Having to stockpile food will be bad enough for the UK, but is there a realistic chance there could be a medicine shortage as well? Interested to know likelihood of this as I have an uncle going through chemotherapy at the moment.
I’d say pretty much anything is possible. I’d like to think that it won’t come to that, but for once I’d agree with Mr Hunt that the chances are growing day by day.
The most alarming thing is that our politicians still seem unsure of the consequences of a no deal scenario and are actively burying their heads in the sand.
The no deal scenario will not happen. Firstly it would never get through the Commons, and secondly the civil unrest would be unmanageable.
I still believe it will be EEA/EFTA or we stay.
I understand that the Commons has a natural majority against a no-deal scenario. However what worries me, is that like it or not, there is a deadline. One which we imposed. So what happens, and I am genuinely asking a question to which i don't know the answer, if the Govt. says in October we cannot secure a deal, so we leave without one, and the Commons votes against it? Sure they have voted against it, but what have they then told the Govt to do? Go back and continue negotiations? Maybe, but time is running out. The silly mare triggered Article 50. I don't think it is possible to say "oh hang on there's a bit of a delay here,, give us a few more months" is it? I know many EU people would like to facilitate the UK changing its mind, but as we keep being told, it's a rules based organisation. We triggered Article 50, not them. Out means Out. No?
I mean, i really am not sure, and would love to be wrong on this...on the technical point...
Having to stockpile food will be bad enough for the UK, but is there a realistic chance there could be a medicine shortage as well? Interested to know likelihood of this as I have an uncle going through chemotherapy at the moment.
I’d say pretty much anything is possible. I’d like to think that it won’t come to that, but for once I’d agree with Mr Hunt that the chances are growing day by day.
The most alarming thing is that our politicians still seem unsure of the consequences of a no deal scenario and are actively burying their heads in the sand.
The no deal scenario will not happen. Firstly it would never get through the Commons, and secondly the civil unrest would be unmanageable.
I still believe it will be EEA/EFTA or we stay.
I understand that the Commons has a natural majority against a no-deal scenario. However what worries me, is that like it or not, there is a deadline. One which we imposed. So what happens, and I am genuinely asking a question to which i don't know the answer, if the Govt. says in October we cannot secure a deal, so we leave without one, and the Commons votes against it? Sure they have voted against it, but what have they then told the Govt to do? Go back and continue negotiations? Maybe, but time is running out. The silly mare triggered Article 50. I don't think it is possible to say "oh hang on there's a bit of a delay here,, give us a few more months" is it? I know many EU people would like to facilitate the UK changing its mind, but as we keep being told, it's a rules based organisation. We triggered Article 50, not them. Out means Out. No?
I mean, i really am not sure, and would love to be wrong on this...on the technical point...
Anyone?
I think you’re right according to popular wisdom. I do think though that should the scenario you mention of The Commons refusing a no deal exit then the EU could well agree to extend the Article 50 process. I don’t think I can think of a reason why they would not.
Having to stockpile food will be bad enough for the UK, but is there a realistic chance there could be a medicine shortage as well? Interested to know likelihood of this as I have an uncle going through chemotherapy at the moment.
I’d say pretty much anything is possible. I’d like to think that it won’t come to that, but for once I’d agree with Mr Hunt that the chances are growing day by day.
The most alarming thing is that our politicians still seem unsure of the consequences of a no deal scenario and are actively burying their heads in the sand.
The no deal scenario will not happen. Firstly it would never get through the Commons, and secondly the civil unrest would be unmanageable.
I still believe it will be EEA/EFTA or we stay.
I understand that the Commons has a natural majority against a no-deal scenario. However what worries me, is that like it or not, there is a deadline. One which we imposed. So what happens, and I am genuinely asking a question to which i don't know the answer, if the Govt. says in October we cannot secure a deal, so we leave without one, and the Commons votes against it? Sure they have voted against it, but what have they then told the Govt to do? Go back and continue negotiations? Maybe, but time is running out. The silly mare triggered Article 50. I don't think it is possible to say "oh hang on there's a bit of a delay here,, give us a few more months" is it? I know many EU people would like to facilitate the UK changing its mind, but as we keep being told, it's a rules based organisation. We triggered Article 50, not them. Out means Out. No?
I mean, i really am not sure, and would love to be wrong on this...on the technical point...
Anyone?
I think you’re right according to popular wisdom. I do think though that should the scenario you mention of The Commons refusing a no deal exit then the EU could well agree to extend the Article 50 process. I don’t think I can think of a reason why they would not.
The trouble is that I am not sure of the process by which it would be possible to extend an Article 50 deadline. I believe there are conflicting theories about whether it is possible at all. That's what worries me. Worked with non-negotiable deadlines most of my working life. Not sure some of those tossers have.
Just seen the tragic new about shortage of Vets, caused by Brexit, must now think about voting Remain. Don't have any pets, dont want any but this will defo sway me! Stupid bird1
Do you think the fact that we will not be able to export livestock, due to having insufficient vets, might be a problem for farmers?
How many animals do we export? I thought we were a massive food importer?
Thousands. Sheep mainly. But also non-food animal exports.
Could be part of the reason that Wales has switched from being 52/48 Brexit two years ago in the referendum to latest poll if asked again now 73% remain
I wonder how many of them were farmers who received EU subsidies that still voted out. Truly astounding if they did.
Amid the news of Dover perhaps becoming a permanent lorry park, I checked what percentage of them voted out - 62.2%. Well played Dover.
Not unrelated to the above, either Kent County Council are telling porkies or the government are...
Having to stockpile food will be bad enough for the UK, but is there a realistic chance there could be a medicine shortage as well? Interested to know likelihood of this as I have an uncle going through chemotherapy at the moment.
I’d say pretty much anything is possible. I’d like to think that it won’t come to that, but for once I’d agree with Mr Hunt that the chances are growing day by day.
The most alarming thing is that our politicians still seem unsure of the consequences of a no deal scenario and are actively burying their heads in the sand.
The no deal scenario will not happen. Firstly it would never get through the Commons, and secondly the civil unrest would be unmanageable.
I still believe it will be EEA/EFTA or we stay.
I understand that the Commons has a natural majority against a no-deal scenario. However what worries me, is that like it or not, there is a deadline. One which we imposed. So what happens, and I am genuinely asking a question to which i don't know the answer, if the Govt. says in October we cannot secure a deal, so we leave without one, and the Commons votes against it? Sure they have voted against it, but what have they then told the Govt to do? Go back and continue negotiations? Maybe, but time is running out. The silly mare triggered Article 50. I don't think it is possible to say "oh hang on there's a bit of a delay here,, give us a few more months" is it? I know many EU people would like to facilitate the UK changing its mind, but as we keep being told, it's a rules based organisation. We triggered Article 50, not them. Out means Out. No?
I mean, i really am not sure, and would love to be wrong on this...on the technical point...
Anyone?
I thought I heard on Newsnight / This week that The Commons would "urge" TM to go back to the EU and either ask for another deal or an extension to the deadline of 29/03.
fwiw.....I don't think we will crash out with No Deal. Too important to both sides that this doesn't happen. Lots of posturing from both sides up until then but when push comes to shove an agreement of sorts will be reached.
I like this from the Sun article, referring to last year's queues at airports:
'The chaos sparked fears that Brussels will force Brits flying to the Continent to queue in slower lanes with all other non-EU citizens from the end of the transition period'
What do The Sun and its readers expect to happen if the UK is no longer in the EU? Do they think that Brits should maintain a special status over other non EU citizens? Classic passing the blame on to the EU vocabulary as well.
I like this from the Sun article, referring to last year's queues at airports:
'The chaos sparked fears that Brussels will force Brits flying to the Continent to queue in slower lanes with all other non-EU citizens from the end of the transition period'
What do The Sun and its readers expect to happen if the UK is no longer in the EU? Do they think that Brits should maintain a special status over other non EU citizens? Classic passing the blame on to the EU vocabulary as well.
Having to stockpile food will be bad enough for the UK, but is there a realistic chance there could be a medicine shortage as well? Interested to know likelihood of this as I have an uncle going through chemotherapy at the moment.
I’d say pretty much anything is possible. I’d like to think that it won’t come to that, but for once I’d agree with Mr Hunt that the chances are growing day by day.
The most alarming thing is that our politicians still seem unsure of the consequences of a no deal scenario and are actively burying their heads in the sand.
The no deal scenario will not happen. Firstly it would never get through the Commons, and secondly the civil unrest would be unmanageable.
I still believe it will be EEA/EFTA or we stay.
I understand that the Commons has a natural majority against a no-deal scenario. However what worries me, is that like it or not, there is a deadline. One which we imposed. So what happens, and I am genuinely asking a question to which i don't know the answer, if the Govt. says in October we cannot secure a deal, so we leave without one, and the Commons votes against it? Sure they have voted against it, but what have they then told the Govt to do? Go back and continue negotiations? Maybe, but time is running out. The silly mare triggered Article 50. I don't think it is possible to say "oh hang on there's a bit of a delay here,, give us a few more months" is it? I know many EU people would like to facilitate the UK changing its mind, but as we keep being told, it's a rules based organisation. We triggered Article 50, not them. Out means Out. No?
I mean, i really am not sure, and would love to be wrong on this...on the technical point...
Anyone?
I think you’re right according to popular wisdom. I do think though that should the scenario you mention of The Commons refusing a no deal exit then the EU could well agree to extend the Article 50 process. I don’t think I can think of a reason why they would not.
Is it time to call it? Has the tide turned? I look at that poll, and at this thread in recent weeks....the Brexiteers seem shot to pieces, it's just trolling posts now. I won't nudge him any more, but poor old Dippenhall could not even explain to me how Brexit will solve the productivity crisis that he himself identified as a reason why the economy lags others.
When did you last hear a new fact that strengthened the case for Brexit?
It just might be, there still won’t be a second vote though.
If I'd said the productivity crisis would be solved by Brexit I might have answered you.
The point I try and make that you choose to not hear is that the impact of poor productivity growth over the last 8 years is three times greater than the worst prediction for negative GDP impact over the next 20 years. Why are you not on the streets protesting about productivity.
Adults would have debated the impact of no deal at the beginning and worked out solutions instead of saying we can't talk about mutually beneficial objectives only how we stick to EU process.
Protesting who or what? Has the government got a policy of encouraging poor productivity and punishing better productivity? Was there a referendum where 52% of the population voted to be as unproductive as possible?
What you're saying makes no sense. Of course productivity needs to be improved, but it's is completely unrelated to the EU (as can be proved by the greater productivity across the euro zone), so why do you keep bringing up?
It's like having a go at women's rights campaignings who are attacking the government over the poor rape conviction rates by asking why they aren't protesting against prostate cancer as it kills more people.
Do the EU27 all individually need to agree on an Article 50 extension? If so we might be in trouble.
The whole thing is such an utter mess and very little will happen in Auguest due to the Parliamentry recess and by September it will be too late. Come March we will crash out without a deal.
Do the EU27 all individually need to agree on an Article 50 extension? If so we might be in trouble.
The whole thing is such an utter mess and very little will happen in Auguest due to the Parliamentry recess and by September it will be too late. Come March we will crash out without a deal.
It's never happened of course but I can't see why there wouldn't be a requirement for all EU27 countries to agree to extend the Article 50 notice period. If it looks like the UK are close to agreeing a Norway style position I can see it being ageed. If we are still arguing with ourselves about what we want I can't. I think we over rate ourselves and think the EU is equally as paralysed and obsessed with Brexit as we are. The reality is they ar mostly getting on with it whilst waiting for us to pull our finger out.
The EU27 has domestic pressures too, including businesses that hate uncertainty and just want to crack on so I don't think it's a foregone conclusion we would get an extension.
In the meantime, The Sun and its readers still think we can have our cake and eat it evidently. At what point the effing penny will drop is anyone's guess!!!
Do the EU27 all individually need to agree on an Article 50 extension? If so we might be in trouble.
The whole thing is such an utter mess and very little will happen in Auguest due to the Parliamentry recess and by September it will be too late. Come March we will crash out without a deal.
I would imagine that the 27 would indeed all need to agree although that’s something that could almost be agreed in advance behind closed doors. It is without doubt that the best case scenario for the 27 and us is for Brexit to be reversed. I think they would play ball with a scenario that could well lead to that happening.
Do the EU27 all individually need to agree on an Article 50 extension? If so we might be in trouble.
The whole thing is such an utter mess and very little will happen in Auguest due to the Parliamentry recess and by September it will be too late. Come March we will crash out without a deal.
I would imagine that the 27 would indeed all need to agree although that’s something that could almost be agreed in advance behind closed doors. It is without doubt that the best case scenario for the 27 and us is for Brexit to be reversed. I think they would play ball with a scenario that could well lead to that happening.
Right, I think they would agree to cancel it, but I don’t think they’d agree to extend it given that we are a million miles from an actual deal.
Do the EU27 all individually need to agree on an Article 50 extension? If so we might be in trouble.
The whole thing is such an utter mess and very little will happen in Auguest due to the Parliamentry recess and by September it will be too late. Come March we will crash out without a deal.
I would imagine that the 27 would indeed all need to agree although that’s something that could almost be agreed in advance behind closed doors. It is without doubt that the best case scenario for the 27 and us is for Brexit to be reversed. I think they would play ball with a scenario that could well lead to that happening.
Right, I think they would agree to cancel it, but I don’t think they’d agree to extend it given that we are a million miles from an actual deal.
If it meant for example a plan for another referendum then I believe they would agree to extend the 2 year Article 50 timescale.
Do the EU27 all individually need to agree on an Article 50 extension? If so we might be in trouble.
The whole thing is such an utter mess and very little will happen in Auguest due to the Parliamentry recess and by September it will be too late. Come March we will crash out without a deal.
I would imagine that the 27 would indeed all need to agree although that’s something that could almost be agreed in advance behind closed doors. It is without doubt that the best case scenario for the 27 and us is for Brexit to be reversed. I think they would play ball with a scenario that could well lead to that happening.
Right, I think they would agree to cancel it, but I don’t think they’d agree to extend it given that we are a million miles from an actual deal.
Agree behind closed doors. Like May did with her White Paper which was dismissed by EU as soon as they read it. This doesn't sit with the Tory blame game.
That’s a good article and fits in with my view of Brexit. The problem with Alaistair Campbell is that he is so disliked by so many people that his views and opinion is likely to antagonise rather than help.
Is it time to call it? Has the tide turned? I look at that poll, and at this thread in recent weeks....the Brexiteers seem shot to pieces, it's just trolling posts now. I won't nudge him any more, but poor old Dippenhall could not even explain to me how Brexit will solve the productivity crisis that he himself identified as a reason why the economy lags others.
When did you last hear a new fact that strengthened the case for Brexit?
It just might be, there still won’t be a second vote though.
If I'd said the productivity crisis would be solved by Brexit I might have answered you.
The point I try and make that you choose to not hear is that the impact of poor productivity growth over the last 8 years is three times greater than the worst prediction for negative GDP impact over the next 20 years. Why are you not on the streets protesting about productivity.
Adults would have debated the impact of no deal at the beginning and worked out solutions instead of saying we can't talk about mutually beneficial objectives only how we stick to EU process.
Protesting who or what? Has the government got a policy of encouraging poor productivity and punishing better productivity? Was there a referendum where 52% of the population voted to be as unproductive as possible?
What you're saying makes no sense. Of course productivity needs to be improved, but it's is completely unrelated to the EU (as can be proved by the greater productivity across the euro zone), so why do you keep bringing up?
It's like having a go at women's rights campaignings who are attacking the government over the poor rape conviction rates by asking why they aren't protesting against prostate cancer as it kills more people.
DID I SAY PRODUCTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE EU????
FFS I keep bringing it up because of the mindless replies that suggest most Remainers don't understand the English language. Or it could be that when your head is stuck up your arse it filters out anything that doesn't fit with the rules of Project Fear.
I'll put it another way.
If Remainers are wetting their knickers about a 7.9% negative impact on GDP as a result of Brexit over 20 years +, they would have been shitting themselves had they been told in 2009 that GDP would be 20% lower in 2017 as a result of stagnating GDP growth.
Given that the main plank of the Remainer's argument for voting Leave was the predictions of the impact on GDP, I stupidly thought putting the figure into some context might warrant a re-appraisal of the strength of argument against Brexit.
Is it time to call it? Has the tide turned? I look at that poll, and at this thread in recent weeks....the Brexiteers seem shot to pieces, it's just trolling posts now. I won't nudge him any more, but poor old Dippenhall could not even explain to me how Brexit will solve the productivity crisis that he himself identified as a reason why the economy lags others.
When did you last hear a new fact that strengthened the case for Brexit?
It just might be, there still won’t be a second vote though.
If I'd said the productivity crisis would be solved by Brexit I might have answered you.
The point I try and make that you choose to not hear is that the impact of poor productivity growth over the last 8 years is three times greater than the worst prediction for negative GDP impact over the next 20 years. Why are you not on the streets protesting about productivity.
Adults would have debated the impact of no deal at the beginning and worked out solutions instead of saying we can't talk about mutually beneficial objectives only how we stick to EU process.
Protesting who or what? Has the government got a policy of encouraging poor productivity and punishing better productivity? Was there a referendum where 52% of the population voted to be as unproductive as possible?
What you're saying makes no sense. Of course productivity needs to be improved, but it's is completely unrelated to the EU (as can be proved by the greater productivity across the euro zone), so why do you keep bringing up?
It's like having a go at women's rights campaignings who are attacking the government over the poor rape conviction rates by asking why they aren't protesting against prostate cancer as it kills more people.
DID I SAY PRODUCTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE EU????
FFS I keep bringing it up because of the mindless replies that suggest most Remainers don't understand the English language. Or it could be that when your head is stuck up your arse it filters out anything that doesn't fit with the rules of Project Fear.
I'll put it another way.
If Remainers are wetting their knickers about a 7.9% negative impact on GDP as a result of Brexit over 20 years +, they would have been shitting themselves had they been told in 2009 that GDP would be 20% lower in 2017 as a result of stagnating GDP growth.
Given that the main plank of the Remainer's argument for voting Leave was the predictions of the impact on GDP, I stupidly thought putting the figure into some context might warrant a re-appraisal of the strength of argument against Brexit.
I agree I am stupid.
I certainly didn't read that you blame the EU for poor productivity - and I agree that tackling the productivity problem would go a long way to mitigate any loss in GDP as a result of Brexit.
What I would observe though is that because the EU are not responsible for our appalling productivity, would it not be possible to improve said productivity whilst remaining in the EU? That way we don't suffer the leaving hit on GDP and add to GDP by increasing productivity - a double whammy! If it has always been in our hands to correct the productivity issue then why the f*ck haven't we done it?
Costumes made purely of blue passports, which will be the only commodity freely available form March 2019.
They have got to be shipped from France so could be caught up at Calais for three years.
Nah the homeless, starving paupers will eat them as soon as the sailing ship arrives in Dover and before the precious cargo can leave on a horse and cart, bound for Elstree Studios.
Costumes made purely of blue passports, which will be the only commodity freely available form March 2019.
They have got to be shipped from France so could be caught up at Calais for three years.
Nah the homeless, starving paupers will eat them as soon as the sailing ship arrives in Dover and before the precious cargo can leave on a horse and cart, bound for Elstree Studios.
If next year's Love Island is ruined there will be rioting on the streets!
1 hour long, I am only a quarter through but it is very good. One of the 3 blokes is Ciaran the White Van Driver. I would really like @nth london addick who as I understand is an owner of a very similar business, to listen to what he says and then tell us why he is wrong.
Comments
I mean, i really am not sure, and would love to be wrong on this...on the technical point...
Anyone?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6909834/pm-overrule-sajid-javid-brexit-lanes/
fwiw.....I don't think we will crash out with No Deal. Too important to both sides that this doesn't happen. Lots of posturing from both sides up until then but when push comes to shove an agreement of sorts will be reached.
'The chaos sparked fears that Brussels will force Brits flying to the Continent to queue in slower lanes with all other non-EU citizens from the end of the transition period'
What do The Sun and its readers expect to happen if the UK is no longer in the EU? Do they think that Brits should maintain a special status over other non EU citizens? Classic passing the blame on to the EU vocabulary as well.
What you're saying makes no sense. Of course productivity needs to be improved, but it's is completely unrelated to the EU (as can be proved by the greater productivity across the euro zone), so why do you keep bringing up?
It's like having a go at women's rights campaignings who are attacking the government over the poor rape conviction rates by asking why they aren't protesting against prostate cancer as it kills more people.
The whole thing is such an utter mess and very little will happen in Auguest due to the Parliamentry recess and by September it will be too late. Come March we will crash out without a deal.
The EU27 has domestic pressures too, including businesses that hate uncertainty and just want to crack on so I don't think it's a foregone conclusion we would get an extension.
In the meantime, The Sun and its readers still think we can have our cake and eat it evidently. At what point the effing penny will drop is anyone's guess!!!
FFS I keep bringing it up because of the mindless replies that suggest most Remainers don't understand the English language. Or it could be that when your head is stuck up your arse it filters out anything that doesn't fit with the rules of Project Fear.
I'll put it another way.
If Remainers are wetting their knickers about a 7.9% negative impact on GDP as a result of Brexit over 20 years +, they would have been shitting themselves had they been told in 2009 that GDP would be 20% lower in 2017 as a result of stagnating GDP growth.
Given that the main plank of the Remainer's argument for voting Leave was the predictions of the impact on GDP, I stupidly thought putting the figure into some context might warrant a re-appraisal of the strength of argument against Brexit.
I agree I am stupid.
What I would observe though is that because the EU are not responsible for our appalling productivity, would it not be possible to improve said productivity whilst remaining in the EU? That way we don't suffer the leaving hit on GDP and add to GDP by increasing productivity - a double whammy! If it has always been in our hands to correct the productivity issue then why the f*ck haven't we done it?
Am I missing something?
1 hour long, I am only a quarter through but it is very good. One of the 3 blokes is Ciaran the White Van Driver. I would really like @nth london addick who as I understand is an owner of a very similar business, to listen to what he says and then tell us why he is wrong.