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Is the season going to finish? (ed. Pg.53 - 3 players not returned to training)
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1) previous results are highly indicative of future results, yes you lose the home advantage part but that’s obvious. As @Leeds_Addick said, you don’t find results being drastically different. You’re also taking multiple sections of league form from earlier in the season. Furthermore, if you also look at league tables at this stage of the season, from previous seasons, and then look at how they ended, and then compare them to how my proposal has turned out for this season, the variation in positions are 3 for last season in The Championship, and 2 for the season before. This gives further accuracy in the prediction of how the season is likely to finish.Dave Rudd said:
Two things:Sage said:Lots of people have been discussing how exactly is best to finish the season, if at all possible. So it’s got me thinking, and I have came up with a way of finishing the season, without even having to play any of the games. People can shoot down this idea and that’s fine, but hear me out...
Take the results of the reverse fixtures that are remaining and add them to the current standings. For example, we would draw 2-2 with Hull, beat Reading 2-0 but lose 2-0 to Wigan etc.
I have worked this out for both the Premier League and for The Championship. The difference in current league positions are tiny. In fact, the current top 6 in The Championship remain exactly the same, just West Brom finish top whilst Leeds finish second.
To make this theory more reliable, I also took data of every single clubs league position in each game week of the season so far. I then performed a mean, median, and a mode of each club’s league position throughout the season. What I done next was to then take an overall average of the three averages. This was to get a true representation of where each club has spent the vast majority of the season.
What I done next was use statistical analysis tests to investigate the accuracy and reliability of comparing the overall average league positions to where each club would finish in the table if you took the results of the reverse fixtures.
In the Premier League, the ‘theoretical table’ against their averaged average league position was 97.38% correlated and the same. In The Championship, it was even closer with 98.26% correlated and the same.
I have all the data if people are actually interested further in what I am trying to explain.
I’ve emailed this proposal over to The EFL and am actually awaiting their reply.
You can think I am mad, and that’s fine. But it’s an idea that I’ve developed and statistically shows that it works. For this idea, it doesn’t have to include relegation as it wouldn’t be entirely fair for a club to be relegated on a statistical solution, even if their league position and form through the season has shown that’s where they should be.
Incidentally, we would survive and finish in 18th. But that’s not why I’ve done this.
For anyone arguing the idea, that’s good, debate is good. But this idea takes into account different periods of form throughout the season and takes into account an overall average league position of each club.
1) How is the previous (reverse) result against any team predictive of the next game against that team … especially at the alternative venue? You ignore home/away advantage at a stroke.
2) Why on earth would you average mean, median and mode? It's like trying to find the average of 9 bananas, 7 apples and a melon (and that isn't 3 bananas, 2.33 apples and 0.33 melons or even 0.529 bananas, 0.412 apples and 0.059 melons).
Also, beware trusting correlations too much. Most people die in bed (highly correlated). So, stay out of bed and live longer.
Also … without wishing to sound unkind (ahem) … your erudite statistical analysis is not well-served by phrases such as 'What I done next ...".
Nice try, but don't expect the EFL to go for it.2) because the mean, median, and mode scores were incredibly similar throughout all 44 teams I done it for. That means if I was to do the statistical test on each individual average score, it would still be well into the 90+%. It was just a decision I made to use just one overall average.
I am also aware that correlations can be misleading. With all respect, I have done two extensive dissertations at university using multiple tests, specifically using correlations. So I’m not just a random person picking a random test from random pieces of data.
Finally, I wanted a debate for the idea, and that’s all it is. I was never aiming or expecting anyone to use it or for it to be groundbreaking. The post though has got people discussing it and thinking differently. That’s exactly what it’s for. I appreciate your feedback and points against the idea. I just don’t appreciate your condescending tone and approach. I used laymen’s terms to explain how and what I did. I’m not writing an essay where I need to use scientific terminology.5 -
so I wonder where we, the fans, stand regarding season ticket refunds or in fact refunds for any tickets purchased? And do players have to hand back bonuses received for goals scored, league positions etc?Dave Rudd said:
1) I think that you'll also struggle to find ANY examples where the pair of home and away results between two teams are consistently identical. It's a flawed starting point.Leeds_Addick said:
1) I imagine previous results against a team are actually quite predictive of the next. You aren't going to find many cases where you lose 5-0 to someone away but then beat them 5-0 at home.
2) I probably agree with this.
You're right correlation doesn't imply causation but in this case Sage was just trying to show that if you use this method then the league positions don't actually change that much.
No need to have a dig at him either
2) Yaay! (Probably)
3) Not sure what the correlation implies then. That two flawed approaches give a similar outcome?
Not a dig … although you are welcome to view it as such. Sage has sent this to the EFL with obvious expectations. He will be disappointed.
@MuttleyCAFC - Thanks for the dig. My solution? No way can you complete this season in any meaningful way. The period of suspension now means that any continuation of the current season will bear little resemblance to what has already gone on. They will be two separate parts, hence meaningless to view them together as a single season.
You certainly can't speculate on what 'would have happened' as anyone who has ever tried to predict the outcome of football matches on a regular basis will know.
So, this season has to be abandoned. It didn't happen. And next season may also suffer a similar fate. OK with that?
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I also sent it to The EFL to get them to have a look at the data. Not once have I ever expected it to be used or someone think, “you know what, this is good, let’s use this or talk about ways of doing this”. They said they’ve received loads and loads of emails about different ways, including good ideas, to finish the season. I am just one of many. Am I disappointed? Not one little bit. I am more intrigued to find the similarity between current standings and previous final standings to how the idea turns out.
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Also, there are a lot of people who regularly predict the outcomes of football matches extremely successfully, and they do that from using previous data and what are the likely outcomes when inputted into statistical tests.
I have an example where a former student at my old university has made thousands and thousands of pounds from predicting outcomes by using Chi Square and Pearson Correlations. It is possible.0 -
To me current form is a much better way of predicting future results than the reverse fixtures 6 months ago.
For example in the autumn we drew against Hull and beat Leeds, whereas in the reverse fixture we are FAR more likely to get a win from the Hull away fixture than the Leeds one, as Hull are playing terribly and plummeting down the table whereas Leeds are playing well and heading for promotion!
Though of course, by the time we were due to play Leeds, they could have been Champions already and mentally on the beach, allowing us to sneak the 3 points that keep us up...
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Just one more thing to add into the context of this to try and how a little bit of accuracy...
If you look solely at The Premier League, the mean of places 1-20 is 10.5. The mean for my average of three averages is 10.4971264. That’s how close the theoretical final standings in this idea are to their overall average league position so far for this season.0 -
@Sage … at the risk of sounding condescending again, I think you'll find that there are many (many) more examples of people who fail to predict the outcomes of football matches successfully (as our bookmaker friends will testify). Just because something is possible, or that it happened once before, doesn't mean that it will happen again.Sage said:Also, there are a lot of people who regularly predict the outcomes of football matches extremely successfully, and they do that from using previous data and what are the likely outcomes when inputted into statistical tests.
I have an example where a former student at my old university has made thousands and thousands of pounds from predicting outcomes by using Chi Square and Pearson Correlations. It is possible.
I admire what you are attempting to do, but I'm trying to point out what you have done wrong. Your initial assumption (that home and away results between two teams are identical) is wrong as a quick review of all results from all previous seasons will confirm. I assume you haven't done that. That might be the place to start, although I don't think you'll establish a useful predictive model for the reasons that I've already given.
Finally ... don't be shy. You sent this to the EFL ("I’ve emailed this proposal over to The EFL and am actually awaiting their reply"). If it was simply for their entertainment, the reply would be 'thanks' ... but I sense that you were hoping for more than that.
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It will be abandoned, but not for that reason. Unfortunately it doesn’t matter if it’s a different set of players, or if it’s fair.Dave Rudd said:
1) I think that you'll also struggle to find ANY examples where the pair of home and away results between two teams are consistently identical. It's a flawed starting point.Leeds_Addick said:
1) I imagine previous results against a team are actually quite predictive of the next. You aren't going to find many cases where you lose 5-0 to someone away but then beat them 5-0 at home.
2) I probably agree with this.
You're right correlation doesn't imply causation but in this case Sage was just trying to show that if you use this method then the league positions don't actually change that much.
No need to have a dig at him either
2) Yaay! (Probably)
3) Not sure what the correlation implies then. That two flawed approaches give a similar outcome?
Not a dig … although you are welcome to view it as such. Sage has sent this to the EFL with obvious expectations. He will be disappointed.
@MuttleyCAFC - Thanks for the dig. My solution? No way can you complete this season in any meaningful way. The period of suspension now means that any continuation of the current season will bear little resemblance to what has already gone on. They will be two separate parts, hence meaningless to view them together as a single season.
You certainly can't speculate on what 'would have happened' as anyone who has ever tried to predict the outcome of football matches on a regular basis will know.
So, this season has to be abandoned. It didn't happen. And next season may also suffer a similar fate. OK with that?
It'll be the public health Issue that does for this season, and possibly next season, I believe.2 -
Of course many get things wrong when predicting outcomes. But the bookmakers also use their own stats in order to work out what odds they’re going to give. If you have a formula that works, like the former student I mentioned, you will get it right far more than you get it wrong.Dave Rudd said:
@Sage … at the risk of sounding condescending again, I think you'll find that there are many (many) more examples of people who fail to predict the outcomes of football matches successfully (as our bookmaker friends will testify). Just because something is possible, or that it happened once before, doesn't mean that it will happen again.Sage said:Also, there are a lot of people who regularly predict the outcomes of football matches extremely successfully, and they do that from using previous data and what are the likely outcomes when inputted into statistical tests.
I have an example where a former student at my old university has made thousands and thousands of pounds from predicting outcomes by using Chi Square and Pearson Correlations. It is possible.
I admire what you are attempting to do, but I'm trying to point out what you have done wrong. Your initial assumption (that home and away results between two teams are identical) is wrong as a quick review of all results from all previous seasons will confirm. I assume you haven't done that. That might be the place to start, although I don't think you'll establish a useful predictive model for the reasons that I've already given.
Finally ... don't be shy. You sent this to the EFL ("I’ve emailed this proposal over to The EFL and am actually awaiting their reply"). If it was simply for their entertainment, the reply would be 'thanks' ... but I sense that you were hoping for more than that.
I also haven’t ever said the results of previous fixtures are identical. That’s your interpretation. I’ve said they’re highly indicative of future results, which they are. You’re also looking at each result as it’s own being, but what this has done is look at the bulk of fixtures left and found that the total points they’ll potentially pick up are those of very much the same of clubs in that league position from both earlier on the season and in previous seasons. There is a trend. You can assume, but I have also said in comparison to the two previous seasons, the variation is extremely small. That is enough for me right now to see how indicative previous results are.
Finally... I’m not being shy, I’m being honest. All that section you’ve mentioned is that I’ve sent them an email and was at that time, awaiting their reply. Again, it’s you interpreting that I wanted this to be seriously considered by The EFL. If you like, I can attach the email response I got from them to show how they don’t just reply, “thanks”. They outline their position and appreciate the level of correspondence they’ve received. It was merely to show the work, never a solution to the problem we are facing.
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See, it was to share what I found, never to be implemented.Sage said:Thanks for the responses, majority of them positive. I received a long email back from The EFL this afternoon, essentially what they have said is they’ve received a lot of good ideas from supporters, but their view at the moment is to finish the season when it’s safe to do so.
I don’t think something like this could be implemented either, especially not now. But as @JamesSeed has said, maybe it could be introduced if we ever have to face a crisis like this again? I am sure there are ways of increasing that similarity even closer to 100%.
To be completely honest, after my hard work putting it all together, I was more pleased with the result and thought it was too good/accurate/interesting not to share.0 -
Somebody could come up with an idea and somebody else could improve it. Ideas are great whether they are implemented or not.1
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It's good that Ligue 1 is abandoned. It's puts everyone out of their misery.0
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On a serious note, the government will allow football, and other businesses to continue, once the debt, and financial damage caused by bankrupcies is greater than the cost of deaths. Each country has a value placed on one Human life. In France it is 2 million euros. You can bet that Macron has already been calculating this. Boris will have someone with a brain doing the same for him.0
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Now you confuse me @Sage. I thought that was exactly your premise based on the following from your original post:Sage said:
I also haven’t ever said the results of previous fixtures are identical. That’s your interpretation.
"Take the results of the reverse fixtures that are remaining and add them to the current standings. For example, we would draw 2-2 with Hull, beat Reading 2-0 but lose 2-0 to Wigan etc."
So what results did you use?
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From Twitter:jimmymelrose said:It's good that Ligue 1 is abandoned. It's puts everyone out of their misery.
’‘France are talking about determining Ligue 1 by how the table looked at the season mid-point, when everyone had played each other once.’
That would see us finishing in 18th place, six points clear of relegation.
Seems like a fair system. There is at least a logic to it.16 -
Or use the table from the very start of the season when no games had been played. WBA would be relegated.....😀JamesSeed said:
From Twitter:jimmymelrose said:It's good that Ligue 1 is abandoned. It's puts everyone out of their misery.
’‘France are talking about determining Ligue 1 by how the table looked at the season mid-point, when everyone had played each other once.’
That would see us finishing in 18th place, six points clear of relegation.
Seems like a fair system. There is at least a logic to it.10 -
No, you said that my initial assumption was that results of both home and away are identical and is wrong. But I didn’t ever say that, I said that the previous results are highly indicative of future results.Dave Rudd said:
Now you confuse me @Sage. I thought that was exactly your premise based on the following from your original post:Sage said:
I also haven’t ever said the results of previous fixtures are identical. That’s your interpretation.
"Take the results of the reverse fixtures that are remaining and add them to the current standings. For example, we would draw 2-2 with Hull, beat Reading 2-0 but lose 2-0 to Wigan etc."
So what results did you use?
Yes, in this system I used the previous reverse results for the remainder of the fixtures left. But that doesn’t mean I believe they’re identical. I used this as a matter of indicating what is a probable scenario as you’re taking multiple sections of form from the season. I have explained this. I do believe you have over interrupted what I’ve actually said.
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Pretty much the exact same as my theoretical table and in line with what our average league position has been this season...JamesSeed said:
From Twitter:jimmymelrose said:It's good that Ligue 1 is abandoned. It's puts everyone out of their misery.
’‘France are talking about determining Ligue 1 by how the table looked at the season mid-point, when everyone had played each other once.’
That would see us finishing in 18th place, six points clear of relegation.
Seems like a fair system. There is at least a logic to it.0 -
Much simpler version ;-)Sage said:
Pretty much the exact same as my theoretical table and in line with what our average league position has been this season...JamesSeed said:
From Twitter:jimmymelrose said:It's good that Ligue 1 is abandoned. It's puts everyone out of their misery.
’‘France are talking about determining Ligue 1 by how the table looked at the season mid-point, when everyone had played each other once.’
That would see us finishing in 18th place, six points clear of relegation.
Seems like a fair system. There is at least a logic to it.0 - Sponsored links:
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A club like Bromley would be happy with that I'm sure - I believe they were top of the National League at the half way stage and are 13th now!!!JamesSeed said:
From Twitter:jimmymelrose said:It's good that Ligue 1 is abandoned. It's puts everyone out of their misery.
’‘France are talking about determining Ligue 1 by how the table looked at the season mid-point, when everyone had played each other once.’
That would see us finishing in 18th place, six points clear of relegation.
Seems like a fair system. There is at least a logic to it.
Equally, what constitutes the half way point? Presumably when you've played every team once and not when you've played 23 games because some games are postponed and played in the second half of the season.0 -
Without the hassle! But it does show what I have worked on and again, how previous results are indicative of future ones. Not every single one is to be identical, but in a system you have to use the original results as it’s a strong indication of the points they’re going to pick up in the period of games you’re specifically looking at.JamesSeed said:
Much simpler version ;-)Sage said:
Pretty much the exact same as my theoretical table and in line with what our average league position has been this season...JamesSeed said:
From Twitter:jimmymelrose said:It's good that Ligue 1 is abandoned. It's puts everyone out of their misery.
’‘France are talking about determining Ligue 1 by how the table looked at the season mid-point, when everyone had played each other once.’
That would see us finishing in 18th place, six points clear of relegation.
Seems like a fair system. There is at least a logic to it.
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Why not use the actual results when everyone had played each other once?Sage said:
Without the hassle! But it does show what I have worked on and again, how previous results are indicative of future ones. Not every single one is to be identical, but in a system you have to use the original results as it’s a strong indication of the points they’re going to pick up in the period of games you’re specifically looking at.JamesSeed said:
Much simpler version ;-)Sage said:
Pretty much the exact same as my theoretical table and in line with what our average league position has been this season...JamesSeed said:
From Twitter:jimmymelrose said:It's good that Ligue 1 is abandoned. It's puts everyone out of their misery.
’‘France are talking about determining Ligue 1 by how the table looked at the season mid-point, when everyone had played each other once.’
That would see us finishing in 18th place, six points clear of relegation.
Seems like a fair system. There is at least a logic to it.
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As I indicated above, using a half way table (and even one when a Club has played each other once) doesn't sound fair either - Bromley would come out top in the National League but are 13th now and 18 points behind the current top side Barrow.Redrobo said:
Why not use the actual results when everyone had played each other once?Sage said:
Without the hassle! But it does show what I have worked on and again, how previous results are indicative of future ones. Not every single one is to be identical, but in a system you have to use the original results as it’s a strong indication of the points they’re going to pick up in the period of games you’re specifically looking at.JamesSeed said:
Much simpler version ;-)Sage said:
Pretty much the exact same as my theoretical table and in line with what our average league position has been this season...JamesSeed said:
From Twitter:jimmymelrose said:It's good that Ligue 1 is abandoned. It's puts everyone out of their misery.
’‘France are talking about determining Ligue 1 by how the table looked at the season mid-point, when everyone had played each other once.’
That would see us finishing in 18th place, six points clear of relegation.
Seems like a fair system. There is at least a logic to it.
It is virtually mathematically impossible for Bromley to be Champions now and yet they would be awarded the League!
Of less importance but a consideration, you will have half the teams having played one more away than at home.0 -
As the sex God that is @golfaddick says repeatedly, null and void or play to a finish.No other options can work.6
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For my theory, I did use the actual results from the fixtures which had previously been played this season.Redrobo said:
Why not use the actual results when everyone had played each other once?Sage said:
Without the hassle! But it does show what I have worked on and again, how previous results are indicative of future ones. Not every single one is to be identical, but in a system you have to use the original results as it’s a strong indication of the points they’re going to pick up in the period of games you’re specifically looking at.JamesSeed said:
Much simpler version ;-)Sage said:
Pretty much the exact same as my theoretical table and in line with what our average league position has been this season...JamesSeed said:
From Twitter:jimmymelrose said:It's good that Ligue 1 is abandoned. It's puts everyone out of their misery.
’‘France are talking about determining Ligue 1 by how the table looked at the season mid-point, when everyone had played each other once.’
That would see us finishing in 18th place, six points clear of relegation.
Seems like a fair system. There is at least a logic to it.
In this instance specifically though, I guess the problem of putting the season back to the half way point is you’re taking out a whole load of results since Christmas.0 -
Bewildering!Sage said:
For my theory, I did use the actual results from the fixtures which had previously been played this season.
In this instance specifically though, I guess the problem of putting the season back to the half way point is you’re taking out a whole load of results since Christmas.
So, just to be clear … for your predictions, you have assumed that we draw 2-2 at Hull City, that we draw 2-2 with QPR, 2-2 at Cardiff, we lose 1-2 at home to Millwall, we win 1-0 at Brentford, 2-0 at home to Reading, we lose 0-1 at Birmingham, we lose 0-2 to Wigan and we win 1-0 at Leeds? No wonder we stay up.
With all due respect, total nonsense .. as demonstrated by the fact that, if you take this approach with all other 28 paired fixtures, your mirror image occurs only twice (2-2 with West Brom and 0-1 with Middlesbrough).
Apologies if I have over-interpreted but, if you haven't done the above, what have you actually done?
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£1k?MuttleyCAFC said:EricBanterna said:
Seems unfair, but predictable. The club I managed paid nearly £1k in fines last season (I know it was a bit on the high side). It is a nice little earner for the league though.My Sunday league has been declared void now. However no reimbursement of season fees nor any incentive to reapply for next year.
Also the suggestion of the league returning monies collected from fines shot down even though all records are removed for this season.
How did you manage that?!0 -
You’re just being extremely pedantic and going well over the top with this without actually taking in anything of note that I have said. If you’re also going to say something rude, don’t start it with, ‘with all due respect’ or along those lines. It’s not respectful.Dave Rudd said:
Bewildering!Sage said:
For my theory, I did use the actual results from the fixtures which had previously been played this season.
In this instance specifically though, I guess the problem of putting the season back to the half way point is you’re taking out a whole load of results since Christmas.
So, just to be clear … for your predictions, you have assumed that we draw 2-2 at Hull City, that we draw 2-2 with QPR, 2-2 at Cardiff, we lose 1-2 at home to Millwall, we win 1-0 at Brentford, 2-0 at home to Reading, we lose 0-1 at Birmingham, we lose 0-2 to Wigan and we win 1-0 at Leeds? No wonder we stay up.
With all due respect, total nonsense .. as demonstrated by the fact that, if you take this approach with all other 28 paired fixtures, your mirror image occurs only twice (2-2 with West Brom and 0-1 with Middlesbrough).
Apologies if I have over-interpreted but, if you haven't done the above, what have you actually done?
Yes, those exact results are what have been added to the current standings. Just as the other 9 results for each and every other 23 clubs in the league. The interesting part of it was that the amount of difference in the current table and what it would be is extremely small. It’s not that hard to understand.
Quite frankly, I am tired of repeating myself and trying to explain the idea when the vast majority of people on here who have responded have done so positively, respectfully, and in a way of being open minded. It was there for discussion and to throw something new into the mix. The fact we stay up in this theory has no meaning or bearing whatsoever. If you think it does, well it would mean we incidentally stay up by 3 points. Not a lot at all, and extremely feasible, so it’s not a ,’no wonder we stay up’, because again it shows the possibility of it actually occurring. It’s not total nonsense, you just don’t understand what exactly I have done.
I’m not going to explain any further because I know what I have said has been clear enough. If you can’t fathom that, well that’s your problem, not mine.
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The fairest cutoff point would be the end of AugustJamesSeed said:
From Twitter:jimmymelrose said:It's good that Ligue 1 is abandoned. It's puts everyone out of their misery.
’‘France are talking about determining Ligue 1 by how the table looked at the season mid-point, when everyone had played each other once.’
That would see us finishing in 18th place, six points clear of relegation.
Seems like a fair system. There is at least a logic to it.
And not just because we were 2nd then
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