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2023/24 Betting Thread

Few things that have caught my eye already although I appreciate it’s very early, plus I feel like there’s some good punters on here so I’d like to hear from others before having a go:

Bournemouth relegation 15/8
Feel like a good run at the right time saved them last season plus they still have an inexperienced manager.  

Crystal Palace finish top half 9/4
As there’s so many teams in Europe next season and quite a few smaller teams I think they’re a good bet (unfortunately), they’ve got some young players who got better as the season progressed and will only continue to improve.

Burnley to stay up 4/7
Not great odds but I think they’ve got everything in place to stay up manager players etc, good bet in a multiple.

Ipswich top 6 finish 2/1
We know how well they ended the season and of course how much money they’ve got behind currently, fancy them to carry on the momentum.

Rotherham relegation 7/4
Great bet when you consider how tough the championship looks next season, plus they rarely stay up there for long.

Derby promotion 9/4
Be amazed if they don’t make a go of it next season and they’ll throw money at it again.

Charlton top 6 finish 2/1
You'll laugh but why not, the league looks weaker, we might actually buy players!

Wrexham promotion 5/6
Not a great price but I can’t see them stopping at the moment.

Gillingham top 7 finish 1/1
Great price they finished the season well and will build on that with their new investors.

Any tips/suggestions/hunches welcomed!!
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Comments

  • edited June 2023
    Started my research as going to be producing some articles for a betting site towards end of July. 

    Haven’t got a price yet, but Everton to score least goals in the premier league next season is one I have written down in my note book.

    Cardiff to be relegated at 5/1 looked a fair price. Apparently new manager is well rated but haven’t done any research into him yet.
  • Started my research as going to be producing some articles for a betting site towards end of July. 

    Haven’t got a price yet, but Everton to score least goals in the premier league next season is one I have written down in my note book.
    That would be a skybet request a bet then I assume, fancy Sheffield United to run them close on that one.  
  • edited June 2023
    Have kept an eye out but not all bookies have opened up their odds for next season and things like top half finishes or National League finishes seem to be markets not yet opened.
    I also found only Paddy Power allowed me to include multiple teams in the same division in my accy last year so am waiting on them.
    In my thoughts are

    Bromley top half of National League; Chesterfield top 6
    Wrexham, Stockport and Gills top 7 in League 2
    Derby, Barnsley, Portsmouth and Bolton top 6 in L1
    Leicester and Ipswich top 6 of Championship
    Luton relegated, Man City win title.

    Put all them together for half decent odds I suspect.

    Thing with all lower league teams is the stability of the owners as it just takes Gills lot for instance to decide they didn't realize how much footy costs and bail to ruin the bet so I will likely wait till closer to the end of the window and accept that may mean poorer odds.

    Tend to agree that Palace should get top half if they have a half decent window but could never bet on it and it would be the first time in their 11years of PL footy this time around.

    Bournemouth got bought last season and chucked a load of cash at it. If their owner goes again then they may be fine.  The promoted 3 will all struggle big time I reckon.

  • Despite backing Charlton for top half and winning it was too close for comfort.
    This year I'm holding off until I see what our squad is and not what I'm expecting it to be.
  • Championship: Southampton - Think they’ve got a championship team and would expect likes of Aribo and Armstrongs etc to show their class at this level. Martin is a good manager IMO.

    League 1: Bolton - Feels like next step is promotion. 

    League 2; Not Wrexham. Every game against them will be a cup final. 4/11 for top 7 is printing money. Can’t imagine any scenario when they finish 8th or lower. MK were 4th favs for league 1 last season and now 7th in league 2. Will keep an eye on them. 

    That League 2 is ridiculous everyone of top 8 should be favourites in different seasons.
  • Last season I had Burnley to finish top of north west division at 6/4. Think it was 5 other teams, both Wigan and Blackpool went down. 

    Remember telling all my mates that was best bet of the season and had to go in everyone ante post bets.
  • Just got a £2 free bet so went for Man City win PL, Luton bottom, Leeds top 6, Derby promoted, Barnsley top 6, Wrexham winners, Gills top 7, Man UTD top 6.  
    £2 of bookies money. Returns £3,885 (realistically £0 when it does win though!)
  • Fancy wolves to be relegated at 5s as an outside punt.  Arguably sold their best player and have been on a downward trajectory for a few seasons now.  Might be one of those sides who get a low amount of points and survives due to there being three worst teams. 
  • edited June 2023
    Prices are out for national league division with Chesterfield big favourites. Just wondering whether anyone has heard any positive thing regarding the other 23 clubs? For example, are Ebsfleet/ Bromley expecting to battle for promotion etc.
  • Prices are out for national league division with Chesterfield big favourites. Just wondering whether anyone has heard any positive thing regarding the other 23 clubs? For example, are Ebsfleet/ Bromley expecting to battle for promotion etc.
    Southend have been taken over I think, you can get 11/10 for a top 7 finish for them.  My NL Knowledge not too strong though but that price looks decent.
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  • Wigan 6/4 to finish in the top half and 7/1 to finish in the top six
  • Prices are out for national league division with Chesterfield big favourites. Just wondering whether anyone has heard any positive thing regarding the other 23 clubs? For example, are Ebsfleet/ Bromley expecting to battle for promotion etc.

    Chesterfield have bought in Will Grigg and we're linked to Jephcott.  Assuming they are the conference money bags this season..
    Bromley have lost a couple of their better players to Norwich and Sutton and I suspect their season will depend on whom they can bring in on freebies and loans (from likes of us and Palace).. wouldn't surprise me to see the likes of Anderson, Adigun and if they sign Casey/Kone/Laqueretabua go out on loan, maybe even Kanu so they may pick up one or two of them.
  • Getting pretty anxious about getting an outright on for the season before the odds I like change.  Currently at this with skybet:

    Burnley highest promoted team 4/7
    Ipswich top half finish 4/9
    Bolton top 6 finish 1/1
    Gillingham top 7 finish 1/1

    Roughly 17/2.  Think the Bolton price will move quite a bit what with Barnsley and Reading having wobbles off the field.  Also think Gillingham price will do the same once they sign a striker.  
  • Bobs lot offering £10 of bet credits if you put a pre-match bet on England women's game against Haiti tomorrow at odds of at least 1.20. I've gone for England to score more than 3.5 goals at 1.40, though my betting on this tournament so far has been a total washout so far.
  • I've posted this on the transfer thread because someone mentioned our price to win League 1, but some bookies, as a result of our recruitment policy, are starting to cut our odds.

    Current options are, to a win stake of £20 or £10 EW (and including that in the return):

    (1) Win only at 16/1 with Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred for a £340 return

    (2) EW at 16/1, first 3, with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred returns at 1/4 the odds a place, £220 if we win or £50 if we finish 2nd or 3rd

    (3) EW at 16/1, first 4, with Skybet returns at 1/5 the odds a place, £212 if we win or £42 if we finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th  

    (4) Top 2 finish at 8/1 with Skybet and BetVictor, returns £180

    (5) Top 6 finish with Bet365 and William Hill @ 2/1, a £60 return

    Prices correct and best available at the time of posting. Some bookies, depending on their Traders' opinion, will stand their ground despite any meaningful interest whereas others will run scared at the sight of a fiver. Ladbrokes have got wind of our recruitment policy and yesterday significantly cut their prices across the board e.g. they are now 7/2 for promotion as opposed to the 5/1 they were prior to yesterday

    Good luck everyone! 
  • Something worth looking at if you want a charlton punt.  We are 18/1 with a +11 handicap with 365.  That’s where I’ll be having a punt on us.
  • Something worth looking at if you want a charlton punt.  We are 18/1 with a +11 handicap with 365.  That’s where I’ll be having a punt on us.
    I've gone on that.  That is decent!
  • Something worth looking at if you want a charlton punt.  We are 18/1 with a +11 handicap with 365.  That’s where I’ll be having a punt on us.
    Really like that. 18/1 is very strong with the +11 handicap.

    Thank you @BR7_addick & @bobmunro

    Above price is definitely attractive in light of Skybet reducing odds for Charlton to win the league today (from 16/1 to 14/1).

    Up the addicks!
  • Be nice to get a bet on.
    Skybet the latest today to tell me I'm no longer eligible for promotional bets.

  • I’ve had other handicap bets as well as charlton.

    Premier league:
    Fulham +46
    Burnley +48
    Palarse +42

    Brentford won it last season for the Prem and I think due to the sheer amount of teams in Europe and the fact there’s a few very weak sides this year I think it’ll go to one of the “best of the rest” type teams again.  The above three really stood out points wise.

    Championship:
    Sunderland +18
    Ipswich +12

    Lot of pundits fancying Sunderland and strongly feel that Ipswich will keep the momentum going.

    League one:
    Bolton +4

    Between them and Derby to win the league IMO and derby start on +0 so not worth it.
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  • clb74 said:
    Be nice to get a bet on.
    Skybet the latest today to tell me I'm no longer eligible for promotional bets.

    Us to get promoted / win the league is a standard outright bet not a price boost promo.

    Anyone with an account should be able to back it.
  • clb74 said:
    Be nice to get a bet on.
    Skybet the latest today to tell me I'm no longer eligible for promotional bets.

    I got that a few weeks ago.
  • supaclive said:
    Something worth looking at if you want a charlton punt.  We are 18/1 with a +11 handicap with 365.  That’s where I’ll be having a punt on us.
    I've gone on that.  That is decent!
    Am I missing something? Is that Charlton to win the league at +11 points handicap? How is it so much longer than straight win everywhere else?
  • On the handicap thing is is you just add thr points to Charlton's total and if higher than first place you win ?

    Or is it every team has their handicap points added and then there is just one winner?
  • edited July 2023
    CAFCsayer said:
    supaclive said:
    Something worth looking at if you want a charlton punt.  We are 18/1 with a +11 handicap with 365.  That’s where I’ll be having a punt on us.
    I've gone on that.  That is decent!
    Am I missing something? Is that Charlton to win the league at +11 points handicap? How is it so much longer than straight win everywhere else?
    MrOneLung said:
    On the handicap thing is is you just add thr points to Charlton's total and if higher than first place you win ?

    Or is it every team has their handicap points added and then there is just one winner?
    Every team gets a certain number of points - the team that wins is the one with the most actual points added to their handicap points. So, for example, if say Portsmouth get 15 points against scratch and we beat Portsmouth in the League by 3 points they would finish above us by 1 point. 
  • Gotcha
  • edited July 2023
    CAFCsayer said:
    supaclive said:
    Something worth looking at if you want a charlton punt.  We are 18/1 with a +11 handicap with 365.  That’s where I’ll be having a punt on us.
    I've gone on that.  That is decent!
    Am I missing something? Is that Charlton to win the league at +11 points handicap? How is it so much longer than straight win everywhere else?
    MrOneLung said:
    On the handicap thing is is you just add thr points to Charlton's total and if higher than first place you win ?

    Or is it every team has their handicap points added and then there is just one winner?
    Every team gets a certain number of points - the team that wins is the one with the most actual points added to their handicap points. So, for example, if say Portsmouth get 15 points against scratch and we beat Portsmouth in the League by 3 points they would finish above us by 1 point. 
    Carlisle have a handicap of +30 Cheltenham +29
    so prior to kick off of the first game of season Carlisle are top with 30 points an Cheltenham 2nd with 29. Charlton are 17th with 11 points. Derby are bottom with none. As each game passes we all move up or down. We need to get 20 points ahead of Carlisle to pass them in the handicap. Or more likely finish less than 10 points behind Derby to win the handicap.

    In bookies opinion, technically a handicap should see all 24 teams in the league finish equal when the handicap it taken into account. This is why Derby the favourites are 18/1 and rank outsiders Carlisle are also 18/1. 

    As Plymouth were not that fancied last season I assume not only did they win the league outright, but also won the handicap.
  • CAFCsayer said:
    supaclive said:
    Something worth looking at if you want a charlton punt.  We are 18/1 with a +11 handicap with 365.  That’s where I’ll be having a punt on us.
    I've gone on that.  That is decent!
    Am I missing something? Is that Charlton to win the league at +11 points handicap? How is it so much longer than straight win everywhere else?
    MrOneLung said:
    On the handicap thing is is you just add thr points to Charlton's total and if higher than first place you win ?

    Or is it every team has their handicap points added and then there is just one winner?
    Every team gets a certain number of points - the team that wins is the one with the most actual points added to their handicap points. So, for example, if say Portsmouth get 15 points against scratch and we beat Portsmouth in the League by 3 points they would finish above us by 1 point. 
    Carlisle have a handicap of +30 Cheltenham +29
    so prior to kick off of the first game of season Carlisle are top with 30 points an Cheltenham 2nd with 29. Charlton are 17th with 11 points. Derby are bottom with none. As each game passes we all move up or down. We need to get 20 points ahead of Carlisle to pass them in the handicap. Or more likely finish less than 10 points behind Derby to win the handicap.

    In bookies opinion, technically a handicap should see all 24 teams in the league finish equal when the handicap it taken into account. This is why Derby the favourites are 18/1 and rank outsiders Carlisle are also 18/1. 

    As Plymouth were not that fancied last season I assume not only did they win the league outright, but also won the handicap.
    They did although they were "only" plus 15 themselves. If one went back 20 years or so, very few of the fancied teams won the handicap because the lesser sides were in receipt of far more points than they are nowadays. Over time, the handicap points allocated generally have become far more compressed meaning that an outsider has to have a relatively good season to win and a fancied side not so much. 
  • clb74 said:
    Be nice to get a bet on.
    Skybet the latest today to tell me I'm no longer eligible for promotional bets.

    Us to get promoted / win the league is a standard outright bet not a price boost promo.

    Anyone with an account should be able to back it.
    Sorry Eddie was just having a moan up.
    These firms offer all these promotions and free bets.
    You take them up on the offers , have a 10/1 winner on a free £10 bet and they get the hump.
  • With the handicap, make a note of each teams points before the season starts because after that you can’t see them.  

    And also you can keep track of how it’s doing.  
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