Hopefully this means people will stop talking about the bullshit that Nate Silver calls "probability".
To be fair to him he was WAY more cautious of a Trump victory than just about any other pollster (including, I suspect, those within the Trump campaign).
Maybe so.
But... Whatever those numbers were, they were not probability in any sense.
Sorry to hear about your concerns with healthcare. Hopefully you can find a way of keeping the protection.
In a way, I kind of feel happy for those that voted for Trump because they must be proper disillusioned to be pushed into voting for that nutcase.
The fact of the matter is that Clinton is, and always was, a weak candidate. After getting the nomination sorted via her pals at the DNC, she inspired precisely no-one. Her campaign got twisted into "don't vote for the bad man" instead of focusing on real issues and that failed to convince the public that she wasn't a weak candidate.
The candidate who would've beaten Trump in all this was Bernie Sanders. Such a missed opportunity.
The way I see it, this is gonna go one of two ways:
1. Trump gives it up with the first 100 days because he's won and that's enough for his ego 2. He sticks at it but when Congress and the Senate goes Democrat, he'll have trouble passing any noteworthy legislation
Morning all, Did I miss much, wait what, TRUMP? But all the experts on CL wrote 60 odd pages on how he can't possibly win.
Guess we underestimated how many folk like you there are in the world. A triumph of hope over humanity.
Next election of any sort let me know who you're aggressively rooting for and I'll be sure to back the other party with the bookies, have a splendid day try not to cry.
What really matters. We're happy. We're (largely) healthy. The sun will rise tomorrow just as it did today and yesterday.
Try to keep it civil. I promise you if I can, when this election could have direct results on me, you can find it in your hearts to do it too. We're all Charlton (sorry MillwallFan). Most of us are Britons. Some of us live in the States. But we're all human and we're all doing the best we can.
I commented about 50 pages back saying something along the lines of "it'll be like brexit, the bookies will get it wrong" and y'all laughed, if someone could find it and quote me so I can gloat it'd be appreciated.
I commented about 50 pages back saying something along the lines of "it'll be like brexit, the bookies will get it wrong" and y'all laughed, if someone could find it and quote me so I can gloat it'd be appreciated.
You already are mate. Hope it turns out like you wish and the noisy minority are wrong.
@TelMc32 no bother about the grammar it's early and no coffee yet, no issue with people having an opinion but why are they labelled idiots the same as brexit voters.
Because the left are shitting themselves the realisation that us regular hard working, working class folk want and will get change is frightening to them and what do they do when they shit themselves and don't know what to say? They call names
The Labour movement that gave a meaningful voice to left wing politics was all about working class folk fighting for change in their favour. Why would I, as a person whose political stance is generally left of centre, be scared of working class folk? I am one myself, as is my wife and all our family.
What I'm scared of is a world where people think that foreigners and ethnic minorities are all to blame for their problems and then vote for millionaires who've never done a hard days work in their life because they've swallowed the hate filled lies, and over simplistic solutions that have been spat at them with barely disguised disdain by yet another bunch of self serving politicians who are using the people to get what serves them best, not what serves the people best.
This is just it though, labour is not for the working class. Not even close. They scream racist every time you bring up a genuine immigration related concern. I'm not silly enough to think that immigration is the cause of all problems, but it is a problem, I see it first hand quite often people being undercut for ridiculous prices from cheap Romanian work forces etc. Doesn't mean I want them sent home, just want things tightened up.
The left claim to be for the little people but when we've stood up to be counted and voted for change (brexit) labour cronies and other leftie, are trying to block it.
On my site, I don't know a single person whose voted for Labour, all ukip or Tory. Labour and the left don't represent the working class people one bit as far as i see it.
And how has two terms of Tory government been working out for you? Feeling richer?
Mainstream politics has left the working classes behind, I don't disagree. the left has lost site of its roots and the right has never really been for the good of all. The growth in the gap between the haves and the have nots has continued under successive governments - New Labour, Lib Con coalition, Conservative. All three have failed to stop the trend.
I was against Brexit but it made more sense as a protest vote, even if I believe it will back fire on the very people who most hope it will change their lot in life. As I said above, my dislike for Trump is not about his right wing policies, not that I'd be a fan of them in al honesty, but it's about his social attitudes and it upsets me that so many people don't care more aboutbthatbside of things. Just like it upsets me that Brexit was used by some people as an excuse for racist behaviour that blackens the name of my country, of which I am proud.
I am, a lot richer. I've never ever been out of work under Tory government, my industry is booming and is only getting stronger.
Don't get me wrong I understand your point on trump, I'm glad he's not running over here cos he's a div, but he's the people's div. he's given a lot of people a lot of hope. Whether it comes to fruition I don't know. Yes people will vote for him and use it as an excuse for racist behaviour but you will always get things like that happening in any situation, it's the human race, unfortunately. People will hide their agendas with smoke screens.
World politics needs a big shake up, this, I feel, is undeniable and it looks like it's going to happen.
Your industry's booming? I thought the fucking gyppo cunts from Romania, the Slavs, the fucking Eastern Menace had decimated it? At least you're getting political representation from men of the fucking people Farage and Trump, men of great conscience and notions of social equality. What sort of shakeup did you have in mind? Death camps for Muslims?
The reason behind the silent majority, ladies and gentleman.
Why on earth would people not want to discuss issues when they get well thought out arguments like this back?
Why on earth would people not let off steam after learning that a narcissistic tyrant with no fucking clue about running a country is POTUS?
Grow up Leuth. I know this is a difficult time for you considering how focused you are on being this board's white knight but re-read what you just said to Greenie Junior and tell us honestly that you haven't been an absolute twonk there
@TelMc32 no bother about the grammar it's early and no coffee yet, no issue with people having an opinion but why are they labelled idiots the same as brexit voters.
Because the left are shitting themselves the realisation that us regular hard working, working class folk want and will get change is frightening to them and what do they do when they shit themselves and don't know what to say? They call names
The Labour movement that gave a meaningful voice to left wing politics was all about working class folk fighting for change in their favour. Why would I, as a person whose political stance is generally left of centre, be scared of working class folk? I am one myself, as is my wife and all our family.
What I'm scared of is a world where people think that foreigners and ethnic minorities are all to blame for their problems and then vote for millionaires who've never done a hard days work in their life because they've swallowed the hate filled lies, and over simplistic solutions that have been spat at them with barely disguised disdain by yet another bunch of self serving politicians who are using the people to get what serves them best, not what serves the people best.
This is just it though, labour is not for the working class. Not even close. They scream racist every time you bring up a genuine immigration related concern. I'm not silly enough to think that immigration is the cause of all problems, but it is a problem, I see it first hand quite often people being undercut for ridiculous prices from cheap Romanian work forces etc. Doesn't mean I want them sent home, just want things tightened up.
The left claim to be for the little people but when we've stood up to be counted and voted for change (brexit) labour cronies and other leftie, are trying to block it.
On my site, I don't know a single person whose voted for Labour, all ukip or Tory. Labour and the left don't represent the working class people one bit as far as i see it.
And how has two terms of Tory government been working out for you? Feeling richer?
Mainstream politics has left the working classes behind, I don't disagree. the left has lost site of its roots and the right has never really been for the good of all. The growth in the gap between the haves and the have nots has continued under successive governments - New Labour, Lib Con coalition, Conservative. All three have failed to stop the trend.
I was against Brexit but it made more sense as a protest vote, even if I believe it will back fire on the very people who most hope it will change their lot in life. As I said above, my dislike for Trump is not about his right wing policies, not that I'd be a fan of them in al honesty, but it's about his social attitudes and it upsets me that so many people don't care more aboutbthatbside of things. Just like it upsets me that Brexit was used by some people as an excuse for racist behaviour that blackens the name of my country, of which I am proud.
I am, a lot richer. I've never ever been out of work under Tory government, my industry is booming and is only getting stronger.
Don't get me wrong I understand your point on trump, I'm glad he's not running over here cos he's a div, but he's the people's div. he's given a lot of people a lot of hope. Whether it comes to fruition I don't know. Yes people will vote for him and use it as an excuse for racist behaviour but you will always get things like that happening in any situation, it's the human race, unfortunately. People will hide their agendas with smoke screens.
World politics needs a big shake up, this, I feel, is undeniable and it looks like it's going to happen.
What do you do that prevents you from being undercut by Romanians, whilst others are not able to GJ?
Is that a genuine question or a veiled dig....
Genuine question Daz. Even if it were a veiled dig, it would still be pertinent.
@TelMc32 no bother about the grammar it's early and no coffee yet, no issue with people having an opinion but why are they labelled idiots the same as brexit voters.
Because the left are shitting themselves the realisation that us regular hard working, working class folk want and will get change is frightening to them and what do they do when they shit themselves and don't know what to say? They call names
The Labour movement that gave a meaningful voice to left wing politics was all about working class folk fighting for change in their favour. Why would I, as a person whose political stance is generally left of centre, be scared of working class folk? I am one myself, as is my wife and all our family.
What I'm scared of is a world where people think that foreigners and ethnic minorities are all to blame for their problems and then vote for millionaires who've never done a hard days work in their life because they've swallowed the hate filled lies, and over simplistic solutions that have been spat at them with barely disguised disdain by yet another bunch of self serving politicians who are using the people to get what serves them best, not what serves the people best.
This is just it though, labour is not for the working class. Not even close. They scream racist every time you bring up a genuine immigration related concern. I'm not silly enough to think that immigration is the cause of all problems, but it is a problem, I see it first hand quite often people being undercut for ridiculous prices from cheap Romanian work forces etc. Doesn't mean I want them sent home, just want things tightened up.
The left claim to be for the little people but when we've stood up to be counted and voted for change (brexit) labour cronies and other leftie, are trying to block it.
On my site, I don't know a single person whose voted for Labour, all ukip or Tory. Labour and the left don't represent the working class people one bit as far as i see it.
And how has two terms of Tory government been working out for you? Feeling richer?
Mainstream politics has left the working classes behind, I don't disagree. the left has lost site of its roots and the right has never really been for the good of all. The growth in the gap between the haves and the have nots has continued under successive governments - New Labour, Lib Con coalition, Conservative. All three have failed to stop the trend.
I was against Brexit but it made more sense as a protest vote, even if I believe it will back fire on the very people who most hope it will change their lot in life. As I said above, my dislike for Trump is not about his right wing policies, not that I'd be a fan of them in al honesty, but it's about his social attitudes and it upsets me that so many people don't care more aboutbthatbside of things. Just like it upsets me that Brexit was used by some people as an excuse for racist behaviour that blackens the name of my country, of which I am proud.
I am, a lot richer. I've never ever been out of work under Tory government, my industry is booming and is only getting stronger.
Don't get me wrong I understand your point on trump, I'm glad he's not running over here cos he's a div, but he's the people's div. he's given a lot of people a lot of hope. Whether it comes to fruition I don't know. Yes people will vote for him and use it as an excuse for racist behaviour but you will always get things like that happening in any situation, it's the human race, unfortunately. People will hide their agendas with smoke screens.
World politics needs a big shake up, this, I feel, is undeniable and it looks like it's going to happen.
Your industry's booming? I thought the fucking gyppo cunts from Romania, the Slavs, the fucking Eastern Menace had decimated it? At least you're getting political representation from men of the fucking people Farage and Trump, men of great conscience and notions of social equality. What sort of shakeup did you have in mind? Death camps for Muslims?
The reason behind the silent majority, ladies and gentleman.
Why on earth would people not want to discuss issues when they get well thought out arguments like this back?
Why on earth would people not let off steam after learning that a narcissistic tyrant with no fucking clue about running a country is POTUS?
Grow up Leuth. I know this is a difficult time for you considering how focused you are on being this board's white knight but re-read what you just said to Greenie Junior and tell us honestly that you haven't been an absolute twonk there
Well, sure. What am I white-knighting this time, though? Eastern Europeans? The religion of Islam? The entire exploited working class? Seems like I'm white-knighting most of humanity
Yeah - was great the way he contradicted absolutely everything he said in the campaign. Respect for Clinton and the work she's done for America. Bringing together all races and religions. Finding common ground with other countries.
Yeah - was great the way he contradicted absolutely everything he said in the campaign. Respect for Clinton and the work she's done for America. Bringing together all races and religions. Finding common ground with other countries.
'Speech' by the way.
I really liked it, but.. Yeah. Not what I expected at all.
It was almost as though he was going to stop at any minute and say "Just kidding. She was a criminal, and we will send her to prison! What are we going to build?!".
@TelMc32 no bother about the grammar it's early and no coffee yet, no issue with people having an opinion but why are they labelled idiots the same as brexit voters.
Because the left are shitting themselves the realisation that us regular hard working, working class folk want and will get change is frightening to them and what do they do when they shit themselves and don't know what to say? They call names
The Labour movement that gave a meaningful voice to left wing politics was all about working class folk fighting for change in their favour. Why would I, as a person whose political stance is generally left of centre, be scared of working class folk? I am one myself, as is my wife and all our family.
What I'm scared of is a world where people think that foreigners and ethnic minorities are all to blame for their problems and then vote for millionaires who've never done a hard days work in their life because they've swallowed the hate filled lies, and over simplistic solutions that have been spat at them with barely disguised disdain by yet another bunch of self serving politicians who are using the people to get what serves them best, not what serves the people best.
This is just it though, labour is not for the working class. Not even close. They scream racist every time you bring up a genuine immigration related concern. I'm not silly enough to think that immigration is the cause of all problems, but it is a problem, I see it first hand quite often people being undercut for ridiculous prices from cheap Romanian work forces etc. Doesn't mean I want them sent home, just want things tightened up.
The left claim to be for the little people but when we've stood up to be counted and voted for change (brexit) labour cronies and other leftie, are trying to block it.
On my site, I don't know a single person whose voted for Labour, all ukip or Tory. Labour and the left don't represent the working class people one bit as far as i see it.
And how has two terms of Tory government been working out for you? Feeling richer?
Mainstream politics has left the working classes behind, I don't disagree. the left has lost site of its roots and the right has never really been for the good of all. The growth in the gap between the haves and the have nots has continued under successive governments - New Labour, Lib Con coalition, Conservative. All three have failed to stop the trend.
I was against Brexit but it made more sense as a protest vote, even if I believe it will back fire on the very people who most hope it will change their lot in life. As I said above, my dislike for Trump is not about his right wing policies, not that I'd be a fan of them in al honesty, but it's about his social attitudes and it upsets me that so many people don't care more aboutbthatbside of things. Just like it upsets me that Brexit was used by some people as an excuse for racist behaviour that blackens the name of my country, of which I am proud.
I am, a lot richer. I've never ever been out of work under Tory government, my industry is booming and is only getting stronger.
Don't get me wrong I understand your point on trump, I'm glad he's not running over here cos he's a div, but he's the people's div. he's given a lot of people a lot of hope. Whether it comes to fruition I don't know. Yes people will vote for him and use it as an excuse for racist behaviour but you will always get things like that happening in any situation, it's the human race, unfortunately. People will hide their agendas with smoke screens.
World politics needs a big shake up, this, I feel, is undeniable and it looks like it's going to happen.
Your industry's booming? I thought the fucking gyppo cunts from Romania, the Slavs, the fucking Eastern Menace had decimated it? At least you're getting political representation from men of the fucking people Farage and Trump, men of great conscience and notions of social equality. What sort of shakeup did you have in mind? Death camps for Muslims?
The reason behind the silent majority, ladies and gentleman.
Why on earth would people not want to discuss issues when they get well thought out arguments like this back?
Why on earth would people not let off steam after learning that a narcissistic tyrant with no fucking clue about running a country is POTUS?
Grow up Leuth. I know this is a difficult time for you considering how focused you are on being this board's white knight but re-read what you just said to Greenie Junior and tell us honestly that you haven't been an absolute twonk there
Well, sure. What am I white-knighting this time, though? Eastern Europeans? The religion of Islam? The entire exploited working class? Seems like I'm white-knighting most of humanity
You're not white-knighting anything today, you're just being a silly boy. You accused Greenie Junior of being in favour of Muslim death camps because he's happy to have made more money under a Conservative government. That's an arsehole move and you know it. Go to bed.
There was at total of £1,344 matched on Betfair at 1000 on Trump being the next President. That's potentially £671,328 won and lost.
It's fortunate for all those layers out there that 999/1 is the ceiling price because I wouldn't mind betting that some would have been prepared to lay ten or even a hundred times that price for him getting elected.
Comments
But... Whatever those numbers were, they were not probability in any sense.
Sorry to hear about your concerns with healthcare. Hopefully you can find a way of keeping the protection.
The fact of the matter is that Clinton is, and always was, a weak candidate. After getting the nomination sorted via her pals at the DNC, she inspired precisely no-one. Her campaign got twisted into "don't vote for the bad man" instead of focusing on real issues and that failed to convince the public that she wasn't a weak candidate.
The candidate who would've beaten Trump in all this was Bernie Sanders. Such a missed opportunity.
The way I see it, this is gonna go one of two ways:
1. Trump gives it up with the first 100 days because he's won and that's enough for his ego
2. He sticks at it but when Congress and the Senate goes Democrat, he'll have trouble passing any noteworthy legislation
Try to keep it civil. I promise you if I can, when this election could have direct results on me, you can find it in your hearts to do it too. We're all Charlton (sorry MillwallFan). Most of us are Britons. Some of us live in the States. But we're all human and we're all doing the best we can.
Goodnight everyone.
For when Trump inevitably gets shot.
I can see him thinking "Oh Dad get on with it - I've got a Mortal Kombat game waiting for me". And Trump thinking much the same.
'Speech' by the way.
Just need Honey G for a massive four fold!!!
It was almost as though he was going to stop at any minute and say "Just kidding. She was a criminal, and we will send her to prison! What are we going to build?!".
It's fortunate for all those layers out there that 999/1 is the ceiling price because I wouldn't mind betting that some would have been prepared to lay ten or even a hundred times that price for him getting elected.
Chris Christie and Mike Pence will be the proxy president.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/mobile.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/magazine/how-donald-trump-picked-his-running-mate.amp.html?client=ms-android-htc