That Gallop on Good ground ain't gonna do his legs much good. If he strolls round then hopefully no worries but if he gets competitive the Cheltenham Hill may do for his National chances.
That Gallop on Good ground ain't gonna do his legs much good. If he strolls round then hopefully no worries but if he gets competitive the Cheltenham Hill may do for his National chances.
Probably not the greatest GC but nice GN prep indeed for T43 - jumped a little to his right on occasion but hopefully nothing amiss. Rhyme n Reason (1988), Miinnehoma (1994) and Rough Quest (1996) all won the GN after a GC run - T43's 8th 21L today similar to Miinnehoma's 7th 19L. No GN winners since '96 have run in the prior GC but Hedgehunter was runner-up in both in 2006.
OHO's having a great season and on paper that run today makes his 11.03 weight for the GN look attractive but his Fall in the last GN (a fair way from home and the 3rd failure to complete in 3 attempts at 3.5m+) when clearly tiring and with 3lbs less suggests that they'd be well advised to head to Punchestown for another Grade 1, as Mullins seems to be thinking.
On another GN runner, an interesting question is who will pilot Tidal Bay at Aintree now that Daryl Jacob is side-lined. He can be a tricky ride and his only career tip up was over the GN fences 3 years ago. Walsh unlikely to make Aintree either (might have been outside chance Mullins may have freed him to resume the partnership but that's academic).
Midlands National today (3.50) at Uttoxeter. 4 GN contenders:
JUNIOR - 2 dismal attempts over the GN fences, no interest
WYCK HILL - impressive win in the Eider and would rubber-stamp staying credentials if going close today but most unlikely to make the cut at Aintree
PETE THE FEAT (25/1 today, 66/1 for the GN) - could elevate his GN stats to winning potential if GS or softer at Aintree (looking less and less likely) if a strong show today.
GOULANES (6/1 fav today, 66/1 for the GN) - possibly favourite today simply because of the great record David Pipe has in the race as not running well in 2 attempts at 3.5m+, though tongue-tie fitted for the first time today. If going close would give his GN stat-profile strong place potential on GS or better and would probably put himself at #67 in the weights - would just have got in in 3 of last 4 GNs.
Looks like a decent quality renewal of this famous 4.25m test in which Lord Gyllene was a creditable 2nd and Mon Mome ran prior to GN victories in 1997 and 2009 respectively and which 5 other GN placed horses since 1992 used as their final prep.
I like having an interest at a price e/w and, partly as a GN hedge (if it were to come up soft) and partly because I like the horse, with 4 paying places and 6 out of the handicap, Pete The Feat seems to me to be interesting at 28/1 (Stan James) so I've had a nibble (actually a decent bite). No stat-model behind that but he was only 4L behind when giving 15lbs to Rigadin De Beauchene in last season's Warwick National (same race 3.5L behind and giving 6lbs to Godsmejudge who, of course, was red hot last season). RdB's win in Feb's GNT puts Pete well ahead on a form line to Emperors Choice and Loch Ba at the weights today. Ran really well in the mud over 3.5m at Haydock in December with 11.08 (just got caught before the line) - 2lbs higher mark today but Harry Topper running means he's only got 10.06 to carry. Seems to perform better going LH as today and has Fehily on board. ......With my betting form this week, he'll probably UR at the first ;o)
That was a great win at Newcastle and could well follow up. Good luck. Fehily's just had has 3rd winner of the afternoon....................momentum or mean reversion when it comes to Pete The Feat?
Pipe wins it AGAIN (4th time running) with the fav Goulanes. Big move for Pete before the off - smashed into 8/1 - but another UR, having thumped one too many. They won't take him to Aintree now.
Was on the fav peanuts (small stakes), lightly raced = well handicapped. Surprised Wyck Hill faded so badly given his undoubted stamina. Don't see the winner of the big one in that field.
By the way, I reckon the Gold Cup was attritional this year. Fast pace, goodish ground, don't think T43 will have benefited from the run. (I know, we disagree) Really thought BW was gonna win but was hampered by Silviano Conti (who was trying to take out the whole field near the end) and was shocked that his gas tank emptied so quickly.
Was on the fav peanuts (small stakes), lightly raced = well handicapped. Surprised Wyck Hill faded so badly given his undoubted stamina. Don't see the winner of the big one in that field.
You're on a nice roll Abs.......I'd be better off if I slept for 364 days of the year.
By the way, I reckon the Gold Cup was attritional this year. Fast pace, goodish ground, don't think T43 will have benefited from the run. (I know, we disagree) Really thought BW was gonna win but was hampered by Silviano Conti (who was trying to take out the whole field near the end) and was shocked that his gas tank emptied so quickly.
T43 was the only one finishing in a straight line.... didn't think that was a great GC, judging by the time.
I have a feeling T43 will let a lot of people down this year. He barely got the distance last time and i think he will finish a long way behind the winner and possibly even be pulled up. Monbeg Dude is my confident selection and if the ground is soft or heavy i'm going for Mr Moonshine and Wayward Prince for second and third.
Cheers PBS, Watch that Non Runner Free Bet - there are per horse and per punter limits. Bet365 now NRNB and I would imagine Victor may go to NRNB after the forfeit stage tomorrow.
I was waiting until after today's forfeit in case of any unpleasant surprises but:
T43 and MONBEG DUDE already identified as Winning Candidates - top 2 stat-ratings on any going.
If it is better than Soft (looking pretty likely), clear 3rd best rating (also a Winning Profile) is CHANCE DU ROY (33/1 [6 places] 40/1 [5 places])
Best Place Potential if better than Soft (relative rating varies according to specific going): SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (any), GOULANES (any), LONG RUN (any), HAWKES POINT (softer than Good), TIDAL BAY (softer than Good), MOUNTAINOUS (softer than Good but may head to Fairyhouse rather than Aintree), GODSMEJUDGE (GS)
If it were Soft or Heavy, clear 3rd best are (joint) TIDAL BAY and MOUNTAINOUS (may or may not have been scratched prior to decs)
Best Place Potential on Soft~Heavy: will advise if and when Soft~Heavy looks likely.
Forfeit stage today. Among those scratched: Seabass On His Own Boston Bob Pete The Feat Well Refreshed
That leaves 73 still in. Definitely getting a run are all those weighted 10.04+. #40 is The Package. The last 4 GNs have seen #50~53 (at this stage) make the cut. #50 now is Swing Bill (the last of those with 10.01)
OK, 18 days to go - time to get serious. My GN stat-model has been working over-time on a highly competitive list of entries but, as leading candidates one-by-one have fallen by the wayside, it has come out with a decisive view as to the winning candidates for the 2014 GN. I won’t bore you with how the model works (though will happily explain if anyone is sad enough to want to know) but, in brief, utilising a database of 327 former GN runners (all winners and horses placed 1~4th and others finishing up to 30 lengths behind the winner in all GNs 1988~2007, excluding the farcical 2001 GN, and the entire fields of GNs 2008~2013) and a variety of criteria it attempts to determine those current runners with the best fit to horses winning or going close since 1988. The model is designed to improve %s in selecting horses to back. It isn’t a crystal ball of course and every year (even if successful) it needs to be tweaked to reconcile the unaccounted-for performances, the tweaks being back-tested against the entire database to maintain robustness. Someday it will crash and burn but I’m happy to keep faith with it in the meantime. I’ve been using this system for 8 GNs now and it’s done a decent job for me: it’s identified the winner or runner-up or both every year and (using 5 or 6 place each-way, weighted stakes) has been profitable for me every year except in 2012 (by a nose!).
2006: Numbersixvalverde (won) & Nil Desperandum (4th) 2007: McKelvey (2nd – 0.75) 2008: Comply Or Die (won), King Johns Castle (2nd) and Slim Pickings (4th) 2009: Mon Mome (won – 100/1) 2010: Don’t Push It (won), Big Fella Thanks (4th), Hello Bud (5th), Snowy Morning (6th) 2011: Oscar Time (2nd - 2.25L), State Of play (4th) 2012: Sunnyhillboy (2nd – Nose) 2013: Cappa Bleu (2nd – 9L), T43 (3rd), Swing Bill (6th)
2014 SELECTIONS
The model identifies selections according to 4 going conditions: • “Good” = Good and quicker • “Easy” = any mix of Good and Good-to-Soft • “GS” = Good-to-Soft and any mix of GS and Soft • “Soft~Heavy” = Soft and worse It is Aintree’s stated aim now, for safety reasons, to produce going (by irrigation if necessary) not quicker than the easy side of good and so, theoretically, the “Good” category should not be relevant. However, that is easier said than done and we will get a decent idea of the speed of the course when the Foxhunters and Topham chases are run over the GN course on Thursday and Friday. Happily, the top 2 selections this year are so irrespective of the going. It is the next selection on the slip that would differ, though only if the going were to be Soft~Heavy, which would currently seem unlikely.
As posted earlier today, selections in order of stat-scores:
GOOD~anything better than SOFT 1. TEAFORTHREE 2. MONBEG DUDE 3. CHANCE DU ROY Best Place Potential (relative rating varies according to specific going): SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (any), GOULANES (any), LONG RUN (any), HAWKES POINT (softer than Good), TIDAL BAY (softer than Good), MOUNTAINOUS (softer than Good, but may head to Fairyhouse rather than Aintree), GODSMEJUDGE (GS), TRANQUIL SEA (Easy side of Good but still unlikely to make the cut)
SOFT~HEAVY 1. TEAFORTHREE 2. MONBEG DUDE 3. (equal rating) TIDAL BAY and MOUNTAINOUS (but may be scratched before decs) Best Place Potential: will confirm if and when Soft~Heavy going appears more likely
TEAFORTHREE (originally advised 25/1[4 places] or 20/1 [5 places], now 10/1)
The model’s #1 selection, irrespective of going:
• 3rd (9.25L) in last GN with 11.03. Travelled and jumped beautifully, leading 2 out before tiring in the last furlong but was the only 1 of the 15 runners carrying 11.00+ to make the first 11 home, as the hike in weights from the defections of Tidal Bay and Albertas Run gave a significant advantage to the more lightly-weighted. With hindsight, the winner was clearly thrown in on 10.03 and T43 was only just touched off for 2nd.
• After a 27L 9th in this season’s Welsh National (a respectable run for his seasonal debut), despite his good GN run last year, the handicapper surprisingly dropped T43’s GN mark 2lbs to 149 at the announcement of the GN weights, which means he will carry 10.12 (5lbs less than last time) providing Tidal Bay lines up, as intended. It is rare for horses just missing in the GN to win it subsequently - Amberleigh House was the last to do so, being 3rd with 10.04 in 2003 before winning (slightly fortunately) a year later with 10.10. However, not only in the “Compression Years” (since 2000) but as far back as 1988 (at least), no horse winning or finishing <10L of the GN winner has carried less weight in the subsequent GN and, according to the stats, the difference in task between carrying 11.03 and 10.12 in the GN is massive.
• In fact, based on his pre-Gold Cup mark (which may or may not be revised tomorrow morning), T43 would be now 4lbs “well-in” in terms of Official Rating, as a fine prep at Ascot in February prompted a re-rating to OR153.
• T43 was 2nd (0.5L) to Monbeg Dude in the 2012 WN carrying 11.03 (as difficult to carry 11.00+ in the WN as it is in the GN). As many of you know, there is a strong correlation between WN and GN success: horses formerly placed 1st~3rd in the Welsh National have won 8 of the 24 GNs run (ignoring the farcical race of 2001) since 1988 and have accounted for at least one of the paying places (1st~5th) in 16 of them.
• Importantly, he can go the pace of a decent-ground staying chase. Aside from his GN 3rd on GS(Gd), he won the 4m Amateur Riders’ Chase at the 2012 Festival, carrying 11.06 to win in a very respectable time for the Good (GS) official going. His sire is Oscar whose offspring tend to be versatile as to going and his dam-sire is Strong Gale whose progeny tended to like “top-of-the-ground”. His final prep (21L 8th) in the Gold Cup last week on quick ground was very respectable, travelling prominently and jumping well. The proximity (21 days) of the GC to the GN is immaterial stats-wise. Miinnehoma (1992) won the GN on testing ground after finishing 7th 19L in the GC 22 days prior and Rough Quest (1996) won the GN after being 4L runner-up in the GC a mere 16 days prior.
• Clearly handles the GN fences and occasion and has never tipped up in his 19 runs over obstacles. His front-running style helps keep him away from traffic problems.
• 10 years of age is perfect.
• The model rates T43 off 10.12 as 12~18L ahead of the Next Best (Monbeg Dude). So, if all run to their GN stats and avoid misfortune, we could see the first 12+L margin of victory since Mon Mome in 2009 and possibly the biggest margin of victory since Lord Gyllene romped home by 25L in 1997……………….that’s a big IF though. My model said the same about Synchronised in 2012 (
• Stamina proven when winning the 2012 Welsh National (run in Jan 2013) on heavy, touching off Teaforthree (3rd 2013 GN). Strong correlation between Welsh National and GN noted above.
• Importantly, the Dude showed his versatility as regards going with a win (off a 10lb higher mark than Chepstow) and near-miss in good-ground Grade 3 chases, run at a decent clip over 3.25~3.5m at Cheltenham this season, contributing to his 55% (win & near-miss) Strike Rate in 11 chases at 3m+.
• He is yet to face the GN fences and his jumping style has been a concern (prone to clatter one every now and then). Yet he has never fallen and his only UR in 15 runs over obstacles was with an amateur on board. His chase wins or near-misses have come at Cheltenham, Chepstow and Newbury (3 of the stiffest jumping tests in the country) and, famously, he’s received “show jumping” tuition from Zara Tindall. It would also seem that, since the last round of modifications after the 2012 GN, the Aintree fences are perhaps not quite as daunting as they once were.
• MB has typically been held up (exaggeratedly so by Paul Carberry in the WN) and that might make him vulnerable to traffic problems in the GN but it was noticeable that Tom Scudamore rode him handier in his last Cheltenham win, perhaps with Aintree in mind. Paul Carberry, GN winner on Bobbyjo, seems his likely GN pilot.
• His other stats are in the sweet spot for GN success: a 9 year old, 4 runs this season (the last 35 days prior) and allotted a very winnable weight of 10.09, assuming that Tidal Bay lines up.
• The only negative for MB is his weight relative to T43. He received 16lbs from him when touching him off for the Welsh National but will run with just a 3lb advantage at Aintree, carrying 10.09. If the weights were set now (assuming no change in T43’s pre-GC mark) he should be receiving 9lbs from T43, since MB’s OR was dropped 2lbs to 144 after his GN prep (a perfectly respectable but never-in-contention 26L 5th over an inadequate trip on quick ground) – i.e. MB would be at a 6lb disadvantage vs T43 on 5 April on today’s Official Ratings, not that that necessarily has any bearing on the price of fish.
• Nonetheless, the Dude’s GN stat-profile relative to the rest of the field carrying 10.09 is very strong and, though he will be carrying 8lbs more than when victorious in the Welsh National and will be running off a career-high Official Rating of 146 (8lbs higher than his highest winning mark), both Hedgehunter (2005) and Mon Mome (2009) won the GN (as 9y-os) off career-high marks (144 and 148 respectively) and carrying 11.00+, which was 11lbs+ more than when previously placed in the WN.
CHANCE DU ROY (40/1 Bet 365 [NRNB & 5 places], 33/1 Bet Vic [6 places])
The model’s #3 selection, providing the going is better than Soft:
• Out of the same mold as the likes of Amberleigh House, Swing Bill and Always Waining, he seems to love racing over the GN fences. He’s already achieved what the multiple Topham winner Always Waining couldn’t – a win in the 3.25m Becher Chase and he did so on Soft. Perhaps not surprisingly, there is a good correlation between Becher Chase and GN success. Since 1995, 2 GN winners (Amberleigh House and Silver Birch) and 10 other placings (2nd~6th) have gone to runners that had won or finished <6L in the Becher Chase and 10 of the last 18 GNs have seen at least one place filled by a Becher chase winner or near-thing.
• In his 3 other runs over the fences, CdR carried 11.07 (giving 10lbs to the winner) to finish 4.5L runner up to Always Waining in the 2012 Topham on Good (run at a decent clip), off a mark of OR148. In the 2012 Grand Sefton he was travelling well with the leader and eventual winner, Little Josh, when tipping up 5 out and (OR146 carrying 11.07) was a staying-on 25L behind Triolo d’Alene in the 2013 Topham on GS. He was giving TdA a stone that day but (given a mark of OR143 for the 2014 GN), will be receiving a stone from TdA on 5 April.
• The big question for CdR to answer is stamina at a trip he’s never attempted before. It is an unknown but his overall stat-score is consistent with Montys Pass (won 2003 GN) and Clan Royal (2nd 3L in 2004). They too were GN debutants and untried at beyond 3~3.25m but with form over the GN fences carrying meaningfully more weight than for the GN. His stat profile is also similar to that of Amberleigh House immediately prior to his 3rd in the 2003 GN on Good ground with 10.04 (at which stage, his Becher victory on Soft with 10.09, was his furthest chase win and, other than when BD at the 8th in the 2001 GN, his only previous attempt a longer trip (29f on Good at Haydock) had been a very remote 15th of 17 runners.
• CdR’s Strike rate (wins and near-misses) at 3m+ is a modest 20% (1/5). AH’s was 22% (2/9) prior to the 2003 GN and two GN winners had similar or worse Strike Rates – Papillon (1/11 prior to winning 2000 GN) and Bindaree (2/10 prior to winning 2002 GN). Both of these GNs were on Good ground, as were those when AH was placed and then victorious (2004).
• CdR ticks a very interesting stat-box, which only 2 GN runners in my 300+ database of runners since 1988 have ticked. He has a strong, favourable bias to “Spring Ground” (defined as races run, on any going, between the start of the Cheltenham Festival and, precisely, 2 months later [i.e. with the GN run approx. in the middle]). CdR has a Strike Rate (wins and near misses) of 66.7% (4/6) in chases during that period, compared to one of 20% (3/15) in chases at other times of the season. The 2 other horses in the database with a similar disparity in favour of Spring Ground? Seagram (winner of the 1991 GN) and Aurora’s Encore (winner 2013).
• Other stats are fine. A 10 year-old and 3 runs in the season, the last being 49 days prior (a respectable 8L behind T43 – receiving 6lbs, as he will at Aintree). He is due to carry 10.06 and would not want any rise (i.e. he would strongly want Tidal Bay to line up as intended). His chances would drop to strong place potential (though still just about 3rd best overall) from winning candidate on GS~better if he were to carry even 1lb more.
I have backed all 3 of these (taking a view on better than Soft going for CdR) but, as you know, I also have SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM on my betting slip at 50/1 [5 places & NRFB]. His final preps did not go as well as the model required to elevate him to Winning Candidate but he remains one of the posse with near-identical stat-scores that have the best place potential and, while he would not rank as one of the model’s Win Selections, on the strength of his 2 creditable runs over the GN fences (now carrying 10.03 - 9lbs less when running well for a long way as an 8y-o in the 2012 GN) and a 67% Win & Near-Miss Strike Rate at 3m+, I’m very happy to have him running for me at 50s if Henderson thinks he is fit enough to take part.
Nearer the time, once we have a reasonable idea as to the going (to be gauged when the Topham and Foxhunters chases are run) I may recommend a final selection as the best long-shot place contender, depending on the prevailing prices for 6 e/w places.
Handicapper's latest Official Ratings released this morning, reflecting final GN preps.
Not necessarily much bearing on the price of fish (since marks for chases typically run at 24~26 furlongs may have little bearing on ability at 4m+) but, theoretcially, the most "well-in" GN runners (i.e. their GN weight is Xlbs less than they would carry if the GN weights were framed today)
GOULANES 9lbs (particularly interesting having been re-rated after his 4.25m Midlands National win on Saturday) TRANQUIL SEA 9lbs TEAFORTHREE 4lbs
of course TIDAL BAY is 7lbs well-in, having had his mark dropped ("compression of the weights") when the GN weights were framed.
Those most over-weighted (i.e. their GN weight is Xlbs more than they would carry if the GN weights were framed today) appear to be:
OUR FATHER -9lbs BURTON PORT -4lbs SAME DIFFERENCE -4lbs SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM -3lbs GODSMEJUDGE -3lbs
Comments
If he strolls round then hopefully no worries but if he gets competitive the Cheltenham Hill may do for his National chances.
OHO's having a great season and on paper that run today makes his 11.03 weight for the GN look attractive but his Fall in the last GN (a fair way from home and the 3rd failure to complete in 3 attempts at 3.5m+) when clearly tiring and with 3lbs less suggests that they'd be well advised to head to Punchestown for another Grade 1, as Mullins seems to be thinking.
On another GN runner, an interesting question is who will pilot Tidal Bay at Aintree now that Daryl Jacob is side-lined. He can be a tricky ride and his only career tip up was over the GN fences 3 years ago. Walsh unlikely to make Aintree either (might have been outside chance Mullins may have freed him to resume the partnership but that's academic).
JUNIOR - 2 dismal attempts over the GN fences, no interest
WYCK HILL - impressive win in the Eider and would rubber-stamp staying credentials if going close today but most unlikely to make the cut at Aintree
PETE THE FEAT (25/1 today, 66/1 for the GN) - could elevate his GN stats to winning potential if GS or softer at Aintree (looking less and less likely) if a strong show today.
GOULANES (6/1 fav today, 66/1 for the GN) - possibly favourite today simply because of the great record David Pipe has in the race as not running well in 2 attempts at 3.5m+, though tongue-tie fitted for the first time today. If going close would give his GN stat-profile strong place potential on GS or better and would probably put himself at #67 in the weights - would just have got in in 3 of last 4 GNs.
Looks like a decent quality renewal of this famous 4.25m test in which Lord Gyllene was a creditable 2nd and Mon Mome ran prior to GN victories in 1997 and 2009 respectively and which 5 other GN placed horses since 1992 used as their final prep.
No stat-model behind that but he was only 4L behind when giving 15lbs to Rigadin De Beauchene in last season's Warwick National (same race 3.5L behind and giving 6lbs to Godsmejudge who, of course, was red hot last season). RdB's win in Feb's GNT puts Pete well ahead on a form line to Emperors Choice and Loch Ba at the weights today.
Ran really well in the mud over 3.5m at Haydock in December with 11.08 (just got caught before the line) - 2lbs higher mark today but Harry Topper running means he's only got 10.06 to carry. Seems to perform better going LH as today and has Fehily on board.
......With my betting form this week, he'll probably UR at the first ;o)
How about you Abs?
Fehily's just had has 3rd winner of the afternoon....................momentum or mean reversion when it comes to Pete The Feat?
Big move for Pete before the off - smashed into 8/1 - but another UR, having thumped one too many. They won't take him to Aintree now.
Surprised Wyck Hill faded so badly given his undoubted stamina.
Don't see the winner of the big one in that field.
Fast pace, goodish ground, don't think T43 will have benefited from the run. (I know, we disagree)
Really thought BW was gonna win but was hampered by Silviano Conti (who was trying to take out the whole field near the end) and was shocked that his gas tank emptied so quickly.
T43 10s
monbeg dude 20s
chance du roy 40s
Watch that Non Runner Free Bet - there are per horse and per punter limits.
Bet365 now NRNB and I would imagine Victor may go to NRNB after the forfeit stage tomorrow.
In to 33/1 for 6 places (still 40/1 with Bet365 5 places).
T43 and MONBEG DUDE already identified as Winning Candidates - top 2 stat-ratings on any going.
If it is better than Soft (looking pretty likely), clear 3rd best rating (also a Winning Profile) is CHANCE DU ROY (33/1 [6 places] 40/1 [5 places])
Best Place Potential if better than Soft (relative rating varies according to specific going):
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (any), GOULANES (any), LONG RUN (any), HAWKES POINT (softer than Good), TIDAL BAY (softer than Good), MOUNTAINOUS (softer than Good but may head to Fairyhouse rather than Aintree), GODSMEJUDGE (GS)
If it were Soft or Heavy, clear 3rd best are (joint) TIDAL BAY and MOUNTAINOUS (may or may not have been scratched prior to decs)
Best Place Potential on Soft~Heavy: will advise if and when Soft~Heavy looks likely.
Seabass
On His Own
Boston Bob
Pete The Feat
Well Refreshed
That leaves 73 still in.
Definitely getting a run are all those weighted 10.04+. #40 is The Package.
The last 4 GNs have seen #50~53 (at this stage) make the cut.
#50 now is Swing Bill (the last of those with 10.01)
My GN stat-model has been working over-time on a highly competitive list of entries but, as leading candidates one-by-one have fallen by the wayside, it has come out with a decisive view as to the winning candidates for the 2014 GN.
I won’t bore you with how the model works (though will happily explain if anyone is sad enough to want to know) but, in brief, utilising a database of 327 former GN runners (all winners and horses placed 1~4th and others finishing up to 30 lengths behind the winner in all GNs 1988~2007, excluding the farcical 2001 GN, and the entire fields of GNs 2008~2013) and a variety of criteria it attempts to determine those current runners with the best fit to horses winning or going close since 1988.
The model is designed to improve %s in selecting horses to back. It isn’t a crystal ball of course and every year (even if successful) it needs to be tweaked to reconcile the unaccounted-for performances, the tweaks being back-tested against the entire database to maintain robustness.
Someday it will crash and burn but I’m happy to keep faith with it in the meantime. I’ve been using this system for 8 GNs now and it’s done a decent job for me: it’s identified the winner or runner-up or both every year and (using 5 or 6 place each-way, weighted stakes) has been profitable for me every year except in 2012 (by a nose!).
2006: Numbersixvalverde (won) & Nil Desperandum (4th)
2007: McKelvey (2nd – 0.75)
2008: Comply Or Die (won), King Johns Castle (2nd) and Slim Pickings (4th)
2009: Mon Mome (won – 100/1)
2010: Don’t Push It (won), Big Fella Thanks (4th), Hello Bud (5th), Snowy Morning (6th)
2011: Oscar Time (2nd - 2.25L), State Of play (4th)
2012: Sunnyhillboy (2nd – Nose)
2013: Cappa Bleu (2nd – 9L), T43 (3rd), Swing Bill (6th)
2014 SELECTIONS
The model identifies selections according to 4 going conditions:
• “Good” = Good and quicker
• “Easy” = any mix of Good and Good-to-Soft
• “GS” = Good-to-Soft and any mix of GS and Soft
• “Soft~Heavy” = Soft and worse
It is Aintree’s stated aim now, for safety reasons, to produce going (by irrigation if necessary) not quicker than the easy side of good and so, theoretically, the “Good” category should not be relevant. However, that is easier said than done and we will get a decent idea of the speed of the course when the Foxhunters and Topham chases are run over the GN course on Thursday and Friday.
Happily, the top 2 selections this year are so irrespective of the going. It is the next selection on the slip that would differ, though only if the going were to be Soft~Heavy, which would currently seem unlikely.
As posted earlier today, selections in order of stat-scores:
GOOD~anything better than SOFT
1. TEAFORTHREE
2. MONBEG DUDE
3. CHANCE DU ROY
Best Place Potential (relative rating varies according to specific going):
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (any), GOULANES (any), LONG RUN (any), HAWKES POINT (softer than Good), TIDAL BAY (softer than Good), MOUNTAINOUS (softer than Good, but may head to Fairyhouse rather than Aintree), GODSMEJUDGE (GS), TRANQUIL SEA (Easy side of Good but still unlikely to make the cut)
SOFT~HEAVY
1. TEAFORTHREE
2. MONBEG DUDE
3. (equal rating) TIDAL BAY and MOUNTAINOUS (but may be scratched before decs)
Best Place Potential: will confirm if and when Soft~Heavy going appears more likely
Reasons why to follow..........
The model’s #1 selection, irrespective of going:
• 3rd (9.25L) in last GN with 11.03. Travelled and jumped beautifully, leading 2 out before tiring in the last furlong but was the only 1 of the 15 runners carrying 11.00+ to make the first 11 home, as the hike in weights from the defections of Tidal Bay and Albertas Run gave a significant advantage to the more lightly-weighted. With hindsight, the winner was clearly thrown in on 10.03 and T43 was only just touched off for 2nd.
• After a 27L 9th in this season’s Welsh National (a respectable run for his seasonal debut), despite his good GN run last year, the handicapper surprisingly dropped T43’s GN mark 2lbs to 149 at the announcement of the GN weights, which means he will carry 10.12 (5lbs less than last time) providing Tidal Bay lines up, as intended. It is rare for horses just missing in the GN to win it subsequently - Amberleigh House was the last to do so, being 3rd with 10.04 in 2003 before winning (slightly fortunately) a year later with 10.10. However, not only in the “Compression Years” (since 2000) but as far back as 1988 (at least), no horse winning or finishing <10L of the GN winner has carried less weight in the subsequent GN and, according to the stats, the difference in task between carrying 11.03 and 10.12 in the GN is massive.
• In fact, based on his pre-Gold Cup mark (which may or may not be revised tomorrow morning), T43 would be now 4lbs “well-in” in terms of Official Rating, as a fine prep at Ascot in February prompted a re-rating to OR153.
• T43 was 2nd (0.5L) to Monbeg Dude in the 2012 WN carrying 11.03 (as difficult to carry 11.00+ in the WN as it is in the GN). As many of you know, there is a strong correlation between WN and GN success: horses formerly placed 1st~3rd in the Welsh National have won 8 of the 24 GNs run (ignoring the farcical race of 2001) since 1988 and have accounted for at least one of the paying places (1st~5th) in 16 of them.
• Importantly, he can go the pace of a decent-ground staying chase. Aside from his GN 3rd on GS(Gd), he won the 4m Amateur Riders’ Chase at the 2012 Festival, carrying 11.06 to win in a very respectable time for the Good (GS) official going. His sire is Oscar whose offspring tend to be versatile as to going and his dam-sire is Strong Gale whose progeny tended to like “top-of-the-ground”. His final prep (21L 8th) in the Gold Cup last week on quick ground was very respectable, travelling prominently and jumping well. The proximity (21 days) of the GC to the GN is immaterial stats-wise. Miinnehoma (1992) won the GN on testing ground after finishing 7th 19L in the GC 22 days prior and Rough Quest (1996) won the GN after being 4L runner-up in the GC a mere 16 days prior.
• Clearly handles the GN fences and occasion and has never tipped up in his 19 runs over obstacles. His front-running style helps keep him away from traffic problems.
• 10 years of age is perfect.
• The model rates T43 off 10.12 as 12~18L ahead of the Next Best (Monbeg Dude). So, if all run to their GN stats and avoid misfortune, we could see the first 12+L margin of victory since Mon Mome in 2009 and possibly the biggest margin of victory since Lord Gyllene romped home by 25L in 1997……………….that’s a big IF though. My model said the same about Synchronised in 2012
The model’s #2 selection, irrespective of going:
• Stamina proven when winning the 2012 Welsh National (run in Jan 2013) on heavy, touching off Teaforthree (3rd 2013 GN). Strong correlation between Welsh National and GN noted above.
• Importantly, the Dude showed his versatility as regards going with a win (off a 10lb higher mark than Chepstow) and near-miss in good-ground Grade 3 chases, run at a decent clip over 3.25~3.5m at Cheltenham this season, contributing to his 55% (win & near-miss) Strike Rate in 11 chases at 3m+.
• He is yet to face the GN fences and his jumping style has been a concern (prone to clatter one every now and then). Yet he has never fallen and his only UR in 15 runs over obstacles was with an amateur on board. His chase wins or near-misses have come at Cheltenham, Chepstow and Newbury (3 of the stiffest jumping tests in the country) and, famously, he’s received “show jumping” tuition from Zara Tindall. It would also seem that, since the last round of modifications after the 2012 GN, the Aintree fences are perhaps not quite as daunting as they once were.
• MB has typically been held up (exaggeratedly so by Paul Carberry in the WN) and that might make him vulnerable to traffic problems in the GN but it was noticeable that Tom Scudamore rode him handier in his last Cheltenham win, perhaps with Aintree in mind. Paul Carberry, GN winner on Bobbyjo, seems his likely GN pilot.
• His other stats are in the sweet spot for GN success: a 9 year old, 4 runs this season (the last 35 days prior) and allotted a very winnable weight of 10.09, assuming that Tidal Bay lines up.
• The only negative for MB is his weight relative to T43. He received 16lbs from him when touching him off for the Welsh National but will run with just a 3lb advantage at Aintree, carrying 10.09. If the weights were set now (assuming no change in T43’s pre-GC mark) he should be receiving 9lbs from T43, since MB’s OR was dropped 2lbs to 144 after his GN prep (a perfectly respectable but never-in-contention 26L 5th over an inadequate trip on quick ground) – i.e. MB would be at a 6lb disadvantage vs T43 on 5 April on today’s Official Ratings, not that that necessarily has any bearing on the price of fish.
• Nonetheless, the Dude’s GN stat-profile relative to the rest of the field carrying 10.09 is very strong and, though he will be carrying 8lbs more than when victorious in the Welsh National and will be running off a career-high Official Rating of 146 (8lbs higher than his highest winning mark), both Hedgehunter (2005) and Mon Mome (2009) won the GN (as 9y-os) off career-high marks (144 and 148 respectively) and carrying 11.00+, which was 11lbs+ more than when previously placed in the WN.
The model’s #3 selection, providing the going is better than Soft:
• Out of the same mold as the likes of Amberleigh House, Swing Bill and Always Waining, he seems to love racing over the GN fences. He’s already achieved what the multiple Topham winner Always Waining couldn’t – a win in the 3.25m Becher Chase and he did so on Soft. Perhaps not surprisingly, there is a good correlation between Becher Chase and GN success. Since 1995, 2 GN winners (Amberleigh House and Silver Birch) and 10 other placings (2nd~6th) have gone to runners that had won or finished <6L in the Becher Chase and 10 of the last 18 GNs have seen at least one place filled by a Becher chase winner or near-thing.
• In his 3 other runs over the fences, CdR carried 11.07 (giving 10lbs to the winner) to finish 4.5L runner up to Always Waining in the 2012 Topham on Good (run at a decent clip), off a mark of OR148. In the 2012 Grand Sefton he was travelling well with the leader and eventual winner, Little Josh, when tipping up 5 out and (OR146 carrying 11.07) was a staying-on 25L behind Triolo d’Alene in the 2013 Topham on GS. He was giving TdA a stone that day but (given a mark of OR143 for the 2014 GN), will be receiving a stone from TdA on 5 April.
• The big question for CdR to answer is stamina at a trip he’s never attempted before. It is an unknown but his overall stat-score is consistent with Montys Pass (won 2003 GN) and Clan Royal (2nd 3L in 2004). They too were GN debutants and untried at beyond 3~3.25m but with form over the GN fences carrying meaningfully more weight than for the GN. His stat profile is also similar to that of Amberleigh House immediately prior to his 3rd in the 2003 GN on Good ground with 10.04 (at which stage, his Becher victory on Soft with 10.09, was his furthest chase win and, other than when BD at the 8th in the 2001 GN, his only previous attempt a longer trip (29f on Good at Haydock) had been a very remote 15th of 17 runners.
• CdR’s Strike rate (wins and near-misses) at 3m+ is a modest 20% (1/5). AH’s was 22% (2/9) prior to the 2003 GN and two GN winners had similar or worse Strike Rates – Papillon (1/11 prior to winning 2000 GN) and Bindaree (2/10 prior to winning 2002 GN). Both of these GNs were on Good ground, as were those when AH was placed and then victorious (2004).
• CdR ticks a very interesting stat-box, which only 2 GN runners in my 300+ database of runners since 1988 have ticked. He has a strong, favourable bias to “Spring Ground” (defined as races run, on any going, between the start of the Cheltenham Festival and, precisely, 2 months later [i.e. with the GN run approx. in the middle]). CdR has a Strike Rate (wins and near misses) of 66.7% (4/6) in chases during that period, compared to one of 20% (3/15) in chases at other times of the season. The 2 other horses in the database with a similar disparity in favour of Spring Ground? Seagram (winner of the 1991 GN) and Aurora’s Encore (winner 2013).
• Other stats are fine. A 10 year-old and 3 runs in the season, the last being 49 days prior (a respectable 8L behind T43 – receiving 6lbs, as he will at Aintree). He is due to carry 10.06 and would not want any rise (i.e. he would strongly want Tidal Bay to line up as intended). His chances would drop to strong place potential (though still just about 3rd best overall) from winning candidate on GS~better if he were to carry even 1lb more.
I have backed all 3 of these (taking a view on better than Soft going for CdR) but, as you know, I also have SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM on my betting slip at 50/1 [5 places & NRFB]. His final preps did not go as well as the model required to elevate him to Winning Candidate but he remains one of the posse with near-identical stat-scores that have the best place potential and, while he would not rank as one of the model’s Win Selections, on the strength of his 2 creditable runs over the GN fences (now carrying 10.03 - 9lbs less when running well for a long way as an 8y-o in the 2012 GN) and a 67% Win & Near-Miss Strike Rate at 3m+, I’m very happy to have him running for me at 50s if Henderson thinks he is fit enough to take part.
Nearer the time, once we have a reasonable idea as to the going (to be gauged when the Topham and Foxhunters chases are run) I may recommend a final selection as the best long-shot place contender, depending on the prevailing prices for 6 e/w places.
Not necessarily much bearing on the price of fish (since marks for chases typically run at 24~26 furlongs may have little bearing on ability at 4m+) but, theoretcially, the most "well-in" GN runners (i.e. their GN weight is Xlbs less than they would carry if the GN weights were framed today)
GOULANES 9lbs (particularly interesting having been re-rated after his 4.25m Midlands National win on Saturday)
TRANQUIL SEA 9lbs
TEAFORTHREE 4lbs
of course TIDAL BAY is 7lbs well-in, having had his mark dropped ("compression of the weights") when the GN weights were framed.
Those most over-weighted (i.e. their GN weight is Xlbs more than they would carry if the GN weights were framed today) appear to be:
OUR FATHER -9lbs
BURTON PORT -4lbs
SAME DIFFERENCE -4lbs
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM -3lbs
GODSMEJUDGE -3lbs
Not an exhaustive list.