Mate last couple if years have been close but I am brimming with confidence in you this year
Too kind.......... I shall endeavour to oblige..............not least cos Mrs Molloy's got her eyes on the "Jewels Of The Med" cruise brochures again :0(
Mate last couple if years have been close but I am brimming with confidence in you this year
Too kind.......... I shall endeavour to oblige..............not least cos Mrs Molloy's got her eyes on the "Jewels Of The Med" cruise brochures again :0(
Or PM you could treat her to one of these straight after the race:
Unfortunately you can't now NSS. It was only 50/1 with Ladbrokes and I suspect they cut it even before the paper went to print!
Now had you followed this poster's hint on Tuesday re the horse's wind op you would have been able to avail yourself of that price. Or at even bigger prices from my comment back in December:
"As you have so clearly stated PM, my cynicism with regards to Jonjo's horses is limitless. For that reason I wouldn't give up on Burton Port. He was moved by Trevor Hemmings from Nicky Henderson and now occupies Albertas Run's old box and that in itself is a hint that he felt Jonjo was capable of doing something Henderson wouldn'tcouldn't. BP's dropping mark will help the cause!"
But with my record in the GN you are far better following PM ;-)
If he can get his nose in front (or go close) in a prep, I'll be joining you AA (unless its Soft~Heavy for the GN) but it's a binary outcome and having had an ante-post on him for the 2012 GN wiped off the board, I'm not inclined to take the plunge until he does the business, despite the no doubt much shorter price. Personally, I'm not convinced his 4 very poor runs this season were all (or even largely) down to a wind problem. We shall see.
If he can get his nose in front (or go close) in a prep, I'll be joining you AA (unless its Soft~Heavy for the GN) but it's a binary outcome and having had an ante-post on him for the 2012 GN wiped off the board, I'm not inclined to take the plunge until he does the business. Personally, I'm not convinced his 4 very poor runs this season were all (or even largely) down to a wind problem. We shall see.
Neither am I but it gives Jonjo a ready made excuse ;-)
It's about time these wind ops are made known on the Racecard - In the opener at Fakenham today Powertakeoff wins having previously enjoyed form figures of 08800-708577. It's backed from 6/1 to 2/1 and afterwards "job jockey" Paddy Brennan explains that trainer Henry Oliver thought it would go close due to the wind op. That info really should be in the public domain.
Rigadin De Beauhchene wins after almost a year off by a country mile. It is owned by Andrew Wiles who is senior partner at Chancllors Lea Brewer solicitors in Bexleyheath.
T43 caught the eye but CdR went just fine NSS. 8L 4th. Mission accomplished as regards prep. Will post at greater length tomorrow but that's a nice trio.
[OK, it’s an official “hint” Len\’s_little_girl……..but please read on] I said previously that this is shaping up to be an exceptionally competitive GN. That has nothing to do with highest and lowest Official Ratings of likely runners. It reflects the fact that, according to my model, more than the usual number of runners MAY attain, on either Good ground (and variants) or Soft (and variants) the absolute stat-score typical of a GN winner. The recommendations to back T43 and the Dude as soon as the weights were announced were made because they were (at that stage and, indeed, they remain so currently) the only 2 very likely to have a winning stat-profile on any ground. That may or may not be the case come 5 April but T43’s excellent prep yesterday means that he now has (regardless of the quality or even occasion of another prep) an outstanding winning chance on any ground (according to my model). Rightly, it was T43's 2nd (neck) in the 3m Listed handicap at Ascot on Soft (Hvy) that caught the eye among GN entrants on Saturday and most bookies promptly cut him to 12/1 clear fav. However, a creditable 8L behind him was the under-rated Chance Du Roy. He travelled slightly on and off the bridle which is not unusual for him (though, significantly, he typically travels well when tackling the GN fences, over which he seems to get into a good rhythm), and the Racing Post analyst records that, yesterday, he “didn't get home”, having led them entering the straight before yielding to the front two. To my eyes, while he couldn't go with the front two when they quickened 2 furlongs out, he kept on one-paced and was only caught for 3rd because Houblon Des Obeaux was the quickest-finishing of the lot…….but you pays ya money, you takes ya choice. In any event, it was sufficient to confirm him as having a winning stat-profile PROVIDED it is GS or better come 5 April. Tipped off by northstandsteve, who astutely picked him out as a GN candidate in a 2m4f chase on “Chepstow Heavy” over 2 years ago, before he’d ever visited Aintree, he was my first ante-post bet on the 2014 GN (now at an average of 135 on the Betfair Win market) after he won the Becher Chase over the GN fences in December (first post on this thread). Despite the confirmation yesterday of his winning GN profile if he gets his ground, though I’m sorely tempted to take the plunge on him at 40/1 (top-priced with BetVic [NRFB and 5 places]), I’m going to stick just with that Betfair position (he’s now 55 offered on Betfair) simply because of the key variables for him (weather, the evolving stat-profiles of others and weight). Just as important, with Swing Bill last year in mind, I really want to have him for 6th e/w place and I’m willing to gamble that he’s sufficiently low in punters’ and bookies ratings that he’ll still be at a nice price when Victor finally offers us 6 (I’d rather have him at 33s for 6 places than 40s for 5). My Betfair win position is something of a hedge of course. Nonetheless, if any of you are amateur meteorologists and are happy to take him (and the variables) on now at 40/1, here are the reasons to be positive:
CHANCE DU ROY (40/1 BetVic [NRFB and 5 places]) • Is demonstrably out of the same mold as the likes of Amberleigh House, Swing Bill and Always Waining….he loves racing over the GN fences. But which is he most like? The GN winner and placed Amberleigh House, the GN and Becher placed Swing Bill or the Aintree-loving but simply doesn’t get the GN trip Always Waining? Well, he’s already achieved what the multiple Topham winner Always Waining couldn’t – a win in the 3.25m Becher Chase and he did so on Soft. He also carried 11.07 (giving 10lbs to the winner) to finish 4.5L runner up to Always Waining in the 2012 Topham on Good (run at a decent clip), off a mark of OR148. If he lines up in the 2014 GN, he’ll have a mark of OR143. In his other runs over the fences (OR150 in the 2012 Grand Sefton on Heavy), he was travelling well with the leader and eventual winner, Little Josh, when tipping up 5 out and (OR146 carrying 11.07) was a staying-on 25L behind Triolo d’Alene (giving the winner a stone – he will receive a stone from him in the GN) in the 2013 Topham on GS. • His stat profile is rather similar to that of Amberleigh House immediately prior to his 3rd in the 2003 GN on Good ground with 10.04 (at which stage, his Becher victory on Soft with 10.09, was his furthest chase win). In fact, like CdR, AH also had stamina doubts - other than when BD at the 8th in the farcical 2001 GN, AH’s only previous attempt a longer trip (29f on Good at Haydock) had been a very remote 15th of 17.
• CdR’s Strike rate (wins and near-misses) at 3m+ is a modest 20% (1/5). AH’s was 22% (2/9) prior to the 2003 GN and two GN winners had similar or worse Strike Rates – Papillon (1/11 prior to winning 2000 GN) and Bindaree (2/10 prior to winning 2002 GN). However, notably both of these GNs were on Good ground, as were those when AH was placed and then victorious (2004).
• CdR ticks a very interesting stat-box, which only 2 GN runners in my 300+ database of runners since 1988 have ticked. He has a strong, favourable bias to “Spring Ground” (defined as races run, on any going, between the start of the Cheltenham Festival and, precisely, 2 months later [i.e. with the GN run approx. in the middle]). CdR has a Strike Rate (wins and near misses) of 66.7% (4/6) in chases during that period, compared to one of 20% (3/15) in chases at other times of the season. In other words, his Becher chase win came at a time of year that he wouldn’t ordinarily be firing. The 2 other horses in the database with a similar disparity in favour of Spring Ground? Seagram (winner of the 1991 GN) and Aurora’s Encore (winner 2013).
• Despite winning on Soft, he doesn’t have the stats to do so in the GN. He handles a testing surface well but it would be a big stamina doubt for him at 4m3f. All winners (and all placed <10L of them) of the 5 Soft or Heavy ground GNs since 1988 (time-based going and excl. the 2001 race) had solid form at 3.5m+. CdR is untried at further than 3.25m but that is enough to leave him with just outside place potential on Soft~Heavy, particularly with proven stayers in the field. The truth is that Good-to-Soft or easy side of Good would probably suit him best.
• Other stats are fine. A 10 year-old and 3 runs in the season, the last being 49 days (max) prior.
• He is due to carry 10.06 and would not want any rise (i.e. he would strongly want Tidal Bay to line up as intended). His chances would drop to strong place potential from winning candidate on GS~better if he were to carry even 1lb more.
So there it is. Chance Du Roy is flashing away very brightly on my 2014 GN radar screen…..but then so are one or two others.
Your analysis terrifies me but it is a fantastic labour of love/obsession, and it is nice to watch the race and understand what the horses and the riders are playing at which helps stop panic when your horse is down at 7th because the jokey is saving him and going slow and steady.
From how I understand your stat model monbeg dude and teaforthree are the standouts but the money makers are the swing bills in the list. Keep it coming mate bloody love this thread
Your analysis terrifies me but it is a fantastic labour of love/obsession, and it is nice to watch the race and understand what the horses and the riders are playing at which helps stop panic when your horse is down at 7th because the jokey is saving him and going slow and steady.
From how I understand your stat model monbeg dude and teaforthree are the standouts but the money makers are the swing bills in the list. Keep it coming mate bloody love this thread
Cheers Carter.
T43
Now has strong winning stat-profile on any ground - another prep not needed (from a stats-perspective) but trainer was (prior to Saturday) planning another and he has a speculative entry for the GC. If he does run again, obviously need him to come back safe and sound but otherwise how he runs is of no consequence (an F or UR would put a minor dent in the stats but not deny him a winning stat score). Even if not dented, he may not be the #1 selection come the big day but its inconceivable he won't be one of my model's final selections.
MONBEG DUDE
Needs to have a prep (preferably, but not essentially, on or after 1st March) and avoid tipping up. If so, his early season form, combined with his Welsh National win on Heavy is enough to give him a winning stat-profile on any ground - not as strong currently as T43's and unlikely to be so even with a strong prep. Even tipping up should only put a dent in his profile rather than deny him a winning chance but he wouldn't also want a rise in the weights. His stats can handle one or the other but both might just drop him into the strong place potential bracket, depending on how others' stats evolve.
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM
As set out in post above (Wed 12 Feb). He didn't run yesterday but is entered in a 3m handicap hurdle on what should be relatively decent ground at Donny on Wednesday.....the same day and track that Burton Port is entered in a veterans' chase. Big day for both of them!
PS As regards stand-outs vs money-makers, it's a personal preference but I scale my bets so that I'm relatively indifferent which one of the selections scores. Anything can happen in the hurly-burly of a GN and a bit of misfortune can take even a "stand-out" out of the running.
T43 and the Dude were firm selections (highly probable to have winning stat-profiles, whatever the going on 5 April) after the weights were announced (subsequently T43 has dotted his "i's" but the Dude still needs to cross a "t", though shouldn't be a problem once he's fit to race again). Shaka and CdR are flashing brightly on the radar screen and may well become firm selections but, as explained in the earlier posts, there are variables, particularly preps for Shaka and going for CdR. Also the possibility that others' stats evolve strongly to out-rate them - may or may not happen. Up to you whether to take the plunge on any of these. It's a personal thing, betting strategy. For what it's worth, I've backed T43, the Dude and Shaka 5 places e/w (Shaka also NRFB) and I have a long position on the Betfair Win market on CdR.
Maybe worth considering the final preps of the winner and some of the placed horses in last year's GN, Lincs.
Aurora's Encore (won) - 5th 53L (didn't make the frame in 7 runs in the season) T43 (3rd) - 10th 43L Oscar Time (4th) - 17th of 17 101L (didn't make the frame in 4 runs in the season) Swing Bill (6th) - 16th 58L
I don't know if CdR will win the GN or run out of gas 2 out or fall at the first but I do know that 8L 4th on Saturday was a perfectly acceptable prep from a stats-perspective and that it is a small part of a composite stat-profile that is comparable to horses that, on GS or better, have made the frame in previous GNs.
PS TBH Lincs, if it's commonly held that his Saturday run was very disappointing, I'm delighted because if and when he becomes a final selection and Vic is offering the 6th place, he should still be at a nice price. Swing Bill was still drifting on the morning of the GN.
Unfortunately you can't now NSS. It was only 50/1 with Ladbrokes and I suspect they cut it even before the paper went to print!
Now had you followed this poster's hint on Tuesday re the horse's wind op you would have been able to avail yourself of that price. Or at even bigger prices from my comment back in December:
"As you have so clearly stated PM, my cynicism with regards to Jonjo's horses is limitless. For that reason I wouldn't give up on Burton Port. He was moved by Trevor Hemmings from Nicky Henderson and now occupies Albertas Run's old box and that in itself is a hint that he felt Jonjo was capable of doing something Henderson wouldn'tcouldn't. BP's dropping mark will help the cause!"
But with my record in the GN you are far better following PM ;-)
We should find out more tomorrow when BP runs in the 3.25 Donny.
Maybe worth considering the final preps of the winner and some of the placed horses in last year's GN, Lincs.
Aurora's Encore (won) - 5th 53L (didn't make the frame in 7 runs in the season) T43 (3rd) - 10th 43L Oscar Time (4th) - 17th of 17 101L (didn't make the frame in 4 runs in the season) Swing Bill (6th) - 16th 58L
I don't know if CdR will win the GN or run out of gas 2 out or fall at the first but I do know that 8L 4th on Saturday was a perfectly acceptable prep from a stats-perspective and that it is a small part of a composite stat-profile that is comparable to horses that, on GS or better, have made the frame in previous GNs.
PS TBH Lincs, if it's commonly held that his Saturday run was very disappointing, I'm delighted because if and when he becomes a final selection and Vic is offering the 6th place, he should still be at a nice price. Swing Bill was still drifting on the morning of the GN.
great analysis & shrewd thinking Lord Peanuts .. you cunning old fox you
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I'm sure that would be acceptable ;-)
He isn't a CL subscriber is he?
Now had you followed this poster's hint on Tuesday re the horse's wind op you would have been able to avail yourself of that price. Or at even bigger prices from my comment back in December:
"As you have so clearly stated PM, my cynicism with regards to Jonjo's horses is limitless. For that reason I wouldn't give up on Burton Port. He was moved by Trevor Hemmings from Nicky Henderson and now occupies Albertas Run's old box and that in itself is a hint that he felt Jonjo was capable of doing something Henderson wouldn'tcouldn't. BP's dropping mark will help the cause!"
But with my record in the GN you are far better following PM ;-)
It's about time these wind ops are made known on the Racecard - In the opener at Fakenham today Powertakeoff wins having previously enjoyed form figures of 08800-708577. It's backed from 6/1 to 2/1 and afterwards "job jockey" Paddy Brennan explains that trainer Henry Oliver thought it would go close due to the wind op. That info really should be in the public domain.
Very nice.
CdR went well enough.
Need to put the slide rule over him again when I get the distances
Didn't see the race but pleased Cdr went ok. I have 3 anti's at present T43, Dude and Cdr
I said previously that this is shaping up to be an exceptionally competitive GN. That has nothing to do with highest and lowest Official Ratings of likely runners. It reflects the fact that, according to my model, more than the usual number of runners MAY attain, on either Good ground (and variants) or Soft (and variants) the absolute stat-score typical of a GN winner.
The recommendations to back T43 and the Dude as soon as the weights were announced were made because they were (at that stage and, indeed, they remain so currently) the only 2 very likely to have a winning stat-profile on any ground. That may or may not be the case come 5 April but T43’s excellent prep yesterday means that he now has (regardless of the quality or even occasion of another prep) an outstanding winning chance on any ground (according to my model).
Rightly, it was T43's 2nd (neck) in the 3m Listed handicap at Ascot on Soft (Hvy) that caught the eye among GN entrants on Saturday and most bookies promptly cut him to 12/1 clear fav.
However, a creditable 8L behind him was the under-rated Chance Du Roy. He travelled slightly on and off the bridle which is not unusual for him (though, significantly, he typically travels well when tackling the GN fences, over which he seems to get into a good rhythm), and the Racing Post analyst records that, yesterday, he “didn't get home”, having led them entering the straight before yielding to the front two. To my eyes, while he couldn't go with the front two when they quickened 2 furlongs out, he kept on one-paced and was only caught for 3rd because Houblon Des Obeaux was the quickest-finishing of the lot…….but you pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
In any event, it was sufficient to confirm him as having a winning stat-profile PROVIDED it is GS or better come 5 April.
Tipped off by northstandsteve, who astutely picked him out as a GN candidate in a 2m4f chase on “Chepstow Heavy” over 2 years ago, before he’d ever visited Aintree, he was my first ante-post bet on the 2014 GN (now at an average of 135 on the Betfair Win market) after he won the Becher Chase over the GN fences in December (first post on this thread). Despite the confirmation yesterday of his winning GN profile if he gets his ground, though I’m sorely tempted to take the plunge on him at 40/1 (top-priced with BetVic [NRFB and 5 places]), I’m going to stick just with that Betfair position (he’s now 55 offered on Betfair) simply because of the key variables for him (weather, the evolving stat-profiles of others and weight). Just as important, with Swing Bill last year in mind, I really want to have him for 6th e/w place and I’m willing to gamble that he’s sufficiently low in punters’ and bookies ratings that he’ll still be at a nice price when Victor finally offers us 6 (I’d rather have him at 33s for 6 places than 40s for 5). My Betfair win position is something of a hedge of course.
Nonetheless, if any of you are amateur meteorologists and are happy to take him (and the variables) on now at 40/1, here are the reasons to be positive:
CHANCE DU ROY (40/1 BetVic [NRFB and 5 places])
• Is demonstrably out of the same mold as the likes of Amberleigh House, Swing Bill and Always Waining….he loves racing over the GN fences. But which is he most like? The GN winner and placed Amberleigh House, the GN and Becher placed Swing Bill or the Aintree-loving but simply doesn’t get the GN trip Always Waining?
Well, he’s already achieved what the multiple Topham winner Always Waining couldn’t – a win in the 3.25m Becher Chase and he did so on Soft. He also carried 11.07 (giving 10lbs to the winner) to finish 4.5L runner up to Always Waining in the 2012 Topham on Good (run at a decent clip), off a mark of OR148. If he lines up in the 2014 GN, he’ll have a mark of OR143.
In his other runs over the fences (OR150 in the 2012 Grand Sefton on Heavy), he was travelling well with the leader and eventual winner, Little Josh, when tipping up 5 out and (OR146 carrying 11.07) was a staying-on 25L behind Triolo d’Alene (giving the winner a stone – he will receive a stone from him in the GN) in the 2013 Topham on GS.
• His stat profile is rather similar to that of Amberleigh House immediately prior to his 3rd in the 2003 GN on Good ground with 10.04 (at which stage, his Becher victory on Soft with 10.09, was his furthest chase win). In fact, like CdR, AH also had stamina doubts - other than when BD at the 8th in the farcical 2001 GN, AH’s only previous attempt a longer trip (29f on Good at Haydock) had been a very remote 15th of 17.
• CdR’s Strike rate (wins and near-misses) at 3m+ is a modest 20% (1/5). AH’s was 22% (2/9) prior to the 2003 GN and two GN winners had similar or worse Strike Rates – Papillon (1/11 prior to winning 2000 GN) and Bindaree (2/10 prior to winning 2002 GN). However, notably both of these GNs were on Good ground, as were those when AH was placed and then victorious (2004).
• CdR ticks a very interesting stat-box, which only 2 GN runners in my 300+ database of runners since 1988 have ticked. He has a strong, favourable bias to “Spring Ground” (defined as races run, on any going, between the start of the Cheltenham Festival and, precisely, 2 months later [i.e. with the GN run approx. in the middle]). CdR has a Strike Rate (wins and near misses) of 66.7% (4/6) in chases during that period, compared to one of 20% (3/15) in chases at other times of the season. In other words, his Becher chase win came at a time of year that he wouldn’t ordinarily be firing. The 2 other horses in the database with a similar disparity in favour of Spring Ground? Seagram (winner of the 1991 GN) and Aurora’s Encore (winner 2013).
• Despite winning on Soft, he doesn’t have the stats to do so in the GN. He handles a testing surface well but it would be a big stamina doubt for him at 4m3f. All winners (and all placed <10L of them) of the 5 Soft or Heavy ground GNs since 1988 (time-based going and excl. the 2001 race) had solid form at 3.5m+. CdR is untried at further than 3.25m but that is enough to leave him with just outside place potential on Soft~Heavy, particularly with proven stayers in the field. The truth is that Good-to-Soft or easy side of Good would probably suit him best.
• Other stats are fine. A 10 year-old and 3 runs in the season, the last being 49 days (max) prior.
• He is due to carry 10.06 and would not want any rise (i.e. he would strongly want Tidal Bay to line up as intended). His chances would drop to strong place potential from winning candidate on GS~better if he were to carry even 1lb more.
So there it is. Chance Du Roy is flashing away very brightly on my 2014 GN radar screen…..but then so are one or two others.
Your analysis terrifies me but it is a fantastic labour of love/obsession, and it is nice to watch the race and understand what the horses and the riders are playing at which helps stop panic when your horse is down at 7th because the jokey is saving him and going slow and steady.
From how I understand your stat model monbeg dude and teaforthree are the standouts but the money makers are the swing bills in the list. Keep it coming mate bloody love this thread
T43
Now has strong winning stat-profile on any ground - another prep not needed (from a stats-perspective) but trainer was (prior to Saturday) planning another and he has a speculative entry for the GC. If he does run again, obviously need him to come back safe and sound but otherwise how he runs is of no consequence (an F or UR would put a minor dent in the stats but not deny him a winning stat score). Even if not dented, he may not be the #1 selection come the big day but its inconceivable he won't be one of my model's final selections.
MONBEG DUDE
Needs to have a prep (preferably, but not essentially, on or after 1st March) and avoid tipping up. If so, his early season form, combined with his Welsh National win on Heavy is enough to give him a winning stat-profile on any ground - not as strong currently as T43's and unlikely to be so even with a strong prep. Even tipping up should only put a dent in his profile rather than deny him a winning chance but he wouldn't also want a rise in the weights. His stats can handle one or the other but both might just drop him into the strong place potential bracket, depending on how others' stats evolve.
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM
As set out in post above (Wed 12 Feb). He didn't run yesterday but is entered in a 3m handicap hurdle on what should be relatively decent ground at Donny on Wednesday.....the same day and track that Burton Port is entered in a veterans' chase. Big day for both of them!
PS As regards stand-outs vs money-makers, it's a personal preference but I scale my bets so that I'm relatively indifferent which one of the selections scores. Anything can happen in the hurly-burly of a GN and a bit of misfortune can take even a "stand-out" out of the running.
............but thanks, much appreciated.
Shaka and CdR are flashing brightly on the radar screen and may well become firm selections but, as explained in the earlier posts, there are variables, particularly preps for Shaka and going for CdR. Also the possibility that others' stats evolve strongly to out-rate them - may or may not happen.
Up to you whether to take the plunge on any of these. It's a personal thing, betting strategy.
For what it's worth, I've backed T43, the Dude and Shaka 5 places e/w (Shaka also NRFB) and I have a long position on the Betfair Win market on CdR.
Aurora's Encore (won) - 5th 53L (didn't make the frame in 7 runs in the season)
T43 (3rd) - 10th 43L
Oscar Time (4th) - 17th of 17 101L (didn't make the frame in 4 runs in the season)
Swing Bill (6th) - 16th 58L
I don't know if CdR will win the GN or run out of gas 2 out or fall at the first but I do know that 8L 4th on Saturday was a perfectly acceptable prep from a stats-perspective and that it is a small part of a composite stat-profile that is comparable to horses that, on GS or better, have made the frame in previous GNs.
PS TBH Lincs, if it's commonly held that his Saturday run was very disappointing, I'm delighted because if and when he becomes a final selection and Vic is offering the 6th place, he should still be at a nice price. Swing Bill was still drifting on the morning of the GN.
great analysis & shrewd thinking Lord Peanuts .. you cunning old fox you