@PeanutsMolloy I appreciate that Empire Steel is a bit of a Kelso specialist but do you think Thompson will go for the Topham rather than the GN and if he opts for the latter, what do you think of his chances? Loves soft ground and it's currently 100/1 (150 on Betfair) and with NRNB I've had a little tickle E/W at that price.
Ground described this morning by the racecourse as Soft - Heavy in places on the GN Course.
"The heavy ground is the lower section from Foinavon round to the back of Valentine's," said clerk of the course Sulekha Varma. "The sun is shining right now but the back end of this week has the potential to turn quite wet and the forecasters are saying it will continue to be unsettled. It sounds like we can expect some level of showers most days."
Perhaps one of those one-paced horses that stay longer than the mother-in-law will triumph at what is currently a massive price.
Hearing that from the course, I've restored the win portion of my Galia Des Liteaux interest and topped up Roi Mage at 12/1 for Top 5.
@PeanutsMolloy I appreciate that Empire Steel is a bit of a Kelso specialist but do you think Thompson will go for the Topham rather than the GN and if he opts for the latter, what do you think of his chances? Loves soft ground and it's currently 100/1 (150 on Betfair) and with NRNB I've had a little tickle E/W at that price.
Interesting.
10 yo is these days a bit long in the tooth BUT not if it's Soft (13 yos made first 3 in both of the last 2 GNs run on Soft - 2016 & 2018, when a 10 yo nearly won it). IMHO, his run in last year's Scot Nat was a lot better than the bare 8th 17L suggests, especially on quick ground. Handy all the way, right in the mix 2 out and he got gobbled up by the fast-finishers rather than failing to see out the trip (at least to my eyes - jockey steadying him at the last made it look that way but he ran through the line well enough). And the form of the race looks decent. Will be off the same 145 at Aintree and on soft, there won't be many showing a turn of foot at the business end. Although more used to small fields and, as you say Kelso, that run at Ayr had 17 in opposition. They don't take prisoners in that race so I'd have no great concern about mixing it with 33 at Aintree. Decent jumping record and will have a GN-winning pilot of course. Not long ago had wind surgery and won as fav on comeback (2nd won next outing) - possible bounce? who knows?
Damside of the pedigree hints at the trip being in range: From family of Saphir Du Rheu, who was fancied enough to be sent off 16/1 in the 2017 GN (Fell 11th in mid div so who knows?). Damsire Turgeon has had 9 offspring (as DS) run 13 times at 4m+. 0 winners but 3 of them have placed a total of 4 times (so, a respectable 31% frame-making rate) and they include Vanillier's GN near-miss last year (he obviously wasn't stopping). Only 1 other run in GN (mud-lover Lord Du Mesnil, who had ground against in 2021). Linebred to Mill Reef, as was One For Arthur (who had a shed load of other Pedigree Pluses), Balko Des Flos and dear old Swing Bill.
FWIW, not a bad rating according to my model. 3 test-fails on Soft (4 on GS) with 1 Pedigree Plus, makes him "bold show no cigar" on Soft but these are fine margins and misfortune (for others?) more likely on such ground.
At 100s could be tempted to join you (with an "extracurricular Fiver") , though touch and go that he makes the cut and, if it's Soft ground, they might just opt for the Topham anyway - may depend how it looks after Monday's Confirmations.
Nice spot though.
PS Unsurprisingly, Kitty's Light is one of many GN entries also to have Scot Nat and Bet365 entries. In his case, it also wouldn't surprise me if connections give Aintree the swerve if it is Soft ground, even if the chance may never come again. We'll always have Ayr!
If you're a value-seeker, like me, you might be considering ROI MAGE at least to placeif the ground is Soft or worse. If so, you might like to know that Bet365 have pushed him out to 80/1. I reckon Bob's taking the piss actually. Elsewhere the best-price with bookies is 66/1 (but many have cut to 50s) & Betfair Exchange 70. PP is as low as 40/1. There was a piece in the RP today about his smoother prep this season compared to last, when 7th 14L behind Corach Rambler on less favourable ground than is likely this time. He travelled beautifully, handy all the way until outdone for gears and jumped the fences like a horse that was having a ball and would love to go round again. True he's now 12 years old but I'll repeat points made above:
on his preferred Soft or worse ground, older horses do well in GNs (13 year olds [both picked out by my model ] came home 3rd in the last 2 GNs on Soft in 2016 and Heavy in 2018)
his record in 42 chases and 13 hurdles in Brit, Ire and Fr is: completions 52, BD 1, F 2 - a (96% completion rate ex the BD, making the frame in 53% of them)
Corach's mark is +13lbs on last year, his is the same OR147 (carrying the same as or 1lb less than last year's 10.08)
unlike last year, he'll have on board preferred jockey James Reveley (who rode him to win a 27f Listed Chase in France in November on Heavy - "won going away")
damsire Nikos (sire of GN 2nd Encore Un Peu and damsire of Houblon Des Obeaux - both mud-lovers) and damsire 2 Cadoudal (damsire of GN 3rd My Will) are key components in his pedigree that suggest he'd see out the trip on testing ground just as well as he did last time on GS.
He went off 33/1 last year and, if we're looking at slower ground this time, 80/1 is extreme e/w value IMHO, though if you can't see him winning, a Top 5 Finish at 10/1 (also Bet365) is similarly attractive if the ground is Soft or worse, especially with 6 fewer opponents lining up this time.
Meanwhile, the RP article tipping Nassalam, I Am Maximus, Mr Incredible and Galia Des Liteaux as 4 that would relish testing ground has had an immediate effect on the market:
Nassalam now 25/1 I Am Maximus 8/1 Mr Incredible 16/1 Galia Des Liteaux 40/1
I think the handicapper has killed any chance Nassalam had.
I completely agree and it's a great shame with the ground looking as it does. There are many reasons why owners send their best horses to Ireland but the crassness of our handicapper is one of them. Even if a 16lb rise was understandable as a knee-jerk response to the manner of his Welsh GN win, despite clear evidence subsequently that he beat very little that day and that, as demonstrated in the GC, he himself is not a 161 horse, he's failed to drop his mark even today. But I would argue, the considered response to that impressive win by a 6 yo would have been say a 10lb rise, allowing him a chance to win again, though hardly making him a shoo-in. He should not but, more to the point, I would venture to suggest the Irish handicapper would not have put a 6 year old up that amount. It seems to me the British handicapper's policy is to put classy, young horses immediately they show talent up to marks that are positively designed to stop 90%+ of them winning again and it's just plain unfair on owners. Very few of them are Denmans. And, for sure, when it's clear they're not, he'll never slash them even half as quick as he hiked them. Give the owners a break FFS.
Interesting comments in the RP about Mr Incredible by the bloke whose project he's been, Patrick Mullins:
"I think the whole atmosphere and big field helps him put his best foot forward.”
Mullins admits variety is key in keeping the quirky chaser on side.
“Teachers might have one maverick child in their class and that’s him," he said. "He keeps us all on our toes and keeps us thinking. He has his own way of doing things – he’s very kind in his box, but sometimes he just doesn’t feel like exercising. You have to keep changing things around to keep him interested, but he’s been on his best behaviour since Christmas.
“He probably does half the work of the other horses. He doesn’t go to the gallop every day and does a lot of walking and lunging – he doesn’t do the same thing two days in a row. He must have a huge engine in there and we’re doing our best to get it out of him.”
“He looked like he really enjoyed the National course last year so the plan has been to go back there,” said Patrick Mullins.
“It was a fabulous comeback run at Uttoxeter ..... and I get a lot of pleasure out of seeing him run well having known the time and effort that goes into him.
“He gets in off a winnable weight under 11st, we know he stays, soft ground is no problem to him and he jumps very well."
BTW, his sire Westerner has a well-above-average 36% win and place rate in races over 29f+ on heavy ground. I'm very glad to have the outsized pozzy on him at 33s.
Mullins neatly sums up the potential but vulnerability of I Am Maximus as well:
“I Am Maximus has to have a huge chance. He’s an awkward jumper at times, and you do wonder how he will take to the track, but if he takes to the fences he definitely has the ability to make his presence felt."
The thought of the way he ran in the Irish GN and his jumping does give me the heeby-jeebies.
As the model's top-rated selection, I'm very happy to be on him at 25s e/w but his current price is way too short for the risk IMHO, though I guess as something of a shit or bust runner (like the very unfortunate Synchronised was in 2012) 8s still works as a Win only bet.
Reluctantly, I'm inclined to cash out Kitty's Light if it continues to look like it will be Soft. He's a different horse and a top contender on a sound surface but, if it's Soft, I really think they should give Aintree the swerve in favour of Ayr and maybe Sandown again - he's young enough to come back another day.
Taking a close look at Malina Girl 66/1(10/1 for Top 5 Finish) as another interesting outsider on Soft. And another mare !!
Got to say, whatever grumbles (justified or not) we may have with bookies, notwithstanding the large implied margin in their favour, the cash-out facility is a material boon when it comes to adjusting a betting slip for changing ground conditions and going-dependent selections.
Aside from some trading on Betfair at modest profit on Kitty's Light and Galia Des Liteaux, it's enabled me to perform a lot of surgery on my GN slip and make a series of tactical bets, as the going looks more and more likely to be atypical Soft and in light of uncertainty about the cut.
Cheers Bob et al.
I'm holding off on cashing out Kitty's Light but, unless it looks like much drier weather than currently forecast is in store next week, I'll do so before Monday.
The promise of Soft ground or worse provides (often only briefly) the sort of price anomalies that value-seekers dream of.
Anticipating that ground, I've added another tactical Top 5 Finish at 10/1NRNB to my already eclectic book of interests in another mud-lover (and another mare!!) at the bottom of the weights, MALINA GIRL, top-price 66/1 e/w, if preferred (I'm content with the Top 5). Like Limerick Lace, she's trained by the astute Gavin Cromwell and though she's not guaranteed a run yet, she needs only 4 to come out above her to be sure of one (possibly only 3, depending on ballot or Empire Steel's target). If she makes the cut, she'll carry at most 10.06.
Winner of last April's 3.5m Ulster National on Soft (a race won by Pineau De Re a year before his GN triumph in 2014), she now does much of her racing this side of the Puddle and stormed home up the Hill on Soft in the autumn 3.5m Class 1 chase at Cheltenham - a race in which Don't Push It was close 2nd prior to winning the 2010 GN (Hello Bud was 3rd and 5th respectively - the then model picked both). Alvarado won it in the 2013/4 season before the first of his 2 GN4ths.
She probably didn't beat much that day but finished so strongly (reminiscent of Nassalam's Welsh GN win!) she was put up 11lbs to OR146 (if she makes the cut, she'll be off 145 in the GN). While superficially her record since looks like the rise has shackled her, in fact her next outing suggests otherwise. She was running a blinder off the new mark over 26f on Soft against some quality opposition (including Threeunderthrufive and subsequent Ryanair winner Protektorat), looking highly likely to be in the mix but for knuckling on landing and falling 3 out (that wretched downhill fence at Prestbury!).
The form of that race is good (2 wins and 2 near-misses from 7 subsequent runs by the first 4 home) and implies she's competitive off her current mark. Though the fall seemed to unnerve her, disappointing as topweight next run in the Warwick National (well behind Galia Des Liteaux), she jumped much better when 2nd in a Mares Chase next time (GDL behind this time). Last outing over hurdles at an inadequate 20f can be ignored - she ran well enough but isn't as good over the floppies (one of her 3 GN test fails).
She'll be seeing the GN fences for the first time but, if she takes to them, with repeat form at 28f on the ground, she could deliver a big surprise, albeit probably as frame-maker rather than victor.
While not stellar from a GN perspective, her pedigree strongly suggests 34f is in range on her ground and has a couple of components in common with Gilgamboa (GN 4th on Soft in 2016):
Shares her sire Malinas with Mighty Thunder (x2 winner over 4m+, including a Scottish National and, on Soft, an Edinburgh National, and near-misser in the 34f Midlands National)
Damsire Westerner, as a sire, has a 36% frame-making rate when his offspring have run at 29f+ on heavy ground and sired Gilgamboa (GN 4th on Soft in 2016) and Mr Incredible, who certainly saw out the Mid Nat trip over 34f
2nd Damsire Be My Native was also Damsire of Gilgamboa and GN close 2nd Black Apalachi (also top stayer Native River)
3rd Damsire Strong Gale, while no winners, has a litany of near-missing GN connections as Damsire of Cappa Bleu (GN2nd and 4th), Teaforthree (GN 3rd), Shutthefrontdoor (GN 5th) and 2nd Damsire of The Last Samuri (GN 2nd) and Rathvinden (GN 3rd)
She's also distantly related to Santini (GN 4th)
She absolutely needs Soft ground, finding last year's Scottish National too hot to handle on quick ground, but courtesy of the weather it's shaping up to be the best opportunity for a mare to win a GN since the last winner in 1951 and for more than 1 to figure prominently.
Forecast is broadly better, warming up a touch but showers and windy from time to time. On that basis, going should improve a little and I'd guess most likely going for GN = Soft (GS places) or at very best GS (Soft places) But course will be vulnerable to late rain and meaningful (heavy or persistent) showers on the day of the race could quickly turn it Heavy in places or even all over.
Gavin Cromwell reports:
"We have the three for the National ....
Vanillier doesn't want it that soft, I know he's slow but he improves for a little bit of spring ground.
Limerick Lace wouldn't want too much heavy in it either to stay that trip and Malina Girl would be in the same boat."
Interesting comments in the RP about Mr Incredible by the bloke whose project he's been, Patrick Mullins:
"I think the whole atmosphere and big field helps him put his best foot forward.”
Mullins admits variety is key in keeping the quirky chaser on side.
“Teachers might have one maverick child in their class and that’s him," he said. "He keeps us all on our toes and keeps us thinking. He has his own way of doing things – he’s very kind in his box, but sometimes he just doesn’t feel like exercising. You have to keep changing things around to keep him interested, but he’s been on his best behaviour since Christmas.
“He probably does half the work of the other horses. He doesn’t go to the gallop every day and does a lot of walking and lunging – he doesn’t do the same thing two days in a row. He must have a huge engine in there and we’re doing our best to get it out of him.”
“He looked like he really enjoyed the National course last year so the plan has been to go back there,” said Patrick Mullins.
“It was a fabulous comeback run at Uttoxeter ..... and I get a lot of pleasure out of seeing him run well having known the time and effort that goes into him.
“He gets in off a winnable weight under 11st, we know he stays, soft ground is no problem to him and he jumps very well."
BTW, his sire Westerner has a well-above-average 36% win and place rate in races over 29f+ on heavy ground. I'm very glad to have the outsized pozzy on him at 33s.
Mullins neatly sums up the potential but vulnerability of I Am Maximus as well:
“I Am Maximus has to have a huge chance. He’s an awkward jumper at times, and you do wonder how he will take to the track, but if he takes to the fences he definitely has the ability to make his presence felt."
The thought of the way he ran in the Irish GN and his jumping does give me the heeby-jeebies.
As the model's top-rated selection, I'm very happy to be on him at 25s e/w but his current price is way too short for the risk IMHO, though I guess as something of a shit or bust runner (like the very unfortunate Synchronised was in 2012) 8s still works as a Win only bet.
Reluctantly, I'm inclined to cash out Kitty's Light if it continues to look like it will be Soft. He's a different horse and a top contender on a sound surface but, if it's Soft, I really think they should give Aintree the swerve in favour of Ayr and maybe Sandown again - he's young enough to come back another day.
Taking a close look at Malina Girl 66/1(10/1 for Top 5 Finish) as another interesting outsider on Soft. And another mare !!
Kitty's Light has gone for a bit of a walk on Betfair - hit a low of 15 but has been allowed to drift back out to 20
The relegation season of 2007 we were away to Everton on the National weekend, our game was played on the Sunday so we spent Saturday night in Southport.
Tbf that Saturday in the city centre the atmosphere was absolutely fantastic.
Got to be ground concerns presumably, and rightly so.
His stats show that his #1 need is for decent ground, even more than a trip:
Unplaced in all 6 chases on Soft and 1 on Hvy (all 24~25f)
To make like-for-like comparison, in his 6 chases at 24~25f on GS or quicker, his record is: 2 wins (33%) and 2 places (67% frame-making).
In all 19 chases on GS or better (20~33.5f), his record is 7 wins (37%), including over shortest 20f and furthest 33.5f, and 8 places (79%), runner-up in 5 including over 21f and 32f.
If he were indifferent to ground and just wanted a test of stamina, his 24~25f stats would favour Soft. It's patently not the case.
And this is consistent with the stats at 24f+ for all progeny of his sire Nathaniel, stripping out Kitty's Light's numbers, which in a reasonable sample size also show a bias to decent ground (though less pronounced).
On GS or better: 63 runs, 11 wins (16%), 10 places (33.3% frame-making)
Don't know when this interview was done but no indication of any doubts about the going from Christian Williams. Sounds like if he makes the top 34 he'll run. But he won't be carrying my shillings if it looks odds-on to be Soft.
The relegation season of 2007 we were away to Everton on the National weekend, our game was played on the Sunday so we spent Saturday night in Southport.
Tbf that Saturday in the city centre the atmosphere was absolutely fantastic.
We went to the GN that year & Everton the following day.
The relegation season of 2007 we were away to Everton on the National weekend, our game was played on the Sunday so we spent Saturday night in Southport.
Tbf that Saturday in the city centre the atmosphere was absolutely fantastic.
We went to the GN that year & Everton the following day.
Hope you had a better result than we did on the Sunday
Interesting comments in the RP about Mr Incredible by the bloke whose project he's been, Patrick Mullins:
"I think the whole atmosphere and big field helps him put his best foot forward.”
Mullins admits variety is key in keeping the quirky chaser on side.
“Teachers might have one maverick child in their class and that’s him," he said. "He keeps us all on our toes and keeps us thinking. He has his own way of doing things – he’s very kind in his box, but sometimes he just doesn’t feel like exercising. You have to keep changing things around to keep him interested, but he’s been on his best behaviour since Christmas.
“He probably does half the work of the other horses. He doesn’t go to the gallop every day and does a lot of walking and lunging – he doesn’t do the same thing two days in a row. He must have a huge engine in there and we’re doing our best to get it out of him.”
“He looked like he really enjoyed the National course last year so the plan has been to go back there,” said Patrick Mullins.
“It was a fabulous comeback run at Uttoxeter ..... and I get a lot of pleasure out of seeing him run well having known the time and effort that goes into him.
“He gets in off a winnable weight under 11st, we know he stays, soft ground is no problem to him and he jumps very well."
BTW, his sire Westerner has a well-above-average 36% win and place rate in races over 29f+ on heavy ground. I'm very glad to have the outsized pozzy on him at 33s.
Mullins neatly sums up the potential but vulnerability of I Am Maximus as well:
“I Am Maximus has to have a huge chance. He’s an awkward jumper at times, and you do wonder how he will take to the track, but if he takes to the fences he definitely has the ability to make his presence felt."
The thought of the way he ran in the Irish GN and his jumping does give me the heeby-jeebies.
As the model's top-rated selection, I'm very happy to be on him at 25s e/w but his current price is way too short for the risk IMHO, though I guess as something of a shit or bust runner (like the very unfortunate Synchronised was in 2012) 8s still works as a Win only bet.
Reluctantly, I'm inclined to cash out Kitty's Light if it continues to look like it will be Soft. He's a different horse and a top contender on a sound surface but, if it's Soft, I really think they should give Aintree the swerve in favour of Ayr and maybe Sandown again - he's young enough to come back another day.
Taking a close look at Malina Girl 66/1(10/1 for Top 5 Finish) as another interesting outsider on Soft. And another mare !!
Kitty's Light has gone for a bit of a walk on Betfair - hit a low of 15 but has been allowed to drift back out to 20
On the other hand, with the bookies still trimming him (to 12s top price now), may be more likely to be profit-taking. There's been a fair bit of trading on KL. Been in and out a bit myself.
On the other hand, with the bookies still trimming him (to 12s top price now), may be more likely to be profit-taking. There's been a fair bit of trading on KL. Been in and out a bit myself.
If you are interested in trading surely Minella Indo is the one to back. The price will crash as soon as they announce Rachael will be riding it.
On the other hand, with the bookies still trimming him (to 12s top price now), may be more likely to be profit-taking. There's been a fair bit of trading on KL. Been in and out a bit myself.
If you are interested in trading surely Minella Indo is the one to back. The price will crash as soon as they announce Rachael will be riding it.
Good point. I trade around positions I have in horses I fancy. Best profits I made were trading Delta Work at times (if memory serves) > 100s on Betfair for the GN prior to his first XC win in 2022, for which he was favourite to beat Tiger. Insane price anomaly but I was backing him for the GN any way. Ended up with a nice profit and a free position for a windfall win, though sadly only the e/w ticket paid off. I don’t fancy Minella Indo at all so don’t have a feel for a fair price or an interest in following the price trends but I completely get he’ll shorten if/when Rachel picks him. I suspect the news probably is in the market though, or should be if we’re pretty certain of it. May not be as much juice as one might imagine. If the price were to shorten dramatically I’d see it as a laying opportunity, if that were my game (it hasn't been since I forfeited my place profit having laid Ballabriggs in 2011 - hmm).
A few weeks ago Minella Indo was a ridiculously big price on Betfair which made me think it was a possible non runner. However it has shortened up considerably, presumably because punters think that it will be ridden by Rachael. Has she been confirmed as the rider?
A few weeks ago Minella Indo was a ridiculously big price on Betfair which made me think it was a possible non runner. However it has shortened up considerably, presumably because punters think that it will be ridden by Rachael. Has she been confirmed as the rider?
Not confirmed but, with Ain't That A Shame bought by amateur jockey David Maxwell, the de Bromhead alternative is only Eklat De Rire and, given Minella Indo's CV, I'd have thought it unlikely she'd ride for another trainer, though she could. I'd have thought her steering Minella was 90% in the price.
Going update this morning from Aintree - NATIONAL Course unchanged: Soft (Heavy 7th~12th fences). Consensus forecast seems to be sunny, dry and windy today, sunny, windy and showery tomorrow. BUT meaningful rain Mon night into Tues. If there's any drying out before then, given the high water table, that would probably put us back to square 1. Rest of the week, it seems to be drier, particularly Thurs and Friday but some say Saturday will also be dry, others showing 50~80% chance of light rain from 8am through and during the GN. Still impossible to call but, at best, it's surely going to be slower than last year (mix of GS and Soft) and, at worst, if that rain comes on raceday, get the wellies on!!
Few GN
runners start at 66/1+ without cause and, in many cases, it's fully justified.
But sometimes what deters backers is not a horse obviously out of its depth but a
single factor in its CV which, however superficially worrying, might just turn out to be a red herring. If so, those with some redeeming quality and/or other
credentials can produce a big shock.
100/1 Mon Mome (aided by rain-softened ground)
is a classic example. Having previously placed x3 at 28f+ on Soft & Heavy,
he'd disappointed 3 times that season at such trips and finished 10th in the previous GN. But those that looked closer recognised he'd had an injury-delayed start to that first GN season and the run had given him a sighter of the fences, which he'd handled well.
66/1 Aurora's Encore is another. A Scot Nat
near-misser a year earlier and spring ground lover, who'd had an abysmal season hitherto on soft, which had nicely dropped his mark but meant nothing as regards his chance back on a sound surface.
So too two 100/1 shots, Vics Canvas 3rd in 2016 (a 13 yo yes, but still a 2nd season chaser with form over the fences and at 29f) and Balko Des Flos 2nd in 2021 (winless for 3 years and UR last time out in the XC). Both had GN-starred pedigrees, though Balko's sadly eluded me until it was too late!
Shocks can and do happen in a GN and soft or heavy ground is often the catalyst.
So how about the 2024 GN?
I've already highlighted a couple at 66/1+ with under-estimated but serious chances of making the frame on slow ground: Roi Mage (one of my model's Place selections) and Malina Girl (borderline Place selection by the model). But there's another, of similarly-borderline Place calibre in the model's ratings, which is certainly speculative but IMHO on Soft ground has the potential to cause a major shock.
FAROUK D'ALENE (66/1, 100s on Betfair)
Don't fall for the cursory view, typified by Coral's sketch of GN runners, "talented but has a history of falls".
FF5 in his last 3 chases certainly looks scary and is no doubt the reason punters have written him off as a contender, but I strongly recommend taking the trouble to have a closer look.
That first F was his first failure to complete in 9 runs over obstacles. It came 2 out when travelling
strongly, challenging the leader and eventual winner L'Homme Presse in the 2022
Brown Advisory on Soft and was an unfortunate slow-motion fall, brushing through the top of the fence, causing him to be unable to get the landing gear down surely on the wet surface. He was travelling so strongly at the time that, despite still being more than a furlong from home, the Racing Post had no doubt he'd have finished close and awarded him the joint 2nd highest RPR for the level-weights race, 4lbs behind the winner. That was a career-high RPR162 and notably, from a stats' perspective, 8lbs higher than his GNOR
154.
Prior to that fall, his 4 runs in all disciplines at
23f+ had yielded 3 wins and a 1.25L 2nd but, sadly injured in the incident, he was
then off the track for 613 days.
His comeback (and big handicap debut, in November's Troytown) was abruptly halted by another fall, at the first fence having been held up at the rear under a claimer and possibly unsighted. But 11 days later
he travelled well and negotiated Thurles' fences confidently enough to finish 5th behind Classic
Getaway (ahead of Capodanno) over an inadequate 22f on Yielding - not a bad
effort for effectively his first run for over 20 months.
He followed up with a staying-on close 2nd over
hurdles (3m on heavy), qualifying him for the Pertemps Final in which, running off a 9lb higher mark, he raced
enthusiastically on ground more like GS than the official Soft, handy until outpaced 3 out (late PU) - the only occasion, other than the 2 Falls, on which he's failed to finish 1st or 2nd in 8 runs at 23~25f.
He's never raced beyond 25f but it's perhaps
interesting that, despite the testing ground, he was scratched from the Irish GN by Elliott in favour of a
tilt over 5 furlongs further at Aintree and, while his pedigree has some obscure components, it does provide reason to believe 4m may well be within range as he's related to Arpege D'alene (6L behind Tiger Roll in the 4m NH Chase at the 2017 Festival).
But surely, if a horse is a dodgy jumper, aren't those GN fences going to find them out?
Well, it may be counterintuitive but unblemished
jumping records are not the hallmark of every GN winner. Pineau De Re had
fallen at the 8th in the Becher Chase (his debut over the fences) 4 months before his 2014 victory and,
even over the bigger fences of yesteryear, 2 notoriously fallible jumpers, Rough
Quest and Red Marauder, won a GN (albeit that the latter was assisted by savagely-depleted opposition).
Tiger Roll was never considered the best of
jumpers and, having won his first GN on more forgiving Heavy, both he and Magic Of Light managed to take large sections of fences with them en route to their 1-2 in 2019.
The fact is, the fences are much more forgiving than they once were. Moreover, Soft ground means slower ground and, providing the horse likes to get its toe in, as FDA does, it also means relatively less pressure on jumping.
OK, so he could jump round but why might he be in the mix?
On a positive note, FDA ticks some key boxes:
a 9yo
and, allowing for a lost season, effectively a 2nd season chaser - sweet spot
unexposed beyond 25f but with a strong record at 3m and a relation that got 4m
shown more than a touch of class, near-missing in a Gr1 at 20f as a novice and registering a career-best RPR in a Gr1 at 24f, 8lb above his GN mark
won a big-field chase (18 runners)
due to carry
11.00 (plus 1lb if Conflated defects) - manageable
4 runs in the season, the last 30 days prior, with a near-miss to establish his well-being - perfect
he'll handle the ground if it comes up predominantly Soft (as seems likely) or even Heavy
Of course, we can't know how he'll take to the
fences and he could come a cropper. But that's why the market prices him 66 and bigger.
If he's
still standing and within range heading out on the 2nd circuit, he's got many components of the stat-profile required to be a frame-maker ....... or perhaps even ......!!
If it's soft ground, I'm definitely having a shilling on him at the price. So my alternative betting slips are now:
ANY GOING:
I Am Maximus 25/1
Mr Incredible 33/1
Limerick Lace 25/1
Galia Des Liteaux 50/1
Glengouly 50/ - might yet cash out or switch to Top 5 Finish only
Roi Mage (win at 80/1, top 5 at 12/1 & top 10 at 5/1)
ON GS only (otherwise cashed out or hedged):
Kitty's Light 25/1
ON SOFT or worse only (otherwise cashed out & positions sold):
Confirmations for Friday's Topham relevant to the GN are:
Fury Road The Goffer Mac Tottie Empire Steel Fantastic Lady Shakem Up'Arry
Notably, the Mullins' pair Adamantly Chosen and Glengouly have been scratched from the Topham and presumably will run in the GN.
They may still be keeping their options open, dependent on the weather, but if the 3 of these confirmed Topham runners inbold (now top 34 in the weights) all defect from the GN, and with Classic Getaway and Bronn known GN defectors at tomorrow's Confirmations, Chambard, Kitty's Light and Malina Girl (on OR145) will be guaranteed a run next Saturday.
Next in line would be Desertmore House (impressive Kerry National winner, for the same connections as Numbersixvalverde and ordinarily capable of a big run, but Martin Brassil's yard continues to struggle), followed by Kinondo Kwetu.
With an outside chance of making it (needs at least additional 5 to defect), Annual Invictus has the stat-profile to raise some eyebrows at 100/1 if the ground dried up to GS.
Possible further GN defectors include topweight Conflated and the GN weights would rise 1lb if he opts for the Bowl.
After a meaningfully wet Mon night into Tuesday and possible showers into Wed, the rest of the week looks dry, with the threat of rain on Saturday receding though not nil. Best guess for the GN: Soft (GS places)
Just had an extra wee nibble on Farouk D'alene because BetVic are presumably figuring he'll be scratched at Confirmations tomorrow or Thursday's Declarations and are offering 125/1 (66/1 top e/w price elsewhere, 110 Betfair win). Catch is it's antepost so stake is gone if he isn't declared but, at the price, I'm happy to take that chance and up my upside.
Confirmations for Friday's Topham relevant to the GN are:
Fury Road The Goffer Mac Tottie Empire Steel Fantastic Lady Shakem Up'Arry
Notably, the Mullins' pair Adamantly Chosen and Glengouly have been scratched from the Topham and presumably will run in the GN.
They may still be keeping their options open, dependent on the weather, but if the 3 of these confirmed Topham runners inbold (now top 34 in the weights) all defect from the GN, and with Classic Getaway and Bronn known GN defectors at tomorrow's Confirmations, Chambard, Kitty's Light and Malina Girl (on OR145) will be guaranteed a run next Saturday.
Next in line would be Desertmore House (impressive Kerry National winner, for the same connections as Numbersixvalverde and ordinarily capable of a big run, but Martin Brassil's yard continues to struggle), followed by Kinondo Kwetu.
With an outside chance of making it (needs at least additional 5 to defect), Annual Invictus has the stat-profile to raise some eyebrows at 100/1 if the ground dried up to GS.
Possible further GN defectors include topweight Conflated and the GN weights would rise 1lb if he opts for the Bowl.
After a meaningfully wet Mon night into Tuesday and possible showers into Wed, the rest of the week looks dry, with the threat of rain on Saturday receding though not nil. Best guess for the GN: Soft (GS places)
I will be all over Empire Steel like a nasty rash if/when it is in the final decs for the Topham!
Comments
Interesting.
10 yo is these days a bit long in the tooth BUT not if it's Soft (13 yos made first 3 in both of the last 2 GNs run on Soft - 2016 & 2018, when a 10 yo nearly won it).
IMHO, his run in last year's Scot Nat was a lot better than the bare 8th 17L suggests, especially on quick ground. Handy all the way, right in the mix 2 out and he got gobbled up by the fast-finishers rather than failing to see out the trip (at least to my eyes - jockey steadying him at the last made it look that way but he ran through the line well enough). And the form of the race looks decent.
Will be off the same 145 at Aintree and on soft, there won't be many showing a turn of foot at the business end.
Although more used to small fields and, as you say Kelso, that run at Ayr had 17 in opposition. They don't take prisoners in that race so I'd have no great concern about mixing it with 33 at Aintree. Decent jumping record and will have a GN-winning pilot of course.
Not long ago had wind surgery and won as fav on comeback (2nd won next outing) - possible bounce? who knows?
Damside of the pedigree hints at the trip being in range:
From family of Saphir Du Rheu, who was fancied enough to be sent off 16/1 in the 2017 GN (Fell 11th in mid div so who knows?).
Damsire Turgeon has had 9 offspring (as DS) run 13 times at 4m+. 0 winners but 3 of them have placed a total of 4 times (so, a respectable 31% frame-making rate) and they include Vanillier's GN near-miss last year (he obviously wasn't stopping). Only 1 other run in GN (mud-lover Lord Du Mesnil, who had ground against in 2021).
Linebred to Mill Reef, as was One For Arthur (who had a shed load of other Pedigree Pluses), Balko Des Flos and dear old Swing Bill.
FWIW, not a bad rating according to my model. 3 test-fails on Soft (4 on GS) with 1 Pedigree Plus, makes him "bold show no cigar" on Soft but these are fine margins and misfortune (for others?) more likely on such ground.
At 100s could be tempted to join you (with an "extracurricular Fiver") , though touch and go that he makes the cut and, if it's Soft ground, they might just opt for the Topham anyway - may depend how it looks after Monday's Confirmations.
Nice spot though.
PS Unsurprisingly, Kitty's Light is one of many GN entries also to have Scot Nat and Bet365 entries. In his case, it also wouldn't surprise me if connections give Aintree the swerve if it is Soft ground, even if the chance may never come again. We'll always have Ayr!
PRICE ALERT
If you're a value-seeker, like me, you might be considering ROI MAGE at least to place if the ground is Soft or worse. If so, you might like to know that Bet365 have pushed him out to 80/1.
I reckon Bob's taking the piss actually.
Elsewhere the best-price with bookies is 66/1 (but many have cut to 50s) & Betfair Exchange 70. PP is as low as 40/1.
There was a piece in the RP today about his smoother prep this season compared to last, when 7th 14L behind Corach Rambler on less favourable ground than is likely this time.
He travelled beautifully, handy all the way until outdone for gears and jumped the fences like a horse that was having a ball and would love to go round again.
True he's now 12 years old but I'll repeat points made above:
- on his preferred Soft or worse ground, older horses do well in GNs (13 year olds [both picked out by my model
] came home 3rd in the last 2 GNs on Soft in 2016 and Heavy in 2018) - his record in 42 chases and 13 hurdles in Brit, Ire and Fr is: completions 52, BD 1, F 2 - a (96% completion rate ex the BD, making the frame in 53% of them)
- Corach's mark is +13lbs on last year, his is the same OR147 (carrying the same as or 1lb less than last year's 10.08)
- unlike last year, he'll have on board preferred jockey James Reveley (who rode him to win a 27f Listed Chase in France in November on Heavy - "won going away")
- damsire Nikos (sire of GN 2nd Encore Un Peu and damsire of Houblon Des Obeaux - both mud-lovers) and damsire 2 Cadoudal (damsire of GN 3rd My Will) are key components in his pedigree that suggest he'd see out the trip on testing ground just as well as he did last time on GS.
He went off 33/1 last year and, if we're looking at slower ground this time, 80/1 is extreme e/w value IMHO, though if you can't see him winning, a Top 5 Finish at 10/1 (also Bet365) is similarly attractive if the ground is Soft or worse, especially with 6 fewer opponents lining up this time.Meanwhile, the RP article tipping Nassalam, I Am Maximus, Mr Incredible and Galia Des Liteaux as 4 that would relish testing ground has had an immediate effect on the market:
Nassalam now 25/1
I Am Maximus 8/1
Mr Incredible 16/1
Galia Des Liteaux 40/1
I completely agree and it's a great shame with the ground looking as it does.
There are many reasons why owners send their best horses to Ireland but the crassness of our handicapper is one of them.
Even if a 16lb rise was understandable as a knee-jerk response to the manner of his Welsh GN win, despite clear evidence subsequently that he beat very little that day and that, as demonstrated in the GC, he himself is not a 161 horse, he's failed to drop his mark even today.
But I would argue, the considered response to that impressive win by a 6 yo would have been say a 10lb rise, allowing him a chance to win again, though hardly making him a shoo-in.
He should not but, more to the point, I would venture to suggest the Irish handicapper would not have put a 6 year old up that amount.
It seems to me the British handicapper's policy is to put classy, young horses immediately they show talent up to marks that are positively designed to stop 90%+ of them winning again and it's just plain unfair on owners.
Very few of them are Denmans.
And, for sure, when it's clear they're not, he'll never slash them even half as quick as he hiked them.
Give the owners a break FFS.
Bob's bottled it and cut him back to 66/1
"I think the whole atmosphere and big field helps him put his best foot forward.”
Mullins admits variety is key in keeping the quirky chaser on side.
“Teachers might have one maverick child in their class and that’s him," he said. "He keeps us all on our toes and keeps us thinking. He has his own way of doing things – he’s very kind in his box, but sometimes he just doesn’t feel like exercising. You have to keep changing things around to keep him interested, but he’s been on his best behaviour since Christmas.
“He probably does half the work of the other horses. He doesn’t go to the gallop every day and does a lot of walking and lunging – he doesn’t do the same thing two days in a row. He must have a huge engine in there and we’re doing our best to get it out of him.”
“He looked like he really enjoyed the National course last year so the plan has been to go back there,” said Patrick Mullins.
“It was a fabulous comeback run at Uttoxeter ..... and I get a lot of pleasure out of seeing him run well having known the time and effort that goes into him.
“He gets in off a winnable weight under 11st, we know he stays, soft ground is no problem to him and he jumps very well."
BTW, his sire Westerner has a well-above-average 36% win and place rate in races over 29f+ on heavy ground. I'm very glad to have the outsized pozzy on him at 33s.
Mullins neatly sums up the potential but vulnerability of I Am Maximus as well:
“I Am Maximus has to have a huge chance. He’s an awkward jumper at times, and you do wonder how he will take to the track, but if he takes to the fences he definitely has the ability to make his presence felt."
The thought of the way he ran in the Irish GN and his jumping does give me the heeby-jeebies.
As the model's top-rated selection, I'm very happy to be on him at 25s e/w but his current price is way too short for the risk IMHO, though I guess as something of a shit or bust runner (like the very unfortunate Synchronised was in 2012) 8s still works as a Win only bet.
Reluctantly, I'm inclined to cash out Kitty's Light if it continues to look like it will be Soft. He's a different horse and a top contender on a sound surface but, if it's Soft, I really think they should give Aintree the swerve in favour of Ayr and maybe Sandown again - he's young enough to come back another day.
Taking a close look at Malina Girl 66/1 (10/1 for Top 5 Finish) as another interesting outsider on Soft. And another mare !!
Aside from some trading on Betfair at modest profit on Kitty's Light and Galia Des Liteaux, it's enabled me to perform a lot of surgery on my GN slip and make a series of tactical bets, as the going looks more and more likely to be atypical Soft and in light of uncertainty about the cut.
Cheers Bob et al.
I'm holding off on cashing out Kitty's Light but, unless it looks like much drier weather than currently forecast is in store next week, I'll do so before Monday.
The promise of Soft ground or worse provides (often only briefly) the sort of price anomalies that value-seekers dream of.
Anticipating that ground, I've added another tactical Top 5 Finish at 10/1 NRNB to my already eclectic book of interests in another mud-lover (and another mare!!) at the bottom of the weights, MALINA GIRL, top-price 66/1 e/w, if preferred (I'm content with the Top 5). Like Limerick Lace, she's trained by the astute Gavin Cromwell and though she's not guaranteed a run yet, she needs only 4 to come out above her to be sure of one (possibly only 3, depending on ballot or Empire Steel's target). If she makes the cut, she'll carry at most 10.06.
Winner of last April's 3.5m Ulster National on Soft (a race won by Pineau De Re a year before his GN triumph in 2014), she now does much of her racing this side of the Puddle and stormed home up the Hill on Soft in the autumn 3.5m Class 1 chase at Cheltenham - a race in which Don't Push It was close 2nd prior to winning the 2010 GN (Hello Bud was 3rd and 5th respectively - the then model picked both). Alvarado won it in the 2013/4 season before the first of his 2 GN4ths.
She probably didn't beat much that day but finished so strongly (reminiscent of Nassalam's Welsh GN win!) she was put up 11lbs to OR146 (if she makes the cut, she'll be off 145 in the GN). While superficially her record since looks like the rise has shackled her, in fact her next outing suggests otherwise. She was running a blinder off the new mark over 26f on Soft against some quality opposition (including Threeunderthrufive and subsequent Ryanair winner Protektorat), looking highly likely to be in the mix but for knuckling on landing and falling 3 out (that wretched downhill fence at Prestbury!).
The form of that race is good (2 wins and 2 near-misses from 7 subsequent runs by the first 4 home) and implies she's competitive off her current mark. Though the fall seemed to unnerve her, disappointing as topweight next run in the Warwick National (well behind Galia Des Liteaux), she jumped much better when 2nd in a Mares Chase next time (GDL behind this time). Last outing over hurdles at an inadequate 20f can be ignored - she ran well enough but isn't as good over the floppies (one of her 3 GN test fails).
She'll be seeing the GN fences for the first time but, if she takes to them, with repeat form at 28f on the ground, she could deliver a big surprise, albeit probably as frame-maker rather than victor.
While not stellar from a GN perspective, her pedigree strongly suggests 34f is in range on her ground and has a couple of components in common with Gilgamboa (GN 4th on Soft in 2016):
- Shares her sire Malinas with Mighty Thunder (x2 winner over 4m+, including a Scottish National and, on Soft, an Edinburgh National, and near-misser in the 34f Midlands National)
- Damsire Westerner, as a sire, has a 36% frame-making rate when his offspring have run at 29f+ on heavy ground and sired Gilgamboa (GN 4th on Soft in 2016) and Mr Incredible, who certainly saw out the Mid Nat trip over 34f
- 2nd Damsire Be My Native was also Damsire of Gilgamboa and GN close 2nd Black Apalachi (also top stayer Native River)
- 3rd Damsire Strong Gale, while no winners, has a litany of near-missing GN connections as Damsire of Cappa Bleu (GN2nd and 4th), Teaforthree (GN 3rd), Shutthefrontdoor (GN 5th) and 2nd Damsire of The Last Samuri (GN 2nd) and Rathvinden (GN 3rd)
- She's also distantly related to Santini (GN 4th)
She absolutely needs Soft ground, finding last year's Scottish National too hot to handle on quick ground, but courtesy of the weather it's shaping up to be the best opportunity for a mare to win a GN since the last winner in 1951 and for more than 1 to figure prominently.3 of them on my probable final betting slip!
Going Map for Aintree as at 10.48am 5 April:
National course is Soft but Heavy for about 4~5 furlongs, between 7th (Foinavon), through Canal Turn, to 12th fence
https://api.turftrax.co.uk/maps/going-reports/262463_waypoints.svg
Forecast is broadly better, warming up a touch but showers and windy from time to time.
On that basis, going should improve a little and I'd guess most likely going for GN = Soft (GS places) or at very best GS (Soft places)
But course will be vulnerable to late rain and meaningful (heavy or persistent) showers on the day of the race could quickly turn it Heavy in places or even all over.
Gavin Cromwell reports:
"We have the three for the National ....
Vanillier doesn't want it that soft, I know he's slow but he improves for a little bit of spring ground.
Limerick Lace wouldn't want too much heavy in it either to stay that trip and Malina Girl would be in the same boat."
Cheers @Addick Addict
Got to be ground concerns presumably, and rightly so.
His stats show that his #1 need is for decent ground, even more than a trip:
- Unplaced in all 6 chases on Soft and 1 on Hvy (all 24~25f)
- To make like-for-like comparison, in his 6 chases at 24~25f on GS or quicker, his record is: 2 wins (33%) and 2 places (67% frame-making).
- In all 19 chases on GS or better (20~33.5f), his record is 7 wins (37%), including over shortest 20f and furthest 33.5f, and 8 places (79%), runner-up in 5 including over 21f and 32f.
If he were indifferent to ground and just wanted a test of stamina, his 24~25f stats would favour Soft. It's patently not the case.And this is consistent with the stats at 24f+ for all progeny of his sire Nathaniel, stripping out Kitty's Light's numbers, which in a reasonable sample size also show a bias to decent ground (though less pronounced).
Don't know when this interview was done but no indication of any doubts about the going from Christian Williams. Sounds like if he makes the top 34 he'll run.
But he won't be carrying my shillings if it looks odds-on to be Soft.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/festivals/grand-national-festival/what-he-brought-to-the-family-was-incredible-christian-williams-has-faith-in-very-special-kittys-light-for-grand-national-aqZKV1g1RqDh/
Hope you had a better result than we did on the Sunday
There's been a fair bit of trading on KL. Been in and out a bit myself.
I trade around positions I have in horses I fancy. Best profits I made were trading Delta Work at times (if memory serves) > 100s on Betfair for the GN prior to his first XC win in 2022, for which he was favourite to beat Tiger. Insane price anomaly but I was backing him for the GN any way. Ended up with a nice profit and a free position for a windfall win, though sadly only the e/w ticket paid off.
I don’t fancy Minella Indo at all so don’t have a feel for a fair price or an interest in following the price trends but I completely get he’ll shorten if/when Rachel picks him.
I suspect the news probably is in the market though, or should be if we’re pretty certain of it. May not be as much juice as one might imagine.
If the price were to shorten dramatically I’d see it as a laying opportunity, if that were my game (it hasn't been since I forfeited my place profit having laid Ballabriggs in 2011 - hmm).
Has she been confirmed as the rider?
Not confirmed but, with Ain't That A Shame bought by amateur jockey David Maxwell, the de Bromhead alternative is only Eklat De Rire and, given Minella Indo's CV, I'd have thought it unlikely she'd ride for another trainer, though she could.
I'd have thought her steering Minella was 90% in the price.
Going update this morning from Aintree -
NATIONAL Course unchanged: Soft (Heavy 7th~12th fences).
Consensus forecast seems to be sunny, dry and windy today, sunny, windy and showery tomorrow.
BUT meaningful rain Mon night into Tues. If there's any drying out before then, given the high water table, that would probably put us back to square 1.
Rest of the week, it seems to be drier, particularly Thurs and Friday but some say Saturday will also be dry, others showing 50~80% chance of light rain from 8am through and during the GN.
Still impossible to call but, at best, it's surely going to be slower than last year (mix of GS and Soft) and, at worst, if that rain comes on raceday, get the wellies on!!
Few GN runners start at 66/1+ without cause and, in many cases, it's fully justified.
But sometimes what deters backers is not a horse obviously out of its depth but a single factor in its CV which, however superficially worrying, might just turn out to be a red herring. If so, those with some redeeming quality and/or other credentials can produce a big shock.
100/1 Mon Mome (aided by rain-softened ground) is a classic example. Having previously placed x3 at 28f+ on Soft & Heavy, he'd disappointed 3 times that season at such trips and finished 10th in the previous GN. But those that looked closer recognised he'd had an injury-delayed start to that first GN season and the run had given him a sighter of the fences, which he'd handled well.
66/1 Aurora's Encore is another. A Scot Nat near-misser a year earlier and spring ground lover, who'd had an abysmal season hitherto on soft, which had nicely dropped his mark but meant nothing as regards his chance back on a sound surface.
So too two 100/1 shots, Vics Canvas 3rd in 2016 (a 13 yo yes, but still a 2nd season chaser with form over the fences and at 29f) and Balko Des Flos 2nd in 2021 (winless for 3 years and UR last time out in the XC). Both had GN-starred pedigrees, though Balko's sadly eluded me until it was too late!
Shocks can and do happen in a GN and soft or heavy ground is often the catalyst.
So how about the 2024 GN?
I've already highlighted a couple at 66/1+ with under-estimated but serious chances of making the frame on slow ground: Roi Mage (one of my model's Place selections) and Malina Girl (borderline Place selection by the model). But there's another, of similarly-borderline Place calibre in the model's ratings, which is certainly speculative but IMHO on Soft ground has the potential to cause a major shock.FAROUK D'ALENE (66/1, 100s on Betfair)
Don't fall for the cursory view, typified by Coral's sketch of GN runners, "talented but has a history of falls".
FF5 in his last 3 chases certainly looks scary and is no doubt the reason punters have written him off as a contender, but I strongly recommend taking the trouble to have a closer look.
That first F was his first failure to complete in 9 runs over obstacles. It came 2 out when travelling strongly, challenging the leader and eventual winner L'Homme Presse in the 2022 Brown Advisory on Soft and was an unfortunate slow-motion fall, brushing through the top of the fence, causing him to be unable to get the landing gear down surely on the wet surface. He was travelling so strongly at the time that, despite still being more than a furlong from home, the Racing Post had no doubt he'd have finished close and awarded him the joint 2nd highest RPR for the level-weights race, 4lbs behind the winner. That was a career-high RPR162 and notably, from a stats' perspective, 8lbs higher than his GNOR 154.
Prior to that fall, his 4 runs in all disciplines at 23f+ had yielded 3 wins and a 1.25L 2nd but, sadly injured in the incident, he was then off the track for 613 days.
His comeback (and big handicap debut, in November's Troytown) was abruptly halted by another fall, at the first fence having been held up at the rear under a claimer and possibly unsighted. But 11 days later he travelled well and negotiated Thurles' fences confidently enough to finish 5th behind Classic Getaway (ahead of Capodanno) over an inadequate 22f on Yielding - not a bad effort for effectively his first run for over 20 months.
He followed up with a staying-on close 2nd over hurdles (3m on heavy), qualifying him for the Pertemps Final in which, running off a 9lb higher mark, he raced enthusiastically on ground more like GS than the official Soft, handy until outpaced 3 out (late PU) - the only occasion, other than the 2 Falls, on which he's failed to finish 1st or 2nd in 8 runs at 23~25f.
He's never raced beyond 25f but it's perhaps interesting that, despite the testing ground, he was scratched from the Irish GN by Elliott in favour of a tilt over 5 furlongs further at Aintree and, while his pedigree has some obscure components, it does provide reason to believe 4m may well be within range as he's related to Arpege D'alene (6L behind Tiger Roll in the 4m NH Chase at the 2017 Festival).
But surely, if a horse is a dodgy jumper, aren't those GN fences going to find them out?
Well, it may be counterintuitive but unblemished jumping records are not the hallmark of every GN winner. Pineau De Re had fallen at the 8th in the Becher Chase (his debut over the fences) 4 months before his 2014 victory and, even over the bigger fences of yesteryear, 2 notoriously fallible jumpers, Rough Quest and Red Marauder, won a GN (albeit that the latter was assisted by savagely-depleted opposition).
Tiger Roll was never considered the best of jumpers and, having won his first GN on more forgiving Heavy, both he and Magic Of Light managed to take large sections of fences with them en route to their 1-2 in 2019.
The fact is, the fences are much more forgiving than they once were. Moreover, Soft ground means slower ground and, providing the horse likes to get its toe in, as FDA does, it also means relatively less pressure on jumping.
OK, so he could jump round but why might he be in the mix?
On a positive note, FDA ticks some key boxes:
Of course, we can't know how he'll take to the fences and he could come a cropper. But that's why the market prices him 66 and bigger.
If he's still standing and within range heading out on the 2nd circuit, he's got many components of the stat-profile required to be a frame-maker ....... or perhaps even ......!!
If it's soft ground, I'm definitely having a shilling on him at the price. So my alternative betting slips are now:
ANY GOING:
- I Am Maximus 25/1
- Mr Incredible 33/1
- Limerick Lace 25/1
- Galia Des Liteaux 50/1
- Glengouly 50/ - might yet cash out or switch to Top 5 Finish only
- Roi Mage (win at 80/1, top 5 at 12/1 & top 10 at 5/1)
ON GS only (otherwise cashed out or hedged):- Kitty's Light 25/1
ON SOFT or worse only (otherwise cashed out & positions sold):Stopped after 2.5 hours.
Confirmations for Friday's Topham relevant to the GN are:
Fury Road
The Goffer
Mac Tottie
Empire Steel
Fantastic Lady
Shakem Up'Arry
Notably, the Mullins' pair Adamantly Chosen and Glengouly have been scratched from the Topham and presumably will run in the GN.
They may still be keeping their options open, dependent on the weather, but if the 3 of these confirmed Topham runners in bold (now top 34 in the weights) all defect from the GN, and with Classic Getaway and Bronn known GN defectors at tomorrow's Confirmations, Chambard, Kitty's Light and Malina Girl (on OR145) will be guaranteed a run next Saturday.
Next in line would be Desertmore House (impressive Kerry National winner, for the same connections as Numbersixvalverde and ordinarily capable of a big run, but Martin Brassil's yard continues to struggle), followed by Kinondo Kwetu.
With an outside chance of making it (needs at least additional 5 to defect), Annual Invictus has the stat-profile to raise some eyebrows at 100/1 if the ground dried up to GS.
Possible further GN defectors include topweight Conflated and the GN weights would rise 1lb if he opts for the Bowl.
After a meaningfully wet Mon night into Tuesday and possible showers into Wed, the rest of the week looks dry, with the threat of rain on Saturday receding though not nil.
Best guess for the GN: Soft (GS places)
Catch is it's antepost so stake is gone if he isn't declared but, at the price, I'm happy to take that chance and up my upside.