"the truth is somewhere in the middle" tory polling guru - commenting on the different between exit and all other polls 1) There is no way the SNP have won 95% of Scottish seats. If the they have then that's the end of the union! 2) unlikely that lib Dems down to 10 - I suspect 20-30 is more likely 3) marginals too close to call 4) what will the Tory / Lib Dem total be and will the Lib Dems "cross the floor"
Why do I say that? "call me Dave" has run a toxic anti Scottish, anti immigrant campaign. Miliband has been poor but I value the union and membership of the EU. I suspect the DUP value the union too!
Let's see the numbers evolve but I can't see the Lib Dems signing up as a very, very junior partner, especially if Labour have more than the exit poll suggests. It's in their interests to switch main parties not become a party of the centre right.
If Lib Dems do get up towards 30 seats as Paddy is predicting then I would think most of those will be expense of the Tories.
Which will help the coalition over the line.
Whether it is the Main broadcaster exit poll or the little YouGov one. It would be a massive shock from here if Ed has any legitimate claim to power. It would be a farce for democracy if a party with a significantly higher number of votes than anyone else was shunted aside for a coalition of losers.
Surely Labour supporters would have to admit this.
Harriet Harman stating that the exit poll is not 100pc reliable because of so many closely fought seats between Labour and Tories......
What, so every one of those close seats will swing Labours way? Even then - they still wouldn't be the largest party.
I will tell you who doesn't want Ed in Downing St. The guy who runs the polling company - because the poll would need to be so far out for that to happen someone must have lost a hundred pages of data!
If Lib Dems do get up towards 30 seats as Paddy is predicting then I would think most of those will be expense of the Tories.
Which will help the coalition over the line.
Whether it is the Main broadcaster exit poll or the little YouGov one. It would be a massive shock from here if Ed has any legitimate claim to power. It would be a farce for democracy if a party with a significantly higher number of votes than anyone else was shunted aside for a coalition of losers.
Surely Labour supporters would have to admit this.
Come on - surely.
Too early to say. It would be equally odd to see the Con-Lib coalition majority be wiped out, but cling to power. Lots of options still on the table right now.
It's like when your team go 2-0 up early on and it's oh so tempting to give it the biggun, so I'll refrain for fear of egg on face, but it does look a little bit promising after seeing that.
If Lib Dems do get up towards 30 seats as Paddy is predicting then I would think most of those will be expense of the Tories.
Which will help the coalition over the line.
Whether it is the Main broadcaster exit poll or the little YouGov one. It would be a massive shock from here if Ed has any legitimate claim to power. It would be a farce for democracy if a party with a significantly higher number of votes than anyone else was shunted aside for a coalition of losers.
Surely Labour supporters would have to admit this.
Come on - surely.
It's not a "coalition of losers". The core issues which simply cannot be reversed in five years time are: 1) do the Lib Dems want to continue losing core support to the greens and labour by propping up the Tories? 2) only UKIP and the Tories want an EU referendum - if we end up with a vote and we leave it's a disaster! 3) Scotland is moving towards a position seen by Ireland in the late 19th century. Do parties wish to maintain the Union? 4) Only the Tories and the Tea Party in the whole of the western world are banging on about "austerity works"
Basically a "rainbow" coalition for a year or three can prove Keynsian economic credibility without scuppering the Union or EU membership. The centre left might fight about who is right and seek political advantage but are they going to put the blue party back in?
It's like when your team go 2-0 up early on and it's oh so tempting to give it the biggun, so I'll refrain for fear of egg on face, but it does look a little bit promising after seeing that.
Alastair Campbell needs a serious reality check, saying Ed could form a government on the basis of the exit poll. He's nearly as departed from reality than some of Ed's most aggressive apologists!
Yes. However, given that Sinn Fein don't take their seats, it may be possible that a government could be formed with 323 seats.
Can't see the lib Dems with those sort of numbers in the exit poll willing to go back into coalition gvt. It's like everyone putting in for a whip, but lib Dems only chucking in a couple of quid and staying out till chucking out time
The northern results always come in first as they start the count early, as when the sun goes down they are buggered. Hard and dangerous to count by candle light, in about three elections time electricity may have reached them.
Looking at Mackemville - I wonder if in some of the marginals UKIP voting ate into Labours share?
Edit - big rumours Tories have taken Ed Balls Ups seat...
These rumours started *before* the ballot boxes arrived at the count. Is there some real information; or just a wild hope?
I had a look at last election. He didnt have a big majority and there was a big LD vote that could fracture. If the theory about northern ukip votes coming from labour is true then he was vulnerable.
It's like when your team go 2-0 up early on and it's oh so tempting to give it the biggun, so I'll refrain for fear of egg on face, but it does look a little bit promising after seeing that.
Labour are 2-0 up early on but I'm not tempted to give it the big'un.
Comments
1) There is no way the SNP have won 95% of Scottish seats. If the they have then that's the end of the union!
2) unlikely that lib Dems down to 10 - I suspect 20-30 is more likely
3) marginals too close to call
4) what will the Tory / Lib Dem total be and will the Lib Dems "cross the floor"
Why do I say that? "call me Dave" has run a toxic anti Scottish, anti immigrant campaign. Miliband has been poor but I value the union and membership of the EU. I suspect the DUP value the union too!
Let's see the numbers evolve but I can't see the Lib Dems signing up as a very, very junior partner, especially if Labour have more than the exit poll suggests. It's in their interests to switch main parties not become a party of the centre right.
That woman is a filthmonger, guaranteed.
Most underrated newsreader in the country - and almost mesmerisingly sexy
Conservatives will get the most seats, but well short of a majority.
SNP will be the big story of the night, Sturgeon is far more popular than Salmond ever was. Can see a referendum happening again soon.
Whether it is the Main broadcaster exit poll or the little YouGov one. It would be a massive shock from here if Ed has any legitimate claim to power. It would be a farce for democracy if a party with a significantly higher number of votes than anyone else was shunted aside for a coalition of losers.
Surely Labour supporters would have to admit this.
Come on - surely.
What, so every one of those close seats will swing Labours way? Even then - they still wouldn't be the largest party.
I will tell you who doesn't want Ed in Downing St. The guy who runs the polling company - because the poll would need to be so far out for that to happen someone must have lost a hundred pages of data!
1) do the Lib Dems want to continue losing core support to the greens and labour by propping up the Tories?
2) only UKIP and the Tories want an EU referendum - if we end up with a vote and we leave it's a disaster!
3) Scotland is moving towards a position seen by Ireland in the late 19th century. Do parties wish to maintain the Union?
4) Only the Tories and the Tea Party in the whole of the western world are banging on about "austerity works"
Basically a "rainbow" coalition for a year or three can prove Keynsian economic credibility without scuppering the Union or EU membership. The centre left might fight about who is right and seek political advantage but are they going to put the blue party back in?
Ps Ed Balls in trouble - lol
Probably won't happen but would be fantastic news.
Could we see a Nigel in the cabinet!!
Edit - big rumours Tories have taken Ed Balls Ups seat...
Labour and lib dems looking like they're gonna get spanked.
Carry on.
Think bbc exit poll is closest to result, tho it might be slightly generous.
Think it may be end of Union and end of us in EU