These are my model's top 8 rated runners. At current prices and given their varying strengths and weaknesses, this not necessarily the order in which I would place e/w bets. That is below.
Top Ratings - best winning potential:
I Am Maximus 7/1 (the softer the ground the better)
Mr Incredible 12/1
Kittys Light 14/1 (the better the ground the better)
Next Best:
Limerick Lace 25/1
Galia Des Liteaux 33/1
Glengouly 66/1
Roi Mage 50/1
Vanillier 8/1
If I Am Maximus handles the fences without falling too far behind, he has shed loads of stamina and should be there or thereabouts. BUT he does have a jumping vulnerability and at 7/1 is lousy value IMO. Nonetheless, he is my model's #1 selection.
As for e/w betting propositions, if I were picking 3, I would definitely have Mr Incredible e/w at 12/1 (I have an outsized bet on him at 33s - you should have asked earlier!!). He has loads of stamina (close 2nd over 4m in heavy last run) and was going nicely last GN when his saddle slipped in between fences and the jockey came off. That was on GS ground and this year it won't be any quicker than that so he'll be fine whatever the ground. He is a little quirky however. Will carry a very winnable-with 10.10. The standout value e/w bet IMO is Roi Mage at 50/1. A 12 yo but last 2 GNs on Soft and Heavy had a 13 yo come 3rd each time (were you on Vics Canvas in 2016? You would have been if you'd followed my model that year). Roi Mage jumped round beautifully last GN to be 7th (14L behind Corach Rambler, who is up 13lbs in the handicap - Roi Mage's mark is unchanged and he'll carry 10.07) on quicker ground than is likely on Saturday and he has a great chance of making the frame IMO. The third would be a toss up between Kitty's Light 14/1 who has a great chance of winning with 10.06 on his back IF the ground dries up to be Good-to-Soft (if it does, I'd want to have him on my betting slip), and Limerick Lace 25/1, a 7yo mare who is as tough as nails, was a strong finishing 2nd in a race in the autumn which has great form (winner ran great next time off 9lbs higher handicap mark - she is up 6lbs but will carry only 10.07), and is unexposed over a long trip. A mare hasn't won it since 1951 but Magic Of Light came mighty close (close 2nd to Tiger Roll) in 2019. She has a very similar sort of CV to the likes of Minella Times and Noble Yeats who won it in 2021 and 2022.
PS Don't be seduced by the price, I wouldn't recommend Glengouly even at 66/1 if I was only backing 3. The form of the race that underpins his stats hasn't worked out well ....... famous last words.
Never fear. Like Malina Girl, he was and still is borderline Place Potential and very much on my betting slip but, like her, he does want it with juice to get him into a rhythm without falling behind. He wouldn't make a 3-man team and try explaining Top5 and Top 10 Finish to Henry. ...... Wall, Head, Brick, Banging (arrange in correct order) Will be posting the full list shortly.
Nonetheless, good point. @Henry Irving If you want one that could be a jaw-dropper, impress your friends ("My God you're some sort of genius Henners"), Mon Mome sort of winner, have a nibble of FAROUK D'ALENE 66/1. His price may well get larger as we get to Saturday because very few will rate his chances. He could come a cropper and go at the first (punters have written him off because of 2 Falls in his last 3 chases) but he has some class and if he negotiates the first circuit still in touch - slower ground should help him do so - he could be provide a shock or a nice little earner with a place.
These are my model's top 8 rated runners. At current prices and given their varying strengths and weaknesses, this not necessarily the order in which I would place e/w bets. That is below.
Top Ratings - best winning potential:
I Am Maximus 7/1 (the softer the ground the better)
Mr Incredible 12/1
Kittys Light 14/1 (the better the ground the better)
Next Best:
Limerick Lace 25/1
Galia Des Liteaux 33/1
Glengouly 66/1
Roi Mage 50/1
Vanillier 8/1
If I Am Maximus handles the fences without falling too far behind, he has shed loads of stamina and should be there or thereabouts. BUT he does have a jumping vulnerability and at 7/1 is lousy value IMO. Nonetheless, he is my model's #1 selection.
As for e/w betting propositions, if I were picking 3, I would definitely have Mr Incredible e/w at 12/1 (I have an outsized bet on him at 33s - you should have asked earlier!!). He has loads of stamina (close 2nd over 4m in heavy last run) and was going nicely last GN when his saddle slipped in between fences and the jockey came off. That was on GS ground and this year it won't be any quicker than that so he'll be fine whatever the ground. He is a little quirky however. Will carry a very winnable-with 10.10. The standout value e/w bet IMO is Roi Mage at 50/1. A 12 yo but last 2 GNs on Soft and Heavy had a 13 yo come 3rd each time (were you on Vics Canvas in 2016? You would have been if you'd followed my model that year). Roi Mage jumped round beautifully last GN to be 7th (14L behind Corach Rambler, who is up 13lbs in the handicap - Roi Mage's mark is unchanged and he'll carry 10.07) on quicker ground than is likely on Saturday and he has a great chance of making the frame IMO. The third would be a toss up between Kitty's Light 14/1 who has a great chance of winning with 10.06 on his back IF the ground dries up to be Good-to-Soft (if it does, I'd want to have him on my betting slip), and Limerick Lace 25/1, a 7yo mare who is as tough as nails, was a strong finishing 2nd in a race in the autumn which has great form (winner ran great next time off 9lbs higher handicap mark - she is up 6lbs but will carry only 10.07), and is unexposed over a long trip. A mare hasn't won it since 1951 but Magic Of Light came mighty close (close 2nd to Tiger Roll) in 2019. She has a very similar sort of CV to the likes of Minella Times and Noble Yeats who won it in 2021 and 2022.
PS Don't be seduced by the price, I wouldn't recommend Glengouly even at 66/1 if I was only backing 3. The form of the race that underpins his stats hasn't worked out well ....... famous last words.
Bon chance.
Thanks @PeanutsMolloy - before I place any bet would also be helpful to know who @AFKABartram is betting on so I can avoid them. Perfect winning formula. 🤣
Never fear. Like Malina Girl, he was and still is borderline Place Potential and very much on my betting slip but, like her, he does want it with juice to get him into a rhythm without falling behind. He wouldn't make a 3-man team and try explaining Top5 and Top 10 Finish to Henry. ...... Wall, Head, Brick, Banging (arrange in correct order) Will be posting the full list shortly.
Nonetheless, good point. @Henry Irving If you want one that could be a jaw-dropper, impress your friends ("My God you're some sort of genius Henners"), Mon Mome sort of winner, have a nibble of FAROUK D'ALENE 66/1. His price may well get larger as we get to Saturday because very few will rate his chances. He could come a cropper and go at the first (punters have written him off because of 2 Falls in
his last 3 chases) but he has some class and if he negotiates the first circuit still in touch - slower ground should help him do so - he could be provide a shock or a nice little earner with a place.
NB Make sure you get 6 places!!
Cheers G.
Doesn't everyone who's met me think I'm some sort of genius?
Never fear. Like Malina Girl, he was and still is borderline Place Potential and very much on my betting slip but, like her, he does want it with juice to get him into a rhythm without falling behind. He wouldn't make a 3-man team and try explaining Top5 and Top 10 Finish to Henry. ...... Wall, Head, Brick, Banging (arrange in correct order) Will be posting the full list shortly.
Nonetheless, good point. @Henry Irving If you want one that could be a jaw-dropper, impress your friends ("My God you're some sort of genius Henners"), Mon Mome sort of winner, have a nibble of FAROUK D'ALENE 66/1. His price may well get larger as we get to Saturday because very few will rate his chances. He could come a cropper and go at the first (punters have written him off because of 2 Falls in
his last 3 chases) but he has some class and if he negotiates the first circuit still in touch - slower ground should help him do so - he could be provide a shock or a nice little earner with a place.
NB Make sure you get 6 places!!
Cheers G.
Doesn't everyone who's met me think I'm some sort of genius?
Weather report from Liverpool is that the rain yesterday evening was heavy and this morning is "biblical". Absolutely lashing down.
Report from Aintree at 8.30am this morning is that Heavy has extended to before Bechers (6th) and still goes to 12th. Heavy now for about 1/4 of the hurdles course and 1/6 of the Mildmay course.
Could be all round heavy by lunchtime I reckon.
They'd better get those 3 dry days during the meeting because otherwise it could truly be a mudbath. Still could be for Day 1. If so, everyone will want the fresh ground on the inner come Saturday.
Sounds like Conflated will run in the Bowl. If he's scratched at Thursday's GN decs, weights go up 1lb and all 3 of Eklat de Rire, Chambard and Kitty's Light will definitely make the cut. Malina Girl would need 1 more to defect to do so (remember Galvin and Stattler won't run unless the going starts with GS). Chemical Energy wants decent ground and Eldorado Allen has breathing issues. She's likely to make the 34 I think.
Unsurprisingly Delta Work attracting interest at 25/1. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him in light of probable conditions and if he were more like 50s I'd consider doing so myself. But his form this season, on going that should have suited, has not been great. Moreover, while he was one of my model's top 3 picks and was an unfortunate UR last year, I didn't think he looked great travelling last year - like he was one of those unsettled by the pre-race mayhem. He was involved in the multi-horse collision that ended with The Big Breakaway being the filling in the sandwich at the 2nd and just didn't look convincing thereafter. Seems to have put The Big Breakaway off the game altogether. Mental scars can remain and resurface with GN runners, even those that had previously run well over the fences and might do so again without the ballyhoo of a GN (e.g The Last Samuri). So he's not for me.
Sounds like Conflated will run in the Bowl. If he's scratched at Thursday's GN decs, weights go up 1lb and all 3 of Eklat de Rire, Chambard and Kitty's Light will definitely make the cut. Malina Girl would need 1 more to defect to do so (remember Galvin and Stattler won't run unless the going starts with GS). Chemical Energy wants decent ground and Eldorado Allen has breathing issues. She's likely to make the 34 I think.
Enough is enough. However dry it is for the rest of the week, it cannot possibly be decent enough for Kitty's Light come Saturday. His poor stats on Soft or worse (and collectively those of the rest of the progeny of his sire Nathaniel) were set out previously
I've cashed out.
Has to be a doubt about Thursday's races happening at all.
Galia Des Liteaux (best 33s 6 places but only with Coral, generally 25s and getting support) is still 10/1 to finish Top 5 with Bet365. I backed her at 50s e/w 5 places a while back but have doubled my stake with a slice of the Top 5 Finish.
Have they confirmed Rachael will ride Minella Indo yet?
Yes, it was in a Telegraph piece this morning.
Great. Hopefully the price will start dropping and i can trade out. This has taken ages. I was waiting for it to drop to 16/1 but i will let it go at 20/1
Have they confirmed Rachael will ride Minella Indo yet?
Yes, it was in a Telegraph piece this morning.
Great. Hopefully the price will start dropping and i can trade out. This has taken ages. I was waiting for it to drop to 16/1 but i will let it go at 20/1
Not the Bowl but Friday's Melling Chase will be Conflated's race, according to Elliott on ATR. So , assuming he's scratched in Thursday's GN decs, the weights will rise 1lb and all 3 of Eklat De Rire, Chambard and Kittys Light will be guaranteed a run. Next up, Malina girl. ..... it's like deja vu all over again
PS I seem to have one funky-looking portfolio this year - will explain tomorrow
Official Going Update: After 9.2mm of Rain throughout the day today Tuesday the going has been changed to HEAVY, Soft in places on National Course GoingStick reading: 3.0
Mildmay Couse : SOFT, Heavy in places The track has had 40 mm in the last week , with a further 4-6 mm expected tomorrow
Forecasts now showing 70% chance of showers Thursday evening and night.
On Soft or Heavy my model’s top ratings are these (the same for either):
Winning Calibre
I Am Maximus 8/1
Mr Incredible 12/1
Next Best:
Limerick Lace 20/1
Best Place Potential:
Galia Des Liteaux 33/1
Roi Mage 66/1
Glengouly 66/1 - form of Thyestes in which he was close 2nd on heavy is poor but he is related to mudlark and Welsh GN winner Raz De Maree
At the prices, on Soft or Heavy I also like:
Malina Girl 66/1
Farouk D’alene 66/1 - has a touch of class at workable weight, punters put off by FF5 in last 3 chases but I think that fear is overdone (see previous write up); loves testing ground - his record on Sft/Hvy or Hvy is: 121211F
Comments
So it now looks as follows:
#33 Eklat De Rire / Chambard / Kitty's Light
#36 Malina Girl
#37 Desertmore House / Kinondo Kwetu
#39 Shakem Up'Arry
These are my model's top 8 rated runners. At current prices and given their varying strengths and weaknesses, this not necessarily the order in which I would place e/w bets. That is below.
Top Ratings - best winning potential:
- I Am Maximus 7/1 (the softer the ground the better)
- Mr Incredible 12/1
- Kittys Light 14/1 (the better the ground the better)
Next Best:If I Am Maximus handles the fences without falling too far behind, he has shed loads of stamina and should be there or thereabouts. BUT he does have a jumping vulnerability and at 7/1 is lousy value IMO. Nonetheless, he is my model's #1 selection.
As for e/w betting propositions, if I were picking 3, I would definitely have Mr Incredible e/w at 12/1 (I have an outsized bet on him at 33s - you should have asked earlier!!). He has loads of stamina (close 2nd over 4m in heavy last run) and was going nicely last GN when his saddle slipped in between fences and the jockey came off. That was on GS ground and this year it won't be any quicker than that so he'll be fine whatever the ground. He is a little quirky however. Will carry a very winnable-with 10.10.
The standout value e/w bet IMO is Roi Mage at 50/1. A 12 yo but last 2 GNs on Soft and Heavy had a 13 yo come 3rd each time (were you on Vics Canvas in 2016? You would have been if you'd followed my model that year). Roi Mage jumped round beautifully last GN to be 7th (14L behind Corach Rambler, who is up 13lbs in the handicap - Roi Mage's mark is unchanged and he'll carry 10.07) on quicker ground than is likely on Saturday and he has a great chance of making the frame IMO.
The third would be a toss up between Kitty's Light 14/1 who has a great chance of winning with 10.06 on his back IF the ground dries up to be Good-to-Soft (if it does, I'd want to have him on my betting slip), and Limerick Lace 25/1, a 7yo mare who is as tough as nails, was a strong finishing 2nd in a race in the autumn which has great form (winner ran great next time off 9lbs higher handicap mark - she is up 6lbs but will carry only 10.07), and is unexposed over a long trip. A mare hasn't won it since 1951 but Magic Of Light came mighty close (close 2nd to Tiger Roll) in 2019. She has a very similar sort of CV to the likes of Minella Times and Noble Yeats who won it in 2021 and 2022.
PS Don't be seduced by the price, I wouldn't recommend Glengouly even at 66/1 if I was only backing 3. The form of the race that underpins his stats hasn't worked out well ....... famous last words.
Bon chance.
FAROUK D'ALENE (66/1, 100s on Betfair)
He wouldn't make a 3-man team and try explaining Top5 and Top 10 Finish to Henry. ...... Wall, Head, Brick, Banging (arrange in correct order)
Will be posting the full list shortly.
Nonetheless, good point.
@Henry Irving
If you want one that could be a jaw-dropper, impress your friends ("My God you're some sort of genius Henners"), Mon Mome sort of winner, have a nibble of FAROUK D'ALENE 66/1.
His price may well get larger as we get to Saturday because very few will rate his chances.
He could come a cropper and go at the first (punters have written him off because of 2 Falls in his last 3 chases) but he has some class and if he negotiates the first circuit still in touch - slower ground should help him do so - he could be provide a shock or a nice little earner with a place.
NB Make sure you get 6 places!!
Thanks @PeanutsMolloy - before I place any bet would also be helpful to know who @AFKABartram is betting on so I can avoid them.
Perfect winning formula.
🤣
EDIT: Cobden has ridden both Coko and Noble Yeats .. Coko in last year's GN when all went .. V Badly
Doesn't everyone who's met me think I'm some sort of genius?
Absolutely lashing down.
Report from Aintree at 8.30am this morning is that Heavy has extended to before Bechers (6th) and still goes to 12th.
Heavy now for about 1/4 of the hurdles course and 1/6 of the Mildmay course.
Could be all round heavy by lunchtime I reckon.
They'd better get those 3 dry days during the meeting because otherwise it could truly be a mudbath. Still could be for Day 1.
If so, everyone will want the fresh ground on the inner come Saturday.
Abandonment for the Foxhunters even?
If he's scratched at Thursday's GN decs, weights go up 1lb and all 3 of Eklat de Rire, Chambard and Kitty's Light will definitely make the cut.
Malina Girl would need 1 more to defect to do so (remember Galvin and Stattler won't run unless the going starts with GS).
Chemical Energy wants decent ground and Eldorado Allen has breathing issues.
She's likely to make the 34 I think.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing him in light of probable conditions and if he were more like 50s I'd consider doing so myself.
But his form this season, on going that should have suited, has not been great.
Moreover, while he was one of my model's top 3 picks and was an unfortunate UR last year, I didn't think he looked great travelling last year - like he was one of those unsettled by the pre-race mayhem. He was involved in the multi-horse collision that ended with The Big Breakaway being the filling in the sandwich at the 2nd and just didn't look convincing thereafter. Seems to have put The Big Breakaway off the game altogether.
Mental scars can remain and resurface with GN runners, even those that had previously run well over the fences and might do so again without the ballyhoo of a GN (e.g The Last Samuri).
So he's not for me.
So much for that rumour.
Conflated is scratched for the Bowl.
Going Stick reading for the National Course at 7.45 am today was 3.4
For the 2016 GN run on officially Soft (Heavy places), it was 4.7
The GoingStick produces readings on a scale of 0-15, where 0 is a bog and 15 is like a road.
Mersey Estuary from Liverpool and Wirral to Widnes Alerts
1 Active
Flood Alert
Start 08:03, Tuesday, 9 April
Source: UK Environment Agency
However dry it is for the rest of the week, it cannot possibly be decent enough for Kitty's Light come Saturday.
His poor stats on Soft or worse (and collectively those of the rest of the progeny of his sire Nathaniel) were set out previously
I've cashed out.
Has to be a doubt about Thursday's races happening at all.
Galia Des Liteaux (best 33s 6 places but only with Coral, generally 25s and getting support) is still 10/1 to finish Top 5 with Bet365.
I backed her at 50s e/w 5 places a while back but have doubled my stake with a slice of the Top 5 Finish.
Wow, didn't expect that - he must be reading this thread.
Mark Walsh has chosen to ride Limerick Lace ahead of Meetingofthewaters, who'll be piloted by Danny Mullins.
Paul Townend will partner I Am Maximus - that seems to have been a given and that's logical in light of the peach he gave him at Fairyhouse.
Good news all round.
So , assuming he's scratched in Thursday's GN decs, the weights will rise 1lb and all 3 of Eklat De Rire, Chambard and Kittys Light will be guaranteed a run.
Next up, Malina girl.
..... it's like deja vu all over again
PS I seem to have one funky-looking portfolio this year - will explain tomorrow
After 9.2mm of Rain throughout the day today Tuesday the going has been changed to
HEAVY, Soft in places on National Course
GoingStick reading: 3.0
Mildmay Couse : SOFT, Heavy in places
The track has had 40 mm in the last week , with a further 4-6 mm expected tomorrow
Forecasts now showing 70% chance of showers Thursday evening and night.
Winning Calibre
Next Best:
Best Place Potential: