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Has Bowyer lost it?

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  • Valley11 said:
    DiscoCAFC said:
    Can I just point out when I started this thread it was straight after a loss so was feeling very agitated then. So what I’m about to say will contradict this.

    In a position we’re in given the circumstances from start of the season and before I think we’re doing ok. Not brilliant but ok.

    Lee’s had to put up with lots of shit during his time as a manager. 

    Some people talk about his first season and how it’s been easy for him but you got to remember we had a lower budget than the likes of Sunderland and Portsmouth. The likes of Bielik wasn’t a obvious player to have, he played a few games with Walsall before! Roland wasn’t investing heavily in the squad, our recent signing Ronnie was our most expensive signing under Lee. Sunderland paid £3M for Will Griggs and he hasn’t set a light. That should tell you a lot!

    Last season we let Bauer and Aribo go because Roland wouldn’t give them the wage they deserved and Roland wouldn’t invest in Bielik. We had the lowest budget in the Championship. If it wasn’t the sheer amount of injuries, ESI and prats like Taylor we would’ve stayed up. 

    This season, our biggest problem was the ownership circus and the wage cap. While we were in an embargo other teams were investing when we couldn’t and the wage cap didn’t come in until our ownership issue was sorted so we couldn’t invest like other teams around us did. Peterborough last night had JCH and he would’ve resolved our strike force issue.

    I think some of you need to look at the bigger picture. Bowyer isn’t perfect and I had my share of criticisms over some of his decisions but ffs he would’ve been a Premier League manager if he didn’t make those mistakes. Who’s going to come in to make us better?

    I feel we need to see what this January window bring’s, where we finish this season and potentially the start of next season where we stand with Bowyer. Replacing him now with someone else isn’t the right decision IMO.
    Exactly my thoughts. Perfectly summed up @discocafc
    Sounds like good summary @discocafc, and can we now assume whatever it was
    he had lost, he has now found?
  • We've got 14 points from the last 13 games in what has been a relatively easy run of fixtures - our season has been derailed by injuries to our two first choice CBs which doesn't say much for the squad or the manager's strategy.

    We need to get near 80 points to make the playoffs which would mean roughly averaging two points a game for the rest of the season. Seems unlikely.
  • We've got 14 points from the last 13 games in what has been a relatively easy run of fixtures - our season has been derailed by injuries to our two first choice CBs which doesn't say much for the squad or the manager's strategy.

    We need to get near 80 points to make the playoffs which would mean roughly averaging two points a game for the rest of the season. Seems unlikely.
    In fairness, not many managers/squads would do very well losing BOTH first choice CBs for such extended periods at once.

    Bowyer's made mistakes for sure but that kind of luck has derailed bigger and better squads than ours before.
  • Dave Rudd said:
    It is obvious that recent form and points accumulated is a strong indicator of how a team is performing.
    It is obvious that you would rather face a team out of form than a team in form.
    If a team is having their strong run at the end of the season and end up in the play offs, against a team having a poor run, the most likely outcome is the form team wins.

    It 100% does matter when you win the points, if there are play offs involved at the end of the season.
    The form team is more likely to win the play offs. 

    2 years ago Portsmouth and Sunderland had their strong runs early in the season and Charlton came through strongly at the end.

    The form team Charlton were promoted.
    Curbs knows it, Oggy knows it, most everyone knows it.
    There's no point trying again, it's apparent you don't understand.

    Haven't done the full research ... and I appreciate that this is Championship data ... but it would appear that you, Curbs, Oggy and 'most everyone' might be wrong.


    From the Stats Zone:

    - We can clearly see that over the last 10 years the team finishing in 3rd place has won the play offs 60% of the time, a significant advantage over the other final positions of those in the play offs.

    The next step is to look into the role of momentum for teams going into the play offs. Let's see how much of an important factor momentum has been in the past 10 years by looking into the form from the last 6 games prior to the play offs. The numbers in red denote the play off winners for that season.




    - Interestingly momentum seems to count for very little heading into the Championship play offs. Only once in the last 10 years has the team with the outright most amount of points from their last 6 games gone up via the play offs.

    - Only once has a team with the outright fewest points from the last 6 games gone on to win promotion via the play offs. This feat goes to Derby County in the 2006/07 season who blew their chances of automatic promotion but regained their composure to win the play offs.

    In the Championship finishing in 3rd place has yielded the greatest amount of success in terms of play off winners. Whilst having the greatest amount of momentum heading into the play offs doesn’t seem to have much impact at all.


    You will let me know if this is too hard to understand, won't you?



    You say the last 10 years I see 5 of them missing 🤷‍♂️
    Ummm ... it's from a website article written ... oh, I don't know ... maybe five years ago.

    I'm sure someone will be able to update ... and to include League 1 and League 2 ... but the point is established, I think.
  • Dave Rudd said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    It is obvious that recent form and points accumulated is a strong indicator of how a team is performing.
    It is obvious that you would rather face a team out of form than a team in form.
    If a team is having their strong run at the end of the season and end up in the play offs, against a team having a poor run, the most likely outcome is the form team wins.

    It 100% does matter when you win the points, if there are play offs involved at the end of the season.
    The form team is more likely to win the play offs. 

    2 years ago Portsmouth and Sunderland had their strong runs early in the season and Charlton came through strongly at the end.

    The form team Charlton were promoted.
    Curbs knows it, Oggy knows it, most everyone knows it.
    There's no point trying again, it's apparent you don't understand.

    Haven't done the full research ... and I appreciate that this is Championship data ... but it would appear that you, Curbs, Oggy and 'most everyone' might be wrong.


    From the Stats Zone:

    - We can clearly see that over the last 10 years the team finishing in 3rd place has won the play offs 60% of the time, a significant advantage over the other final positions of those in the play offs.

    The next step is to look into the role of momentum for teams going into the play offs. Let's see how much of an important factor momentum has been in the past 10 years by looking into the form from the last 6 games prior to the play offs. The numbers in red denote the play off winners for that season.




    - Interestingly momentum seems to count for very little heading into the Championship play offs. Only once in the last 10 years has the team with the outright most amount of points from their last 6 games gone up via the play offs.

    - Only once has a team with the outright fewest points from the last 6 games gone on to win promotion via the play offs. This feat goes to Derby County in the 2006/07 season who blew their chances of automatic promotion but regained their composure to win the play offs.

    In the Championship finishing in 3rd place has yielded the greatest amount of success in terms of play off winners. Whilst having the greatest amount of momentum heading into the play offs doesn’t seem to have much impact at all.


    You will let me know if this is too hard to understand, won't you?



    You say the last 10 years I see 5 of them missing 🤷‍♂️
    Ummm ... it's from a website article written ... oh, I don't know ... maybe five years ago.

    I'm sure someone will be able to update ... and to include League 1 and League 2 ... but the point is established, I think.
    Yeah you're right Dave mate. It would be 5 year


    😉
  • Dave Rudd said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    It is obvious that recent form and points accumulated is a strong indicator of how a team is performing.
    It is obvious that you would rather face a team out of form than a team in form.
    If a team is having their strong run at the end of the season and end up in the play offs, against a team having a poor run, the most likely outcome is the form team wins.

    It 100% does matter when you win the points, if there are play offs involved at the end of the season.
    The form team is more likely to win the play offs. 

    2 years ago Portsmouth and Sunderland had their strong runs early in the season and Charlton came through strongly at the end.

    The form team Charlton were promoted.
    Curbs knows it, Oggy knows it, most everyone knows it.
    There's no point trying again, it's apparent you don't understand.

    Haven't done the full research ... and I appreciate that this is Championship data ... but it would appear that you, Curbs, Oggy and 'most everyone' might be wrong.


    From the Stats Zone:

    - We can clearly see that over the last 10 years the team finishing in 3rd place has won the play offs 60% of the time, a significant advantage over the other final positions of those in the play offs.

    The next step is to look into the role of momentum for teams going into the play offs. Let's see how much of an important factor momentum has been in the past 10 years by looking into the form from the last 6 games prior to the play offs. The numbers in red denote the play off winners for that season.




    - Interestingly momentum seems to count for very little heading into the Championship play offs. Only once in the last 10 years has the team with the outright most amount of points from their last 6 games gone up via the play offs.

    - Only once has a team with the outright fewest points from the last 6 games gone on to win promotion via the play offs. This feat goes to Derby County in the 2006/07 season who blew their chances of automatic promotion but regained their composure to win the play offs.

    In the Championship finishing in 3rd place has yielded the greatest amount of success in terms of play off winners. Whilst having the greatest amount of momentum heading into the play offs doesn’t seem to have much impact at all.


    You will let me know if this is too hard to understand, won't you?



    You say the last 10 years I see 5 of them missing 🤷‍♂️
    Ummm ... it's from a website article written ... oh, I don't know ... maybe five years ago.

    I'm sure someone will be able to update ... and to include League 1 and League 2 ... but the point is established, I think.
    Yeah you're right Dave mate. It would be 5 year


    😉
    Or four.
  • To answer the original question I'm not sure I would use the term "lost it" , but the fact that we have only picked up a point a game or so over the last 2 months mainly against teams below us shows that something clearly isn't right. We are a relatively big fish in the League 1 pond and I'm sure TS is watching the situation closely. I don't expect anything to happen in the next month or so but I don't think he has kept faith with bowyer for us to finish 8th or 9th this season, and if that looks like being the case I would expect him to make a change, and I don't think you could blame him if he does.
  • thenewbie said:
    We've got 14 points from the last 13 games in what has been a relatively easy run of fixtures - our season has been derailed by injuries to our two first choice CBs which doesn't say much for the squad or the manager's strategy.

    We need to get near 80 points to make the playoffs which would mean roughly averaging two points a game for the rest of the season. Seems unlikely.
    In fairness, not many managers/squads would do very well losing BOTH first choice CBs for such extended periods at once.

    Bowyer's made mistakes for sure but that kind of luck has derailed bigger and better squads than ours before.
    Managing your squad isn't all down to luck.
    Losing both CBs doesn't help but surely we should have done better than 14pts in the last 13? We're in L1 and plenty of the teams we play have limited squads. LB has to take some responsibility for team selections/tactics. 
  • thenewbie said:
    We've got 14 points from the last 13 games in what has been a relatively easy run of fixtures - our season has been derailed by injuries to our two first choice CBs which doesn't say much for the squad or the manager's strategy.

    We need to get near 80 points to make the playoffs which would mean roughly averaging two points a game for the rest of the season. Seems unlikely.
    In fairness, not many managers/squads would do very well losing BOTH first choice CBs for such extended periods at once.

    Bowyer's made mistakes for sure but that kind of luck has derailed bigger and better squads than ours before.
    Managing your squad isn't all down to luck.
    Losing both CBs doesn't help but surely we should have done better than 14pts in the last 13? We're in L1 and plenty of the teams we play have limited squads. LB has to take some responsibility for team selections/tactics. 
    And if you're weak at the back, maybe you should be concentrating on scoring enough goals that it doesn't matter
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  • edited January 2021
    To be honest, you have to praise BT for alerting me to a security issue with my broadband when I don't even get it from BT.
  • Dave Rudd said:
    It is obvious that recent form and points accumulated is a strong indicator of how a team is performing.
    It is obvious that you would rather face a team out of form than a team in form.
    If a team is having their strong run at the end of the season and end up in the play offs, against a team having a poor run, the most likely outcome is the form team wins.

    It 100% does matter when you win the points, if there are play offs involved at the end of the season.
    The form team is more likely to win the play offs. 

    2 years ago Portsmouth and Sunderland had their strong runs early in the season and Charlton came through strongly at the end.

    The form team Charlton were promoted.
    Curbs knows it, Oggy knows it, most everyone knows it.
    There's no point trying again, it's apparent you don't understand.

    Haven't done the full research ... and I appreciate that this is Championship data ... but it would appear that you, Curbs, Oggy and 'most everyone' might be wrong.



    You will let me know if this is too hard to understand, won't you?


    Thank you, @Dave_Rudd

    Rare praise, indeed ....... it's not often I've been mentioned in the same breath as Curbs. :smile:


  • Dave Rudd said:
    It is obvious that recent form and points accumulated is a strong indicator of how a team is performing.
    It is obvious that you would rather face a team out of form than a team in form.
    If a team is having their strong run at the end of the season and end up in the play offs, against a team having a poor run, the most likely outcome is the form team wins.

    It 100% does matter when you win the points, if there are play offs involved at the end of the season.
    The form team is more likely to win the play offs. 

    2 years ago Portsmouth and Sunderland had their strong runs early in the season and Charlton came through strongly at the end.

    The form team Charlton were promoted.
    Curbs knows it, Oggy knows it, most everyone knows it.
    There's no point trying again, it's apparent you don't understand.

    Haven't done the full research ... and I appreciate that this is Championship data ... but it would appear that you, Curbs, Oggy and 'most everyone' might be wrong.


    From the Stats Zone:

    - We can clearly see that over the last 10 years the team finishing in 3rd place has won the play offs 60% of the time, a significant advantage over the other final positions of those in the play offs.

    The next step is to look into the role of momentum for teams going into the play offs. Let's see how much of an important factor momentum has been in the past 10 years by looking into the form from the last 6 games prior to the play offs. The numbers in red denote the play off winners for that season.




    - Interestingly momentum seems to count for very little heading into the Championship play offs. Only once in the last 10 years has the team with the outright most amount of points from their last 6 games gone up via the play offs.

    - Only once has a team with the outright fewest points from the last 6 games gone on to win promotion via the play offs. This feat goes to Derby County in the 2006/07 season who blew their chances of automatic promotion but regained their composure to win the play offs.

    In the Championship finishing in 3rd place has yielded the greatest amount of success in terms of play off winners. Whilst having the greatest amount of momentum heading into the play offs doesn’t seem to have much impact at all.


    You will let me know if this is too hard to understand, won't you?


    We are in L1 not The Championship. The discussion is not about Championship teams between 2005/2015.

    The main point is that we are discussing Charlton this season and 2 seasons ago.

    I think most would appreciate that the 6th place team is unlikely to beat teams that are better than them who end up 3rd, 4th or perhaps 5th.
    They are not likely to beat them, even if the higher teams aren't in such good form, if the other teams are better.

    2 years ago Sunderland and Portsmouth were better than Charlton in the January.
    Charlton were in poor form, like now and it is was unlikely Charlton would have won the play offs, if they were played in the January.

    Charlton were much stronger at the end of the season, they were the form team and arguably would have won the league if there had been another 5 games.

    So Charlton the form team and looking better than the other 3 teams, won the play offs.

    This season it is possible that there could be a repeat.
    Once again Charlton are not in good form in January, but there is half a season to go.
    If we can strengthen the team and some others do not or weaken.
    If we get our centre halves back.
    If we hit April on a winning run and come the end of the season we are looking a better team than our rivals, then once again we could get promoted via the play offs (if not automatically).

    So the point being made is that it is more important for Charlton to be on a winning run at the end of the season, be the best team at the end of the season, than it is to be the best team this week and then fall away like Ipswich did 2 years ago.

    Thanks. 
    Trump's gone.  We deal in facts now.

    But I do apologise for destroying your wishful thinking with hard data.  Maybe get back to beating some pots with spoons to make sure that the Sun comes up tomorrow?

    Try not to fall for too many more examples of football folklore.  I can't keep doing this.
  • So you still don't understand.
  • Frantically Google’s Margot Robbie 
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  • Frantically Google’s Margot Robbie 
    Oi, stop perving over my Missus!!
  • So you still don't understand.
    I'm sure you can help me.

    Just to be clear ... your idea of 'momentum' only applies in League 1 ... as you dismiss the very same idea applying to the Championship.  Is that right?

    That might take some explaining.

    Here's a link to the Flat Earth thread. 

    Flat Earth or Not? - Page 5 — Charlton Life  

    I'm sure that's where you want to be.  All your chums are there.  
  • Klopp must have ‘lost it’ too huh?
  • esseffect said:
    Klopp must have ‘lost it’ too huh?
    How many games have they won this season? And how many in the last 10?
  • edited January 2021
    I think we are in big trouble and it’ll be a few years  down here and then become even harder as Championship teams come down with far higher quality, bigger teams like us and Sunderland can’t buy there way out. So it’s a massive problem, the youth will have to have very real financial incentives built into promotion to TRY and keep hold of them, I have a bad feeling that Durchatelet really has had the last laugh here. 

    But Sandgaard is smart and so is Lee and Gallen, it’s just going to get harder and harder, unless we find some other way, which I can’t see at the moment. 
  • esseffect said:
    Klopp must have ‘lost it’ too huh?
    In their last 5, 3 draws and 2 losses, failed to score in 4. Jokes aside, knowing Liverpool fans there will be a few doubting him or the players despite having a fantastic 2/3 years or so.


  • Dave Rudd said:

    Haven't done the full research ... and I appreciate that this is Championship data ... but it would appear that you, Curbs, Oggy and 'most everyone' might be wrong.


    From the Stats Zone:

    - We can clearly see that over the last 10 years the team finishing in 3rd place has won the play offs 60% of the time, a significant advantage over the other final positions of those in the play offs.

    The next step is to look into the role of momentum for teams going into the play offs. Let's see how much of an important factor momentum has been in the past 10 years by looking into the form from the last 6 games prior to the play offs. The numbers in red denote the play off winners for that season.




    - Interestingly momentum seems to count for very little heading into the Championship play offs. Only once in the last 10 years has the team with the outright most amount of points from their last 6 games gone up via the play offs.

    - Only once has a team with the outright fewest points from the last 6 games gone on to win promotion via the play offs. This feat goes to Derby County in the 2006/07 season who blew their chances of automatic promotion but regained their composure to win the play offs.

    In the Championship finishing in 3rd place has yielded the greatest amount of success in terms of play off winners. Whilst having the greatest amount of momentum heading into the play offs doesn’t seem to have much impact at all.


    You will let me know if this is too hard to understand, won't you?


    Love your research, Dave.

  • mascot88 said:
    I think we are in big trouble and it’ll be a few years  down here and then become even harder as Championship teams come down with far higher quality, bigger teams like us and Sunderland can’t buy there way out. So it’s a massive problem, the youth will have to have very real financial incentives built into promotion to TRY and keep hold of them, I have a bad feeling that Durchatelet really has had the last laugh here. 

    But Sandgaard is smart and so is Lee and Gallen, it’s just going to get harder and harder, unless we find some other way, which I can’t see at the moment. 
    Duchatelet?
  • thenewbie said:
    We've got 14 points from the last 13 games in what has been a relatively easy run of fixtures - our season has been derailed by injuries to our two first choice CBs which doesn't say much for the squad or the manager's strategy.

    We need to get near 80 points to make the playoffs which would mean roughly averaging two points a game for the rest of the season. Seems unlikely.
    In fairness, not many managers/squads would do very well losing BOTH first choice CBs for such extended periods at once.

    Bowyer's made mistakes for sure but that kind of luck has derailed bigger and better squads than ours before.
    Luck has derailed us but so has keeping a centre half on the bench and playing a 35 year old midfielder there, playing an attacking winger/forward as wing back, right back at left back etc. Luck cannot be the only valid reason for 14 points out of 42. The managers tactics and selections also need to be considered.

    bowyer deserves until the end of the season but if we do not make the play offs, his job is under threat and rightly so. If we make the flat offs and fall short, then bowyer gets another year. If we go up, bowyer needs financial baking. 
This discussion has been closed.

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