Jumped well, raced a bit keen and over 20f on GS/Soft mix they just gobbled him up. Not discouraged for the GN if he's OK, though I suspect he’s more likely bound for Fairyhouse. Decent enough piece of work as a prep. Angels Dawn went well in the KM before tipping up to give a little credence to the Thyestes form, which has been a bit lacking.
Hewick being scratched from the GC on ground concerns presumably makes it very likely he'll be running in the GN, keeping the weights down.
To state the obvious, a truly impressive run by Corach Rambler in the GC and he's worthy GN fav. He's clearly going to be very well-in and, barring misadventure, under a very workable 11.02 he's bound to be there or thereabouts in 4 weeks time. But, as far as my model's concerned, at best it's a Hamlet this time, not the Montecristo.
2 races of possible GN-relevance this weekend, for which MR INCREDIBLE (GN 33/1 NRNB) is doubly-declared. Whether he runs in the 34f Midlands National at Uttoxeter tomorrow or Sunday's big 26f chase at Down Royal (in which last GN's creditable 7th Roi Mage runs for a 3rd time), it will be his first since last year's GN when, having handled the disrupted preliminaries, he jumped and travelled nicely in mid-div before a saddle slip caused him to part company with Brian Hayes between 24th and 25th fences.
He'll be attempting to repeat (hopefully a tad better) what Rathvinden did (also for Willie Mullins) when he had just 1 run prior to finishing 5L 3rd in the 2019 GN - in the latter's case, he'd won the Bobbyjo 42 days prior to Aintree (305 days since his last run).
Similarly, Alvarado and Shutthefrontdoor (respectively 4th and 5th 2015) both had only 1 prior run in the season, 52 and 152 days earlier (though 152 is a real outlier - since 2013, he's the only horse [from the 5% of total runners who were attempting likewise] to place 1~6 in a GN after 100+ day break).
In days of yore, Clan Royal and Lord Atterbury (just 16 days prior) also had just 1 run before their 2nd and 3rd in 2004, as did Philson Run 4th 2007, while triple-placer State Of Play had only 1 other race in total in between 4 appearances in GNs 2009~12, placing 3rd in 2010 after 1 run and 4th in 2011 after none.
And those of my vintage will also recall Mely Moss, having his first run for 345 days, finishing just 1.25L behind Papillon in the 2000 GN.
So, while not the typical template, a light (even late-starting) campaign is most certainly not a stopper if the horse is fit and well and has the right profile. Willie Mullins is positive about his GN chances and, based on his profile, so is my model.
As you may recall, he was 1 of its top 3 Winning Selections for last year and, while I Am Maximus will likely be the sole top selection this time, assuming he runs creditably and shows his wellbeing over the weekend, he'll definitely be on my slip each-way for 13 April.
A reminder as to his profile:
- Now an 8 yo and technically a 3rd season chaser but he's had only 8 chases and is no more exposed than he was when lining up last time (except we know he handled the occasion then and jumped nicely). He's 5lbs higher GNOR at 150 but that's guaranteed him a run and (if Hewick's declared) he'll carry just 10.07.
- Aside from 2 tantrums in his final runs for Henry de Bromhead 2 years ago, 1 BD and the GN saddle slip, he’s never finished out of the frame in his 7 other runs (PtP, hurdles and chases - he has an extraordinarily low mileage), ranging from 19~29f, winning twice and typically finishing like a train. There’s rarely a dull moment with this fella but he’s certainly got both stamina and gears and, while he’s been a “project” for Mullins and team, they seem to have found the key to keeping him sweet.
- Chase RPR high [150] set over the furthest trip he's attempted, when a staying-on 3L 2nd under 11.05 in the 29f Warwick National on Heavy but last April showed he's versatile as to ground.
- Pedigree-wise:
Sire and Damsire both G1 winners on the
flat (at 20f and 12f respectively) – 41 GN runners since 2013 (10.4% of fields) had G1 winners at 8f+ as Sire and DS but they contributed 6 (60%) of GN winners and 15 (30%) of 1st~5th.
Distantly related to Bonanza Boy (x2 Welsh GNs, one with
11.11, and GN5th with 11.07), his pedigree is similar to Gilgamboa’s (4th GN
2016). Both sired by Westerner (also sired 34f Midlands Nat winner Truckers
Lodge) and Be My Native (Damsire of Gilgamboa and GN2nd Black Apalachi) is Mr
Incredible’s 2nd Damsire (like Any Second Now). His 3rd Damsire, Boreen, was DS of many stout stayers, including 3 winners/near-missers of 4m+ chases,
most notably Royal Emperor (close 3rd in Scot Nat with 11.04).
Though Wild Risk is absent from Mr Incredible's damside, it's present via sire Westerner's damside, specifically his 2nd Damsire Bon Mot, grandson and a particularly powerful expression of the synergistic potential of Wild Risk in a pedigree - contributing to Westerner's versatility and success over a trip (winning 11 times from 8~20f, including 3 G1s at 20f) and that of his progeny.
Not modelled as yet but something I've been researching - he's meaningfully inbred to 2 top racehorses of yesteryear that were endowed with (and potential genetic conveyors of, via their female offspring; i.e. the X-chromosome) super-large hearts, enabling above average stamina at speed. In Mr Incredible's case, they are Princequillo and Mahmoud but War Admiral, Blue Larkspur, Man o' War and Secretariat are other known possessors of Big Hearts and potential conveyors of the X Factor Gene. I haven't yet analysed the representation of this trait among all 395 GN runners but 14 of the 18 [78%] GN winners and near-missers (<5L) since 2013 had a meaningful presence in their pedigree of at least 1 of these 6 Big Heart Gene conveyors. With 53% of the others that placed up to 5th having the same, the indication is that this X Factor may well be positively correlated with success (as one might expect). I'll complete the research after this year's race.
Meanwhile, whether he lines up or not, enjoy what should be a terrific renewal of the only steeplechase in the calendar that matches the GN trip. Always a belter.
RPR rates Corach Rambler's 3rd yesterday at RPR169, a new PB by 9lb on his GN win. And who could argue with that? It turns out the handicapper had it at least closer to the mark after his first Ultima win, when he put him up to OR159. It was a 15L defeat to Royal Pagaille in his only run between Ultima wins that dropped him back to 146 off which the GN was, in hindsight, a cake walk. We'll see on Tuesday what he makes of the GC run but it will surely be a career-high mark and officially put him nicely well-in. The more I look at his pedigree the more I kick myself for not fully twigging his GN credentials before his win last year. I knew he was from Any Second Now and Gilgamboa's family but the prominent presence of Arazi (linebred 23% to Wild Risk) in his sire Jeremy, should have registered as a bigger plus in my model. At least the tweaked, current version has caught up with that. At the end of the day, every horse is unique and there's a particularly small sample of returning champions, so no model can ever rule out a back to back win even with a 13lb hike in GNOR. And, of course, the race itself is a minefield of misadventure that may waylay others, if not him. His win last time was certainly the more comfortable (IMHO) for that. He could well win it again in 4 weeks and even go on to become the next Red Rum. But, as my model is currently formulated, even allowing for being 7~10lbs well-in (obviously a big plus for a returning winner), in the context of the unique 34f handicap that is the GN, there are better weighted rivals in its "opinion". And, the fact is, as well we know, only 1 returning champion has lifted the prize again since Rummy, though several have gone close. I'll be posting my model's final ratings after the next Forfeit Stage (I'm assuming that's the Tuesday after Cheltenham, as usual) but let's hope the smaller field does deliver a less chaotic race and that all runners get the chance to run their true race. If so, it will be a real humdinger.
Apologies Peanuts if I have missed it, but have you tipped the Midlands GN? In Peanuts we trust.
Really appreciate the vote of confidence, especially after a truly dismal week. The only geezer to have had a worse Festival than Henderson. Tbh I've been tied up on the GN ratings (updating and looking at new angles) so not had the time. Taking Mrs Molloy out today (bad organisation!) so no time this morning either. Many apologies. Got any fancies for the Midlands Nat yourself?
No worries Penauts, have a lovely day out, enjoy the sun. 2pts has put a good case forward for Mr Silver Lining
Cheers @CHG I'd concur about My Silver Lining. Looks like the further she goes the better she is and an interesting pedigree. You don’t often see Cantab as prominent as 3rd Damsire these days. He sired top chasers The Thinker and Little Owl and GN winner Little Polveir. All the best.
Beauport wins. Mr Incredible 2nd and My Silver Lining 3rd but only 2L between them. Very nice run by Mr Incredible. No signs of his occasional tantrums. Travelled and jumped beautifully under 12.00 on testing ground. Glad I took the 33s NRNB yesterday cos that was a very nice prep. He was 40s antepost with Bob but I'd guess he'll be no more than half that now. Roll on Aintree.
Beauport wins. Mr Incredible 2nd and My Silver Lining 3rd but only 3-4L between them. Very nice run by Mr Incredible. No signs of his occasional tantrums. Travelled and jumped beautifully under 12.00 on testing ground. Glad I took the 33s NRNB yesterday cos that was a very nice prep. He was 40s antepost with Bob but I'd guess he'll be no more than half that now. Roll on Aintree.
Surprised to see Bet365 only shaved him to 33s (antepost 5 places). PP make him 16s, others ranging between. Still only WH are NRNB. They're at 20s. He is guaranteed to make the cut and the GN is the target so only injury would stop him lining up.
Beauport wins. Mr Incredible 2nd and My Silver Lining 3rd but only 3-4L between them. Very nice run by Mr Incredible. No signs of his occasional tantrums. Travelled and jumped beautifully under 12.00 on testing ground. Glad I took the 33s NRNB yesterday cos that was a very nice prep. He was 40s antepost with Bob but I'd guess he'll be no more than half that now. Roll on Aintree.
Surprised to see Bet365 only shaved him to 33s (antepost 5 places). PP make him 16s, others ranging between. Still only WH are NRNB. They're at 20s. He is guaranteed to make the cut and the GN is the target so only injury would stop him lining up.
Peanuts - it looks like Bet365 are now NRNB and Mr Incredible is still available @ 33/1 (5 places)
The Midlands National isn't a typical GN prep these days (it's going to get even less so with 6 fewer runners at Aintree) and I was surprised Mullins chose it for Mr Incredible. With a 4 week gap, presumably he felt he needed and could take a serious piece of work as his seasonal pipe opener.
It used to be much more common to run in both (even with the more customary 3 week gap) and Uttoxeter form was typically a good pointer for Aintree, especially in the 1990s, when most notably Lord Gyllene was 2nd in the Midlands National before winning the real thing in 1997. In the same decade, Laura's Beau, Just So (twice) and Call It A Day all ran at Uttoxeter before placing at Aintree and, by strange coincidence, so did Mr Incredible's relative of yesteryear, Bonanza Boy (won at Uttoxeter and 5th under 11.07 at Aintree).
But only 2 since then have preceded GN success with a spin in the Midlands version. The most recent was Milansbar, runner up at Uttoxeter and 5th in the 2018 GN 28 days later and, prior to him, dear old Mon Mome, who'd bombed at Uttoxeter before romping home at 100/1 at Aintree in 2009. Happy days!!
Beauport wins. Mr Incredible 2nd and My Silver Lining 3rd but only 3-4L between them. Very nice run by Mr Incredible. No signs of his occasional tantrums. Travelled and jumped beautifully under 12.00 on testing ground. Glad I took the 33s NRNB yesterday cos that was a very nice prep. He was 40s antepost with Bob but I'd guess he'll be no more than half that now. Roll on Aintree.
Surprised to see Bet365 only shaved him to 33s (antepost 5 places). PP make him 16s, others ranging between. Still only WH are NRNB. They're at 20s. He is guaranteed to make the cut and the GN is the target so only injury would stop him lining up.
Peanuts - it looks like Bet365 are now NRNB and Mr Incredible is still available @ 33/1 (5 places)
Cheers @Addick Addict Oddschecker hasn't updated yet. A top up may be called for!
Mr Incredible's not my model's #1 selection (likely #2) but, given he's handled the fences and Aintree's "Good-to-Soft", has shed loads of stamina and showed his wellbeing today, 33/1 after that run is mispriced IMHO and makes him the pick of e/w value, at least among my team and I'd suggest maybe the whole market. I'm happy to go in with a lop-sided book and have topped up on him.
The Midlands National isn't a typical GN prep these days (it's going to get even less so with 6 fewer runners at Aintree) and I was surprised Mullins chose it for Mr Incredible. With a 4 week gap, presumably he felt he needed and could take a serious piece of work as his seasonal pipe opener.
It used to be much more common to run in both (even with the more customary 3 week gap) and Uttoxeter form was typically a good pointer for Aintree, especially in the 1990s, when most notably Lord Gyllene was 2nd in the Midlands National before winning the real thing in 1997. In the same decade, Laura's Beau, Just So (twice) and Call It A Day all ran at Uttoxeter before placing at Aintree and, by strange coincidence, so did Mr Incredible's relative of yesteryear, Bonanza Boy (won at Uttoxeter and 5th under 11.07 at Aintree).
But only 2 since then have preceded GN success with a spin in the Midlands version. The most recent was Milansbar, runner up at Uttoxeter and 5th in the 2018 GN 28 days later and, prior to him, dear old Mon Mome, who'd bombed at Uttoxeter before romping home at 100/1 at Aintree in 2009. Happy days!!
Fingers crossed.
As you indicated above, Mr Incredible was also deliberately entered up at Down Royal tomorrow (still in there but will obviously be pulled out) so that does indicate that Mullins wanted to give it a run out specifically with this period of time before the big race and that is a comparable gap to that last year between the Kim Muir and the GN (albeit that the horse had already had a couple of outings prior to Cheltenham).
The price (33/1 NRNB) is more than fair and I've gone in again too especially as the horse's record in fields of 12 or more is exceptional with excuses for the couple of times he didn't finish in the top three:
The Midlands National isn't a typical GN prep these days (it's going to get even less so with 6 fewer runners at Aintree) and I was surprised Mullins chose it for Mr Incredible. With a 4 week gap, presumably he felt he needed and could take a serious piece of work as his seasonal pipe opener.
It used to be much more common to run in both (even with the more customary 3 week gap) and Uttoxeter form was typically a good pointer for Aintree, especially in the 1990s, when most notably Lord Gyllene was 2nd in the Midlands National before winning the real thing in 1997. In the same decade, Laura's Beau, Just So (twice) and Call It A Day all ran at Uttoxeter before placing at Aintree and, by strange coincidence, so did Mr Incredible's relative of yesteryear, Bonanza Boy (won at Uttoxeter and 5th under 11.07 at Aintree).
But only 2 since then have preceded GN success with a spin in the Midlands version. The most recent was Milansbar, runner up at Uttoxeter and 5th in the 2018 GN 28 days later and, prior to him, dear old Mon Mome, who'd bombed at Uttoxeter before romping home at 100/1 at Aintree in 2009. Happy days!!
Fingers crossed.
As you indicated above, Mr Incredible was also deliberately entered up at Down Royal tomorrow (still in there but will obviously be pulled out) so that does indicate that Mullins wanted to give it a run out specifically with this period of time before the big race and that is a comparable gap to that last year between the Kim Muir and the GN (albeit that the horse had already had a couple of outings prior to Cheltenham).
The price (33/1 NRNB) is more than fair and I've gone in again too especially as the horse's record in fields of 12 or more is exceptional with excuses for the couple of times :
Good point about the big fields and both times he dropped anchor they were 6 and 8 runner races. Could be they reckon he’s less likely to do so in the herd. May also explain why he’s always produced late. He may need company. When he wandered up the Hill in the KM I seem to recall he was a little detached from the front 2. And his record does raise the possibility of a tendency to seconditis. No worries about stiff competition at the business end of this GN methinks but one does have the nasty feeling he’s exactly the sort to join the list of those who’ve snatched defeat from the jaws of GN victory between the last and the line.
So Shark Hanlon's said Hewick is more likely to run in the Betway Bowl at Aintree than the GN.
That means the weights will rise at least 3lbs - 4lbs if Conflated is scratched. I think we can presume Noble Yeats will run regardless so 4lbs is likely the maximum rise but now he'll carry either 11.11 or 11.12.
It's a fallacy to think weights rising affects all runners pretty much the same. Generally speaking, in a GN every extra lb above 11.00 is a lot harder to carry than below, but it's all about relatives (and not the irritating 2-legged variety) and, at least so far as my model is concerned, there are some that can carry big weights in this race and some that can't.
Particularly hurt are its stat-ratings of Nassalam, for whom a GNOR of 161 is looking a stretch anyway with the form of his WGN cake walk, off 16lbs lower, now standing at 0 wins from 27 subsequent runs, including his own PU in the GC (there have been a couple of placings but a lot of PUs & distances) and now will carry at least 11.07; Mahler Mission now with at least 11.04 and (despite a friendly GNOR) Galvin with at least 11.01, particularly in light of (respectively) no run since the Hennessy and an abandoned prep.
In contrast, while of course a lesser weight is always better, my model still rates both Noble Yeats, who carried 11.11 last year when 4th, and Corach Rambler (now at least 11.05) as highly likely still to be in the mix despite the bigger burden (quel surprise), though others are preferred.
They’re still headed by I Am Maximus, whose GN stat-profile is strong enough to withstand carrying 11.05 (or 11.06) while other top fancies of my model remain below 11.00 and should be relatively advantaged.
Hmm, the ways of the handicapper are certainly mysterious. Corach Rambler's staying on 3rd in the GC, 13L behind x2 GC winner (OR179) and without much doubt the best in recent times, has elicited a "shrug-of-the-shoulders" 3lbs rise in OR to 162. As Gary Moore notes, his steed Nassalam, who "was flat out all the way round. He’s not a Gold Cup horse, is he? .... not a 160s horse" is unchanged on his mark of 161 (despite the patently poor quality of the Welsh GN) and just 1lb behind the Rambler. I'm buggered if I can explain it. To me, all things considered, Nassalam should be 155 tops and the Rambler 165 minimum (if that wasn't at least a 6lb improvement on his previous PB I don't know what we were all watching) but hey ho.
Meanwhile, winner of Saturday's Mid Nat Beauport has been put up 5lbs to 145, which implies a 3lb rise in British mark of Mr Incredible to 153 (the Irish handicapper has raised him 4 to 151, which also squares). He runs off GNOR 150 at Aintree. It makes no difference to his stat-rating, nor does the prospect of carrying 10.10 or 10.11, which remains #2 in the prospective field.
Taken the decision to cash out on Panda Boy this morning.
Not a easy one because he has the pedigree for a GN and his season's form has been decent (notably another near-miss in the PP Hdcp and a close 2nd in a listed hurdle last time). But that makes his last run 70 days prior to the GN and his qualifying stat-rating was contingent on a final post-weights prep which, for whatever reason, hasn't happened. Possibly it's because Martin Brassil's yard is in truly rank form at the moment, which is hardly encouraging in itself.
So what's the big deal about a post-weights run? One For Arthur and Minella Times both won without one (last runs being 84 and 62 days prior to their respective GN wins).
The fact is some horses run well after a 50d+ break, some don't. Arthur's and Minella's records after such a break were excellent (both 70%+ frame-making), Panda Boy's is not (1 from 6).
Stat-ratings are inevitably based on fine-margins and the lack of a run tips his to minor place potential, which he could still fulfil but, at 16/1, is lousy value IMHO. I prefer to recoup the powder dry for a dabble on one of the other similarly-rated candidates offered at more appealing prices, of which there are a couple of interesting though ground-dependent candidates.
I don't take much notice of weight. The idea of a handicap is to give every horse an equal chance. So if a horse has a big weight it is because he is that much better, unless the handicapper has got it wrong. People say the top weight rarely wins a National, but neither does a bottom weight. I concentrate on stamina and jumping ability.
Taken the decision to cash out on Panda Boy this morning.
12 hours after I made the decision to follow your backing of Panda Boy 🤣
You may have well the last laugh @AFKABartram . Just seen his trainer had a winner yesterday Mind you he was favourite and it was 6f on the flat. Panda Boy's still the got the stat-profile to make the frame (and on paper a nice pull on market fancy Meetingofthewaters), it's just a value call for me. Anyway, my model may be bollocks. Good luck.
I understand that they want to reduce the number of fatalities in the race and cutting the maximum field from 40 to 34 and shortening the distance to the first fence will hopefully reduce the number of fallers. However with all these changes and the raising of the minimum rating to 145, trainers are being encouraged to run their better animals and this is creating an imbalance between the qualified horses of GB and Irish trainers. I can see a time when it will become just another valuable handicap
I understand that they want to reduce the number of fatalities in the race and cutting the maximum field from 40 to 34 and shortening the distance to the first fence will hopefully reduce the number of fallers. However with all these changes and the raising of the minimum rating to 145, trainers are being encouraged to run their better animals and this is creating an imbalance between the qualified horses of GB and Irish trainers. I can see a time when it will become just another valuable handicap
Can't disagree. No one likes fatalities but if they emasculate the race entirely of its thrills-and-spills character and the potential for delivering the occasional shock winner, it will have peaked in popularity. That said, I doubt that cutting the field to 34 will be enough to eliminate the chaos but, as you say it will likely attract still more higher-rated runners and by force of numbers, reduce the chances of a shock winner.
I understand that they want to reduce the number of fatalities in the race and cutting the maximum field from 40 to 34 and shortening the distance to the first fence will hopefully reduce the number of fallers. However with all these changes and the raising of the minimum rating to 145, trainers are being encouraged to run their better animals and this is creating an imbalance between the qualified horses of GB and Irish trainers. I can see a time when it will become just another valuable handicap
Hewick remains in but, of course, we know he's probably to run in the Bowl.
The cut could come higher than anticipated.
Kitty's Light and Glengouly (and indeed Panda Boy) are all GNOR146 and need at least 9 (and Kitty's perhaps up to 14) above them to be scratched to get a run.
Hmm. If we're regularly only going to have 2 runners making the cut with Winning Calibre ratings, allowing for the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, the cut in field size is going to start screwing with the trends.
Comments
Decent enough piece of work as a prep.
Angels Dawn went well in the KM before tipping up to give a little credence to the Thyestes form, which has been a bit lacking.
Hewick being scratched from the GC on ground concerns presumably makes it very likely he'll be running in the GN, keeping the weights down.
To state the obvious, a truly impressive run by Corach Rambler in the GC and he's worthy GN fav. He's clearly going to be very well-in and, barring misadventure, under a very workable 11.02 he's bound to be there or thereabouts in 4 weeks time. But, as far as my model's concerned, at best it's a Hamlet this time, not the Montecristo.
2 races of possible GN-relevance this weekend, for which MR INCREDIBLE (GN 33/1 NRNB) is doubly-declared. Whether he runs in the 34f Midlands National at Uttoxeter tomorrow or Sunday's big 26f chase at Down Royal (in which last GN's creditable 7th Roi Mage runs for a 3rd time), it will be his first since last year's GN when, having handled the disrupted preliminaries, he jumped and travelled nicely in mid-div before a saddle slip caused him to part company with Brian Hayes between 24th and 25th fences.
He'll be attempting to repeat (hopefully a tad better) what Rathvinden did (also for Willie Mullins) when he had just 1 run prior to finishing 5L 3rd in the 2019 GN - in the latter's case, he'd won the Bobbyjo 42 days prior to Aintree (305 days since his last run).
Similarly, Alvarado and Shutthefrontdoor (respectively 4th and 5th 2015) both had only 1 prior run in the season, 52 and 152 days earlier (though 152 is a real outlier - since 2013, he's the only horse [from the 5% of total runners who were attempting likewise] to place 1~6 in a GN after 100+ day break).
In days of yore, Clan Royal and Lord Atterbury (just 16 days prior) also had just 1 run before their 2nd and 3rd in 2004, as did Philson Run 4th 2007, while triple-placer State Of Play had only 1 other race in total in between 4 appearances in GNs 2009~12, placing 3rd in 2010 after 1 run and 4th in 2011 after none.
And those of my vintage will also recall Mely Moss, having his first run for 345 days, finishing just 1.25L behind Papillon in the 2000 GN.
So, while not the typical template, a light (even late-starting) campaign is most certainly not a stopper if the horse is fit and well and has the right profile. Willie Mullins is positive about his GN chances and, based on his profile, so is my model.
As you may recall, he was 1 of its top 3 Winning Selections for last year and, while I Am Maximus will likely be the sole top selection this time, assuming he runs creditably and shows his wellbeing over the weekend, he'll definitely be on my slip each-way for 13 April.
A reminder as to his profile:- Now an 8 yo and technically a 3rd season chaser but he's had only 8 chases and is no more exposed than he was when lining up last time (except we know he handled the occasion then and jumped nicely). He's 5lbs higher GNOR at 150 but that's guaranteed him a run and (if Hewick's declared) he'll carry just 10.07.
- Aside from 2 tantrums in his final runs for Henry de Bromhead 2 years ago, 1 BD and the GN saddle slip, he’s never finished out of the frame in his 7 other runs (PtP, hurdles and chases - he has an extraordinarily low mileage), ranging from 19~29f, winning twice and typically finishing like a train. There’s rarely a dull moment with this fella but he’s certainly got both stamina and gears and, while he’s been a “project” for Mullins and team, they seem to have found the key to keeping him sweet.
- Chase RPR high [150] set over the furthest trip he's attempted, when a staying-on 3L 2nd under 11.05 in the 29f Warwick National on Heavy but last April showed he's versatile as to ground.
- Pedigree-wise:
- Sire and Damsire both G1 winners on the
flat (at 20f and 12f respectively) – 41 GN runners since 2013 (10.4% of fields) had G1 winners at 8f+ as Sire and DS but they contributed 6 (60%) of GN winners and 15 (30%) of 1st~5th.
- Distantly related to Bonanza Boy (x2 Welsh GNs, one with
11.11, and GN5th with 11.07), his pedigree is similar to Gilgamboa’s (4th GN
2016). Both sired by Westerner (also sired 34f Midlands Nat winner Truckers
Lodge) and Be My Native (Damsire of Gilgamboa and GN2nd Black Apalachi) is Mr
Incredible’s 2nd Damsire (like Any Second Now). His 3rd Damsire, Boreen, was DS of many stout stayers, including 3 winners/near-missers of 4m+ chases,
most notably Royal Emperor (close 3rd in Scot Nat with 11.04).
- Though Wild Risk is absent from Mr Incredible's damside, it's present via sire Westerner's damside, specifically his 2nd Damsire Bon Mot, grandson and a particularly powerful expression of the synergistic potential of Wild Risk in a pedigree - contributing to Westerner's versatility and success over a trip (winning 11 times from 8~20f, including 3 G1s at 20f) and that of his progeny.
- Not modelled as yet but something I've been researching - he's meaningfully inbred to 2 top racehorses of yesteryear that were endowed with (and potential genetic conveyors of, via their female offspring; i.e. the X-chromosome) super-large hearts, enabling above average stamina at speed. In Mr Incredible's case, they are Princequillo and Mahmoud but War Admiral, Blue Larkspur, Man o' War and Secretariat are other known possessors of Big Hearts and potential conveyors of the X Factor Gene. I haven't yet analysed the representation of this trait among all 395 GN runners but 14 of the 18 [78%] GN winners and near-missers (<5L) since 2013 had a meaningful presence in their pedigree of at least 1 of these 6 Big Heart Gene conveyors. With 53% of the others that placed up to 5th having the same, the indication is that this X Factor may well be positively correlated with success (as one might expect). I'll complete the research after this year's race.
Meanwhile, whether he lines up or not, enjoy what should be a terrific renewal of the only steeplechase in the calendar that matches the GN trip. Always a belter.It turns out the handicapper had it at least closer to the mark after his first Ultima win, when he put him up to OR159. It was a 15L defeat to Royal Pagaille in his only run between Ultima wins that dropped him back to 146 off which the GN was, in hindsight, a cake walk. We'll see on Tuesday what he makes of the GC run but it will surely be a career-high mark and officially put him nicely well-in.
The more I look at his pedigree the more I kick myself for not fully twigging his GN credentials before his win last year.
I knew he was from Any Second Now and Gilgamboa's family but the prominent presence of Arazi (linebred 23% to Wild Risk) in his sire Jeremy, should have registered as a bigger plus in my model. At least the tweaked, current version has caught up with that.
At the end of the day, every horse is unique and there's a particularly small sample of returning champions, so no model can ever rule out a back to back win even with a 13lb hike in GNOR. And, of course, the race itself is a minefield of misadventure that may waylay others, if not him. His win last time was certainly the more comfortable (IMHO) for that.
He could well win it again in 4 weeks and even go on to become the next Red Rum. But, as my model is currently formulated, even allowing for being 7~10lbs well-in (obviously a big plus for a returning winner), in the context of the unique 34f handicap that is the GN, there are better weighted rivals in its "opinion". And, the fact is, as well we know, only 1 returning champion has lifted the prize again since Rummy, though several have gone close.
I'll be posting my model's final ratings after the next Forfeit Stage (I'm assuming that's the Tuesday after Cheltenham, as usual) but let's hope the smaller field does deliver a less chaotic race and that all runners get the chance to run their true race.
If so, it will be a real humdinger.
Tbh I've been tied up on the GN ratings (updating and looking at new angles) so not had the time. Taking Mrs Molloy out today (bad organisation!) so no time this morning either. Many apologies.
Got any fancies for the Midlands Nat yourself?
I'd concur about My Silver Lining. Looks like the further she goes the better she is and an interesting pedigree.
You don’t often see Cantab as prominent as 3rd Damsire these days. He sired top chasers The Thinker and Little Owl and GN winner Little Polveir.
All the best.
Mr Incredible 2nd and My Silver Lining 3rd but only 2L between them.
Very nice run by Mr Incredible. No signs of his occasional tantrums. Travelled and jumped beautifully under 12.00 on testing ground.
Glad I took the 33s NRNB yesterday cos that was a very nice prep. He was 40s antepost with Bob but I'd guess he'll be no more than half that now.
Roll on Aintree.
Still only WH are NRNB. They're at 20s.
He is guaranteed to make the cut and the GN is the target so only injury would stop him lining up.
It used to be much more common to run in both (even with the more customary 3 week gap) and Uttoxeter form was typically a good pointer for Aintree, especially in the 1990s, when most notably Lord Gyllene was 2nd in the Midlands National before winning the real thing in 1997.
In the same decade, Laura's Beau, Just So (twice) and Call It A Day all ran at Uttoxeter before placing at Aintree and, by strange coincidence, so did Mr Incredible's relative of yesteryear, Bonanza Boy (won at Uttoxeter and 5th under 11.07 at Aintree).
But only 2 since then have preceded GN success with a spin in the Midlands version.
The most recent was Milansbar, runner up at Uttoxeter and 5th in the 2018 GN 28 days later and, prior to him, dear old Mon Mome, who'd bombed at Uttoxeter before romping home at 100/1 at Aintree in 2009. Happy days!!
Fingers crossed.
Oddschecker hasn't updated yet.
A top up may be called for!
I'm happy to go in with a lop-sided book and have topped up on him.
The price (33/1 NRNB) is more than fair and I've gone in again too especially as the horse's record in fields of 12 or more is exceptional with excuses for the couple of times he didn't finish in the top three:
2nd (12)
Saddle slipped & unseated rider (39)
3rd (23)
2nd (13)
Brought down (28)
1st (18)
1st (17)
2nd (20)
Could be they reckon he’s less likely to do so in the herd.
May also explain why he’s always produced late. He may need company. When he wandered up the Hill in the KM I seem to recall he was a little detached from the front 2.
And his record does raise the possibility of a tendency to seconditis.
No worries about stiff competition at the business end of this GN methinks but one does have the nasty feeling he’s exactly the sort to join the list of those who’ve snatched defeat from the jaws of GN victory between the last and the line.
Bob's run for cover
That means the weights will rise at least 3lbs - 4lbs if Conflated is scratched. I think we can presume Noble Yeats will run regardless so 4lbs is likely the maximum rise but now he'll carry either 11.11 or 11.12.
It's a fallacy to think weights rising affects all runners pretty much the same. Generally speaking, in a GN every extra lb above 11.00 is a lot harder to carry than below, but it's all about relatives (and not the irritating 2-legged variety) and, at least so far as my model is concerned, there are some that can carry big weights in this race and some that can't.
Particularly hurt are its stat-ratings of Nassalam, for whom a GNOR of 161 is looking a stretch anyway with the form of his WGN cake walk, off 16lbs lower, now standing at 0 wins from 27 subsequent runs, including his own PU in the GC (there have been a couple of placings but a lot of PUs & distances) and now will carry at least 11.07; Mahler Mission now with at least 11.04 and (despite a friendly GNOR) Galvin with at least 11.01, particularly in light of (respectively) no run since the Hennessy and an abandoned prep.
In contrast, while of course a lesser weight is always better, my model still rates both Noble Yeats, who carried 11.11 last year when 4th, and Corach Rambler (now at least 11.05) as highly likely still to be in the mix despite the bigger burden (quel surprise), though others are preferred.
More anon.
Corach Rambler's staying on 3rd in the GC, 13L behind x2 GC winner (OR179) and without much doubt the best in recent times, has elicited a "shrug-of-the-shoulders" 3lbs rise in OR to 162.
As Gary Moore notes, his steed Nassalam, who "was flat out all the way round. He’s not a Gold Cup horse, is he? .... not a 160s horse" is unchanged on his mark of 161 (despite the patently poor quality of the Welsh GN) and just 1lb behind the Rambler.
I'm buggered if I can explain it.
To me, all things considered, Nassalam should be 155 tops and the Rambler 165 minimum (if that wasn't at least a 6lb improvement on his previous PB I don't know what we were all watching) but hey ho.
Meanwhile, winner of Saturday's Mid Nat Beauport has been put up 5lbs to 145, which implies a 3lb rise in British mark of Mr Incredible to 153 (the Irish handicapper has raised him 4 to 151, which also squares). He runs off GNOR 150 at Aintree.
It makes no difference to his stat-rating, nor does the prospect of carrying 10.10 or 10.11, which remains #2 in the prospective field.
Taken the decision to cash out on Panda Boy this morning.
Not a easy one because he has the pedigree for a GN and his season's form has been decent (notably another near-miss in the PP Hdcp and a close 2nd in a listed hurdle last time).
But that makes his last run 70 days prior to the GN and his qualifying stat-rating was contingent on a final post-weights prep which, for whatever reason, hasn't happened.
Possibly it's because Martin Brassil's yard is in truly rank form at the moment, which is hardly encouraging in itself.
So what's the big deal about a post-weights run? One For Arthur and Minella Times both won without one (last runs being 84 and 62 days prior to their respective GN wins).
The fact is some horses run well after a 50d+ break, some don't. Arthur's and Minella's records after such a break were excellent (both 70%+ frame-making), Panda Boy's is not (1 from 6).
Stat-ratings are inevitably based on fine-margins and the lack of a run tips his to minor place potential, which he could still fulfil but, at 16/1, is lousy value IMHO. I prefer to recoup the powder dry for a dabble on one of the other similarly-rated candidates offered at more appealing prices, of which there are a couple of interesting though ground-dependent candidates.
More anon.
Mind you he was favourite and it was 6f on the flat.
Panda Boy's still the got the stat-profile to make the frame (and on paper a nice pull on market fancy Meetingofthewaters), it's just a value call for me.
Anyway, my model may be bollocks.
Good luck.
No one likes fatalities but if they emasculate the race entirely of its thrills-and-spills character and the potential for delivering the occasional shock winner, it will have peaked in popularity.
That said, I doubt that cutting the field to 34 will be enough to eliminate the chaos but, as you say it will likely attract still more higher-rated runners and by force of numbers, reduce the chances of a shock winner.
Only 4 defections at yesterday's Forfeit Stage:
Gevrey
Fiddlerontheroof
Highland Hunter RIP
Samcro
Hewick remains in but, of course, we know he's probably to run in the Bowl.
The cut could come higher than anticipated.
Kitty's Light and Glengouly (and indeed Panda Boy) are all GNOR146 and need at least 9 (and Kitty's perhaps up to 14) above them to be scratched to get a run.
Hmm. If we're regularly only going to have 2 runners making the cut with Winning Calibre ratings, allowing for the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, the cut in field size is going to start screwing with the trends.