Nombe seems close, then. Okay. Hope we aren't paying much more than we paid for May, if it's happening.
As much as I am pleased with signing Alfie May, I have a couple of reservations about Sam Nombe, and am not quite as excited. I don't think his overall goalscoring record is demonstrative of much beyond one good season and one decent season (in a league below, curtailed by injury). I have to admit though, I am NOT overly familiar with his all-round play, and I am not familiar with how Exeter have set up their side.
That said, I did the classic "watch all his goals last season" thing and got the following. Here's a goal-by-goal breakdown, and here is the reference video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-wQ4N1pliE
[First up, the direction of this vid feels very Blair Witch Project. It was quite hard to watch more than once. Loads of unsettling camera angles.]
Goal 1: yeah, cool. Great work from Jevani Brown to slice open the defence, perfectly weighted pass. Does well to stay level/onside, finishes with aplomb. Good goal.
Goal 2: Fair enough - he's being hugged all over. Strong lad, pokes it in. I'd say that's a fairly run of the mill goal you'd expect most strikers at this level to score though if they get the ball in that position.
Goal 3: Unmarked tap-in. Defender has had a mare. Again, pretty bog standard.
Goal 4: Great header. Alfie May ain't scoring those.
Goal 5: Defensive error; Brown plays him through; slides it under the keeper from a tight angle. Not sure that sort of shot always goes in, but hey, good finish.
Goal 6: Defence and keeper hand it to him on a plate. He has a bit of a turn of foot but I don't actually think he is THAT quick in this particular clip. The mix-up is what gifts him the goal here.
Goal 7: Penalty against us
Goal 8: Winger makes that goal in my humble opinion. Good that he finishes it but the ball is placed perfectly onto his foot and even while he's holding off the man, it'd be a far worse miss than good goal. Again, strikers at this level should score those.
Goal 9: Defensive error and good work from Jay Stansfield who plays a really good weighted ball. I'd say he has a turn of foot - but milk turns quicker than that centre back. Okay finish over the keeper. Maybe not every L1 striker gets to that ball to be fair.
Goal 10: He's left unmarked from the initial cross which is poor. Ball fumbles its way toward him and he has a couple of bites at the cherry. Dustbin. Another day and the defenders successfully block that.
Goal 11: Nah that's class.
Goal 12: Route one, absolute gift central.
Goal 13: Shot blocked, keeper out of position, slots it into a cavernous gap between two defenders. Every centre back should be scoring opportunities like that!
Goal 14: Again, a gift. Beats a defender on pace and slides it into an open goal.
Goal 15: Good finish. Not too many score those.
Goal 16: Couldn't ask for an easier goal after some pinball.
Goal 17: Penalty.
-------------------------
Positives:
- Knack of being in the right place at the right time. Tends to just "stand there" in the box and tracks the ball, only moving when close in range. Having not seen his non-goals, this feels like it is extremely effective, but I wonder if we'd get frustrated at him not moving onto crosses sometimes, or anticipating ball movement.
- Turn of foot that, in this league, does just about enough. I don't think he is rapid but he's obviously got a decent enough first 15 yards.
- He feels like a "reactive" rather than proactive player. Latches on to mistakes, waits for the ball to be in an opportune place in the box - not quite sure he always goes fully after the ball in attacking situations. But I could be wrong.
- A lot of these goals have come from high expectation scenarios (two penalties, at least three if not four tantamount to "open" goals with keepers nowhere). I think this is an indicator more of luck that he gets into these situations, more than manufacturing. I would expect some regression in terms of chance quality - how many times are you gonna latch onto terrible back passes? - but hey, he's on the right trajectory and has improved in each of his last two seasons.
- In the second highlights video (the MK Dons one) he ain't really scoring loads! But hey that seems to have come since.
------------------------
So - like, if he signs, welcome. Seems to want to prove himself, seems like a good lad, seems like he works hard. And hard work is something I think is going to be very important for any Dean Holden side.
I'm not excited but neither am I greatly underwhelmed. Hopefully I am pleasantly surprised!
Of course we'd be paying more than we did for May, he's younger with sell on potential. He's a very good player. I'm surprised you didn't notice him when playing against us. An analysis based on video clips tells you nothing. Of those available this summer Nombe would have been top of the list but I thought he'd be unobtainable. If we can sign him it will be a cracking bit of business.
The operative there for me is the word "much" - like, obviously I'm okay with us paying a bit of a fee. Evidently he's well regarded: equally, noticing someone playing against us tells us little about a player (Jaiyesimi for instance), and while a video clip analysis is very condensed and in no way captures everything, I know this which is why I've qualified what I've said above.
Like I said, I have a different opinion - if I'm proven wrong then I'll be delighted.
Why does us paying a fee, specifically the size of the fee, matter? If the manager wants a player and the owner is prepared to stump it up, the club doesn't have any money, what's the problem if it's 300k, 500k, 1 million or more?
Well, to me it is indicative of good decision making if you can drive a bargain. People still take the piss at £4m or whatever it was for Will Grigg; we've had flops that have cost before, and I don't want us to have many more.
But at the same time, if Holden wants him and our "limit" is 300k, would you rather us pay 400k for someone Holden wants or then panic and spend 300k on someone we weren't as keen on?
We have also had flops that were "free" but eating up wages.
I heard Stuart Pearce on the wireless saying (about the premier league specifically) that in general one goal equates to one point over a season. If your team scores 70 goals you’ll end up with around 70 points. So with the prospect of Nombe and May, and a cautionary assumption that their scoring return might dip by 10%, that would be 35 goals between them less 10% which could mean they get us 32 points next season. By my very crude and simplistic calculation even with Nombe and May playing we need another 60 goals from elsewhere in the team (according to the Stuart Pearce notion anyway) for automatic promotion.
No, not too true.
A cursory look at the last couple of seasons show that successful teams will get 10-20% more points than the goals they score at the top end of the table:
That we scored 70 goals and only got 62 points last year points to a big problem in defence. Indeed, the common adage is that attack wins games and defence wins you titles.
In any case - between Nombe (if he signs) and May, if they both get 35 goals between them, that's the "equivalent" of say 38 points. If we get another 40-45 goals (12 from Leaburn, 8 from Fraser; 10 between CBT and Campbell, 10 from the rest) then that's defo promotion contention.
Worth remembering Cawley linked us with Edun on 20th June (said it was a priority) and it was done earlier this week. Shows deals can move quickly if it works for all parties.
The guy on their board "duke roll" has written "apparently" and approx £500k-700k. 30-35% goes to MK Dons. He referenced this as a Chunk and I did actually think I read Chuks!
I'd be doubtful and say Dubai is most accurate here.
If we do get Nombe in and possibly another striker on loan, I wonder if we'll actually start to see a bit more of Chuks with the pressure on him to play reduced. It's not for anyone to diagnose strangers but Chuks has been injured so many times and has probably had so much physical pain that mentally he must be far more attuned to any tweaks he feels in his body. If we have a very competitive front two where May, Leaburn, Nombe and another are competing to get into the line-up I wonder if the mental burden will ease on Chuks a bit and he can get onto the bench a bit more, feel less like he's got to get out there and be an option to be thrown on at the end of games. The Chuks we know is probably the best player to bring on in the league and counter-intuitively we might actually see him more when we need him less and reap the benefits.
Like all players, he’s worth whatever someone pays. If Holden wants him, I’ll support the signing. It’s not coming out of my pocket
Depends who else is available too.
We tried for Smith on a free, we enquiries about Ladapo and it was a no. If the other options start to run out, Exeter will know they can get a bit more for Nombe.
If we do get Nombe in and possibly another striker on loan, I wonder if we'll actually start to see a bit more of Chuks with the pressure on him to play reduced. It's not for anyone to diagnose strangers but Chuks has been injured so many times and has probably had so much physical pain that mentally he must be far more attuned to any tweaks he feels in his body. If we have a very competitive front two where May, Leaburn, Nombe and another are competing to get into the line-up I wonder if the mental burden will ease on Chuks a bit and he can get onto the bench a bit more, feel less like he's got to get out there and be an option to be thrown on at the end of games. The Chuks we know is probably the best player to bring on in the league and counter-intuitively we might actually see him more when we need him less and reap the benefits.
He’s got to get fully fit first. Currently injured and no proper pre season again. I’d say the omens are not good.
If we do get Nombe in and possibly another striker on loan, I wonder if we'll actually start to see a bit more of Chuks with the pressure on him to play reduced. It's not for anyone to diagnose strangers but Chuks has been injured so many times and has probably had so much physical pain that mentally he must be far more attuned to any tweaks he feels in his body. If we have a very competitive front two where May, Leaburn, Nombe and another are competing to get into the line-up I wonder if the mental burden will ease on Chuks a bit and he can get onto the bench a bit more, feel less like he's got to get out there and be an option to be thrown on at the end of games. The Chuks we know is probably the best player to bring on in the league and counter-intuitively we might actually see him more when we need him less and reap the benefits.
I'm not so sure, as your plan is built around hope. He injured himself in a warmup and then within 1 minute of coming on. You can hardly have any less load and expectation than that. Probably best to move this chat to the Aneke thread suppose.
If we do get Nombe in and possibly another striker on loan, I wonder if we'll actually start to see a bit more of Chuks with the pressure on him to play reduced. It's not for anyone to diagnose strangers but Chuks has been injured so many times and has probably had so much physical pain that mentally he must be far more attuned to any tweaks he feels in his body. If we have a very competitive front two where May, Leaburn, Nombe and another are competing to get into the line-up I wonder if the mental burden will ease on Chuks a bit and he can get onto the bench a bit more, feel less like he's got to get out there and be an option to be thrown on at the end of games. The Chuks we know is probably the best player to bring on in the league and counter-intuitively we might actually see him more when we need him less and reap the benefits.
I do wonder if we will try something completely different with Chuks now. No point trying to get him 90 minutes fit, because it's not going to happen.
If we do get Nombe in and possibly another striker on loan, I wonder if we'll actually start to see a bit more of Chuks with the pressure on him to play reduced. It's not for anyone to diagnose strangers but Chuks has been injured so many times and has probably had so much physical pain that mentally he must be far more attuned to any tweaks he feels in his body. If we have a very competitive front two where May, Leaburn, Nombe and another are competing to get into the line-up I wonder if the mental burden will ease on Chuks a bit and he can get onto the bench a bit more, feel less like he's got to get out there and be an option to be thrown on at the end of games. The Chuks we know is probably the best player to bring on in the league and counter-intuitively we might actually see him more when we need him less and reap the benefits.
I do wonder if we will try something completely different with Chuks now. No point trying to get him 90 minutes fit, because it's not going to happen.
May was reportedly £250k - so maybe not, but Nombe has an age advantage.
Nombe being six years younger will also come into the equation.
May unlikely to have any resale value in two or three years. If Nombe does well, he could be worth five times the fee Exeter are asking by the time he’s 26/27.
DH said deals would be announced through the proper channels .. if they don’t tell their own TV station ( Terry transfer) there not going to tell the local press first
DH said deals would be announced through the proper channels .. if they don’t tell their own TV station ( Terry transfer) there not going to tell the local press first
Apart from the fact that Cawley has broke every single transfer of our window so far ~48 hour before they happen, you mean?
He jumped on the bandwagon when everyone was saying it was done, said he'd heard it was done also, slagged off RC for being behind the news, and now realizing his mistake has backtracked and appears much more lukewarm on the progress. He's a remarkable guy, but apparently always right as he likes to mention on the odd occasion.
I heard Stuart Pearce on the wireless saying (about the premier league specifically) that in general one goal equates to one point over a season. If your team scores 70 goals you’ll end up with around 70 points. So with the prospect of Nombe and May, and a cautionary assumption that their scoring return might dip by 10%, that would be 35 goals between them less 10% which could mean they get us 32 points next season. By my very crude and simplistic calculation even with Nombe and May playing we need another 60 goals from elsewhere in the team (according to the Stuart Pearce notion anyway) for automatic promotion.
DH said deals would be announced through the proper channels .. if they don’t tell their own TV station ( Terry transfer) there not going to tell the local press first
Exeter might though. Plymouth isn't that far, might be worth finding out what the Herald know.
DH said deals would be announced through the proper channels .. if they don’t tell their own TV station ( Terry transfer) there not going to tell the local press first
DH said deals would be announced through the proper channels .. if they don’t tell their own TV station ( Terry transfer) there not going to tell the local press first
Apart from the fact that Cawley has broke every single transfer of our window so far ~48 hour before they happen, you mean?
Think Taylor come out on Instagram first … think RC answer was he a player we are interested in ?
Comments
We have also had flops that were "free" but eating up wages.
No one wants flops no matter how much they cost.
A cursory look at the last couple of seasons show that successful teams will get 10-20% more points than the goals they score at the top end of the table:
- Wigan 21/22: 82 goals 92 pts, 1st
- Rotherham 21/22: 70 goals 90 pts, 2nd
- MK Dons 21/22: 78 goals 89 points, 3rd
- Plymouth 22/23: 82 goals 101 pts, 1st
- Ipswich 22/23: 101 goals 98 pts, 2nd (this is freakish though imo)
- Sheff Wed 22/23: 81 goals 96 pts, 3rd
- Barnsley 22/23: 80 goals 86 pts, 4th
That we scored 70 goals and only got 62 points last year points to a big problem in defence. Indeed, the common adage is that attack wins games and defence wins you titles.
In any case - between Nombe (if he signs) and May, if they both get 35 goals between them, that's the "equivalent" of say 38 points. If we get another 40-45 goals (12 from Leaburn, 8 from Fraser; 10 between CBT and Campbell, 10 from the rest) then that's defo promotion contention.
I'd be doubtful and say Dubai is most accurate here.
We tried for Smith on a free, we enquiries about Ladapo and it was a no. If the other options start to run out, Exeter will know they can get a bit more for Nombe.
Can you get someone 20 minutes fit?