Looking at the going, 2 of my bets so far are probably carrying far too much weight, Coko Beach and Noble Yeats, as good as they might be .. anything carrying anywhere near 11st is unlikely to last the course I reckon .. whadya say Peanuts ?
Yeap, as @BIG_ROB says. Don't get me wrong, if it doesn't have the credentials, a big weight will certainly stop a runner on any ground. But runners whose CV otherwise gives them a shout, can defy big weights particularly on Soft~Hvy ground, or more to the point slow ground.
Getting specific:
1998 Heavy - only 3 of the 37 runners carried 11.00+: Topweight with 12.00 (Suny Bay - 2nd previous year) came 11L 2nd (6 finished) 2006 Soft - 7 of 40: Topweight with 11.12 (Hedgehunter - winner previous year) came 6L 2nd (9 finished) 2018 Heavy - 10 of 38: Anibale Fly (staying on 4th 11L with 11.08, having just run a blinder in the GC). Yes a heavy representation but, other than also The Last Samuri who was spooked beforehand in the paddock, IMHO none of those with 11.00+ had even the feintest of chances on their records.
TBH I fancy Coko to have his best chance of making the frame on the likely ground, despite his career-high mark and big weight. Biggest problem may be his jockey restraining his enthusiasm to save gas. If you fancy him and Noble Yeats (topweights who've previously gone well can go well again on this ground), don't be put off.
Peanuts, just out of interest, how to do you do this modelling? Are you using a massive spreadsheet... or are you a paper and pen/pencil old school kind?
I know next to nothing about horse racing (even less than that if its possible) but always enjoy this thread. Your effort on this is something else.
Peanuts, just out of interest, how to do you do this modelling? Are you using a massive spreadsheet... or are you a paper and pen/pencil old school kind?
I know next to nothing about horse racing (even less than that if its possible) but always enjoy this thread. Your effort on this is something else.
What are your thoughts on the plunge for Meetingofthewaters Peanuts?
I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw last night he's now third fave at 8's, I swear when I looked beginning of the week it was more 16s 18s.
Especially when he didn't look to stay in the Ultima, another mile on even worse ground? Hmm.
Unless JP has his money down....
JP's already got his money down having bought him, I'm sure for a pretty penny, but that's never stopped him taking on the bookies as well when he reckons he's got a good thing. I agree with you. My model doesn't rate his pedigree as that of a likely 34f winner. His stats are OK but I don't think the form of that Paddy Power looks too good and he's up 17lbs for that. Panda Boy has a nice pull at the weights with him. His current price only makes sense to me if he'd won that Ultima off his GN mark. Instead the guy that rode him has opted for Limerick lace. Says it all as far as I'm concerned.
Famous last words.
Gonna take the dog for a walk. Back before the racing kicks off.
small stakes today as ground could knacker everything.
but gone with
1.45 il etait temps - 1st 3/1 2.20 kalif du berlais - lost 2.55 corbetts cross - lost 3.30 bob olinger - should of won but we cant upset willie mullins, cheating cnut 4.05 cap du mathun ew - lost captain tommy ew - lost 4.40 dancing on my own ew path d'roux ew 5.15 diva luna
Peanuts thanks for this thread as every - i've just finished my final analysis of the field and have a short list of five of: I am Maximus, Vanillier, Delta Work, Mahler Mission and Latenightpass. By my reckoning the value at current prices is Delta Work was going okay last year when unseating previously placed. Has solid class form. Now off his lowest mark in a grand national and through a quirk of a cancellation for the first time a fresh horse in the spring. Plus has Jack on board.
This is my potential winnings on Betfair if any of them win. I had intended to trade out on a few but i think i might just leave it or maybe put in an offer of 4/1 all of them in running and see how many get matched. Probably best to just leave it and hope for the best. If i can get a decent price i might have a bet on a low number of finishers. Everything seems to have been very slow this year with a general lack of interest.
Bartlett couldn't have made it clearer earlier this week that he wouldn't run both unless there is 'good' in the going. Which 99% it won't be. And with no reserves and an already cut field, its absolutely ridiculous.
@Lincsaddick - I think Peanuts covered this a few posts ago saying that carrying more weight in testing conditions is actually of benefit rather than deficit.
Run on the Mildmay and not the national course but that first race visually did not look like it was run on soft/heavy going!
Run 14 seconds slower than last year
They went a pretty sedate pace which wouldn't have helped that. If they get some drying weather I can't see it being as attritional as feared for the big one Saturday
Peanuts thanks for this thread as every - i've just finished my final analysis of the field and have a short list of five of: I am Maximus, Vanillier, Delta Work, Mahler Mission and Latenightpass. By my reckoning the value at current prices is Delta Work was going okay last year when unseating previously placed. Has solid class form. Now off his lowest mark in a grand national and through a quirk of a cancellation for the first time a fresh horse in the spring. Plus has Jack on board.
Good luck one and all.
Fell in love with Delta Work when he beat Tiger in the rain, so won't be able to resist a last GN punt on my favourite horse!
Thanks for the thread, Peanuts - great read whatever the result! Quick question on how you find your Top 10 bets? Quite easy shopping around on Oddschecker for the usual E/Ws
Thanks for the thread, Peanuts - great read whatever the result! Quick question on how you find your Top 10 bets? Quite easy shopping around on Oddschecker for the usual E/Ws
Second and last part of my GN 2024 wrap - how, in light of my own risk-reward target, I've translated my model's ratings, my views of runners' required ground and the possibility of an attritional GN, to my betting slip. It's definitely the funkiest I've ever had for a National:
Barring an irresistible offer from Bob or a material drying out (in which case, all the Attritional bets will be cashed out and Kitty's Light will put back), these are my final bets, odds-weighted - model's picks (all e/w are 5 places) are:
I Am Maximus - e/w 25/1
Mr Incredible - e/w 33/1 (outsized)
Limerick Lace - e/w 25/1
Galia Des Liteaux - e/w 50/1 (additional Top 5 Finish at 11.00)
Roi Mage - modest win 80/1, outsized Top 5 at 13.00, Top 10 at 6.00
Glengouly e/w 50/1 - such is the poor form of January's Thyestes (and indeed so poor has the GN pointer been for Thyestes' winners/near-missers in modern GNs) that I considered cashing out but have decided to keep him - I'm sceptical but will keep faith with my model
Farouk D'alene modest e/w at 125/1, Top 10 at 6.00
Attritional ground bets - doubles' perms and a treble with: Delta Work, Nassalam & Coko Beach
Coko Beach & Nassalam Top 10 at 12.00 / Coko Beach & Delta Work Top 10 at 12.00 / Nassalam & Delta Work Top 10 at 9.00
Delta Work & Nassalam Top 5 at 37.50
Nassalam & Delta Work & Coko Beach Top 5 at 337.50
Interests in 10 horses and, on paper, all 10 could generate a profit in the race. Of course it won't happen but my optimum result would be:
Win: Mr Incredible 2~5: I Am Maximus, Limerick Lace, Galia Des Liteaux, Glengouly 6~10: Roi Mage, Farouk D'alene, Delta Work, Nassalam, Coko Beach
In the (obviously) highly improbable event of that happening, my return would be c 500%
That sounds a bit skinny for a utopian outcome BUT I'm not using my model to shoot for the moon, betting-wise. My betting strategy is more like that of a portfolio (more specifically a hedge fund portfolio, for fellow City ne'er-do-wells), where of course there is the risk of 100% loss of capital, but there are various routes to breakeven and a nice return of anything up to that maximum.
My aim is the same year-to-year, and it's to limit the downside but establish workable means to make a nice, if not stellar, profit. After all the work I put it, naturally, I tend to bet fairly meaty sums to make it worthwhile and will always be more than happy with a 50~100% profit. Since I first used it in 2006, my model's helped deliver a profit of some quantum in most years - a few misses but thankfully never a total loss.
This year, naturally, any of the top 7 as a winner alone will satisfy my basic profit target, regardless of the fate of others.
But if I don't find the winner, I breakeven and make a modest profit (of varying degree) if, alone, any of the following occur:
Galia Des Liteaux places first 5
Roi Mage places first 5
Roi Mage finishes Top 10 AND any other of top 7 selections places first 5
Roi Mage AND Farouk D'alene both finish Top 10
Any 2 of Delta Work, Nassalam & Coko Beach finish Top 5
Any 2 of Delta Work, Nassalam & Coko Beach finish Top 10 AND Roi Mage also finishes Top 10
Any 2 of Delta Work, Nassalam & Coko Beach finish Top 10 AND Mr Incredible places first 5
Fingers crossed.
I'll have to make a mad scramble to unload these Attritional Bets and restore Kittys if the ground rides materially better tomorrow and the forecast remains dry.
Comments
But runners whose CV otherwise gives them a shout, can defy big weights particularly on Soft~Hvy ground, or more to the point slow ground.
Getting specific:
1998 Heavy - only 3 of the 37 runners carried 11.00+: Topweight with 12.00 (Suny Bay - 2nd previous year) came 11L 2nd (6 finished)
2006 Soft - 7 of 40: Topweight with 11.12 (Hedgehunter - winner previous year) came 6L 2nd (9 finished)
2018 Heavy - 10 of 38: Anibale Fly (staying on 4th 11L with 11.08, having just run a blinder in the GC). Yes a heavy representation but, other than also The Last Samuri who was spooked beforehand in the paddock, IMHO none of those with 11.00+ had even the feintest of chances on their records.
TBH I fancy Coko to have his best chance of making the frame on the likely ground, despite his career-high mark and big weight. Biggest problem may be his jockey restraining his enthusiasm to save gas.
If you fancy him and Noble Yeats (topweights who've previously gone well can go well again on this ground), don't be put off.
Are you using a massive spreadsheet... or are you a paper and pen/pencil old school kind?
I know next to nothing about horse racing (even less than that if its possible) but always enjoy this thread. Your effort on this is something else.
It's a bit of both tbh.
I've got one humongous spreadsheet - getting bigger every year!
14.55 - Gerri Colombe 2/1
15.30 - Bob Olinger 9/4
16.05 - Its On the Line 4/1
16.40 - Heltenham 8/1
Done as doubles and a 4 four fold.
I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw last night he's now third fave at 8's, I swear when I looked beginning of the week it was more 16s 18s.
Especially when he didn't look to stay in the Ultima, another mile on even worse ground? Hmm.
Unless JP has his money down....
I agree with you.
My model doesn't rate his pedigree as that of a likely 34f winner.
His stats are OK but I don't think the form of that Paddy Power looks too good and he's up 17lbs for that. Panda Boy has a nice pull at the weights with him.
His current price only makes sense to me if he'd won that Ultima off his GN mark. Instead the guy that rode him has opted for Limerick lace.
Says it all as far as I'm concerned.
Famous last words.
Gonna take the dog for a walk. Back before the racing kicks off.
2.20 Kargese
2.55 Shishkin
3.30 Bob Olinger
4.05 Time Leader
4.40 unexpected Party
5.15 baby Kate
good luck guys
but gone with
1.45 il etait temps - 1st 3/1
2.20 kalif du berlais - lost
2.55 corbetts cross - lost
3.30 bob olinger - should of won but we cant upset willie mullins, cheating cnut
4.05 cap du mathun ew - lost
captain tommy ew - lost
4.40 dancing on my own ew
path d'roux ew
5.15 diva luna
I am Maximus, Vanillier, Delta Work, Mahler Mission and Latenightpass.
By my reckoning the value at current prices is Delta Work was going okay last year when unseating previously placed.
Has solid class form.
Now off his lowest mark in a grand national and through a quirk of a cancellation for the first time a fresh horse in the spring.
Plus has Jack on board.
Good luck one and all.
thank you for one of the most popular threads every year.
can you do a “latecomers” summary so I can have a bet for Saturday please.
Cheers @Oh_Yoni_Boy
Bet365 - Specials: Top 5, Top 10 lots more.
Putting a stopwatch on the Foxhunters.
Barring an irresistible offer from Bob or a material drying out (in which case, all the Attritional bets will be cashed out and Kitty's Light will put back), these are my final bets, odds-weighted - model's picks (all e/w are 5 places) are:
- Farouk D'alene modest e/w at 125/1, Top 10 at 6.00
Attritional ground bets - doubles' perms and a treble with: Delta Work, Nassalam & Coko BeachInterests in 10 horses and, on paper, all 10 could generate a profit in the race. Of course it won't happen but my optimum result would be:
Win: Mr Incredible
2~5: I Am Maximus, Limerick Lace, Galia Des Liteaux, Glengouly
6~10: Roi Mage, Farouk D'alene, Delta Work, Nassalam, Coko Beach
In the (obviously) highly improbable event of that happening, my return would be c 500%
That sounds a bit skinny for a utopian outcome BUT I'm not using my model to shoot for the moon, betting-wise.
My betting strategy is more like that of a portfolio (more specifically a hedge fund portfolio, for fellow City ne'er-do-wells), where of course there is the risk of 100% loss of capital, but there are various routes to breakeven and a nice return of anything up to that maximum.
My aim is the same year-to-year, and it's to limit the downside but establish workable means to make a nice, if not stellar, profit. After all the work I put it, naturally, I tend to bet fairly meaty sums to make it worthwhile and will always be more than happy with a 50~100% profit. Since I first used it in 2006, my model's helped deliver a profit of some quantum in most years - a few misses but thankfully never a total loss.
This year, naturally, any of the top 7 as a winner alone will satisfy my basic profit target, regardless of the fate of others.
But if I don't find the winner, I breakeven and make a modest profit (of varying degree) if, alone, any of the following occur:
Fingers crossed.
I'll have to make a mad scramble to unload these Attritional Bets and restore Kittys if the ground rides materially better tomorrow and the forecast remains dry.
But interference with the 3rd? Looks like it to me.
I would expect not much less than 6 mins, probably more, if it's as deep as they say.