FTSE 250 down 6.2% today. Lower than Friday and currently at it's 52 week low. Looks like it'll probably go below 15,000 today. Don't worry, everything will be fine we've got our independence.
I'll bet on FTSE 100 ending at 5800 on Monday. Beyond that, not a clue. What do you reckon? Unlike @newyorkaddick, I don't see a buying opportunity, for ordinary mug punter investors unless there is a drop to 5500.
Deadly serious it's like a breath of fresh air has been blown over the country
So many people scared of the unknown and if that's your way of viewing the world then I can see why you voted to remain
Me I voted to leave because I have faith and real belief that this will hurt at the beginning but be much more beneficial in the long run for me and my kids and as such I am really looking forward to the future with more zest and vigour than before,
My view is welcoming. In the new and banishing the old
Tell you what mate, how about we treat you, your business and your life as CL bellweather for how Brexit is going.
I am serious, and mean it honourably. For the benefit of others, I know a little bit about your business. I greatly admire the decision you took to go into it, having decided there was no future in being a black cabbie. That was courageous, and is the type of entrepreurial decision that any country needs people to take, and be successful in.
I fear though that you have separated in your mind your business and other aspects of life, basically economics and politics. My little business is much smaller than yours, but I have been staggered to watch how its performance has been tied to the GDP of the country it sits in. (down, down down since 08, and then in the last 18 months, up again). Your business in addition is built on cross border activity across the EU as well as in non EU countries.
So, if you agree, let's re-visit this conversation for the first time just before Christmas, when you will have an idea of how 2017 is shaping up for you. Then a year from now, and 2 years from now.
Ok the kiddies have panicked again today. But not as bad as expected.
Give it a couple of days and all the "experts" will be saying "market oversold, correction gone too far, excellent buying opportunity". And watch the index go back up.
If you are 10 years away from retirement you will have very little invested in gilts. Most of your fund will be invested in equities. So how are you affected by changes in gilt yields?
The reason gilt yields are important, even if you are invested in equities, is because you are losing ground in making up the difference between the cash you invest and the growth it has to make relative to gilt prices in order to fund your target income.
I’ll try and explain. Over time, assume equities give a 5% real return and Gilts give a 2% real return. Investing in gilts from day one to buy a series of yields that match the income you need is the “risk free” guaranteed investment to achieve a given pension, it is the true cost of a pension. However, it’s unaffordable at 2% growth so you pay contributions which are less than the cost, and invest in equities, take a risk in order to make up the gap and buy your gilts later with the hopefully excess returns.
You need to assume a gilt price at your retirement date and work back to see what the contribution is required at a 5% real return and you have the optimum contribution calculation.
For periods that gilt yields are higher than equity returns you are losing ground. For periods that equity yields are less than 3% higher than gilt yields you are losing ground. That ground is only made up by equity returns for corresponding time periods exceeding the long term average of 5%. Getting your pension pot back to last year’s value, or a one off jump of 20% in value of your pension pot is an illusory improvement if gilt yields have moved to counter the asset growth.
The converse is that a fall in equity growth that is matched by a more than 3% increase in gilt yields is a positive, but tell the Daily Mail that when the headline reads - "Millions wiped off of pensions".
The truth is that only higher contributions and gilt prices make any significant difference, investment returns of 5% real above inflation are already factored in and if you get more than 5% it will be by luck.
Not to hard to find that out,some of you really do need to man the fuck up
The whole point is that - had we voted the other way - the economy would have been booming today. Pound soaring, and FTSE flying high.
Its not about ifs, buts or maybes. You are still in pre result mode. This is real life.
It is tanking BECAUSE of the choice the nation voted. You may as well have ticked a box that said 'economy tank from tomorrow please'.
Rome wasn't built in a day. We won't see the benefit for 5-10 years, but hopefully it will be a lot better for our children, who may find a decent paid job and be able to afford somewhere to live.
Covered End, have you used any apps before you recommend to trade shares / track prices, also how does it work these days, do you still get a paper share certificate, or do you get a certificate by email?
How much does it roughly cost to trade, any advice much appreciated!
I use Hargreaves Lansdown. I'm sure more experienced investors will use better places but their platform is easy to use and a wide selection of funds. App is decent too.
Not to hard to find that out,some of you really do need to man the fuck up
The whole point is that - had we voted the other way - the economy would have been booming today. Pound soaring, and FTSE flying high.
Its not about ifs, buts or maybes. You are still in pre result mode. This is real life.
It is tanking BECAUSE of the choice the nation voted. You may as well have ticked a box that said 'economy tank from tomorrow please'.
Rome wasn't built in a day. We won't see the benefit for 5-10 years, but hopefully it will be a lot better for our children, who may find a decent paid job and be able to afford somewhere to live.
Bugger the people that are struggling now then. There is a chance that one day in the future things might, potentially, if all goes to plan, best case scenario, be a bit better off than now. I mean they'll get to continue to pay back the deficit which is larger than it is now so there is that too, but 10 years further down the line people might be in a better position.
Covered End, have you used any apps before you recommend to trade shares / track prices, also how does it work these days, do you still get a paper share certificate, or do you get a certificate by email?
How much does it roughly cost to trade, any advice much appreciated!
CMC markets are a spread betting firm that do all that stuff similar to IG and I've heard they are decent
As mentioned above, our biggest enemy is uncertainty. Yet Dave is clinging onto power until October, then months to choose a negotiating team, then a debate about whether there should be an election before talks (YES) and then two years to agree terms, during which our stance has been weakened by time. Meanwhile our economy tanks due to uncertainty and national debt grows. Immigration continues, austerity multiplies and the rich move their money to tax havens. The Tory press will still blame Labour.
We have first mover advantage prior to the inevitable breakdown of the EU and Euro
We will become a global safe haven midway between the US and Asia, with a talented workforce, secure democracy and unique competitive advantages in several sectors.
I can understand you take that view before we lost our 'AAA' rating and lost to the mighty Iceland!
Meanwhile, Hedge funds bet aggressively against the pound - Traders believe sterling could fall as low as $1.10 and €1 in the coming weeks
Tell me @newyorkaddick what is this first move of which you speak? Enacting article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?
We are putting together a negotiation team so perhaps we should enroll Varoufakis that master game theorist?
FTSE 250 down 6.2% today. Lower than Friday and currently at it's 52 week low. Looks like it'll probably go below 15,000 today. Don't worry, everything will be fine we've got our independence.
Can we have hourly updates please? This is getting exciting.
Can you start a new thread when it hits a five year low?
Sure. How about a separate thread when your pension is worth 53p?
We have first mover advantage prior to the inevitable breakdown of the EU and Euro
We will become a global safe haven midway between the US and Asia, with a talented workforce, secure democracy and unique competitive advantages in several sectors.
I can understand you take that view before we lost our 'AAA' rating and lost to the mighty Iceland!
Meanwhile, Hedge funds bet aggressively against the pound - Traders believe sterling could fall as low as $1.10 and €1 in the coming weeks
Tell me @newyorkaddick what is this first move of which you speak? Enacting article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?
We are putting together a negotiation team so perhaps we should enroll Varoufakis that master game theorist?
Will please the father in law been waiting ages to bring his euros back
I don't think the fall in the FTSE 100 is of itself remarkable - yet - because it isn't really a UK index any more. It's got Russian companies on there. And some companies' values will be holding up as they are seen to benefit from a tanking pound. As @colthe3rd says, the FTSE250 is a better indicator of UK companies. I tend to use FTSE100 as a general heads up. Personally, and I don't pretend to be any kind of pro at this, I earmarked 5500 as my personal "buy" level earlier this year (although I wouldn't be buying much UK only stuff)
The other thing I do when things are really volatile is only invest 50% of my total at say 5500, and then hold back the rest to invest if the market drops another 5%.
And I only invest in funds. I think only someone doing it full time can really do well with shares. One fund that has done really well for me is Lindsell Train Global Equity. When I do buy, I'll be buying more of that one. Neil Woodford's fund is also an obvious solid choice. Let experts do the job, I say. I expect Michael Gove does his own leveraged spread betting.
The worst investment I ever made was around 2010 when I was finally spooked by my American conspiracy theorist mate who always predicts the end of the Western world. I bought a fund focused on gold mining and the like. It dropped 50% in a year.
My mate though has never invested in funds because of his bizarre beliefs. I like to remind him that when I first met him and his theory of the end of the world, the Dow was at 5,000....
Have a look at shareprice. Lowest trading fees I could find which add up when trading semi regularly. Also no annual charges either. Some good advice via the forums on there too
Not to hard to find that out,some of you really do need to man the fuck up
Pretty sure it happened in 2008 and everyone banged on about what a bunch of tossers bankers were/are for causing it. Now it seems that those that voted 'Leave' caused it we should all 'man the fuck up' rather than be upset about their selfish motives?
Interesting how people's perspectives change I guess.
Comments
The FTSE 250 fell to 5491 in 2008. So if it drops another 10,000 it will take us back to where we were under Labour
Btw the FTSE 100 is well below the 1999 high and was so before the referendum was called.
A sense of perspective is needed.
Hmmmmmm
Not to hard to find that out,some of you really do need to man the fuck up
a) have they happened in a couple of days ?
b) have they happened due to a situation that we've essentially brought upon ourselves ?
c) what point would the markets need to get to before you accepted that we have a problem ?
Give it a couple of days and all the "experts" will be saying "market oversold, correction gone too far, excellent buying opportunity". And watch the index go back up.
I hope.
Its not about ifs, buts or maybes. You are still in pre result mode. This is real life.
It is tanking BECAUSE of the choice the nation voted. You may as well have ticked a box that said 'economy tank from tomorrow please'.
Sounds like I should be asking covered end for tips, I don't think I'll beat retiring at 49 though!
I’ll try and explain. Over time, assume equities give a 5% real return and Gilts give a 2% real return. Investing in gilts from day one to buy a series of yields that match the income you need is the “risk free” guaranteed investment to achieve a given pension, it is the true cost of a pension. However, it’s unaffordable at 2% growth so you pay contributions which are less than the cost, and invest in equities, take a risk in order to make up the gap and buy your gilts later with the hopefully excess returns.
You need to assume a gilt price at your retirement date and work back to see what the contribution is required at a 5% real return and you have the optimum contribution calculation.
For periods that gilt yields are higher than equity returns you are losing ground. For periods that equity yields are less than 3% higher than gilt yields you are losing ground. That ground is only made up by equity returns for corresponding time periods exceeding the long term average of 5%. Getting your pension pot back to last year’s value, or a one off jump of 20% in value of your pension pot is an illusory improvement if gilt yields have moved to counter the asset growth.
The converse is that a fall in equity growth that is matched by a more than 3% increase in gilt yields is a positive, but tell the Daily Mail that when the headline reads - "Millions wiped off of pensions".
The truth is that only higher contributions and gilt prices make any significant difference, investment returns of 5% real above inflation are already factored in and if you get more than 5% it will be by luck.
The rest is guesswork on both sides.
The markets don't like uncertainty and you can't get anymore uncertain, than we are now.
As certainty & confidence returns the markets will rise, they always do.
We're in a bear market, it is the time to buy before the market rises, if you don't need the money for a minimum 5 years.
The difficulty I grant you, is picking the bottom, but this is virtually impossible.
However, I'm confident the markets will be higher in 5 years time than they will be in 2 months time.
Investing isn't over a few days, that's speculating.
How much does it roughly cost to trade, any advice much appreciated!
Meanwhile, Hedge funds bet aggressively against the pound - Traders believe sterling could fall as low as $1.10 and €1 in the coming weeks
Tell me @newyorkaddick what is this first move of which you speak? Enacting article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?
We are putting together a negotiation team so perhaps we should enroll Varoufakis that master game theorist?
When I say out I mean out
The other thing I do when things are really volatile is only invest 50% of my total at say 5500, and then hold back the rest to invest if the market drops another 5%.
And I only invest in funds. I think only someone doing it full time can really do well with shares. One fund that has done really well for me is Lindsell Train Global Equity. When I do buy, I'll be buying more of that one. Neil Woodford's fund is also an obvious solid choice. Let experts do the job, I say. I expect Michael Gove does his own leveraged spread betting.
The worst investment I ever made was around 2010 when I was finally spooked by my American conspiracy theorist mate who always predicts the end of the Western world. I bought a fund focused on gold mining and the like. It dropped 50% in a year.
My mate though has never invested in funds because of his bizarre beliefs. I like to remind him that when I first met him and his theory of the end of the world, the Dow was at 5,000....
Interesting how people's perspectives change I guess.