Good stuff Peanuts. The dudes price will shorten after it romps up tomorrow. T43 best price 20-1 now......................wil wait on that one till nrnb 5 or 6 places. 34-1 (4 places) looking good so far for the dude.
Good stuff Peanuts. The dudes price will shorten after it romps up tomorrow. T43 best price 20-1 now......................wil wait on that one till nrnb 5 or 6 places. 34-1 (4 places) looking good so far for the dude.
Cheers Abs.........astute of you to get on early. Nice one. Not bothered from a stat-perspective how he runs at Haydock (Saturday) but no doubt that if he were to win he'd shorten to clear fav for the GN and, as a confirmed e/w book-builder for the GN and having paid the price of dithering on him so far, couldn't stand the prospect of a gap down to 16/1 or shorter. Actually, aside from Neptune Collonges in 2012, in 5 of the last 7 GNs, one of the paying places was filled by a horse that ran moderately in the preceding GNT: T43: 10th (43L) & 3rd (2013) Hello Bud: 8th (47L) & 5th (2010) Mon Mome: 7th (42L) & Won (2009) Bewleys Berry: PU & 5th (2008) Philson Run 8th (34L) & 4th (2007) It's the run as much as the result that is important.
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM seems to be attracting money, maybe because Timeform rates it very well weighted. So does my model. 50/1 all gone and if you are prepared to trust my model (don't have time to set out the analysis now I'm afraid) and that the ground will dry out to be Good-to-Soft or better by 5 April (he would not want it softer than GS), I strongly urge taking the 40/1 e/w with BetVictor (5 places & Non Runner Free Bet - stakes refunded as credit for future bets) as Vic is now top-price. Obviously fitness is the big question since he's run only once since long lay off after running creditably as 8y-o in 2012 GN with 10.12. Has been allotted 10.03 this time. Most unlikely that Henderson would let him run unless fully fit.
Strewth. Shakalakaboomboom is now as short as 22/1. Betvic 28/1. Only 1 firm still at 40/1, Sportingbet (5 places). T43 now clear or co-fav with many at 16/1. ...........is that you moving the market Len\'s_little_girl?
Have to say that, positive though I am on Shaka, I would not back him without NRNB or NRFB as there has to be a chance of a setback during his preps after only 1 return run so far (not so worried about being 66th in the weights as he should get in judging by previous rates of defections). I simply haven't had the time to set out his stat analysis today but will do so in the morning. In short, he should get onto the slip with a winning profile on Good-to-Soft or better but, unless he does something special in his remaining preps, is likely to have place potential at best on Soft~Heavy and for sure there would be others with better profiles on S/H, in addition to T43 and the Dude. Anyone an amateur meteorologist?
Strewth. Shakalakaboomboom is now as short as 22/1. Betvic 28/1. Only 1 firm still at 40/1, Sportingbet (5 places). T43 now clear or co-fav with many at 16/1. ...........is that you moving the market Len\'s_little_girl?
It could just be PM that your selections are, quite rightly, feared by the industry ;-)
Or that one or more of them are Pricewise selections in tomorrow's pullout.
Strewth. Shakalakaboomboom is now as short as 22/1. Betvic 28/1. Only 1 firm still at 40/1, Sportingbet (5 places). T43 now clear or co-fav with many at 16/1. ...........is that you moving the market Len\'s_little_girl?
Or that one or more of them are Pricewise selections in tomorrow's pullout.
Strewth. Shakalakaboomboom is now as short as 22/1. Betvic 28/1. Only 1 firm still at 40/1, Sportingbet (5 places). T43 now clear or co-fav with many at 16/1. ...........is that you moving the market Len\'s_little_girl?
Strewth. Shakalakaboomboom is now as short as 22/1. Betvic 28/1. Only 1 firm still at 40/1, Sportingbet (5 places). T43 now clear or co-fav with many at 16/1. ...........is that you moving the market Len\'s_little_girl?
I wish! ... Although I got him at 50s too
Well done. Delighted you took the hints. Fingers crossed.
Oh fug sake so shakalaka only 28s now? i dont have a sporting bet account... let me go and have a look.
Steady Curb It. He's not guaranteed to be a selection by the model - he was a value choice at 40-50/1 (NRFB from BetVic) but his preps are crucial and he would much prefer it better than Soft. I would be nervous about backing him without NRFB or NRNB unless you're OK with a 40/1 shot not even lining up. About to post his stat analysis.
Strewth. Shakalakaboomboom is now as short as 22/1. Betvic 28/1. Only 1 firm still at 40/1, Sportingbet (5 places). T43 now clear or co-fav with many at 16/1. ...........is that you moving the market Len\'s_little_girl?
It could just be PM that your selections are, quite rightly, feared by the industry ;-)
Or that one or more of them are Pricewise selections in tomorrow's pullout.
You were right AA (as you knew).....on both counts of course ;o)
OK. Well, I have mixed feelings this morning. Annoyed that Pricewise has stolen my thunder on Shaka and done in the price in for him and T43. On the other hand, personally, I'm relieved to have got my money down beforehand and it's always nice to think that PW sees things similarly to my model....not that that amounts to a hill of beans if they don't deliver of course.
Many apologies that time constraints prevented me setting out Shaka's stat analysis yesterday and I hope Len\'s_little_girl wasn't the only one to act on my earlier hints. He does need a further prep but if he comes through that sound and lines up at Aintree on 5 April, he has a winning profile on GS or better (place potential on Soft~Heavy). I haven't paid to read PW's rationale for tipping him but here's why my model rates the chances of a horse that has had only one race in the last 668 days - and that a 2 mile “Bumper for Jumpers” race on the Polytrack at Kempton in which he finished 6th.
(Subject to satisfactory Preps): Winning Candiate on Good or Good-to-Soft / Place potential on Soft • Twice negotiated the GN fences with aplomb:
7th (26L) over an inadequate 2.75m in the 2011 Topham – comfortably the fastest-run renewal since the distance was shortened in 2001. He was in touch until late when one-paced but jumped well. As an 8y-o travelled and jumped impressively, up with the pace, in the 2012 GN, running out of gas after 2 out but plugging on to finish an anonymous 9th but a respectable 28L behind the winner. Stamina typically improves with age and there are 2 recent precedents for 8y-os going well but not getting home in the GN, yet returning to win it – in both cases with more weight: Mon Mome: 10th (58L) in 2008, having travelled and jumped well in mid div (never able to get into contention) with 10.11 as an 8y-o, won it in 2009 with 11.00
Hedgehunter: Fell at the last in 2004, having made the running with 10.12 until running out of gas, won it in 2005 with 11.01
Shaka’s due to carry just 10.03 - 9lbs lower than his 2012 GN run (OR 9 lbs lower also) and the same weight carried to victory last year by Aurora’s Encore (another rickets by the handicapper perhaps?) Of course, unlike these 2, Shaka has been injured in between his GN attempts and everything will depend upon his fitness come 5th April; but, again, there are interesting precedents: Miinnehoma (1994) and Royal Athlete (1995) both won after having had their first run (after more than a year’s absence through injury) in the preceding March and January respectively,
They did so off Official Ratings 4lbs and 6lbs lower (respectively) than before injury. Admittedly, Shaka’s absence has been 20 months but his 2014 GN mark has been dropped 9lbs.
Miinnehoma and Royal Athlete were unproven over the GN course. Mely Moss (close 2nd in the 2000 GN) and Oscar Time (4th last year) remind us that horses with proven form over the GN course typically come alive when returning there, notwithstanding injury interruptions in the meantime.
• Other stats are good:
Consistency in 3m+ chases is a key strength with an 80% Strike Rate (wins & near misses) – his 9th in the 2012 GN was the first occasion he had been unplaced in 6 chases and hurdles at 3m+
Victories include a Grade 3 over 3.25m at Cheltenham (finishing strongly up the hill to beat the recent conqueror of Big Bucks, Knockara Beau) and an impressively gutsy win in a big field at the Punchestown Festival in 2011. Close 2nd (2.5L) to Calgary Bay in the 2012 (strong-pace) renewal of the “Great Yorkshire” (aka Sky Bet) Chase off a then career high mark of 144 (OR is 140 for the 2014 GN)
No F, UR or PU in 13 runs over obstacles
10 year old - perfect
• Pedigree supports the view that he should stay the GN trip as a 10 year-old and with a reasonable weight. His sire is Anshan which, despite being a miler, fathered some decent staying chasers (including McKelvey, close 2nd in the 2007 GN) and his dam-sire is Supreme Leader – many good staying chasers among his progeny, including Supreme Glory (2nd 2003 GN) and What’s Up Boys (2nd 2002 GN).
• With Triolo d’Alene likely to run, Shaka may or may not be Geraghty’s choice of ride but it wouldn’t be the first time in recent years that a yard’s “lesser runner” has come up trumps in the GN - Carl Lllewellyn chose Beau (UR) over Bindaree (winner in 2002) and Royal Athlete (winner in 1995) was, at best, the 4th string of Jenny Pitman’s 6 runners (winning jockey, Jason Titley, hardly had another ride for Mrs P). All of Henderson’s jockies are highly competent and Shaka is a straightforward type.
• The critical issue (obviously) is his fitness. His recent return from his long lay off (6L behind winner, travelling well) over an inadequate 2m at Kempton was fine but he must follow up with at least 1, preferably (definitely if he is to have place potential on Soft) 2 preps before the Big Day. He is due to run this weekend and a lot of eyes will be watching him. It’s important that he goes nicely though he doesn’t have to win.
It’s pretty much inconceivable that Henderson would run him if he’s not happy that he’s fit enough, hence the recommendation last night to go for NRFB with BetVictor when he was still 40/1. Can’t recommend whether to back him now or not. If I didn’t have my money down already, I would probably wait on his preps now that Pricewise has moved the market……or was it Len\'s_little_girl after all? ;o)
Long Run runs this afternoon at Kelso in a Class 2 3.25m chase vs 3 rivals. Won't make a meaningful difference to his GN chances, which (carrying 11.09) are very moderate indeed on the stats.
The Dude won't run in the GNT on Saturday after a dirty scope. Trainer says not a major problem and would stand every chance of running in a week's time. Does need a prep before the big day (hasn't raced since mid-December) and presumably that remains the intention as ground won't be an issue for him. In fact, most valuable preps (statistically), especially if it were to be a Sft~Hvy GN, are between 14 and 35 days prior (depending on horse's other stats) so, from model's perspective, could work to his advantage. On the other hand, failure to have one at all could relegate him to strong place potential rather than winning candidate, depending on how others shape up.
Hi Peanuts, can you give me more detail on Long Run's chances, as he doesnt fit with your model, but has been one of my favourites for a few years and i think is still a class act that is maybe lacking a bit of a kick now.
Hi Peanuts, can you give me more detail on Long Run's chances, as he doesnt fit with your model, but has been one of my favourites for a few years and i think is still a class act that is maybe lacking a bit of a kick now.
Long Run has just won a minor event at Kelso. Beat the useful Knockara Beau 6 lengths. If aimed at the National he'd be a fascinating contender.
Peanuts where does Chance Du Roy come in your stat ? His last run was dreadful though .
Don't worry about his last run NSS. He is a real hot and cold performer. ...and don't think he's not of serious interest from my model's perspective because I haven't mentioned him post-weights. CdR is very much on the radar screen and I'm keeping a beady eye on the decs (tomorrow morning) for Ascot on Saturday (he is entered in a 3m handicap). Hobbs has sometimes taken his GN runners to Aintree without a prep (not a good idea stats-wise). CdR definitely needs one with only 2 runs this season but his Becher win means that (from the model's perspective) he doesn't have to win or go close in his prep - just have one (Sat will do but a fortnight later would be better) and, importantly, don't tip up (has only done so once in 31 runs over obstacles so should be OK). 10.06 is perfect weight but at the upper limit for his winning chance (on his ground) and he needs Tidal Bay to run to keep it there (that is the intention, though it was last year when TB was scratched). He would not want it Soft (he handles the ground but there is a stamina issue on the stats without form at 3.5m+. Winners of all 5 Soft or Heavy GNs (time-based going) had solid form at 3.5m+, as did all that finished <4L of them, excepting Durham Edition in 1988 who was grossly flattered on distance by virtue of Rhyme n Reason's mishap at Bechers. I haven't mentioned CdR yet because this is shaping up to be an exceptionally competitive GN and, with a lot of moving parts (not least the weather), I don't want to commit too early on definite recommendations of runners that wouldn't at least have strong place potential on all ground. T43 and the Dude may not end up being the top selections but they have the requisite profile to be winners on any ground (assuming they both get a satisfactory prep) and Shakalakaboomboom was a value proposition given the significant drop in weight (not that CdR isn't at 40/1 - even better when he was 100+ on Betfair of course) who would also much prefer GS or better but, unlike CdR, would rate as place potential if it were Soft (all subject to satisfactory prep). TBH, I simply haven't had the time yet to post a list of radar screen candidates and what ground they would need, which I will do at some stage in the next couple of weeks. So, all I can say is: keep that ticket safe (I've backed him aswell, happily at silly prices on Betfair) and watch this space.
Hi Peanuts, can you give me more detail on Long Run's chances, as he doesnt fit with your model, but has been one of my favourites for a few years and i think is still a class act that is maybe lacking a bit of a kick now.
Don't get me wrong Mortimerwasgod, he's still a class act and won nicely enough up at Kelso (put in one or two skewy jumps but maybe something amiss with the surface there because Knockara Beau slipped badly on the flat). TBH, I was a too dismissive saying his GN chances are "very moderate indeed". That's cobblers. Despite a modest season, he still has an amazing CV and a Win & Place Ratio of 83.3% in 18 chases (was 100% until this season). He certainly has the stat-profile to run a big race but, obviously, it's a big, big ask to carry 11.09 in the GN. Clearly the Waley-Cohen family think that he'll get the trip but, purely from a stats perspective, his profile is missing one key ingredient for a horse allotted 11.09 to lift him from minor place potential (which he has on ground better than Soft) to winning candidate. No horse from 1988 onwards (on any ground) has carried more than 11.01 to finish 1st~3rd in the GN that didn't have solid form at a minimum of 3.5m at Cheltenham or 3.75m+ elsewhere or having run creditably in a prior GN with 11.01+. Only 5 horses carried more than 11.06 to do so (none of them winning of course) and all had form at 3.75m+ (4 of them at 4m+). My model may have this wrong (it's had to settle for runner up in the last 3 GNs after all) but, as things stand, it rates Long Run, on GS or better, as the potential for a strong run but no cigar. But don't let my musings put you off (I'm sure you won't). Best of luck.
Hi Peanuts, can you give me more detail on Long Run's chances, as he doesnt fit with your model, but has been one of my favourites for a few years and i think is still a class act that is maybe lacking a bit of a kick now.
Don't get me wrong Mortimerwasgod, he's still a class act and won nicely enough up at Kelso (put in one or two skewy jumps but maybe something amiss with the surface there because Knockara Beau slipped badly on the flat). TBH, I was a too dismissive saying his GN chances are "very moderate indeed". That's cobblers. Despite a modest season, he still has an amazing CV and a Win & Place Ratio of 83.3% in 18 chases (was 100% until this season). He certainly has the stat-profile to run a big race but, obviously, it's a big, big ask to carry 11.09 in the GN. Clearly the Waley-Cohen family think that he'll get the trip but, purely from a stats perspective, his profile is missing one key ingredient for a horse allotted 11.09 to lift him from minor place potential (which he has on ground better than Soft) to winning candidate. No horse from 1988 onwards (on any ground) has carried more than 11.01 to finish 1st~3rd in the GN that didn't have solid form at a minimum of 3.5m at Cheltenham or 3.75m+ elsewhere or having run creditably in a prior GN with 11.01+. Only 5 horses carried more than 11.06 to do so (none of them winning of course) and all had form at 3.75m+ (4 of them at 4m+). My model may have this wrong (it's had to settle for runner up in the last 3 GNs after all) but, as things stand, it rates Long Run, on GS or better, as the potential for a strong run but no cigar. But don't let my musings put you off (I'm sure you won't). Best of luck.
Stamina will be his undoing. If 3 miles would be a very possible winner.
Comments
The dudes price will shorten after it romps up tomorrow.
T43 best price 20-1 now......................wil wait on that one till nrnb 5 or 6 places.
34-1 (4 places) looking good so far for the dude.
Not bothered from a stat-perspective how he runs at Haydock (Saturday) but no doubt that if he were to win he'd shorten to clear fav for the GN and, as a confirmed e/w book-builder for the GN and having paid the price of dithering on him so far, couldn't stand the prospect of a gap down to 16/1 or shorter.
Actually, aside from Neptune Collonges in 2012, in 5 of the last 7 GNs, one of the paying places was filled by a horse that ran moderately in the preceding GNT:
T43: 10th (43L) & 3rd (2013)
Hello Bud: 8th (47L) & 5th (2010)
Mon Mome: 7th (42L) & Won (2009)
Bewleys Berry: PU & 5th (2008)
Philson Run 8th (34L) & 4th (2007)
It's the run as much as the result that is important.
So does my model.
50/1 all gone and if you are prepared to trust my model (don't have time to set out the analysis now I'm afraid) and that the ground will dry out to be Good-to-Soft or better by 5 April (he would not want it softer than GS), I strongly urge taking the 40/1 e/w with BetVictor (5 places & Non Runner Free Bet - stakes refunded as credit for future bets) as Vic is now top-price. Obviously fitness is the big question since he's run only once since long lay off after running creditably as 8y-o in 2012 GN with 10.12. Has been allotted 10.03 this time.
Most unlikely that Henderson would let him run unless fully fit.
TEAFORTHREE E/W 20/1 BetVictor NRFB and 5 places.
MONBEG DUDE E/W 20/1 Bet365 5 places.
Thanks Peanuts.
Shakalakaboomboom is now as short as 22/1. Betvic 28/1. Only 1 firm still at 40/1, Sportingbet (5 places).
T43 now clear or co-fav with many at 16/1.
...........is that you moving the market Len\'s_little_girl?
Have to say that, positive though I am on Shaka, I would not back him without NRNB or NRFB as there has to be a chance of a setback during his preps after only 1 return run so far (not so worried about being 66th in the weights as he should get in judging by previous rates of defections).
I simply haven't had the time to set out his stat analysis today but will do so in the morning.
In short, he should get onto the slip with a winning profile on Good-to-Soft or better but, unless he does something special in his remaining preps, is likely to have place potential at best on Soft~Heavy and for sure there would be others with better profiles on S/H, in addition to T43 and the Dude.
Anyone an amateur meteorologist?
Or that one or more of them are Pricewise selections in tomorrow's pullout.
And Jonjo confirmed Burton has had a wind op ;-)
I would be nervous about backing him without NRFB or NRNB unless you're OK with a 40/1 shot not even lining up.
About to post his stat analysis.
thank you.
I see he's 33 on Ladbrokes but only up to 4 places.
I love this time of year and still got two months to go!!
OK. Well, I have mixed feelings this morning. Annoyed that Pricewise has stolen my thunder on Shaka and done in the price in for him and T43. On the other hand, personally, I'm relieved to have got my money down beforehand and it's always nice to think that PW sees things similarly to my model....not that that amounts to a hill of beans if they don't deliver of course.
Many apologies that time constraints prevented me setting out Shaka's stat analysis yesterday and I hope Len\'s_little_girl wasn't the only one to act on my earlier hints. He does need a further prep but if he comes through that sound and lines up at Aintree on 5 April, he has a winning profile on GS or better (place potential on Soft~Heavy). I haven't paid to read PW's rationale for tipping him but here's why my model rates the chances of a horse that has had only one race in the last 668 days - and that a 2 mile “Bumper for Jumpers” race on the Polytrack at Kempton in which he finished 6th.
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (40/1 Paddy Power [5 e/w places], 28/1 BetVic [5 places & NRFB]
(Subject to satisfactory Preps): Winning Candiate on Good or Good-to-Soft / Place potential on Soft
• Twice negotiated the GN fences with aplomb:
7th (26L) over an inadequate 2.75m in the 2011 Topham – comfortably the fastest-run renewal since the distance was shortened in 2001. He was in touch until late when one-paced but jumped well.
As an 8y-o travelled and jumped impressively, up with the pace, in the 2012 GN, running out of gas after 2 out but plugging on to finish an anonymous 9th but a respectable 28L behind the winner.
Stamina typically improves with age and there are 2 recent precedents for 8y-os going well but not getting home in the GN, yet returning to win it – in both cases with more weight:
Mon Mome: 10th (58L) in 2008, having travelled and jumped well in mid div (never able to get into contention) with 10.11 as an 8y-o, won it in 2009 with 11.00
Hedgehunter: Fell at the last in 2004, having made the running with 10.12 until running out of gas, won it in 2005 with 11.01
Shaka’s due to carry just 10.03 - 9lbs lower than his 2012 GN run (OR 9 lbs lower also) and the same weight carried to victory last year by Aurora’s Encore (another rickets by the handicapper perhaps?)
Of course, unlike these 2, Shaka has been injured in between his GN attempts and everything will depend upon his fitness come 5th April; but, again, there are interesting precedents:
Miinnehoma (1994) and Royal Athlete (1995) both won after having had their first run (after more than a year’s absence through injury) in the preceding March and January respectively,
They did so off Official Ratings 4lbs and 6lbs lower (respectively) than before injury. Admittedly, Shaka’s absence has been 20 months but his 2014 GN mark has been dropped 9lbs.
Miinnehoma and Royal Athlete were unproven over the GN course. Mely Moss (close 2nd in the 2000 GN) and Oscar Time (4th last year) remind us that horses with proven form over the GN course typically come alive when returning there, notwithstanding injury interruptions in the meantime.
• Other stats are good:
Consistency in 3m+ chases is a key strength with an 80% Strike Rate (wins & near misses) – his 9th in the 2012 GN was the first occasion he had been unplaced in 6 chases and hurdles at 3m+
Victories include a Grade 3 over 3.25m at Cheltenham (finishing strongly up the hill to beat the recent conqueror of Big Bucks, Knockara Beau) and an impressively gutsy win in a big field at the Punchestown Festival in 2011. Close 2nd (2.5L) to Calgary Bay in the 2012 (strong-pace) renewal of the “Great Yorkshire” (aka Sky Bet) Chase off a then career high mark of 144 (OR is 140 for the 2014 GN)
No F, UR or PU in 13 runs over obstacles
10 year old - perfect
• Pedigree supports the view that he should stay the GN trip as a 10 year-old and with a reasonable weight. His sire is Anshan which, despite being a miler, fathered some decent staying chasers (including McKelvey, close 2nd in the 2007 GN) and his dam-sire is Supreme Leader – many good staying chasers among his progeny, including Supreme Glory (2nd 2003 GN) and What’s Up Boys (2nd 2002 GN).
• With Triolo d’Alene likely to run, Shaka may or may not be Geraghty’s choice of ride but it wouldn’t be the first time in recent years that a yard’s “lesser runner” has come up trumps in the GN - Carl Lllewellyn chose Beau (UR) over Bindaree (winner in 2002) and Royal Athlete (winner in 1995) was, at best, the 4th string of Jenny Pitman’s 6 runners (winning jockey, Jason Titley, hardly had another ride for Mrs P). All of Henderson’s jockies are highly competent and Shaka is a straightforward type.
• The critical issue (obviously) is his fitness. His recent return from his long lay off (6L behind winner, travelling well) over an inadequate 2m at Kempton was fine but he must follow up with at least 1, preferably (definitely if he is to have place potential on Soft) 2 preps before the Big Day. He is due to run this weekend and a lot of eyes will be watching him. It’s important that he goes nicely though he doesn’t have to win.
It’s pretty much inconceivable that Henderson would run him if he’s not happy that he’s fit enough, hence the recommendation last night to go for NRFB with BetVictor when he was still 40/1. Can’t recommend whether to back him now or not. If I didn’t have my money down already, I would probably wait on his preps now that Pricewise has moved the market……or was it Len\'s_little_girl after all? ;o)
Won't make a meaningful difference to his GN chances, which (carrying 11.09) are very moderate indeed on the stats.
The Dude won't run in the GNT on Saturday after a dirty scope. Trainer says not a major problem and would stand every chance of running in a week's time. Does need a prep before the big day (hasn't raced since mid-December) and presumably that remains the intention as ground won't be an issue for him. In fact, most valuable preps (statistically), especially if it were to be a Sft~Hvy GN, are between 14 and 35 days prior (depending on horse's other stats) so, from model's perspective, could work to his advantage.
On the other hand, failure to have one at all could relegate him to strong place potential rather than winning candidate, depending on how others shape up.
If aimed at the National he'd be a fascinating contender.
...and don't think he's not of serious interest from my model's perspective because I haven't mentioned him post-weights.
CdR is very much on the radar screen and I'm keeping a beady eye on the decs (tomorrow morning) for Ascot on Saturday (he is entered in a 3m handicap).
Hobbs has sometimes taken his GN runners to Aintree without a prep (not a good idea stats-wise). CdR definitely needs one with only 2 runs this season but his Becher win means that (from the model's perspective) he doesn't have to win or go close in his prep - just have one (Sat will do but a fortnight later would be better) and, importantly, don't tip up (has only done so once in 31 runs over obstacles so should be OK).
10.06 is perfect weight but at the upper limit for his winning chance (on his ground) and he needs Tidal Bay to run to keep it there (that is the intention, though it was last year when TB was scratched).
He would not want it Soft (he handles the ground but there is a stamina issue on the stats without form at 3.5m+. Winners of all 5 Soft or Heavy GNs (time-based going) had solid form at 3.5m+, as did all that finished <4L of them, excepting Durham Edition in 1988 who was grossly flattered on distance by virtue of Rhyme n Reason's mishap at Bechers.
I haven't mentioned CdR yet because this is shaping up to be an exceptionally competitive GN and, with a lot of moving parts (not least the weather), I don't want to commit too early on definite recommendations of runners that wouldn't at least have strong place potential on all ground.
T43 and the Dude may not end up being the top selections but they have the requisite profile to be winners on any ground (assuming they both get a satisfactory prep) and Shakalakaboomboom was a value proposition given the significant drop in weight (not that CdR isn't at 40/1 - even better when he was 100+ on Betfair of course) who would also much prefer GS or better but, unlike CdR, would rate as place potential if it were Soft (all subject to satisfactory prep).
TBH, I simply haven't had the time yet to post a list of radar screen candidates and what ground they would need, which I will do at some stage in the next couple of weeks.
So, all I can say is: keep that ticket safe (I've backed him aswell, happily at silly prices on Betfair) and watch this space.
TBH, I was a too dismissive saying his GN chances are "very moderate indeed". That's cobblers. Despite a modest season, he still has an amazing CV and a Win & Place Ratio of 83.3% in 18 chases (was 100% until this season). He certainly has the stat-profile to run a big race but, obviously, it's a big, big ask to carry 11.09 in the GN.
Clearly the Waley-Cohen family think that he'll get the trip but, purely from a stats perspective, his profile is missing one key ingredient for a horse allotted 11.09 to lift him from minor place potential (which he has on ground better than Soft) to winning candidate.
No horse from 1988 onwards (on any ground) has carried more than 11.01 to finish 1st~3rd in the GN that didn't have solid form at a minimum of 3.5m at Cheltenham or 3.75m+ elsewhere or having run creditably in a prior GN with 11.01+.
Only 5 horses carried more than 11.06 to do so (none of them winning of course) and all had form at 3.75m+ (4 of them at 4m+).
My model may have this wrong (it's had to settle for runner up in the last 3 GNs after all) but, as things stand, it rates Long Run, on GS or better, as the potential for a strong run but no cigar.
But don't let my musings put you off (I'm sure you won't). Best of luck.