OK, calm down everyone. The entries aren’t until January and the weights won’t be framed until February. However, it seemed a bit daft continuing to talk about the 2014 GN as a postscript to the Hennessy thread.
So, the news this morning is that the handicapper has raised Chance Du Roy 8lbs to OR143 for his Becher win on Saturday. That should guarantee him a GN run if Hobbs and owner want him to take his chance.
Hennessy winner Triolo d’Alene was put up to OR156 after Newbury so, if both TdA and CdR were to run in the GN, at current ORs CdR would carry 13lbs less than TdA.
A comparison:
• Both have won over the GN fences - TdA over 2.75m (2013 Topham), CdR over 3.25m (2013 Becher). CdR was also 4.5L 2nd in the 2012 Topham.
• TdA beat CdR in his Topham win by 25L but was receiving 14lbs from him - there would be a 27lb reversal come 5 April (at current ORs)
• CdR will be 10 years old come April (4 of last 8 GN winners were 10 y-o), TdA will be a 7 y-o. No 7 y-o has won the GN since 1940 and none has made the front 5 or finished within 20L of GN winners for at least 25 years.
• TdA will likely carry at least 11-04 in the GN. No horse younger than 9 has carried 11-04+ to win the GN for over 30 years. Even if TdA were top-weight (11-10) and even with compression of the handicap, at current ORs, it would seem likely that CdR would carry less than 11-00 (although the handicapper is a law unto himself).
• TdA is currently 20/1 fav with the bookies for the 2014 GN (23 Win fav on Betfair). CdR is 25~40/1 with the bookies (33/1 e/w 5 places, Bet365 & BetVic) but is well offered at c.80 Win (traded at 140) on Betfair.
Now, there’s plenty of time before the 2014 GN and much can happen to affect the chances of both horses (including of course their very participation – they may decide against running CdR, though Hobbs is running out of live chances to win his elusive first GN) and CdR is definitely not yet (and ultimately may not become) a GN tip because my model’s evaluation of him is liable to change depending on his prep (and of course there will be 39 other runners to evaluate).
But, as things stand at the moment, however friendless he is on the Exchanges (he could lengthen a good deal, given current weight of offers) and at the risk of him being wiped off the board if Hobbs pulls the plug, I’m perfectly content with my only current ante-post interest on the 2014 GN being (in small measure) Chance Du Roy at 100 to Win on Betfair, though, if he is one of my model's selections come the Big Day, I would principally want to be 5 or 6 places e/w with him.
115 days to go!
3
Comments
Welcome back the GN thread
CDR is the 'talking horse' of the moment. Richard Johnson is his regular rider and I would love to see him win a National before he retires. He's won most everything else (excluding a Champion Jockey title) and is unfortunate that his career coincides with that of McCoy. However, I suppose it would be unfair to jock off O'Brien. There is a lot of H2O to flow beneath the bridge before GN day, not to mention a lot of speculation and analysis.
Top jock indeed is Richard Johnson of course (class to decline to jock O'Brien off on Saturday) and very unlucky not to win it on Whats Up Boys. RJ was on CdR when runner up in the Topham but he is only 1 from 7 on him over fences and O'Brien is 5/12. Presumably depends on whether Hobbs has any other runners.
In light of the analysis I did after the last GN on the actual (rather than presumed) effects of compression of the GN handicap, CdR could end up in the sweet spot in the GN weights.
I don't want to get flagged again!
So e/w bets would have to be with bookies but the best price from them is 40/1 (4 places) or 33/1 (5 places) - not attractive enough given that they may not even enter him.
My small interest in CdR on the Betfair Win market is more a trading/hedging position. If the price shortens I can reverse it if my model ends up with other preferences or if I want to switch to an e/w interest with the bookies nearer the time. It's small enough that, if the price lengthens I'll be happy to stick with it as an extra bet in the portfolio or suck it up if he doesn't line up.
Real message of my post is that IMO the TdA bandwagon is bonkers and CdR has a stronger GN profile (certainly at the moment).
PS The other point to make (and another reason to wait on e/w bets) is that horses can run seemingly ordinary preps and their GN prices with the bookies (aswell as Betfair) can lengthen considerably before the race without detracting from an existing strong GN stat profile (eg Mon Mome and Don't Push It). Could easily happen with CdR who does tend to run hot and cold. Ergo, there could be better e/w odds available later.
You tipped us all the wink originally and that Becher chase win has made me a believer. Whether or not my stat-model ultimately rates him a winning chance, I'll be retaining my interest and be happy to cheer him home with you, even if it isn't my biggest pay-off.
Just hope Hobbsy and his owner have as much faith in him as you do!
Love this thread.
Would be interesting to know what other tipsters think if they stumble across this thread when googling grand national tips!!
I know about ordinary bookmakers, backing to win or each way, but not about Betfair which is mentioned above.
Anyone care to give an idiots' (and I mean idiots in my case) guide as to what Betfair is and how it works?
If you look at a particular race you will see in the left hand column odds at which punters are willing to lay each horse and the £ sum they are prepared to lay at those odds. Similarly, in the right hand column you will see the odds at which punters are willing to back each horse and the £ sum they are prepared to bet. Simply, once you have set up an account and deposited the amount of cash that you want to bet (or, if you are a layer, the total amount of your net liability on a race) you can "hit" any of those prices, either to back or to lay your chosen horse.
BTW, if you see a price of, say, "20" to back a horse, unlike a bookie's odds, the Betfair price includes the return of your stake. So "20" on Betfair equals 19/1 with a bookie, 30 Betfair = 29/1 bookie etc.
You can of course post your own odds and £ if you wish to lay or back a horse and are prepared to make that known in the hope that another punter may "hit" you at your stated odds. You may or may not get "hit" at that level of course.
You don't take the credit risk of the punter whose price you have taken. Having taken cash in advance from every punter, Betfair ensures you are paid out if you win. Betfair makes its profits my making a 5% charge on your net winnings on a race (that % scales down if you are a very active punter).
Why bet on Betfair?
1. You may get better prices than with the bookies (bear in mind you have the 5% Betfair commission to pay on net winnings)
2. You can lay horses aswell as back them
3. You can trade your positions and close them out (assuming that there are punters wanting to back or lay at the prices at which you want to reverse your positions). This is the biggest plus for me.
I've almost certainly left out something important but I hope that gives you the basics.
If I've said anything confusing just say so and I'll try to clarify.
Cheers
Same thing as the Win market, left hand column are odds and sums that layers are quoting and RH col are those quoted by backers. You'll notice that the odds tend to be approx. 20% of the odds quoted on the Win market (very approx corresponding to the 1/4 or 1/5 e/w fractions paid by the bookies on the place portion of an e/w bet) but there is no linkage between the odds quoted on the Win market and those on the Place market - they are entirely independent markets. Again, Betfair makes its money by charging you 5% of your net winnings on a market (the Win and the Place markets on the same race are different markets).
While I find the Place odds typically to be less attractive than the 1/4 or 1/5 bookies fraction, the Place market is very handy if you want to back a long shot that you fancy to grab a place but you think it really unlikely to win. Using the Betfair Place market means you can avoid the wasted 50% win component of an e/w bet with a booky.
Also I might use it to place larger Place bets relative to Win bets and thereby create a book of bets (say covering 4 or 5 horses in the GN) and be more or less indifferent as to which one wins or gets placed.
In practice, for the GN, I tend to prefer to use BetVic's 6 places as the main component of backing my selections e/w and then use the Betfair Win (to lay) and/or Place market (to back) to finesse my positions and achieve (more or less) the same level payouts on my selections.
The Betfair Place odds tend to be less than the 1/4 or 1/5 fraction (I guess) simply because there's quite a lot of long shot backers who prefer it to e/w bets (supply and demand).
While the 5% Betfair charge may seem a lot, bear in mind that the bookies are trying to make a margin on the book that they create and so the mathematical aggregate of the odds they quote gives them a theoretical profit margin (though they rarely hedge out their risk on all horses in a race of course). Don't forget the flexibility to trade out of your positions before the race - that may be very valuable to you. Also, "net winnings" means after you have deducted losing stakes on the same market.
Give it a whirl!
9 times out of 10 if I'm gonna do a first goal scorer bet, I'd use betfair.
If you like a punt on outsiders it is definitely the way to go. A 16-1 shot at a bookie would usually be around 20s on betfair.
Career stats tick a number of GN boxes and a decent performance could make things look very interesting.
Why the bloody hell didn't I back him ante-post for the Big One? What a klutz!
Should have done it after his 4th in that last 3.5m chase, which removed the main doubt about him performing on decent ground. That win today has pretty much ensured he'll get the nod from my model, unless the handicapper batters him.
Not worth diving in now at 20s. Oh well, c'est la vie.
.....and Sunnyhillboy has his first win since his nose 2nd in the 2012 GN...............they're like bloody buses.
In stark contrast, if that really is Burton Port at his current best, it's a real shame that injury has taken such a toll on a tough little horse who's still only 9.