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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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Comments

  • bobmunro said:

    If that were to happen then I would expect the EU 27 to grant an extension to the 2 year Article 50 time limit.
    For a referendum or GE possibly but I can’t see any extension for a leadership election.

  • General Election serves no purpose as Corbyn much more pro-brexit than May so the two main parties will both be campaigning to leave.

    They may fear losing votes to UKIP and Lib Dems but not enough to change policy.

    And May has already had her fingers burnt at the last snap election.

    So referendum it is with the only two options left. No deal or no Brexit.

    But which politician has the power or inclination to call for that?

    Not May, not Johnson, certainly not Corbyn.
  • For a referendum or GE possibly but I can’t see any extension for a leadership election.

    Yes - agreed.
  • I really can't understand why you keep banging on that us leave voters got it wtong & we need to apologise. Applogise for what exactly ?? we had a referendum & there were only 2 possible outcomes. If, according to your logic, one outcome was so bad then why were we given the choice to vote ?? Surely you ire should be aimed at David Cameron, The Civil Service and any other buggers responsible.

    I was simply asked to attend a polling station & put a X in 1 of 2 boxes. What happens after that I have no power over.

    I have already said publicly on here that TM & her Government have no idea what they are doing & I'm expecting that the end result will either be a no deal or another referendum......which I would probably vote to stay as to leave is patently no possible.

    From all your posts I'm assuming your a Labour supporter. If so I'm looking forward to the next few years so I can blame you for every policy decision that ends up in tears ( as it inevitably will) once Corbyn gets into power.
    Where have I said apologise?
    And what I bang on about is the Irish border.
    I have also consistently said you won get on with it, I have also consistently said no second referendum.
    Whether I vote Labour or Lord Buckethead is of little importance, they can be voted out after five years, your brexit is forever.
    You fit the pattern of looking for someone to blame or dig out instead of coming up with the solutions for getting the UK into this position.
    My post in effect is challenging brexit voters to take the first step and acknowledge they didn't know what they were voting for, did you?
    Once that first step is taken we might have a chance of removing this brexit fatberg from the sewer of British politics.
    Little chance of a U-turn by brexit voters at the moment though, they are loving this nightmare judging by a poster like Chippy.
  • seth plum said:

    Where have I said apologise?
    And what I bang on about is the Irish border.
    I have also consistently said you won get on with it, I have also consistently said no second referendum.
    Whether I vote Labour or Lord Buckethead is of little importance, they can be voted out after five years, your brexit is forever.
    You fit the pattern of looking for someone to blame or dig out instead of coming up with the solutions for getting the UK into this position.
    My post in effect is challenging brexit voters to take the first step and acknowledge they didn't know what they were voting for, did you?
    Once that first step is taken we might have a chance of removing this brexit fatberg from the sewer of British politics.
    Little chance of a U-turn by brexit voters at the moment though, they are loving this nightmare judging by a poster like Chippy.
    “This Brexit fatberg from the sewer of British politics”

    Seth that is a wonderful phrase.

  • seth plum said:

    Where have I said apologise?
    And what I bang on about is the Irish border.
    I have also consistently said you won get on with it, I have also consistently said no second referendum.
    Whether I vote Labour or Lord Buckethead is of little importance, they can be voted out after five years, your brexit is forever.
    You fit the pattern of looking for someone to blame or dig out instead of coming up with the solutions for getting the UK into this position.
    My post in effect is challenging brexit voters to take the first step and acknowledge they didn't know what they were voting for, did you?
    Once that first step is taken we might have a chance of removing this brexit fatberg from the sewer of British politics.
    Little chance of a U-turn by brexit voters at the moment though, they are loving this nightmare judging by a poster like Chippy.
    Sorry......you simply added to a post that @cabbles posted that said "they should hold their hands up" and I read that meaning leave voters should aplogise. I now realise you didn't say this.
  • edited July 2018
    To add to Seth's excellent post, a Hard or No Deal Brexit will need either a Hard NI border or, along with stock-piling, World Economic Sanctions for our failure to collect WTO duties correctly. As evidenced by Barnier's rejection of the White Paper propsals. Curiously proposed by Boris before he quit. Can't even support his own unworkable ideas.

    Slightly off-piste can I recommend David Mark's Heactor McAvoy novels and Anthony Quinn's Celcius Daly. Both about policemen working close to the NI border. Many predate A50. Doubt they have an agenda. But I fear the recent £1bn smuggling cost estimates may be a drop in the ocean.
  • bobmunro said:

    Call me an eternal optimist, but I doubt (hope so anyway) that Chippy is representative of the average brexit voter.

    God help us if I'm wrong.

    The evidence of any Brexit related discussion on my local paper's comments section would suggest Chippy would be one of the more considered Leavers in my own area. We've long since entered the realms of bloody mindedness regardless of the impacts with the majority of Leave voters in my experience.
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  • “This Brexit fatberg from the sewer of British politics”

    Seth that is a wonderful phrase.

    Wow, thank you.
  • Until Shay Given publicises his thoughts I'll heed no attention to this Brexit business.
    Shay being a Donegal man, is well used to the border, however he's not too sure where Dublin is.

    https://youtu.be/6UeNGCNE2E4
  • edited July 2018

    Sorry......you simply added to a post that @cabbles posted that said "they should hold their hands up" and I read that meaning leave voters should aplogise. I now realise you didn't say this.
    Didn’t mean apologise golfie, just meant admit it was the wrong decision. And as mentioned I’m not applying this to everyone, and equally I would quite happily say if it turns out to be for the good of the country and leaving works out, then everyone who did vote to leave got it right, I would say fair play, they made the right decision.

    What I’m sensing among some that did vote to leave is a lack of responsibility if it does go badly. As above it’s all ‘not being given all the facts’, it’s Theresa May’s fault.

    You are correct in that you were asked to put an X on a ballot paper and whatever happens after that is out of your control, and I don’t share Seth’s mantra that brexit voters should own it, but I do find it amazing that some people I’ve spoken to seem to think the whole thing hasn’t worked out because we’ve not taken the right approach to negotiation or whatever

    Perhaps it was never going to work?
  • edited July 2018

    Until late October whem the other 27 EU countries vote to reject Brexit & TM will have to go to parliament & tell them. I then expect either a vote of no confidence on her Government & thus a GE or a vote of no confidence in her by her party & there in a leadership election. In both cases I would hope that the leave process is suspended or put back 3-6 to see what happens next.
    Just to be pedantic, the EU27 will neither vote to reject or accept Brexit in October (they have, in some cases with genuine sadness, already accepted the decision of the referendum).

    They will, however, consider the Withdrawal Agreement that might be agreed at the scheduled Council meeting (I have my doubts), and prepare for each country to ratify it - or consider whether there is any merit to calling for another Council meeting in December.

    For those arguing that the EU27 would be happy to extend Article 50, the mood music is that they might, but that there would have to be real expectation of a changed negotiating environment, and an expectation of progress.

    Nothing in the recent UK Government pronouncements, particularly about the Irish border and the "divorce settlement" suggests that the movement that there is is towards a resolution.

    If I was a gambling man, I'd put my money on no general agreement being made (with the exception being easily agreed side issues) and the UK crashing out in March.

    The really worrying thing is that Northern Ireland, because of the lack of political leadership, is probably the least prepared part of the UK (Civil Service staff are only now being allocated to deal with Brexit issues - we have no policies to attempt to implement).
  • Tactically Article 50 should have been triggered when we were ready to trigger it and if the EU were getting annoyed at the uncertainty and delay, it would have improved our hand. It would have also given us time to work out the sort of Brexit we wanted but like everything in this sorry episode, logic and strategy went out of the window!
  • Tactically Article 50 should have been triggered when we were ready to trigger it and if the EU were getting annoyed at the uncertainty and delay, it would have improved our hand. It would have also given us time to work out the sort of Brexit we wanted but like everything in this sorry episode, logic and strategy went out of the window!

    I said at the time, and still believe, that the EU27 wouldn't have accepted that, they'd have claimed, with some reason, that the UK was not complying with "European values" and would have moved towards Article 7 sanctions.

    Only if the UK had stated a fixed start date (in the near future) for the Article 50 process might there have been EU27 acceptance.

    An open-ended process of internal negotiations before Article 50 would never have been acceptable.
  • edited July 2018
    Yes, but we could have strung them along a bit before it got to that then gave a date sufficiently far into the future - we couldn't do it quickly enough which only served to lose us bargaining power!!!!
  • cabbles said:

    Didn’t mean apologise golfie, just meant admit it was the wrong decision. And as mentioned I’m not applying this to everyone, and equally I would quite happily say if it turns out to be for the good of the country and leaving works out, then everyone who did vote to leave got it right, I would say fair play, they made the right decision.

    What I’m sensing among some that did vote to leave is a lack of responsibility if it does go badly. As above it’s all ‘not being given all the facts’, it’s Theresa May’s fault.

    You are correct in that you were asked to put an X on a ballot paper and whatever happens after that is out of your control, and I don’t share Seth’s mantra that brexit voters should own it, but I do find it amazing that some people I’ve spoken to seem to think the whole thing hasn’t worked out because we’ve not taken the right approach to negotiation or whatever

    Perhaps it was never going to work?

    You are right it is a mantra I have, and the reason is because of the repeated assertions that brexit voters knew what they were voting for.
    Indeed this fits in to my (recent) theme, that until brexit voters, in enough numbers, start to say they didn't know what they were doing, then we won't move on, and no amount of peoples vote will change things. It is a very tough thing to do, to say you were wrong, so maybe realisation will only come about if brexiters are pressed on the detail and they stop shifting responsibility elsewhere.
    So yes, I believe that all the time brexit voters say they knew what they were doing, then in my view they should own it.
  • edited July 2018

    Yes, but we could have strung them along a bit before it got to that then gave a date sufficiently far into the future - we couldn't do it quickly enough which only served to lose us bargaining power!!!!

    Even if the current lot had until the end of time, I very much doubt that they could agree anything that would be practical and acceptable enough to form the basis of a deal.


    And then, they'd still have to negotiate with the EU27.

    In attempting to seem strong the UK set out its red lines, which effectively cancelled each other out. They ensure that there is no possibility of achieving anything better than a basic FTA, and even then, HMG must renege on its commitments on the Irish border.

    At the moment, the plan seems to be, throw a strop and storm off, and demand that everyone else changes their relationship with each other, to suit the UK, because we've left. I'd really love to know what "genius" is masterminding this.
  • I said at the time, and still believe, that the EU27 wouldn't have accepted that, they'd have claimed, with some reason, that the UK was not complying with "European values" and would have moved towards Article 7 sanctions.

    Only if the UK had stated a fixed start date (in the near future) for the Article 50 process might there have been EU27 acceptance.

    An open-ended process of internal negotiations before Article 50 would never have been acceptable.
    Sorry fella but bollocks. The UK referendum legally was a non-binding vote. A50 was the 1st trigger to leave.
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  • Even if the current lot had until the end of time, I very much doubt that they could agree anything that would be practical and acceptable enough to form the basis of a deal.


    And then, they'd still have to negotiate with the EU27.

    In attempting to seem strong the UK set out it's red lines, which effectively cancelled each other out. They ensure that there is no possibility of achieving anything better than a basic FTA, and even then, HMG must renege on its commitments on the Irish border.

    At the moment, the plan seems to be, throw a strop and storm off, and demand that everyone else changes their relationship with each other, to suit the UK, because we've left. I'd really love to know what "genius" is masterminding this.
    Err, is it Duchatelet? It's grounded in as much reality and stands as much chance of success as one of his more hair-brained schemes.
  • Yes, but we could have strung them along a bit before it got to that then gave a date sufficiently far into the future - we couldn't do it quickly enough which only served to lose us bargaining power!!!!

    How many years do you think it would have needed to get our position straight before triggering article 50?

    :wink:
  • seth plum said:


    You are right it is a mantra I have, and the reason is because of the repeated assertions that brexit voters knew what they were voting for.
    Indeed this fits in to my (recent) theme, that until brexit voters, in enough numbers, start to say they didn't know what they were doing, then we won't move on, and no amount of peoples vote will change things. It is a very tough thing to do, to say you were wrong, so maybe realisation will only come about if brexiters are pressed on the detail and they stop shifting responsibility elsewhere.
    So yes, I believe that all the time brexit voters say they knew what they were doing, then in my view they should own it.

    Thing is Seth. If you ask leavers what they actually wanted out of brexit you will get a different answer each time and in the majority of cases they either don’t actually know or voted for something nothing to do with our Eu membership.
  • Well, I would simply have not rushed it - let the EU get annoyed at the uncertainty, which in turn would have strengthened our position. All this you can't do that or can't do this? Why? The truth why we rushed it was every day Brexit is delayed in the future provides an additional opportunity to scupper it. That fear is not sufficient reason to show the EU our cards before the hands are played! It all comes back that doing what is best for the country is not high on the list for the people driving Brexit.
  • Sorry fella but bollocks. The UK referendum legally was a non-binding vote. A50 was the 1st trigger to leave.
    I respectfully disagree, much though I might wish you were correct. I disagree with the vote, and everything that has happened since, including the "policy" followed by the "Opposition".

    The particular non-binding vote, in the context of the UK politics in 2016, could not be ignored by either of the two main parties.

    The UK Government and Opposition had committed to an outcome, and both have since reiterated that they will accept the referendum result as binding - until that changes, the referendum is effectively binding - though the outworkings of the result are not.

    Whilst the last two years has proved that the UK, and its political leaders, have little understanding of the EU27, it has also shown that this is not reciprocal. The EU27 could not have allowed the UK wait forever to put up or shut up; and would have used all of the weapons in their armoury to get the UK to take a settled and public position.
  • edited July 2018
    Well, we will never know, but we certainly could have delayed well beyond the date we have ended up with! Whether you are a Brexiter or Remainer, it makes sense to play your cards as best you can to achieve the best deal! Well at least I thought it did before this useless Government set about it!

  • Thing is Seth. If you ask leavers what they actually wanted out of brexit you will get a different answer each time and in the majority of cases they either don’t actually know or voted for something nothing to do with our Eu membership.
    I agree with you, but we are now at the point where reality bites. perhaps those who voted against immigration will have to face the gaps created in our services, those who voted for border control can sit in the traffic jams, those who voted for free trade with the rest of the world can do those deals whilst paying the WTO tariffs as they currently exist, and so on...security, human rights, scientific co-operation, British nationals in the EU, this is the stuff of reality biting.
    So whatever the myriad reasons that caused people to vote brexit, whatever their main driver was, you can be sure there is a tailor made f*ck up in this process just for them.
    I have also called on brexiters to tell us the good bits, so they don't have to concentrate on digging any of us remainers out, they have an opportunity to paint a picture of the sunny uplands.
    In Rees Moggs's case that picture will be scifi for fifty years hence.
  • Well, we will never know, but we certainly could have delayed well beyond the date we have ended up with! Whether you are a Brexiter or Remainer, it makes sense to play your cards as best you can to achieve the best deal!

    Or could even have sought an agreement (across UK politics) of what form of Brexit to seek (leaving the details to negotiators), even with triggering Article 50 at the same time.

    The most sense would be made by knowing what you're doing in the first place.
  • In Rees-Mogg's case it will mean an early increase in his personal fortune.
  • edited July 2018

    I respectfully disagree, much though I might wish you were correct. I disagree with the vote, and everything that has happened since, including the "policy" followed by the "Opposition".

    The particular non-binding vote, in the context of the UK politics in 2016, could not be ignored by either of the two main parties.

    The UK Government and Opposition had committed to an outcome, and both have since reiterated that they will accept the referendum result as binding - until that changes, the referendum is effectively binding - though the outworkings of the result are not.

    Whilst the last two years has proved that the UK, and its political leaders, have little understanding of the EU27, it has also shown that this is not reciprocal. The EU27 could not have allowed the UK wait forever to put up or shut up; and would have used all of the weapons in their armoury to get the UK to take a settled and public position.
    Sorry NI but 'committed' is not the same as passing legislation in parliament enshrining the referendum vote in law. Which they did not do, unless I missed it. No expert on EU law but doubt they could pursue A7 b4 we triggered A50.
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