Monbeg Dude was very impressive .. Michael Scudamore the trainer said after that he is a possible for the GN .. he didn't sound too keen t b h... but only if the going was on the softer side of good or softer
Monbeg Dude was very impressive .. Michael Scudamore the trainer said after that he is a possible for the GN .. he didn't sound too keen t b h... but only if the going was on the softer side of good or softer
Monbeg Dude was very impressive .. Michael Scudamore the trainer said after that he is a possible for the GN .. he didn't sound too keen t b h... but only if the going was on the softer side of good or softer
Cheers AbS .. connections must have made their choice after Scudamore's interview .. CH4 also interviewed Zara Phillips who has given Monbeg some schooling in show jumping techniques in how to approach an obstacle .. she herself has a big obstacle .. she is due to give birth anytime soon .. Mike Tindall, the nervous daddy and part owner of Monbeg was also interviewed
His jumping was markedly better today but you never know how a GN debutant will take to the fences. Maybe the fact that he's been a bit iffy in the past is a plus if they've given him show jumping-type schooling. Certainly seemed to do the trick and didn't stop him getting from one side to the other pretty rapidly. Also, the modified GN fences would seem to have had an effect, certainly last year when the whole field negotiated Bechers for probably the first time ever, though a sensible pace was important no doubt. Still, you never know until the day. The occasion as much as the fences can frazzle even experienced horses, though he seems a tough character. Tom Scu was pretty emotional after crossing the line. The Dude's obviously very special to the yard, understandably so. Ground-wise he clearly doesn't need it testing to be competitive as was thought before and after Chepstow (travelled really well today, as has been said) and for safety reasons one would hope that Aintree ensure, as they did last year, that the going is no quicker than Gd(GS). Having swerved Chepstow this time with the intention of lining up at Aintree, it would be very disappointing (and worrying) if the trainer thought they hadn't produced that sort of ground. In the meantime......the handicapper's got to have his say yet of course. He'll surely get a rise that will guarantee a run but if they didn't want to screw up his GN chances by finishing in the front 2 in the Welsh National, hopefully they haven't done so today (I doubt it but the handicapper will give his view next week).
tell me about Peanuts, I backed Sunnyhillboy is his last race a month ago, have been caught with customers all afternoon and missed him today. The dude was so impressive, I had a little on Burton Port and he is a shadow of what he was 2 years ago.I thought the dude's jumping was first class and I haven't seen he travel that well up with the pace before.
Always a mystery when to back Jonjo's runners (as Addick Addict frequently cautions). Obviously a nice win today but Sunnyhillboy's chances are well and truly in the hands of the handicapper and we'll have to wait until February for that. Gave him no chance whatsoever last year. Very sad to see Burton Port labouring (had a nadge on him e/w today myself). Seemed willing enough, just not able sadly.
News this morning that Monbeg Dude has been raised 8lbs by the handicapper to OR146 after his impressive win at Cheltenham last Friday. As I said then, that win pretty much ensured he’ll get the nod from my model, unless the handicapper batters him. A mark of 146 surely guarantees him a run but could it impair his chance for glory? From the perspective of the model, given the unique characteristics of the GN, running off a significant career high Official Rating is of no relevance. It crucially depends on the absolute weight a runner has to carry. At first glance, he should be fine: • Using current ORs, if Long Run (OR168) were the highest-rated entry and, under GN handicap compression, were dropped 6~9lbs to 159~162 (by comparison, Tidal Bay was dropped 9lbs from 171 to 162 last year), that would put Triolo d'Alene on 11.04~11.07 (assuming, in light of his Topham win, no compression adjustment) and Monbeg Dude on 10.08~10.11 in the GN. FYI, Chance Du Roy would carry 10.05~10.08. • This range would be consistent with the 5 GNs since 2009 (when top-weight was lowered from 11.12 to 11.10), in which runners rated 146 carried 10.09~10.12. So far so good but we need to be a little careful, especially as regards the chances of all those in the OR146~151 range, about the possibility of a significant hike in the weights caused by defections; as occurred last year, to the material cost of several runners, including Teaforthree (see GN Analysis Part 2 on last page of Official 2013 Grand National Thread if this is of interest). If Long Run were not to run in the GN, for whatever reason, there is currently only Tidal Bay (OR163) between Long Run and Triolo d'Alene (156) in the present ratings that are serious GN entry candidates among UK-based horses. Of course, the handicapper may rate one or more of the Irish raiders above 156 but Irish trainers won’t necessarily send their runners over if they’ve been allotted what they regard as an unwinnable weight and/or unfair mark. Teaforthree (OR153) might ascend into the space if he were to win the Welsh National, though WN trends suggest he won't, and Tidal Bay is far from a definite GN runner (ground and age potentially deterring connections). There could be an unexpected higher-rated entry but, absent Long Run, it's not at all inconceivable that TdA would end up as prospective GN top-weight (OR156 was GN top-weight in 2008). If so, the Dude would carry at least 11.00, more if TdA had benefitted at all from compression or if TdA's connections didn't want the 7y-o to run as GN top-weight and decided to wait for another year. Monbeg Dude’s stats are currently strong enough to handle being elevated slightly above the 11.01 threshold on his favoured soft going but it would be touch and go on better ground and, on any going, the quality of his prep would become more important from a stats perspective. Entries close 28 Jan, weights published 13 Feb.
Not wanting to detract from our GN, but I've been told to look at panther claw ew in the welsh GN. Only trouble is it is also entered the paddy power chase in Ireland the day before. Any views PM?
Not wanting to detract from our GN, but I've been told to look at panther claw ew in the welsh GN. Only trouble is it is also entered the paddy power chase in Ireland the day before. Any views PM?
Will do shortly PBS. Need to see the confirms (Monday) and/or decs (Friday 27th) because Tidal Bay's participation or not will be crucial (weights wise) for the chances of a lot. Will crunch the stats after that.
As you have so clearly stated PM, my cynicism with regards to Jonjo's horses is limitless. For that reason I wouldn't give up on Burton Port. He was moved by Trevor Hemmings from Nicky Henderson and now occupies Albertas Run's old box and that in itself is a hint that he felt Jonjo was capable of doing something Henderson wouldn'tcouldn't. BP's dropping mark will help the cause!
So I too have had an interest in BP. And needless to say I'm still following that other one off the cliff - rather in the hope that Moloney rides it differently or, even better, he is "jocked off". Frankly I'd rather not die wondering if CP was good enough though, admittedly, his best days may well be behind him.
off to Ascot tomorrow for the Dad's annual lash up (from sons football team) I absolutely love national hunt racing.The great thing about ascot on a friday is you get to use the outstanding facilities without all the hustle and bustle of the royal meeting.
Slightly off topic Peanuts, what did you think of Chicago Grey,s run in the cross country.
Looked very promising to me.
Chief, I think you're probably mixing him up with the winner, another grey, Sire Collonges. Chicago Grey didn't really put in any kind of show. I think CG's GN chance (such as his dodgy jumping ever permitted) came and went unluckily when brought down in 2012. Ran a stinker last time and no prospects next time (according to my model) even if his rating is high enough to permit another shot (doubt that it will tbh).
I think there are useful pointers to the GN to be found occasionally in XC form but only in context also of "conventional course" form. People say that the unusual fences are good training for the GN and that's valid but it's only a small part of the GN equation. They often cite the instance of Silver Birch who ran well in the Festival XC before winning the 2007 GN, but he was already a Welsh National and Becher Chase winner. As a GN pointer, the XC close 2nd was important for demonstrating his well-being rather than his aptitude for the GN - that was clear already. Dear old Spot Thedifference (a XC legend) came a staying-on (never nearer than at the finish) 35L 5th in the 2004 GN but was fairly undistinguished in 2 other GNs and that tells it all, I think. The main problem is it's one thing to show stamina and proficiency over XC courses run at XC pace but that pace is significantly slower than the pace of a typical GN on comparable ground. Let's take the example of another XC star, Balthazar King. He won the Festival XC in 2012 on Good to Firm (by all accounts, more like Firm bordering Hard in parts). He did so in a record time for the race, 12.3 seconds faster than standard for the XC course. That equated to 15.22 seconds per furlong over 31 furlongs. He is a good ground horse and so one might excuse his failure in the slightly easier ground 2013 GN (though it's not irrelevant that he didn't get home having set the pace on ground that was hardly testing). In order for him to win a GN on Good to Firm going, on past timings over the last 25 years, he would have to be able to go at 15 seconds per furlong over 4.5 furlongs further than the Festival XC. 0.22 secs per furlong may not sound much but it equates to almost 8 secs over 4.5 miles and that equates to about 48 lengths behind at the post. You can pick holes in that calculation because you are comparing apples and oranges with the GN and XC (the GN half a mile further, the XC more twisty and undulating) but that is the point - they are not so similar a test in complete terms in fact. I was very interested for the 2012 GN in a budding XC star, Scotsirish (went off fav in the Festival XC that Balthazar King won but very sadly broke a leg) but that was because he had been a near-top class 2-2.5 miler on conventional courses (therefore had pace to travel in a GN), had run well over the GN fences in two fast-pace 22f Tophams (carrying big weights) and the combination of decent form in big 3m handicaps on conventional courses in testing conditions and impressive XC form indicated that, at least on his good ground, he might just be able to stay the marathon trip - certainly the model thought so and his 200/1 Betfair price was too appealing to resist - alas he never had the opportunity.....I still think he'd have been in the money, but then I would say that wouldn't I ? ;o) In conclusion, the XC form can be a very useful component of a GN winning or strong-run profile but, absent appropriate form over conventional courses, in itself is of limited value. Sire Collonges was a worthy winner on Friday (in a typically moderate pace XC) and could become a regular winner, maybe a star, over XC but as yet he doesn't tick any boxes over conventional courses. He may do in due course but currently wouldn't make any appeal as regards a GN IMO.
As you have so clearly stated PM, my cynicism with regards to Jonjo's horses is limitless. For that reason I wouldn't give up on Burton Port. He was moved by Trevor Hemmings from Nicky Henderson and now occupies Albertas Run's old box and that in itself is a hint that he felt Jonjo was capable of doing something Henderson wouldn'tcouldn't. BP's dropping mark will help the cause!
So I too have had an interest in BP. And needless to say I'm still following that other one off the cliff - rather in the hope that Moloney rides it differently or, even better, he is "jocked off". Frankly I'd rather not die wondering if CP was good enough though, admittedly, his best days may well be behind him.
Cynicism or not, I'd love it if you're proved right AA regarding Burton Port. Personally, I'm not convinced that wasn't genuinely a struggle on Friday (I could easily have been duped though). On the plus side, 51L last of 9 was his closest finish of 3 runs this season (!) and now dropped another 5lbs to OR145, low enough even for Jonjo's purposes. He's such a likeable, gutsy little horse and has strong GN stats, chiefly born of consistency, notwithstanding his current form. The drop in weight (now 21lbs lower than when highly competitive at Grade 1 less than 2 years ago) means that, from my model's perspective, it wouldn't take much to give him a MAJOR chance next April. He simply has to show a glimpse of his old ability in decent company over 3m+ after the weights are published, fortunately when Jonjo's shenanigans no longer apply. A good run (doesn't have to win) in one of the Festival 3m handicaps would be perfect and I very much hope that's the Jonjo gameplan. If he can't do that off his new mark then I hope a suitable retirement career beckons.
PS I wouldn't be so pessimistic on Cappa Bleu just yet, with or without your favourite jock ;o) No doubt Williams would love to engineer a drop in his mark if possible, though his successive GN places won't make that easy for the big one. From a stats perspective, as last year, he does need another decent run before April (if he's up to it). I still think he was only beaten last GN by a horse that (albeit with the benefit of hindsight) was patently mis-handicapped for the conditions of the race - the one race where Smith can use his discretion! Time to retire Phil....or hire yourself a reliable GN stat model ;o) ......hang on, I missed him aswell !!!
Hi Peanuts I should have made clear that I was not thinking of the GN for Chicago Grey. I thought he didn't do too badly under top weight and he was finishing going to the last. when he jumped into the back of Keep on track . I think he could be nicely handicapped for the XC at the Festival. Going back to Silver Birch, he had previously been ante post favourite for the GN before his serious injury.
Hi Peanuts I should have made clear that I was not thinking of the GN for Chicago Grey. I thought he didn't do too badly under top weight and he was finishing going to the last. when he jumped into the back of Keep on track . I think he could be nicely handicapped for the XC at the Festival. Going back to Silver Birch, he had previously been ante post favourite for the GN before his serious injury.
Sorry Chief, I should have realised. You could well be right, though I don't have a feel for the likely oppo come March tbh but he obviously has stamina and ability. He ran well in his XC debut but, as usual for him, he would have done even better but for nearly tipping up. As a betting proposition, for me, he's such an unreliable conveyance that there would need to be some serious e/w value.
off to Ascot tomorrow for the Dad's annual lash up (from sons football team) I absolutely love national hunt racing.The great thing about ascot on a friday is you get to use the outstanding facilities without all the hustle and bustle of the royal meeting.
Not wanting to detract from our GN, but I've been told to look at panther claw ew in the welsh GN. Only trouble is it is also entered the paddy power chase in Ireland the day before. Any views PM?
Looks like he's staying at home PBS - taken out of the WN this morning. Tidal Bay still top weight and seems like a definite runner (if the race goes ahead!) so several will be running from out of the handicap. Makes the stat-analysis tricky with only 1 other above the key 11.00 threshold and another 1 above the 10.08 threshold. The Welsh Nat is a notoriously tough race for top-weights, especially if no previous success in the race. He is the highest rated runner in the WN since 8y-o Halcon Genelardais [OR164] carried 11.12 to be 3rd 7L in 2008 but he was a former winner (2006) and runner-up (2007, also as top-weight). In any event, while I love the old boy, it's TB's age (12) that is the real stat-killer. No horse older than 10 has won it for at least the last 33 renewals and no 12 year-old has made the frame or finished within 10L of the winner for at least the last 16 WNs. 10 year-olds and older accounted for 26% of runners from 1997 to 2013 but filled only 12% (7 of 60) of the paying places and none carried more than 10.11 to do so..............he'll probably romp home ;o)
“We learn wisdom from failure much more than from success. We often discover what will do, by finding out what will not do...........” (Samuel Smiles)....... That has certainly been true of the evolution of my GN model over the past 8 years and I trust that it will prove likewise for the more primitive system employed to such dismal effect for the Welsh National last Saturday, now that I've completed a forensic examination of the wreckage. Time will tell. The more immediate objective is to arrange for Vic and Paddy to repay the funds temporarily loaned to them......with interest! So.....to the Main Event. Entries close at the end of January but Nicholls has already announced that he will throw 13 year-old Tidal Bay's hat into the ring after his gallant close 3rd in the WN. Indeed, he will send him straight to Aintree. His Official Rating has been raised 5lbs after Chepstow to 168 and he'll likely be the top-rated GN entry (again) after Long Run was dropped to OR163, following his latest disappointment. Last year, when compressing the GN handicap, Phil Smith dropped Tidal Bay from 171 to 162 so you'd have to suppose that he will give him a GN mark of 160~162 this time. As top-weight, he would carry 11.10. Without running, 7y-o Triolo d'Alene's OR has gone up another 2lbs to 158. If Smith leaves him on that for the GN (his Topham win presumably means he will), he'll carry 11.06~11.08. The bad news for both TdA and TB is that, aside from the incomparable Red Rum, no GN winner has carried more than 11.07 since Freebooter won with 11.11 in 1950. TdA remains market fav with the bookies (20/1) and on Betfair (22) but, for the reasons mentioned in earlier posts, there's not a chance of him making my betting slip. If it's an age since a 7y-o won the GN (74 years to be precise) it's even longer since a 13y-o obliged (91 years). Yet, though at first glance it's a doubly impossible task for Tidal Bay, taking account of the stats for both GN winners and placed horses, his own profile (particularly his close 3rd at Chepstow with 11.12) gives him a serious chance IF (and ONLY IF) he were to get his preferred Soft ground. Some stats to ponder: 1. It may be counter-intuitive but top-weights have been closer to winning the GN on soft~heavy than on quick ground (it's particularly hard to carry a big weight at a fast pace over a marathon trip). The 3 nearest finishes by t/ws in the last 25 GNs were: • Hedgehunter 2nd (6L) on SOFT in 2006 with 11.12 • The Thinker 3rd (7.5L) on HEAVY in 1989 with 11.10 • Suny Bay 2nd (11L) on HEAVY in 1998 with 12.00 2. The sample of 13y-o GN runners in the past 25 years is too small to draw any hard conclusions from (though Hello Bud finished closer to the winner as a 14 y-o in 2012 than he did when 5th in 2010). However: • 12 of the 24 horses finishing in the first 6 in the last 4 GNs were 11 or 12y-o • TB has run in 25 chases - Montys Pass had run in 36 when he won the 2003 GN and Amberleigh House had run in 37 when he won in 2004. Keep an eye on the weather forecasts!
The current posts are just pointers, not least intended to explain why the market is mis-pricing the likes of Triolo d'Alene. For my purposes, there are too many variables to take prices now, other than 100/1+ for runners (e.g. Chance Du Roy, now 250 on Betfair) that may or may not make my model's final selections but have a credible chance and, at that sort of price, I wouldn't mind having in my final portfolio regardless. But (maybe a reason for Betfair price) CdR may not even run and, if he does, Hobbs may repeat his frequent mistake of giving his GN runner an extended break rather than a prep, which could impair his stats from my model's perspectives. Following a stat-model is all well and good if it improves your percentages of selecting the right horses to back but runners' stats are evolving all the time. Some strong candidates don't emerge until after their prep (e.g. Sunnyhillboy in 2012), others are obvious candidates early (have robust stats) but don't make the day (e.g. Burton Port in 2012 because of connections' choice or Tidal Bay last year because of injury). Entries not even made until end Jan and then there's the variable of the handicapper's compression of the GN handicap and even when you think you've the got the weights factored in, then there's the possibility, realised last year, of withdrawals causing a significant hike in those weights before the race (removing the chances for many last year). That's before you get to preferences of some runners for certain ground, crucial to Tidal Bay. As things stand, I would be surprised if Monbeg Dude doesn't make my model's final selections as a winning candidate on any ground easier than Good (which ought to be a near-certainty if Aintree adhere to their safety objectives). If I had had a brain like Abs I should have foreseen that and backed him when he was nearer 40/1 than his current 25/1. If I had him at 40's I'd be ecstatic to have taken the punt but at 25/1, while he'll probably get shorter, I'd rather wait to make sure he does line up on the day at a winnable weight and back him when 6 places are available e/w. Importantly, prices for GN winners haven't always shortened after the weights are announced. Don't Push It was offered at c. 90 on Betfair less than a fortnight before the race (I thought I'd been smart getting on at 40/1 after the weights !) though he went off 10/1 jt fav after AP chose him over Cant Buy Time. If it's a Mon Mome or Aurora's Encore National, the price of the winner may be never longer than on the day of the race. Indeed, Aurora's Encore wasn't even sure of a run until comparatively late on. Hopefully the model will identify that long shot when all the variables have played out. I'll be sifting through the entries to try to spot whether there could be a diamond in the rough.
As you have so clearly stated PM, my cynicism with regards to Jonjo's horses is limitless. For that reason I wouldn't give up on Burton Port. He was moved by Trevor Hemmings from Nicky Henderson and now occupies Albertas Run's old box and that in itself is a hint that he felt Jonjo was capable of doing something Henderson wouldn'tcouldn't. BP's dropping mark will help the cause!
So I too have had an interest in BP. And needless to say I'm still following that other one off the cliff - rather in the hope that Moloney rides it differently or, even better, he is "jocked off". Frankly I'd rather not die wondering if CP was good enough though, admittedly, his best days may well be behind him.
Sadly injury will prevent Cappa Bleu from making the line up this time - may or may not run again according to Williams this pm. I guess you'll have mixed feelings AA!..............assuming you hadn't backed him yet!
As you have so clearly stated PM, my cynicism with regards to Jonjo's horses is limitless. For that reason I wouldn't give up on Burton Port. He was moved by Trevor Hemmings from Nicky Henderson and now occupies Albertas Run's old box and that in itself is a hint that he felt Jonjo was capable of doing something Henderson wouldn'tcouldn't. BP's dropping mark will help the cause!
So I too have had an interest in BP. And needless to say I'm still following that other one off the cliff - rather in the hope that Moloney rides it differently or, even better, he is "jocked off". Frankly I'd rather not die wondering if CP was good enough though, admittedly, his best days may well be behind him.
Sadly injury will prevent Cappa Bleu from making the line up this time - may or may not run again according to Williams this pm. I guess you'll have mixed feelings AA!..............assuming you hadn't backed him yet!
I had PM but only to small stakes. And at least it will save me the agony of watching Moloney coming home in his own time!
Entries due to be announced today but sad news this morning is that last year's winner Aurora's Encore was injured (a fracture) during the Great Yorkshire Chase at Donny on Saturday and will not race again. Hopefully will recover to enjoy his retirement. Still a fact that no GN winner since Bindaree (2002) has won another race.
That's a very sobering fact PM and is probably more down to the fact that the GN takes so much out of a horse rather than it being handicapped out of it.
That's a very sobering fact PM and is probably more down to the fact that the GN takes so much out of a horse rather than it being handicapped out of it.
Bit of everything I think AA. Certainly the race does exact a significant toll which, not least, typically demands a quietish subsequent season and when you consider the typical age of a GN winner (Bindaree was the last 8 y-o winner, since when 8 of the 11 winners have been 10+) I guess they have relatively little time to score again, particularly since Phil Smith is never lenient. Nonetheless, other than Neptune Collonges (retired immediately) Auroras Encore is the only GN winner since Red Marauder (2001) not to make a return trip to Aintree. Of the 10 since Red Marauder that did, 7 made the first 6 home. 2 former GN winners since Bindaree (who won the Welsh National after his GN win) made the front 3 in a Gold Cup and only 1 (other than Auroras Encore) never made the frame again (incl. 6th in the GN as a place) and that was Amberleigh House who was 12 when he won it. I know what you mean AA but I think the fact that so many GN winners have run so creditably in the race again indicates that, despite the extreme exertions of the race, they are typically very much up for it again.
Comments
Cheers AbS .. connections must have made their choice after Scudamore's interview .. CH4 also interviewed Zara Phillips who has given Monbeg some schooling in show jumping techniques in how to approach an obstacle .. she herself has a big obstacle .. she is due to give birth anytime soon .. Mike Tindall, the nervous daddy and part owner of Monbeg was also interviewed
Still, you never know until the day. The occasion as much as the fences can frazzle even experienced horses, though he seems a tough character.
Tom Scu was pretty emotional after crossing the line. The Dude's obviously very special to the yard, understandably so.
Ground-wise he clearly doesn't need it testing to be competitive as was thought before and after Chepstow (travelled really well today, as has been said) and for safety reasons one would hope that Aintree ensure, as they did last year, that the going is no quicker than Gd(GS). Having swerved Chepstow this time with the intention of lining up at Aintree, it would be very disappointing (and worrying) if the trainer thought they hadn't produced that sort of ground.
In the meantime......the handicapper's got to have his say yet of course. He'll surely get a rise that will guarantee a run but if they didn't want to screw up his GN chances by finishing in the front 2 in the Welsh National, hopefully they haven't done so today (I doubt it but the handicapper will give his view next week). Always a mystery when to back Jonjo's runners (as Addick Addict frequently cautions). Obviously a nice win today but Sunnyhillboy's chances are well and truly in the hands of the handicapper and we'll have to wait until February for that. Gave him no chance whatsoever last year.
Very sad to see Burton Port labouring (had a nadge on him e/w today myself). Seemed willing enough, just not able sadly.
From the perspective of the model, given the unique characteristics of the GN, running off a significant career high Official Rating is of no relevance. It crucially depends on the absolute weight a runner has to carry.
At first glance, he should be fine:
• Using current ORs, if Long Run (OR168) were the highest-rated entry and, under GN handicap compression, were dropped 6~9lbs to 159~162 (by comparison, Tidal Bay was dropped 9lbs from 171 to 162 last year), that would put Triolo d'Alene on 11.04~11.07 (assuming, in light of his Topham win, no compression adjustment) and Monbeg Dude on 10.08~10.11 in the GN. FYI, Chance Du Roy would carry 10.05~10.08.
• This range would be consistent with the 5 GNs since 2009 (when top-weight was lowered from 11.12 to 11.10), in which runners rated 146 carried 10.09~10.12.
So far so good but we need to be a little careful, especially as regards the chances of all those in the OR146~151 range, about the possibility of a significant hike in the weights caused by defections; as occurred last year, to the material cost of several runners, including Teaforthree (see GN Analysis Part 2 on last page of Official 2013 Grand National Thread if this is of interest).
If Long Run were not to run in the GN, for whatever reason, there is currently only Tidal Bay (OR163) between Long Run and Triolo d'Alene (156) in the present ratings that are serious GN entry candidates among UK-based horses. Of course, the handicapper may rate one or more of the Irish raiders above 156 but Irish trainers won’t necessarily send their runners over if they’ve been allotted what they regard as an unwinnable weight and/or unfair mark.
Teaforthree (OR153) might ascend into the space if he were to win the Welsh National, though WN trends suggest he won't, and Tidal Bay is far from a definite GN runner (ground and age potentially deterring connections).
There could be an unexpected higher-rated entry but, absent Long Run, it's not at all inconceivable that TdA would end up as prospective GN top-weight (OR156 was GN top-weight in 2008). If so, the Dude would carry at least 11.00, more if TdA had benefitted at all from compression or if TdA's connections didn't want the 7y-o to run as GN top-weight and decided to wait for another year.
Monbeg Dude’s stats are currently strong enough to handle being elevated slightly above the 11.01 threshold on his favoured soft going but it would be touch and go on better ground and, on any going, the quality of his prep would become more important from a stats perspective.
Entries close 28 Jan, weights published 13 Feb.
Only trouble is it is also entered the paddy power chase in Ireland the day before.
Any views PM?
Looked very promising to me.
wouldn'tcouldn't. BP's dropping mark will help the cause!So I too have had an interest in BP. And needless to say I'm still following that other one off the cliff - rather in the hope that Moloney rides it differently or, even better, he is "jocked off". Frankly I'd rather not die wondering if CP was good enough though, admittedly, his best days may well be behind him.
I think there are useful pointers to the GN to be found occasionally in XC form but only in context also of "conventional course" form.
People say that the unusual fences are good training for the GN and that's valid but it's only a small part of the GN equation.
They often cite the instance of Silver Birch who ran well in the Festival XC before winning the 2007 GN, but he was already a Welsh National and Becher Chase winner. As a GN pointer, the XC close 2nd was important for demonstrating his well-being rather than his aptitude for the GN - that was clear already.
Dear old Spot Thedifference (a XC legend) came a staying-on (never nearer than at the finish) 35L 5th in the 2004 GN but was fairly undistinguished in 2 other GNs and that tells it all, I think.
The main problem is it's one thing to show stamina and proficiency over XC courses run at XC pace but that pace is significantly slower than the pace of a typical GN on comparable ground.
Let's take the example of another XC star, Balthazar King. He won the Festival XC in 2012 on Good to Firm (by all accounts, more like Firm bordering Hard in parts). He did so in a record time for the race, 12.3 seconds faster than standard for the XC course. That equated to 15.22 seconds per furlong over 31 furlongs. He is a good ground horse and so one might excuse his failure in the slightly easier ground 2013 GN (though it's not irrelevant that he didn't get home having set the pace on ground that was hardly testing). In order for him to win a GN on Good to Firm going, on past timings over the last 25 years, he would have to be able to go at 15 seconds per furlong over 4.5 furlongs further than the Festival XC. 0.22 secs per furlong may not sound much but it equates to almost 8 secs over 4.5 miles and that equates to about 48 lengths behind at the post.
You can pick holes in that calculation because you are comparing apples and oranges with the GN and XC (the GN half a mile further, the XC more twisty and undulating) but that is the point - they are not so similar a test in complete terms in fact.
I was very interested for the 2012 GN in a budding XC star, Scotsirish (went off fav in the Festival XC that Balthazar King won but very sadly broke a leg) but that was because he had been a near-top class 2-2.5 miler on conventional courses (therefore had pace to travel in a GN), had run well over the GN fences in two fast-pace 22f Tophams (carrying big weights) and the combination of decent form in big 3m handicaps on conventional courses in testing conditions and impressive XC form indicated that, at least on his good ground, he might just be able to stay the marathon trip - certainly the model thought so and his 200/1 Betfair price was too appealing to resist - alas he never had the opportunity.....I still think he'd have been in the money, but then I would say that wouldn't I ? ;o)
In conclusion, the XC form can be a very useful component of a GN winning or strong-run profile but, absent appropriate form over conventional courses, in itself is of limited value.
Sire Collonges was a worthy winner on Friday (in a typically moderate pace XC) and could become a regular winner, maybe a star, over XC but as yet he doesn't tick any boxes over conventional courses. He may do in due course but currently wouldn't make any appeal as regards a GN IMO.
Personally, I'm not convinced that wasn't genuinely a struggle on Friday (I could easily have been duped though). On the plus side, 51L last of 9 was his closest finish of 3 runs this season (!) and now dropped another 5lbs to OR145, low enough even for Jonjo's purposes.
He's such a likeable, gutsy little horse and has strong GN stats, chiefly born of consistency, notwithstanding his current form. The drop in weight (now 21lbs lower than when highly competitive at Grade 1 less than 2 years ago) means that, from my model's perspective, it wouldn't take much to give him a MAJOR chance next April. He simply has to show a glimpse of his old ability in decent company over 3m+ after the weights are published, fortunately when Jonjo's shenanigans no longer apply. A good run (doesn't have to win) in one of the Festival 3m handicaps would be perfect and I very much hope that's the Jonjo gameplan. If he can't do that off his new mark then I hope a suitable retirement career beckons.
PS I wouldn't be so pessimistic on Cappa Bleu just yet, with or without your favourite jock ;o)
No doubt Williams would love to engineer a drop in his mark if possible, though his successive GN places won't make that easy for the big one.
From a stats perspective, as last year, he does need another decent run before April (if he's up to it). I still think he was only beaten last GN by a horse that (albeit with the benefit of hindsight) was patently mis-handicapped for the conditions of the race - the one race where Smith can use his discretion!
Time to retire Phil....or hire yourself a reliable GN stat model ;o) ......hang on, I missed him aswell !!!
I should have made clear that I was not thinking of the GN for Chicago Grey.
I thought he didn't do too badly under top weight and he was finishing going to the last. when he jumped into the back of Keep on track . I think he could be nicely handicapped for the XC at the Festival.
Going back to Silver Birch, he had previously been ante post favourite for the GN before his serious injury.
Tidal Bay still top weight and seems like a definite runner (if the race goes ahead!) so several will be running from out of the handicap. Makes the stat-analysis tricky with only 1 other above the key 11.00 threshold and another 1 above the 10.08 threshold.
The Welsh Nat is a notoriously tough race for top-weights, especially if no previous success in the race.
He is the highest rated runner in the WN since 8y-o Halcon Genelardais [OR164] carried 11.12 to be 3rd 7L in 2008 but he was a former winner (2006) and runner-up (2007, also as top-weight).
In any event, while I love the old boy, it's TB's age (12) that is the real stat-killer.
No horse older than 10 has won it for at least the last 33 renewals and no 12 year-old has made the frame or finished within 10L of the winner for at least the last 16 WNs.
10 year-olds and older accounted for 26% of runners from 1997 to 2013 but filled only 12% (7 of 60) of the paying places and none carried more than 10.11 to do so..............he'll probably romp home ;o)
That has certainly been true of the evolution of my GN model over the past 8 years and I trust that it will prove likewise for the more primitive system employed to such dismal effect for the Welsh National last Saturday, now that I've completed a forensic examination of the wreckage. Time will tell.
The more immediate objective is to arrange for Vic and Paddy to repay the funds temporarily loaned to them......with interest!
So.....to the Main Event.
Entries close at the end of January but Nicholls has already announced that he will throw 13 year-old Tidal Bay's hat into the ring after his gallant close 3rd in the WN. Indeed, he will send him straight to Aintree.
His Official Rating has been raised 5lbs after Chepstow to 168 and he'll likely be the top-rated GN entry (again) after Long Run was dropped to OR163, following his latest disappointment.
Last year, when compressing the GN handicap, Phil Smith dropped Tidal Bay from 171 to 162 so you'd have to suppose that he will give him a GN mark of 160~162 this time. As top-weight, he would carry 11.10.
Without running, 7y-o Triolo d'Alene's OR has gone up another 2lbs to 158. If Smith leaves him on that for the GN (his Topham win presumably means he will), he'll carry 11.06~11.08.
The bad news for both TdA and TB is that, aside from the incomparable Red Rum, no GN winner has carried more than 11.07 since Freebooter won with 11.11 in 1950.
TdA remains market fav with the bookies (20/1) and on Betfair (22) but, for the reasons mentioned in earlier posts, there's not a chance of him making my betting slip.
If it's an age since a 7y-o won the GN (74 years to be precise) it's even longer since a 13y-o obliged (91 years).
Yet, though at first glance it's a doubly impossible task for Tidal Bay, taking account of the stats for both GN winners and placed horses, his own profile (particularly his close 3rd at Chepstow with 11.12) gives him a serious chance IF (and ONLY IF) he were to get his preferred Soft ground.
Some stats to ponder:
1. It may be counter-intuitive but top-weights have been closer to winning the GN on soft~heavy than on quick ground (it's particularly hard to carry a big weight at a fast pace over a marathon trip). The 3 nearest finishes by t/ws in the last 25 GNs were:
• Hedgehunter 2nd (6L) on SOFT in 2006 with 11.12
• The Thinker 3rd (7.5L) on HEAVY in 1989 with 11.10
• Suny Bay 2nd (11L) on HEAVY in 1998 with 12.00
2. The sample of 13y-o GN runners in the past 25 years is too small to draw any hard conclusions from (though Hello Bud finished closer to the winner as a 14 y-o in 2012 than he did when 5th in 2010). However:
• 12 of the 24 horses finishing in the first 6 in the last 4 GNs were 11 or 12y-o
• TB has run in 25 chases - Montys Pass had run in 36 when he won the 2003 GN and Amberleigh House had run in 37 when he won in 2004.
Keep an eye on the weather forecasts!
2 chasers to keep an eye on from my recent successes.
Mendip Express and Double Ross.
Happy new year to you and yours. ;-)
Sitting on my 34-1 ew on the Dude.
Mendip Express was amazing at Cheltenham wasn't he?
Dude looking just dandy for Aintree.
For my purposes, there are too many variables to take prices now, other than 100/1+ for runners (e.g. Chance Du Roy, now 250 on Betfair) that may or may not make my model's final selections but have a credible chance and, at that sort of price, I wouldn't mind having in my final portfolio regardless. But (maybe a reason for Betfair price) CdR may not even run and, if he does, Hobbs may repeat his frequent mistake of giving his GN runner an extended break rather than a prep, which could impair his stats from my model's perspectives.
Following a stat-model is all well and good if it improves your percentages of selecting the right horses to back but runners' stats are evolving all the time. Some strong candidates don't emerge until after their prep (e.g. Sunnyhillboy in 2012), others are obvious candidates early (have robust stats) but don't make the day (e.g. Burton Port in 2012 because of connections' choice or Tidal Bay last year because of injury).
Entries not even made until end Jan and then there's the variable of the handicapper's compression of the GN handicap and even when you think you've the got the weights factored in, then there's the possibility, realised last year, of withdrawals causing a significant hike in those weights before the race (removing the chances for many last year).
That's before you get to preferences of some runners for certain ground, crucial to Tidal Bay.
As things stand, I would be surprised if Monbeg Dude doesn't make my model's final selections as a winning candidate on any ground easier than Good (which ought to be a near-certainty if Aintree adhere to their safety objectives). If I had had a brain like Abs I should have foreseen that and backed him when he was nearer 40/1 than his current 25/1. If I had him at 40's I'd be ecstatic to have taken the punt but at 25/1, while he'll probably get shorter, I'd rather wait to make sure he does line up on the day at a winnable weight and back him when 6 places are available e/w.
Importantly, prices for GN winners haven't always shortened after the weights are announced. Don't Push It was offered at c. 90 on Betfair less than a fortnight before the race (I thought I'd been smart getting on at 40/1 after the weights !) though he went off 10/1 jt fav after AP chose him over Cant Buy Time. If it's a Mon Mome or Aurora's Encore National, the price of the winner may be never longer than on the day of the race. Indeed, Aurora's Encore wasn't even sure of a run until comparatively late on. Hopefully the model will identify that long shot when all the variables have played out. I'll be sifting through the entries to try to spot whether there could be a diamond in the rough.
Excellent win today though.
Still a fact that no GN winner since Bindaree (2002) has won another race.
Certainly the race does exact a significant toll which, not least, typically demands a quietish subsequent season and when you consider the typical age of a GN winner (Bindaree was the last 8 y-o winner, since when 8 of the 11 winners have been 10+) I guess they have relatively little time to score again, particularly since Phil Smith is never lenient.
Nonetheless, other than Neptune Collonges (retired immediately) Auroras Encore is the only GN winner since Red Marauder (2001) not to make a return trip to Aintree. Of the 10 since Red Marauder that did, 7 made the first 6 home.
2 former GN winners since Bindaree (who won the Welsh National after his GN win) made the front 3 in a Gold Cup and only 1 (other than Auroras Encore) never made the frame again (incl. 6th in the GN as a place) and that was Amberleigh House who was 12 when he won it.
I know what you mean AA but I think the fact that so many GN winners have run so creditably in the race again indicates that, despite the extreme exertions of the race, they are typically very much up for it again.