Having already backed 3 of Mullins horses at very attractive odds I have decided to hopefully cover my stakes with a win only bet on Corach Rambler on Betfair. I can't get out of my mind the wonderful run in the Gold Cup and the handicapper has been kind to him. Good luck to all Lifers having a bet and once again hats off to Peanuts for a magnificent thread. 🥃🥃🥃
The choice of ride by a jockey that I'm most interested in is that of Mark Walsh, who has the pick of JPs. I expect (and hope) he'll opt for Meetingofthewaters, whom he rode in the Ultima. He's never ridden I Am Maximus and, given his quirks, it would be good to see Paul Townend on board, having given him such a stellar ride in the Irish GN, though I sense he too would pick MOTW if he had the choice. Mr Incredible will presumably be the ride of usual partner Brian Hayes.
Sunday going update from Aintree: NATIONAL Course: no change: Soft (Heavy from 7th to 12th fences). Forecast is for a total of around 27mm rain, heavy at times, Mon through Wed; warming up and dry Thurs & Fri; 50% chance of light showers on Sat. If it pans out like that, expect the Meeting to start with the ground pretty much the same as now: Soft (Hvy places) Then it will be a case, with the good drainage but a high water table, of how much it can dry out Thurs & Fri and whether or not any meaningful showers come on GN raceday.
Much though I'd love Kitty's to have his ground, I just can't see it getting back to better than a mix of Soft and GS at best - not decent enough for him IMHO. But who the F knows for sure?
Interesting facts in the RP No horse has fallen or unseated at Beechers since 2018 nor in the Topham since 2016. Placed horses in the Gold Cup in the last 40 years have finished 240FBFP471U2FF45 on their next start in the National. The one winner was Rough Quest.
Interesting facts in the RP No horse has fallen or unseated at Beechers since 2018 nor in the Topham since 2016. Placed horses in the Gold Cup in the last 40 years have finished 240FBFP471U2FF45 on their next start in the National. The one winner was Rough Quest.
And Rough Quest was absurdly “well in”, with only 10.07 on his back and he only just held off Encore Un Peu. Mind you it was only 16 days later.
NATIONAL Course unchanged: Soft, Heavy from 7th to 12 fences Forecast: Rain, heavy at times Mon (8-10+mm) and Tues (5-8mm); winds strengthening on Tues. Sunny spells and showers Wed. Sunny spells Thurs with the chance of a shower, particularly o'night into Fri. Sunny spells & scattered showers Fri/Sat.
A big 24 hours. Confirmations today and any meaningful further rain will come later today and tomorrow morning. If it does, the going's unlikely to be materially better than now for the Foxhunters' Chase on Thursday. Given the drainage and forecast for the 3 days of the meeting, my best guess is still that, by Saturday, it's dried out to a mix of GS and Soft. Aintree being Aintree, I suspect that the official going will be the same as last year - GS (Soft places) - and suggest that GS is predominant but I suspect it will ride slower, more like Soft (GS places). BUT, if showers on Saturday are heavier or more persistent than anticipated, as happened in 2006 and 2016, they would soften the ground quickly and markedly, tipping it back to Soft and maybe heavy again around the Canal Turn. No doubt the official going would still start "GS"
Interesting article in the Sporting Life this morning about the pedigrees of some of the leading GN contenders. I've got my own views about key pedigree components, which are now a material part of my model's methodology but no doubt this area will always remain work in progress, not least because breeding patterns are always evolving and, just through the passage of time, stallions represented as sires inevitably come instead to be damsires, by which they may have a very different impact (stronger or weaker than as a sire) on a runner's chances.
Anyway, here's John Ingles' take on the key aspects of some of the key pedigrees this year - all interesting stuff:
John Ingles looks at the pedigrees of some of this year's Aintree first-timers for clues about them staying the marathon trip.
The first two in last year’s Grand National, Corach Rambler and Vanillier, are among the leading contenders again, but what do the pedigrees tell us about some of the other leading contenders who will be tackling the four and a quarter miles of Aintree’s unique test for the first time?
I AM MAXIMUS
Authorized – Polysheba (Poliglote)
The French-bred I Am Maximus has only been tried over a marathon trip once before but he made it count, winning the Irish Grand National over 3m5f to get off the mark over fences this time last year. Most recently, he has also won the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse over 3m1f, emphatically beating Vanillier giving the runner-up plenty of weight. However, his pedigree would have given little clue that he’d become a high-class staying chaser, though he does share his sire, Derby winner Authorized, with dual Grand National hero Tiger Roll. Out of a mare by Poliglote, I Am Maximus is therefore bred on the same cross as the talented but quirky jumper Goshen.
Poliglote sired an Irish Grand National winner himself for I Am Maximus’ owner J. P. McManus, and is the sire of another Grand National entry Roi Mage who was seventh last year. Whilst Poliglote is better known for his jumpers such as top novice chaser Fact To File, his daughter Polysheba, the dam of I Am Maximus, was a useful filly on the Flat for Andre Fabre who was listed-placed, though her full brother Assureur did win over hurdles in France. However, this is principally a Flat family and one which has had success at the top level in the USA not too far back, with I Am Maximus’ grandam being a half-sister to champion 1990 three-year-old colt Unbridled, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic.
KITTY’S LIGHT
Nathaniel – Daraiyna (Refuse To Bend)
If anything, the Flat-bred Kitty’s Light has even more of an unlikely pedigree for a staying chaser than I Am Maximus. But winning three races over fences before he’d even turned five soon made that academic, and he’s since proven himself a thorough stayer, ending last season winning three major long-distance handicaps, the Eider, the Scottish Grand National and the bet365 Gold Cup. His sire Nathaniel has still had fewer than a dozen winners over fences all told and it would be some achievement for a stallion best known for top-class Flat mare Enable to come up with a Grand National winner just two years after his son Desert Crown won the Derby.
Like many successful jumpers before him, Kitty’s Light comes from an Aga Khan family. Trained by Jean-Claude Rouget, his dam Daraiyna won over a mile and a quarter in France and was a half-sister to Dariak who showed useful form over hurdles in Ireland. A bit further back, this is also the family of Prix du Jockey Club winners Darsi and Almanzor, the latter a champion three-year-old in Europe for Rouget.
MEETINGOFTHEWATERS
Court Cave – Maisy Daisy (Luso)
Meetingofthewaters has a bit more to prove stamina-wise than the above-named pair but he also has a much more conventional jumping pedigree. A winning pointer, Meetingofthewaters won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on his first try over three miles under Rules and ran his best race over a furlong further when third in the Ultima at Cheltenham last time. His sire is Court Cave, an unraced brother to Beat Hollow who also has a Grand National runner this year, former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo.
Meetingofthewaters’ dam Maisy Daisy won a Limerick bumper on her debut and is a half-sister to numerous winners, including Boneyarrow who was a useful novice hurdler/chaser when trained by Meetingofthewaters’ trainer Willie Mullins. Among the good jumpers a bit further back in the family are Keepatem who also won the Paddy Power Chase and stayed very well (second in the four-mile Borders National at Kelso) and the Feltham Novices’ Chase winner Dakyns Boy who was another thorough stayer, finishing second in an Eider and completing once in a Grand National. This family’s success with the Mullins yard goes back a long way as Meetingofthewaters’ great grandam Slave Light was a full sister to the dam of none other than Dawn Run.
PANDA BOY
Valirann – Ballymartintheatre (King’s Theatre)
Panda Boy was runner-up to Meetingofthewaters in the Paddy Power (replay below), finishing placed in that race for the second year running, and has form over further too, having finished a creditable fifth behind I Am Maximus in last year’s Irish Grand National. He’s from the first crop of the smart French stayer Valirann, along with a couple of good winners over fences in Britain this season, Forward Plan, winner of the Coral Trophy at Kempton and Knappers Hill, winner of the Rising Stars Novices’ Chase at Wincanton.
While none of the first three dams in Panda Boy’s pedigree raced themselves, they’ve all produced winning jumpers, including a Grade 1 winner at Aintree. That was Garruth, a half-brother to Panda Boy’s dam, who won the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle by a distance in desperate ground in 2001, the year when Red Marauder and Smarty were the only ones to complete without mishap in the National. Garruth didn’t reach the same heights over fences but confirmed he had plenty of stamina, including when narrowly beaten in the Southern National at Fontwell.
MAHLER MISSION
Mahler – Finnow Turkle (Turtle Island)
Coral Gold Cup runner-up Mahler Mission promises to stay beyond three and a quarter miles and he might already have done so had he not fallen two out in last season’s National Hunt Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham when looking the most likely winner. His sire Mahler was a smart stayer on the Flat, winning the Queen’s Vase and finishing placed in the St Leger and Melbourne Cup, and has sired a number of good staying chasers including The Big Dog who was a good fifth in last year’s Grand National after finishing third in the Welsh equivalent.
While Mahler Mission fetched just €4,200 as an unbroken three-year-old, he boasts a better jumping pedigree on his dam’s side than that would suggest with some stout stayers among his relatives. His unraced dam, for example, is a half-sister to Murchu, who won the Porterstown Handicap Chase over the Irish National course and distance, and to the useful if lazy Buachaill Alainn who won the Durham National at Sedgefield.
Also, Mahler Mission’s great grandam Goolagong was a half-sister to Lord Browndodd who was only a couple of lengths off the lead jumping the last in the 1978 Grand National before finishing seventh to Lucius.
Hope all's well. We're about to get news on the latest drop outs from the entries, after which I'll post my (and my model's) top selections. Coming shortly. Cheers
Hope all's well. We're about to get news on the latest drop outs from the entries, after which I'll post my (and my model's) top selections. Coming shortly. Cheers
They were scratched a few days ago, hence were relegated then to the bottom of the card on the RP website. I think we're still waiting on news of today's Confirmations and scratchings. Personally, given the ground, I'd be surprised if Conflated is not taken out in preference for the Bowl
When are they going to announce who has been scratched? I never seem to be able to find up to date information. I'm waiting for them to confirm Rachael will ride Minella Indo so i can trade out on Betfair and use the money for other bets.
So, as things stand after Confirmations, #34 is Eklat De Rire.
Both Chambard and Kitty's Light currently would not make the line-up and are tied for the next one up (both having their current ORs dropped to 145). A ballot would determine which gets in, if a single berth becomes available. But it's a mystery to me why Eklat de Rire (100/1) remains on OR146 when he was dropped to a full 4lbs lower at OR142 in Ireland after he PU'd in the Ultima - the same race in which Kitty's was 7th, inducing his 1lb drop. Explain that, Mr Handicapper, to Kitty's connections and backers.
Who knows the motivations of Mullins and Elliott. Obviously and not unreasonably they are driven by £££ but each with battalions of horses of the requisite marks, they also have the motive to use outsiders from their yards as bed-blockers to keep out a strong rival, and today's non-event of scratchings does nothing to dispel the concern that that's precisely what they're doing.
Again obviously, they're entitled to keep their options for runners open. But we wait with baited breath (but with cynical suspicions) for Thursday's Declarations.
When are they going to announce who has been scratched? I never seem to be able to find up to date information. I'm waiting for them to confirm Rachael will ride Minella Indo so i can trade out on Betfair and use the money for other bets.
It's pathetic the way news of scratchings at official Forfeit and Confirmation Stages dribbles out.
No doubt in my mind that the Irish trainers will keep their unfancied horses in to maximise their own chances. Cynical I know but that is how I see it.
Hold the back page. Racing Post states that Eklat De Rire, Chambard and Kitty's Light are all currently on OR145. I maligned the British handicapper in error ........ on this occasion! So, as things stand, 1 of them is guaranteed a run, to be decided by ballot unless at least 2 above them come out at Decs in which case all 3 run. Still need 3 to come out for Malina Girl to do so.
Hold the back page. Racing Post states that Eklat De Rire, Chambard and Kitty's Light are all currently on OR145. I maligned the British handicapper in error ........ on this occasion! So, as things stand, 1 of them is guaranteed a run, to be decided by ballot unless at least 2 above them come out at Decs in which case all 3 run. Still need 3 to come out for Malina Girl to do so.
Paddy Power has them listed as this 35 Panda Boy 10st 6lb 146 36 Kitty’s Light 10st 6lb 146 37 Malina Girl 10st 5lb 145 38 Desertmore House 10st 4lb 144 39 Kinondu Kwetu 10st 4lb 144
Comments
Good luck to all Lifers having a bet and once again hats off to Peanuts for a magnificent thread. 🥃🥃🥃
I expect (and hope) he'll opt for Meetingofthewaters, whom he rode in the Ultima.
He's never ridden I Am Maximus and, given his quirks, it would be good to see Paul Townend on board, having given him such a stellar ride in the Irish GN, though I sense he too would pick MOTW if he had the choice.
Mr Incredible will presumably be the ride of usual partner Brian Hayes.
NATIONAL Course: no change: Soft (Heavy from 7th to 12th fences).
Forecast is for a total of around 27mm rain, heavy at times, Mon through Wed; warming up and dry Thurs & Fri; 50% chance of light showers on Sat.
If it pans out like that, expect the Meeting to start with the ground pretty much the same as now: Soft (Hvy places)
Then it will be a case, with the good drainage but a high water table, of how much it can dry out Thurs & Fri and whether or not any meaningful showers come on GN raceday.
Much though I'd love Kitty's to have his ground, I just can't see it getting back to better than a mix of Soft and GS at best - not decent enough for him IMHO. But who the F knows for sure?
Fingers crossed Victor gets well and truly plucked.
No horse has fallen or unseated at Beechers since 2018 nor in the Topham since 2016.
Placed horses in the Gold Cup in the last 40 years have finished
240FBFP471U2FF45 on their next start in the National. The one winner was Rough Quest.
Mind you it was only 16 days later.
NATIONAL Course unchanged: Soft, Heavy from 7th to 12 fences
Forecast: Rain, heavy at times Mon (8-10+mm) and Tues (5-8mm); winds strengthening on Tues. Sunny spells and showers Wed. Sunny spells Thurs with the chance of a shower, particularly o'night into Fri. Sunny spells & scattered showers Fri/Sat.
A big 24 hours.
Confirmations today and any meaningful further rain will come later today and tomorrow morning. If it does, the going's unlikely to be materially better than now for the Foxhunters' Chase on Thursday.
Given the drainage and forecast for the 3 days of the meeting, my best guess is still that, by Saturday, it's dried out to a mix of GS and Soft.
Aintree being Aintree, I suspect that the official going will be the same as last year - GS (Soft places) - and suggest that GS is predominant but I suspect it will ride slower, more like Soft (GS places).
BUT, if showers on Saturday are heavier or more persistent than anticipated, as happened in 2006 and 2016, they would soften the ground quickly and markedly, tipping it back to Soft and maybe heavy again around the Canal Turn. No doubt the official going would still start "GS"
Coral now going 6 places NRNB
Interesting article in the Sporting Life this morning about the pedigrees of some of the leading GN contenders.
I've got my own views about key pedigree components, which are now a material part of my model's methodology but no doubt this area will always remain work in progress, not least because breeding patterns are always evolving and, just through the passage of time, stallions represented as sires inevitably come instead to be damsires, by which they may have a very different impact (stronger or weaker than as a sire) on a runner's chances.
Anyway, here's John Ingles' take on the key aspects of some of the key pedigrees this year - all interesting stuff:
John Ingles looks at the pedigrees of some of this year's Aintree first-timers for clues about them staying the marathon trip.
The first two in last year’s Grand National, Corach Rambler and Vanillier, are among the leading contenders again, but what do the pedigrees tell us about some of the other leading contenders who will be tackling the four and a quarter miles of Aintree’s unique test for the first time?
I AM MAXIMUS
Authorized – Polysheba (Poliglote)
The French-bred I Am Maximus has only been tried over a marathon trip once before but he made it count, winning the Irish Grand National over 3m5f to get off the mark over fences this time last year. Most recently, he has also won the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse over 3m1f, emphatically beating Vanillier giving the runner-up plenty of weight. However, his pedigree would have given little clue that he’d become a high-class staying chaser, though he does share his sire, Derby winner Authorized, with dual Grand National hero Tiger Roll. Out of a mare by Poliglote, I Am Maximus is therefore bred on the same cross as the talented but quirky jumper Goshen.
Poliglote sired an Irish Grand National winner himself for I Am Maximus’ owner J. P. McManus, and is the sire of another Grand National entry Roi Mage who was seventh last year. Whilst Poliglote is better known for his jumpers such as top novice chaser Fact To File, his daughter Polysheba, the dam of I Am Maximus, was a useful filly on the Flat for Andre Fabre who was listed-placed, though her full brother Assureur did win over hurdles in France. However, this is principally a Flat family and one which has had success at the top level in the USA not too far back, with I Am Maximus’ grandam being a half-sister to champion 1990 three-year-old colt Unbridled, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic.
KITTY’S LIGHT
Nathaniel – Daraiyna (Refuse To Bend)
If anything, the Flat-bred Kitty’s Light has even more of an unlikely pedigree for a staying chaser than I Am Maximus. But winning three races over fences before he’d even turned five soon made that academic, and he’s since proven himself a thorough stayer, ending last season winning three major long-distance handicaps, the Eider, the Scottish Grand National and the bet365 Gold Cup. His sire Nathaniel has still had fewer than a dozen winners over fences all told and it would be some achievement for a stallion best known for top-class Flat mare Enable to come up with a Grand National winner just two years after his son Desert Crown won the Derby.
Like many successful jumpers before him, Kitty’s Light comes from an Aga Khan family. Trained by Jean-Claude Rouget, his dam Daraiyna won over a mile and a quarter in France and was a half-sister to Dariak who showed useful form over hurdles in Ireland. A bit further back, this is also the family of Prix du Jockey Club winners Darsi and Almanzor, the latter a champion three-year-old in Europe for Rouget.
MEETINGOFTHEWATERS
Court Cave – Maisy Daisy (Luso)
Meetingofthewaters has a bit more to prove stamina-wise than the above-named pair but he also has a much more conventional jumping pedigree. A winning pointer, Meetingofthewaters won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on his first try over three miles under Rules and ran his best race over a furlong further when third in the Ultima at Cheltenham last time. His sire is Court Cave, an unraced brother to Beat Hollow who also has a Grand National runner this year, former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo.
Meetingofthewaters’ dam Maisy Daisy won a Limerick bumper on her debut and is a half-sister to numerous winners, including Boneyarrow who was a useful novice hurdler/chaser when trained by Meetingofthewaters’ trainer Willie Mullins. Among the good jumpers a bit further back in the family are Keepatem who also won the Paddy Power Chase and stayed very well (second in the four-mile Borders National at Kelso) and the Feltham Novices’ Chase winner Dakyns Boy who was another thorough stayer, finishing second in an Eider and completing once in a Grand National. This family’s success with the Mullins yard goes back a long way as Meetingofthewaters’ great grandam Slave Light was a full sister to the dam of none other than Dawn Run.
PANDA BOY
Valirann – Ballymartintheatre (King’s Theatre)
Panda Boy was runner-up to Meetingofthewaters in the Paddy Power (replay below), finishing placed in that race for the second year running, and has form over further too, having finished a creditable fifth behind I Am Maximus in last year’s Irish Grand National. He’s from the first crop of the smart French stayer Valirann, along with a couple of good winners over fences in Britain this season, Forward Plan, winner of the Coral Trophy at Kempton and Knappers Hill, winner of the Rising Stars Novices’ Chase at Wincanton.
While none of the first three dams in Panda Boy’s pedigree raced themselves, they’ve all produced winning jumpers, including a Grade 1 winner at Aintree. That was Garruth, a half-brother to Panda Boy’s dam, who won the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle by a distance in desperate ground in 2001, the year when Red Marauder and Smarty were the only ones to complete without mishap in the National. Garruth didn’t reach the same heights over fences but confirmed he had plenty of stamina, including when narrowly beaten in the Southern National at Fontwell.
MAHLER MISSION
Mahler – Finnow Turkle (Turtle Island)
Coral Gold Cup runner-up Mahler Mission promises to stay beyond three and a quarter miles and he might already have done so had he not fallen two out in last season’s National Hunt Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham when looking the most likely winner. His sire Mahler was a smart stayer on the Flat, winning the Queen’s Vase and finishing placed in the St Leger and Melbourne Cup, and has sired a number of good staying chasers including The Big Dog who was a good fifth in last year’s Grand National after finishing third in the Welsh equivalent.
While Mahler Mission fetched just €4,200 as an unbroken three-year-old, he boasts a better jumping pedigree on his dam’s side than that would suggest with some stout stayers among his relatives. His unraced dam, for example, is a half-sister to Murchu, who won the Porterstown Handicap Chase over the Irish National course and distance, and to the useful if lazy Buachaill Alainn who won the Durham National at Sedgefield.
Also, Mahler Mission’s great grandam Goolagong was a half-sister to Lord Browndodd who was only a couple of lengths off the lead jumping the last in the 1978 Grand National before finishing seventh to Lucius.
So what are three decent EW bets for a once or twice a year mug punter?
Hope all's well.
We're about to get news on the latest drop outs from the entries, after which I'll post my (and my model's) top selections.
Coming shortly.
Cheers
I'm waiting on tenterhooks
are you referring to Classic Getaway and Bronn?
I think we're still waiting on news of today's Confirmations and scratchings.
Personally, given the ground, I'd be surprised if Conflated is not taken out in preference for the Bowl
Cheers @oldbloke
Some bed-blocking going on methinks.
Will have a fiver myself.
Both Chambard and Kitty's Light currently would not make the line-up and are tied for the next one up (both having their current ORs dropped to 145). A ballot would determine which gets in, if a single berth becomes available.
But it's a mystery to me why Eklat de Rire (100/1) remains on OR146 when he was dropped to a full 4lbs lower at OR142 in Ireland after he PU'd in the Ultima - the same race in which Kitty's was 7th, inducing his 1lb drop.
Explain that, Mr Handicapper, to Kitty's connections and backers.
Who knows the motivations of Mullins and Elliott. Obviously and not unreasonably they are driven by £££ but each with battalions of horses of the requisite marks, they also have the motive to use outsiders from their yards as bed-blockers to keep out a strong rival, and today's non-event of scratchings does nothing to dispel the concern that that's precisely what they're doing.
Again obviously, they're entitled to keep their options for runners open. But we wait with baited breath (but with cynical suspicions) for Thursday's Declarations.
#35 Chambard / Kitty's Light
#37 Malina Girl
#38 Desertmore House / Kinondo Kwetu
#40 Shakem Up'Arry
Racing Post states that Eklat De Rire, Chambard and Kitty's Light are all currently on OR145.
I maligned the British handicapper in error ........ on this occasion!
So, as things stand, 1 of them is guaranteed a run, to be decided by ballot unless at least 2 above them come out at Decs in which case all 3 run.
Still need 3 to come out for Malina Girl to do so.
35 Panda Boy 10st 6lb 146
36 Kitty’s Light 10st 6lb 146
37 Malina Girl 10st 5lb 145
38 Desertmore House 10st 4lb 144
39 Kinondu Kwetu 10st 4lb 144
https://news.paddypower.com/horse-racing-news/2024/04/08/grand-national-weights-aintree-2024/