Two (out of 4) of the 'Times' pundits who I respect tipped the winner .. I had a few bob e/w as well as a e/w punt on the 2nd (Johnson WILL win this one day !!) .. my other 3 selections blew out although Monbeg came 7th (I think) .. so all in all a profitable day and a good day .. except for the loss to Reading _
Thanks Peanut. I had no idea about this, so avoided the favourite because of the odds and did each way on dude and chances, with a heavier bet on chances. Came out with a tidy profit, shame victor did!'t have 7 places.
Peanuts like every bet we place it's a gamble and I know I enter it knowing the gamble will not always pay so don't worry mate we win some we lose some that's the risk
Two (out of 4) of the 'Times' pundits who I respect tipped the winner .. I had a few bob e/w as well as a e/w punt on the 2nd (Johnson WILL win this one day !!) .. my other 3 selections blew out although Monbeg came 7th (I think) .. so all in all a profitable day and a good day .. except for the loss to Reading _
Well done again Peanuts - maybe not a landslide but 33/1 6th with VC and the Dude / Swing Bill both there at the end too.
Small loss on the day - no complaints.
Cheers phil. Just love old Bill. Just too quick for him today but so predictable round there. Bit of a shock to see T43 tip up. Have to catch up with our mutual friend.
Thanks Peanut. I had no idea about this, so avoided the favourite because of the odds and did each way on dude and chances, with a heavier bet on chances. Came out with a tidy profit, shame victor did!'t have 7 places.
Two (out of 4) of the 'Times' pundits who I respect tipped the winner .. I had a few bob e/w as well as a e/w punt on the 2nd (Johnson WILL win this one day !!) .. my other 3 selections blew out although Monbeg came 7th (I think) .. so all in all a profitable day and a good day .. except for the loss to Reading _
Well done Lincs, you shrewdie.
cheers Peanuts .. their analysis, similar in style to yours, is worth a look, though the Times website is a subscription site (I actually bought the 'hard' copy/paper version) .. I might scan and post the analysis .. without their 'prompting', I confess that I would not have backed the winner .. shame about the Dude, he lacked pace and acceleration, he will never win the GN I fear
Peanuts like every bet we place it's a gamble and I know I enter it knowing the gamble will not always pay so don't worry mate we win some we lose some that's the risk
Cheers smiffy. I haven't forgotten you enquired about Pineau De Re after his run at Cheltenham!
Two (out of 4) of the 'Times' pundits who I respect tipped the winner .. I had a few bob e/w as well as a e/w punt on the 2nd (Johnson WILL win this one day !!) .. my other 3 selections blew out although Monbeg came 7th (I think) .. so all in all a profitable day and a good day .. except for the loss to Reading _
Well done Lincs, you shrewdie.
cheers Peanuts .. their analysis, similar in style to yours, is worth a look, though the Times website is a subscription site (I actually bought the 'hard' copy/paper version) .. I might scan and post the analysis .. without their 'prompting', I confess that I would not have backed the winner .. shame about the Dude, he lacked pace and acceleration, he will never win the GN I fear
Would be interested to see that if it's possible to post it Lincs but don't worry if it's a hassle. Don't know what to make of that run by the Dude. Seemed to jump quite well (better than feared), wasn't too far from the action when it was getting serious. At first glance it seemed like he didn't quite get home but it maybe, as you say, that he didn't have the pace at the death. Perhaps it wasn't a stiff enough test for him on that ground. Have to study the race at more length....first a few bevvies and a kip.
Thanks for a fascinating thread Peanuts. You are still the Guru on all things horse racing for me and the little girl.
We got 6th with Victor for Chance de Roi so not a complete blow out by any means.
You're very kind Len - don't think I've ever been called a Guru and, though it is definitely undeserved, I much appreciate the comment. Delighted that you and your little girl didn't draw a total blank. Fine run by Roy.
Very astute trainer Newland, doesn't have a big string, but looks to have Saturday horses. Did the winner win at Warwick last time out ?
If we are talking astute, take a bow northstandsteve. He may not have won (and you may not have even made a penny for his 6th place) but Chance Du Roy really ran a fine race today. To pick him out in that 2.5m handicap at Chepstow a couple of years ago as a GN contender, well before he'd ever seen Aintree, was indeed astute. He most certainly contended today and deserved a tad better IMO than 6th, though the winner was certainly a worthy one. Nice one Chief.
Interesting that you normally reply to all posts but ignored this one Peanuts. Had a small wager ew so a small profit to cover losses elsewhere. Was gutted that the dude was below par. Poor training effort in my opinion as should have pushed on. Seems to have swapped stamina for good jumping.
Bad day all round. Lesson learnt for me in getting carried away and upping my stakes when in reality I'm on a very casual gambler.
Thanks for the enjoyment PM, same time next year pal
Cheers Chief. Sorry the run's been broken and even more sorry that beans are the order of the day for a while........for me too.
Many congratulations to those that picked out the winner and others making the frame yesterday. There are, very occasionally, lucky winners of the GN but there was nothing fortuitous about Pineau De Re's win - it was mighty impressive - and all of the next 5 home were carried out on their shields.
So, has the model lost its mojo?
Well, it's a bad workman that blames his tools and first impression of yesterday's result is that this one is definitely down to the workman.
All of the successful horses yesterday have facets about their profile (particularly in the stamina, weight and performance-consistency camps) that confirm significant elements of a stat-based approach to selecting GN winners.
The principal reason why my own system hit a wall yesterday appears to be a failure to adapt to the fence changes of recent years. Those changes would seem to have passed a tipping point post-2012 in terms of the test presented by the race (commonly spoken of) and, therefore, of the application of a couple of specific stats that the model had employed robustly hitherto.
By using the data of placed horses and employing a scoring (rather than elimination) system, the model's been reasonably adept at anticipating evolving trends in the GN, for example when it comes to carrying weight. As of yesterday it hadn't yet adapted to the fence changes, which had had a demonstrable effect on the number of fallers in the 2013 race (as Abs observed a few days ago) but without, from the model's perspective, affecting the identity of the successful runners (thus no evolution of those specific stats had been triggered). Yesterday it affected the identity of those making the frame big time.
For example, relevant to both winner and 3rd placed Double Seven is (respectively) the relative and complete lack of form at major LH chase tracks. Until yesterday, every GN winner and those finishing <10L in all GNs since (at least) 1988 had ticked that box. PDR had limited form at such tracks and "77" had none. So robust was that stat previously (even last year, 7 of the field failed it to some degree, only 1 of them finished and was 87L 14th) that to fall foul of it, in varying degrees, was a significant negative in the horse's stat-profile. Clearly this has to be materially modified (at least) for future GNs.
Of course, that will not alone explain all of the unexpected performances yesterday and it will take a while to conduct the forensic examination of the wreckage of the model's prognostications. Yet, despite the lack of financial returns, there were some re-assuringly accurate elements to its pre-race analysis.
On Good ground (which is how the Racing Post describe the time-based going), the model had rated as level Chance Du Roy and The Dude (they finished within 3L of each other in 6th and 7th) and Swing Bill as being 24L behind them (he finished 19L behind CDR in 9th) and so we have a decent benchmark to review and re-assess the profiles of the outperformers. No need to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
So, indeed AFKA, in those immortal words.................I'll be back.
Interesting that you normally reply to all posts but ignored this one Peanuts. Had a small wager ew so a small profit to cover losses elsewhere. Was gutted that the dude was below par. Poor training effort in my opinion as should have pushed on. Seems to have swapped stamina for good jumping.
Nice one Abs...........................You make so many insightful contributions it's hard to keep up ;o)
PS Bit harsh on Scudamore. Not much point in having shed loads of stamina if you've gone before 2 furlongs.
Peanuts, the winner won the Ulster National on 5th April last year..............like Aurora Encore with the Scottish the year before. ie Into form in April. Next Sat is this years Scottish Nat fancy Mendip Express..............10-1 fav anti-post
Peanuts, the winner won the Ulster National on 5th April last year..............like Aurora Encore with the Scottish the year before. ie Into form in April. Next Sat is this years Scottish Nat fancy Mendip Express..............10-1 fav anti-post
I thought I had six places on du Roy as well but only five which is a killer. A bad day yesterday.
Blimey that's gutting. Done by A SHORT HEAD...........like bloody 2012. I've lost count of the number of decent priced GN runners I'd backed over the years that finished one place outside my e/w terms. That's why, for the longer-priced ones, I now always wait for Vic to go 6 places even if he's not the highest price when he does. Bill last year, Roy this one. Makes a huge difference. Apologies we didn't get any of the others into the frame. Blooded but unbowed.....we'll get the buggers next year.
Had CDR 6 place - only because Of PM's advice to wait for the 6 place deal. Thanks buddy; managed to recoup all of my £50 outlay on that one. Phew! Given you tipped a 33-1 (6th), 14-1 (7th) and even a 100-1 in Swing Bill (9th), I'd say that the model is still relevant. Anyone would be happy with a placed return on the larger 2 of those 3 so you get another THUMBS UP from me again. As I said yesterday, thanks for your efforts this year. It's always the consistently best thread on CL each year. Cheers Buddy.
What do you think about the horse that was taken out by the loose horses PM? Do you think he could have had a chance?
Sorry about the beans creepy (Worcester sauce jazzes them up nicely). I haven't heard anyone say this but the same thing actually happened to him (not quite as bad) last year in exactly the same place with the same jockey. The loose horses (and even some runners) often try to head back to the stables at that point but you'd have thought the jock would have learnt not to get on the outside of them after the water. I don't think he'd have been in the shake-up anyway but I hesitate to say anything too definite after the near-total blank by the model. I'll get my head around it though.
Had CDR 6 place - only because Of PM's advice to wait for the 6 place deal. Thanks buddy; managed to recoup all of my £50 outlay on that one. Phew! Given you tipped a 33-1 (6th), 14-1 (7th) and even a 100-1 in Swing Bill (9th), I'd say that the model is still relevant. Anyone would be happy with a placed return on the larger 2 of those 3 so you get another THUMBS UP from me again. As I said yesterday, thanks for your efforts this year. It's always the consistently best thread on CL each year. Cheers Buddy.
Very kind meldrew66. Much appreciate the comments and delighted you came out unscathed. Roy's 6th it didn't quite cover all my stakes and Mrs Molloy's pretty deadly from 10 feet with a frying pan.....where's the arnica gel?
Very astute trainer Newland, doesn't have a big string, but looks to have Saturday horses. Did the winner win at Warwick last time out ?
If we are talking astute, take a bow northstandsteve. He may not have won (and you may not have even made a penny for his 6th place) but Chance Du Roy really ran a fine race today. To pick him out in that 2.5m handicap at Chepstow a couple of years ago as a GN contender, well before he'd ever seen Aintree, was indeed astute. He most certainly contended today and deserved a tad better IMO than 6th, though the winner was certainly a worthy one. Nice one Chief.
Thanks PM I do enjoy following horses through their career.
You're way too kind Len\'s_little_girl but much appreciated...............and since you ask.........
.......ordinarily I wouldn’t have any strong views. Scottish Nationals (like the Irish version), are so often the preserve of younger winners that it makes stat-following very hazardous, given their short-ish chasing careers.
HOWEVER, it is a relatively rare occasion for the Ayr marathon to be run (as today) on proper GS or softer (confirmed by yesterday's times) and, since the evidence of softer ground GNs suggests that younger runners are less successful and those that tick certain stamina and experience stats tend to do well, I'm going to have a lash at some crude stat-based selections once more.
TIDAL BAY
I can't resist an each way interest (Sportingbet 16/1 for 5 places) in my old buddy, top-weight TIDAL BAY. He unseated at the 8th fence last week (in fact was brought down) but continued riderless to complete the first circuit in front before exiting at the stable bend (him being the culprit that carried the hapless Across The Bay most of the way back to the stables). I'm happy to take it on trust that connections would not run him today unless he was fit and ready to go. Sam T-D, seemingly first choice for the yard with Jacob sidelined, hasn't abandoned him for the more fancied Sam Winner and, for a horse of his stamina, that Aintree excursion should not have been too strenuous to ruin his chance today. Indeed Joes Edge won the 2005 Scot Nat after winning a 2m4f chase at Aintree a week earlier.
He'll have trip and ground in favour but of course is top weight with 11.12 and without the handicap pull he had at Aintree. However, while it may be counter-intuitive, softer ground tends to assist carrying big weights providing a horse has abundant stamina - the one thing even harder than carrying top weight to win over a marathon trip on softer ground is carrying it at the pace of good ground. Tidal Bay himself was a fast finishing 0.75L 3rd in the 30f Welsh National with 11.12 on heavy (also won a Grade 2 25f hurdle earlier in the season on proper GS, so doesn't need it testing despite his advancing years). The last 2 Scot Nats run on softer than Good were won by horses carrying 11.12 (Grey Abbey 2004 on GS) and 11.10 (Young Kenny 1999 on Soft). Both of these winners (and the placed horses finishing within 20L of them) had previously won or been placed <4L in a Class 1 or 2 chase at 4m+. They had also all had 9+ chases in the careers to date.
Actually Tidal Bay hasn't won or gone close at 4m+ (his only attempts being both URs early in the GN), but his strong finishing win with 11.12 in the 2012 Bet365 (aka "Whitbread") and WN 3rd, both over 3.75m, leaves no doubt that 33f on ground with cut should play to his strengths.
I'll add to him on my betting slip an interest in the only runners today that meet both the 4m+ win (or near-miss) and 9+ chases stats:
GODSMEJUDGE (last year's SN winner) 18/1 MISTER MARKER (last year's SN 3rd) 28/1 ADRENALIN FLIGHT 25/1
If ready to run (and Alan King clearly believes he is, having scratched him last week), Godsmejudge should relish being back on ground with cut (carrying 12lbs less than when winning last year, though 6lbs higher on Official Ratings) and, though they are respectively 5lbs and 10lbs out of the handicap (2 SN winners since 2005 have been 5+lbs o/h, including Iris De Balme in 2008 - a whopping 26lbs o/h), I'll happily go with the stamina and experience stats and have Mister Marker (close 3rd in the 2011 Scottish Borders National over 4m and 13L 3rd in the last SN with 11lbs more than he carries today) and Adrenalin Flight (a strong finishing 2.25L 4th in the 4m amateurs chase at the Festival a month ago - 2 of last 3 SN winners had made the frame in that season's 4m Festival novice chase) running for me, all 5 places e/w.
Comments
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Small loss on the day - no complaints.
Bit of a shock to see T43 tip up. Have to catch up with our mutual friend.
We got 6th with Victor for Chance de Roi so not a complete blow out by any means.
Don't know what to make of that run by the Dude. Seemed to jump quite well (better than feared), wasn't too far from the action when it was getting serious. At first glance it seemed like he didn't quite get home but it maybe, as you say, that he didn't have the pace at the death. Perhaps it wasn't a stiff enough test for him on that ground. Have to study the race at more length....first a few bevvies and a kip.
He may not have won (and you may not have even made a penny for his 6th place) but Chance Du Roy really ran a fine race today. To pick him out in that 2.5m handicap at Chepstow a couple of years ago as a GN contender, well before he'd ever seen Aintree, was indeed astute. He most certainly contended today and deserved a tad better IMO than 6th, though the winner was certainly a worthy one.
Nice one Chief.
Had a small wager ew so a small profit to cover losses elsewhere.
Was gutted that the dude was below par. Poor training effort in my opinion as should have pushed on.
Seems to have swapped stamina for good jumping.
Thanks for the enjoyment PM, same time next year pal
Cheers Chief. Sorry the run's been broken and even more sorry that beans are the order of the day for a while........for me too.
Many congratulations to those that picked out the winner and others making the frame yesterday. There are, very occasionally, lucky winners of the GN but there was nothing fortuitous about Pineau De Re's win - it was mighty impressive - and all of the next 5 home were carried out on their shields.
So, has the model lost its mojo?
Well, it's a bad workman that blames his tools and first impression of yesterday's result is that this one is definitely down to the workman.
All of the successful horses yesterday have facets about their profile (particularly in the stamina, weight and performance-consistency camps) that confirm significant elements of a stat-based approach to selecting GN winners.
The principal reason why my own system hit a wall yesterday appears to be a failure to adapt to the fence changes of recent years. Those changes would seem to have passed a tipping point post-2012 in terms of the test presented by the race (commonly spoken of) and, therefore, of the application of a couple of specific stats that the model had employed robustly hitherto.
By using the data of placed horses and employing a scoring (rather than elimination) system, the model's been reasonably adept at anticipating evolving trends in the GN, for example when it comes to carrying weight. As of yesterday it hadn't yet adapted to the fence changes, which had had a demonstrable effect on the number of fallers in the 2013 race (as Abs observed a few days ago) but without, from the model's perspective, affecting the identity of the successful runners (thus no evolution of those specific stats had been triggered). Yesterday it affected the identity of those making the frame big time.
For example, relevant to both winner and 3rd placed Double Seven is (respectively) the relative and complete lack of form at major LH chase tracks. Until yesterday, every GN winner and those finishing <10L in all GNs since (at least) 1988 had ticked that box. PDR had limited form at such tracks and "77" had none. So robust was that stat previously (even last year, 7 of the field failed it to some degree, only 1 of them finished and was 87L 14th) that to fall foul of it, in varying degrees, was a significant negative in the horse's stat-profile. Clearly this has to be materially modified (at least) for future GNs.
Of course, that will not alone explain all of the unexpected performances yesterday and it will take a while to conduct the forensic examination of the wreckage of the model's prognostications. Yet, despite the lack of financial returns, there were some re-assuringly accurate elements to its pre-race analysis.
On Good ground (which is how the Racing Post describe the time-based going), the model had rated as level Chance Du Roy and The Dude (they finished within 3L of each other in 6th and 7th) and Swing Bill as being 24L behind them (he finished 19L behind CDR in 9th) and so we have a decent benchmark to review and re-assess the profiles of the outperformers. No need to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
So, indeed AFKA, in those immortal words.................I'll be back.
PS Bit harsh on Scudamore. Not much point in having shed loads of stamina if you've gone before 2 furlongs.
ie Into form in April.
Next Sat is this years Scottish Nat fancy Mendip Express..............10-1 fav anti-post
I've lost count of the number of decent priced GN runners I'd backed over the years that finished one place outside my e/w terms. That's why, for the longer-priced ones, I now always wait for Vic to go 6 places even if he's not the highest price when he does.
Bill last year, Roy this one. Makes a huge difference.
Apologies we didn't get any of the others into the frame. Blooded but unbowed.....we'll get the buggers next year.
What do you think about the horse that was taken out by the loose horses PM? Do you think he could have had a chance?
Sorry about the beans creepy (Worcester sauce jazzes them up nicely).
I haven't heard anyone say this but the same thing actually happened to him (not quite as bad) last year in exactly the same place with the same jockey. The loose horses (and even some runners) often try to head back to the stables at that point but you'd have thought the jock would have learnt not to get on the outside of them after the water.
I don't think he'd have been in the shake-up anyway but I hesitate to say anything too definite after the near-total blank by the model. I'll get my head around it though.
Roy's 6th it didn't quite cover all my stakes and Mrs Molloy's pretty deadly from 10 feet with a frying pan.....where's the arnica gel?
.......ordinarily I wouldn’t have any strong views. Scottish Nationals (like the Irish version), are so often the preserve of younger winners that it makes stat-following very hazardous, given their short-ish chasing careers.
HOWEVER, it is a relatively rare occasion for the Ayr marathon to be run (as today) on proper GS or softer (confirmed by yesterday's times) and, since the evidence of softer ground GNs suggests that younger runners are less successful and those that tick certain stamina and experience stats tend to do well, I'm going to have a lash at some crude stat-based selections once more.
TIDAL BAY
I can't resist an each way interest (Sportingbet 16/1 for 5 places) in my old buddy, top-weight TIDAL BAY. He unseated at the 8th fence last week (in fact was brought down) but continued riderless to complete the first circuit in front before exiting at the stable bend (him being the culprit that carried the hapless Across The Bay most of the way back to the stables). I'm happy to take it on trust that connections would not run him today unless he was fit and ready to go. Sam T-D, seemingly first choice for the yard with Jacob sidelined, hasn't abandoned him for the more fancied Sam Winner and, for a horse of his stamina, that Aintree excursion should not have been too strenuous to ruin his chance today. Indeed Joes Edge won the 2005 Scot Nat after winning a 2m4f chase at Aintree a week earlier.
He'll have trip and ground in favour but of course is top weight with 11.12 and without the handicap pull he had at Aintree. However, while it may be counter-intuitive, softer ground tends to assist carrying big weights providing a horse has abundant stamina - the one thing even harder than carrying top weight to win over a marathon trip on softer ground is carrying it at the pace of good ground. Tidal Bay himself was a fast finishing 0.75L 3rd in the 30f Welsh National with 11.12 on heavy (also won a Grade 2 25f hurdle earlier in the season on proper GS, so doesn't need it testing despite his advancing years). The last 2 Scot Nats run on softer than Good were won by horses carrying 11.12 (Grey Abbey 2004 on GS) and 11.10 (Young Kenny 1999 on Soft). Both of these winners (and the placed horses finishing within 20L of them) had previously won or been placed <4L in a Class 1 or 2 chase at 4m+. They had also all had 9+ chases in the careers to date.
Actually Tidal Bay hasn't won or gone close at 4m+ (his only attempts being both URs early in the GN), but his strong finishing win with 11.12 in the 2012 Bet365 (aka "Whitbread") and WN 3rd, both over 3.75m, leaves no doubt that 33f on ground with cut should play to his strengths.
I'll add to him on my betting slip an interest in the only runners today that meet both the 4m+ win (or near-miss) and 9+ chases stats:
GODSMEJUDGE (last year's SN winner) 18/1
MISTER MARKER (last year's SN 3rd) 28/1
ADRENALIN FLIGHT 25/1
If ready to run (and Alan King clearly believes he is, having scratched him last week), Godsmejudge should relish being back on ground with cut (carrying 12lbs less than when winning last year, though 6lbs higher on Official Ratings) and, though they are respectively 5lbs and 10lbs out of the handicap (2 SN winners since 2005 have been 5+lbs o/h, including Iris De Balme in 2008 - a whopping 26lbs o/h), I'll happily go with the stamina and experience stats and have Mister Marker (close 3rd in the 2011 Scottish Borders National over 4m and 13L 3rd in the last SN with 11lbs more than he carries today) and Adrenalin Flight (a strong finishing 2.25L 4th in the 4m amateurs chase at the Festival a month ago - 2 of last 3 SN winners had made the frame in that season's 4m Festival novice chase) running for me, all 5 places e/w.
Fingers crossed.