All four selections backed!! .... Looking purely at form, and with no knowledge whatsoever, I think Mendip Express looks quite interesting.
A fine young chaser is Mendip Express and could easily do the business today. Closely related to that terrific staying and soft-ground loving mare of Nicky Henderson's, Fiddling The Facts (runner-up in a Welsh Nat and twice placed in the Hennessy).
This is firkin ridiculous. You cannot have large fields buggered about at the start by one KNOWN recalcitrant starter. Just let them go. If he doesn't jump off, too bad.
Great run from Godsmejudge! Thanks for the tip peanuts! .... I also had a very lucky punt on Al Co at 40/1!
Now look here LLG. The rules of these threads are that you don't keep 40/1 winners to yourself ;o) Well done - many congrats indeed.
PS It was a great run from GMJ. Possibly just dried out a nadge for old Tidal and maybe not totally 100% after last Saturday. Didn't quite get home. Oh well, got out largely unscathed.
Was wondering if you'd kept the faith AA. Looked like the (easy) winner turning for home. AP gave him a peach. Tidal Bay retired today. Will miss the old monkey.
Grand National 2014: Jockeys cautioned following chaotic start
Thirty-nine jockeys have been cautioned after being found guilty of misconduct following the chaotic start to the 2014 Grand National at Aintree. The riders were charged with a breach of racing rules for lining up at the beginning of the race before being given permission by the starter. The cautions were handed out by a disciplinary panel convened by the British Horseracing Authority. Pineau De Re, ridden by jockey Leighton Aspell, won the 167th National. On the first attempt to get the race under way, assistant starter Simon McNeill was knocked over by one of the runners as it approached the start line. He was not badly hurt. During the hearing, race starter Hugh Barclay agreed with jockeys' QC Graeme McPherson that after a warning given 30 seconds before the race, riders are routinely "trusted to sort themselves out and line up". McNeill, a former jockey, disputed whether the warning had actually been given but the panel judged that the jockeys had "lined up before being instructed to do so". Tim Charlton, chairing the BHA panel, said: "We recognise the primary problems which occurred were from actions that were not theirs."
So, in the post-Christmas lull, I'm tweaking my GN model, looking to account for the disappointing result for the model last year, which was a slight puzzle after a pretty decent result in 2013 (2nd,3rd, 6th). I discover that I made an input error in respect of one particular factor (success at big jumping courses) in respect of one particular runner. That runner was, you've guessed it, none other than the winner Pineau De Re. Without the screw-up by yours truly, he would have been the model's 4th best-rated on decent ground (which we had) behind T43 (fell), Monbeg Dude (6th) and Chance Du Roy (5th). He would thus have appeared on the betting slip. What a ****ing PILLOCK.
its so easy in hindsight!!! I am still fascinated by your previews PM and will carry on following them!
Cheers Sonic. Much appreciate the comment.
This has more to do with a "fat-finger" ("fat head" more like) than hindsight though. That's what makes it cringing because the model would have scored the winner (albeit from its 4th best selection) had Mr Gumby not mis-applied one particular factor to Pineau De Re's stats ("Major Jumps Course Success").
Quite simply, I penalised him in respect of that factor when the model's existing formula was saying that he should not have been penalised.
Absent form over the GN fences themselves, that factor requires a meaningful level (either multiple cases or at Class 1) of prior chase success at the likes of Cheltenham, Chepstow, Newbury, Leopardstown et al BUT it accepts a slightly lesser or less-frequent level if a runner has proven stamina (has chase win over 3.5m+), on the grounds that its jumping is less likely to be affected by tiredness. That formula has been robust over all the GNs since 1988 and it was notable that it remained so for the 2013 GN, being the first since the most significant fence changes - of the 7 runners penalised in respect of this factor, only 1 completed (Across The Bay, 14th).
So, initially I was puzzled that both winner and 3rd in the 2014 GN had penalties in respect of that factor. 3rd placed Double Seven's penalty was correctly applied according to the model's methodology but (as I now discover) Pineau De Re's wasn't. Elsewhere the model correctly took account of his stamina credit (won 2013 Ulster National) but I failed to adjust the level required of him in respect of this Major Jumps Course factor. Given his stamina credit, he'd done enough with his close 2nd over 21f in a large-field Grade B at Leopardstown in 2013 to escape a penalty according to the existing model formula but Peanut-brain here still went ahead penalised him as though he did not have a stamina credit. DOH!!
In other words, although the model appeared at long last to have got it horribly wrong in the 2014GN (it still needs tweaking of course), in substance it hadn't - it was largely operator error..................and a costly one.
Comments
Good luck.
Godsmejudge 2nd - thank gawd!!!
Trustan Times 3rd
Merry King 4th
Summery Justice 5th
Well done - many congrats indeed.
PS It was a great run from GMJ. Possibly just dried out a nadge for old Tidal and maybe not totally 100% after last Saturday. Didn't quite get home. Oh well, got out largely unscathed.
Tidal Bay retired today. Will miss the old monkey.
Grand National 2014: Jockeys cautioned following chaotic start
Thirty-nine jockeys have been cautioned after being found guilty of misconduct following the chaotic start to the 2014 Grand National at Aintree.
The riders were charged with a breach of racing rules for lining up at the beginning of the race before being given permission by the starter.
The cautions were handed out by a disciplinary panel convened by the British Horseracing Authority.
Pineau De Re, ridden by jockey Leighton Aspell, won the 167th National.
On the first attempt to get the race under way, assistant starter Simon McNeill was knocked over by one of the runners as it approached the start line. He was not badly hurt.
During the hearing, race starter Hugh Barclay agreed with jockeys' QC Graeme McPherson that after a warning given 30 seconds before the race, riders are routinely "trusted to sort themselves out and line up".
McNeill, a former jockey, disputed whether the warning had actually been given but the panel judged that the jockeys had "lined up before being instructed to do so".
Tim Charlton, chairing the BHA panel, said: "We recognise the primary problems which occurred were from actions that were not theirs."
So, in the post-Christmas lull, I'm tweaking my GN model, looking to account for the disappointing result for the model last year, which was a slight puzzle after a pretty decent result in 2013 (2nd,3rd, 6th).
I discover that I made an input error in respect of one particular factor (success at big jumping courses) in respect of one particular runner.
That runner was, you've guessed it, none other than the winner Pineau De Re.
Without the screw-up by yours truly, he would have been the model's 4th best-rated on decent ground (which we had) behind T43 (fell), Monbeg Dude (6th) and Chance Du Roy (5th). He would thus have appeared on the betting slip.
What a ****ing PILLOCK.
This has more to do with a "fat-finger" ("fat head" more like) than hindsight though. That's what makes it cringing because the model would have scored the winner (albeit from its 4th best selection) had Mr Gumby not mis-applied one particular factor to Pineau De Re's stats ("Major Jumps Course Success").
Quite simply, I penalised him in respect of that factor when the model's existing formula was saying that he should not have been penalised.
Absent form over the GN fences themselves, that factor requires a meaningful level (either multiple cases or at Class 1) of prior chase success at the likes of Cheltenham, Chepstow, Newbury, Leopardstown et al BUT it accepts a slightly lesser or less-frequent level if a runner has proven stamina (has chase win over 3.5m+), on the grounds that its jumping is less likely to be affected by tiredness. That formula has been robust over all the GNs since 1988 and it was notable that it remained so for the 2013 GN, being the first since the most significant fence changes - of the 7 runners penalised in respect of this factor, only 1 completed (Across The Bay, 14th).
So, initially I was puzzled that both winner and 3rd in the 2014 GN had penalties in respect of that factor. 3rd placed Double Seven's penalty was correctly applied according to the model's methodology but (as I now discover) Pineau De Re's wasn't. Elsewhere the model correctly took account of his stamina credit (won 2013 Ulster National) but I failed to adjust the level required of him in respect of this Major Jumps Course factor. Given his stamina credit, he'd done enough with his close 2nd over 21f in a large-field Grade B at Leopardstown in 2013 to escape a penalty according to the existing model formula but Peanut-brain here still went ahead penalised him as though he did not have a stamina credit. DOH!!
In other words, although the model appeared at long last to have got it horribly wrong in the 2014GN (it still needs tweaking of course), in substance it hadn't - it was largely operator error..................and a costly one.