Unfortunately you can't now NSS. It was only 50/1 with Ladbrokes and I suspect they cut it even before the paper went to print!
Now had you followed this poster's hint on Tuesday re the horse's wind op you would have been able to avail yourself of that price. Or at even bigger prices from my comment back in December:
"As you have so clearly stated PM, my cynicism with regards to Jonjo's horses is limitless. For that reason I wouldn't give up on Burton Port. He was moved by Trevor Hemmings from Nicky Henderson and now occupies Albertas Run's old box and that in itself is a hint that he felt Jonjo was capable of doing something Henderson wouldn'tcouldn't. BP's dropping mark will help the cause!"
But with my record in the GN you are far better following PM ;-)
We should find out more tomorrow when BP runs in the 3.25 Donny.
The moment of truth. A competitive field - no stroll in the park.
Shakalakaboomboom goes in a hurdle later on the card.........big day for both of them
Maybe worth considering the final preps of the winner and some of the placed horses in last year's GN, Lincs.
Aurora's Encore (won) - 5th 53L (didn't make the frame in 7 runs in the season) T43 (3rd) - 10th 43L Oscar Time (4th) - 17th of 17 101L (didn't make the frame in 4 runs in the season) Swing Bill (6th) - 16th 58L
I don't know if CdR will win the GN or run out of gas 2 out or fall at the first but I do know that 8L 4th on Saturday was a perfectly acceptable prep from a stats-perspective and that it is a small part of a composite stat-profile that is comparable to horses that, on GS or better, have made the frame in previous GNs.
PS TBH Lincs, if it's commonly held that his Saturday run was very disappointing, I'm delighted because if and when he becomes a final selection and Vic is offering the 6th place, he should still be at a nice price. Swing Bill was still drifting on the morning of the GN.
great analysis & shrewd thinking Lord Peanuts .. you cunning old fox you
Not a lot to get excited about at Donny but IMO nothing to get too despondent about either for followers of Burton Port and Shakalakaboomboom, assuming that they're both sound and connections remain positive (presumably we'll find out shortly). Dave Orton of the Racing Post comments that Burton Port's "decline continues". IMO, journos and punters tend to over-react to post-weights superficial form. That's what makes the stat-model useful (and hopefully profit-making) because, as the post above explains (and it could be written about a host of horses placed in the GN in recent years), post-weights (even season's) form has very little relevance stat-wise to the GN chances (at least of finishing in the money) of many. Of course, when horses are returning from injury, it is important to see some evidence that they remain competitive and this applies to both BP and Shaka. Certainly both have more to do but, assuming they are both physically OK, it's not the end of the GN road for either just yet. Burton Port was off the bridle a long way out (again) but, unlike in his previous 4 runs this season, he kept on under urgings from new pilot Davy Russell and came home an OK 12.5L 8th in a competitive veterans 3m chase (maybe slightly flattered by the winner easing down at the line). Still well short of his former ability of course but, presumably with another run planned before 5 April, still not a no-hoper for the GN from a stats-perspective. Such is his drop in mark that every race he now runs has the potential to produce a significant "binary" outcome as regards his GN stat-profile that, on the upside, could jet-propel him into place potential. Needs to take a much bigger step forwards next time though. Shakalakboomboom pulled up some way out in a 3m hurdle. Certainly a disappointment not to complete but he was never going to be fully race-fit on his first spin over obstacles since the 2012 GN and he's never had great hurdles' form. Geraghty took him wide no doubt to avoid trouble but there was a small scrimmage during which he lost his footing going away from the stands, up to which point he'd seemed to be travelling well enough. Assuming he's OK and that Henderson considers he's not running out of time, he'll surely have another prep and a chance to dot his "i's", stat-wise.
As for the winner of the vets chase, Tranquil Sea - a fine 2.5 miler, with 2 creditable runs over the GN fences with big weights, would be interesting (even as a 12 y-o), especially if he were to run well in the 3.25m Kim Muir at The Festival (which the trainer says is a tempting option). Main problem is that he's #86 (at best) in the weights - in the last 4 GNs, the lowest-ranked [at weights announcement] to get a run ranged from 69 to 78.
I was sayin to myself down the back straight he was finished as a racehorse, but impressed how he picked up and ran on. However after watching a re run , they all seemed to finish in a heap about eight of them.AA had got my hopes up with his news of the wind operation so I backed him today.
A impressive winner of the bumper at Punchestown called What Lies Ahead, keep on the right side of this goin forward (obviously not talkin about the National)
I was sayin to myself down the back straight he was finished as a racehorse, but impressed how he picked up and ran on. However after watching a re run , they all seemed to finish in a heap about eight of them.AA had got my hopes up with his news of the wind operation so I backed him today.
A impressive winner of the bumper at Punchestown called What Lies Ahead, keep on the right side of this goin forward (obviously not talkin about the National)
He's got to show a lot more for sure and is fast running out of chances but that was a decent veterans chase, ran in a fractionally faster time than the high quality novice chase earlier on the card. Take the point about so many finishing in a heap but maybe even Phil Smith has managed to weight most of these old boys about right by now )
Away from the centre of the sporting universe that was SE7 yesterday, it was the Irish that were the focus of attention………………and not just at Twickenham.
The Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase was run over 25f at Fairyhouse, a race which often gives clues as to which Irish horses may run well in the subsequent GN. Inaugurated in 2003 in honour of the first Irish-trained winner of the GN for 24 years; a win, in 1999, that ushered in not only a golden run of 7 Irish wins in 9 GNs but also, since he’d won from a stone out of the handicap, the practice of the handicapper using his discretion to “compress” the GN weights – a policy that, arguably, has helped to stymie the winning chances of many Irish runners since 2007. The Bobbyjo Chase is fittingly named because, despite being typically contested by a small field, going right-handed and on ground that is rarely replicated at Aintree, it has the closest correlation with GN success of any same-season chase in Ireland. Since 2005, when Willie Mullins' Hedgehunter did the BJ and GN double, 7 horses making the frame or finishing <5L of the winner in the BJ have made the first 6 home in the subsequent GN.
So, when Willie Mullins’ ON HIS OWN (dual Thyestes Chase winner) took the race impressively yesterday, leading from flag to post, staying on and going away at the end (though he was receiving 5lbs+ from 5 of his 6 rivals), some bookies cut him to as short as 14/1 for the GN. With his excellent season’s form and the BJ association with the GN, he’s got to have a great chance on 5 April doesn’t he?
Well the first problem is that it was such an impressive win that Willie Mullins may give him a target other than Aintree: “We clearly have a lot of thinking to do about Aintree. There is a chance we could step him up in grade for the Punchestown Gold Cup and I would say we´re entitled to consider it after a performance like that.” Looking at other options is a good idea, according to my model, which rates OHO as highly unlikely to be in the shake-up should he run at Aintree. Why?
• He has fallen in both GN attempts to date – first time in 2012 when travelling well (with 10.11) at 2nd Bechers and last year (with 11.00) at the 25th but he was weakening badly at the time in mid div. His Official Rating when weighted for both races was 148.
He completed (18.5L 6th) in the Becher Chase on Soft in December, carrying 11.01 (OR144) seeing out the 26f trip OK but he was never put in the race and it appeared to be an attempt to give him confidence over the GN fences without attracting the attention of the handicapper.
• If so, it succeeded only in part because OHO’s mark for the 2014 GN is OR154 – 10lbs higher than for his Becher outing and 6lbs higher than when running out of gas in the last GN. Combined with the weights’ compression (most of the runners, OHO included, will carry 7lbs more than they would in any other chase with Tidal Bay at the head of the weights), that mark means that OHO will carry 11.03 – 3lbs+ more than he’s carried in his previous GNs and probably about 10lbs more than his career stats support. Of the 11 GN winners since 1988 that carried more than 10.07 (excl red Marauder), all but 1 had solid form at 29f+. The exception was Ballabriggs (11.00 in 2011) who had won in both attempts at 26f, carrying 11.12 both times, including in a stamina-sapping Kim Muir at the 2010 Festival (he was unraced at further). OHO has never made the frame in 5 attempts over obstacles at 26f+ and has failed to complete in all 3 attempts at 4m+ (twice clearly beaten). Good luck at Punchestown chaps!
Of the other 4 GN entries running in the Bobbyjo, only 2 finished and the handicapper has pretty much scuppered their chances as well: • BUCKERS BRIDGE (in his first attempt under rules at 3m+) was a creditable 17L 3rd but as an 8 year old he doesn’t yet have the profile strength to make a mark at Aintree carrying 10.10.
• LION NA BEARNAI (2012 Irish GN winner) was a weakening and remote 4th and while his 12 years of age isn’t necessarily a barrier, he is due to carry a stone more than when winning the Irish GN - too much given his moderate form at 3m+ since that Fairyhouse win.
• Pulled up were both QUITO DE LA ROQUE, a pale shadow of his former self, and ROI DU MEE who (surprise, surprise) has far too much weight to carry at Aintree with 11.06, despite some fine performances at 3m in the last 12 months.
So, this year looks like being a rare blank one for the association between Bobbyjo Chase and GN.
Indeed, it may be that a stronger clue came in a humble 22f hunter chase over an hour later on the card, when 11 year-old SEABASS returned to the track after a 258 day absence (following a setback in December) and, though a little ring-rusty, came home a 1.25L 2nd. He needs a further prep(s) for fitness and stats but, allotted 11.02 for Aintree, if he comes through them satisfactorily, with a 5L 3rd in 2012 and a completion under an impossible weight last year for his GN form, he would have minor place potential (though no better), providing the ground is GS or better at Aintree.
Though none of the Irish runners yesterday have the stats to win the 2014 GN, there are a couple of others flying the Tricolour flashing away on the radar screen, one particularly brightly. More anon.
Meanwhile, back home, WYCK HILL won the 33f Eider Chase most impressively and was cut to 25/1 for the GN. However, at #93 (at best) in the weights he stands virtually no chance of lining up on 5 April.
Over at Kempton in the Grade 3 BetBright Chase (aka the Racing Post Chase to old timers) MIDNIGHT APPEAL, who clearly likes the course, came a 2.5L 4th. His Strike Rate (wins and near-misses) at 3m+ is an impressive 5/6 but 3 of these have come at Kempton and he has a serious negative in terms of a poor run over the GN fences in the Grand Sefton last December (blundered many times and didn’t appear to enjoy the experience), compounded by a Fall at Cheltenham in his only other chase at a left-handed, stiff-jumping track. He can put part of that right if putting in a strong performance in the 3m handicap chase at The Festival and give himself place potential on decent ground off just 10.05 for the GN (1 poor effort over the fences over 22f being potentially excusable) but he does appear to have jumping issues. In the same race, 12 year-old PLANET OF SOUND ran well enough (17.5L 7th, co-incidentally the same margin of defeat when he was 3rd in the same race as his GN prep in 2012) but failed to improve his GN stat-profile. A former Punchestown Gold Cup winner and Hennessy close runner-up, like Midnight Appeal he could give himself the stats of a place contender on GS or better at Aintree if putting in a strong run in the 3m handicap chase at The Festival. He blew up 3 out in the 2012 GN and finished a remote 12th, being made far too much use of out in front, but he handled the GN fences well. He would carry 8lbs less (10.11) this time.
41 days to go. A shed load of Cheltenham entries for GN possibles so still lots of moving parts………….TTFN
I see Cheltenham runners as a major negative for the National. The race comes too soon for them to recover. But a horse that was entered at Cheltenham and withdrawn is a plus as it suggests the real target is the National. Monbeg Dude fits that category. I see him as the winner, although i would like to see him have a warm up race first.
I see Cheltenham runners as a major negative for the National. The race comes too soon for them to recover. But a horse that was entered at Cheltenham and withdrawn is a plus as it suggests the real target is the National. Monbeg Dude fits that category. I see him as the winner, although i would like to see him have a warm up race first.
Leading Crabbie’s Grand National fancies Monbeg Dude and Triolo D’Alene are among the 16 entries for Saturday’s William Hill Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster.
And Monbeg Dude’s trainer Michael Scudamore is keen to use the Doncaster feature as a prep race for Aintree.
Last season’s Welsh Grand National winner is a best-priced 20-1 third favourite with most bookmakers for the Aintree marathon on April 5.
Scudamore said: “He’ll get lots of entries on Saturday, but Doncaster is the first choice. He’ll also be in at Kelso and over hurdles at Newbury, but that is very much the back-up plan.
“Unless something strange happens up there with the weather, you’d hope the ground at Doncaster would be fine for him.”
Owned by a syndicate that includes former England rugby union star Mike Tindall, the nine-year-old missed his intended prep run in the Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock earlier this month due to an unsatisfactory scope.
But Scudamore added: “He’s in very good form and we are looking forward to getting him back out again.
“He enjoyed himself in a bit of work on Saturday and everyone was very positive afterwards. He’s in good form, he has scoped well and his blood is fine.”
Nicky Henderson’s Triolo D’Alene, who won the Topham Chase over the National fences before landing the Hennessy Gold Cup back in November, is also a 20-1 chance for the National.
He could, though, run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Other National entries who could line up at Doncaster on Saturday are Alan King’s Godsmejudge, the Paul Nicholls-trained Mon Parrain as well as Court By Surprise, Mart Lane, Alvarado, Night In Milan, Real Milan, Renard, Storm Survivor and Wayward Prince.
I see Cheltenham runners as a major negative for the National. The race comes too soon for them to recover. But a horse that was entered at Cheltenham and withdrawn is a plus as it suggests the real target is the National. Monbeg Dude fits that category. I see him as the winner, although i would like to see him have a warm up race first.
Welcome back Len90,
Monbeg Dude has a great chance, importantly on any ground.
You would think that being well rested would be a necessity for a GN winner so lots of people think that a Festival run isn't a great idea. It no doubt depends on the horse but being fit doesn't necessary mean being rested. Indeed, GN stats suggest that a recent race (whether or not at the Festival) tends to be a help not a hindrance.
Winners of the GN (since 1988) that ran at the preceding Festival:
1988 Rhyme n Reason (Fell at the 19th in the GC) 1990 Mr Frisk (4th in the Kim Muir) 1991 Seagram (won Ritz Club Chase) / 2nd was Garrison Savannah (won the GC) 1994 Miinnehoma (7th in the GC) 1996 Rough Quest (2nd GC a mere 16 days earlier)) / 2nd was Encore Un Peu (2nd Kim Muir) 2002 Bindaree (7th WH National Hunt Chase) / 2nd was Whats Up Boys (5th in GC) 2007 Silver Birch (2nd in the XC) 2010 Don't Push It (PU'd before the last in the Pertemps Final hurdle)
So 8 of the last 24 GNs (excl the Red Marauder GN) were won by horses having raced at the Festival (7 of them between 16 and 25 days earlier - Silver Birch being 32 when there was an extra week's gap). Of the other 16 GNs: a) in 11 of them Festival runners came 2nd or 3rd (or both) and
b) 6 were won by horses that had their last race elsewhere but during or after Festival week.
In summary, last races were: 4 GN winners 16~21 days prior 10 GN winners 22~28 days 7 GN winners 29~35 days (this Saturday coming is 35 days prior) 3 GN winners >35 days (max 56)
It's a big weekend alright. Godmesjudge only has to show he's OK to put his stats in very good shape (but, as an 8y-o, he would need it GS or better at Aintree). More anon.
Most National winners have run within 50 days but my point is i prefer a horse to have the National as his main target and be given a light warm up race rather than be given a strenuous run at Cheltenham. Monbeg Dude is entered in three races on Saturday so he should get a run somewhere.
Most National winners have run within 50 days but my point is i prefer a horse to have the National as his main target and be given a light warm up race rather than be given a strenuous run at Cheltenham. Monbeg Dude is entered in three races on Saturday so he should get a run somewhere.
I understood your point Len but mine is that it depends on the horse. Some horses can take (even thrive on) strenuous work not that long before the big day. It is possible, depending on the recovery needs of the individual horse, to have the National as a target and take in a serious attempt at a big prize 2-4 weeks prior. Did Lord Gyllene have a light warm up over 4.25m with 11.10 around Uttoxeter when 7L 2nd in the Midlands National 23 days before registering the biggest winning margin in any GN since 1988 (at least)? It was hardly a stroll around Prestbury Park when Rough Quest was 2nd to Imperial Call in the GC 16 days before winning the GN. Indeed, he had also won the Racing Post Chase 19 days before that. It depends on the horse but, as you say, all benefit from a prep beforehand, ideally 35 days or less. Fingers crossed the Dude has a nice and safe one.
I had £25 on Monbeg Dude at 25/1 a few weeks ago. The only other horse that got anywhere near him in my ratings was Mr Moonshine. Confidence is high this year.
Following reported to be scratched at yesterday's first forfeit stage:
Rubi Light, Planet Of Sound, White Star Line, Midnight Appeal, Away We Go, Renard, Highland Lodge, Merry King, Ikorodu Road, Liberty Counsel, Quel Esprit, Up The Beat, Rockyaboya, Orpheus Valley, Ringa Bay.
100 stand their ground.
The last one (at this stage) to get a run on the Big Day ranged from #57~68 in last 4 GNs (but 3 of them were #67~68).
EDIT. Sorry that was a load of bollocks what was up here just now. Back in a jif.
FURTHER EDIT: OK abacus replaced. Here's where they currently stand after the 1st forfeit:
Only 2 in the original top 40 came out and so #40 is still 10.08 but all those allotted 10.08+ are now guaranteed a run.
#57 = the lowest-rated of those allotted 10.04: Mart Lane, Same Difference, The Package, Well Refreshed #68 = the 2nd of the 3 allotted 10.01: Goonyella, Goulanes and Swing Bill
Chance Du Roy (having been dropped 1lb since the weights were framed) is currently #48 and should comfortably get in Shakalakaboomboom is #58~61 depending on re-ratings - would be unlucky not to make the cut Tranquil Sea is #74 (having been put up 9lbs after his Donny win) - still unlikely to get a run Wyck Hill is #80 (having gone up 8lbs after his Eider win) - still very unlikely to do so
That's a very interesting race the Grimthorpe, with Godsmejudge also running, as well as several other GN entries Burton Port & Pete The Feat (not without a chance if a soft ground GN) go in the vets chase at Newbury at 2.40. Mr Moonshine runs at Kelso (4.15) in the race that Ballabriggs used as a perennial GN prep. A big day for a number of them.
That's a very interesting race the Grimthorpe, with Godsmejudge also running, as well as several other GN entries Burton Port & Pete The Feat (not without a chance if a soft ground GN) go in the vets chase at Newbury at 2.40. Mr Moonshine runs at Kelso (4.15) in the race that Ballabriggs used as a perennial GN prep. A big day for a number of them.
Burton Port in first time CPs. Might be the making of the horse - or a sign of desperation!
They said on the morning line unibet are offering 40-1 on monbeg dude to win today and to finish in the first 4 of the GN
Cheers Chief, looks interesting that - being 9/2 at best to win today and 5.8 (i.e. 4.8/1) the GN place (1~4) on Betfair.
I've had a "hedging" punt on Godsmejudge e/w at 10s for this afternoon. If he wins or goes close his stats will elevate him to a GN win candidate (though behind T43, Monbeg Dude [providing he doesn't tip up] and Chance Du Roy) but only if it stops raining and he gets GS or better. As an 8y-o, though he handles Soft ground fine, the GN stats are against younger horses on Soft or Heavy. In the 4 GNs since 1989 run on Soft or Heavy (incl the Numbersixvalverde GN [which, confirmed by the Racing Post, the time suggests was Soft rather than the official GS] but excl the farcical Red Marauder GN), there have been 21 runners younger than 9 (13.7% of all runners). Just 2 of them completed (5.7% of finishers), the closest was 31L 8th. In fact, the 4 winners of these Soft or Heavy GNs were all 10~12 year-olds. With so many on the radar screen I'm not going to back for the GN just yet horses that, according to the model, I wouldn't want on the betting slip if the ground doesn't suit. If Godsmejudge wins today, however, his GN price will surely collapse from the (at best) 25s.
That's a very interesting race the Grimthorpe, with Godsmejudge also running, as well as several other GN entries Burton Port & Pete The Feat (not without a chance if a soft ground GN) go in the vets chase at Newbury at 2.40. Mr Moonshine runs at Kelso (4.15) in the race that Ballabriggs used as a perennial GN prep. A big day for a number of them.
Burton Port in first time CPs. Might be the making of the horse - or a sign of desperation!
"Rebecca Curtis looks like she will run Teaforthree in the Gold Cup. West Tip always used to run in the Gold Cup before the National. Though Noel Fehily is due to ride him at Aintree, he will ride Silviniaco Conti in the Gold Cup, so I have pencilled myself in to ride Teaforthree. He may not be among the favourites but he will stay and he jumps."
That's a very interesting race the Grimthorpe, with Godsmejudge also running, as well as several other GN entries Burton Port & Pete The Feat (not without a chance if a soft ground GN) go in the vets chase at Newbury at 2.40. Mr Moonshine runs at Kelso (4.15) in the race that Ballabriggs used as a perennial GN prep. A big day for a number of them.
Burton Port in first time CPs. Might be the making of the horse - or a sign of desperation!
Let it go AA.
Never. Not until I hit the bottom of Beachy Head!
Trust me - Jonjo knows what he's doing. Doesn't he?
That's a very interesting race the Grimthorpe, with Godsmejudge also running, as well as several other GN entries Burton Port & Pete The Feat (not without a chance if a soft ground GN) go in the vets chase at Newbury at 2.40. Mr Moonshine runs at Kelso (4.15) in the race that Ballabriggs used as a perennial GN prep. A big day for a number of them.
Burton Port in first time CPs. Might be the making of the horse - or a sign of desperation!
Let it go AA.
Never. Not until I hit the bottom of Beachy Head!
Trust me - Jonjo knows what he's doing. Doesn't he?
That's a very interesting race the Grimthorpe, with Godsmejudge also running, as well as several other GN entries Burton Port & Pete The Feat (not without a chance if a soft ground GN) go in the vets chase at Newbury at 2.40. Mr Moonshine runs at Kelso (4.15) in the race that Ballabriggs used as a perennial GN prep. A big day for a number of them.
Burton Port in first time CPs. Might be the making of the horse - or a sign of desperation!
Let it go AA.
Never. Not until I hit the bottom of Beachy Head!
Trust me - Jonjo knows what he's doing. Doesn't he?
Comments
Shakalakaboomboom goes in a hurdle later on the card.........big day for both of them
........but thanks..
Dave Orton of the Racing Post comments that Burton Port's "decline continues". IMO, journos and punters tend to over-react to post-weights superficial form. That's what makes the stat-model useful (and hopefully profit-making) because, as the post above explains (and it could be written about a host of horses placed in the GN in recent years), post-weights (even season's) form has very little relevance stat-wise to the GN chances (at least of finishing in the money) of many.
Of course, when horses are returning from injury, it is important to see some evidence that they remain competitive and this applies to both BP and Shaka. Certainly both have more to do but, assuming they are both physically OK, it's not the end of the GN road for either just yet.
Burton Port was off the bridle a long way out (again) but, unlike in his previous 4 runs this season, he kept on under urgings from new pilot Davy Russell and came home an OK 12.5L 8th in a competitive veterans 3m chase (maybe slightly flattered by the winner easing down at the line). Still well short of his former ability of course but, presumably with another run planned before 5 April, still not a no-hoper for the GN from a stats-perspective.
Such is his drop in mark that every race he now runs has the potential to produce a significant "binary" outcome as regards his GN stat-profile that, on the upside, could jet-propel him into place potential. Needs to take a much bigger step forwards next time though.
Shakalakboomboom pulled up some way out in a 3m hurdle. Certainly a disappointment not to complete but he was never going to be fully race-fit on his first spin over obstacles since the 2012 GN and he's never had great hurdles' form. Geraghty took him wide no doubt to avoid trouble but there was a small scrimmage during which he lost his footing going away from the stands, up to which point he'd seemed to be travelling well enough. Assuming he's OK and that Henderson considers he's not running out of time, he'll surely have another prep and a chance to dot his "i's", stat-wise.
A impressive winner of the bumper at Punchestown called What Lies Ahead, keep on the right side of this goin forward (obviously not talkin about the National)
The Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase was run over 25f at Fairyhouse, a race which often gives clues as to which Irish horses may run well in the subsequent GN. Inaugurated in 2003 in honour of the first Irish-trained winner of the GN for 24 years; a win, in 1999, that ushered in not only a golden run of 7 Irish wins in 9 GNs but also, since he’d won from a stone out of the handicap, the practice of the handicapper using his discretion to “compress” the GN weights – a policy that, arguably, has helped to stymie the winning chances of many Irish runners since 2007.
The Bobbyjo Chase is fittingly named because, despite being typically contested by a small field, going right-handed and on ground that is rarely replicated at Aintree, it has the closest correlation with GN success of any same-season chase in Ireland.
Since 2005, when Willie Mullins' Hedgehunter did the BJ and GN double, 7 horses making the frame or finishing <5L of the winner in the BJ have made the first 6 home in the subsequent GN.
So, when Willie Mullins’ ON HIS OWN (dual Thyestes Chase winner) took the race impressively yesterday, leading from flag to post, staying on and going away at the end (though he was receiving 5lbs+ from 5 of his 6 rivals), some bookies cut him to as short as 14/1 for the GN.
With his excellent season’s form and the BJ association with the GN, he’s got to have a great chance on 5 April doesn’t he?
Well the first problem is that it was such an impressive win that Willie Mullins may give him a target other than Aintree: “We clearly have a lot of thinking to do about Aintree. There is a chance we could step him up in grade for the Punchestown Gold Cup and I would say we´re entitled to consider it after a performance like that.”
Looking at other options is a good idea, according to my model, which rates OHO as highly unlikely to be in the shake-up should he run at Aintree. Why?
• He has fallen in both GN attempts to date – first time in 2012 when travelling well (with 10.11) at 2nd Bechers and last year (with 11.00) at the 25th but he was weakening badly at the time in mid div. His Official Rating when weighted for both races was 148.
He completed (18.5L 6th) in the Becher Chase on Soft in December, carrying 11.01 (OR144) seeing out the 26f trip OK but he was never put in the race and it appeared to be an attempt to give him confidence over the GN fences without attracting the attention of the handicapper.
• If so, it succeeded only in part because OHO’s mark for the 2014 GN is OR154 – 10lbs higher than for his Becher outing and 6lbs higher than when running out of gas in the last GN. Combined with the weights’ compression (most of the runners, OHO included, will carry 7lbs more than they would in any other chase with Tidal Bay at the head of the weights), that mark means that OHO will carry 11.03 – 3lbs+ more than he’s carried in his previous GNs and probably about 10lbs more than his career stats support.
Of the 11 GN winners since 1988 that carried more than 10.07 (excl red Marauder), all but 1 had solid form at 29f+. The exception was Ballabriggs (11.00 in 2011) who had won in both attempts at 26f, carrying 11.12 both times, including in a stamina-sapping Kim Muir at the 2010 Festival (he was unraced at further). OHO has never made the frame in 5 attempts over obstacles at 26f+ and has failed to complete in all 3 attempts at 4m+ (twice clearly beaten).
Good luck at Punchestown chaps!
Of the other 4 GN entries running in the Bobbyjo, only 2 finished and the handicapper has pretty much scuppered their chances as well:
• BUCKERS BRIDGE (in his first attempt under rules at 3m+) was a creditable 17L 3rd but as an 8 year old he doesn’t yet have the profile strength to make a mark at Aintree carrying 10.10.
• LION NA BEARNAI (2012 Irish GN winner) was a weakening and remote 4th and while his 12 years of age isn’t necessarily a barrier, he is due to carry a stone more than when winning the Irish GN - too much given his moderate form at 3m+ since that Fairyhouse win.
• Pulled up were both QUITO DE LA ROQUE, a pale shadow of his former self, and ROI DU MEE who (surprise, surprise) has far too much weight to carry at Aintree with 11.06, despite some fine performances at 3m in the last 12 months.
So, this year looks like being a rare blank one for the association between Bobbyjo Chase and GN.
Indeed, it may be that a stronger clue came in a humble 22f hunter chase over an hour later on the card, when 11 year-old SEABASS returned to the track after a 258 day absence (following a setback in December) and, though a little ring-rusty, came home a 1.25L 2nd. He needs a further prep(s) for fitness and stats but, allotted 11.02 for Aintree, if he comes through them satisfactorily, with a 5L 3rd in 2012 and a completion under an impossible weight last year for his GN form, he would have minor place potential (though no better), providing the ground is GS or better at Aintree.
Though none of the Irish runners yesterday have the stats to win the 2014 GN, there are a couple of others flying the Tricolour flashing away on the radar screen, one particularly brightly. More anon.
Meanwhile, back home, WYCK HILL won the 33f Eider Chase most impressively and was cut to 25/1 for the GN. However, at #93 (at best) in the weights he stands virtually no chance of lining up on 5 April.
Over at Kempton in the Grade 3 BetBright Chase (aka the Racing Post Chase to old timers) MIDNIGHT APPEAL, who clearly likes the course, came a 2.5L 4th. His Strike Rate (wins and near-misses) at 3m+ is an impressive 5/6 but 3 of these have come at Kempton and he has a serious negative in terms of a poor run over the GN fences in the Grand Sefton last December (blundered many times and didn’t appear to enjoy the experience), compounded by a Fall at Cheltenham in his only other chase at a left-handed, stiff-jumping track. He can put part of that right if putting in a strong performance in the 3m handicap chase at The Festival and give himself place potential on decent ground off just 10.05 for the GN (1 poor effort over the fences over 22f being potentially excusable) but he does appear to have jumping issues.
In the same race, 12 year-old PLANET OF SOUND ran well enough (17.5L 7th, co-incidentally the same margin of defeat when he was 3rd in the same race as his GN prep in 2012) but failed to improve his GN stat-profile. A former Punchestown Gold Cup winner and Hennessy close runner-up, like Midnight Appeal he could give himself the stats of a place contender on GS or better at Aintree if putting in a strong run in the 3m handicap chase at The Festival. He blew up 3 out in the 2012 GN and finished a remote 12th, being made far too much use of out in front, but he handled the GN fences well. He would carry 8lbs less (10.11) this time.
41 days to go. A shed load of Cheltenham entries for GN possibles so still lots of moving parts………….TTFN
And Monbeg Dude’s trainer Michael Scudamore is keen to use the Doncaster feature as a prep race for Aintree.
Last season’s Welsh Grand National winner is a best-priced 20-1 third favourite with most bookmakers for the Aintree marathon on April 5.
Scudamore said: “He’ll get lots of entries on Saturday, but Doncaster is the first choice. He’ll also be in at Kelso and over hurdles at Newbury, but that is very much the back-up plan.
“Unless something strange happens up there with the weather, you’d hope the ground at Doncaster would be fine for him.”
Owned by a syndicate that includes former England rugby union star Mike Tindall, the nine-year-old missed his intended prep run in the Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock earlier this month due to an unsatisfactory scope.
But Scudamore added: “He’s in very good form and we are looking forward to getting him back out again.
“He enjoyed himself in a bit of work on Saturday and everyone was very positive afterwards. He’s in good form, he has scoped well and his blood is fine.”
Nicky Henderson’s Triolo D’Alene, who won the Topham Chase over the National fences before landing the Hennessy Gold Cup back in November, is also a 20-1 chance for the National.
He could, though, run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Other National entries who could line up at Doncaster on Saturday are Alan King’s Godsmejudge, the Paul Nicholls-trained Mon Parrain as well as Court By Surprise, Mart Lane, Alvarado, Night In Milan, Real Milan, Renard, Storm Survivor and Wayward Prince.
Monbeg Dude has a great chance, importantly on any ground.
You would think that being well rested would be a necessity for a GN winner so lots of people think that a Festival run isn't a great idea. It no doubt depends on the horse but being fit doesn't necessary mean being rested. Indeed, GN stats suggest that a recent race (whether or not at the Festival) tends to be a help not a hindrance.
Winners of the GN (since 1988) that ran at the preceding Festival:
1988 Rhyme n Reason (Fell at the 19th in the GC)
1990 Mr Frisk (4th in the Kim Muir)
1991 Seagram (won Ritz Club Chase) / 2nd was Garrison Savannah (won the GC)
1994 Miinnehoma (7th in the GC)
1996 Rough Quest (2nd GC a mere 16 days earlier)) / 2nd was Encore Un Peu (2nd Kim Muir)
2002 Bindaree (7th WH National Hunt Chase) / 2nd was Whats Up Boys (5th in GC)
2007 Silver Birch (2nd in the XC)
2010 Don't Push It (PU'd before the last in the Pertemps Final hurdle)
So 8 of the last 24 GNs (excl the Red Marauder GN) were won by horses having raced at the Festival (7 of them between 16 and 25 days earlier - Silver Birch being 32 when there was an extra week's gap).
Of the other 16 GNs:
a) in 11 of them Festival runners came 2nd or 3rd (or both) and
b) 6 were won by horses that had their last race elsewhere but during or after Festival week.
In summary, last races were:
4 GN winners 16~21 days prior
10 GN winners 22~28 days
7 GN winners 29~35 days (this Saturday coming is 35 days prior)
3 GN winners >35 days (max 56)
It's a big weekend alright. Godmesjudge only has to show he's OK to put his stats in very good shape (but, as an 8y-o, he would need it GS or better at Aintree). More anon.
Did Lord Gyllene have a light warm up over 4.25m with 11.10 around Uttoxeter when 7L 2nd in the Midlands National 23 days before registering the biggest winning margin in any GN since 1988 (at least)?
It was hardly a stroll around Prestbury Park when Rough Quest was 2nd to Imperial Call in the GC 16 days before winning the GN. Indeed, he had also won the Racing Post Chase 19 days before that.
It depends on the horse but, as you say, all benefit from a prep beforehand, ideally 35 days or less.
Fingers crossed the Dude has a nice and safe one.
Rubi Light, Planet Of Sound, White Star Line, Midnight Appeal, Away We Go, Renard, Highland Lodge, Merry King, Ikorodu Road, Liberty Counsel, Quel Esprit, Up The Beat, Rockyaboya, Orpheus Valley, Ringa Bay.
100 stand their ground.
The last one (at this stage) to get a run on the Big Day ranged from #57~68 in last 4 GNs (but 3 of them were #67~68).
EDIT. Sorry that was a load of bollocks what was up here just now. Back in a jif.
FURTHER EDIT: OK abacus replaced. Here's where they currently stand after the 1st forfeit:
Only 2 in the original top 40 came out and so #40 is still 10.08 but all those allotted 10.08+ are now guaranteed a run.
#57 = the lowest-rated of those allotted 10.04: Mart Lane, Same Difference, The Package, Well Refreshed
#68 = the 2nd of the 3 allotted 10.01: Goonyella, Goulanes and Swing Bill
Chance Du Roy (having been dropped 1lb since the weights were framed) is currently #48 and should comfortably get in
Shakalakaboomboom is #58~61 depending on re-ratings - would be unlucky not to make the cut
Tranquil Sea is #74 (having been put up 9lbs after his Donny win) - still unlikely to get a run
Wyck Hill is #80 (having gone up 8lbs after his Eider win) - still very unlikely to do so
Burton Port & Pete The Feat (not without a chance if a soft ground GN) go in the vets chase at Newbury at 2.40.
Mr Moonshine runs at Kelso (4.15) in the race that Ballabriggs used as a perennial GN prep.
A big day for a number of them.
I've had a "hedging" punt on Godsmejudge e/w at 10s for this afternoon. If he wins or goes close his stats will elevate him to a GN win candidate (though behind T43, Monbeg Dude [providing he doesn't tip up] and Chance Du Roy) but only if it stops raining and he gets GS or better.
As an 8y-o, though he handles Soft ground fine, the GN stats are against younger horses on Soft or Heavy. In the 4 GNs since 1989 run on Soft or Heavy (incl the Numbersixvalverde GN [which, confirmed by the Racing Post, the time suggests was Soft rather than the official GS] but excl the farcical Red Marauder GN), there have been 21 runners younger than 9 (13.7% of all runners). Just 2 of them completed (5.7% of finishers), the closest was 31L 8th.
In fact, the 4 winners of these Soft or Heavy GNs were all 10~12 year-olds.
With so many on the radar screen I'm not going to back for the GN just yet horses that, according to the model, I wouldn't want on the betting slip if the ground doesn't suit. If Godsmejudge wins today, however, his GN price will surely collapse from the (at best) 25s.
Trust me - Jonjo knows what he's doing. Doesn't he?