stat-profile but, for the record:
BALTAHAZAR KING (6/1 today, 33/1 for the GN) - winner of the Festival XC 2 years ago and a terrific record over the course but even if he were to win with top-weight today, he failed to get home at Aintree last year under 10.12. He'd run prominently but it wasn't a break-neck pace and he began to falter before 2nd Becher. With at least 10.13 to carry on 5 April, though he could show well for a long way, it's difficult to see him figuring at the business end.
BIG SHU (9/2 today, 40/1 for the GN) - Hunter chaser turned XC specialist from Ireland and winner of the 4m1f La Touche on desperate ground and of this race last year. Stamina in bucket loads but all of his 3m+ form is in XC races, all on soft ground (even his win at the last Festival was timed at 41secs slower than standard, a much slower pace than consistent with the GS official description). He's likely to find things happening way too quickly for him at Aintree, though if he goes well at a genuine decent ground pace today, he could elevate his stats to minor place potential. One to put the stop-watch on.
QUANTITATIVEEASING (14/1 today, 66/1 for the GN) - did not stay in the 2011 Irish National and hasn't made the frame in 6 attempts at 3m+. May get the trip today if the pace is slow enough but won't do so at Aintree.
SIRE COLLONGES - (12/1 today, 50/1 for the GN) - an 8 year-old shaping up as a good XC specialist but hasn't done enough over conventional fences to warrant interest in the GN, where it typically takes an 8 year-old with form in Class 1 chases to be in the shake-up.
QUISCOVER FONTAINE and ANY CURRENCY complete the half dozen but are too low in the GN weights to make the cut and, in any event, have poor prior GN runs to blot their profiles.
The story will be different tomorrow when the Kim Muir is run and several runners have the opportunity to boost their GN credentials meaningfully.
TTFN
A number of horses running well in the GN had used this as their final prep, though it’s been a while since a GN winner did so so (Mr Frisk was 7.5L 4th in the KM before winning the 1990 GN). However, with the mental scars still painful, Sunnyhillboy won the KM with 11.11 in 2012 before being nosed into GN 2nd by Neptune Collonges.
In between times, several have run respectably in it before being placed in the same-season GN (Encore Un Peu in 1996, Camelot Knight in 197, Liberthine in 2007 and Hello Bud in 2010) and Ballabriggs won it with 11.12 the season before his GN win in 2011.
Stats-wise, as a 0-145 handicap, the higher-weighted horses tend to occupy the sweet spot below 11.00 in the GN weights and a going well in the KM (as in any Festival chase) is likely to mean that the horse will be "well-in" by several lbs in the GN a few weeks later. Doing so with a big weight over a 3.25m trip ticks an important GN stamina stat-box.
There are 9 running in this year’s KM with GN entries and several (3 in particular) have a chance to enhance their GN stats meaningfully. Those 3 are, in card order:
TRANQUIL SEA (20/1 tomorrow and 66/1 for the GN) – only one 12 year-old has won the KM since inauguration in 1946 (in 1981) but, with two creditable 22f runs over the GN fences with 11.07+, a win or near-miss as top-weight in the KM would give this formerly top-class 2.5 miler strong place potential in the GN on GS or better (a winning chance if on the easy side of Good at Aintree). He would carry just 10.00 at Aintree but, unfortunately, being 74th in the GN weights is highly unlikely to make the cut.
TWIRLING MAGNET (20/1 tomorrow and 66/1 for the GN) – from the Jonjo O’Neil yard and having his first run for 131 days (having been on the go through last summer), a win or near-miss with 11.10 in the KM would give this 8 year-old, due to carry 10.05 at Aintree, a winning GN stat-profile on GS or better (the quicker the going at Aintree, the better his chance). He should make the cut being 50th (at best) in the GN weights.
SAME DIFFERENCE (14/1 tomorrow and 40/1 for the GN) – last year’s KM winner, no horse has won back-to-back KMs since 1985~6. He’s not having the best of seasons, though he ran respectably in the Hennessy, but his close 2nd with 11.07 in a fast-run Bet365 (aka “Whitbread”) over 3.75m last April means that an OK run in the KM with 11.09 would give him place potential in the GN (due to carry just 10.04) on GS or better and a win or near-miss would elevate his stats to winning potential (the better the ground at Aintree the better his chance). 54th (at best) in the GN weights, he should get a run at Aintree.
Dear old SWING BILL (13 years young and Aintree stalwart) theoretically could give himself a winning stat-profile on GS at Aintree if he wins or goes close in the KM with 11.06 but age is surely against him doing so (was 58L 16th in the KM last year before his sterling 6th at Aintree). Odds of 33/1 tomorrow are probably short enough, given that a canter round is likely all that’s planned, but if he were to go close there would be worse 100/1 shots for the GN. However, at 69th in the weights it’s touch-and-go whether he would get a chance on 5 April.
OUR FATHER, LOST GLORY, SAINT ARE, THERE’S NO PANIC and QUINZ complete the 9 but, for various reasons, are unlikely to be troubling the judge at Aintree, however they run tomorrow.
• Won over 3.5m with 11.07 (Ulster National)
• Age (11) and weight (10.06) good
• Been busy (10 races) but successful (6 finishes <10L) this season - busy is good not bad for GN stats
Negative:
• Didn’t get too far (8th fence – after The Chair but before Bechers) when tipping up over the GN fences in the Becher Chase - not a “red-line” but hardly encouraging because it’s his only attempt at stiff-fences at a LH track.
• Indeed, he’s never won at a LH chase track and only had one near-miss (Leopardstown) – not that he has to go right-handed but, unless all form is in Ireland, it’s a GN stat-negative not to have won or gone close over fences at the likes of Cheltenham, Newbury, Chepstow or Wetherby or have had a decent spin over the GN fences.
All in all, PdR’s is an OK GN stat-profile and he could put in a bold show but my model rates him as minor place potential at best and he would need two or three rated higher to fail to achieve it.
If you fancy him I’d think about waiting for the 6th place to be offered.
PS He wouldn't want it Soft or worse
None of those running today will but, despite jumping terribly, they way Same Difference battled on to claim 5th was noteworthy. He has minor place potential if he lines up at Aintree.
One by one, those with the chance to upgrade their GN stats to winning calibre have fallen short. With the GC runners' GN stats unchangeable (to a meaningful degree) and just the Midlands National on Saturday and a 26f chase at Down Royal on Monday to come as the final significant preps for GN runners, on GS or better we currently have just 3 with winning stat-profiles. In order:
T43 (fingers crossed he comes back sound tomorrow)
MONBEG DUDE
CHANCE DU ROY