The simplest way I can see England avoiding Netherlands in the round of 16: beat Slovenia by a clear 3-4 goals, have Denmark beat Serbia and Czech Republic beat Georgia.
haven't even started drinking yet and I already have a head ache!
I think I over complicated it a bit… if Denmark and Czech win, it doesn’t matter how many goals England win by. As long as all three of those teams win, England would play Turkey or Georgia.
who would be in our little QF bracket in that scenario though? Belgium? Also we would still need to win by more goals than denmark win by wouldn't we?
Italy are in our quarter if we win the group. Belgium would be in our half of the draw but a different quarter section so a possible semi final opponent.
some of the 'Euro Royalty' (France, Netherlands, Belgium, England) are seriously underperforming and being outfought and outmanoeuvred by some of the unconsidered 'newer' nations .. time for the big boys to assert some authority and get cracking
some of the 'Euro Royalty' (France, Netherlands, Belgium, England) are seriously underperforming and being outfought and outmanoeuvred by some of the unconsidered 'newer' nations .. time for the big boys to assert some authority and get cracking
Now though is when royalty can turn it up in these tournaments - Have Austria used too much energy just getting out of the Group in the first place?
One round of games completed… if the groups were final at this moment in time, the round of 16 would look like this:
Spain(1B) v Czechia(3F)
Germany(1A) v Denmark(2C)
Turkey(1F) v Albania(3B)
France(2D) v Slovakia(2E)
Romania(1E) v Slovenia(3C)
Netherlands(1D) v Portugal(2F)
England(1C) v Poland(3D)
Switzerland(2A) v Italy(2B)
Updated after two games played:
Spain(1B) v Slovakia(3E)
Germany(1A) v Denmark(2C)
Portugal(1F) v Slovenia(3C)
France(2D) v Belgium(2E)
Romania(1E) v Albania(3B)
Netherlands(1D) v Turkey(2F)
England(1C) v Austria(3D)
Switzerland(2A) v Italy(2B)
Update after Group A completed (teams in bold guaranteed):
Spain(1B) v Slovakia(3E)
Germany(1A) v Denmark(2C)
Portugal(1F) v Hungary(3A)
France(2D) v Belgium(2E)
Romania(1E) v Slovenia(3C)
Netherlands(1D) v Turkey(2F)
England(1C) v Austria(3D)
Switzerland(2A) v Italy(2B)
Update after Group B completed (teams in bold guaranteed):
Spain(1B) v Slovakia(3E)
Germany(1A) v Denmark(2C)
Portugal(1F) v Hungary(3A)
France(2D) v Belgium(2E)
Romania(1E) v Slovenia(3C)
Netherlands(1D) v Turkey(2F)
England(1C) v Austria(3D)
Switzerland(2A) v Italy(2B)
Not much changes - only Italy confirms their place tonight.
Croatia aren't done yet - but they are relying on us beating Slovenia 3-0 or by four clear goals tomorrow (plus a few other silly results go their way).
Update after Group D completed (teams in bold guaranteed):
Spain(1B) v Slovakia(3E)
Germany(1A) v Denmark(2C)
Portugal(1F) v Hungary(3A)
France(2D) v Belgium(2E)
Romania(1E) v Slovenia(3C)
Austria(1D) v Turkey(2F)
England(1C) v Netherlands(3D)
Switzerland(2A) v Italy(2B)
Update after Group C completed (teams in bold guaranteed):
Netherlands will beat us if we get them. They looked average today but I think any team that brings it to us score and we just don't look capable of getting 2 in a game
Regarding third placed teams, there is now only three possible combinations:
ACDE ACDF CDEF
In the two combinations where Hungary qualify from Group A, they would face Portugal, Slovenia would face the winner of Group E and England would face the Netherlands.
In the third combination (CDEF), Slovenia would face Portugal, England would face third Group E, winner of Group E would face Netherlands.
@Callumcafc - what needs to happen now for it not to be Holland?
Hungary not to qualify. So Czech Republic to beat Turkey by no more than two goals OR Georgia to beat Portugal and at least one draw in Group E tomorrow.
Edit: technically the draw in Group E isn’t needed in every case but it makes it a lot simpler if there is one! Otherwise you’re comparing Hungary’s -3 GD with teams from Group E.
Netherlands will beat us if we get them. They looked average today but I think any team that brings it to us score and we just don't look capable of getting 2 in a game
Don’t know if the Dutch can play with a low block, as has worked in this group, they will want to try and have a go, and that will help England
@Callumcafc - what needs to happen now for it not to be Holland?
Hungary not to qualify. So Czech Republic to beat Turkey by no more than two goals OR Georgia to beat Portugal and at least one draw in Group E tomorrow.
Here’s a graphic on the possibilities I found on Twitter. No clue what formula they’re using to get exact percentages though it gives a good guide to what’s likely.
Netherlands will beat us if we get them. They looked average today but I think any team that brings it to us score and we just don't look capable of getting 2 in a game
Don’t know if the Dutch can play with a low block, as has worked in this group, they will want to try and have a go, and that will help England
England are back to tournament favourites after that France result by the way!
Are we still favourites?
Surprisingly perhaps yes. I think it’s purely because all four of the other five favourites are in the same side of the draw together now… if England somehow get to the final from here, they’d definitely be underdogs against any one of those four IMO.
@Callumcafc - what needs to happen now for it not to be Holland?
Hungary not to qualify. So Czech Republic to beat Turkey by no more than two goals OR Georgia to beat Portugal and at least one draw in Group E tomorrow.
Edit: technically the draw in Group E isn’t needed in every case but it makes it a lot simpler if there is one! Otherwise you’re comparing Hungary’s -3 GD with teams from Group E.
so... are we saying that Scotland may have actually had the last laugh by conceding so late against them...? (or how they could spin it)
As poor as we have been with the players available to Southgate, no one has looked consistently decent but maybe Spain. We’ve been given a bye to the final with only Holland being a slight problem (we’ll turn them over with a slight uptick )
so anything can happen in a final it’s not over , we have dross in our half
As poor as we have been with the players available to Southgate, no one has looked consistently decent but maybe Spain. We’ve been given a bye to the final with only Holland being a slight problem (we’ll turn them over with a slight uptick )
so anything can happen in a final it’s not over , we have dross in our half
Yup. But Southgate has previous for f…g up a lucky draw!
Netherlands will be difficult but not impossible, but we really need to add some pace to our attacks, the slow build up kills us and is easy to defend against. Maybe that changes when teams give it a go against us and the game opens up but I'm not so sure.
Comments
A lot of big countries on the other side of the draw if we win tonight. But unless we play better we'd lose against a team like Austria anyway.
Spain(1B) v Slovakia(3E)
Germany(1A) v Denmark(2C)
Portugal(1F) v Hungary(3A)
France(2D) v Belgium(2E)
Romania(1E) v Slovenia(3C)
Austria(1D) v Turkey(2F)
England(1C) v Netherlands(3D)
Switzerland(2A) v Italy(2B)
ACDE
ACDF
CDEF
In the two combinations where Hungary qualify from Group A, they would face Portugal, Slovenia would face the winner of Group E and England would face the Netherlands.
In the third combination (CDEF), Slovenia would face Portugal, England would face third Group E, winner of Group E would face Netherlands.
Edit: technically the draw in Group E isn’t needed in every case but it makes it a lot simpler if there is one! Otherwise you’re comparing Hungary’s -3 GD with teams from Group E.
We’ve been given a bye to the final with only Holland being a slight problem (we’ll turn them over with a slight uptick )
so anything can happen in a final
it’s not over , we have dross in our half