Hewick remains in but, of course, we know he's probably to run in the Bowl.
The cut could come higher than anticipated.
Kitty's Light and Glengouly (and indeed Panda Boy) are all GNOR146 and need at least 9 (and Kitty's perhaps up to 14) above them to be scratched to get a run.
Hmm. If we're regularly only going to have 2 runners making the cut with Winning Calibre ratings, allowing for the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, the cut in field size is going to start screwing with the trends.
Where does that leave us with your model's tipped horses please? Is it time to get onboard before the prices start falling?
Firstly, as the replacement for Panda Boy, took the plunge on the now 5th-best rated (possible) runner:
- GALIA DES LITEAUX (50/1) #44 (OR146)
an 8yo in her second season
chasing (the sweet spot) with 9 chases to her name, she's mixed it as a novice
3 times in Grade 1 company. They include both Cheltenham and Aintree 3m novice show
pieces last season, in which she travelled and jumped well in both [notably on
quickish GS on the Mildmay course at the GN meeting], racing prominently
before being exposed for lack of gears by top class rivals at the business end,
most notably Gerri Colombe (close 2nd in Friday's Gold Cup).
her forte for stamina was revealed in January when a strong-finishing
close 2nd (1L) in the Warwick National under 11.10 on Soft ground - the race
won by One For Arthur prior to his 2017 GN win. That run matched her career-high RPR153 (+7 on her GNOR) and, conceding 20lbs to winner My Silver Lining (close 3rd in Saturday's Midlands National), on paper gives her a small advantage at the the GN weights with Mr Incredible
Pedigree has some notable linebreeding (i.e. inbred via son and daughter), both to Wild Risk and one of the Big Heart Gene conveyors, Princequillo
From the in-form yard of Dan Skelton, he noted after a 3m chase victory on heavy last season that she "wants slow ground". Far be it from me to qualify the trainer but IMHO she travelled perfectly well last April on the GS she'll likely encounter again at Aintree and I wouldn't expect her to race anything other than handy, as usual. 24f on GS may be too short but the 34f trip could be perfect for her on that ground, at least to be in business for a place. But, naturally, the softer it is the better.
But she's another of the GNOR146 brigade that already represents 50% of my GN team and she too needs at least 9 above them to defect by Declarations to make the cut. After just 4 being scratched yesterday (and none from above 146), that's looking more touch and go than I'd anticipated.
So, I've also made some precautionary, tactical bets today as I'm concerned that prices are further squeezed before getting a handle on whether OR146 (and specifically Kittys Light, Glengouly and Galia) are likely to make the cut.
If they don't, it would leave my interests in the race as just I Am Maximus and Mr Incredible and, while they'll still be the model's top 2 selections, a dry weather forecast for early April points to nothing softer than GS, on which I Am Maximus's jumping and sometimes lazy style of racing is liable to make him more vulnerable to misfortune.
I'm buggered if, having expended a huge and divorce-threatening amount of time crunching the stats, I'm going to risk having only 1 or even none still in the race at halfway, so I've made 3 cash-outable NRNB e/w bets with Bet365 on those with the Next Best stat-ratings (3 test fails and at least 1 Pedigree Plus). They're immune to the probable weights rise and need at most 3 above them to be scratched to make the cut.
All 3 also have Irish GN entries, so may or may not head to Aintree but if they do and Kitty's Light, Glengouly and Galia Des Liteaux yet make the cut, I'll have some heavy pruning to do. Otherwise, one or more of them will join the top 2 on my final team come 13 April.
They are: - CHEMICAL ENERGY (25/1) #36 (OR148)
an 8yo, effectively a 2nd season chaser (Apr 2022) with just 7 chases to his name, he was a slightly fortunate 2nd (3L behind subsequent GN 5th Gaillard Du Mesnil) in last
season's 30f Novice Chase at the Festival but it was a fine run nonetheless on unfavoured Soft ground. He'll have a 10lb weight advantage on Mahler Mission, who fell at the 2nd last when about 6L clear of him that day and may or may not have maintained that margin to the line.
he matched his career-high chase RPR154 that day, first attained the previous October when handing Mahler Mission a 61L thrashing on Good ground over 3m, also at Cheltenham
disappointing PU in last April's Irish GN but the ground was very testing (only 6 finished)
Pedigree has some particularly
interesting angles for a marathon trip:
from the family of Whats Up Boys (close 2nd 2002 GN)
and the "Fairyhouse Red Rum", x3 Irish GN winner of the 1970s Brown Lad
shares his damsire
Flemensfirth with Noble Yeats (Flemensfirth also sired GN runners-up The
Last Samuri and Magic Of Light)
like Mr Incredible, he's inbred to the same 2 Big Heart gene conveyors (Princequillo and Mahmoud) via their female offspring (X chromosome bestowers)
His stat fails stem primarily from a light campaign and 206-day break prior to Aintree - his solitary outing being 10L behind winner Desertmore House in September's Kerry National. On the plus side, the form of that race looks very respectable, with 7 of the 17 runners winning or near-missing subsequently. His 33% frame-making record after 99+ day breaks is a bit of a worry but there's no single "killer" stat and only 5 GN winners and 3 runners-up had 0 stat fails.
One of Gordon Elliott's battalion, he'll relish better ground and, even with Hewick's defection, would carry just 10.08 or 10.09.
a 7yo mare, home bred by Mrs JP, and full sister to impressive KM winner
Inothewayurthinkin. Their sire, Walk In The Park, has had only 1 GN representative to
date, Walk In The Mill (4th 2018), while their Dam (Sway) was a serial winner in Listed company (8 from 18 hurdles and chases here and in France) and is proving a force of a broodmare
2nd damsire, Video Rock, was damsire of Saint Are and Delta Work, and Limerick Lace is materially linebred to Bold Ruler, sire of Secretariat and considered to endow his offspring with toughness
in 10 chases, Limerick Lace has only twice finished outside the first 2, winning 5. She duly won the 20f Mare's chase last week as Fav (matching career-high chase RPR153) and could be seriously well-in for
her first attempt beyond 24f - she was a staying-on close 2nd in November's Troytown (OR141) in her only run to date at 3m behind Coko Beach (who won again subsequently off 8lbs higher OR)
4 runs in the season (3 wins and a near-miss), the last 29 days prior is perfect
set to carry 10.07 or 10.08, it's 53 years since a mare won the GN but the sample isn't large and, until Noble Yeats, it had been 82 years since a 7yo had won
she also holds an entry for the Irish GN
and, as a 7yo and with JP strongly represented at Aintree, she may well
head to Fairyhouse on Easter Monday
- ADAMANTLY CHOSEN (33/1) #35 (OR148)
another 7yo second season chaser but he's been busy with 12 chases to date, overmatched but managing a couple of 2nds in novice Grade 1 company for much of last term before coming of age when winning Sunday's 26f chase at Down
Royal, setting a new chase RPR high 152 at the furthest trip he's attempted. This race was the prep for Nil Desperandum (a contributor of yesteryear
to Molloy family funds) in 2005 and 06, prior to his GN placings and for Roi Mage
last year prior to his GN 7th.
Stamina evident in his pedigree:
he comes from a family steeped in staying credentials and is closely related (within 5 Generations) to no less than x2 Irish GN winners (Royal Approach and Feathered Gale) and x2 Whitbread (now Bet365) Gold Cup winners, Harwell Lad and Hadrians Approach.
his 2nd Damsire (Mandalus) was DS of GN3rd Bless The Wings and his 3rd DS (Crash Course) sired GN winner Rough Quest and near-misser Romany King
if Hewick is scratched he'll carry 10.08 or 10.09 at Aintree but he too holds an entry for the Irish GN (and the Topham) and, as Mullins is very much "on" for a National Double this spring, he may well be routed to Fairyhouse.
May all seem a bit OTT to add these 3 back-up wagers but I want to have reversible options down the card and, with Noble Yeats and Corach Rambler (at much shorter prices of course), they represent the 5 Next Best rated at OR147+ in the line-up, according to my model.
Hewick remains in but, of course, we know he's probably to run in the Bowl.
The cut could come higher than anticipated.
Kitty's Light and Glengouly (and indeed Panda Boy) are all GNOR146 and need at least 9 (and Kitty's perhaps up to 14) above them to be scratched to get a run.
Hmm. If we're regularly only going to have 2 runners making the cut with Winning Calibre ratings, allowing for the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, the cut in field size is going to start screwing with the trends.
Where does that leave us with your model's tipped horses please? Is it time to get onboard before the prices start falling?
Funny you should ask that @meldrew66 Please see my last post. To summarise, with a 3lb weight rise, the top ratings from my model belong to:
I Am Maximus
Mr Incredible
Kittys Light
Glengouly
Galia Des Liteaux
However, the last 3 may not make the cut and so I've made 3 more tactical (cash-outable) e/w bets on 3 from my model’s Next Best list (of 5 at OR147+) which are Chemical Energy, Limerick Lace and Adamantly Chosen. They should make the cut but the last 2 may be routed to Fairyhouse. Of course, if they are it helps the chances of some of the original 3 making it.
Either way, nearer to Confirmations on Monday 8 April, I'll be pruning the book to leave me with the 5 best-rated that appear very likely to run.
Blimey. Just caught up with the latest scratchings for the Irish GN and it seems all guns are very much pointed at Aintree. Mullins is relying on Nick Rockett to bring home the bacon at Fairyhouse and has taken out all of his also with Aintree GN entries, including Adamantly Chosen and Glengouly, who both also have entries for the Topham. Limerick Lace and, as expected, Chemical Energy also scratched from Fairyhouse. Indeed, only 2 horses entered for the Aintree GN with ORs 147+ (Farouk D’Alene and Favori De Champdou) remain in the Irish version. The cut for the Aintree GN is looking more touch and go by the day for those below OR147.
It will be a sad day if the cut in field size results in the likes of Kitty’s Light never having a tilt.
So, of those allotted OR147+ for the GN, we have the 2 Elliott runners (Farouk D'Alene and Favori De Champdou) presumably set to run in the Irish GN and entered in the Topham we have Adamantly Chosen (Mullins), Fury Road (Elliott), James Du Berlais (Mullins), Mac Tottie (Bowen) and The Goffer (Elliott). They are the best-rated among 7 Topham entries for Mullins and 6 for Elliott. As they are the best-rated of those entries and there are 65 in total, if they are seeking to maximise prize money from the meeting, they may well run on the Friday. I assume Mac Tottie intends to run in the GN unless the ground goes too testing (that looks unlikely) and let's assume that nether Irish GN runner of Elliotts show up for the Aintree version 12 days later, though that's perfectly possible. I find it hard to believe that Bronn (Mullins) or Salvador Ziggy (Elliott) will run after their last runs which clearly evidenced a problem, but who knows? Same goes for Longhouse Poet but he may be Brassil's only possible runner. Even if those 3 do come out and assuming that Hewick is indeed scratched, barring late niggles I make it at most 10 defections from the 42 currently above OR146. That would give 2 of the 7 on OR146 a run, to be determined in the first instance by updated ORs. Both Chambard and Kitty's Light have dropped 1lb since the weights were allotted while the Irish runners Glengouly, Eklat De Rire and Embittered all failed to varying degrees at the Festival. The 2 that haven't run since the weights were allotted (Panda Boy and Galia Des Liteaux) will be unchanged of course on OR146, though Glengouly appears with them at the top of the updated card numbers, so his mark has presumably also remained on 146 (FWIW, Glengouly's Irish mark remained on 145, Eklat De Rire's dropped 4lbs to 142 and Embittered's 5lbs to 141). If so, it would be from among those 3 that the last 2 make the cut, presumably by ballot. And, of course, no Reserves any more for the GN.
Hard cheese to the x2 winner (and 1 near-misser) over 4m+ Kitty's Light and, if only 8 of those at 147+ are scratched, ditto Panda Boy.
The irony is that Kitty's was rated OR147 prior to his one and only chase this season prior to the weights, the Hennessy. Williams no doubt thought 146 would be good enough (and perhaps it still will be) but why chance your GN-targeted steed with a high-ish 140s mark in a chase in future when it may cost them their tilt at the big one? Or indeed after the weights?
If the handicapper is incapable of distinguishing in his GNOR assessments appropriate marks at 24f from those at 29f+ to accommodate specialist top stayers, they need to introduce qualifying races (subject to a minimum mark) IMHO. Otherwise, the unique properties of the race really are pretty much emasculated and, of importance only to me, I may as well consign my model and method to the dustbin.
PS If these estimates prove correct, we're looking at at least 26 (more than 3/4) of the runners being Irish-trained. In 2015 it was 8/40 (20%).
1. Call me cynical but, given that it's seemingly turned into a naked prize-money grabbing exercise (not just winning but filling as many of the places as possible) and with so many of the entries spread down the weights, of course it's open to either Mullins or Elliott to keep a runner in simply to exclude the fancied Panda Boy. Adamantly Chosen or The Goffer (who patently will not get the trip) running for you or permit a contender running for another? And, without reserves, all you have to do is declare them of course.
2. If my estimates prove correct, it will effectively mean #47 in the weights at the weights-unveiling is the last to make the cut. Only 13 (28%) will have defected from those top 47. Of course we have 6 fewer runners but these are the last (by order at weights) to make the cut and the % defections from above since 2010:
2010:
78 (OR139) 48%
2011:
69 (OR132) 42%
2012:
72 (OR137) 44%
2013:
75 (OR131) 47%
2014:
79 (OR138) 49%
2015:
68 (OR139) 41%
2016:
58 (OR145) 31%
2017:
69 (OR143) 42%
2018:
76 (OR142) 47%
2019: 72 (OR142) 44%
2021: 61 (OR145) 34%
2022:
70 (OR142) 43%
2023: 67 (OR137) 40%
arithmetic
ave: 71 44%
It would indeed indicate that a greater proportion of the connections of higher-rated entries (regardless of the distance at which those ratings have been earned) have been incentivised, presumably by both prize money and now the cut in field size, to take their chance. No doubt, the BHA and Aintree authorities will laud the accomplishment. I (and I suspect most other GN fruitcakes) shall not.
Peanuts As you suggest there could be a lot of manipulation by the big stables to maximise their earnings and we could even end up with less than 34 runners. It would be a real shame if horses that have a decent chance are balloted out due to tactics by the big battalions.
Peanuts As you suggest there could be a lot of manipulation by the big stables to maximise their earnings and we could even end up with less than 34 runners. It would be a real shame if horses that have a decent chance are balloted out due to tactics by the big battalions.
Certainly got the potential for it and more incentive than ever. Doesn’t always pan out as badly as the cynical fear but you can bet if it doesn’t happen this year it will at some point in the future. The mass withdrawal from Fairyhouse makes it plain that the Aintree GN is the honeypot.
Personally I want to see the best horses run in the race, so if that means the higher weighted run good for me.
Me too, but the best horses for a 34f steeplechase, not “best” by ratings for the most part established at 24f.
That, after all, is why it’s the one race in which the handicapper has discretion to vary the ORs.
Former handicappers used that discretion to ensure specialists (the likes of Amberleigh House) got a run. Especially with 6 fewer runners now, they should be looking to do so again IMHO.
Anyone care to guess how many horses were Irish trained just over 20 years ago when Monty's Pass won in 2003? Just 4. Unlike the Derby, the GN used to be a realisitc dream for the "man" in the street who owned in full, or in part, a horse that had a chance of winning on what is the people's annual race. Sadly, that's not the case any more.
Having all the better quality horses running in the GN means that there is a minimal chance of the small owner/trainer, let alone one that is from this side of the water, having a runner in the GN let alone one that has a chance of winning. If 34 of the top 41 rated horses were to partake then a maximum of 6 would have been trained here - that's as many as Gigginstown alone own in that top 41. In the next 20 at the weights there are 11 British trained horses which serves to demonstrate how the Irish monopolise the very best animals and how those owners have become reliant on Irish withdrawals to get a run.
Anyone care to guess how many horses were Irish trained just over 20 years ago when Monty's Pass won in 2003? Just 4. Unlike the Derby, the GN used to be a realisitc dream for the "man" in the street who owned in full, or in part, a horse that had a chance of winning on what is the people's annual race. Sadly, that's not the case any more.
Having all the better quality horses running in the GN means that there is a minimal chance of the small owner/trainer, let alone one that is from this side of the water, having a runner in the GN let alone one that has a chance of winning. If 34 of the top 41 rated horses were to partake then a maximum of 6 would have been trained here - that's as many as Gigginstown alone own in that top 41. In the next 20 at the weights there are 11 British trained horses which serves to demonstrate how the Irish monopolise the very best animals and how those owners have become reliant on Irish withdrawals to get a run.
And the simple fact is that, if Red Rum were having his first entry in the race today (with its current appeal and bias to top 3 milers), he probably wouldn't make the cut. And the rest wouldn't have been history. It's still a great spectacle but in every relevant way, from whatever angle one views it, the unique character of the race has gradually been emasculated, year by year, change by change, £100k by £100k of prize money, by the "upgrade in quality".
Why do the Irish monopolise the best? Or how? Always a pertinent question. I think the British game is deficient at many basic levels - as AA alluded to on the Cheltenham thread last week, I believe, all the priciest horses go to Ireland. The training is better there; the setups; pretty much all of it. And clodhopper races over there have way more prize money than the class 4/5/6s over here.
As it stands, I can't wait to see all the big stable runners left in to manipulate the situation pull up ahead of Becher's Brook on the 2nd circuit or whatever. A real shame.
What I don’t get is if now looks like Panda Boy and kitty’s Light are going to get in, why have their odds fallen in recent days?
If you back them NRNB (most bookies are NRNB now) you get your money back if they don’t run for whatever reason.
Even if you back them antepost (I.e. not NRNB) you get your money back if they are declared (at the Declaration Stage on Thursday 11Apr) if they don’t make the cut.
Both highly likely to be declared if they’re fit to run.
What I don’t get is if now looks like Panda Boy and kitty’s Light are going to get in, why have their odds fallen in recent days?
If you back them NRNB (most bookies are NRNB now) you get your money back if they don’t run for whatever reason.
Even if you back them antepost (I.e. not NRNB) you get your money back if they are declared (at the Declaration Stage on Thursday 11Apr) if they don’t make the cut.
Both highly likely to be declared if they’re fit to run.
Thanks Peanuts, I thought I’d read you say they were both unlikely to make the cut. To be fair, I have been pissed a lot lately… :-)
What I don’t get is if now looks like Panda Boy and kitty’s Light are going to get in, why have their odds fallen in recent days?
If you back them NRNB (most bookies are NRNB now) you get your money back if they don’t run for whatever reason.
Even if you back them antepost (I.e. not NRNB) you get your money back if they are declared (at the Declaration Stage on Thursday 11Apr) if they don’t make the cut.
Both highly likely to be declared if they’re fit to run.
Thanks Peanuts, I thought I’d read you say they were both unlikely to make the cut. To be fair, I have been pissed a lot lately… :-)
It is touch and go for either to make the cut but particularly for Kitty’s Light. But all NRNB and probably all antepost punters will get their stakes back if so. Cheers.
He would have had 11.02 or 11.03 to carry with the weight rise but not helped by running him the weekend before the weights were set and the win costing him a 4lb rise. Even so if’s a surprise if the owner were keen on the GN and one of Nicholls’ own team reckons he’s a GN horse. Just confirms the impression Nicholls, like Henderson, has never taken the race seriously.
And they wonder why owners put their horses with Mullins.
It guarantees Chemical Energy a run. 1 more for Limerick Lace. 9 more will guarantee Panda Boy a run, though 7 might just do it. 12 more gives Kitty’s Light a tilt.
I think I must have mistaken a clutch of defections last Tuesday for the usual post-Cheltenham Forfeit Stage. In fact it’s tomorrow so perhaps a bit more hope for Kitty’s Light. We’ll see how many from the Top 47 join Hewick and Threeunderthrufive as scratchings.
Letsbeclearaboutit is one that’s said to be doubtful by Gavin Cromwell.
Might they also include Conflated, which would add another 1lb to the weights? Glengouly seems to have been attracting some each way support, into 33s with several bookies.
No doubt in my mind that the Irish trainers will keep their unfancied horses in to maximise their own chances. Cynical I know but that is how I see it.
Looks like those scratched from the top 47 today are:
Letsbeclearaboutit Longhouse Poet James Du Berlais Monbeg Genius
Looks like 3underthru5 is still in but we (and bookies) assume won't run
A few more lower down
Will shortly do a tot up, also in light of Irish GN definites and Topham possibles of where that leaves the likely cut but initial reckoning makes 1 of The Goffer or Roi Mage (or Favori De Champdou, due to run at Fairyhouse) on OR147 as the new #34 and guaranteed a run.
Apologies, bear with. Ash Tree Meadow and Salvador Ziggy are also out. They weren't in first list of 17 scratchings but appear to have been added and are now gone from card. Reworking the numbers.
PS. Seems that Ash Tree Meadow hadn't qualified, not sure of official reason for Ziggy but has to be the right decision after he bled, definitely in penultimate and probably also last run.
Comments
Firstly, as the replacement for Panda Boy, took the plunge on the now 5th-best rated (possible) runner:
- GALIA DES LITEAUX (50/1) #44 (OR146)
- From the in-form yard of Dan Skelton, he noted after a 3m chase victory on heavy last season that she "wants slow ground". Far be it from me to qualify the trainer but IMHO she travelled perfectly well last April on the GS she'll likely encounter again at Aintree and I wouldn't expect her to race anything other than handy, as usual. 24f on GS may be too short but the 34f trip could be perfect for her on that ground, at least to be in business for a place. But, naturally, the softer it is the better.
But she's another of the GNOR146 brigade that already represents 50% of my GN team and she too needs at least 9 above them to defect by Declarations to make the cut.After just 4 being scratched yesterday (and none from above 146), that's looking more touch and go than I'd anticipated.
So, I've also made some precautionary, tactical bets today as I'm concerned that prices are further squeezed before getting a handle on whether OR146 (and specifically Kittys Light, Glengouly and Galia) are likely to make the cut.
If they don't, it would leave my interests in the race as just I Am Maximus and Mr Incredible and, while they'll still be the model's top 2 selections, a dry weather forecast for early April points to nothing softer than GS, on which I Am Maximus's jumping and sometimes lazy style of racing is liable to make him more vulnerable to misfortune.
I'm buggered if, having expended a huge and divorce-threatening amount of time crunching the stats, I'm going to risk having only 1 or even none still in the race at halfway, so I've made 3 cash-outable NRNB e/w bets with Bet365 on those with the Next Best stat-ratings (3 test fails and at least 1 Pedigree Plus). They're immune to the probable weights rise and need at most 3 above them to be scratched to make the cut.
All 3 also have Irish GN entries, so may or may not head to Aintree but if they do and Kitty's Light, Glengouly and Galia Des Liteaux yet make the cut, I'll have some heavy pruning to do. Otherwise, one or more of them will join the top 2 on my final team come 13 April.
They are:
- CHEMICAL ENERGY (25/1) #36 (OR148)
- disappointing PU in last April's Irish GN but the ground was very testing (only 6 finished)
Pedigree has some particularly interesting angles for a marathon trip:- like Mr Incredible, he's inbred to the same 2 Big Heart gene conveyors (Princequillo and Mahmoud) via their female offspring (X chromosome bestowers)
His stat fails stem primarily from a light campaign and 206-day break prior to Aintree - his solitary outing being 10L behind winner Desertmore House in September's Kerry National. On the plus side, the form of that race looks very respectable, with 7 of the 17 runners winning or near-missing subsequently. His 33% frame-making record after 99+ day breaks is a bit of a worry but there's no single "killer" stat and only 5 GN winners and 3 runners-up had 0 stat fails.One of Gordon Elliott's battalion, he'll relish better ground and, even with Hewick's defection, would carry just 10.08 or 10.09.
- LIMERICK LACE (20/1 Bet365, 25/1 elsewhere) #37 (OR147)
Pedigree first:
- ADAMANTLY CHOSEN (33/1) #35 (OR148)
- another 7yo second season chaser but he's been busy with 12 chases to date, overmatched but managing a couple of 2nds in novice Grade 1 company for much of last term before coming of age when winning Sunday's 26f chase at Down
Royal, setting a new chase RPR high 152 at the furthest trip he's attempted. This race was the prep for Nil Desperandum (a contributor of yesteryear
to Molloy family funds) in 2005 and 06, prior to his GN placings and for Roi Mage
last year prior to his GN 7th.
Stamina evident in his pedigree:May all seem a bit OTT to add these 3 back-up wagers but I want to have reversible options down the card and, with Noble Yeats and Corach Rambler (at much shorter prices of course), they represent the 5 Next Best rated at OR147+ in the line-up, according to my model.
More anon.
Please see my last post.
To summarise, with a 3lb weight rise, the top ratings from my model belong to:
- I Am Maximus
- Mr Incredible
- Kittys Light
- Glengouly
- Galia Des Liteaux
However, the last 3 may not make the cut and so I've made 3 more tactical (cash-outable) e/w bets on 3 from my model’s Next Best list (of 5 at OR147+) which are Chemical Energy, Limerick Lace and Adamantly Chosen.They should make the cut but the last 2 may be routed to Fairyhouse. Of course, if they are it helps the chances of some of the original 3 making it.
Either way, nearer to Confirmations on Monday 8 April, I'll be pruning the book to leave me with the 5 best-rated that appear very likely to run.
Mullins is relying on Nick Rockett to bring home the bacon at Fairyhouse and has taken out all of his also with Aintree GN entries, including Adamantly Chosen and Glengouly, who both also have entries for the Topham.
Limerick Lace and, as expected, Chemical Energy also scratched from Fairyhouse.
Indeed, only 2 horses entered for the Aintree GN with ORs 147+ (Farouk D’Alene and Favori De Champdou) remain in the Irish version.
The cut for the Aintree GN is looking more touch and go by the day for those below OR147.
They are the best-rated among 7 Topham entries for Mullins and 6 for Elliott. As they are the best-rated of those entries and there are 65 in total, if they are seeking to maximise prize money from the meeting, they may well run on the Friday.
I assume Mac Tottie intends to run in the GN unless the ground goes too testing (that looks unlikely) and let's assume that nether Irish GN runner of Elliotts show up for the Aintree version 12 days later, though that's perfectly possible.
I find it hard to believe that Bronn (Mullins) or Salvador Ziggy (Elliott) will run after their last runs which clearly evidenced a problem, but who knows? Same goes for Longhouse Poet but he may be Brassil's only possible runner.
Even if those 3 do come out and assuming that Hewick is indeed scratched, barring late niggles I make it at most 10 defections from the 42 currently above OR146.
That would give 2 of the 7 on OR146 a run, to be determined in the first instance by updated ORs.
Both Chambard and Kitty's Light have dropped 1lb since the weights were allotted while the Irish runners Glengouly, Eklat De Rire and Embittered all failed to varying degrees at the Festival.
The 2 that haven't run since the weights were allotted (Panda Boy and Galia Des Liteaux) will be unchanged of course on OR146, though Glengouly appears with them at the top of the updated card numbers, so his mark has presumably also remained on 146 (FWIW, Glengouly's Irish mark remained on 145, Eklat De Rire's dropped 4lbs to 142 and Embittered's 5lbs to 141).
If so, it would be from among those 3 that the last 2 make the cut, presumably by ballot.
And, of course, no Reserves any more for the GN.
Hard cheese to the x2 winner (and 1 near-misser) over 4m+ Kitty's Light and, if only 8 of those at 147+ are scratched, ditto Panda Boy.
The irony is that Kitty's was rated OR147 prior to his one and only chase this season prior to the weights, the Hennessy.
Williams no doubt thought 146 would be good enough (and perhaps it still will be) but why chance your GN-targeted steed with a high-ish 140s mark in a chase in future when it may cost them their tilt at the big one? Or indeed after the weights?
If the handicapper is incapable of distinguishing in his GNOR assessments appropriate marks at 24f from those at 29f+ to accommodate specialist top stayers, they need to introduce qualifying races (subject to a minimum mark) IMHO. Otherwise, the unique properties of the race really are pretty much emasculated and, of importance only to me, I may as well consign my model and method to the dustbin.
PS If these estimates prove correct, we're looking at at least 26 (more than 3/4) of the runners being Irish-trained. In 2015 it was 8/40 (20%).
1. Call me cynical but, given that it's seemingly turned into a naked prize-money grabbing exercise (not just winning but filling as many of the places as possible) and with so many of the entries spread down the weights, of course it's open to either Mullins or Elliott to keep a runner in simply to exclude the fancied Panda Boy.
Adamantly Chosen or The Goffer (who patently will not get the trip) running for you or permit a contender running for another? And, without reserves, all you have to do is declare them of course.
2. If my estimates prove correct, it will effectively mean #47 in the weights at the weights-unveiling is the last to make the cut. Only 13 (28%) will have defected from those top 47.
Of course we have 6 fewer runners but these are the last (by order at weights) to make the cut and the % defections from above since 2010:
It would indeed indicate that a greater proportion of the connections of higher-rated entries (regardless of the distance at which those ratings have been earned) have been incentivised, presumably by both prize money and now the cut in field size, to take their chance.
No doubt, the BHA and Aintree authorities will laud the accomplishment.
I (and I suspect most other GN fruitcakes) shall not.
As you suggest there could be a lot of manipulation by the big stables to maximise their earnings and we could even end up with less than 34 runners. It would be a real shame if horses that have a decent chance are balloted out due to tactics by the big battalions.
The mass withdrawal from Fairyhouse makes it plain that the Aintree GN is the honeypot.
Especially with 6 fewer runners now, they should be looking to do so again IMHO.
Having all the better quality horses running in the GN means that there is a minimal chance of the small owner/trainer, let alone one that is from this side of the water, having a runner in the GN let alone one that has a chance of winning. If 34 of the top 41 rated horses were to partake then a maximum of 6 would have been trained here - that's as many as Gigginstown alone own in that top 41. In the next 20 at the weights there are 11 British trained horses which serves to demonstrate how the Irish monopolise the very best animals and how those owners have become reliant on Irish withdrawals to get a run.
And the rest wouldn't have been history.
It's still a great spectacle but in every relevant way, from whatever angle one views it, the unique character of the race has gradually been emasculated, year by year, change by change, £100k by £100k of prize money, by the "upgrade in quality".
That guarantees Adamantly Chosen a run.
As it stands, I can't wait to see all the big stable runners left in to manipulate the situation pull up ahead of Becher's Brook on the 2nd circuit or whatever. A real shame.
If you back them NRNB (most bookies are NRNB now) you get your money back if they don’t run for whatever reason.
Both highly likely to be declared if they’re fit to run.
But all NRNB and probably all antepost punters will get their stakes back if so.
Cheers.
Even so if’s a surprise if the owner were keen on the GN and one of Nicholls’ own team reckons he’s a GN horse.
Just confirms the impression Nicholls, like Henderson, has never taken the race seriously.
It guarantees Chemical Energy a run.
1 more for Limerick Lace.
9 more will guarantee Panda Boy a run, though 7 might just do it.
12 more gives Kitty’s Light a tilt.
We’ll see how many from the Top 47 join Hewick and Threeunderthrufive as scratchings.
Glengouly seems to have been attracting some each way support, into 33s with several bookies.
Letsbeclearaboutit
Longhouse Poet
James Du Berlais
Monbeg Genius
Looks like 3underthru5 is still in but we (and bookies) assume won't run
A few more lower down
Will shortly do a tot up, also in light of Irish GN definites and Topham possibles of where that leaves the likely cut but initial reckoning makes 1 of The Goffer or Roi Mage (or Favori De Champdou, due to run at Fairyhouse) on OR147 as the new #34 and guaranteed a run.
The full list scratched in card order:
Hewick
Asterion Forlonge
Threeunderthrufive
Letsbeclearaboutit
James Du Berlais
Longhouse Poet
Monbeg Genius
Busselton
Diol Ker
Macs Charm
Dunboyne
Mister Coffey
Moroder
Gevrey
Fiddlerontheroof
Highland Hunter
Revels Hill.
Ash Tree Meadow and Salvador Ziggy are also out. They weren't in first list of 17 scratchings but appear to have been added and are now gone from card.
Reworking the numbers.
PS. Seems that Ash Tree Meadow hadn't qualified, not sure of official reason for Ziggy but has to be the right decision after he bled, definitely in penultimate and probably also last run.