115 entries, top-rated being Tidal Bay (168). Henderson's include the next 3 in the current official ratings: Long Run, Hunt Ball and Triolo d'Alene (still bookies' fav); but his best chance, according to my model and (very much) depending on his prep run and weight, may be Shakalakaboomboom (unraced since not quite getting home as an 8y-o 2 years ago). Teaforthree and 13y-o Swing Bill are the only representatives of last year's first 6 to be entered. Sunnyhillboy and Seabass try again and On His Own will attempt to complete on the third time of asking. Welsh Nat winners Monbeg Dude and Mountainous and near-things Hawkes Point, One In a Milan, Vintage Star and Merry King are entered as is Scottish Nat winner Godsmejudge. Becher Chase winner Chance Du Roy is entered as are Hennessy near-things Rocky Creek, Highland Lodge and Burton Port, together with a serious number of other interesting runners. A strong list of entries and how the handicapper frames the weights will be very interesting and crucial to the chances of many. 11 Feb is the day.
Could it be that the 2014 Grand National winner will have raced on the Polytrack earlier in the season? Will be keeping a beady eye on Shakalakaboomboom, returning from 657 day absence, tomorrow in a bumper for jumpers at Kempton on the All-Weather. Currently 50/1 for the Big One and has much to prove but the handicapper has (unusually) cut a long laid-off horse some slack and dropped his chase OR to 140 - 9lbs lower than when running creditably as an 8y-o in the 2012 GN. On the radar screen.
Could it be that the 2014 Grand National winner will have raced on the Polytrack earlier in the season? Will be keeping a beady eye on Shakalakaboomboom, returning from 657 days absence, tomorrow in a bumper for jumpers at Kempton on the All-Weather. Currently 50/1 for the Big One and has much to prove but the handicapper has (unusually) cut a long laid-off horse some slack and dropped his OR to 140 - 9lbs lower than when running creditably as an 8y-o in the 2012 GN. On the radar screen.
Any horse returning from an absence of more than 500 days will not be carrying any of my money - unless, of course, it was once under the care of Barney Curley and that the only number appearing in its last half a dozen runs is "0".
Though somewhat early, as the weights are not framed until 11Feb, BetVic are currently offering Non-Runner Free Bet on the GN and paying 5 places each-way...... Go on, pick out a long-shot; it's not as though there's anything else to occupy your thoughts at the mo. :0)
Weights announced on Tuesday but we already know that Tidal Bay will carry 11.10 if he lines up on 5th April (almost certainly his last run before retirement) and, judging by his staying on 8.5L 2nd in the Irish Hennessy this afternoon, he's in good shape. He's capable of running a big race on Good-to-Soft but, on the stats, this is shaping up to be an exceptionally competitive GN, and TB will definitely need it Soft or worse to have a chance of being the first top-weight to win since Rummy in 1974 and the first 13 year old to win since Sergeant Murphy in 1923. Depending on the weights and preps of others, he may not be the only runner with a winning stat profile on Soft~Heavy, or even have the strongest chance, but, for the reasons explained in earlier posts, a Tidal Bay GN victory is not quite the bonkers proposition it would seem at first glance. Whether or not it's written in the stars, maybe it's written in the jet stream that 2014 could be his year. The bookies seem to think so. TB now clear fav with SkyBet, Stan James & Lads.
Any idea where this "full list of all the horses running in the 2014 Grand National" has come from, and why lots of the horses are missing (for example Shakalakaboomboom etc.)
Any idea where this "full list of all the horses running in the 2014 Grand National" has come from, and why lots of the horses are missing (for example Shakalakaboomboom etc.)
Chicago Grey at 40/1 looks interesting. Shame he's not entered. :0)
It's just a guide powered by oblg betting guide. Check odds checker for full list of potential runners.
Peanuts, can't see Tidal Bay lugging the weight and winning at 13.
Opinions, opinions, opinions. No chance if he doesn't get his ground. Bit early for my model's final selections of course and there will probably be one or two that it ranks ahead of him on Soft/Heavy (including Yer Man) but, on that ground, his stat profile is consistent with several near-missing top-weights in previous Soft ground GNs. Age an unknown because of the small sample but 11-12 year olds gone well in last 4 GNs, he has moderate mileage and lugging top-weight to just miss out in the Welsh Nat on Hvy shows he's still got it. Phil Smith will probably hand him a lower mark than he had at Chepstow. IM(model's)O, he won't be stopping, even with top-weight.
Weights out later today folks. 53 days to go and, courtesy of the weather and a lot of going-sensitive runners, the 2014 GN is a very tricky ante-post proposition.......................or is it?
One stat to chew on that may assist:
Horses formerly placed 1st~3rd in the Welsh National have won 8 of the 24 GNs run (ignoring the farcical race of 2001) since 1988 and have accounted for at least one of the paying places (1st~5th) in 16 of them.
Notably, however, in the 10 GNs run on Good-to-Soft, Soft or Heavy (official going description) they have accounted for 6 winners and at least one of the paying places (1st~5th) in all 10.
Welsh National 1st~3rds entered in the 2014 GN include:
Tidal Bay Teaforthree Monbeg Dude Mountainous (trainer has suggested the Irish Nat may be preferred target) Hawkes Point
Also entered are One In A Milan, Merry King and Vintage Star (4~6th in this year's WN)
Easy isn't it?
PS No, these are not my model's definite selections but you can expect to see at least one or two of them figure prominently.
Guardian Blog (Chris Cook) reports on the weights unveiled at Noon:
QUOTE
As has become customary, Phil Smith has compressed the top of the Grand National weights, so that the horses with most weight are treated a bit better than they would be in any other handicap. Here are the horses which have benefited from such treatment this year:
Tidal Bay 7lb well in
Long Run 3lb
Hunt Ball 1lb
Roi Du Mee 1lb
Triolo D'Alene 1lb
Rocky Creek 1lb
Katenko 1lb
Boston Bob 1lb
On His Own 1lb
Tidal Bay's rating, for the purpose of this race, is 161, meaning he is actually a couple of pounds lower than when he was beaten three-quarters of a length in the Welsh National. He is 5lb lower than when he was second in the 2012 Hennessy, beating everything bar Bobs Worth, who had 6lb less on his back.
Last year, Tidal Bay was allowed into the National on a mark 9lb below his official one, provoking the ire of trainers including Ted Walsh. This horse is still up to winning Grade Ones, they pointed out. Why let him in light to any extent, never mind half a stone?
But top weights have a rotten record in Nationals over the past 30-odd years and I think Smith is right to compress differences at the top, giving those horses something like a fair shake. In any case, this is the defence he put forward this morning:
"Tidal Bay is carrying top weight and he's 13 years old. If you look back through the history of the race, there wouldn't be too many 13 years old that have won carrying top weight. I suspect the answer is none.
"If I have Tidal Bay on 168, his true rating, he's got to probably perform to 176 to win it and he's never ever been 176 in any of his 13 years. So I'd be condemning him to having only place prospects at best.
"It would be totally unfair to expect a horse, at 13, to perform to a significantly higher level than he's ever done before. What I'm asking him to do is to run to the same level as when he won the Lexus, the same level as when he was second to Bobs Worth in the Hennessy. To win the race, that's the level he's got to perform to."
Sergeant Murphy is, in fact, the only 13-year-old to have won the Grand National since 1900. He carried 11-3 in 1923, which I presume wasn't top weight. The previous 13-year-old winner was Why Not in 1894 and he carried 11-13, which may well have been top weight.
Any idea where this "full list of all the horses running in the 2014 Grand National" has come from, and why lots of the horses are missing (for example Shakalakaboomboom etc.)
Chicago Grey at 40/1 looks interesting. Shame he's not entered. :0)
Hoping he runs in the cross country at Punchestown
Analysis to come in due course but Teaforthree (10.12 - 5lbs less to carry than when 3rd last GN), Monbeg Dude (10.09) and Shakalakaboomboom (10.03) look exceptionally interesting.
Teaforthree surely is the stand out if conditions suit
Money's down (20/1 with BetVic NRFB, 5 places). Versatile on ground. Has to have at least 1 prep - Curtis talking about 2. Major chance if he arrives at Aintree fully fit (had some kind of niggle early season) but ran OK for seasonal bow in the WN as he takes a race or two to get his season going.
Will be posting stat analysis on these 2 shortly but TEAFORTHREE and MONBEG DUDE are definitely on my betting slip (e/w 5 places). Both 25/1 with Ladbrokes (4 places only) and 20/1 with Bet365 and others paying 5 e/w places. BetVic is 20/1 T43 and is Non Runner Free Bet (& 5 places) but only 16/1 Monbeg Dude.
In the absence of Cappa Bleu (boo hiss) I have just Burton Point at present carrying my money. And judging by the weights Jonjo seems to have successfully convinced the handicapper that he isn't the horse of old ;-)
In the absence of Cappa Bleu (boo hiss) I have just Burton Point at present carrying my money. And judging by the weights Jonjo seems to have successfully convinced the handicapper that he isn't the horse of old ;-)
Trouble is, he may have persuaded the horse of that as well )
Will be posting stat analysis on these 2 shortly but TEAFORTHREE and MONBEG DUDE are definitely on my betting slip (e/w 5 places). Both 25/1 with Ladbrokes (4 places only) and 20/1 with Bet365 and others paying 5 e/w places. BetVic is 20/1 T43 and is Non Runner Free Bet (& 5 places) but only 16/1 Monbeg Dude.
PaddyPower also offering 20/1 on both at 5 places. (NOT non runner free bet)
OK, the weights have been fed into model and it has 2 firm selections for the betting slip, as they both have winning stat-profiles on any ground (one needing just an OK run in his prep). In no particular order (though that might change depending on their preps):
MONBEG DUDE (25/1 Ladbrokes [4 places], 20/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power & Sportingbet [5 places]). • Stamina proven when winning the 2012 Welsh National (run in Jan 2013) on heavy, touching off Teaforthree (3rd 2013 GN). Strong correlation between WN and GN success, particularly GS~Hvy GNs, noted in earlier post. He received 16lbs from T43 that day and will run with just a 3lb advantage at Aintree but he has won another Grade 3 off a 10lb higher mark since Chepstow.
• Importantly, the Dude showed his versatility as regards going with a win and near-miss in good-ground Grade 3 chases, run at a decent clip over 3.25~3.5m at Cheltenham this season, contributing to his 60% (win & near-miss) Strike Rate in 10 chases at 3m+.
• He is yet to face the GN fences and his jumping style has been a concern (prone to clatter one early on). Yet he has never fallen and his only UR in 14 runs over obstacles was with an amateur on board. His chase wins or near-misses have come at Cheltenham, Chepstow and Newbury (3 of the stiffest jumping tests in the country) and, famously, he’s received “show jumping” tuition from Zara Tindall. It would also seem that, since the last round of modifications after the 2012 GN, the Aintree fences are perhaps not quite as daunting as they once were.
• MB has typically been held up (exaggeratedly so by Paul Carberry in the WN) and that might make him vulnerable to traffic problems in the GN but it was noticeable that Tom Scudamore rode him handier in his last Cheltenham win, perhaps with Aintree in mind. Scudamore may or may not be available to pilot his brother’s charge at Aintree but Paul Carberry, GN winner on Bobbyjo, would be a fine stand-in – he rides him in his prep at Haydock on Saturday.
• His other stats are in the sweet spot for GN success: a 9 year old, will have his 4th run of the season on Saturday (49 days prior) and, despite a mark 6lbs higher than when winning at Cheltenham, allotted a very winnable weight of 10.09 in the GN. That is 8lbs more on his back than he carried to victory at Chepstow but both Hedgehunter (2005) and Mon Mome (2009) won the GN (as 9y-os) off career-high marks and carrying 11lbs+ more than when previously placed in the WN.
Courtesy of early season form, the Dude’s current stats are pretty resilient to his performance in the Grand National Trial on Saturday (in which he was 3rd last year and is fav this time), though it would put a dent in them if he tipped up. The Grand National Trial has historically been anything but and plenty of GN winners and near-things have run very moderately in it beforehand, including our next fella:
T43 was my model’s #1 selection last GN and, at the weight allotted today, is a definite for the betting slip this time. • 3rd (9.25L) in last GN with 11.03. Travelled and jumped beautifully, leading 2 out before tiring in the last furlong but was the only 1 of the 15 runners carrying 11.00+ to make the first 11 home, as the hike in weights from the defections of Tidal Bay and Albertas Run gave a significant advantage to the more lightly-weighted. With hindsight, the winner was clearly thrown in on 10.03 and T43 was only just touched off for 2nd.
• Surprisingly (to me at least), Smith has kept T43 on his current mark of 149 (OR151 last time), which means he will carry 10.12 (5lbs less) providing Tidal Bay lines up, as intended. It is rare for horses just missing in the GN to win it subsequently - Amberleigh House was the last to do so, being 3rd with 10.04 in 2003 before winning (slightly fortunately) a year later with 10.10. However, not only in the “Compression Years” (since 2000) but as far back as 1988 (at least), no horse winning or finishing <10L of the GN winner has carried less weight in the subsequent GN and, according to the stats, the difference in task between carrying 11.03 and 10.12 in the GN is massive.
• As noted above, T43 was 2nd (0.5L) to Monbeg Dude in the 2012 WN carrying 11.03 (as difficult to carry 11.00+ in the WN as it is in the GN).
• Importantly, he can go the pace of a decent-ground staying chase. Aside from his GN 3rd on GS(Gd), he won the 4m Amateur Riders’ Chase at the 2012 Festival, carrying 11.06 to win in a very respectable time for the Good (GS) official going. His sire is Oscar whose offspring tend to be versatile as to going and his dam-sire is Strong Gale whose progeny tended to like “top-of-the-ground”.
• Clearly handles the GN fences and occasion and has never tipped up in his 17 runs over obstacles. His front-running style helps keep him away from traffic problems.
• 10 years of age is perfect.
• He had a late start to the season (no bad thing after his Aintree exertions) because of a niggle in the autumn but ran respectably in the WN for his seasonal debut (27L behind the winner), given that he has never won first time out. His stat-profile (and no doubt his fitness) needs a prep and another OK performance (doesn’t need to win). Curtis is considering 2 runs prior to the GN, starting at Ascot on Saturday, which should put him spot on.
Other selections in due course, as preps are run and weather unfolds, hopefully at longer odds. Shakalakaboomboom still flashing away on the radar screen.
Comments
Henderson's include the next 3 in the current official ratings: Long Run, Hunt Ball and Triolo d'Alene (still bookies' fav); but his best chance, according to my model and (very much) depending on his prep run and weight, may be Shakalakaboomboom (unraced since not quite getting home as an 8y-o 2 years ago).
Teaforthree and 13y-o Swing Bill are the only representatives of last year's first 6 to be entered.
Sunnyhillboy and Seabass try again and On His Own will attempt to complete on the third time of asking.
Welsh Nat winners Monbeg Dude and Mountainous and near-things Hawkes Point, One In a Milan, Vintage Star and Merry King are entered as is Scottish Nat winner Godsmejudge.
Becher Chase winner Chance Du Roy is entered as are Hennessy near-things Rocky Creek, Highland Lodge and Burton Port, together with a serious number of other interesting runners.
A strong list of entries and how the handicapper frames the weights will be very interesting and crucial to the chances of many.
11 Feb is the day.
Will be keeping a beady eye on Shakalakaboomboom, returning from 657 day absence, tomorrow in a bumper for jumpers at Kempton on the All-Weather.
Currently 50/1 for the Big One and has much to prove but the handicapper has (unusually) cut a long laid-off horse some slack and dropped his chase OR to 140 - 9lbs lower than when running creditably as an 8y-o in the 2012 GN.
On the radar screen.
Go on, pick out a long-shot; it's not as though there's anything else to occupy your thoughts at the mo. :0)
He's capable of running a big race on Good-to-Soft but, on the stats, this is shaping up to be an exceptionally competitive GN, and TB will definitely need it Soft or worse to have a chance of being the first top-weight to win since Rummy in 1974 and the first 13 year old to win since Sergeant Murphy in 1923.
Depending on the weights and preps of others, he may not be the only runner with a winning stat profile on Soft~Heavy, or even have the strongest chance, but, for the reasons explained in earlier posts, a Tidal Bay GN victory is not quite the bonkers proposition it would seem at first glance.
Whether or not it's written in the stars, maybe it's written in the jet stream that 2014 could be his year.
The bookies seem to think so. TB now clear fav with SkyBet, Stan James & Lads.
Any idea where this "full list of all the horses running in the 2014 Grand National" has come from, and why lots of the horses are missing (for example Shakalakaboomboom etc.)
Check odds checker for full list of potential runners.
Peanuts, can't see Tidal Bay lugging the weight and winning at 13.
No chance if he doesn't get his ground.
Bit early for my model's final selections of course and there will probably be one or two that it ranks ahead of him on Soft/Heavy (including Yer Man) but, on that ground, his stat profile is consistent with several near-missing top-weights in previous Soft ground GNs. Age an unknown because of the small sample but 11-12 year olds gone well in last 4 GNs, he has moderate mileage and lugging top-weight to just miss out in the Welsh Nat on Hvy shows he's still got it. Phil Smith will probably hand him a lower mark than he had at Chepstow.
IM(model's)O, he won't be stopping, even with top-weight.
One stat to chew on that may assist:
Horses formerly placed 1st~3rd in the Welsh National have won 8 of the 24 GNs run (ignoring the farcical race of 2001) since 1988
and have accounted for at least one of the paying places (1st~5th) in 16 of them.
Notably, however, in the 10 GNs run on Good-to-Soft, Soft or Heavy (official going description) they have accounted for 6 winners and at least one of the paying places (1st~5th) in all 10.
Welsh National 1st~3rds entered in the 2014 GN include:
Tidal Bay
Teaforthree
Monbeg Dude
Mountainous (trainer has suggested the Irish Nat may be preferred target)
Hawkes Point
Also entered are One In A Milan, Merry King and Vintage Star (4~6th in this year's WN)
Easy isn't it?
PS No, these are not my model's definite selections but you can expect to see at least one or two of them figure prominently.
QUOTE
As has become customary, Phil Smith has compressed the top of the Grand National weights, so that the horses with most weight are treated a bit better than they would be in any other handicap. Here are the horses which have benefited from such treatment this year:
Tidal Bay 7lb well in
Long Run 3lb
Hunt Ball 1lb
Roi Du Mee 1lb
Triolo D'Alene 1lb
Rocky Creek 1lb
Katenko 1lb
Boston Bob 1lb
On His Own 1lb
Tidal Bay's rating, for the purpose of this race, is 161, meaning he is actually a couple of pounds lower than when he was beaten three-quarters of a length in the Welsh National. He is 5lb lower than when he was second in the 2012 Hennessy, beating everything bar Bobs Worth, who had 6lb less on his back.
Last year, Tidal Bay was allowed into the National on a mark 9lb below his official one, provoking the ire of trainers including Ted Walsh. This horse is still up to winning Grade Ones, they pointed out. Why let him in light to any extent, never mind half a stone?
But top weights have a rotten record in Nationals over the past 30-odd years and I think Smith is right to compress differences at the top, giving those horses something like a fair shake. In any case, this is the defence he put forward this morning:
"Tidal Bay is carrying top weight and he's 13 years old. If you look back through the history of the race, there wouldn't be too many 13 years old that have won carrying top weight. I suspect the answer is none.
"If I have Tidal Bay on 168, his true rating, he's got to probably perform to 176 to win it and he's never ever been 176 in any of his 13 years. So I'd be condemning him to having only place prospects at best.
"It would be totally unfair to expect a horse, at 13, to perform to a significantly higher level than he's ever done before. What I'm asking him to do is to run to the same level as when he won the Lexus, the same level as when he was second to Bobs Worth in the Hennessy. To win the race, that's the level he's got to perform to."
Sergeant Murphy is, in fact, the only 13-year-old to have won the Grand National since 1900. He carried 11-3 in 1923, which I presume wasn't top weight. The previous 13-year-old winner was Why Not in 1894 and he carried 11-13, which may well have been top weight.
UNQUOTE
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/26135845
Analysis to come in due course but Teaforthree (10.12 - 5lbs less to carry than when 3rd last GN), Monbeg Dude (10.09) and Shakalakaboomboom (10.03) look exceptionally interesting.
Versatile on ground.
Has to have at least 1 prep - Curtis talking about 2. Major chance if he arrives at Aintree fully fit (had some kind of niggle early season) but ran OK for seasonal bow in the WN as he takes a race or two to get his season going.
180 Teaforthree
179 Tidal Bay
178 Highland Lodge, Wayward Prince, Shakalakaboomboom
177? Kauto Stone
176 Sunnyhillboy, The Package
175 Big Shu, Tatenen
174p Rocky Creek
174 Godsmejudge, Katenko, Roi Du Mee, Rubi Light
Both 25/1 with Ladbrokes (4 places only) and 20/1 with Bet365 and others paying 5 e/w places. BetVic is 20/1 T43 and is Non Runner Free Bet (& 5 places) but only 16/1 Monbeg Dude.
In no particular order (though that might change depending on their preps):
MONBEG DUDE (25/1 Ladbrokes [4 places], 20/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power & Sportingbet [5 places]).
• Stamina proven when winning the 2012 Welsh National (run in Jan 2013) on heavy, touching off Teaforthree (3rd 2013 GN). Strong correlation between WN and GN success, particularly GS~Hvy GNs, noted in earlier post. He received 16lbs from T43 that day and will run with just a 3lb advantage at Aintree but he has won another Grade 3 off a 10lb higher mark since Chepstow.
• Importantly, the Dude showed his versatility as regards going with a win and near-miss in good-ground Grade 3 chases, run at a decent clip over 3.25~3.5m at Cheltenham this season, contributing to his 60% (win & near-miss) Strike Rate in 10 chases at 3m+.
• He is yet to face the GN fences and his jumping style has been a concern (prone to clatter one early on). Yet he has never fallen and his only UR in 14 runs over obstacles was with an amateur on board. His chase wins or near-misses have come at Cheltenham, Chepstow and Newbury (3 of the stiffest jumping tests in the country) and, famously, he’s received “show jumping” tuition from Zara Tindall. It would also seem that, since the last round of modifications after the 2012 GN, the Aintree fences are perhaps not quite as daunting as they once were.
• MB has typically been held up (exaggeratedly so by Paul Carberry in the WN) and that might make him vulnerable to traffic problems in the GN but it was noticeable that Tom Scudamore rode him handier in his last Cheltenham win, perhaps with Aintree in mind. Scudamore may or may not be available to pilot his brother’s charge at Aintree but Paul Carberry, GN winner on Bobbyjo, would be a fine stand-in – he rides him in his prep at Haydock on Saturday.
• His other stats are in the sweet spot for GN success: a 9 year old, will have his 4th run of the season on Saturday (49 days prior) and, despite a mark 6lbs higher than when winning at Cheltenham, allotted a very winnable weight of 10.09 in the GN. That is 8lbs more on his back than he carried to victory at Chepstow but both Hedgehunter (2005) and Mon Mome (2009) won the GN (as 9y-os) off career-high marks and carrying 11lbs+ more than when previously placed in the WN.
Courtesy of early season form, the Dude’s current stats are pretty resilient to his performance in the Grand National Trial on Saturday (in which he was 3rd last year and is fav this time), though it would put a dent in them if he tipped up. The Grand National Trial has historically been anything but and plenty of GN winners and near-things have run very moderately in it beforehand, including our next fella:
TEAFORTHREE (25/1 Ladbrokes, Totesport, Betfred[4 places], 20/1 BetVictor NRFB and 5 places]).
T43 was my model’s #1 selection last GN and, at the weight allotted today, is a definite for the betting slip this time.
• 3rd (9.25L) in last GN with 11.03. Travelled and jumped beautifully, leading 2 out before tiring in the last furlong but was the only 1 of the 15 runners carrying 11.00+ to make the first 11 home, as the hike in weights from the defections of Tidal Bay and Albertas Run gave a significant advantage to the more lightly-weighted. With hindsight, the winner was clearly thrown in on 10.03 and T43 was only just touched off for 2nd.
• Surprisingly (to me at least), Smith has kept T43 on his current mark of 149 (OR151 last time), which means he will carry 10.12 (5lbs less) providing Tidal Bay lines up, as intended. It is rare for horses just missing in the GN to win it subsequently - Amberleigh House was the last to do so, being 3rd with 10.04 in 2003 before winning (slightly fortunately) a year later with 10.10. However, not only in the “Compression Years” (since 2000) but as far back as 1988 (at least), no horse winning or finishing <10L of the GN winner has carried less weight in the subsequent GN and, according to the stats, the difference in task between carrying 11.03 and 10.12 in the GN is massive.
• As noted above, T43 was 2nd (0.5L) to Monbeg Dude in the 2012 WN carrying 11.03 (as difficult to carry 11.00+ in the WN as it is in the GN).
• Importantly, he can go the pace of a decent-ground staying chase. Aside from his GN 3rd on GS(Gd), he won the 4m Amateur Riders’ Chase at the 2012 Festival, carrying 11.06 to win in a very respectable time for the Good (GS) official going. His sire is Oscar whose offspring tend to be versatile as to going and his dam-sire is Strong Gale whose progeny tended to like “top-of-the-ground”.
• Clearly handles the GN fences and occasion and has never tipped up in his 17 runs over obstacles. His front-running style helps keep him away from traffic problems.
• 10 years of age is perfect.
• He had a late start to the season (no bad thing after his Aintree exertions) because of a niggle in the autumn but ran respectably in the WN for his seasonal debut (27L behind the winner), given that he has never won first time out. His stat-profile (and no doubt his fitness) needs a prep and another OK performance (doesn’t need to win). Curtis is considering 2 runs prior to the GN, starting at Ascot on Saturday, which should put him spot on.
Other selections in due course, as preps are run and weather unfolds, hopefully at longer odds. Shakalakaboomboom still flashing away on the radar screen.