Lots of people have been discussing how exactly is best to finish the season, if at all possible. So it’s got me thinking, and I have came up with a way of finishing the season, without even having to play any of the games. People can shoot down this idea and that’s fine, but hear me out...
Take the results of the reverse fixtures that are remaining and add them to the current standings. For example, we would draw 2-2 with Hull, best Reading 2-0 but lose 2-0 to Wigan etc.
I have worked this out for both the Premier League and for The Championship. The difference in current league positions are tiny. In fact, the current top 6 in The Championship remain exactly the same, just West Brom finish top whilst Leeds finish second.
To make this theory more reliable, I also took data of every single clubs league position in each game week of the season so far. I then performed a mean, median, and a mode of each club’s league position. What I done next was to then take an overall average of the three averages. This was to get a true representation of where each club has spent the vast majority of the season.
What I done next was use statistical analysis tests to investigate the accuracy and reliability of comparing the overall average league positions to where each club would finish in the table if you took the results of the reverse fixtures.
In the Premier League, the ‘theoretical table’ against their averaged average league position was 97.38% correlated and the same. In The Championship, it was even closer with 98.26% correlated and the same.
I have all the data if people are actually interested further in what I am trying to explain.
I’ve emailed this proposal over to The EFL and am actually awaiting their reply.
You can think I am mad, and that’s fine. But it’s an idea that I’ve developed and statistically shows that it works. For this idea, it doesn’t have to include relegation as it wouldn’t be entirely fair for a club to be relegated on a statistical solution, even if their league position and form through the season has shown that’s where they should be.
Incidentally, we would survive and finish in 18th. But that’s not why I’ve done this.
For anyone arguing the idea, that’s good, debate is good. But this idea takes into account different periods of form throughout the season and takes into account an overall average league position of each club.
Good shout and to be honest as good as any other scenario but it wont happen. I mean whoever would get relegated from our league in 3rd bottom would feel very hard done by. I think a better thing to do is just end the season and award promotions and relegation where all but confirmed( that in itself is a can of worms though).
I think the main takeaway from all this should be , everyone should be in mindset of whatever they decide we simply have to embrace and look at the bigger picture.
Lots of people have been discussing how exactly is best to finish the season, if at all possible. So it’s got me thinking, and I have came up with a way of finishing the season, without even having to play any of the games. People can shoot down this idea and that’s fine, but hear me out...
Take the results of the reverse fixtures that are remaining and add them to the current standings. For example, we would draw 2-2 with Hull, beat Reading 2-0 but lose 2-0 to Wigan etc.
I have worked this out for both the Premier League and for The Championship. The difference in current league positions are tiny. In fact, the current top 6 in The Championship remain exactly the same, just West Brom finish top whilst Leeds finish second.
To make this theory more reliable, I also took data of every single clubs league position in each game week of the season so far. I then performed a mean, median, and a mode of each club’s league position throughout the season. What I done next was to then take an overall average of the three averages. This was to get a true representation of where each club has spent the vast majority of the season.
What I done next was use statistical analysis tests to investigate the accuracy and reliability of comparing the overall average league positions to where each club would finish in the table if you took the results of the reverse fixtures.
In the Premier League, the ‘theoretical table’ against their averaged average league position was 97.38% correlated and the same. In The Championship, it was even closer with 98.26% correlated and the same.
I have all the data if people are actually interested further in what I am trying to explain.
I’ve emailed this proposal over to The EFL and am actually awaiting their reply.
You can think I am mad, and that’s fine. But it’s an idea that I’ve developed and statistically shows that it works. For this idea, it doesn’t have to include relegation as it wouldn’t be entirely fair for a club to be relegated on a statistical solution, even if their league position and form through the season has shown that’s where they should be.
Incidentally, we would survive and finish in 18th. But that’s not why I’ve done this.
For anyone arguing the idea, that’s good, debate is good. But this idea takes into account different periods of form throughout the season and takes into account an overall average league position of each club.
I don't think it is a good idea to try to think of solutions. Most people can't get their heads around the concept of thinking of ways . Personally, I think voiding the season is better given the choice, but your idea has merit in terms of fairness. The problem is, it isn't totally fair. Mind you, what is?
No idea is going to be totally fair and unfortunately that’s always going to be the case. Just with this one, I’ve tried to make it as fair as possible, and statistically it shows it’s incredibly close to 100%.
In terms of the promotion places, in the Championship, nothing actually changes all the way down to 7th. The changes from there are small, up or down one or two places.
Relegation would be a problem, especially that last third from bottom place. But that’s also why this idea doesn’t have to include relegation but it can mean more spaces open up next season. It’s just a way of getting a final season table.
It’s looking more and more likely that the FA won’t have a choice. The decision was taken out of the hands of the football people in those other countries.
And the longer this rumbles on, the more likely the same will happen here too.
Lots of people have been discussing how exactly is best to finish the season, if at all possible. So it’s got me thinking, and I have came up with a way of finishing the season, without even having to play any of the games. People can shoot down this idea and that’s fine, but hear me out...
Take the results of the reverse fixtures that are remaining and add them to the current standings. For example, we would draw 2-2 with Hull, beat Reading 2-0 but lose 2-0 to Wigan etc.
I have worked this out for both the Premier League and for The Championship. The difference in current league positions are tiny. In fact, the current top 6 in The Championship remain exactly the same, just West Brom finish top whilst Leeds finish second.
To make this theory more reliable, I also took data of every single clubs league position in each game week of the season so far. I then performed a mean, median, and a mode of each club’s league position throughout the season. What I done next was to then take an overall average of the three averages. This was to get a true representation of where each club has spent the vast majority of the season.
What I done next was use statistical analysis tests to investigate the accuracy and reliability of comparing the overall average league positions to where each club would finish in the table if you took the results of the reverse fixtures.
In the Premier League, the ‘theoretical table’ against their averaged average league position was 97.38% correlated and the same. In The Championship, it was even closer with 98.26% correlated and the same.
I have all the data if people are actually interested further in what I am trying to explain.
I’ve emailed this proposal over to The EFL and am actually awaiting their reply.
You can think I am mad, and that’s fine. But it’s an idea that I’ve developed and statistically shows that it works. For this idea, it doesn’t have to include relegation as it wouldn’t be entirely fair for a club to be relegated on a statistical solution, even if their league position and form through the season has shown that’s where they should be.
Incidentally, we would survive and finish in 18th. But that’s not why I’ve done this.
For anyone arguing the idea, that’s good, debate is good. But this idea takes into account different periods of form throughout the season and takes into account an overall average league position of each club.
Absolute legal minefield implementing a never used/tested before system that has relegation & promotion consequences. Voiding the season will probably the only way the leagues avoid any legal action from clubs.
Well considering our coronavirus pandemic was at a similar level to that in the Netherlands and France, and miles worse than in Germany, it would be bizarre to follow the lead of Germany...
Some Premier league teams back in training but training individually. That should answer any questions as to whether the season should resume, if players can’t train together, have to drive to the training ground in training kit, how can they play together
Still, they are cracking on for an 8 June return.
They're not really. They're cracking on in case there can be a return to football on June 8th. I suspect expectations are low. Holland, now France. I'm pretty sure it won't happen until there's a cure or a vaccine.
@sage I love your idea, but it won't happen I'm afraid. There is an argument that you could add a system like this to the rule book in the event that something like this happened in the future, but you can't impose it in retrospect.
I'm firmly in the season is definitely over camp, and the only question is whether they'll award Liverpool the PL title.
I'm also fairly sure next season won't start without there being a widely available cure, or a vaccine.
No idea is going to be totally fair and unfortunately that’s always going to be the case. Just with this one, I’ve tried to make it as fair as possible, and statistically it shows it’s incredibly close to 100%.
In terms of the promotion places, in the Championship, nothing actually changes all the way down to 7th. The changes from there are small, up or down one or two places.
Relegation would be a problem, especially that last third from bottom place. But that’s also why this idea doesn’t have to include relegation but it can mean more spaces open up next season. It’s just a way of getting a final season table.
I admire your tenacity & brain power to think all that up......but if it doesn't include relegations then it's all a bit pointless. The whole point of a completed season is to see who wins the league and then who gets promoted & relegated. No point only doing part of the job.
I will also have to say, in the kindest possible way, that I expect your "proposal" will just go straight into the bin at EFL headquarters. Far too complicated for a really easy situation. You either wait until the season can re-start (be that June, July or August) or you null & void it. No other permutations are required.
Whether we continue the season or not will I think come down to the government. Germany are trying to finish theirs but the covid -19 virus there is far more under control than here.
Germany will be the test case of can sport be played before next year. Have being reading the new about the measure of infection in Germany has gone up from .7 to 1.0 a concern. As the easing of restrictions officially has only recently started, so if this increase is genuine it would make starting up football less likely, Now of course it might be a spike caused by the out break of public demonstrations in Germany in the last 2 weeks.
I suspect the PL will finish, the Championship might finish and the rest of the EFL will be abandoned.
Really not sure how they can resolve things for those leagues that are cut short. Teams will, inevitably, be unhappy and I suspect that the EFL will be embroiled in defending legal action in some shape or form. The only thing that is in the EFL favour is that most clubs outside the Championship don't have the money to fund such an action.
Null and void the season. If teams decide to go down the leagal route the government puts a statement out. At a time when the nation has lost over 25000 lives x team wants to go to court over a game of football.
Promotion with no relegation is the solution. Only the Premier League would complain. Therefore I think that now is the time to relegate both Arsenal and West Ham for cheating it in the past. This would allow a 20 team Premier League to continue. Everyone's happy and everything is fair, with past wrongs put to rights.
I think it’s worth noting that if the government give their blessing, which will be needed in order to get players playing again then it will be the very height of public embarrassment and condemnation if things go wrong and players get sick. It’s much easier for the government to just say no.
Thanks for the responses, majority of them positive. I received a long email back from The EFL this afternoon, essentially what they have said is they’ve received a lot of good ideas from supporters, but their view at the moment is to finish the season when it’s safe to do so.
I don’t think something like this could be implemented either, especially not now. But as @JamesSeed has said, maybe it could be introduced if we ever have to face a crisis like this again? I am sure there are ways of increasing that similarity even closer to 100%.
To be completely honest, after my hard work putting it all together, I was more pleased with the result and thought it was too good/accurate/interesting not to share.
Promotion with no relegation is the solution. Only the Premier League would complain. Therefore I think that now is the time to relegate both Arsenal and West Ham for cheating it in the past. This would allow a 20 team Premier League to continue. Everyone's happy and everything is fair, with past wrongs put to rights.
Definitely agree about Arsenal going down. That would make this situation have some form of silver lining.
Fifa doesn’t think we can start football until September. So I would say that’s it for this year then.
This came from FIFA's Medical Chair. Of course, the Premier League with their potential loss of revenue may still have other ideas. This would also goes against France's stance (no sporting events whatsoever, even behind closed doors 'til September) and it is difficult to argue that that isn't sensible given that we are on target to have more deaths than any other European nation as it is.
If things were totally cancelled I have seen suggestions it may restart with teams on their current points total. Giving an accumulation across more games.
Prevents the likes of Liverpool and teams in promotion positions losing everything they played for / imminent titles etc. And stops teams rooted to the bottom squirming their way out of relegation too easily.
Fifa's chief doctor has warned against restarting the interrupted 2019-20 campaign and suggested governing bodies prepare for action next season instead.
Michel d'Hooghe said "as a doctor" he would be "sceptical" about continuing leagues amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The chair of Fifa's medical committee told BBC Sport: "My proposal is if it is possible, avoid playing competitive football in the coming weeks.
"Try to be prepared for the start of good competition next season."
"There is a risk and it is not a risk that has small consequences," continued D'Hooghe.
"It can have consequences of life and death and that is why I am so careful and I ask everyone to be very careful before deciding to play again.
"I speak as a medical doctor, I don't have to speak as an organiser of matches, but for the moment from my medical standpoint I would be very sceptical."
Belgian D'Hooghe added it would be extremely difficult to continue social distancing if football matches were to resume and believes some "hygienic rules" would have to be put in place if seasons were to continue.
"How will you avoid direct contact?" he said. "That is my question.
"For the moment the criteria means it is absolutely difficult to say that we can play competitive football and believe me I regret it profoundly because I am a football man.
"I am a little bit afraid that to have a complete solution we will have to wait until we have a vaccination programme, but I think the time has come now to think of some hygienic rules.
"For instance to avoid spitting - why do we have to see that in football and not in other sports? This is one of the things we have to consider because this is a real danger in the future."
It is not yet known whether the Ligue de Football Professional (LFP) will choose to abandon the season with no promotion or relegation and no champions, or base the outcome of the campaign on current standings.
The Dutch top flight was abandoned on Friday with no promotion or relegation and no champions, while on Monday Belgian clubs postponed a vote on confirming the cancellation of their top flight until next week.
Plans to resume the Premier League season will step up this week in what has been labelled "Project Restart".
Arsenal, Brighton and West Ham opened their training grounds to players for individual work on Monday.
I suspect the PL will finish, the Championship might finish and the rest of the EFL will be abandoned.
Really not sure how they can resolve things for those leagues that are cut short. Teams will, inevitably, be unhappy and I suspect that the EFL will be embroiled in defending legal action in some shape or form. The only thing that is in the EFL favour is that most clubs outside the Championship don't have the money to fund such an action.
Surely all efl stops, or all restarts.. you can't mix and match.
Thanks for the responses, majority of them positive. I received a long email back from The EFL this afternoon, essentially what they have said is they’ve received a lot of good ideas from supporters, but their view at the moment is to finish the season when it’s safe to do so.
I don’t think something like this could be implemented either, especially not now. But as @JamesSeed has said, maybe it could be introduced if we ever have to face a crisis like this again? I am sure there are ways of increasing that similarity even closer to 100%.
To be completely honest, after my hard work putting it all together, I was more pleased with the result and thought it was too good/accurate/interesting not to share.
I'd like to know how they'll come to that decision.
Comments
France-Season Cancelled
Germany-Season trying to resume in a few weeks
Whose example do England follow
I think the main takeaway from all this should be , everyone should be in mindset of whatever they decide we simply have to embrace and look at the bigger picture.
In terms of the promotion places, in the Championship, nothing actually changes all the way down to 7th. The changes from there are small, up or down one or two places.
Relegation would be a problem, especially that last third from bottom place. But that’s also why this idea doesn’t have to include relegation but it can mean more spaces open up next season. It’s just a way of getting a final season table.
And the longer this rumbles on, the more likely the same will happen here too.
I'm firmly in the season is definitely over camp, and the only question is whether they'll award Liverpool the PL title.
I'm also fairly sure next season won't start without there being a widely available cure, or a vaccine.
I will also have to say, in the kindest possible way, that I expect your "proposal" will just go straight into the bin at EFL headquarters. Far too complicated for a really easy situation. You either wait until the season can re-start (be that June, July or August) or you null & void it. No other permutations are required.
Really not sure how they can resolve things for those leagues that are cut short. Teams will, inevitably, be unhappy and I suspect that the EFL will be embroiled in defending legal action in some shape or form. The only thing that is in the EFL favour is that most clubs outside the Championship don't have the money to fund such an action.
If teams decide to go down the leagal route the government puts a statement out.
At a time when the nation has lost over 25000 lives x team wants to go to court over a game of football.
I don’t think something like this could be implemented either, especially not now. But as @JamesSeed has said, maybe it could be introduced if we ever have to face a crisis like this again? I am sure there are ways of increasing that similarity even closer to 100%.
To be completely honest, after my hard work putting it all together, I was more pleased with the result and thought it was too good/accurate/interesting not to share.
Prevents the likes of Liverpool and teams in promotion positions losing everything they played for / imminent titles etc. And stops teams rooted to the bottom squirming their way out of relegation too easily.
Fifa's chief doctor has warned against restarting the interrupted 2019-20 campaign and suggested governing bodies prepare for action next season instead.
Michel d'Hooghe said "as a doctor" he would be "sceptical" about continuing leagues amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The chair of Fifa's medical committee told BBC Sport: "My proposal is if it is possible, avoid playing competitive football in the coming weeks.
"Try to be prepared for the start of good competition next season."
European leagues have until 25 May to tell European governing body Uefa whether they want to complete or cancel their seasons.
"There is a risk and it is not a risk that has small consequences," continued D'Hooghe.
"It can have consequences of life and death and that is why I am so careful and I ask everyone to be very careful before deciding to play again.
"I speak as a medical doctor, I don't have to speak as an organiser of matches, but for the moment from my medical standpoint I would be very sceptical."
Belgian D'Hooghe added it would be extremely difficult to continue social distancing if football matches were to resume and believes some "hygienic rules" would have to be put in place if seasons were to continue.
"How will you avoid direct contact?" he said. "That is my question.
"For the moment the criteria means it is absolutely difficult to say that we can play competitive football and believe me I regret it profoundly because I am a football man.
"I am a little bit afraid that to have a complete solution we will have to wait until we have a vaccination programme, but I think the time has come now to think of some hygienic rules.
"For instance to avoid spitting - why do we have to see that in football and not in other sports? This is one of the things we have to consider because this is a real danger in the future."
On Tuesday it was announced that the French Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 seasons will not resume.
It is not yet known whether the Ligue de Football Professional (LFP) will choose to abandon the season with no promotion or relegation and no champions, or base the outcome of the campaign on current standings.
The Dutch top flight was abandoned on Friday with no promotion or relegation and no champions, while on Monday Belgian clubs postponed a vote on confirming the cancellation of their top flight until next week.
Plans to resume the Premier League season will step up this week in what has been labelled "Project Restart".
Arsenal, Brighton and West Ham opened their training grounds to players for individual work on Monday.
I'd like to know how they'll come to that decision.