Paddy: so what does that mean to you then? BIGGGGGG WINNNNNN?
Haha, if only! Nah, just a bit of confidence in what I've heard. I much prefer hunting at bigger odds, though having had her in a multiple with some small change was welcome
not too good overall .. a nice big wager on Samcro has kept me ahead .. Davy Russell, many thanks ((:>) .. a nose can be the difference between a mansion or the gutter lol (bit over dramatic there)
4.50 - This is a race I really don't care about. The classic proposition is to follow Willie Mullins, and I am informed from a friend that Concertista (4/1) is the pick of the bunch and should run a lot better than those form figures suggest. Fair enough. That said... if Willie tells me it's raining, I'll be looking outside. In this case, not outside the stables, but outside Concertista's horse box to Dolcita who has not run much at all and at 9/1, seems a good prospect. But whatever. Not a race I have a vested interest in.
I now care an awful, awful lot about this race...
Nice one Paddy - form is temporary, class is permanent
That said, it is dismaying that we see such a prompt contribution whenever a death of a horse is made known, especially as this is ground well trod on CL.
Right. Decent day yesterday - hopefully the momentum continues!
1.30 - A lot of really decent looking horses in this race. I'm also amazed and intrigued that Will Hill are offering a mammoth FIVE places! So there could be value in a longer-odds horse. But sticking near the head of the market, I think Allmankind (9/2 generally) could be a very tasty horse. He's won at the course already, beaten another runner in this race by 9L in Cerberus, and I think his ability to finish well will bode well up the hill. Obviously Goshen and Solo are good prospects too, and head the market for a reason, but I think they're a bit skinny in the odds. At the longer odds I quite like Navajo Pass (33/1 each way - Hills, five places) as Cheltenham could suit him, despite the step up. Sir Psycho (11s, Hills) worth considering too especially as winning form has been franked recently.
2.10 - Ugh. Throw a dart at the card! You're getting five places with most and six with a handful here, so thievery abounds. Another race for trends and stats - Mullins and Nicholls have historically done well here, with Gigginstown having sent eight runners with zero return. This for me rules out Embittered despite - interestingly - being the sole G-town runner. The top three in the market are all Mullins runners, and amazingly we've seen Barry Geraghty win two handicaps this year (despite historically being terrible in them!), so for the win, it might be worth siding with the favourite in Saint Roi (6/1 or 11/2 generally), who won well LTO and has the benefit of Mullins, Geraghty and JP's colours. But I prefer longer odds. To that end I'm also going to go with handicap master Davy Russell on Gordon Elliott's charge Thatsy (12/1) who can find improvement. I will also chance a third one each-way in the form of Rathhill (28/1 Hills) as he's had a wind op since last run, and Henderson has spoken highly of him. Nico on board, JP's colours - nice price; let's go. Others to keep half an eye on (at the bigger odds) are Oakley, Sir Valentine and maybe Zanza (who's a boom or bust proposition).
2.50 - The Potato Race. Four places at various places, so shop around. But I think the head of the market is all you really need to consider and it's Thyme Hill (5/1 generally) who I'd want for the win. Third in last year's Bumper looks amazing now and in beating The Cashel Man, there's loads to like about him especially as he works hard which you need on the run-in. But there's definitely a bit of value elsewhere each-way and I think the best of it is found in Harry Senior (12s or 14s) who looks bred for the trip. He was very strong at the finish over 2m4f LTO and keeps improving. There's all sorts to consider in the race though, with Ramses De Teillee a fascinating contender, and Cobbler's Way an unexposed type hailing from a yard in red-hot form. And the head of the market can't be ignored either - there's just too many to name-check!
3.30 - Oh yes, this is where it's at. I think the ground has dried sufficiently enough for me to be siding for win purposes with the excellent Delta Work (5/1), whose form figures on better than Soft read 212111111 (on Soft or slower: 33243134). Gordon Elliott, again, is doing fantastic work with him and the form of his Grade 1 victories is really strong and perfect for this today. I absolutely would not begrudge Al Boum Photo the win though, who has looked very good in his prep, while I don't think Santini wants this ground (excellent though he is). We're looking at a star-studded field for place purposes, and most bookies only offering top three (Sky offering 5 but decimating odds). I think I like Kemboy (10/1) to push on from his last run behind Delta Work though despite being fairly beaten, as that's what happened last year. If at his best he is more than capable of winning this - we can excuse the fall at the first last year as he was squeezed very very tight for room. But there's so many top class horses here, go with who you want and there's always a case to be made.
4.10 - I never know much about this race especially as so many prospects are from the point-to-point sphere, but there are a few names that catch the eye and a few decent horses at decent odds. I think the top three in the market are priced about right, and I'd rather look at the longer odds, so I'll start with Alcala (25/1 bet365, five places), as Paul Nicholls has won this four times, and his best handicap form would suggest he can run better than 25s. ... Okay, so I said long odds, but I'm going to be a bit scummy and recommend Shantou Flyer (8/1, Paddy Power, 5 places) each way also: he loves Cheltenham, hit the crossbar in both this race and the Ultima, and has won fairly enough last couple out. If we get particularly drying ground, keep an eye on Law of Gold, and I'm also cheering on Don Poli who may yet be a bit more confident after two point wins.
4.50 - A lot to like here, again, at longer odds. But I'll start with Gigginstown's preferred runner in Eclair de Beaufeu (7/1) who has run really well last time out to beat Paloma Blue, and Gordon Elliott - as I've said - is in great form, so well worth a win poke (or each way if you're thieving!). Five places on offer so lots of EW scope here. I'm not ignoring the top of the market - just it doesn't interest me for tipping purposes. I'll recommend two others based on a mixture of course form, race form, and odds: they are Gino Trail (20s) and Croco Bay (28s or so). Both love this race, and love Cheltenham, and work really hard - so here's hoping. Adrrastos could be worth keeping an eye on in the market. But this is a race that I don't particularly prep for - caveat emptor.
5.30 - The finale, and one that's been dominated by Gigginstown/Mullins/Nicholls in terms of value over the years. David Pipe will of course want to win this but I don't think Umbrigado is quite the right horse, but he didn't stay 3m last time out so I don't really know what to make of it. There's all sorts to choose from and I think I'll side with three: Assemble (16/1) looks very closely matched to favourite Front View at the weights and is quadruple the price, and as a Gigginstown runner worth an extra look at. I think Five O'Clock (9/1) under Mullins - won three of the last nine - is worth a good go as well, as he was the winner from Assemble and Front View at Thurles, and could be even better for that here. Finally, at bigger odds, the unexposed Espoir de Romay (25/1) has had form franked after winning with loads in hand last time out: the second-placed horse that day was on a four timer, then resumed winning since. Very interesting end to the day and let's hope it's one I've called correctly!
------------
I know that's seventeen horses in bold, but even so, just a few thoughts. Happy hunting!
Backing your excellent olfactory receptors today as regards outsiders to be with at Cheltenham @PaddyP17 Cheers for the very interesting heads-up each day. Good luck to all.
Comments
Pulled up between fences rather than an injury from a fall. Not sure what kind of extra safety measures would have prevented such a tragic incident.
Gone for the obvious Al Boum Photo & Delta Work .. both to win and reverse forecasts
Means I'm slightly up even if my last race bets fall flat. Can't complain!
Well done.
1:30 Goshen
Burning Victory
4:50 Greaneteen (bet of the day)
5:30 Column Of Fire
Espoir De Romay
2.10 - Ugh. Throw a dart at the card! You're getting five places with most and six with a handful here, so thievery abounds. Another race for trends and stats - Mullins and Nicholls have historically done well here, with Gigginstown having sent eight runners with zero return. This for me rules out Embittered despite - interestingly - being the sole G-town runner. The top three in the market are all Mullins runners, and amazingly we've seen Barry Geraghty win two handicaps this year (despite historically being terrible in them!), so for the win, it might be worth siding with the favourite in Saint Roi (6/1 or 11/2 generally), who won well LTO and has the benefit of Mullins, Geraghty and JP's colours. But I prefer longer odds. To that end I'm also going to go with handicap master Davy Russell on Gordon Elliott's charge Thatsy (12/1) who can find improvement. I will also chance a third one each-way in the form of Rathhill (28/1 Hills) as he's had a wind op since last run, and Henderson has spoken highly of him. Nico on board, JP's colours - nice price; let's go. Others to keep half an eye on (at the bigger odds) are Oakley, Sir Valentine and maybe Zanza (who's a boom or bust proposition).
2.50 - The Potato Race. Four places at various places, so shop around. But I think the head of the market is all you really need to consider and it's Thyme Hill (5/1 generally) who I'd want for the win. Third in last year's Bumper looks amazing now and in beating The Cashel Man, there's loads to like about him especially as he works hard which you need on the run-in. But there's definitely a bit of value elsewhere each-way and I think the best of it is found in Harry Senior (12s or 14s) who looks bred for the trip. He was very strong at the finish over 2m4f LTO and keeps improving. There's all sorts to consider in the race though, with Ramses De Teillee a fascinating contender, and Cobbler's Way an unexposed type hailing from a yard in red-hot form. And the head of the market can't be ignored either - there's just too many to name-check!
3.30 - Oh yes, this is where it's at. I think the ground has dried sufficiently enough for me to be siding for win purposes with the excellent Delta Work (5/1), whose form figures on better than Soft read 212111111 (on Soft or slower: 33243134). Gordon Elliott, again, is doing fantastic work with him and the form of his Grade 1 victories is really strong and perfect for this today. I absolutely would not begrudge Al Boum Photo the win though, who has looked very good in his prep, while I don't think Santini wants this ground (excellent though he is). We're looking at a star-studded field for place purposes, and most bookies only offering top three (Sky offering 5 but decimating odds). I think I like Kemboy (10/1) to push on from his last run behind Delta Work though despite being fairly beaten, as that's what happened last year. If at his best he is more than capable of winning this - we can excuse the fall at the first last year as he was squeezed very very tight for room. But there's so many top class horses here, go with who you want and there's always a case to be made.
4.10 - I never know much about this race especially as so many prospects are from the point-to-point sphere, but there are a few names that catch the eye and a few decent horses at decent odds. I think the top three in the market are priced about right, and I'd rather look at the longer odds, so I'll start with Alcala (25/1 bet365, five places), as Paul Nicholls has won this four times, and his best handicap form would suggest he can run better than 25s. ... Okay, so I said long odds, but I'm going to be a bit scummy and recommend Shantou Flyer (8/1, Paddy Power, 5 places) each way also: he loves Cheltenham, hit the crossbar in both this race and the Ultima, and has won fairly enough last couple out. If we get particularly drying ground, keep an eye on Law of Gold, and I'm also cheering on Don Poli who may yet be a bit more confident after two point wins.
4.50 - A lot to like here, again, at longer odds. But I'll start with Gigginstown's preferred runner in Eclair de Beaufeu (7/1) who has run really well last time out to beat Paloma Blue, and Gordon Elliott - as I've said - is in great form, so well worth a win poke (or each way if you're thieving!). Five places on offer so lots of EW scope here. I'm not ignoring the top of the market - just it doesn't interest me for tipping purposes. I'll recommend two others based on a mixture of course form, race form, and odds: they are Gino Trail (20s) and Croco Bay (28s or so). Both love this race, and love Cheltenham, and work really hard - so here's hoping. Adrrastos could be worth keeping an eye on in the market. But this is a race that I don't particularly prep for - caveat emptor.
5.30 - The finale, and one that's been dominated by Gigginstown/Mullins/Nicholls in terms of value over the years. David Pipe will of course want to win this but I don't think Umbrigado is quite the right horse, but he didn't stay 3m last time out so I don't really know what to make of it. There's all sorts to choose from and I think I'll side with three: Assemble (16/1) looks very closely matched to favourite Front View at the weights and is quadruple the price, and as a Gigginstown runner worth an extra look at. I think Five O'Clock (9/1) under Mullins - won three of the last nine - is worth a good go as well, as he was the winner from Assemble and Front View at Thurles, and could be even better for that here. Finally, at bigger odds, the unexposed Espoir de Romay (25/1) has had form franked after winning with loads in hand last time out: the second-placed horse that day was on a four timer, then resumed winning since. Very interesting end to the day and let's hope it's one I've called correctly!
------------
I know that's seventeen horses in bold, but even so, just a few thoughts. Happy hunting!
I'll put up my own selections with points outlay for today.
1:30 Goshen 1.5pt
Burning Victory 0.5pt
2:10 Saint Roi 0.5pt
Aramon 0.5pt
2:50 Monkfish 0.5pt ew
3:30 Kemboy 0.5pt ew
4:50 Greaneteen 1.5pt
5:30 Column Of Fire 1pt
Espoir De Romay 0.5pt
I'm leaving the foxhunters alone
Good luck everyone
Form on soft or slower 33243134
Form on quicker than soft 212111111
Cheers for the very interesting heads-up each day.
Good luck to all.