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Will Trump become President?

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  • Greenie said:

    I saw the woman being interviewed on the BBC this morning. She likened the Trump attack to being groped by an octopus, 'it was like he had six arms' she said, now I dont know about you lot, but I dont think I can really trust someones story if they dont know how many arms/legs an octopus has , and as much as I detest Trump it all seems a little too convenient.

    I think she needs to back this up with a lie detector. If she passes, he ought to be finished.
    i think she would probably fail if she is claiming he has six arms
    He doesn't even have 6 brain cells.
  • And just seen this -

    In 2006, he made a similar comment about his own daughter, Ivanka Trump: “I’ve said that if Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her,” Trump said.

    That is an unbelievable comment.
  • 3blokes said:

    If there is footage of him making remarks about a 10 year old girl that is him finished. There will be no way back from that.
    Well, at least, one would imagine so...

    We'd all hope so, but his supporters are already twisting their logic through the 4th dimension to keep supporting him, so there are some who would still say his quotes were taken out of context, or god can work through anyone (I've already heard that one!).
  • 3blokes said:

    And just seen this -

    In 2006, he made a similar comment about his own daughter, Ivanka Trump: “I’ve said that if Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her,” Trump said.

    That is an unbelievable comment.

    Oh yeah his infatuation with his daughter is long-standing. He's also referred to her as a piece of ass.
  • Greenie said:

    I saw the woman being interviewed on the BBC this morning. She likened the Trump attack to being groped by an octopus, 'it was like he had six arms' she said, now I dont know about you lot, but I dont think I can really trust someones story if they dont know how many arms/legs an octopus has , and as much as I detest Trump it all seems a little too convenient.

    I think she needs to back this up with a lie detector. If she passes, he ought to be finished.
    Little known fact

    Lie detectors are absolutely useless. Hollywood has led people to believe they are some magic infallible thing when, in reality, they are no more accurate at predicting whether someone is lying than a skilled interviewer
  • Rizzo said:

    Why do I get the feeling that the Clinton campaign knew all about this and held it back until it was too late for Trump to be replaced?

    Doubt they would have waited this long--it's been the case for weeks and weeks that he couldn't have been replaced on the ticket, arguably since July. Furthermore, the revelations about Trump have come from all over the place. I think some of these things, mainly the Access Hollywood tape, was only just discovered (reporters don't usually sit on things too long in this election cycle lest they risk someone else getting the story), and from there news agencies knew of the other allegations, its just the public didn't seem to care until now.
  • 3blokes said:

    And just seen this -

    In 2006, he made a similar comment about his own daughter, Ivanka Trump: “I’ve said that if Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her,” Trump said.

    That is an unbelievable comment.

    Didn't he also say that she had always been very voluptuous.
  • SDAddick said:

    3blokes said:

    And just seen this -

    In 2006, he made a similar comment about his own daughter, Ivanka Trump: “I’ve said that if Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her,” Trump said.

    That is an unbelievable comment.

    Oh yeah his infatuation with his daughter is long-standing. He's also referred to her as a piece of ass.
    Oh my god. That is beyond creepy
  • I bet the people in the Trump campaign who decided to make the decades old allegations of sex attacks by Bill Clinton a central issue in these final weeks have some deep deep remorse at the moment.
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  • What sort of impact does/will the latest WikiLeaks emails have on Clintons campaign?

    Haven't seen anything mentioned about this latest 'leak' and just wondering what those who live in the states make of it all.
  • What sort of impact does/will the latest WikiLeaks emails have on Clintons campaign?

    Haven't seen anything mentioned about this latest 'leak' and just wondering what those who live in the states make of it all.

    Not much of any impact really. Were the Trump campaign better run, and if it didn't have a man constantly accused of sexual harassment and assault at the top of the ticket it could be substantial. But as I said in my lengthy post, these are not simply two candidates, this is one candidate and one madmen.

    Also worth noting that these would have been FAR more damning in the primaries when she was running against Bernie Sanders. This is a much bigger problem for those on the left side of, and to the left of, the Democratic party, such as myself. I've been doing my best to read The Intercept, though to be honest if I didn't follow them and Glenn Greenwald on social media there's a chance I would have missed the latest round. It is certainly problematic, though more or less exactly what I expected (this is not an excuse, this is just what I assume someone who is paid loads of money to be speaking to a room full of evil bankers to say).

    The other thing is Trump hasn't been able to go after her about this stuff. As he said in the last debate, he knows a lot of her big donors. How he's succeeded as a "champion for the common man" throughout this debate is one in a long, long, long line of bizarre narratives, but him accusing her of being nice to the super rich...well she and Bill did attend his last wedding.

    I've promised to start caring and shouting about it starting November 10th.
  • What sort of impact does/will the latest WikiLeaks emails have on Clintons campaign?

    Haven't seen anything mentioned about this latest 'leak' and just wondering what those who live in the states make of it all.

    It is really funny watching Fox News try and portray them as "sensational" and "shocking" when in reality everyone can see they are nothing more than what you would expect to see if you had access to the private e.mail strategy discussions of any political campaign.
  • I bet the people in the Trump campaign who decided to make the decades old allegations of sex attacks by Bill Clinton a central issue in these final weeks have some deep deep remorse at the moment.

    Trump has a court date to attend on 13th Dec for a civil lawsuit against him relating to the alleged rape of a 13 year old girl in 2008. And also been reported that he boasted on Howard Stern radio show about walking into miss teen USA changing rooms ogling half naked 15 year old girls.
  • What sort of impact does/will the latest WikiLeaks emails have on Clintons campaign?

    Haven't seen anything mentioned about this latest 'leak' and just wondering what those who live in the states make of it all.

    It is really funny watching Fox News try and portray them as "sensational" and "shocking" when in reality everyone can see they are nothing more than what you would expect to see if you had access to the private e.mail strategy discussions of any political campaign.
    And they don't talk about Colin Powell having a similar email set up when he was Secretary of State under the Bush administration.
  • 1StevieG said:

    I bet the people in the Trump campaign who decided to make the decades old allegations of sex attacks by Bill Clinton a central issue in these final weeks have some deep deep remorse at the moment.

    Trump has a court date to attend on 13th Dec for a civil lawsuit against him relating to the alleged rape of a 13 year old girl in 2008. And also been reported that he boasted on Howard Stern radio show about walking into miss teen USA changing rooms ogling half naked 15 year old girls.
    To be fair, based on the history of the people behind it, that law suit seems nothing more than blatant extortion.
  • What sort of impact does/will the latest WikiLeaks emails have on Clintons campaign?

    Haven't seen anything mentioned about this latest 'leak' and just wondering what those who live in the states make of it all.

    It is really funny watching Fox News try and portray them as "sensational" and "shocking" when in reality everyone can see they are nothing more than what you would expect to see if you had access to the private e.mail strategy discussions of any political campaign.
    I think we're talking about different sets of leaks but yeah I think yours is a pretty fair statement.

    In the last debate, one of the questions from leaked emails came up, namely that in one of the emails she talks about having a public stance on things and a private stance on things. As an overall approach to life, that's actually pretty decent advice, and something most people do. This is coming from someone who cannot do that, and it has made things at times very difficult in my career, and you have to get comfortable in your own skin really quickly.

    That said, her answer is just so weird and wonky. It's weird and wonky enough to be true, it's weird and wonky enough to be focus grouped, but that's kind of the thing with her. Also:
    1) I'm okay on historical films and I love a bit of DKG (author of book that inspired film), but ""Lincoln" was not "a wonderful film" and
    2) I hope she realizes she was watching Daniel Day Lewis persuade a bunch of actors, and not Abe Lincoln himself...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HuzcP6LIwE
  • 1StevieG said:

    What sort of impact does/will the latest WikiLeaks emails have on Clintons campaign?

    Haven't seen anything mentioned about this latest 'leak' and just wondering what those who live in the states make of it all.

    It is really funny watching Fox News try and portray them as "sensational" and "shocking" when in reality everyone can see they are nothing more than what you would expect to see if you had access to the private e.mail strategy discussions of any political campaign.
    And they don't talk about Colin Powell having a similar email set up when he was Secretary of State under the Bush administration.
    The e.mails being released at the moment by wiki leaks are e.mails sent/received by staff on her campaign. These are not the e.mails from her private server when she was in the State Department.
  • 1StevieG said:

    What sort of impact does/will the latest WikiLeaks emails have on Clintons campaign?

    Haven't seen anything mentioned about this latest 'leak' and just wondering what those who live in the states make of it all.

    It is really funny watching Fox News try and portray them as "sensational" and "shocking" when in reality everyone can see they are nothing more than what you would expect to see if you had access to the private e.mail strategy discussions of any political campaign.
    And they don't talk about Colin Powell having a similar email set up when he was Secretary of State under the Bush administration.
    The e.mails being released at the moment by wiki leaks are e.mails sent/received by staff on her campaign. These are not the e.mails from her private server when she was in the State Department.
    My mistake, can't keep up with all the leaks!
  • Wikileaks stuff is very very shady. Not sure American citizens would be happy that (potentially) Russian backed sites are trying to fix the outcome of the election.
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  • It's amazing that we are still discussing Trump this late in the campaign.
    It just goes to show just how disliked the Clinton's are by millions of Americans
  • It's amazing that we are still discussing Trump this late in the campaign.
    It just goes to show just how disliked the Clinton's are by millions of Americans

    I think there are a lot of reasons people dislike Hillary Clinton, but a lot of them are based around fear-mongering and propaganda. But the main reason we're still talking about Trump is because he is absolutely imploding. I think this election will end up being a 350+ electoral college win for Clinton and could be up to 10% in overall voting which is an absolute blowout by US election proportions.
  • SDAddick said:

    It's amazing that we are still discussing Trump this late in the campaign.
    It just goes to show just how disliked the Clinton's are by millions of Americans

    I think there are a lot of reasons people dislike Hillary Clinton, but a lot of them are based around fear-mongering and propaganda. But the main reason we're still talking about Trump is because he is absolutely imploding. I think this election will end up being a 350+ electoral college win for Clinton and could be up to 10% in overall voting which is an absolute blowout by US election proportions.
    SD do you think it possible that Trump could drag down the Republican Senate and HoR vote resulting in them losing control of Congress?
  • The Trump campaign seems to be all but over but the odds on him winning the presidency suggest the world wakes up to President Trump in 1 out of 6 elections.I can't see the rationality in even those odds so why are people still backing him?

    Would he be the candidate to benefit from a terrorist attack, given his eratic behaviour? Are poor people going to bring down the system by voting for him en masse regardless of his misdemeanors and are keeping their intentions quiet? Even more leftfield , is this going to be the rigged election that will finally allow the elites to wash their hands if democracy and persuade the middle classes that benign dictatorship is preferable?

    I honestly don't see how he wins from here but people obviously disagree. What have I missed?
  • The Trump campaign seems to be all but over but the odds on him winning the presidency suggest the world wakes up to President Trump in 1 out of 6 elections.I can't see the rationality in even those odds so why are people still backing him?

    Would he be the candidate to benefit from a terrorist attack, given his eratic behaviour? Are poor people going to bring down the system by voting for him en masse regardless of his misdemeanors and are keeping their intentions quiet? Even more leftfield , is this going to be the rigged election that will finally allow the elites to wash their hands if democracy and persuade the middle classes that benign dictatorship is preferable?

    I honestly don't see how he wins from here but people obviously disagree. What have I missed?

    Nor do I, but there will be no real money for Clinton, and the bookmakers will lay Trump at the lowest price they can. If people are backing him at 5/1 then no need to go bigger!

    There is of course also the possibility that a 20 foot high skeleton could come out of Hilary's closet - tis the nature of the characters involved and we probably have all we are going to get on Trump, or if not it's likely to be more of the same. It would only need a relatively small swing to Trump and the race is back on.

  • edited October 2016
    bobmunro said:

    SDAddick said:

    It's amazing that we are still discussing Trump this late in the campaign.
    It just goes to show just how disliked the Clinton's are by millions of Americans

    I think there are a lot of reasons people dislike Hillary Clinton, but a lot of them are based around fear-mongering and propaganda. But the main reason we're still talking about Trump is because he is absolutely imploding. I think this election will end up being a 350+ electoral college win for Clinton and could be up to 10% in overall voting which is an absolute blowout by US election proportions.
    SD do you think it possible that Trump could drag down the Republican Senate and HoR vote resulting in them losing control of Congress?
    That's a really, really, really good question, and it's something the Congressional Republicans have been scared of for months. Paul Ryan has taken their focus away from campaigning for Trump and has really focused on down-ballot candidates.

    I think it will have an impact, definitely. But the question is is it enough to really put a dent in the Republicans lead in the house or to flip the Senate...maybe. It's so hard to tell.

    Oh, just happened to open up 538 and here was this article. This is something I think is interesting--the Republicans are really good at getting their base out to cote, so even if Trump loses big I could still see a scenario in which their base turns out for big congressional races:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-clinton-is-surging-but-down-ballot-democrats-are-losing-ground/
  • SDAddick said:

    bobmunro said:

    SDAddick said:

    It's amazing that we are still discussing Trump this late in the campaign.
    It just goes to show just how disliked the Clinton's are by millions of Americans

    I think there are a lot of reasons people dislike Hillary Clinton, but a lot of them are based around fear-mongering and propaganda. But the main reason we're still talking about Trump is because he is absolutely imploding. I think this election will end up being a 350+ electoral college win for Clinton and could be up to 10% in overall voting which is an absolute blowout by US election proportions.
    SD do you think it possible that Trump could drag down the Republican Senate and HoR vote resulting in them losing control of Congress?
    That's a really, really, really good question, and it's something the Congressional Republicans have been scared of for months. Paul Ryan has taken their focus away from campaigning for Trump and has really focused on down-ballot candidates.

    I think it will have an impact, definitely. But the question is is it enough to really put a dent in the Republicans lead in the house or to flip the Senate...maybe. It's so hard to tell.
    Yes it will be interesting. I don't know enough about the senate elections - how many potential swing seats are there in the 1/3rd up for grabs?
  • SDAddick said:

    It's amazing that we are still discussing Trump this late in the campaign.
    It just goes to show just how disliked the Clinton's are by millions of Americans

    I think there are a lot of reasons people dislike Hillary Clinton, but a lot of them are based around fear-mongering and propaganda. But the main reason we're still talking about Trump is because he is absolutely imploding. I think this election will end up being a 350+ electoral college win for Clinton and could be up to 10% in overall voting which is an absolute blowout by US election proportions.
    Let's hope you're right, if trump wins the whole world is in trouble
  • edited October 2016
    bobmunro said:

    SDAddick said:

    bobmunro said:

    SDAddick said:

    It's amazing that we are still discussing Trump this late in the campaign.
    It just goes to show just how disliked the Clinton's are by millions of Americans

    I think there are a lot of reasons people dislike Hillary Clinton, but a lot of them are based around fear-mongering and propaganda. But the main reason we're still talking about Trump is because he is absolutely imploding. I think this election will end up being a 350+ electoral college win for Clinton and could be up to 10% in overall voting which is an absolute blowout by US election proportions.
    SD do you think it possible that Trump could drag down the Republican Senate and HoR vote resulting in them losing control of Congress?
    That's a really, really, really good question, and it's something the Congressional Republicans have been scared of for months. Paul Ryan has taken their focus away from campaigning for Trump and has really focused on down-ballot candidates.

    I think it will have an impact, definitely. But the question is is it enough to really put a dent in the Republicans lead in the house or to flip the Senate...maybe. It's so hard to tell.
    Yes it will be interesting. I don't know enough about the senate elections - how many potential swing seats are there in the 1/3rd up for grabs?
    Yeah it's 1/3 (34 seats) that will be up for grabs. Of those, 8 are safe for the Dems and 9 safe for the Republicans, so you have 17 that are really "in play." Dems need to pick up 5 to get a majority, and right now they look poised to pick up 3 with a handful of tossups. Wikipedia has a really good breakdown:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016
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