The cut is now in the GNOR146s. According to my reckoning, 2 of Glengouly, Galia des Liteaux and Panda Boy are definitely "in" (to be decided if necessary, I think, by ballot as all are currently still OR146). Kitty's Light needs 4 more to come out from above him to be guaranteed a run (2 might just be enough) and he's probably reliant on some or all of those being Elliott and/or Mullins runners.
Possible additional defections of horses above Kittys Light. In my view, at least 4 of these (in bold) should
not be lining up for this GN:
Irish GNentries (to be run 12 days before the Aintree GN):
Farouk D'alene (Elliott)
Favori De Champdou (Elliott)
Bear in
mind, Elliott ran Bless The Wings to be 3rd in the GN 12 days after he PU'd on
testing ground in the Irish GN, so we can't assume anything, particularly if one or both depart early at Fairyhouse.
Topham entries:
Classic Getaway (Mullins) - record at 24~26f Under Rules:
PU / unplaced 15L / unplaced 21L
Fury Road (Elliott) - record >25f:
unplaced 55L+ / unplaced 69L / F 2nd in last GN
Mac Tottie (Bowen) - great record at 21f
over the GN fences so entered to run but probably going-dependent; no
wins in 9 attempts at 24f+, PU in furthest (Welsh GN)
Adamantly Chosen (Mullins) - best run to
date at furthest trip, owner's sole entry, I suspect will run in the GN
(family has lots of staying credentials)
The Goffer (Elliott) - will patently not get
the trip
Question about fitness/form:
Bronn (Mullins) - poor season, last outing PU before completing a
circuit, barely negotiated first 3 fences
Of course, there may be others I've missed or
niggles that force a defection but, of these 8 possible defections, 4 are Elliott horses and 3 are Mullins'.
And of the entries on OR144~146, Elliott has 0 and Mullins has only Glengouly (146 and virtually assured a run already, though he too has a Topham entry). So, any of theirs that were scratched from the top 34 would lessen their representation.
Next official scratchings, Confirmations on
Monday 8 April.
Bit of a nooby question perhaps but what’s the latest a horse can be taken out and still replaced with another? 24, 48, 72 hours before?
I dislike that it feels that the tactics for such a classic race have become less about the race itself and more about stuffing the entries list with as many horses as possible to block the prospects of others. The rules must be changed to discourage this type of behaviour in future IMO.
What’s the feasibility of having 6-10 reserve runners on the day? Or is there a world in which a maximum OR could be implemented to stop the mass number of what appear to ultimately be junk entries? Latter is far from ideal but maybe a lesser evil than the current situation?
Bit of a nooby question perhaps but what’s the latest a horse can be taken out and still replaced with another? 24, 48, 72 hours before?
I dislike that it feels that the tactics for such a classic race have become less about the race itself and more about stuffing the entries list with as many horses as possible to block the prospects of others. The rules must be changed to discourage this type of behaviour in future IMO.
What’s the feasibility of having 6-10 reserve runners on the day? Or is there a world in which a maximum OR could be implemented to stop the mass number of what appear to ultimately be junk entries? Latter is far from ideal but maybe a lesser evil than the current situation?
At Declarations, which are on Thursday morning 48 hours before the race. No Reserves any more so anything below #34 in the weights at that point definitely misses out. There were 4 Reserves (the next 4 in the weights at Decs) until last year, and they could replace late defector(s) up to the Friday morning. I don't know why they scrapped Reserves tbh.
It's patently become a numbers game to grab as much of the £1m prize money (half of which goes to placed horses) as poss. It's not totally inconceivable that Mullins could fill the first 3 or even more this year, with more than a quarter of the field representing him, including 10/1, 14/1, 20/1, 25/1 and 33/1 shots. In contrast he has 5 remaining entries for the Irish GN. Up to 30 will run and while he has the hot 4/1 fav only 2 others of his are less than 50/1. Whether Elliott or Mullins would run a runner just to maintain force of numbers or, even more cynically, declare and late scratch a runner to keep out a rival, who knows? But both motive and opportunity are clearly there this year.
Maybe there should be some sort of punishment for people who cause problems. This is the second time Hewick has been entered when they never intended to run him.
Don't know why Elliott's are coming out in dribs and drabs but Favori De Champdou also appears to have been scratched despite not appearing in the "17 scratched" announced by the Racing Post earlier. Bloody confusing but the numbers already discounted his departure so Panda Boy still needs 1 more to come out and Kitty's Light 4 more to be guaranteed a run but there's 1 less obvious defection candidate that might oblige.
PS Appears that, in addition to the 17 scratched, Ash Tree Meadow, Salvador Ziggy and Favori De Champdou and a couple of others lower down, all failed to qualify. I'm not unhappy cos, as he's clearly got a problem, I was wanting my stake refunded but I'm scratching my head about Ziggy because he had a 3m chase win and close 2nd in the 3m Kerry National in September on his CV. How the hell does he not qualify but Classic Getaway (unplaced in 2 at 24~26f), does?
I'd overlooked Run Wild Fred as another of Elliott's that runs in Monday's Irish GN but also remains a possible for Aintree (albeit off 5lbs higher mark). Most trainers would think long and hard about running him in both unless he departs early on Monday. He and Farouk D'alene are trained by Elliott and owned by Gigginstown and neither have any runners hovering below the cut, as it currently stands.
2023 Kerry National (Desertmore House +9 [unlikely to make cut], 6L Foxy Jacks +10, 10L The Goffer +2, 10L Chemical Energy +1): 40 runs, 5 wins, 10 places (38%)
2023 Paddy Power Hdcp (Meetingofthewaters +17, 4L Panda Boy +6): 36 runs, 1 win, 6 places (19%)
2024 Warwick National (Classic Chase): (1L Galia Des Liteaux +4): 18 runs, 2 wins, 5 places (39%)
2024 Thyestes (Ain't That A Shame +8, 2L Glengouly +5): 19 runs, 0 wins, 1 place (5%)
Already remarked on the poor form of the Welsh GN but you have to say ditto for other races of relevance:
All of the XCs (last season's Festival and the 2 hdcps this season) look very ordinary indeed, producing only 1 winner and that being "incestuous" - Latenightspass's XC win in December. Yes Galvin ran well in the Boyne Hurdle in Feb but 2nd and 3rd in that race were then well beaten in the Coral Cup. He may also have a small pull at the weights with Latenightpass but both the latter and Foxy Jacks now look high in the weights for the strength of their form. Former GC winner Minella Indo may look tempting to some 16lbs off his career-high mark but IMHO he's got no form over the last 2 years to suggest he shouldn't be lower still these days. Even his last win in October hasn't produced a follow up win in 13 runs. And Delta Work sadly looks like his GN chance has gone.
Similarly, though Meetingofthewaters was a creditable 3rd in the Ultima off his GN mark, the form of December's PP Hdcp is not as strong as it was in previous years. To date, its 1 win from 36 runs (19% frame-making) contrasts poorly both with 4 from 42 runs (38%) prior to Minella Times GN win in 2021 and with 6 wins from 53 (28%) prior to Nobles Yeats' 2022 GN win. Panda Boy has a 6lb pull on Meetingofthewaters based on the PP and an 8L 5th on (seemingly) unfavoured going in a (good quality) Irish GN on his CV. But the form of his close 4th last outing in a 3m Listed Hdcp hurdle, which further shortened his GN price, has to date yielded only 1 place from 7 subsequent runs.
And, casting a long shadow over both Ain't That A Shame (purchased for the spin of a lifetime by amateur jockey David Maxwell) and Glengouly, the Thyestes is beginning to look rank, though 3rd Angel's Dawn was a late faller when challenging in the Kim Muir (would certainly not have won it though).
With my 5 tactical e/w bets (Glengouly, Galia Des Liteaux, Limerick Lace, Adamantly Chosen and Chemical Energy) needing pruning, I'm giving some serious further thought to team selection beyond the top 3 (I Am Maximus, Mr Incredible and Kitty's Light).
The 1st of my 5 e/w candidates to join the top 3, confirmed on my slip for 13th April is LIMERICK LACE.
Her CV and pedigree pluses are already set out above but the form of her close 2nd in the Troytown behind Coko Beach (who ran a blinder off 9lbs higher mark next outing when 2nd, conceding 22lbs to the winner in the Becher) looks solid and suggests to me that 1 of her 3 test fails (just sub-threshold 3m+ RPR 147, awarded for that run) is questionable.
Like Minella Times, her 20f+ chase RPR 153 does meet the GNOR+5 and absolute 148+ stat-thresholds of the model and her 3m+ chase win/near-miss record (1/1) is 100% (MT's was 2/2). Both were/are 2nd season chasers unexposed >24f and potentially highly progressive over a trip. One has to use common sense in using stats, especially for youngsters, and this is a logically tweakable stat-test for such promising chasers down the weights. If I were to make that tweak, she'd rate solidly as a Strong Place candidate by my model's methodology and 4th best-rated in the field.
But also I've been looking closer at the (offspring) record at 4m+ of the sire and damsires 1~3 of all my e/w candidates. Unusually, she has a "full house" in terms of supporting her staying potential:
Sire, Walk In The Park, as mentioned above, has had 1 runner at 4m+ (Walk In The Mill) who placed 4th ("stayed on gamely") in the 2019 GN. The tiniest possible sample of course but nonetheless a 100% frame-making record to date. What's more, the record of his progeny in Graded events (all distances) is materially superior when the Dams are French-bred. Mixing his principally Irish-bred genealogy with quality French mares and damsires seems to produce electricity. That's the complexion of Limerick Lace's female line, which brings us on to her Damsires, all of whom have produced winners or near-missers at 4m+:
Califet, a tough and prolific-winner at 12f, his offspring as a damsire are only just coming to maturity and Limerick Lace will be the first to try a marathon trip but he already has 7 with 33%+ win rates in all runs Under Rules (LL herself is 41%). As a sire, he's had 2 sons attempt the trip - Eclair Surf (2L 2nd staying on behind the redoutable Win My Wings in the Eider, sadly fatally injured in a GN) and Beauport, recent winner of the 34f Midlands National. Again a tiny sample but to date a 67% win/near-miss record at 4m+.
DS2 Video Rock, has plenty of offspring as Damsire who've shown form at 4m+, most notably in GNs Saint Are (2L 2nd to Many Clouds and 3rd to One For Arthur) and Delta Work (3rd in 2022) and he sired Nine De Sivola (close 2nd in a Scottish National). As Sire and DS, the frame-making rate for his 14 runners at 4m+ is a solid 26%.
DS3 Le Pontet was damsire of Ladalko, a Warwick National winner and beaten only by a Short Head in a Scottish GN. Le P's offspring's frame-making record at 4m+ is 33%.
So, the pedigree ingredients appear to be there for her to shine at the GN trip and I'm more than happy with her at 25/1 as the 4th selection on my team, which now comprises:
I Am Maximus 25/1 e/w Mr Incredible 33/1 e/w (outsized stake) Kitty's Light 25/1 e/w Limerick Lace 25/1 e/w (cashed out breakeven 20s with Bet365 and reninvested at 25s with WH)
In the vain hope of filling all 5 paying places, when going conditions and final race intentions maybe a bit clearer, I'll select one more from Adamantly Chosen (33/1), Chemical Energy (25/1), Glengouly (50/1) and Galia des Liteaux (50/1) to keep and cash out the rest.
Looks like I missed the boat on the decent prices. 8-1 for Maximum now reduces the attraction to jump on/ Mr I @ 20-1 probably better value. Good luck Peanuts and followers. This is still the most anticipated thread each year.
I'm just hoping that Mr Incredible repeats the exploits of my favourite ever National horse, West Tip (probably jointly with Party Politics) - fell at Becher's when going really well (as opposed to Mr Incredible unluckily unseating at the Canal Turn) but who followed it up by winning the following year.
There are also similarities in terms of their weights (struggling to find the marks of West Tip for the two years in question):
West Tip - 10st 1lb in 1985 and 10st 11lb in 1986 Mr Incredible - 10st 4lb in 2023 and 10st 10lb in 2024
The GN is a race full of coincidences but also horses that consistently do well in the race - the likes of Red Rum, Tiger Roll, Party Politics and even West Tip who followed his win up with finishes of 4th, 4th, 2nd and 10th - given that Mr Incredible is still just 8 it remains to be seen what happens this year and in years to come but if there is a race that might appeal to the quirkiness of the horse then it is the GN.
Anyway, I'm all in. In addition to the ante post bets, I will be incorporating the horse in forecasts, tricasts, you name it. Should I clean up I will, of course, take all the glory in impressing the wife and my sons with my knowledge of horse racing. If it loses I will blame Peanuts!
Just a meteorological heads-up. Forecast (Accuweather) is worsening for GN week on Merseyside. In the 14 days prior to the big day, there is rain forecast on all but 3 days, with 35mm+ across the Mon, Tues and Wed immediately before the meeting. And rain knocking about on race day itself. Obviously, forecasts change quickly but if that proves correct, we could be looking at the slowest ground since 2018 and perhaps another Soft-ground GN.
Decided to give Adamantly Chosen at 33/1 the heave-ho from my "possibles" list this morning and cashed-out at breakeven. He's got an impressive list of stayers at the 29f range for relatives but his own CV, making him borderline Place Potential by my model's reckoning, is totally reliant on his recent 26f Chase win at Down Royal. That did impress the eye (and the market) but, while he beat a C&D winner and last season's GN 7th, Roi Mage is now a 12 yo and, realistically, the other 3 runners (including Classic Getaway, who predictably didn't get the trip) were never likely to land much of a blow.
Can never be sure how long Bob will make the cash-out facility available (I'm hoping/assuming until Confirmations) and, as I've concluded that whatever the ground he won't make my team, it makes sense to recoup the stake.
Ive got Bluelight Bay running at Kempton on Monday. Eve’s horses are running well and he’s strengthened up over the winter. I guess he will probably need the run but I’d be hopeful. If he stays fit the optimistic plan is the Spring Cup at Newbury followed by the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot.
As anticipated, Classic Getaway and Bronn (phew!) both taken out of the GN line up.
So, Panda Boy is IN. As is (I believe) Eklat De Rire. Chambard and Kitty's Light (both on current OR 145) next up, to be decided by ballot if only 1 more above them defects. If 2+ defect, Kitty's definitely makes the cut.
Above him in the GN weights, both Farouk D'alene and Run Wild Fred have been taken out of Monday's Irish GN. Presumably Elliott is determined to run them at Aintree, though Farouk D’alene arguably shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near the GN fences. Interestingly, Desertmore House (cut to 40s in the GN betting and who needs 5 to come out of the GN weights above him) has also been taken out of Fairyhouse, perhaps for ground reasons and/or because Martin Brassil’s figuring/hoping there is a chance of him joining Panda Boy.
Still with Topham entries but guaranteed a GN run:
Fury Road (Elliott) Mac Tottie (Bowen) Adamantly Chosen (Mullins) The Goffer (Elliott) Glengouly (Mullins but he and owner have another entered for the Topham)
A reminder, neither Elliott nor Mullins have any GN entries below the existing cut until Ontheropes on OR143 for the latter (also with a Topham entry) who now needs an unlikely 9 to come out above him to get a run in the GN.
Got say, it looks like the allure of the Aintree honeypot has hit the Irish GN hard this year. Only 21 declared for the race, it will be the smallest field (even without late NRs) for 22 years.
Nick Rockett is Mullins main hope for scooping the Euro270k first prize and he's worthy fav. But 11.10 is a lot to carry in an Irish GN on heavy. He is related to the mare Maid Of Money, who carried 11.06 to win it in 1989 but at 4/1 I'll look elsewhere for an interest.
We know from last year how few finishers there can be, even with a near full-field, in an Irish GN when it's testing. In the likely similar conditions, I'm plump for the proven stamina and, albeit modest, e/w value represented by:
YEAH MAN (10/1) Nice pedigree (same sire & damsire combo as Mr Incredible) and the form of his comfortable Haydock GN Trial win [+7lbs tomorrow] franked by My Silver Lining going close in the Midlands Nat [off +4lbs]). Has 11.04 on his back but at least that permits Keith Donoghue back on board. WHERE IT ALL BEGAN (14/1) Again nice staying pedigree (half brother to Rathvinden), 16L winner of the Irish GN Trial, followed up by placing in the Kim Muir off +12lbs (same mark on Monday). Jack Kennedy back on board (10.13).
Bit boring but I'll add one more if I can sniff out some serious e/w value.
This Irish GN has no depth in terms of quality and there's bugger all that piques an interest at a tasty price. At 40/1 there's a smidge of e/w value IMHO in STREET VALUE, course and distance winner (December's Porterstown) on Soft. Those will be my 3.
Revisiting a stat about the record of GN runners lining up without a run for more than 140 days. Since 2013, 6 have done so. All had good or encouraging records after a 50 day+ break:
2013 Balthazar King 141 days (chase record after 50+ day breaks: 11111) - 15th 91L "made most to 7th, left in lead after 16th (water), headed 18th, weakening when hit 20th". i.e. ran well but ran out of gas but we found out how well he could do the following year (2nd) following a 24 day break after winning a hard XC at the Festival
2013 Lost Glory 175 (chase record after 50+ day break: 11) - PU
2015 Balthazar King 148 (chase record after 50+ day break: 11111011F11) - Fell 6th
2015 Shutthefrontdoor 152 (NH record after 50+ day break: 13[3.5L]16[3L]1 - 5th 13L "tracked leaders, left close 3rd 5 out, chased winner next, faded last, lost 2 places last 100yds" - i.e. ran well but ran out of gas
2017 Drop Out Joe 286 (chase & hurdles record after 50+ day break: 112151) - PU
2021 Discorama 146 (NH record after 50+ day break: 11F23 [both places <4L and the F was at the last when disputing the lead] - 7th 45L "held up in rear, midfield 6th, mistake 8th, steady headway from 18th, disputing fourth 22nd, ridden before 2 out, weakened approaching last", i.e. ran well but ran out of gas
Off GNOR148 Chemical Energy is very tempting and indeed he's one of my tactical e/w bets to cater for others missing the cut. His solitary run this season, beaten 10L in a Kerry National with decent form, was a nice pipe-opener and, if it weren't for his 1 race campaign and 206 day break, the model would rate him a serious contender on his preferred decent ground and he'd be in the team.
But his record after 50+ day breaks over hurdles and fences is: 12814[31L]6. OK but not indicating an advantage from lay-offs, which have averaged 126 days.
And the fact is that GN stats favour those that have had a 3+ race campaign, finishing preferably not more than 49 days (7 wks) but in any event no more than 84 (12 wks) prior. He will not have run for almost 30 weeks.
You can fail one or other but both is a stretch and while he could/should put in a bold show for a long way, especially if the ground is decent, the light campaign and long lay off tips him into the "likely to run out of gas" camp, according to my model's reckoning.
Even as a good-ground standby in the event Kitty's Light doesn't make the cut, on reflection at 25/1 he doesn't cut the mustard for my team and I've cashed out at breakeven.
Just caught up with a recent piece in the Irish Field, reporting that Elliott confirms Chemical Energy, Coko Beach, Delta Work, Farouk D’Alene, Fury Road (also with a Topham entry), Galvin, Minella Crooner and The Goffer (also a Topham entry) are all on target for the GN and that Conflated is 50-50 to run in the National or The Bowl. No mention of Run Wild Fred. Always need to take Elliott’s comments about intentions with a large pinch of salt but if Conflated is scratched weights will rise another 1lb. And if he and Fred are both scratched, that would guarantee Kitty’s Light a run.
Other 2 obvious (100/1) candidates that could be scratched - Janidil and Eldorado Allen who PU'd with a breathing problem in the Ultima despite a recent wind op.
With key variables bar the going pretty much set, and a possible further 1lb rise in weights of little consequence to my model's calculations, a rundown on its final ratings for the 2024 GN.
Please note, this is not a prediction of finishing order. Rather, the model's ratings represent the POTENTIALfor each runner, based on their CV and pedigree and assuming they get
their preferred going.
Nonetheless the list does represent the order in which, if you wished to back its selections, I would add them to a betting slip, depending on your risk/return target. Certain going preferences are material and mutually exclusive - e.g. IMHO we're unlikely to see I Am Maximus head-to-head with Kitty's Light at the line - but at least it makes for a "hedged" book of winning candidates when the weather is so changeable:
Winning Potential (0~5L):
I Am Maximus now 9/1 - the more soft there is the better, handles GS but could be vulnerable to falling too far
behind and traffic problems on quicker GS (looky-likey, particularly on pedigree = Tiger Roll)
Mr Incredible20/1 - the
softer it is, the stronger his chance but he handles and travels on any ground (on profile = Rathvinden)
Kitty's Light16/1 - the better the ground, the better his chance (= Auroras Encore) [needs 2 more above him to defect to be certain of a run]
Next Best / Strong
Place Potential (0~10L):
Limerick Lace25/1 - handles
any ground but, as an unexposed 7yo, the better the ground the less
uncertainty stamina-wise (= Minella Times)
Selections by means of a stats-model are inevitably based on fine margins and it’s hardly a surprise that my model agrees with the market that Corach Rambler, Noble Yeats and Vanillier are all capable of strong runs again.
Similarly, debutants Chemical Energy,Adamantly Chosen, Meetingofthewaters and, though his yard needs to find some form and quickly, Panda Boy all have the profiles to be in the mix crossing the Melling Road second time and it wouldn't represent a shock to the model's methodology for any of the 7 above to grab a place.
But all have 1 too many blemishes in their stats to rank among those it rates as having the best potential to win it and, when it comes to seeking returns from the paying places, there are others with at least as good profile-fits with previous frame-makers and at much more appealing value:
Place Potential
(10~20L):
Galia Des Liteaux50/1 (10/1 Top 5 Finish NRNB) -the
softer the better, handles GS but lacks gears
Glengouly66/1 (13/2) - handles any ground but GS would be less of a step into the unknown stamina-wise[still has an entry for Friday's Topham]
Roi Mage 66/1 (12/1 Top 5 & 5/1 Top 10 Finish) - handles GS but needs soft to improve on last year's handy all-the-way, one-paced 7th 14L on GS - completion record is strong [96% from 55 races Under Rules, ex 1 BD; 53% frame-making]
To protect my returns profile but add an extra interest, and potentially extra paying places, I've switched and halved my stake in Galia Des Liteaux at breakeven from e/w to a Top 5 Finish at 10/1. I'd do likewise for Glengouly but the prices don't stack up at the moment (maybe they'll look more workable when Betfair's Place market gets going).
Having cashed out my remaining tactical wagers, that's given me the dry powder to add Roi Mage andI've got 2 Place interests in him, one of which I'll cash out before Confirmations, depending on probable going.
Although he's not as much a steal as he was last year to finish Top 10, when some shrewdies had him at 12/1, to do so he now needs to beat 24 rather than 30 opponents and having witnessed how well he ran and took to the fences, IMHO even at 5/1 he's more of a banker for a Top 10 finish off the same mark in this GN than Corach Rambler is at 9/2 to win it off almost a stone more. Not that "banker" and Grand National should ever appear in the same sentence.
So my betting slip now stands as follows (all NRNB), with just a final tweak to the place candidates to make.
I Am Maximus e/w 25/1
Mr Incredible e/w 33/1 [outsized]
Kitty's Light e/w 25/1
Limerick Lace e/w 25/1
Glengouly e/w 50/1
Galia Des Liteaux - Top 5 finish 10/1
Roi Mage - Top 10 finish 5/1 (if GS) & Top 5 finish12/1 (if Soft or worse)
Updated weather forecast: A fair bit of rain to come this week on Merseyside but looking more settled with mix of sun and showers next week. Best guesstimate as to going for the GN: Good-to-Soft (Soft in places) = similar to or slightly slower than last year.
Peanuts i think the going is almost sure to be good to soft. It seems to be rigged.
Absolutely. I'd say "spun" rather than rigged. It’s how it rides that matters but it seems to need to be verging on GF (it'll never be that quick again) or Heavy for them to abandon “Good to Soft” as the primary description. Although last year’s problems weren’t the product of quick ground, I suspect they won’t allow it to ride any quicker this year even if the weather dries up.
Intense Raffles wins the Irish GN and what a run from the old boy Any Second Now in 2nd, just failing to reel him in. Bridesmaid again! Nick Rockett didn't stay, Yeah Man travelled really well but folded down the home straight after smacking one. Where It All Began went OK but was never in range to land a blow. Hey ho - roll on THE National.
Ground described this morning by the racecourse as Soft - Heavy in places on the GN Course.
"The heavy ground is the lower section from Foinavon round to the back of Valentine's," said clerk of the course Sulekha Varma. "The sun is shining right now but the back end of this week has the potential to turn quite wet and the forecasters are saying it will continue to be unsettled. It sounds like we can expect some level of showers most days."
Ground described this morning by the racecourse as Soft - Heavy in places on the GN Course.
"The heavy ground is the lower section from Foinavon round to the back of Valentine's," said clerk of the course Sulekha Varma. "The sun is shining right now but the back end of this week has the potential to turn quite wet and the forecasters are saying it will continue to be unsettled. It sounds like we can expect some level of showers most days."
Perhaps one of those one-paced horses that stay longer than the mother-in-law will triumph at what is currently a massive price.
Comments
The cut is now in the GNOR146s.
According to my reckoning, 2 of Glengouly, Galia des Liteaux and Panda Boy are definitely "in" (to be decided if necessary, I think, by ballot as all are currently still OR146).
Kitty's Light needs 4 more to come out from above him to be guaranteed a run (2 might just be enough) and he's probably reliant on some or all of those being Elliott and/or Mullins runners.
Possible additional defections of horses above Kittys Light. In my view, at least 4 of these (in bold) should not be lining up for this GN:
Irish GN entries (to be run 12 days before the Aintree GN):
Bear in mind, Elliott ran Bless The Wings to be 3rd in the GN 12 days after he PU'd on testing ground in the Irish GN, so we can't assume anything, particularly if one or both depart early at Fairyhouse.
Topham entries:
Question about fitness/form:
Of course, there may be others I've missed or niggles that force a defection but, of these 8 possible defections, 4 are Elliott horses and 3 are Mullins'.
And of the entries on OR144~146, Elliott has 0 and Mullins has only Glengouly (146 and virtually assured a run already, though he too has a Topham entry). So, any of theirs that were scratched from the top 34 would lessen their representation.
Next official scratchings, Confirmations on Monday 8 April.
I dislike that it feels that the tactics for such a classic race have become less about the race itself and more about stuffing the entries list with as many horses as possible to block the prospects of others. The rules must be changed to discourage this type of behaviour in future IMO.
What’s the feasibility of having 6-10 reserve runners on the day? Or is there a world in which a maximum OR could be implemented to stop the mass number of what appear to ultimately be junk entries? Latter is far from ideal but maybe a lesser evil than the current situation?
No Reserves any more so anything below #34 in the weights at that point definitely misses out. There were 4 Reserves (the next 4 in the weights at Decs) until last year, and they could replace late defector(s) up to the Friday morning. I don't know why they scrapped Reserves tbh.
It's patently become a numbers game to grab as much of the £1m prize money (half of which goes to placed horses) as poss.
It's not totally inconceivable that Mullins could fill the first 3 or even more this year, with more than a quarter of the field representing him, including 10/1, 14/1, 20/1, 25/1 and 33/1 shots. In contrast he has 5 remaining entries for the Irish GN. Up to 30 will run and while he has the hot 4/1 fav only 2 others of his are less than 50/1.
Whether Elliott or Mullins would run a runner just to maintain force of numbers or, even more cynically, declare and late scratch a runner to keep out a rival, who knows?
But both motive and opportunity are clearly there this year.
Bloody confusing but the numbers already discounted his departure so Panda Boy still needs 1 more to come out and Kitty's Light 4 more to be guaranteed a run but there's 1 less obvious defection candidate that might oblige.
PS Appears that, in addition to the 17 scratched, Ash Tree Meadow, Salvador Ziggy and Favori De Champdou and a couple of others lower down, all failed to qualify.
I'm not unhappy cos, as he's clearly got a problem, I was wanting my stake refunded but I'm scratching my head about Ziggy because he had a 3m chase win and close 2nd in the 3m Kerry National in September on his CV. How the hell does he not qualify but Classic Getaway (unplaced in 2 at 24~26f), does?
Most trainers would think long and hard about running him in both unless he departs early on Monday. He and Farouk D'alene are trained by Elliott and owned by Gigginstown and neither have any runners hovering below the cut, as it currently stands.
Some key-race form figures relating to some of the leading market (and model) fancies:
Already remarked on the poor form of the Welsh GN but you have to say ditto for other races of relevance:
With my 5 tactical e/w bets (Glengouly, Galia Des Liteaux, Limerick Lace, Adamantly Chosen and Chemical Energy) needing pruning, I'm giving some serious further thought to team selection beyond the top 3 (I Am Maximus, Mr Incredible and Kitty's Light).
The 1st of my 5 e/w candidates to join the top 3, confirmed on my slip for 13th April is LIMERICK LACE.
Her CV and pedigree pluses are already set out above but the form of her close 2nd in the Troytown behind Coko Beach (who ran a blinder off 9lbs higher mark next outing when 2nd, conceding 22lbs to the winner in the Becher) looks solid and suggests to me that 1 of her 3 test fails (just sub-threshold 3m+ RPR 147, awarded for that run) is questionable.
Like Minella Times, her 20f+ chase RPR 153 does meet the GNOR+5 and absolute 148+ stat-thresholds of the model and her 3m+ chase win/near-miss record (1/1) is 100% (MT's was 2/2). Both were/are 2nd season chasers unexposed >24f and potentially highly progressive over a trip. One has to use common sense in using stats, especially for youngsters, and this is a logically tweakable stat-test for such promising chasers down the weights. If I were to make that tweak, she'd rate solidly as a Strong Place candidate by my model's methodology and 4th best-rated in the field.
But also I've been looking closer at the (offspring) record at 4m+ of the sire and damsires 1~3 of all my e/w candidates. Unusually, she has a "full house" in terms of supporting her staying potential:
- Sire, Walk In The Park, as mentioned above, has had 1 runner at 4m+ (Walk In The Mill) who placed 4th ("stayed on gamely") in the 2019 GN. The tiniest possible sample of course but nonetheless a 100% frame-making record to date. What's more, the record of his progeny in Graded events (all distances) is materially superior when the Dams are French-bred. Mixing his principally Irish-bred genealogy with quality French mares and damsires seems to produce electricity. That's the complexion of Limerick Lace's female line, which brings us on to her Damsires, all of whom have produced winners or near-missers at 4m+:
- Califet, a tough and prolific-winner at 12f, his offspring as a damsire are only just coming to maturity and Limerick Lace will be the first to try a marathon trip but he already has 7 with 33%+ win rates in all runs Under Rules (LL herself is 41%). As a sire, he's had 2 sons attempt the trip - Eclair Surf (2L 2nd staying on behind the redoutable Win My Wings in the Eider, sadly fatally injured in a GN) and Beauport, recent winner of the 34f Midlands National. Again a tiny sample but to date a 67% win/near-miss record at 4m+.
- DS2 Video Rock, has plenty of offspring as Damsire who've shown form at 4m+, most notably in GNs Saint Are (2L 2nd to Many Clouds and 3rd to One For Arthur) and Delta Work (3rd in 2022) and he sired Nine De Sivola (close 2nd in a Scottish National). As Sire and DS, the frame-making rate for his 14 runners at 4m+ is a solid 26%.
- DS3 Le Pontet was damsire of Ladalko, a Warwick National winner and beaten only by a Short Head in a Scottish GN. Le P's offspring's frame-making record at 4m+ is 33%.
So, the pedigree ingredients appear to be there for her to shine at the GN trip and I'm more than happy with her at 25/1 as the 4th selection on my team, which now comprises:I Am Maximus 25/1 e/w
Mr Incredible 33/1 e/w (outsized stake)
Kitty's Light 25/1 e/w
Limerick Lace 25/1 e/w (cashed out breakeven 20s with Bet365 and reninvested at 25s with WH)
In the vain hope of filling all 5 paying places, when going conditions and final race intentions maybe a bit clearer, I'll select one more from Adamantly Chosen (33/1), Chemical Energy (25/1), Glengouly (50/1) and Galia des Liteaux (50/1) to keep and cash out the rest.
Monbeg Genius was backed early but now a non runner. Thinking of adding Meetingthe waters.
There are also similarities in terms of their weights (struggling to find the marks of West Tip for the two years in question):
West Tip - 10st 1lb in 1985 and 10st 11lb in 1986
Mr Incredible - 10st 4lb in 2023 and 10st 10lb in 2024
The GN is a race full of coincidences but also horses that consistently do well in the race - the likes of Red Rum, Tiger Roll, Party Politics and even West Tip who followed his win up with finishes of 4th, 4th, 2nd and 10th - given that Mr Incredible is still just 8 it remains to be seen what happens this year and in years to come but if there is a race that might appeal to the quirkiness of the horse then it is the GN.
Anyway, I'm all in. In addition to the ante post bets, I will be incorporating the horse in forecasts, tricasts, you name it. Should I clean up I will, of course, take all the glory in impressing the wife and my sons with my knowledge of horse racing. If it loses I will blame Peanuts!
Forecast (Accuweather) is worsening for GN week on Merseyside.
In the 14 days prior to the big day, there is rain forecast on all but 3 days, with 35mm+ across the Mon, Tues and Wed immediately before the meeting.
And rain knocking about on race day itself.
Obviously, forecasts change quickly but if that proves correct, we could be looking at the slowest ground since 2018 and perhaps another Soft-ground GN.
One in (Limerick Lace), one out.
Decided to give Adamantly Chosen at 33/1 the heave-ho from my "possibles" list this morning and cashed-out at breakeven.
He's got an impressive list of stayers at the 29f range for relatives but his own CV, making him borderline Place Potential by my model's reckoning, is totally reliant on his recent 26f Chase win at Down Royal.
That did impress the eye (and the market) but, while he beat a C&D winner and last season's GN 7th, Roi Mage is now a 12 yo and, realistically, the other 3 runners (including Classic Getaway, who predictably didn't get the trip) were never likely to land much of a blow.
Can never be sure how long Bob will make the cash-out facility available (I'm hoping/assuming until Confirmations) and, as I've concluded that whatever the ground he won't make my team, it makes sense to recoup the stake.
If he stays fit the optimistic plan is the Spring Cup at Newbury followed by the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot.
Kittys Light 20/1
Vanillier 12/1
I am Maximus 22/1
It's a bit of a lottery my daughter has randomly picked a horse for me to bet on for her and won far more often than me over the last 10 years.
So, Panda Boy is IN.
As is (I believe) Eklat De Rire.
Chambard and Kitty's Light (both on current OR 145) next up, to be decided by ballot if only 1 more above them defects. If 2+ defect, Kitty's definitely makes the cut.
Above him in the GN weights, both Farouk D'alene and Run Wild Fred have been taken out of Monday's Irish GN. Presumably Elliott is determined to run them at Aintree, though Farouk D’alene arguably shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near the GN fences.
Interestingly, Desertmore House (cut to 40s in the GN betting and who needs 5 to come out of the GN weights above him) has also been taken out of Fairyhouse, perhaps for ground reasons and/or because Martin Brassil’s figuring/hoping there is a chance of him joining Panda Boy.
Still with Topham entries but guaranteed a GN run:
Fury Road (Elliott)
Mac Tottie (Bowen)
Adamantly Chosen (Mullins)
The Goffer (Elliott)
Glengouly (Mullins but he and owner have another entered for the Topham)
A reminder, neither Elliott nor Mullins have any GN entries below the existing cut until Ontheropes on OR143 for the latter (also with a Topham entry) who now needs an unlikely 9 to come out above him to get a run in the GN.
Watch this space.
Only 21 declared for the race, it will be the smallest field (even without late NRs) for 22 years.
Nick Rockett is Mullins main hope for scooping the Euro270k first prize and he's worthy fav. But 11.10 is a lot to carry in an Irish GN on heavy. He is related to the mare Maid Of Money, who carried 11.06 to win it in 1989 but at 4/1 I'll look elsewhere for an interest.
We know from last year how few finishers there can be, even with a near full-field, in an Irish GN when it's testing. In the likely similar conditions, I'm plump for the proven stamina and, albeit modest, e/w value represented by:
YEAH MAN (10/1)
Nice pedigree (same sire & damsire combo as Mr Incredible) and the form of his comfortable Haydock GN Trial win [+7lbs tomorrow] franked by My Silver Lining going close in the Midlands Nat [off +4lbs]). Has 11.04 on his back but at least that permits Keith Donoghue back on board.
WHERE IT ALL BEGAN (14/1)
Again nice staying pedigree (half brother to Rathvinden), 16L winner of the Irish GN Trial, followed up by placing in the Kim Muir off +12lbs (same mark on Monday). Jack Kennedy back on board (10.13).
Bit boring but I'll add one more if I can sniff out some serious e/w value.
At 40/1 there's a smidge of e/w value IMHO in STREET VALUE, course and distance winner (December's Porterstown) on Soft.
Those will be my 3.
Another very poor run today by an 8/1 shot at Fairyhouse.
Update on Sunday:
And another bites the dust - 11/4 3rd fav last of 7 finishers and well adrift. Current RTF is 33%
Revisiting a stat about the record of GN runners lining up without a run for more than 140 days.
Since 2013, 6 have done so. All had good or encouraging records after a 50 day+ break:
2013 Balthazar King 141 days (chase record after 50+ day breaks: 11111) - 15th 91L "made most to 7th, left in lead after 16th (water), headed 18th, weakening when hit 20th". i.e. ran well but ran out of gas but we found out how well he could do the following year (2nd) following a 24 day break after winning a hard XC at the Festival
2013 Lost Glory 175 (chase record after 50+ day break: 11) - PU
2015 Balthazar King 148 (chase record after 50+ day break: 11111011F11) - Fell 6th
2015 Shutthefrontdoor 152 (NH record after 50+ day break: 13[3.5L]16[3L]1 - 5th 13L "tracked leaders, left close 3rd 5 out, chased winner next, faded last, lost 2 places last 100yds" - i.e. ran well but ran out of gas
2017 Drop Out Joe 286 (chase & hurdles record after 50+ day break: 112151) - PU
2021 Discorama 146 (NH record after 50+ day break: 11F23 [both places <4L and the F was at the last when disputing the lead] - 7th 45L "held up in rear, midfield 6th, mistake 8th, steady headway from 18th, disputing fourth 22nd, ridden before 2 out, weakened approaching last", i.e. ran well but ran out of gas
Off GNOR148 Chemical Energy is very tempting and indeed he's one of my tactical e/w bets to cater for others missing the cut.
His solitary run this season, beaten 10L in a Kerry National with decent form, was a nice pipe-opener and, if it weren't for his 1 race campaign and 206 day break, the model would rate him a serious contender on his preferred decent ground and he'd be in the team.
But his record after 50+ day breaks over hurdles and fences is: 12814[31L]6. OK but not indicating an advantage from lay-offs, which have averaged 126 days.
And the fact is that GN stats favour those that have had a 3+ race campaign, finishing preferably not more than 49 days (7 wks) but in any event no more than 84 (12 wks) prior. He will not have run for almost 30 weeks.
You can fail one or other but both is a stretch and while he could/should put in a bold show for a long way, especially if the ground is decent, the light campaign and long lay off tips him into the "likely to run out of gas" camp, according to my model's reckoning.
Even as a good-ground standby in the event Kitty's Light doesn't make the cut, on reflection at 25/1 he doesn't cut the mustard for my team and I've cashed out at breakeven.
Elliott confirms Chemical Energy, Coko Beach, Delta Work, Farouk D’Alene, Fury Road (also with a Topham entry), Galvin, Minella Crooner and The Goffer (also a Topham entry) are all on target for the GN and that Conflated is 50-50 to run in the National or The Bowl.
No mention of Run Wild Fred.
Always need to take Elliott’s comments about intentions with a large pinch of salt but if Conflated is scratched weights will rise another 1lb.
And if he and Fred are both scratched, that would guarantee Kitty’s Light a run.
Other 2 obvious (100/1) candidates that could be scratched - Janidil and Eldorado Allen who PU'd with a breathing problem in the Ultima despite a recent wind op.
With key variables bar the going pretty much set, and a possible further 1lb rise in weights of little consequence to my model's calculations, a rundown on its final ratings for the 2024 GN.
Please note, this is not a prediction of finishing order. Rather, the model's ratings represent the POTENTIAL for each runner, based on their CV and pedigree and assuming they get their preferred going.
Nonetheless the list does represent the order in which, if you wished to back its selections, I would add them to a betting slip, depending on your risk/return target. Certain going preferences are material and mutually exclusive - e.g. IMHO we're unlikely to see I Am Maximus head-to-head with Kitty's Light at the line - but at least it makes for a "hedged" book of winning candidates when the weather is so changeable:
Winning Potential (0~5L):
Next Best / Strong Place Potential (0~10L):
Selections by means of a stats-model are inevitably based on fine margins and it’s hardly a surprise that my model agrees with the market that Corach Rambler, Noble Yeats and Vanillier are all capable of strong runs again.
Similarly, debutants Chemical Energy, Adamantly Chosen, Meetingofthewaters and, though his yard needs to find some form and quickly, Panda Boy all have the profiles to be in the mix crossing the Melling Road second time and it wouldn't represent a shock to the model's methodology for any of the 7 above to grab a place.
But all have 1 too many blemishes in their stats to rank among those it rates as having the best potential to win it and, when it comes to seeking returns from the paying places, there are others with at least as good profile-fits with previous frame-makers and at much more appealing value:
Place Potential (10~20L):
To protect my returns profile but add an extra interest, and potentially extra paying places, I've switched and halved my stake in Galia Des Liteaux at breakeven from e/w to a Top 5 Finish at 10/1. I'd do likewise for Glengouly but the prices don't stack up at the moment (maybe they'll look more workable when Betfair's Place market gets going).
Having cashed out my remaining tactical wagers, that's given me the dry powder to add Roi Mage and I've got 2 Place interests in him, one of which I'll cash out before Confirmations, depending on probable going.
Although he's not as much a steal as he was last year to finish Top 10, when some shrewdies had him at 12/1, to do so he now needs to beat 24 rather than 30 opponents and having witnessed how well he ran and took to the fences, IMHO even at 5/1 he's more of a banker for a Top 10 finish off the same mark in this GN than Corach Rambler is at 9/2 to win it off almost a stone more. Not that "banker" and Grand National should ever appear in the same sentence.
So my betting slip now stands as follows (all NRNB), with just a final tweak to the place candidates to make.
Updated weather forecast:
A fair bit of rain to come this week on Merseyside but looking more settled with mix of sun and showers next week.
Best guesstimate as to going for the GN: Good-to-Soft (Soft in places) = similar to or slightly slower than last year.
It’s how it rides that matters but it seems to need to be verging on GF (it'll never be that quick again) or Heavy for them to abandon “Good to Soft” as the primary description.
Although last year’s problems weren’t the product of quick ground, I suspect they won’t allow it to ride any quicker this year even if the weather dries up.
Bridesmaid again!
Nick Rockett didn't stay, Yeah Man travelled really well but folded down the home straight after smacking one. Where It All Began went OK but was never in range to land a blow.
Hey ho - roll on THE National.
Ground described this morning by the racecourse as Soft - Heavy in places on the GN Course.
"The heavy ground is the lower section from Foinavon round to the back of Valentine's," said clerk of the course Sulekha Varma. "The sun is shining right now but the back end of this week has the potential to turn quite wet and the forecasters are saying it will continue to be unsettled. It sounds like we can expect some level of showers most days."