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General Election 2015 official thread

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Comments

  • ValleyGary
    ValleyGary Posts: 37,985
    Isn't 'Exit Poll' a Ukip policy?

    #PoliticalBants
  • Southendaddick
    Southendaddick Posts: 5,314
    My missus is currently looking after ballot boxes and counting votes

    She should be home by 5am, think I'll be doing the school run
  • Red_in_SE8
    Red_in_SE8 Posts: 5,961
    AFKABartram said:

    Red_in_SE8 said:

    Fiiish said:

    Incredible exit polls if they're remotely accurate. Tories gain seats and Labour loses them, ringing endorsement for Cameron over Miliband.

    'Ringing Endorsement'!

    At some stage you have to take off your blue tinted goggles surely?
    I don't go into the sniping stuff, but if the ruling party increases it's vote for a second term, then I really can't see how you can say it is anything but.
    In my world a 'ringing endorsement' requires a majority at the minimum.
  • Fiiish
    Fiiish Posts: 7,998
    Red_in_SE8 said:

    Fiiish said:

    Incredible exit polls if they're remotely accurate. Tories gain seats and Labour loses them, ringing endorsement for Cameron over Miliband.

    'Ringing Endorsement'!

    At some stage you have to take off your blue tinted goggles surely?
    First leader since 1983 to increase their party's allocation of seats (according to the Exit Polls), which is usually seen to be an endorsement by people who have the most basic grasp of politics.
  • Chizz
    Chizz Posts: 28,341
    AFKABartram said:

    Red_in_SE8 said:

    Fiiish said:

    Incredible exit polls if they're remotely accurate. Tories gain seats and Labour loses them, ringing endorsement for Cameron over Miliband.

    'Ringing Endorsement'!

    At some stage you have to take off your blue tinted goggles surely?
    I don't go into the sniping stuff, but if the ruling party increases it's vote for a second term, then I really can't see how you can say it is anything but.
    But surely "ringing endorsement" should be reserved for a party winning a majority. If the numbers are in line with the exit poll, how could anyone describe the Tories' failure to win a majority as a "ringing endorsement"?
  • foxjam
    foxjam Posts: 208
    PL54 said:

    Is it 326 for a majority ?

    Yes. However, given that Sinn Fein don't take their seats, it may be possible that a government could be formed with 323 seats.
  • EastTerrace
    EastTerrace Posts: 3,961
    Chizz said:

    The YouGov exit poll looks very different:

    YouGov exit poll - CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1

    What TV network are mentioning this?
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,625
    Fiiish said:

    Red_in_SE8 said:

    Fiiish said:

    Incredible exit polls if they're remotely accurate. Tories gain seats and Labour loses them, ringing endorsement for Cameron over Miliband.

    'Ringing Endorsement'!

    At some stage you have to take off your blue tinted goggles surely?
    First leader since 1983 to increase their party's allocation of seats (according to the Exit Polls), which is usually seen to be an endorsement by people who have the most basic grasp of politics.
    Does that rule you out ? ;0)

  • PL54
    PL54 Posts: 10,757
    20000 as a poll isn't big in light of the size of vote
  • DamoNorthStand
    DamoNorthStand Posts: 10,938
    At most you could expect maybe 10 seats either way. There is no way in a million years Labour will get the most seats (or anywhere near). There is also no way they will get a majority coalition with the SNP.

    It has clearly been a puddle of piss of a night for Ed.

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  • brogib
    brogib Posts: 2,128
    EastTerrace said:

    Chizz said:

    The YouGov exit poll looks very different:

    YouGov exit poll - CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1

    What TV network are mentioning this?
    ChizzTV
  • Davo55
    Davo55 Posts: 7,836
    Chizz said:

    AFKABartram said:

    Red_in_SE8 said:

    Fiiish said:

    Incredible exit polls if they're remotely accurate. Tories gain seats and Labour loses them, ringing endorsement for Cameron over Miliband.

    'Ringing Endorsement'!

    At some stage you have to take off your blue tinted goggles surely?
    I don't go into the sniping stuff, but if the ruling party increases it's vote for a second term, then I really can't see how you can say it is anything but.
    But surely "ringing endorsement" should be reserved for a party winning a majority. If the numbers are in line with the exit poll, how could anyone describe the Tories' failure to win a majority as a "ringing endorsement"?
    It is more of a ring than Labour and Ed Miliband's dull thud! (if the exit polls are correct of course).
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,625
    You Gov poll is as Chizz says
  • newyorkaddick
    newyorkaddick Posts: 3,052
    ShootersHillGuru said:

    Does anyone else think it slightly unseemly the rush at Sunderland ? Does it actually matter if it takes a couple of hours longer.

    Can't see the Tories demanding a recount in Sunderland
  • IAgree
    IAgree Posts: 1,839
    looks like the Conservatives will get most seats but I find it hard to believe that the SNP will get 58 seats and that the Lib Dems 10.

    At odds by a very large margin with every single poll for weeks and the predictions of five different polling companies and well as the USA guy on panorama.

    Either it's not accurate or opinion polling is seriously flawed
  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,045
    Chizz said:

    The YouGov exit poll looks very different:

    YouGov exit poll - CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1

    Where is this reported ? Can't see it anywhere, it's not even on YouGov's homepage.
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,625
    You Gov pollster on bbc now.
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 52,013
    Southendaddick said:

    Or it could be that the shy Tories have come out in force just like 1992

    This is such a big election the turnout should be high

    I suggested that might happen. Shy Tories like shy Charlton fans.
    Loud Labour like loud Millwall fans :smile:
  • Chizz
    Chizz Posts: 28,341
    EastTerrace said:

    Chizz said:

    The YouGov exit poll looks very different:

    YouGov exit poll - CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1

    What TV network are mentioning this?
    The main networks (BBC, Sky, ITN) fund the MORI Exit poll and therefore concentrate on that, instead of the YouGov numbers.

  • Bournemouth Addick
    Bournemouth Addick Posts: 16,284
    DamoNorthStand said:

    At most you could expect maybe 10 seats either way. There is no way in a million years Labour will get the most seats (or anywhere near). There is also no way they will get a majority coalition with the SNP.

    It has clearly been a puddle of piss of a night for Ed.

    The said the margin for error was up to 20 seats early. Either the early polls were way, way off or this one is. All very odd really.
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  • PL54
    PL54 Posts: 10,757
    se9addick said:

    Chizz said:

    The YouGov exit poll looks very different:

    YouGov exit poll - CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1

    Where is this reported ? Can't see it anywhere, it's not even on YouGov's homepage.
    BBC
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,625
    Covered End said:


    Southendaddick said:

    Or it could be that the shy Tories have come out in force just like 1992

    This is such a big election the turnout should be high

    I suggested that might happen. Shy Tories like shy Charlton fans.
    Loud Labour like loud Millwall fans :smile:
    Football analogies. Red / blue ;0)

  • IAgree
    IAgree Posts: 1,839
    Sturgeon basically saying she doesn't believe the Sky polls prediction.

    Whatever it is going to be a very long night!
  • Fiiish
    Fiiish Posts: 7,998
    I don't believe that the SNP has won that many seats or that the LibDems have lost that many. But I do think LibDems will have at most 20-25 seats and SNP will get at least 45-50.

    UKIP will be an interesting sideshow but not much to affect the ensuing chaos. 2 seats sounds right, at most 3.

    If Labour lose seats, it'd be pretty unprecedented for Miliband to stay on as Leader. I imagine knives are already being sharpened.
  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,045
    PL54 said:

    se9addick said:

    Chizz said:

    The YouGov exit poll looks very different:

    YouGov exit poll - CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1

    Where is this reported ? Can't see it anywhere, it's not even on YouGov's homepage.
    BBC
    Cheers
  • AFKABartram
    AFKABartram Posts: 57,829
    Southendaddick said:

    My missus is currently looking after ballot boxes and counting votes

    She should be home by 5am, think I'll be doing the school run

    I think that's fair mate, the washing up must be right stacking up by then :-)
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,625
    If Lib Dems do get up towards 30 seats as Paddy is predicting then I would think most of those will be expense of the Tories.
  • Addickted4life
    Addickted4life Posts: 7,467
    IF the YouGov exit poll numbers are correct it would mean Tories and Lib Dems at 315; while Lab, SNP, greens and PC at 315.
  • EastTerrace
    EastTerrace Posts: 3,961
    Covered End said:




    Shy Tories like shy Charlton fans.

    Wait a sec, I don't want the rich Premier League to get richer!
  • stonemuse
    stonemuse Posts: 34,013
    ShootersHillGuru said:

    If Lib Dems do get up towards 30 seats as Paddy is predicting then I would think most of those will be expense of the Tories.

    Probably ...if true ..but the exit poll does seem very surprising

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