You can think I am mad, and that’s fine. But it’s an idea that I’ve developed and statistically shows that it works. For this idea, it doesn’t have to include relegation as it wouldn’t be entirely fair for a club to be relegated on a statistical solution, even if their league position and form through the season has shown that’s where they should be.
...
You could've saved yourself a lot of time and effort and just put this line at the beginning. Would've got the same, if not more of a positive response
Maybe the mega rich clubs like Man City and Chelsea should donate money to help get a vaccine
Why? Will the FTSE 250 companies all be making donations for a vaccine? I’m sure they are all eager to get back to business.
If FTSE 250 companies want premier league action to return safely then yes, why not.
if the premier league are pushing for a return to action then why shouldn’t they speed up the process and contribute. If large corporate companies want to open sooner, then yes, they can contribute as well
If things were totally cancelled I have seen suggestions it may restart with teams on their current points total. Giving an accumulation across more games.
Prevents the likes of Liverpool and teams in promotion positions losing everything they played for / imminent titles etc. And stops teams rooted to the bottom squirming their way out of relegation too easily.
That sounds fair. Liverpool would go into the season with a massive lead which should guarantee them the title and will stop their supporters from moaning.
If things were totally cancelled I have seen suggestions it may restart with teams on their current points total. Giving an accumulation across more games.
Prevents the likes of Liverpool and teams in promotion positions losing everything they played for / imminent titles etc. And stops teams rooted to the bottom squirming their way out of relegation too easily.
That sounds fair. Liverpool would go into the season with a massive lead which should guarantee them the title and will stop their supporters from moaning.
If things were totally cancelled I have seen suggestions it may restart with teams on their current points total. Giving an accumulation across more games.
Prevents the likes of Liverpool and teams in promotion positions losing everything they played for / imminent titles etc. And stops teams rooted to the bottom squirming their way out of relegation too easily.
That sounds fair. Liverpool would go into the season with a massive lead which should guarantee them the title and will stop their supporters from moaning.
Would make the season potentially less interesting though.
If things were totally cancelled I have seen suggestions it may restart with teams on their current points total. Giving an accumulation across more games.
Prevents the likes of Liverpool and teams in promotion positions losing everything they played for / imminent titles etc. And stops teams rooted to the bottom squirming their way out of relegation too easily.
That sounds fair. Liverpool would go into the season with a massive lead which should guarantee them the title and will stop their supporters from moaning.
Would make the season potentially less interesting though.
Fifa doesn’t think we can start football until September. So I would say that’s it for this year then.
This came from FIFA's Medical Chair. Of course, the Premier League with their potential loss of revenue may still have other ideas. This would also goes against France's stance (no sporting events whatsoever, even behind closed doors 'til September) and it is difficult to argue that that isn't sensible given that we are on target to have more deaths than any other European nation as it is.
Fifa doesn’t think we can start football until September. So I would say that’s it for this year then.”
Why September? Are FIFA saying there’ll be a vaccine available by September? Do they think there’ll be effective treatment or even a cure by then? Do you think that they’ll be able to guarantee that no player will develop a severe cough, or other symptoms of covid, requiring the rest of his team, and any team he’s played against to self isolate?
Nothing wrong with planning for a restart in September, or even before, but there are no guarantees at all.
I’m hoping next season might happen, but I doubt very much it will. Not a full season anyway.
Maybe the mega rich clubs like Man City and Chelsea should donate money to help get a vaccine
Why? Will the FTSE 250 companies all be making donations for a vaccine? I’m sure they are all eager to get back to business.
If FTSE 250 companies want premier league action to return safely then yes, why not.
if the premier league are pushing for a return to action then why shouldn’t they speed up the process and contribute. If large corporate companies want to open sooner, then yes, they can contribute as well
I don’t think there’s a money problem with discovering a vaccine, it’s a science problem.
If things were totally cancelled I have seen suggestions it may restart with teams on their current points total. Giving an accumulation across more games.
Prevents the likes of Liverpool and teams in promotion positions losing everything they played for / imminent titles etc. And stops teams rooted to the bottom squirming their way out of relegation too easily.
That sounds fair. Liverpool would go into the season with a massive lead which should guarantee them the title and will stop their supporters from moaning.
Would make the season potentially less interesting though.
The other 3 divisions and the PL relegation scrap would be fine though, Leeds and West Brom for example could be easily caught.
Fifa doesn’t think we can start football until September. So I would say that’s it for this year then.
This came from FIFA's Medical Chair. Of course, the Premier League with their potential loss of revenue may still have other ideas. This would also goes against France's stance (no sporting events whatsoever, even behind closed doors 'til September) and it is difficult to argue that that isn't sensible given that we are on target to have more deaths than any other European nation as it is.
Fifa doesn’t think we can start football until September. So I would say that’s it for this year then.”
Why September? Are FIFA saying there’ll be a vaccine available by September? Do they think there’ll be effective treatment or even a cure by then? Do you think that they’ll be able to guarantee that no player will develop a severe cough, or other symptoms of covid, requiring the rest of his team, and any team he’s played against to self isolate?
Nothing wrong with planning for a restart in September, or even before, but there are no guarantees at all.
I’m hoping next season might happen, but I doubt very much it will. Not a full season anyway.
That’s par for the course from FIFA but probably just a case of kicking the can down road for another few months.
I can’t understand the rush to get back other than the money draining away. But football created their own monster of a financial mess they are in , maybe the reset button needs to be pressed.
Maybe the mega rich clubs like Man City and Chelsea should donate money to help get a vaccine
Why? Will the FTSE 250 companies all be making donations for a vaccine? I’m sure they are all eager to get back to business.
If FTSE 250 companies want premier league action to return safely then yes, why not.
if the premier league are pushing for a return to action then why shouldn’t they speed up the process and contribute. If large corporate companies want to open sooner, then yes, they can contribute as well
I don’t think there’s a money problem with discovering a vaccine, it’s a science problem.
Money will be needed to mass produce and distribute a vaccine.
Maybe the mega rich clubs like Man City and Chelsea should donate money to help get a vaccine
Why? Will the FTSE 250 companies all be making donations for a vaccine? I’m sure they are all eager to get back to business.
If FTSE 250 companies want premier league action to return safely then yes, why not.
if the premier league are pushing for a return to action then why shouldn’t they speed up the process and contribute. If large corporate companies want to open sooner, then yes, they can contribute as well
I don’t think there’s a money problem with discovering a vaccine, it’s a science problem.
Money will be needed to mass produce and distribute a vaccine.
Money won't be an issue because Mr Bill Gates is going to save the world to make up for nicking all the software.
If things were totally cancelled I have seen suggestions it may restart with teams on their current points total. Giving an accumulation across more games.
Prevents the likes of Liverpool and teams in promotion positions losing everything they played for / imminent titles etc. And stops teams rooted to the bottom squirming their way out of relegation too easily.
That sounds fair. Liverpool would go into the season with a massive lead which should guarantee them the title and will stop their supporters from moaning.
So someone stays up next year as they played Norwich 4 times and got 12 points and someone lost four times to Liverpool.
Carrying points over makes absolutely no sense at all
Maybe the mega rich clubs like Man City and Chelsea should donate money to help get a vaccine
Why? Will the FTSE 250 companies all be making donations for a vaccine? I’m sure they are all eager to get back to business.
If FTSE 250 companies want premier league action to return safely then yes, why not.
if the premier league are pushing for a return to action then why shouldn’t they speed up the process and contribute. If large corporate companies want to open sooner, then yes, they can contribute as well
I don’t think there’s a money problem with discovering a vaccine, it’s a science problem.
Money will be needed to mass produce and distribute a vaccine.
If things were totally cancelled I have seen suggestions it may restart with teams on their current points total. Giving an accumulation across more games.
Prevents the likes of Liverpool and teams in promotion positions losing everything they played for / imminent titles etc. And stops teams rooted to the bottom squirming their way out of relegation too easily.
That sounds fair. Liverpool would go into the season with a massive lead which should guarantee them the title and will stop their supporters from moaning.
So someone stays up next year as they played Norwich 4 times and got 12 points and someone lost four times to Liverpool.
Carrying points over makes absolutely no sense at all
Not a lot does make sense at the moment though. This is season has been heavily disrupted and next season will too. It’s not going to be a normal season
Lots of people have been discussing how exactly is best to finish the season, if at all possible. So it’s got me thinking, and I have came up with a way of finishing the season, without even having to play any of the games. People can shoot down this idea and that’s fine, but hear me out...
Take the results of the reverse fixtures that are remaining and add them to the current standings. For example, we would draw 2-2 with Hull, beat Reading 2-0 but lose 2-0 to Wigan etc.
I have worked this out for both the Premier League and for The Championship. The difference in current league positions are tiny. In fact, the current top 6 in The Championship remain exactly the same, just West Brom finish top whilst Leeds finish second.
To make this theory more reliable, I also took data of every single clubs league position in each game week of the season so far. I then performed a mean, median, and a mode of each club’s league position throughout the season. What I done next was to then take an overall average of the three averages. This was to get a true representation of where each club has spent the vast majority of the season.
What I done next was use statistical analysis tests to investigate the accuracy and reliability of comparing the overall average league positions to where each club would finish in the table if you took the results of the reverse fixtures.
In the Premier League, the ‘theoretical table’ against their averaged average league position was 97.38% correlated and the same. In The Championship, it was even closer with 98.26% correlated and the same.
I have all the data if people are actually interested further in what I am trying to explain.
I’ve emailed this proposal over to The EFL and am actually awaiting their reply.
You can think I am mad, and that’s fine. But it’s an idea that I’ve developed and statistically shows that it works. For this idea, it doesn’t have to include relegation as it wouldn’t be entirely fair for a club to be relegated on a statistical solution, even if their league position and form through the season has shown that’s where they should be.
Incidentally, we would survive and finish in 18th. But that’s not why I’ve done this.
For anyone arguing the idea, that’s good, debate is good. But this idea takes into account different periods of form throughout the season and takes into account an overall average league position of each club.
Two things:
1) How is the previous (reverse) result against any team predictive of the next game against that team … especially at the alternative venue? You ignore home/away advantage at a stroke.
2) Why on earth would you average mean, median and mode? It's like trying to find the average of 9 bananas, 7 apples and a melon (and that isn't 3 bananas, 2.33 apples and 0.33 melons or even 0.529 bananas, 0.412 apples and 0.059 melons).
Also, beware trusting correlations too much. Most people die in bed (highly correlated). So, stay out of bed and live longer.
Also … without wishing to sound unkind (ahem) … your erudite statistical analysis is not well-served by phrases such as 'What I done next ...".
How about they finish this season when it’s considered safe and then work it out from there going forwards.
So this season could re start January 21 finish March 21 and we miss a season or if it finishes December 20 we restart the next season as just a shorter season playing teams just once . Does the above help Liverpool win the League , yes , a fairer solution is cancel this season right here right now.
Personally i feel that once something goes wrong with the resumption of the Bundesliga and they cancel their season (which is almost inevitable when you look at the ridiculously long list of conditions they've drafted up), then the rest of the big leagues will follow.
Don’t expect the government to announce the ending of the season - it wasn’t the government that suspended football in the first place but the leagues themselves.
How about they finish this season when it’s considered safe and then work it out from there going forwards.
So this season could re start January 21 finish March 21 and we miss a season or if it finishes December 20 we restart the next season as just a shorter season playing teams just once . Does the above help Liverpool win the League , yes , a fairer solution is cancel this season right here right now.
How does that work with out of contract players? If players leave then they have to be replaced which means a transfer window. Leeds could then gamble, spend £20m on a keeper to cover suspension. as the promised land is in touching distance
How about they finish this season when it’s considered safe and then work it out from there going forwards.
So this season could re start January 21 finish March 21 and we miss a season or if it finishes December 20 we restart the next season as just a shorter season playing teams just once . Does the above help Liverpool win the League , yes , a fairer solution is cancel this season right here right now.
How does that work with out of contract players? If players leave then they have to be replaced which means a transfer window. Leeds could then gamble, spend £20m on a keeper to cover suspension. as the promised land is in touching distance
We already have a transfer window during the season, so this sort of thing could happen anyway. Re-starting the season from where we left off whenever it’s safe to do so, even if that’s post June 30th, would get my vote but I’m probably in the minority.
How about they finish this season when it’s considered safe and then work it out from there going forwards.
So this season could re start January 21 finish March 21 and we miss a season or if it finishes December 20 we restart the next season as just a shorter season playing teams just once . Does the above help Liverpool win the League , yes , a fairer solution is cancel this season right here right now.
How does that work with out of contract players? If players leave then they have to be replaced which means a transfer window. Leeds could then gamble, spend £20m on a keeper to cover suspension. as the promised land is in touching distance
We already have a transfer window during the season, so this sort of thing could happen anyway. Re-starting the season from where we left off whenever it’s safe to do so, even if that’s post June 30th, would get my vote but I’m probably in the minority.
Yep, declare it null and void so that we retain our Championship status mind you circumstances could well over take events on that front with the club possibly facing further EFL sanctions.
Lots of people have been discussing how exactly is best to finish the season, if at all possible. So it’s got me thinking, and I have came up with a way of finishing the season, without even having to play any of the games. People can shoot down this idea and that’s fine, but hear me out...
Take the results of the reverse fixtures that are remaining and add them to the current standings. For example, we would draw 2-2 with Hull, beat Reading 2-0 but lose 2-0 to Wigan etc.
I have worked this out for both the Premier League and for The Championship. The difference in current league positions are tiny. In fact, the current top 6 in The Championship remain exactly the same, just West Brom finish top whilst Leeds finish second.
To make this theory more reliable, I also took data of every single clubs league position in each game week of the season so far. I then performed a mean, median, and a mode of each club’s league position throughout the season. What I done next was to then take an overall average of the three averages. This was to get a true representation of where each club has spent the vast majority of the season.
What I done next was use statistical analysis tests to investigate the accuracy and reliability of comparing the overall average league positions to where each club would finish in the table if you took the results of the reverse fixtures.
In the Premier League, the ‘theoretical table’ against their averaged average league position was 97.38% correlated and the same. In The Championship, it was even closer with 98.26% correlated and the same.
I have all the data if people are actually interested further in what I am trying to explain.
I’ve emailed this proposal over to The EFL and am actually awaiting their reply.
You can think I am mad, and that’s fine. But it’s an idea that I’ve developed and statistically shows that it works. For this idea, it doesn’t have to include relegation as it wouldn’t be entirely fair for a club to be relegated on a statistical solution, even if their league position and form through the season has shown that’s where they should be.
Incidentally, we would survive and finish in 18th. But that’s not why I’ve done this.
For anyone arguing the idea, that’s good, debate is good. But this idea takes into account different periods of form throughout the season and takes into account an overall average league position of each club.
Two things:
1) How is the previous (reverse) result against any team predictive of the next game against that team … especially at the alternative venue? You ignore home/away advantage at a stroke.
2) Why on earth would you average mean, median and mode? It's like trying to find the average of 9 bananas, 7 apples and a melon (and that isn't 3 bananas, 2.33 apples and 0.33 melons or even 0.529 bananas, 0.412 apples and 0.059 melons).
Also, beware trusting correlations too much. Most people die in bed (highly correlated). So, stay out of bed and live longer.
Also … without wishing to sound unkind (ahem) … your erudite statistical analysis is not well-served by phrases such as 'What I done next ...".
Nice try, but don't expect the EFL to go for it.
1) I imagine previous results against a team are actually quite predictive of the next. You aren't going to find many cases where you lose 5-0 to someone away but then beat them 5-0 at home. 2) I probably agree with this.
You're right correlation doesn't imply causation but in this case Sage was just trying to show that if you use this method then the league positions don't actually change that much.
There are people that try to think of solutions and those that just like to dig at them. The second is easier to do. I know what is the best camp to be in.
How about they finish this season when it’s considered safe and then work it out from there going forwards.
So this season could re start January 21 finish March 21 and we miss a season or if it finishes December 20 we restart the next season as just a shorter season playing teams just once . Does the above help Liverpool win the League , yes , a fairer solution is cancel this season right here right now.
How does that work with out of contract players? If players leave then they have to be replaced which means a transfer window. Leeds could then gamble, spend £20m on a keeper to cover suspension. as the promised land is in touching distance
We already have a transfer window during the season, so this sort of thing could happen anyway. Re-starting the season from where we left off whenever it’s safe to do so, even if that’s post June 30th, would get my vote but I’m probably in the minority.
I disagree with this but I do t know why someone lol’d it. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
i think that the contract issue will result on the season becoming void. How many players would we loose? 10 as a guess
How about they finish this season when it’s considered safe and then work it out from there going forwards.
So this season could re start January 21 finish March 21 and we miss a season or if it finishes December 20 we restart the next season as just a shorter season playing teams just once . Does the above help Liverpool win the League , yes , a fairer solution is cancel this season right here right now.
How does that work with out of contract players? If players leave then they have to be replaced which means a transfer window. Leeds could then gamble, spend £20m on a keeper to cover suspension. as the promised land is in touching distance
We already have a transfer window during the season, so this sort of thing could happen anyway. Re-starting the season from where we left off whenever it’s safe to do so, even if that’s post June 30th, would get my vote but I’m probably in the minority.
I disagree with this but I do t know why someone lol’d it. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
i think that the contract issue will result on the season becoming void. How many players would we loose? 10 as a guess
Of course he's entitled to his opinion and i'm entitled to find it amusing. From my point of view as a Charlton fan I don't want us to be relegated which is quite likely if the season resumes. Selfish maybe and not in the spirit of good sportsmanship but I won't be the only one with that mindset with all the other crap going on at our club.
1) I imagine previous results against a team are actually quite predictive of the next. You aren't going to find many cases where you lose 5-0 to someone away but then beat them 5-0 at home. 2) I probably agree with this.
You're right correlation doesn't imply causation but in this case Sage was just trying to show that if you use this method then the league positions don't actually change that much.
No need to have a dig at him either
1) I think that you'll also struggle to find ANY examples where the pair of home and away results between two teams are consistently identical. It's a flawed starting point.
2) Yaay! (Probably)
3) Not sure what the correlation implies then. That two flawed approaches give a similar outcome?
Not a dig … although you are welcome to view it as such. Sage has sent this to the EFL with obvious expectations. He will be disappointed.
@MuttleyCAFC - Thanks for the dig. My solution? No way can you complete this season in any meaningful way. The period of suspension now means that any continuation of the current season will bear little resemblance to what has already gone on. They will be two separate parts, hence meaningless to view them together as a single season. You certainly can't speculate on what 'would have happened' as anyone who has ever tried to predict the outcome of football matches on a regular basis will know.
So, this season has to be abandoned. It didn't happen. And next season may also suffer a similar fate. OK with that?
Comments
You could've saved yourself a lot of time and effort and just put this line at the beginning. Would've got the same, if not more of a positive response
if the premier league are pushing for a return to action then why shouldn’t they speed up the process and contribute. If large corporate companies want to open sooner, then yes, they can contribute as well
Why September? Are FIFA saying there’ll be a vaccine available by September? Do they think there’ll be effective treatment or even a cure by then? Do you think that they’ll be able to guarantee that no player will develop a severe cough, or other symptoms of covid, requiring the rest of his team, and any team he’s played against to self isolate?
Money won't be an issue because Mr Bill Gates is going to save the world to make up for nicking all the software.
1) How is the previous (reverse) result against any team predictive of the next game against that team … especially at the alternative venue? You ignore home/away advantage at a stroke.
2) Why on earth would you average mean, median and mode? It's like trying to find the average of 9 bananas, 7 apples and a melon (and that isn't 3 bananas, 2.33 apples and 0.33 melons or even 0.529 bananas, 0.412 apples and 0.059 melons).
Also, beware trusting correlations too much. Most people die in bed (highly correlated). So, stay out of bed and live longer.
Also … without wishing to sound unkind (ahem) … your erudite statistical analysis is not well-served by phrases such as 'What I done next ...".
Nice try, but don't expect the EFL to go for it.
Does the above help Liverpool win the League , yes , a fairer solution is cancel this season right here right now.
2) I probably agree with this.
You're right correlation doesn't imply causation but in this case Sage was just trying to show that if you use this method then the league positions don't actually change that much.
No need to have a dig at him either
i think that the contract issue will result on the season becoming void. How many players would we loose? 10 as a guess
2) Yaay! (Probably)
3) Not sure what the correlation implies then. That two flawed approaches give a similar outcome?
Not a dig … although you are welcome to view it as such. Sage has sent this to the EFL with obvious expectations. He will be disappointed.
@MuttleyCAFC - Thanks for the dig. My solution? No way can you complete this season in any meaningful way. The period of suspension now means that any continuation of the current season will bear little resemblance to what has already gone on. They will be two separate parts, hence meaningless to view them together as a single season.
You certainly can't speculate on what 'would have happened' as anyone who has ever tried to predict the outcome of football matches on a regular basis will know.
So, this season has to be abandoned. It didn't happen. And next season may also suffer a similar fate. OK with that?