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General Election 2015 official thread
Comments
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"the truth is somewhere in the middle" tory polling guru - commenting on the different between exit and all other polls
1) There is no way the SNP have won 95% of Scottish seats. If the they have then that's the end of the union!
2) unlikely that lib Dems down to 10 - I suspect 20-30 is more likely
3) marginals too close to call
4) what will the Tory / Lib Dem total be and will the Lib Dems "cross the floor"
Why do I say that? "call me Dave" has run a toxic anti Scottish, anti immigrant campaign. Miliband has been poor but I value the union and membership of the EU. I suspect the DUP value the union too!
Let's see the numbers evolve but I can't see the Lib Dems signing up as a very, very junior partner, especially if Labour have more than the exit poll suggests. It's in their interests to switch main parties not become a party of the centre right.0 -
Likebrogib said:
Nina Hossain ain't looking to shabby on ITV an allEastTerrace said:What's her name on sky looks a bit saucy though
That woman is a filthmonger, guaranteed.
Most underrated newsreader in the country - and almost mesmerisingly sexy
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No chance of that exit poll being right.
Conservatives will get the most seats, but well short of a majority.
SNP will be the big story of the night, Sturgeon is far more popular than Salmond ever was. Can see a referendum happening again soon.0 -
Which will help the coalition over the line.ShootersHillGuru said:If Lib Dems do get up towards 30 seats as Paddy is predicting then I would think most of those will be expense of the Tories.
Whether it is the Main broadcaster exit poll or the little YouGov one. It would be a massive shock from here if Ed has any legitimate claim to power. It would be a farce for democracy if a party with a significantly higher number of votes than anyone else was shunted aside for a coalition of losers.
Surely Labour supporters would have to admit this.
Come on - surely.2 -
Which leaves the DUP's 8/9 seats provide the balance (given SF boycott)... ughAddickted4life said:IF the YouGov exit poll numbers are correct it would mean Tories and Lib Dems at 315; while Lab, SNP, greens and PC at 315.
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Harriet Harman stating that the exit poll is not 100pc reliable because of so many closely fought seats between Labour and Tories......
What, so every one of those close seats will swing Labours way? Even then - they still wouldn't be the largest party.
I will tell you who doesn't want Ed in Downing St. The guy who runs the polling company - because the poll would need to be so far out for that to happen someone must have lost a hundred pages of data!0 -
Too early to say. It would be equally odd to see the Con-Lib coalition majority be wiped out, but cling to power. Lots of options still on the table right now.DamoNorthStand said:
Which will help the coalition over the line.ShootersHillGuru said:If Lib Dems do get up towards 30 seats as Paddy is predicting then I would think most of those will be expense of the Tories.
Whether it is the Main broadcaster exit poll or the little YouGov one. It would be a massive shock from here if Ed has any legitimate claim to power. It would be a farce for democracy if a party with a significantly higher number of votes than anyone else was shunted aside for a coalition of losers.
Surely Labour supporters would have to admit this.
Come on - surely.
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Where is the Greenwich & Woolwich result being announced? If I can't sleep I might pop over0
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It's like when your team go 2-0 up early on and it's oh so tempting to give it the biggun, so I'll refrain for fear of egg on face, but it does look a little bit promising after seeing that.3
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It's not a "coalition of losers". The core issues which simply cannot be reversed in five years time are:DamoNorthStand said:
Which will help the coalition over the line.ShootersHillGuru said:If Lib Dems do get up towards 30 seats as Paddy is predicting then I would think most of those will be expense of the Tories.
Whether it is the Main broadcaster exit poll or the little YouGov one. It would be a massive shock from here if Ed has any legitimate claim to power. It would be a farce for democracy if a party with a significantly higher number of votes than anyone else was shunted aside for a coalition of losers.
Surely Labour supporters would have to admit this.
Come on - surely.
1) do the Lib Dems want to continue losing core support to the greens and labour by propping up the Tories?
2) only UKIP and the Tories want an EU referendum - if we end up with a vote and we leave it's a disaster!
3) Scotland is moving towards a position seen by Ireland in the late 19th century. Do parties wish to maintain the Union?
4) Only the Tories and the Tea Party in the whole of the western world are banging on about "austerity works"
Basically a "rainbow" coalition for a year or three can prove Keynsian economic credibility without scuppering the Union or EU membership. The centre left might fight about who is right and seek political advantage but are they going to put the blue party back in?
Ps Ed Balls in trouble - lol
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rumours that the Cons may have pinched Ed Balls seat1
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The so very Charlton way!The Organiser said:It's like when your team go 2-0 up early on and it's oh so tempting to give it the biggun, so I'll refrain for fear of egg on face, but it does look a little bit promising after seeing that.
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Rumour that Balls is a scalp. I don't think there's a single sane person who wouldn't rejoice at this news.
Probably won't happen but would be fantastic news.2 -
Cor, look at the couch on ITV0
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Good god!
Could we see a Nigel in the cabinet!!1 -
Alistair Campbell is playing the Labour Fiiish role to perfection, what a superb bastard
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Looking at Mackemville - I wonder if in some of the marginals UKIP voting ate into Labours share?
Edit - big rumours Tories have taken Ed Balls Ups seat...0 -
Alastair Campbell needs a serious reality check, saying Ed could form a government on the basis of the exit poll. He's nearly as departed from reality than some of Ed's most aggressive apologists!2
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Can't see the lib Dems with those sort of numbers in the exit poll willing to go back into coalition gvt. It's like everyone putting in for a whip, but lib Dems only chucking in a couple of quid and staying out till chucking out timefoxjam said:
Yes. However, given that Sinn Fein don't take their seats, it may be possible that a government could be formed with 323 seats.PL54 said:Is it 326 for a majority ?
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These rumours started *before* the ballot boxes arrived at the count. Is there some real information; or just a wild hope?DamoNorthStand said:Looking at Mackemville - I wonder if in some of the marginals UKIP voting ate into Labours share?
Edit - big rumours Tories have taken Ed Balls Ups seat...
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Nick Robinson's lost his voice. Too busy celebrating the exit polls.
Labour and lib dems looking like they're gonna get spanked.0 -
The northern results always come in first as they start the count early, as when the sun goes down they are buggered. Hard and dangerous to count by candle light, in about three elections time electricity may have reached them.2
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I had a look at last election. He didnt have a big majority and there was a big LD vote that could fracture. If the theory about northern ukip votes coming from labour is true then he was vulnerable.Chizz said:.
These rumours started *before* the ballot boxes arrived at the count. Is there some real information; or just a wild hope?DamoNorthStand said:Looking at Mackemville - I wonder if in some of the marginals UKIP voting ate into Labours share?
Edit - big rumours Tories have taken Ed Balls Ups seat...0 -
Surgery for a tumour on his throat.kentaddick said:Nick Robinson's lost his voice. Too busy celebrating the exit polls.
Labour and lib dems looking like they're gonna get spanked.
Carry on.
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Think he recently had a tumour removed from his throatkentaddick said:Nick Robinson's lost his voice. Too busy celebrating the exit polls.
Labour and lib dems looking like they're gonna get spanked.0 -
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Farage in danger? Hope so
Think bbc exit poll is closest to result, tho it might be slightly generous.
Think it may be end of Union and end of us in EU0 -
We can but hope.AFKABartram said:rumours that the Cons may have pinched Ed Balls seat
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Labour are 2-0 up early on but I'm not tempted to give it the big'un.The Organiser said:It's like when your team go 2-0 up early on and it's oh so tempting to give it the biggun, so I'll refrain for fear of egg on face, but it does look a little bit promising after seeing that.
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The main broadcaster exit poll also got it right last time. Either way - another confirmation that the conservatives have most seats.0
