Had the cut been at 34 runners in the last 10
renewals, the bottom-weight would have had a (Grand National) mark of:
2013: 137 (0 ran off 160+) - winner's mark 137 but would have missed the cut by 1 / winner's weight: 10.03
2014: 140 (2) - winner 143 / 10.06
2015: 140 (2) - winner 160 - but mark compressed 5lbs from 165 at time of weights' framing / 11.09
2016: 147 (2) - winner 148 / 10.07
2017: 145 (1) - winner 148 / 10.11
2018: 144 (1) - winner 150 - Tiger Roll / 10.13
2019: 144 (2) - winner 159 - Tiger Roll / 11.05
2020: 146 (4) - winner 146 - but would have
missed the cut by 1 / 10.03
2022: 145 (2) - winner 147 / 10.10
2023: 142 (6) - winner 146 / 10.05
Based on prior years % scratchings and current ORs of the entries, a very, very wild stab at where the cut may come, allowing for the Irish to get an an extra 1lb+, is OR143-ish. But I'm wondering if there may be a higher propensity for higher-rated runners to take part, given the perception it will be less of a "lottery" (though, with the obvious exceptions of the Foinavon and Red Marauder wins, it never has been IMHO).
Weights to be unveiled next Tuesday and this weekend sees 2 GN Trials, at Haydock and Punchestown.
Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion were the last to perform (1st & 2nd) in the Haydock GNT (notably on rare GS) in 2017 prior to making the frame (6th & 4th) in the April marathon but it will be more typical testing ground tomorrow and likely to be a pointer only if there's soft ground come April.
If so, then 4 of the 5 runners tomorrow with Aintree entries - Becher Chase-winner Chambard, the Hemmings Racing pair, Welsh GN runner-up Iron Bridge and Famous Bridge (both with the best-looking GN pedigrees on show tomorrow), and if it were bottomless in April even Highland Hunter - could be strong contenders. Of the 2 youngsters sporting the green and yellow quarters, Famous Bridge is the more likely also to be competitive in a quick-ground GN but each surely needs to win or near-miss tomorrow for the requisite boost to OR to make the cut. Full Back makes up the quintet with Aintree hopes but, running off OR133, he'll need to win at a canter to take part at Liverpool.
Wins needed also for the only 2 running at Punchestown in Sunday's Irish GNT (also on testing ground) with any hope of making the Aintree cut. The mud's a requirement for Duboyne who, despite a top-starred pedigree for the Aintree marathon, never took an interest on GS last April and stopped abruptly at the last in the Thyestes when right in the mix on favourable going. Wind problem or spat the dummy? Questions to answer. Frontal Assault is ground-versatile and showed promise when a keeping-on close 2nd (ahead of Gaillard Du Mesnil) in the 2022 Irish GN. But he's now winless in 12 attempts over fences at 3m+ and must remedy that on Sunday to have any chance of lining up at Aintree. Royal Thief, Fakiera and Where It All Began also hold entries for Liverpool but God knows why.
Elsewhere tomorrow, 3 others with Aintree GN entries (all Dan Skelton charges) have a spin: Le Milos and Latenightpass (a winner over the GN fences)go over hurdles to protect their chase marks, while Sail Away may be running for place money only in the 4-runner Grade 1 chase at Ascot but, as a spring ground horse, could be a lively outsider to grab some of the same come April, providing OR142's good enough to give him a tilt (touch and go).
As any seasoned follower of my GN ramblings knows, my GN
Model has been (has had to be!) tweaked after every GN with a view to reconciling the first
5 home and any obviously unaccountable failures.
Ahead of the weights' unveiling on Tuesday, I wanted to explain the approach I've taken this time to reconciling the model to the 2023 result; in which each of the model's top 3 selections (Delta Work, The Big Breakaway and Mr Incredible) alas Unseated or "Fell" and only Gaillard Du Mesnil placed as anticipated.
It’s a truism for any model that seeks to identify meaningful
statistical correlations from historic data that it can never be a crystal ball
but it can be, if it’s any good, a pointer to innate potential and probabilities.
Apply that to a 34f horse race over 30 obstacles during 9
minutes of mayhem, and the need for caution in betting and the annual tweak is
clear. And, while obviously nothing like the pure farce of some Nationals of yesteryear or the sad disaster of 2012, by “modern GN” (post-2012)
standards the mayhem of the 2023 renewal, perhaps induced by the pre-race protest, was certainly above-average.
As a result, this year’s tweak has been a measured one, based on the belief that the slings and arrows of
outrageous fortune claimed more victims than usual and that, as a result, not the winner but the distances and
minor places were slightly flattering to some.
In my opinion:
a) Corach Rambler won with something in hand of
the strong-closing Vanilier (worth at least an extra 5L) and The Big Dog and Born By
The Sea, though they ran mighty races and fully deserve their plaudits, were a
tad fortunate to finish 5th and 6th respectively. Indeed, the distance to 6th (10L) was the
shortest of any modern GN (average 30L for the previous 9) and the
shortest for at least 35 years (surpassing 14L in 1995).
b) all 3 of the model's 2023 top selections met with misfortune, though that's absolutely not to say that any of them would have denied Corach Rambler had they not)
Thus, in tweaking the model:
I’ve not sought to reconcile
Vanilier as a 2L “near-misser” (<5L) but rather as a 5~10L placer or The Big Dog at
all.
And I've not set out to reconcile the "failures" by Delta Work, The Big Breakaway and Mr Incredible, notwithstanding their moderate to poor form since and a run at all in Mr Incredible's case.
As it happens, the finally tweaked, post-2023 model considers the top 7 ratings and "misfortune-free, run-to-profile result" on GS going should have been:
Next Best (Place Potential): Gaillard Du Mesnil, The Big Breakaway, Vanilier
Other fancies at the time, Back On The Lash and Velvet Elvis, were clearly over-rated as potential frame-makers by the 2023 version of the model and are no longer regarded as such by the tweaked model, though it still rates Dunboyne as a strong contender had 2023 been a soft-ground GN (though whether his temperament would have been up to delivering is an unknown).
As we know, last year’s mayhem prompted the authorities also
to make some tweaks, including the cut in field size to 34.
While removing 6 at the bottom of the weights certainly
affects my betting strategy and may impact the profitability of the exercise, I'm doubtful that it’s likely to alter fundamentally
the character of the race (as was the case post-2012) or the key relevant
trends that my model seeks to identify and utilise.
But time will tell, of course.
In advance of Tuesday's weights, in order to hit the ground running when bookies deign to offer NRNB, I’ve run a first-cut of the model’s present ratings of the top
74 (by current mark) - using the assumptions that the topweight is allotted no
less than 166 and that each of the Irish-trained are given their current mark +1lb (some are bound to be penalised a little more).
From the model’s perspective, it’s still looking like, while
there are obviously some strong contenders carrying 11.00+,
the sweet spot remains down the weights.
Weights unveiled tomorrow but they’re unlikely to make any
difference to the current top 2 selections by my model.
For preliminary purposes, I’ve run the slide rule over the top
71 by current OR, making the assumption that the topweight runs off GNOR166 in
April and every Irish-trained runner is allotted 1lb more than their current
mark (some may have more).
By way of an explanation of how the model evaluates the
runners, there are 2 equally-important parts:
1. Pedigree
2. CV (Age and Race Record)
PEDIGREE
Handily, of course, pedigrees aren’t subject to the vagaries
of such things as Prep Runs and the whim of the handicapper, so we can conduct
a preliminary screen of entries regardless of GN weights etc.
That said, an obvious caution. In the GN, as in all horse
racing, indeed all walks of life, bloodlines guarantee absolutely nothing. For
every Denman, there’s a disappointing full brother (Silverburn) and I know the Molloy family certainly has its peculiar anomalies.
Nonetheless, with 10 races and 395 runners, we have a decent
sample now in relation to what type of pedigrees tend to outperform in a
“Modern” (post-2012) GN.
The model looks for specific traits in a runner’s pedigree
in common with Modern GN winners and frame-makers, that have shown a
statistically-material outperformance relative to representation.
These Pedigree traits cover the Sire, the Damside (maternal
family) and inbreeding across the pedigree, specifically:
Sire:
Race Record at Group 1 at 8f+
Damsire
1~3 (i.e. maternal grandfather, great-grandfather and great-great
grandfather): Race Record of their progeny at Group 1 at 10f+
Damsire
1~3: Record of their progeny in Grand Nationals since 1988
The
Matriarchal “Bottom Line” of the pedigree: Any GN winners or other high
quality stayers born of this Female Family, particularly within 5
Generations.
Presence
of (and inbreeding to) key stamina-at-speed influences in a pedigree;
particularly (though not solely) a key French stallion of the mid-20th
Century, Wild Risk, whose presence in a pedigree offers unique synergies
with the ubiquitous descendants of Sadlers Wells.
The
model rates a runner’s GN Pedigree between 0 and 5 Stars, in rising quality,
according by correlation to the pedigrees of Modern GN winners, near-missers
and frame-makers.
Among
all 395 runners since 2013, only One For Arthur’s pedigree has rated 5 Stars
and only 10 horses (running 21 times between them) rated 3~5 Stars. They were:
Aurora’s
Encore (Won 2013)
Balthazar
King (2nd 2014, 2 other runs)
One
For Arthur (Won 2017 & 6th 2019)
Tiger
Roll (Won 2018 & 2019)
Magic
Of Light (2nd 2019, 1 other run)
Minella
Times (Won 2021, 1 other run)
Any
Second Now (3rd 2021, 2nd 2022, 1 other run)
Longhouse
Poet (6th 2022, 1 other run)
Two
For Gold (PU 2022)
Dunboyne
(PU 2023)
So, accounting
for 5.3% of all runners, they produced 5 (50%) of winners and 3 runners-up (all
by <5L). Or put another way, 7 of these 10 horses won or near-missed, when
all other conditions suited and fortune smiled.
The
key threshold for a Modern GN-winning Pedigree is at least 2 Stars.
Runners
with pedigrees rated 2 Stars or more numbered 88 (22.3% of fields) and
accounted for:
All
10 Winners
7
of the 8 near-missers (<5L) – only Cause Of Causes had 1 Star
29
(58%) of those finishing 1st~5th
And
when it comes to making the frame, at least 1 Star is statistically
significant.
Runners
with at least 1 Stars numbered 218 (55% of fields) and contributed 100% of the
first 4 home and 96% of the first 5. Only the pedigrees of Rocky Creek (5th
2014) and Shutthefrontdoor (5th 2015) scored 0 Stars – both ran out
of gas at the Elbow.
So,
to 2024, and a strong reminder that pedigrees guarantee nothing and, in any
event, are only half of the equation – a runner’s CV is just as important.
But,
of the top 71 entries by current Official Rating, in current OR order, these
pass the 2 Star or more threshold (the 11 in BOLD also have CVs that at current
ORs put them on my model’s initial Long List):
Pedigrees are only half the story when it comes to the
model’s ratings.
There are 12 Tests applied to each runner.
Age
Weight
Best
Hurdles RPR
Best
24f+ Chase RPR vs GNOR
Experience
of/Success in large Chase fields
Time
since last Chase Win/Near-miss (<5L)
Success
on different Goings
Highest
Class of Chase Win/Near-miss
Success
or Unexposed in 26f+ Chases
Record
in 28f+ Chases
Season’s
Race Record
Days
since Last Run
There’s a “Pass” formula for each of these tests and,
importantly, each is supported by a statistically-meaningful record of
outperformance (winners and frame-makers) vs representation, when back-tested
against the CVs of the 395 runners that lined up for the 10 “Modern” GNs
(post-2012).
For a runner to be a contender to make the frame in a GN,
they must fail no more than 2 of the Tests.
In aggregate, the back-tested application of these 12 Tests
to all runners in the 10 GNs 2013~2023 shows the following results:
Scoring 0 Fails:
2014: Pineau De Re – WON / Balthazar King – 2nd
2015: Cause Of Causes – 8th 27L as a 7yo
2016: Rule The World – WON / The Last Samuri – 2nd /
Saint Are – PU (hated soft ground)
2017: One For Arthur – WON / Cause Of Causes – 2nd
2018: Tiger Roll – WON
2019: Tiger Roll – WON
2023: The Big Breakaway (bad hamp & F 2nd) /
Mr Incredible (saddle slipped & UR on flat after 24th fence)
So, these 12 runners that passed all 12 tests represented
3.0% of total fields and produced 50% of the Winners and 30% of runners-up
(indeed, they accounted for 1st & 2nd in those 3 races). Only 4
failed to trouble the judge.
Of the remaining 5 GN winners, 4 scored only 1 Fail
(Aurora’s Encore, Many Clouds, Minella Times, Corach Rambler) with only Noble
Yeats failing 2.
In aggregate, those with 0~2 fails represented 27% of
fields and contributed 98% of those finishing 1st~5th.The model’s sole outlier among those 50 frame-makers is last year’s 5th,
The Big Dog – a race with more than its fair share of hard-luck stories.
In summary, in trying to identify the top Winning Candidates, the model's looking for:
A maximum 2 Test Fails AND
At least 2 Pedigree Stars
But, in addition to the 12 Test Screen, there are up to 4
CV-based Pluses that the model looks for as (“icing on the cake”) pointers to GN success, again each
supported by statistically-meaningful outperformance vs representation:
CV Pluses are awarded for:
1st or 2nd season
chaser that’s won (or near-missed <5L in) a 3m+ Class 1 chase - 16% of
runners produced 80% of winners and 44% of frame-makers
Best RPR for recent 26f+ chase
is >7lbs higher than GNOR – 12% runners = 50% of winners and 44%
frame-makers
Materially superior chase record in the
Spring (mid-Mar~mid-May) – 6.6% of runners = 20% of winners (Aurora’s
Encore and Tiger Roll 2019) and 18% of frame-makers
Progressive form over GN fences: first
run as 8 or 9yo since running well as a 7yo in GN or a GN debutant with Becher
form (small in number but a nice pointer to minor places) – 3% of runners
= 13.3% of 1st~6th (i.e. of 12 runners, 8 made the first
6 home)
Runners with 1 or more of these CV Pluses numbered 119 (30%)
of all fields but contributed:
All 10 winners and 7 of the 8 near-missers (only
Pleasant Company had no CV Pluses)
86% of 1st~5th
So, how do those 20 entries with GN-Pedigrees rated 2 Stars
or more, or more pertinently the 11 on the Long List, shape up for the
12-Test CV Screen and CV Pluses?
You’ll have to watch this space cos I need a drink. But
there are 2 rock solid Winning Candidates from that List that, within reason regardless
of their treatment tomorrow and providing they have a safe prep beforehand,
will definitely be on my betting slip.
The first 2 definite selections, with currently the Top 2 Winning Calibre Ratings, are sadly not
unfancied but that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
Those ratings are, however, rock solid regardless of the handicapper's pronouncement this afternoon and subject only to a safe spin in a prep anytime up to 23 March. Also, importantly,
both runners have the GN as their stated target, prefer decent ground and are very
likely to make the cut, so an ante-post interest isn't out of the question.
Indeed, I've reluctantly taken the price for both as they've attracted interest and are liable to shorten further:
PANDA BOY (best ante-post price 22/1) - Model Rating: 2 Test Fails / 2 Pedigree Stars / 1 CV Plus
8yo, 2nd season chaser (the sweet spot
for both age and experience in GNs post-2012)
9 chases to his name, he's 4/4 finishing
in the frame over 24f+, including:
2 near-misses in 2022 and 2023 Paddy
Power December handicap, which has been a good pointer to Aintree success
in recent years - Gilgamboa (4th GN 2016), Anibale Fly (4th 2018) and
Minella Times (won 2021) all won or placed in the PP and Noble Yeats (won
2022) ran in it in campaigns culminating in Aintree success
5th 8L in last year's Irish GN on testing
ground
Handles any ground (PPs were on Yielding
and Soft, he won his Beginners Chase on Good and his trainer considers him
a good-ground horse)
A debutant over the GN fences, he tends to race handy - hopefully avoiding
traffic problems
4 runs to date in the campaign, near-missing in his most-recent spin in a big-field 3m hurdle. No stated plans as yet for a prep.
Pedigree: from the family of Balthazar
King (and more distantly, GN winner Lucius and stalwart State of Play),
his pedigree has some important similarities with that of last year's GN
near-misser Vanilier. They not only share the same Damsire, King's Theatre,
but Linamix is prominent in the both Sires’ bloodline, bringing a rare and
synergistic combo of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler to the paternal side of both
pedigrees, similar to Ballabriggs, Pleasant Company and Walk In The Mill.
Trained by Martin Brassil who knows what
it takes, sending out Irish and Aintree 2006 GN winner Numbersixvalverde and
GN 3rd Double Seven in 2014, with only 1 of his 5 runners being outside the first 6. He’s having a good season (26% win rate in
chases), currently 67% RTF.
KITTY'S LIGHT (best ante-post price 25/1) - Model Rating: 2 Test Fails / 2 Pedigree Stars / 1 CV Plus
In his 4th season chasing but still an 8yo (40% of modern GN winners from 19% of runners)
Though his jumping can be an issue and he'll be a debutant over the fences, in 24 chases his only failure to complete was when hampered and PU in 2021 Hennessy. Hampered again in this year's Hennessy, his record for frame-making in 25f+ chases is otherwise impeccable (8/10).
More pertinently he's 6/6 frame-making in chases at 28~33.5f, winning 3, and his record at 4m+ reads 121.
Perfectly at home on GS or Good but very much needs a sound surface.
That's manifested in a materially superior record in the Spring (CV Plus) - 100% frame-making from 6, compared to 50% from 18 at other times of the year.
2023 saw 3 consecutive wins at a trip: 33.5f Eider Chase, 32f Scottish National and 28.5f Bet365 (aka to old farts like me, "The Whitbread"), sending his OR from 135 to 147, assuring a GN tilt this year. Now 146 after the Hennessy, he's otherwise had a hurdles campaign over c 21f to preserve his chase mark and thus a quiet season to date but is entered for next Saturday's Coral Trophy (aka Racing Post Chase) at Kempton, which could be his final prep 49 days prior to Aintree and will likely see him ridden competitively.
A win or near-miss would remove 1 of his Test Fails (and certainly shorten his GN odds) but isn't essential. Aurora's Encore, winner of the 2013 GN a year after near-missing in the Scottish National and another Spring Ground lover, ran 7 times prior to Aintree without troubling the judge.
Pedigree: KL's stamina hardly needs verification but he's from the family of Scot Nat near-misser Cornish Rebel (and Best Mate to boot), but his 2 Pedigree Pluses show why he can show such a turn of foot at the business end. His Sire Nathaniel (by Galileo) and Damsire were both Group 1 winners at 10f+ (RPR124+) and his Damsires 1 and 2 both produced Group 1 winners at 12f (RPR120+].
Aside from whether he takes to the GN fences, his racing-style (held up) could expose him to traffic problems of course.
Trained in Wales by Christian Williams, whose made a name for himself with stayers - Win My Wings doing the Eider and Scot Nat double, like KL, and Potters Corner of course a Welsh GN winner. Surprisingly, there hasn't been a welsh-trained winner of the GN since 1905. Time for some mean-reversion.
More later after the handicapper unveils his assessment.
Here we go. Even if topweight is Noble Yeats on 165, Kittys Light and Panda Boy both on GNOR 146 is perfect. Will gladly take an extra 3lbs on Panda's Irish mark to make them both (worst-case) #52 and #53 (best-case #46 and #47) in the weights and virtually certain of making the cut. They'll likely carry 10.03~10.07 - ideal. My guestimate is the cut is around OR143 Slide rule out again. More anon.
Full list of weights for the 2024 Grand National
HORSE AGE WEIGHT RATING OWNER TRAINER
1 Hewick (IRE) 9 11 12 169 Mr T. J. McDonald John Joseph Hanlon IRE
2 Conflated (IRE) 10 11 9 166 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
Notable confirmation of intention for topweight Hewick to run in the GN, assuming all's well, despite going for the GC again. 29 days between them this year. In which case, it would definitely be 10.03 for my current top 2.
'Shark' Hanlon reacts to Hewick getting top weight
“I knew he’d have top weight. You have to expect that. He probably deserves top weight.
“I think the trip will suit him. He’s going for the Gold Cup first and please God he comes out of the Gold Cup safe and if he does he’ll definitely head there (to Aintree).
Bad oversight on my part in the model's Long List from those with 2+ Pedigree Stars. Nassalam has 2 Stars and is one of the Long List flashing away on the radar screen. Fwiw, 11.04 is my model's concern (even just 2lbs less would make a big difference as per its slide rule). Definitely needs Hewick to run to keep the weights as they are IMHO. I'd be happier with meaningful cut (Soft better still). The RP quotes Gary Moore after he won a 20f Nov chase late 2021 on quickish GS. "He was hating the ground; it was too quick for him and .... he's a slow-ground horse." He still won it though, of course, and over 4m he just has to not get detached. He clearly had a lot left in the tank at Chepstow and 33/1 certainly looks e/w value. For me, there's a few candidates on the fringe to weigh up - need to be super-selective this year - but he's one of them for sure.
Already with the assistance of 6 fewer lightweights to contend with, Hewick's intended participation offers a real advantage to other higher-rated runners. GNOR169 would be the highest by 2lbs for the topweight in any post-2012 GN - with some early renewals overlapping with the fag end of compression, the average has been 162.6. Not since the last pre-compression GN of Bobbyjo (1999) has the topweight's mark been 169 or more Only Tiger Roll in his "Red Rum " win in 2019 (159) and Many Clouds (160, benefitting from 5lbs compression), have won a modern GN with a GNOR > 150. Indeed, take Tiger out of the equation altogether and the highest GNOR for the 7 other winners was 148 (Rule The World with 10.07 and One For Arthur 10.11). If Hewick is declared on 11 April, we'll have runners rated 156 carrying < 11.00. Bear in mind, Neptune Collonges (OR157) had to carry 11.06 to win it (by a whisker) in 2012.
Since they principally work according not to OR but absolute weight thresholds (as Ruby Walsh once commented, regardless of rating, in a National "every lb over 11 stone becomes harder to carry"), Hewick's participation doesn't affect my model's formulae but it certainly may affect its marginal selections - for example, potentially putting Noble Yeats back in contention to win it again. It also may deny a run to a couple more at the bottom of the weights if a surprisingly modest weight persuades connections of higher-rated runners (with or without justification) to take their chance. I'm not too worried about 146 not making it but maybe the cut won't be that far below.
The big British yards don't help themselves when it comes to the GN. You wonder if they're so obsessed with Grade 1 targets they don't even care that much about it. I appreciate he won it (a tad fortunately) with Neptune Collonges but why the hell Nicholls ran Threeunderthrufive the weekend before the GN weights were framed is a total mystery, to me at least. One of Nicholls' senior lads has fancied him for ages for the GN and that's been the season's target. He'd set 2 career-high chase RPRs in his first 2 runs since wind surgery in the summer, putting him nicely on OR152. That assured a run at Aintree and would have meant a seriously competitive 10.09. Winning the big Ascot handicap under 12.00 on Saturday made nice prize money of course but put him up to OR156 and 10.13 at least. Of course, that's not a stopping weight but it certainly don't help and Kittys Light will now have a 9lb pull on the day for beating him by 8L in the Scottish National. We can bemoan (with certain good reason) the Irish dominance but our biggest yards appear to have waved the white flag. Rant over.
Been taking a close look at NASSALAM, picked out by @RobinKeepsBobbin
There are 2 pieces of Aintree form to chew over I think:
1. His season's debut was over the GN fences in November's 21f Grand Sefton on Heavy. They omitted The Chair that day but he jumped the fences cleanly, finishing strongly in 4th (6L) with 3 fence-specialists for competition. Then, of course, in December (off 3lbs higher at OR145) he romped home in the 30.5f Welsh GN also on Heavy. It's a rare combination for a GN debutant to have both good form over the GN fences and a Class 1 win/near-miss at 28f+. Of the 395 GN runners since 2013, only 3 fit the bill as GN first-timers: Vics Canvas (3rd 2016 GN, and might have won but for a breath-taking near-exit and recovery at first Bechers), having near-missed in the 2015 29f Whitbread and Becher Chase. One For Arthur (winner 2017) had near-missed in that season's Becher Chase before winning the 29f Warwick National Kimberlite Candy (PU 2021) had a carbon-copy of One For Arthur's form but wasn't able to handle the decent ground of the GN The only near-qualifier was Vieux Lion Rouge (6th in 2017 GN after his Becher and 28f Grand National Trial wins) though not as a debutant as he'd already run a creditable 7th as a 7yo in the 2016 GN.
And, with Chambard flopping in the recent GNT, Nassalam is the only entry this year that ticks that box, though Latenightpass is a "League One version", as former winner of the Aintree Hunter Chase and December's 29f Class 2 XC at Cheltenham.
On the face of it a big positive for Nassalam though he has a lot more weight to carry that any of these (11.04 assuming Hewick is declared - though that's a winnable-with weight, he would not want a rise). At least the RPR he notched in the Chepstow marathon (4lbs > than his GNOR) is the same +4 margin as Vics Canvas for his Whitbread near-miss, though One For Arthur was +8 > GNOR for his Warwick National win and Kimberlite was +7 for his. Mark-wise he is running off 16lbs higher than for his Welsh GN romp. Vics Canvas +5lbs on Sandown, One For Arthur was +11lbs on Warwick and Kimberlite Candy +13lbs but the manner and 34L margin of his victory at Chepstow was stunning.
BUT, going-wise, is he a versatile One For Arthur or a Kimberlite Candy in need of soft ground?
2. The second piece of Aintree form may offer a clue:
He ran in the 3m handicap (on the Mildmay Course) on GN day last year, a race often seen as a clue to future GN potential. He struggled to go the pace on GS ("was outpaced 4 out") but, though “weakening before 4 out”, gamely plugged on to come home 7th 19L. They clocked 8 secs slow of standard at an average clip of 15.2 secs per furlong. By comparison, in one of the slower-time modern GNs on GS, Corach Rambler later clocked 6.6 secs slow of STD at an average clip of 15.9 secs per furlong (of course not the same course and usually watered to be a tad slower than the Mildmay - the goingstick reading was 5.8 for the Mildmay and 5.2 [slower] for the National course that day).
What can we conclude, if anything, from this? As Tony McCoy once said, nothing drains the stamina from a stayer like being taken along at a faster pace than they like. But, of course, comparing pace over 24f and over 34.5f is to compare apples and oranges. For reference, the fastest pace of any modern GN has been 15.56 spf in Many Clouds' victory in 2015 (7.2 secs fast of STD)
So, what is the GN equivalent pace of 15.2 spf over 24f that may be too quick for Nassalam?
Personally, I don't believe he's a Kimberlite Candy - i.e. a lost cause on any form of GS. But it's fair to say that he probably wouldn't want the going on the GN course to be any quicker than it was last year.
Bearing in mind (presumably) a determined effort to keep the going safe (slow) enough to avoid the problems of last year and, in that vein, the earlier Off time of 4pm and and he may well be in luck.
Of course, there's always the possibility that Mother Nature delivers a Soft-ground GN for the first time since 2018. He'll likely be on my betting slip if so.
Interesting
day today and, with WH now offering NRNB and 5 places, money’s now down
on my model’s 3rd Winning Calibre selection, though not without reservation.
Though Kittys Light wasn’t declared for the
Coral Trophy (even free-draining Kempton's going is Soft/Heavy) and now looks
likely to have his prep in the Ultima, at 3.50pm today the 25.5f Bobbyjo
Chase at Fairyhouse (albeit with the usual small field) sees a very interesting
contest between 4 with GN entries.
Since
inception, February’s Bobbjo has been the (usually final) prep of choice for
many of the Irish runners (particularly those of Willie Mullins) that
went on to deliver at Aintree – Hedgehunter (won both 2005), Snowy
Morning (3rd in both 2008), Black Apalachi (2nd in
both 2009), Oscar Time (3rd & 2nd 2011), The
Midnight Club (won & 6th) Rare Bob (5th GN2013), Rathvinden
(won & 3rd 2019), Burrows Saint (2nd & 4th
2021), Any Second Now (won & 2nd 2022) and Vanillier (2nd
in both 2023) who runs again today, having had a quiet campaign over inadequate
trips to date.
The
market's made Vanillier hot fav for Aintree, having decided he’s been "thrown in" at
the GN weights by the handicapper; raising him only 4lbs for his fast-closing
2L defeat by Corach Rambler (+13lbs).
But IMHO he was flattered by that distance by at
least 5L - the winner clearly idling with gas in the tank (as explained
previously, the 10L covering the first 6 home, was the shortest of any GN since
at least 1988.
With only 10.08 on his back, he's certainly
capable of a repeat frame-making run on 15 April but, regardless of how he runs
today, my model rates him place material at best.
It also has little interest in either Fury
Road or Minella Crooner, each of whom has failed in 2 attempts at >25f.
But I AM MAXIMUS for Willie Mullins
is very much of interest on his stat-profile,
having a 3 Star GN-Pedigree and, providing the weights don't go up (though a
win or near-miss today would offset that risk), a worst-case 2 Test Fails.
A win or
near-miss today (he’s 2 wins and a near-miss from 3 chases at Fairyhouse) would
make his GN Winning stat-rating immune to a weight-rise and surely shorten his GN price.
Hence
decision day for me and I’ve added him at 25s each way to Panda Boy and Kittys
Light on my GN ticket.
I AM MAXIMUS (“Max”)11.02 (25/1 WH NRNB 5
places) Model Rating (currently): 2 Test Fails/ 3 Pedigree Stars / 1 CV Plus
· 8 yo, 2nd season chaser (the sweetest
of age and experience spots)
· 8 chases to date (5 at Grade 1), completing all
despite not being the most fluent jumper, his CV's well known - Irish GN and
2.5m Grade 1 winner as a novice, though he's subsequently come up short against the very best. The form of the Irish GN looks decent enough (9 runners winning since)
· It was his staying-on 4th up The Hill in last Festival's Brown Advisory that prompted JP to acquire him shortly before the Fairyhouse marathon. JP knows a staying
pedigree alright and Max’s is also of particular interest to my GN model, as it
bears several uncommon characteristics, remarkably similar to Tiger Roll’s:
They share the same Sire,
Derby-winner (RPR131) Authorized (as did Mister Coffey last year). Among sires with 3+ GN runners only Old Vic, with the best record to
date of any Sire in the GN with 10+ reps (4 GN winners/near-missers from 30), was
higher-rated on the flat (RPR133)
Both Sire and Damsire (Poliglote
in Max's case) were not only Group 1 winners at 10f+ but also had Group 1 winning
progeny at 12f+. That's common to only 9 horses to run in GNs since 2013, including Tiger
Roll, Balthazar King and The Druids Nephew (unlucky in 2015).
Of those 9, only Tiger Roll was
also linebred to Wild Risk, in his case via 3 grandparents. So too is Max, though highly unusually, via all 4 grandparents and with
a notable son of WR as his 3rd Damsire (maternal great, great grandfather),
thus potentially inheriting the (significant for stamina) X chromosome of Le
Fabuleux (damsire of Montelimar who sired Hedgehunter and Montys Pass and damsired
the twice 4-mile winner Win My Wings).
And, yes, Tiger also had that X-chromosome link to Le Fabuleux, via his
2nd Damsire Chief Singer. BTW, Pineau De Re, Vics Canvas and Walk In The Mill had lesser-quality
but still uncommon versions of the same linebreeding (plus X-Factor) to Wild
Risk or his offspring.
To top it off, for both Tiger
Roll and Max, Sadlers Wells is both their paternal and maternal
Great-grandfather, providing a now stronger than usual presence in a
contemporary NH pedigree for the ubiquitous son of Northern Dancer. That strength of linebreeding to both Sadlers Wells & Wild Risk, via
Sire and Dam in each case, offers a virtually unique genetic synergy, that’s
highly significant to a modern GN, being the extreme test it now is of stamina
at speed.
Aside from the Tiger correlation,
and underlining the strength of Max’s maternal bloodline, he’s one of 6 winners
produced by his mother Polysheba.
· That's all fine and dandy but even identical pedigrees don't guarantee
the same talents or temperament, let alone results on a racecourse and, as a GN betting proposition, there
is a important reservation about Max.
He isn’t the most fluent of
jumpers, especially early in races, though Rough Quest (famously), Pineau De Re and Tiger
Roll were all considered not the best of jumpers prior to winning the big one.
And Max's fencing tends to warm up and gain fluency when asked to quicken and
dig in at the business end, to which he's responded gamely hitherto.
But it’s the way he ran early on
in the Irish GN that poses a concern for Aintree.
Like all his backers a year ago, I'd metaphorically torn up my betting slip
after a mile of the race. Having to be urged on early and throughout the
first circuit and still looking a forlorn hope as they came off the back
straight, it was a remarkable win that, indeed, showed his abundant stamina and
finishing speed but also owed hugely to a truly great ride from Paul Townend,
who may or may not partner him at Aintree.
As JP said : "I must complement Paul for the
ride he gave I Am Maximus because if he were listening to me I'd have said pull
him up after going a mile. He dug in and stayed very well." And, once
he took an interest in proceedings approaching the home bend, IAM really did
dig in and battle his way up the home straight to grab the lead 50 yards from
the line.
The problem is, if he does that in a GN, certainly one on quickish ground,
he'll likely never see the leaders again. But, the last time ignored my model's ratings for jumping concerns I gave Tiger Roll the swerve in 2018 and I subsequently vowed I'd never do so again.
· Quickish ground (though for obvious reasons, Aintree will be determined
to make sure its got plenty of juice) is an unknown for Max. He's won on GS
over hurdles at 2m and near-missed over fences on Yielding at 2.5m but would
probably be best-suited by Soft or at least a mix of GS & Soft. He'll be a mutual hedge with Kittys Light on the betting slip, preferred going-wise.
· Today's run in the Bobbyjo will be his 4th of the campaign and likely last prior to Aintree (49 days prior) – perfect, stats-wise.
Though others flashing away on the edge of the radar screen could make a late-run, those down to GNOR143 representing the current short list, from which I'll add potentially 2 to I Am Maximus, Panda Boy and Kittys Light (in weights' order):
Winning Calibre Stat-rating (0~2 Test Fails & 2+ Pedigree Stars):
Nassalam [borderline] 11.04 (weights' dependent) (33/1) - see previous post for model's assessment
Galvin 10.12 (weights' dependent and wants decent ground) (20/1) - Grade 1 winner, won Cheltenham Festival 30f Nov Chase & close 2nd XC, unfortunate early hamp & UR last year, potentially thrown-in with 10.12
Mr Incredible 10.07 (run dependent) (40/1) - close 2nd 2023 Warwick National & unfortunate saddle slip last year, related to Bonanza Boy (Welsh GN winner & 5th GN 1991)
Gevrey 10.03 (50/1) - 8yo Spring-ground lover, keeping-on close 2nd Irish GN to Max & won October’s Munster National
Glengouly 10.03 (50/1) - 8yo, 2nd season chaser, close 2nd Thyestes, related to Raz De Maree (Welsh GN winner & cl 2nd) and linebred to Wild Risk with X-Factor
Place Potential (0~2 Test Fails & 1 Pedigree Star):
Salvador Ziggy 10.11 (weights' dependent & not definite runner) (50/1) - 8yo, 2nd season chaser, close 2nd Kerry National, related to Romany King (GN cl2nd 1992 and 5th 1995) & The Big Dog (5th 2023)
Galia des Liteaux 10.03 (40/1) - 8yo mare, 2nd season chaser, close 2nd Warwick National, linebred to Wild Risk with X-Factor
I AM MAXIMUS wins the Bobbyjo, with Vanillier (receiving 12lbs) 14L back in 2nd and Minella Crooner 25L 3rd. Cruised past them in the home straight but nearly fluffed the last. Max slashed to 10/1 Jt Fav for the GN.
Winning-Calibre GN Stats-profile now immune to a rise in the weights.
There will be heart-in-mouth moments over the fences but hopefully he’ll come to like Aintree as much as he does Fairyhouse.
I AM MAXIMUS wins the Bobbyjo, with Vanillier (receiving 12lbs) 14L back in 2nd and Minella Crooner 25L 3rd. Cruised past them in the home straight but nearly fluffed the last. Max slashed to 10/1 Jt Fav for the GN.
Winning-Calibre GN Stats-profile now immune to a rise in the weights.
There will be heart-in-mouth moments over the fences but hopefully he’ll come to like Aintree as much as he does Fairyhouse.
Well done @PeanutsMolloy grabbing that 25/1 looks like a very shrewd move now
I AM MAXIMUS wins the Bobbyjo, with Vanillier (receiving 12lbs) 14L back in 2nd and Minella Crooner 25L 3rd. Cruised past them in the home straight but nearly fluffed the last. Max slashed to 10/1 Jt Fav for the GN.
Winning-Calibre GN Stats-profile now immune to a rise in the weights.
There will be heart-in-mouth moments over the fences but hopefully he’ll come to like Aintree as much as he does Fairyhouse.
Well done @PeanutsMolloy grabbing that 25/1 looks like a very shrewd move now
Cheers @Callumcafc They usually flop when I back them on spec. It's one thing for the bookies to react as they have but another for a horse then to attract money and I doubt that he'll go off fav. His jumping will put off enough people and something's bound to come out of the Festival. Meetingofthewaters in the Ultima or Minella Indo in the XC maybe.
Blimey, a new career-high RPR169 (+7lbs) for I Am Maximus's Bobbyjo win yesterday. That's the highest RPR accorded to any BJ winner since inception 21 years ago, beating Any Second Now's RPR167 in 2022. Any Second Now was 2L 2nd to Noble Yeats 7 weeks later at Aintree carrying 11.08 off the same GNOR allotted to I Am Maximus of 159. Max will carry just 11.02 if Hewick is declared to run as planned. But will he handle the fences and the occasion?
- Irish GN (April 2023) - I Am Maximus (won, GNOR +10lbs), Gevrey (1L 2nd +12lbs), Panda Boy (8L 5th +6lbs, Chemical Energy PU, The Goffer PU, Busselton PU
9 of 27 runners have subsequently won (I Am Maximus x2), scoring 11 wins from 95 runs Under Rules = 11.6% Win Rate (though not a winner, Panda Boy was close 2nd in PP Hdcp)
The comparable stats prior to the 2023 Aintree GN for the 2022 Irish GN (in which last year's Aintree 3rd Gaillard Du Mesnil +1lb was 7L 3rd):
5 of 27 runners subsequently won (GdM x2), 6 wins from 109 runs = 5.5% (all prior to 15 Apr 2023)
- Welsh GN (Dec 2023) - Nassalam (won by 34L, +16lbs)
13 of the 19 runners (but not Nassalam) have run since - 0 wins from 17 = 0% to date
The comparable stats prior to the 2023 Aintree GN for Dec 2022 Welsh GN (in which last year's GN5th The Big Dog +11lbs was 6L 3rd):
6 of the 17 runners won prior to 15 April, with 8 wins from 40 runs = 20%
- Paddy Power Handicap (Dec 2023) - Meetingofthewaters (won, +17lbs), Panda Boy (4L 2nd, +6lbs), James Du Berlais (10L 4th +4lbs), Busselton (12L 6th -1lb), Adamantly Chosen (32L 10th, +0lbs)
19 of the 27 runners have run since - 0 wins from 21 runs = 0% to date (though not a winner, Panda Boy was subsequently 2L 4th in Listed 3m hurdle)
The comparable stats prior to the ensuing 2022 Aintree GN for the 2021 PP Hdcp (Noble Yeats 9th prior to GN win +5lbs):
23 of the 28 runners had run prior to 9 April, 6 winners, 6 wins from 53 runs = 11.3%
And for 2020 PP Hdcp prior to the 2021 GN (Minella Times 4L 2nd prior to winning the GN +10lbs and Farclas 10L 3rd was GN5th +3lbs):
19 of the 22 runners had a run prior to 10 April, 4 winners, 4 wins from 42 runs = 9.5%
We know the form of the race is excellent but for the current record to date:
9 of 23 runners have won since, 12 wins in 89 runs = 13.5%
Of course, Corach Rambler also won a strong 2022 Ultima, in which subsequent GN winner Noble Yeats was 20L 9th off his GNOR147
Conclusions as to Form:
- Irish GN 2023 - DECENT FORM with 11.6% Win Rate, about x2 comparable rate for recent Irish GNs. None are weighted to reverse form with I Am Maximus though both Gevrey & Panda Boy could be relatively better on a decent surface and Chemical Energy certainly would
- Welsh GN 2023 - time for stats to change but winless & form NOT PROMISING to date, though Nassalam beat them by a country mile but is 16lbs higher for it
- Paddy Power Hdcp 2023 - time for stats to change but winless & form NOT PROMISING to date and Meetingofthewaters (UR at 1st in only run since) has been hiked 17lbs for the GN - Ultima 2024 - clearly a race that many will view as a key GN trial. Those with Aintree entries (certain or a chance of making the cut) and currently quoted <33/1 for the Ultima:
Meetingofthewaters (8/1)
The Goffer (8/1)
Monbeg Genius (11/1)
Corach Rambler (12/1) - may run in the GC
Glengouly (16/1)
James Du Berlais (18/1)
Bronn (20/1)
Eldorado Allen (20/1)
Aint That A Shame (22/1)
Adamantly Chosen (25/1)
Minella Crooner (25/1)
If the Ultima is his chosen Festival race, my e/w shilling will be on GLENGOULY
With the GN in mind, lots of key races ahead at the Festival, obviously. The XC will likely be the most competitive for years and particularly relevant to the GN chances (and odds) of several of the higher quality Aintree hopefuls. More anon.
However, as an appetiser, we have the Leinster National at Naas tomorrow. Oscar Time and Rare Bob ran in it as their preps in 2013 prior to placing at Aintree. Goonyella did likewise in 2016 and there's a 100/1 outsider for Aintree that's flashing away on my model's radar screen that runs tomorrow.
BRONN - a 7yo Mullins-charge, in his second season chasing has been overmatched at Grade 1 in his fencing career to date, though far from disgraced when 3rd (4L) behind The Real Whacker (ahead of I Am Maximus) in the Brown Advisory and Geri Colombe over Aintree's Mildmay course a day before last year's GN - the form of both races looking decent.
This season, particularly his first chase in handicap company (Thyestes, PU) has been a disappointment but may be down to the Heavy ground he's encountered in his 3 runs and to a knock he sustained in his seasonal bow in November, when travelling well.
The poor form has shaved 4lbs off his OR for Aintree [151] and with potentially only 10.08 to carry there, he could be nicely in for his first attempt beyond 25f.
Pedigree-wise, he ticks some interesting boxes for the marathon trip, which I'll explain if he scores or near-misses tomorrow. For that's what's required to give his GN-rating the required boost to be of interest.
He's topweight tomorrow (though a claimer takes off 5lbs) and a 12/1 shot. Drying ground would help and if he does the business, that 100/1 for Aintree will obviously be a distant memory.
Tactical punt made on Bronn at 100/1 NRNB for the GN. A win or near-miss tomorrow will confirm frame-making potential (according to my model) at his GNOR 151. If he fails to fire, I suspect he’ll not be lining up at Aintree.
Tactical punt made on Bronn at 100/1 NRNB for the GN. A win or near-miss tomorrow will confirm frame-making potential (according to my model) at his GNOR 151. If he fails to fire, I suspect he’ll not be lining up at Aintree.
Well that was the dampest of squibs. PU with a circuit left. Clearly something amiss, mental or physical - a great shame for a promising youngster. Not a chance of him heading to Aintree - he barely got over the first 3 fences. Onwards and upwards.
Quite a spanner in the GN stats for Delta Work and Galvin (and others) with the abandonment of yesterday's XC. Both need a run and will have been tuned to deliver. Neither will now figure on my betting slip; nor in any event would have Minella Indo, Coko Beach or Foxy Jacks. It's looking more and more like I Am Maximus alone will have the star Winning Rating from my model's perspective - but beware those slings and arrows.
One running today that, with others dropping off the radar screen, now carries an each way shilling or two of mine and which my model rates as Strong Place Potential at Aintree, providing a safe spin this pm:
GLENGOULY (50/1 NRNB) - set to carry 10.03, he barely gets a mention among the strong Willie Mullins team for Aintree. Indeed, he may or may not be targeted at Fairyhouse instead though, for a Mullins rather than an Elliott steed, 18 days would seem a short turnaround after running this afternoon (4.10pm).
Ordinarily today's 20f trip would be too short but the testing ground (more rain expected at lunchtime) will suit and a strong show might prompt greater prominence in GN market.
- 8yo 2nd season chaser, unexposed beyond 25f and set to carry 10.03 (the sweetest of spots) - Made all and staying on close 2nd in January's Thyestes on heavy and is probably suited by slower ground but twice a winner on Yielding suggests he'd handle GS - His pedigree has some unusual aspects and indicates he could be at his best over a marathon trip:
From the family of Welsh GN winner and runner-up Raz De Maree
2nd Damsire Video Rock (with a significant presence of Bold Ruler and Court Martial) has strong genetic synergies with Wild Risk. Of the few 395 GN runners since 2013 to have VR in their pedigree, only Saint Are (fast-finishing GN close 2nd and 3rd) and Delta Rock (3rd 2022) share Glengouly's combination of both VR and WR on their damside
Infact he's inbred across his pedigree to Wild Risk via 3 different male and female offspring - a rare format, shared by Tiger Roll and Walk In The Mill (only I Am Maximus has a comparable WR mix in this year's entries)
Comments
2013: 137 (0 ran off 160+) - winner's mark 137 but would have missed the cut by 1 / winner's weight: 10.03
2014: 140 (2) - winner 143 / 10.06
2015: 140 (2) - winner 160 - but mark compressed 5lbs from 165 at time of weights' framing / 11.09
2016: 147 (2) - winner 148 / 10.07
2017: 145 (1) - winner 148 / 10.11
2018: 144 (1) - winner 150 - Tiger Roll / 10.13
2019: 144 (2) - winner 159 - Tiger Roll / 11.05
2020: 146 (4) - winner 146 - but would have missed the cut by 1 / 10.03
2022: 145 (2) - winner 147 / 10.10
2023: 142 (6) - winner 146 / 10.05
Based on prior years % scratchings and current ORs of the entries, a very, very wild stab at where the cut may come, allowing for the Irish to get an an extra 1lb+, is OR143-ish.
But I'm wondering if there may be a higher propensity for higher-rated runners to take part, given the perception it will be less of a "lottery" (though, with the obvious exceptions of the Foinavon and Red Marauder wins, it never has been IMHO).
Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion were the last to perform (1st & 2nd) in the Haydock GNT (notably on rare GS) in 2017 prior to making the frame (6th & 4th) in the April marathon but it will be more typical testing ground tomorrow and likely to be a pointer only if there's soft ground come April.
If so, then 4 of the 5 runners tomorrow with Aintree entries - Becher Chase-winner Chambard, the Hemmings Racing pair, Welsh GN runner-up Iron Bridge and Famous Bridge (both with the best-looking GN pedigrees on show tomorrow), and if it were bottomless in April even Highland Hunter - could be strong contenders.
Of the 2 youngsters sporting the green and yellow quarters, Famous Bridge is the more likely also to be competitive in a quick-ground GN but each surely needs to win or near-miss tomorrow for the requisite boost to OR to make the cut.
Full Back makes up the quintet with Aintree hopes but, running off OR133, he'll need to win at a canter to take part at Liverpool.
Wins needed also for the only 2 running at Punchestown in Sunday's Irish GNT (also on testing ground) with any hope of making the Aintree cut. The mud's a requirement for Duboyne who, despite a top-starred pedigree for the Aintree marathon, never took an interest on GS last April and stopped abruptly at the last in the Thyestes when right in the mix on favourable going. Wind problem or spat the dummy? Questions to answer.
Frontal Assault is ground-versatile and showed promise when a keeping-on close 2nd (ahead of Gaillard Du Mesnil) in the 2022 Irish GN. But he's now winless in 12 attempts over fences at 3m+ and must remedy that on Sunday to have any chance of lining up at Aintree.
Royal Thief, Fakiera and Where It All Began also hold entries for Liverpool but God knows why.
Elsewhere tomorrow, 3 others with Aintree GN entries (all Dan Skelton charges) have a spin:
Le Milos and Latenightpass (a winner over the GN fences) go over hurdles to protect their chase marks, while Sail Away may be running for place money only in the 4-runner Grade 1 chase at Ascot but, as a spring ground horse, could be a lively outsider to grab some of the same come April, providing OR142's good enough to give him a tilt (touch and go).
Enjoy.
As any seasoned follower of my GN ramblings knows, my GN Model has been (has had to be!) tweaked after every GN with a view to reconciling the first 5 home and any obviously unaccountable failures.
Ahead of the weights' unveiling on Tuesday, I wanted to explain the approach I've taken this time to reconciling the model to the 2023 result; in which each of the model's top 3 selections (Delta Work, The Big Breakaway and Mr Incredible) alas Unseated or "Fell" and only Gaillard Du Mesnil placed as anticipated.
It’s a truism for any model that seeks to identify meaningful statistical correlations from historic data that it can never be a crystal ball but it can be, if it’s any good, a pointer to innate potential and probabilities.
Apply that to a 34f horse race over 30 obstacles during 9 minutes of mayhem, and the need for caution in betting and the annual tweak is clear. And, while obviously nothing like the pure farce of some Nationals of yesteryear or the sad disaster of 2012, by “modern GN” (post-2012) standards the mayhem of the 2023 renewal, perhaps induced by the pre-race protest, was certainly above-average.
As a result, this year’s tweak has been a measured one, based on the belief that the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune claimed more victims than usual and that, as a result, not the winner but the distances and minor places were slightly flattering to some.
In my opinion:
a) Corach Rambler won with something in hand of the strong-closing Vanilier (worth at least an extra 5L) and The Big Dog and Born By The Sea, though they ran mighty races and fully deserve their plaudits, were a tad fortunate to finish 5th and 6th respectively. Indeed, the distance to 6th (10L) was the shortest of any modern GN (average 30L for the previous 9) and the shortest for at least 35 years (surpassing 14L in 1995).
b) all 3 of the model's 2023 top selections met with misfortune, though that's absolutely not to say that any of them would have denied Corach Rambler had they not)
Thus, in tweaking the model:
- I’ve not sought to reconcile
Vanilier as a 2L “near-misser” (<5L) but rather as a 5~10L placer or The Big Dog at
all.
- And I've not set out to reconcile the "failures" by Delta Work, The Big Breakaway and Mr Incredible, notwithstanding their moderate to poor form since and a run at all in Mr Incredible's case.
As it happens, the finally tweaked, post-2023 model considers the top 7 ratings and "misfortune-free, run-to-profile result" on GS going should have been:- Top 4 (Winner/Near-Misser <5L): Mr Incredible, Corach Rambler, Delta Work, Noble Yeats
- Next Best (Place Potential): Gaillard Du Mesnil, The Big Breakaway, Vanilier
Other fancies at the time, Back On The Lash and Velvet Elvis, were clearly over-rated as potential frame-makers by the 2023 version of the model and are no longer regarded as such by the tweaked model, though it still rates Dunboyne as a strong contender had 2023 been a soft-ground GN (though whether his temperament would have been up to delivering is an unknown).As we know, last year’s mayhem prompted the authorities also to make some tweaks, including the cut in field size to 34.
While removing 6 at the bottom of the weights certainly affects my betting strategy and may impact the profitability of the exercise, I'm doubtful that it’s likely to alter fundamentally the character of the race (as was the case post-2012) or the key relevant trends that my model seeks to identify and utilise.
But time will tell, of course.
In advance of Tuesday's weights, in order to hit the ground running when bookies deign to offer NRNB, I’ve run a first-cut of the model’s present ratings of the top 74 (by current mark) - using the assumptions that the topweight is allotted no less than 166 and that each of the Irish-trained are given their current mark +1lb (some are bound to be penalised a little more).
From the model’s perspective, it’s still looking like, while there are obviously some strong contenders carrying 11.00+, the sweet spot remains down the weights.
More anon.
1/2
Weights unveiled tomorrow but they’re unlikely to make any difference to the current top 2 selections by my model.
For preliminary purposes, I’ve run the slide rule over the top 71 by current OR, making the assumption that the topweight runs off GNOR166 in April and every Irish-trained runner is allotted 1lb more than their current mark (some may have more).
By way of an explanation of how the model evaluates the runners, there are 2 equally-important parts:
1. Pedigree
2. CV (Age and Race Record)
PEDIGREE
Handily, of course, pedigrees aren’t subject to the vagaries of such things as Prep Runs and the whim of the handicapper, so we can conduct a preliminary screen of entries regardless of GN weights etc.
That said, an obvious caution. In the GN, as in all horse racing, indeed all walks of life, bloodlines guarantee absolutely nothing. For every Denman, there’s a disappointing full brother (Silverburn) and I know the Molloy family certainly has its peculiar anomalies.
Nonetheless, with 10 races and 395 runners, we have a decent sample now in relation to what type of pedigrees tend to outperform in a “Modern” (post-2012) GN.
The model looks for specific traits in a runner’s pedigree in common with Modern GN winners and frame-makers, that have shown a statistically-material outperformance relative to representation.
These Pedigree traits cover the Sire, the Damside (maternal family) and inbreeding across the pedigree, specifically:
The model rates a runner’s GN Pedigree between 0 and 5 Stars, in rising quality, according by correlation to the pedigrees of Modern GN winners, near-missers and frame-makers.
Among all 395 runners since 2013, only One For Arthur’s pedigree has rated 5 Stars and only 10 horses (running 21 times between them) rated 3~5 Stars. They were:
So, accounting for 5.3% of all runners, they produced 5 (50%) of winners and 3 runners-up (all by <5L). Or put another way, 7 of these 10 horses won or near-missed, when all other conditions suited and fortune smiled.
The key threshold for a Modern GN-winning Pedigree is at least 2 Stars.
Runners with pedigrees rated 2 Stars or more numbered 88 (22.3% of fields) and accounted for:
And when it comes to making the frame, at least 1 Star is statistically significant.
Runners with at least 1 Stars numbered 218 (55% of fields) and contributed 100% of the first 4 home and 96% of the first 5. Only the pedigrees of Rocky Creek (5th 2014) and Shutthefrontdoor (5th 2015) scored 0 Stars – both ran out of gas at the Elbow.
So, to 2024, and a strong reminder that pedigrees guarantee nothing and, in any event, are only half of the equation – a runner’s CV is just as important.
But, of the top 71 entries by current Official Rating, in current OR order, these pass the 2 Star or more threshold (the 11 in BOLD also have CVs that at current ORs put them on my model’s initial Long List):
4 or 5 Stars - none
3 Stars
· I AM MAXIMUS
· Longhouse Poet
· Busselton
· Angel’s Dawn
2 Stars
· NOBLE YEATS
· CONFLATED
· Coko Beach
· Capodanno
· CORACH RAMBLER
· MAHLER MISSION
· Delta Work
· Ain’t That A Shame
· Bronn
· MR INCREDIBLE
· KITTY’S LIGHT
· GEVREY
· GLENGOULY
· Shakem Up’Arry
· PANDA BOY
· ANNUAL INVICTUS
To be Continued .......
2/2
CV
Pedigrees are only half the story when it comes to the model’s ratings.
There are 12 Tests applied to each runner.
There’s a “Pass” formula for each of these tests and, importantly, each is supported by a statistically-meaningful record of outperformance (winners and frame-makers) vs representation, when back-tested against the CVs of the 395 runners that lined up for the 10 “Modern” GNs (post-2012).
For a runner to be a contender to make the frame in a GN, they must fail no more than 2 of the Tests.
In aggregate, the back-tested application of these 12 Tests to all runners in the 10 GNs 2013~2023 shows the following results:
Scoring 0 Fails:
2014: Pineau De Re – WON / Balthazar King – 2nd
2015: Cause Of Causes – 8th 27L as a 7yo
2016: Rule The World – WON / The Last Samuri – 2nd / Saint Are – PU (hated soft ground)
2017: One For Arthur – WON / Cause Of Causes – 2nd
2018: Tiger Roll – WON
2019: Tiger Roll – WON
2023: The Big Breakaway (bad hamp & F 2nd) / Mr Incredible (saddle slipped & UR on flat after 24th fence)
So, these 12 runners that passed all 12 tests represented 3.0% of total fields and produced 50% of the Winners and 30% of runners-up (indeed, they accounted for 1st & 2nd in those 3 races). Only 4 failed to trouble the judge.
Of the remaining 5 GN winners, 4 scored only 1 Fail (Aurora’s Encore, Many Clouds, Minella Times, Corach Rambler) with only Noble Yeats failing 2.
In aggregate, those with 0~2 fails represented 27% of fields and contributed 98% of those finishing 1st~5th. The model’s sole outlier among those 50 frame-makers is last year’s 5th, The Big Dog – a race with more than its fair share of hard-luck stories.
In summary, in trying to identify the top Winning Candidates, the model's looking for:
But, in addition to the 12 Test Screen, there are up to 4 CV-based Pluses that the model looks for as (“icing on the cake”) pointers to GN success, again each supported by statistically-meaningful outperformance vs representation:
CV Pluses are awarded for:
Runners with 1 or more of these CV Pluses numbered 119 (30%) of all fields but contributed:
So, how do those 20 entries with GN-Pedigrees rated 2 Stars or more, or more pertinently the 11 on the Long List, shape up for the 12-Test CV Screen and CV Pluses?
You’ll have to watch this space cos I need a drink. But there are 2 rock solid Winning Candidates from that List that, within reason regardless of their treatment tomorrow and providing they have a safe prep beforehand, will definitely be on my betting slip.
Weights out at 3pm and time to talk turkey.
The first 2 definite selections, with currently the Top 2 Winning Calibre Ratings, are sadly not unfancied but that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
Those ratings are, however, rock solid regardless of the handicapper's pronouncement this afternoon and subject only to a safe spin in a prep anytime up to 23 March. Also, importantly, both runners have the GN as their stated target, prefer decent ground and are very likely to make the cut, so an ante-post interest isn't out of the question.
Indeed, I've reluctantly taken the price for both as they've attracted interest and are liable to shorten further:
PANDA BOY (best ante-post price 22/1) - Model Rating: 2 Test Fails / 2 Pedigree Stars / 1 CV Plus
KITTY'S LIGHT (best ante-post price 25/1) - Model Rating: 2 Test Fails / 2 Pedigree Stars / 1 CV Plus
More later after the handicapper unveils his assessment.
Even if topweight is Noble Yeats on 165, Kittys Light and Panda Boy both on GNOR 146 is perfect.
Will gladly take an extra 3lbs on Panda's Irish mark to make them both (worst-case) #52 and #53 (best-case #46 and #47) in the weights and virtually certain of making the cut.
They'll likely carry 10.03~10.07 - ideal.
My guestimate is the cut is around OR143
Slide rule out again.
More anon.
Full list of weights for the 2024 Grand National
HORSE AGE WEIGHT RATING OWNER TRAINER
1 Hewick (IRE) 9 11 12 169 Mr T. J. McDonald John Joseph Hanlon IRE
2 Conflated (IRE) 10 11 9 166 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
3 Noble Yeats (IRE) 9 11 8 165 Mr Robert Waley-Cohen Emmet Mullins IRE
4 Capodanno (FR) 8 11 4 161 Mr John P. McManus W. P. Mullins IRE
5 Coko Beach (FR) 9 11 4 161 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
6 Nassalam (FR) 7 11 4 161 John and Yvonne Stone Gary Moore
7 Fakir d'Oudairies (FR) 9 11 3 160 Mr John P. McManus Joseph Patrick O'Brien IRE
8 Ash Tree Meadow (FR) 8 11 2 159 Alymer Stud Ltd Gordon Elliott IRE
9 Corach Rambler (IRE) 10 11 2 159 The Ramblers Lucinda Russell
10 I Am Maximus (FR) 8 11 2 159 Mr John P. McManus W. P. Mullins IRE
11 Janidil (FR) 10 11 2 159 Mr John P. McManus W. P. Mullins IRE
12 Minella Indo (IRE) 11 11 2 159 Mr Barry Maloney Henry de Bromhead IRE
13 Asterion Forlonge (FR) 10 11 1 158 Mrs J. Donnelly W. P. Mullins IRE
14 Mahler Mission (IRE) 8 11 1 158 Colm Herron & Rockview Racing Syndicate John McConnell IRE
15 Stattler (IRE) 9 11 1 158 Mr R. A. Bartlett W. P. Mullins IRE
16 Classic Getaway (IRE) 8 11 0 157 Cheveley Park Stud W. P. Mullins IRE
17 Delta Work (FR) 11 11 0 157 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
18 Foxy Jacks (IRE) 10 11 0 157 Ms Rachel Carthy M. F. Morris IRE
19 Threeunderthrufive (IRE) 9 10 13 156 McNeill Family Paul Nicholls
20 Galvin (IRE) 10 10 12 155 Mr R. A. Bartlett Gordon Elliott IRE
21 Farouk d'Alene (FR) 9 10 11 154 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
22 Salvador Ziggy (IRE) 8 10 11 154 William Hurley/Mrs Aisling Hurley Gordon Elliott IRE
23 Eldorado Allen (FR) 10 10 10 153 J P Romans & Terry Warner Joe Tizzard
24 Letsbeclearaboutit (IRE) 9 10 10 153 Alymer Stud Ltd Gavin Cromwell IRE
25 Ain't That A Shame (IRE) 10 10 9 152 Robcour Henry de Bromhead IRE
26 Fury Road (IRE) 10 10 9 152 Sierra Pacific & Pioneer Racing Gordon Elliott IRE
27 James du Berlais (FR) 8 10 9 152 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede W. P. Mullins IRE
28 Bronn (IRE) 7 10 8 151 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede W. P. Mullins IRE
29 Vanillier (FR) 9 10 8 151 Mrs H. M. Keaveney Gavin Cromwell IRE
30 Dusart (IRE) 9 10 7 150 Bartlett & Carthy Nicky Henderson
31 Le Milos (GB) 9 10 7 150 The Jolly Good Partnership Dan Skelton
32 Longhouse Poet (IRE) 10 10 7 150 Sean & Bernardine Mulryan Martin Brassil IRE
33 Mr Incredible (IRE) 8 10 7 150 Paul Byrne & J. Carthy W. P. Mullins IRE
34 Latenightpass (GB) 11 10 6 149 Mrs P. A. Ellis Dan Skelton
35 Minella Crooner (IRE) 8 10 6 149 KTDA Racing/Nick Courtney/Cillian Moran Gordon Elliott IRE
36 Run Wild Fred (IRE) 10 10 6 149 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
37 Adamantly Chosen (IRE) 7 10 5 148 Watch This Space Syndicate W. P. Mullins IRE
38 Chemical Energy (IRE) 8 10 5 148 Bective Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
39 Mac Tottie (GB) 11 10 5 148 Steve & Jackie Fleetham Peter Bowen
40 Favori de Champdou (FR) 9 10 4 147 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
41 Limerick Lace (IRE) 7 10 4 147 Mr John P. McManus Gavin Cromwell IRE
42 Meetingofthewaters (IRE) 7 10 4 147 Mr P. Byrne W. P. Mullins IRE
43 Monbeg Genius (IRE) 8 10 4 147 Barrowman Racing Limited Jonjo O'Neill
44 Roi Mage (FR) 12 10 4 147 Pryde/Van Der Hoeven/McGladery/Beaumont Patrick Griffin IRE
45 The Goffer (IRE) 7 10 4 147 Mr Allan Snow Gordon Elliott IRE
46 Chambard (FR) 12 10 3 146 David & Carol Shaw Venetia Williams
47 Eklat de Rire (FR) 10 10 3 146 Mr P. Davies Henry de Bromhead IRE
48 Embittered (IRE) 10 10 3 146 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
49 Galia des Liteaux (FR) 8 10 3 146 Mr Michael Ariss Dan Skelton
50 Gevrey (FR) 8 10 3 146 Denis Gallagher Racing Gordon Elliott IRE
51 Glengouly (FR) 8 10 3 146 Roaringwater Syndicate W. P. Mullins IRE
52 Kitty's Light (GB) 8 10 3 146 R J Bedford & All Stars Sports Racing Christian Williams
53 Panda Boy (IRE) 8 10 3 146 Old Pals Partnership Martin Brassil IRE
54 Busselton (FR) 7 10 2 145 Mr Michael Hilary Burke Joseph Patrick O'Brien IRE
55 Empire Steel (IRE) 10 10 2 145 Alan Wight Sandy Thomson
56 Fiddlerontheroof (IRE) 10 10 2 145 The Minions Jim Boyle
57 Malina Girl (IRE) 7 10 2 145 Mrs J. M. Russell Gavin Cromwell IRE
58 Desertmore House (IRE) 9 10 1 144 O. B. P. Carroll/Anthony Vaughan Martin Brassil IRE
59 Fantastic Lady (FR) 9 10 1 144 Mr E. R. Hanbury Nicky Henderson IRE
60 Highland Hunter (IRE) 11 10 1 144 Nic Brereton and Lindsey Brennan Fergal O'Brien
61 Kinondo Kwetu (GB) 8 10 1 144 Gunalt Partnership Sam England
62 Fakir d'Alene (FR) 9 10 0 143 Bective Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
63 Ontheropes (IRE) 10 10 0 143 Cheveley Park Stud W. P. Mullins IRE
64 Shakem Up'arry (IRE) 10 10 0 143 Mr Harry Redknapp Ben Pauling
65 Amirite (IRE) 8 9 13 142 Patrick Hale Henry de Bromhead IRE
66 Angels Dawn (IRE) 9 9 13 142 Mr Alfred Sweetnam S. Curling IRE
67 Annual Invictus (IRE) 9 9 13 142 Mr Thomas Michael Smith Chris Gordon
68 Diol Ker (FR) 10 9 13 142 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
69 Riaan (IRE) 7 9 13 142 Philip J. Reynolds Gordon Elliott IRE
70 Sail Away (FR) 8 9 13 142 Mr and Mrs J. D. Cotton Dan Skelton
71 Samcro (IRE) 12 9 13 142 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
72 Macs Charm (IRE) 9 9 12 141 Macs Charm Syndicate Colm A. Murphy IRE
73 Cepage (FR) 12 9 11 140 The Bellamy Partnership Venetia Williams
74 Dunboyne (IRE) 9 9 11 140 S. P. O'Connor Gordon Elliott IRE
75 Iron Bridge (IRE) 8 9 11 140 Hemmings Racing Jonjo O'Neill
76 Tullybeg (IRE) 9 9 11 140 Bective Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
77 Famous Bridge (IRE) 8 9 10 139 Hemmings Racing Nicky Richards
78 Ashtown Lad (IRE) 10 9 9 138 Darren & Annaley Yates Dan Skelton
79 Frontal Assault (IRE) 9 9 9 138 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
80 Mister Coffey (FR) 9 9 9 138 Lady Bamford & Alice Bamford Nicky Henderson
81 Good Boy Bobby (IRE) 11 9 8 137 Dash Grange Stud Nigel Twiston-Davies
82 Tommie Beau (IRE) 9 9 7 136 Simon & Christine Prout Seamus Mullins
83 Revels Hill (IRE) 9 9 6 135 Noel Fehily Racing Syndicates-Revels Hil Harry Fry
84 Where It All Began (IRE) 8 9 6 135 Patrick & Scott Bryceland, McNeill Family Gordon Elliott IRE
85 Moroder (IRE) 10 9 2 131 Mrs Ann Leftley Seamus Mullins
86 Full Back (FR) 9 9 1 130 Mr Ashley Head Gary Moore
87 Minella Trump (IRE) 10 9 1 130 Mr T. G. Leslie Donald McCain
87 entries go forward
56 Irish-trained
NOT QUALIFIED
Battleoverdoyen (IRE), Fakiera (FR), Its On The Line (IRE), Placenet (FR), Royal Thief (IRE), So des Flos (FR).
SCRATCHED
Celebre d'Allen (FR)
29 days between them this year.
In which case, it would definitely be 10.03 for my current top 2.
'Shark' Hanlon reacts to Hewick getting top weight
“I knew he’d have top weight. You have to expect that. He probably deserves top weight.
“I think the trip will suit him. He’s going for the Gold Cup first and please God he comes out of the Gold Cup safe and if he does he’ll definitely head there (to Aintree).
Nassalam has 2 Stars and is one of the Long List flashing away on the radar screen.
Fwiw, 11.04 is my model's concern (even just 2lbs less would make a big difference as per its slide rule). Definitely needs Hewick to run to keep the weights as they are IMHO.
I'd be happier with meaningful cut (Soft better still). The RP quotes Gary Moore after he won a 20f Nov chase late 2021 on quickish GS. "He was hating the ground; it was too quick for him and .... he's a slow-ground horse." He still won it though, of course, and over 4m he just has to not get detached. He clearly had a lot left in the tank at Chepstow and 33/1 certainly looks e/w value.
For me, there's a few candidates on the fringe to weigh up - need to be super-selective this year - but he's one of them for sure.
GNOR169 would be the highest by 2lbs for the topweight in any post-2012 GN - with some early renewals overlapping with the fag end of compression, the average has been 162.6.
Not since the last pre-compression GN of Bobbyjo (1999) has the topweight's mark been 169 or more
Only Tiger Roll in his "Red Rum " win in 2019 (159) and Many Clouds (160, benefitting from 5lbs compression), have won a modern GN with a GNOR > 150. Indeed, take Tiger out of the equation altogether and the highest GNOR for the 7 other winners was 148 (Rule The World with 10.07 and One For Arthur 10.11).
If Hewick is declared on 11 April, we'll have runners rated 156 carrying < 11.00. Bear in mind, Neptune Collonges (OR157) had to carry 11.06 to win it (by a whisker) in 2012.
Since they principally work according not to OR but absolute weight thresholds (as Ruby Walsh once commented, regardless of rating, in a National "every lb over 11 stone becomes harder to carry"), Hewick's participation doesn't affect my model's formulae but it certainly may affect its marginal selections - for example, potentially putting Noble Yeats back in contention to win it again.
It also may deny a run to a couple more at the bottom of the weights if a surprisingly modest weight persuades connections of higher-rated runners (with or without justification) to take their chance.
I'm not too worried about 146 not making it but maybe the cut won't be that far below.
I appreciate he won it (a tad fortunately) with Neptune Collonges but why the hell Nicholls ran Threeunderthrufive the weekend before the GN weights were framed is a total mystery, to me at least.
One of Nicholls' senior lads has fancied him for ages for the GN and that's been the season's target. He'd set 2 career-high chase RPRs in his first 2 runs since wind surgery in the summer, putting him nicely on OR152. That assured a run at Aintree and would have meant a seriously competitive 10.09.
Winning the big Ascot handicap under 12.00 on Saturday made nice prize money of course but put him up to OR156 and 10.13 at least.
Of course, that's not a stopping weight but it certainly don't help and Kittys Light will now have a 9lb pull on the day for beating him by 8L in the Scottish National.
We can bemoan (with certain good reason) the Irish dominance but our biggest yards appear to have waved the white flag.
Rant over.
There are 2 pieces of Aintree form to chew over I think:
1. His season's debut was over the GN fences in November's 21f Grand Sefton on Heavy. They omitted The Chair that day but he jumped the fences cleanly, finishing strongly in 4th (6L) with 3 fence-specialists for competition. Then, of course, in December (off 3lbs higher at OR145) he romped home in the 30.5f Welsh GN also on Heavy.
It's a rare combination for a GN debutant to have both good form over the GN fences and a Class 1 win/near-miss at 28f+.
Of the 395 GN runners since 2013, only 3 fit the bill as GN first-timers:
Vics Canvas (3rd 2016 GN, and might have won but for a breath-taking near-exit and recovery at first Bechers), having near-missed in the 2015 29f Whitbread and Becher Chase.
One For Arthur (winner 2017) had near-missed in that season's Becher Chase before winning the 29f Warwick National
Kimberlite Candy (PU 2021) had a carbon-copy of One For Arthur's form but wasn't able to handle the decent ground of the GN
The only near-qualifier was Vieux Lion Rouge (6th in 2017 GN after his Becher and 28f Grand National Trial wins) though not as a debutant as he'd already run a creditable 7th as a 7yo in the 2016 GN.
And, with Chambard flopping in the recent GNT, Nassalam is the only entry this year that ticks that box, though Latenightpass is a "League One version", as former winner of the Aintree Hunter Chase and December's 29f Class 2 XC at Cheltenham.
On the face of it a big positive for Nassalam though he has a lot more weight to carry that any of these (11.04 assuming Hewick is declared - though that's a winnable-with weight, he would not want a rise). At least the RPR he notched in the Chepstow marathon (4lbs > than his GNOR) is the same +4 margin as Vics Canvas for his Whitbread near-miss, though One For Arthur was +8 > GNOR for his Warwick National win and Kimberlite was +7 for his.
Mark-wise he is running off 16lbs higher than for his Welsh GN romp. Vics Canvas +5lbs on Sandown, One For Arthur was +11lbs on Warwick and Kimberlite Candy +13lbs but the manner and 34L margin of his victory at Chepstow was stunning.
BUT, going-wise, is he a versatile One For Arthur or a Kimberlite Candy in need of soft ground?
2. The second piece of Aintree form may offer a clue:
He ran in the 3m handicap (on the Mildmay Course) on GN day last year, a race often seen as a clue to future GN potential. He struggled to go the pace on GS ("was outpaced 4 out") but, though “weakening before 4 out”, gamely plugged on to come home 7th 19L. They clocked 8 secs slow of standard at an average clip of 15.2 secs per furlong.
By comparison, in one of the slower-time modern GNs on GS, Corach Rambler later clocked 6.6 secs slow of STD at an average clip of 15.9 secs per furlong (of course not the same course and usually watered to be a tad slower than the Mildmay - the goingstick reading was 5.8 for the Mildmay and 5.2 [slower] for the National course that day).
What can we conclude, if anything, from this?
As Tony McCoy once said, nothing drains the stamina from a stayer like being taken along at a faster pace than they like. But, of course, comparing pace over 24f and over 34.5f is to compare apples and oranges. For reference, the fastest pace of any modern GN has been 15.56 spf in Many Clouds' victory in 2015 (7.2 secs fast of STD)
So, what is the GN equivalent pace of 15.2 spf over 24f that may be too quick for Nassalam?
Personally, I don't believe he's a Kimberlite Candy - i.e. a lost cause on any form of GS. But it's fair to say that he probably wouldn't want the going on the GN course to be any quicker than it was last year.
Bearing in mind (presumably) a determined effort to keep the going safe (slow) enough to avoid the problems of last year and, in that vein, the earlier Off time of 4pm and and he may well be in luck.
Of course, there's always the possibility that Mother Nature delivers a Soft-ground GN for the first time since 2018. He'll likely be on my betting slip if so.
More insomnia-curing musings to come.
Interesting day today and, with WH now offering NRNB and 5 places, money’s now down on my model’s 3rd Winning Calibre selection, though not without reservation.
Though Kittys Light wasn’t declared for the Coral Trophy (even free-draining Kempton's going is Soft/Heavy) and now looks likely to have his prep in the Ultima, at 3.50pm today the 25.5f Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse (albeit with the usual small field) sees a very interesting contest between 4 with GN entries.
Since inception, February’s Bobbjo has been the (usually final) prep of choice for many of the Irish runners (particularly those of Willie Mullins) that went on to deliver at Aintree – Hedgehunter (won both 2005), Snowy Morning (3rd in both 2008), Black Apalachi (2nd in both 2009), Oscar Time (3rd & 2nd 2011), The Midnight Club (won & 6th) Rare Bob (5th GN2013), Rathvinden (won & 3rd 2019), Burrows Saint (2nd & 4th 2021), Any Second Now (won & 2nd 2022) and Vanillier (2nd in both 2023) who runs again today, having had a quiet campaign over inadequate trips to date.
The market's made Vanillier hot fav for Aintree, having decided he’s been "thrown in" at the GN weights by the handicapper; raising him only 4lbs for his fast-closing 2L defeat by Corach Rambler (+13lbs).
But IMHO he was flattered by that distance by at least 5L - the winner clearly idling with gas in the tank (as explained previously, the 10L covering the first 6 home, was the shortest of any GN since at least 1988.
With only 10.08 on his back, he's certainly capable of a repeat frame-making run on 15 April but, regardless of how he runs today, my model rates him place material at best.
It also has little interest in either Fury Road or Minella Crooner, each of whom has failed in 2 attempts at >25f.
But I AM MAXIMUS for Willie Mullins is very much of interest on his stat-profile, having a 3 Star GN-Pedigree and, providing the weights don't go up (though a win or near-miss today would offset that risk), a worst-case 2 Test Fails.
A win or near-miss today (he’s 2 wins and a near-miss from 3 chases at Fairyhouse) would make his GN Winning stat-rating immune to a weight-rise and surely shorten his GN price.
Hence decision day for me and I’ve added him at 25s each way to Panda Boy and Kittys Light on my GN ticket.
Will set out the reasoning shortly.
I AM MAXIMUS (“Max”) 11.02 (25/1 WH NRNB 5 places) Model Rating (currently): 2 Test Fails/ 3 Pedigree Stars / 1 CV Plus
· 8 yo, 2nd season chaser (the sweetest of age and experience spots)
· 8 chases to date (5 at Grade 1), completing all despite not being the most fluent jumper, his CV's well known - Irish GN and 2.5m Grade 1 winner as a novice, though he's subsequently come up short against the very best. The form of the Irish GN looks decent enough (9 runners winning since)
· It was his staying-on 4th up The Hill in last Festival's Brown Advisory that prompted JP to acquire him shortly before the Fairyhouse marathon. JP knows a staying pedigree alright and Max’s is also of particular interest to my GN model, as it bears several uncommon characteristics, remarkably similar to Tiger Roll’s:
· That's all fine and dandy but even identical pedigrees don't guarantee the same talents or temperament, let alone results on a racecourse and, as a GN betting proposition, there is a important reservation about Max.
He isn’t the most fluent of jumpers, especially early in races, though Rough Quest (famously), Pineau De Re and Tiger Roll were all considered not the best of jumpers prior to winning the big one. And Max's fencing tends to warm up and gain fluency when asked to quicken and dig in at the business end, to which he's responded gamely hitherto.
But it’s the way he ran early on in the Irish GN that poses a concern for Aintree.
Like all his backers a year ago, I'd metaphorically torn up my betting slip after a mile of the race. Having to be urged on early and throughout the first circuit and still looking a forlorn hope as they came off the back straight, it was a remarkable win that, indeed, showed his abundant stamina and finishing speed but also owed hugely to a truly great ride from Paul Townend, who may or may not partner him at Aintree.
As JP said : "I must complement Paul for the ride he gave I Am Maximus because if he were listening to me I'd have said pull him up after going a mile. He dug in and stayed very well." And, once he took an interest in proceedings approaching the home bend, IAM really did dig in and battle his way up the home straight to grab the lead 50 yards from the line.
The problem is, if he does that in a GN, certainly one on quickish ground, he'll likely never see the leaders again. But, the last time ignored my model's ratings for jumping concerns I gave Tiger Roll the swerve in 2018 and I subsequently vowed I'd never do so again.
· Quickish ground (though for obvious reasons, Aintree will be determined to make sure its got plenty of juice) is an unknown for Max. He's won on GS over hurdles at 2m and near-missed over fences on Yielding at 2.5m but would probably be best-suited by Soft or at least a mix of GS & Soft. He'll be a mutual hedge with Kittys Light on the betting slip, preferred going-wise.
· Today's run in the Bobbyjo will be his 4th of the campaign and likely last prior to Aintree (49 days prior) – perfect, stats-wise.
Though others flashing away on the edge of the radar screen could make a late-run, those down to GNOR143 representing the current short list, from which I'll add potentially 2 to I Am Maximus, Panda Boy and Kittys Light (in weights' order):
Winning Calibre Stat-rating (0~2 Test Fails & 2+ Pedigree Stars):
- Nassalam [borderline] 11.04 (weights' dependent) (33/1) - see previous post for model's assessment
- Galvin 10.12 (weights' dependent and wants decent ground) (20/1) - Grade 1 winner, won Cheltenham Festival 30f Nov Chase & close 2nd XC, unfortunate early hamp & UR last year, potentially thrown-in with 10.12
- Mr Incredible 10.07 (run dependent) (40/1) - close 2nd 2023 Warwick National & unfortunate saddle slip last year, related to Bonanza Boy (Welsh GN winner & 5th GN 1991)
- Gevrey 10.03 (50/1) - 8yo Spring-ground lover, keeping-on close 2nd Irish GN to Max & won October’s Munster National
- Glengouly 10.03 (50/1) - 8yo, 2nd season chaser, close 2nd Thyestes, related to Raz De Maree (Welsh GN winner & cl 2nd) and linebred to Wild Risk with X-Factor
Place Potential (0~2 Test Fails & 1 Pedigree Star):Cruised past them in the home straight but nearly fluffed the last.
Max slashed to 10/1 Jt Fav for the GN.
There will be heart-in-mouth moments over the fences but hopefully he’ll come to like Aintree as much as he does Fairyhouse.
Great point.
They usually flop when I back them on spec.
It's one thing for the bookies to react as they have but another for a horse then to attract money and I doubt that he'll go off fav. His jumping will put off enough people and something's bound to come out of the Festival.
Meetingofthewaters in the Ultima or Minella Indo in the XC maybe.
That's the highest RPR accorded to any BJ winner since inception 21 years ago, beating Any Second Now's RPR167 in 2022.
Any Second Now was 2L 2nd to Noble Yeats 7 weeks later at Aintree carrying 11.08 off the same GNOR allotted to I Am Maximus of 159.
Max will carry just 11.02 if Hewick is declared to run as planned.
But will he handle the fences and the occasion?
- Irish GN (April 2023) - I Am Maximus (won, GNOR +10lbs), Gevrey (1L 2nd +12lbs), Panda Boy (8L 5th +6lbs, Chemical Energy PU, The Goffer PU, Busselton PU
- 9 of 27 runners have subsequently won (I Am Maximus x2), scoring 11 wins from 95 runs Under Rules = 11.6% Win Rate (though not a winner, Panda Boy was close 2nd in PP Hdcp)
The comparable stats prior to the 2023 Aintree GN for the 2022 Irish GN (in which last year's Aintree 3rd Gaillard Du Mesnil +1lb was 7L 3rd):- Welsh GN (Dec 2023) - Nassalam (won by 34L, +16lbs)
- 13 of the 19 runners (but not Nassalam) have run since - 0 wins from 17 = 0% to date
The comparable stats prior to the 2023 Aintree GN for Dec 2022 Welsh GN (in which last year's GN5th The Big Dog +11lbs was 6L 3rd):- Paddy Power Handicap (Dec 2023) - Meetingofthewaters (won, +17lbs), Panda Boy (4L 2nd, +6lbs), James Du Berlais (10L 4th +4lbs), Busselton (12L 6th -1lb), Adamantly Chosen (32L 10th, +0lbs)
- 19 of the 27 runners have run since - 0 wins from 21 runs = 0% to date (though not a winner, Panda Boy was subsequently 2L 4th in Listed 3m hurdle)
The comparable stats prior to the ensuing 2022 Aintree GN for the 2021 PP Hdcp (Noble Yeats 9th prior to GN win +5lbs):- 23 of the 28 runners had run prior to 9 April, 6 winners, 6 wins from 53 runs = 11.3%
And for 2020 PP Hdcp prior to the 2021 GN (Minella Times 4L 2nd prior to winning the GN +10lbs and Farclas 10L 3rd was GN5th +3lbs):- Ultima Chase (Mar 2023) - Corach Rambler (won & subs GN, +13lbs on both), Monbeg Genius (2L 3rd, +7lbs), The Goffer (11L 4th -2lbs), Threeunderthrufive (32L 8th, +6lbs, Nassalam 34L 10th +17lbs)
We know the form of the race is excellent but for the current record to date:
- 9 of 23 runners have won since, 12 wins in 89 runs = 13.5%
Of course, Corach Rambler also won a strong 2022 Ultima, in which subsequent GN winner Noble Yeats was 20L 9th off his GNOR147Conclusions as to Form:
- Irish GN 2023 - DECENT FORM with 11.6% Win Rate, about x2 comparable rate for recent Irish GNs. None are weighted to reverse form with I Am Maximus though both Gevrey & Panda Boy could be relatively better on a decent surface and Chemical Energy certainly would
- Welsh GN 2023 - time for stats to change but winless & form NOT PROMISING to date, though Nassalam beat them by a country mile but is 16lbs higher for it
- Paddy Power Hdcp 2023 - time for stats to change but winless & form NOT PROMISING to date and Meetingofthewaters (UR at 1st in only run since) has been hiked 17lbs for the GN
- Ultima 2024 - clearly a race that many will view as a key GN trial. Those with Aintree entries (certain or a chance of making the cut) and currently quoted <33/1 for the Ultima:
If the Ultima is his chosen Festival race, my e/w shilling will be on GLENGOULY
Irish handicapper sees I Am Maximus' Bobbyjo win as a 6lb improvement and raises him to Irish OR164.
With the GN in mind, lots of key races ahead at the Festival, obviously. The XC will likely be the most competitive for years and particularly relevant to the GN chances (and odds) of several of the higher quality Aintree hopefuls. More anon.
However, as an appetiser, we have the Leinster National at Naas tomorrow. Oscar Time and Rare Bob ran in it as their preps in 2013 prior to placing at Aintree. Goonyella did likewise in 2016 and there's a 100/1 outsider for Aintree that's flashing away on my model's radar screen that runs tomorrow.
BRONN - a 7yo Mullins-charge, in his second season chasing has been overmatched at Grade 1 in his fencing career to date, though far from disgraced when 3rd (4L) behind The Real Whacker (ahead of I Am Maximus) in the Brown Advisory and Geri Colombe over Aintree's Mildmay course a day before last year's GN - the form of both races looking decent.
This season, particularly his first chase in handicap company (Thyestes, PU) has been a disappointment but may be down to the Heavy ground he's encountered in his 3 runs and to a knock he sustained in his seasonal bow in November, when travelling well.
The poor form has shaved 4lbs off his OR for Aintree [151] and with potentially only 10.08 to carry there, he could be nicely in for his first attempt beyond 25f.
Pedigree-wise, he ticks some interesting boxes for the marathon trip, which I'll explain if he scores or near-misses tomorrow. For that's what's required to give his GN-rating the required boost to be of interest.
He's topweight tomorrow (though a claimer takes off 5lbs) and a 12/1 shot. Drying ground would help and if he does the business, that 100/1 for Aintree will obviously be a distant memory.
Decisions, decisions!!
Sign on bookies door this morning - "Sunday opening 11-4". I've had a tenner on it as I'm certain they were open last Sunday
A win or near-miss tomorrow will confirm frame-making potential (according to my model) at his GNOR 151.
If he fails to fire, I suspect he’ll not be lining up at Aintree.
PU with a circuit left. Clearly something amiss, mental or physical - a great shame for a promising youngster.
Not a chance of him heading to Aintree - he barely got over the first 3 fences.
Onwards and upwards.
Both need a run and will have been tuned to deliver. Neither will now figure on my betting slip; nor in any event would have Minella Indo, Coko Beach or Foxy Jacks.
It's looking more and more like I Am Maximus alone will have the star Winning Rating from my model's perspective - but beware those slings and arrows.
One running today that, with others dropping off the radar screen, now carries an each way shilling or two of mine and which my model rates as Strong Place Potential at Aintree, providing a safe spin this pm:
GLENGOULY (50/1 NRNB) - set to carry 10.03, he barely gets a mention among the strong Willie Mullins team for Aintree. Indeed, he may or may not be targeted at Fairyhouse instead though, for a Mullins rather than an Elliott steed, 18 days would seem a short turnaround after running this afternoon (4.10pm).
Ordinarily today's 20f trip would be too short but the testing ground (more rain expected at lunchtime) will suit and a strong show might prompt greater prominence in GN market.
- 8yo 2nd season chaser, unexposed beyond 25f and set to carry 10.03 (the sweetest of spots)
- Made all and staying on close 2nd in January's Thyestes on heavy and is probably suited by slower ground but twice a winner on Yielding suggests he'd handle GS
- His pedigree has some unusual aspects and indicates he could be at his best over a marathon trip: