Attention: Please take a moment to consider our terms and conditions before posting.
League table talk
Comments
-
A terrible day for Luton, but too early to write them off as their remaining 5 fixtures look winnable. Beat Barnsley on Tuesday, they're only 3 points behind us, and depending on results tomorrow even closer to Hull and BoroShootersHillGuru said:Disastrous day for Luton, Barnsley and Wigan. Psychologically big blows. We are going to be in the scrap right until the death I think but Wigan’s 12 point deduction leaves them effectively on 38 points with five to play. Eight point behind Charlton and one goal better off at present. Looks a tall order for them. Luton two points better off and massively inferior GD. They look to me very close to being gone. Any one from us, Hull, Hudds, Boro, Barnsley and Stoke. The wild card being Sheffield Wednesday. I will be very happy if they get points deducted.3 -
I worry about Luton as they have easy fixtures. Hoping their luck has run out. Before today they had scored 3 goals from their only shots on target in the previous 3 games.1
-
No such thing as an easy fixture in this league, especially when your bottom of the leaguebolloxbolder said:I worry about Luton as they have easy fixtures. Hoping their luck has run out. Before today they had scored 3 goals from their only shots on target in the previous 3 games.1 -
I did not realise that Wigan players have not been paid this month, no incentive for them, especially with the points deduction0
-
Get the feeling that if Wednesday get a points deduction, it won't be enough to drop them into the bottom three.
The longer the EFL take before announcing their punishment (if any) the easier it is for them to calculate what really won't be a punishment at all.
6 -
We really have to beat Wigan then2
-
They've just been smashed 5 - 0, are bottom of the table and have the worst defence in the league - tell why they have easy fixtures?bolloxbolder said:I worry about Luton as they have easy fixtures. Hoping their luck has run out. Before today they had scored 3 goals from their only shots on target in the previous 3 games.
2 -
I think the points deduction if it happens will relegate them. Absolutely no point on earth otherwise.Addickted said:Get the feeling that if Wednesday get a points deduction, it won't be enough to drop them into the bottom three.
The longer the EFL take before announcing their punishment (if any) the easier it is for them to calculate what really won't be a punishment at all.0 -
Since lockdown they beat Swansea and drew with Leeds and PrestonFishCostaFortune said:
They've just been smashed 5 - 0, are bottom of the table and have the worst defence in the league - tell why they have easy fixtures?bolloxbolder said:I worry about Luton as they have easy fixtures. Hoping their luck has run out. Before today they had scored 3 goals from their only shots on target in the previous 3 games.
Before lockdown in February they beat Brentford, Boro and Wednesday
Today's result is completely out of the blue really if you look at their form since February2 -
Luton are walking up the down escalator1
- Sponsored links:
-
3
-
Sheff wed have other issues they're players have not been paid this month either... Don't rule them getting a nice points deduction.3
-
Even if Charlton were mathematically safe I would still hope for Wednesday to get a relegation ensuring points deduction. They knowingly set out to cheat the other Championship clubs. No sympathy for them whatsoever.30
-
2 wins from reading, brum or Wigan should see us safe.Danny Addick said:We really have to beat Wigan then2 -
For those who like mathematical certainty, we currently need 11 points to ensure survival. And, before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.
The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).
So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games.
However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.
Even with defeats at Brentford and against Reading, this week could see that target of 11 points reduced depending on how Luton v Barnsley pans out on Tuesday and Barnsley v Wigan on Saturday.
13 -
I know you are talking about bring "mathematically" safe but realistically you also have to factor in goal difference. Given Barnsley's & especially Luton's are quite a bit worse than ours then on your calculations another 10 points will do.Dave Rudd said:For those who like mathematical certainty, we currently need 11 points to ensure survival. And, before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.
The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).
So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games.
However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.
Even with defeats at Brentford and against Reading, this week could see that target of 11 points reduced depending on how Luton v Barnsley pans out on Tuesday and Barnsley v Wigan on Saturday.0 -
Correct, golfie. But, as you rightly spotted, I am talking about mathematical certainty.golfaddick said:
I know you are talking about bring "mathematically" safe but realistically you also have to factor in goal difference. Given Barnsley's & especially Luton's are quite a bit worse than ours then on your calculations another 10 points will do.Dave Rudd said:For those who like mathematical certainty, we currently need 11 points to ensure survival. And, before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.
The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).
So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games.
However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.
Even with defeats at Brentford and against Reading, this week could see that target of 11 points reduced depending on how Luton v Barnsley pans out on Tuesday and Barnsley v Wigan on Saturday.
If you want realism, I reckon five or six points might do it. But the post was "for those who like mathematical certainty".
2 -
Of course for us to go down we only need one of those teams to go on a stonking run and overtake us, so if Barnsley beat both Luton and Wigan they'd be the threat to us, whereas if they lose both then Luton or Wigan will be the biggest danger, especially as we still have to play Wigan.Dave Rudd said:For those who like mathematical certainty, we currently need 11 points to ensure survival. And, before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.
The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).
So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games.
However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.
Even with defeats at Brentford and against Reading, this week could see that target of 11 points reduced depending on how Luton v Barnsley pans out on Tuesday and Barnsley v Wigan on Saturday.0 -
Are you such a dreamer,
To put the league to rights?
We could play Millwall at home forever,
Where two and two always makes a fiveI'll lay down the crowdies,
Lockdown and hide,
July has April showers,
And two and two always makes a fiveIt's the Belgian owner's way now,
There is no way out,
You can scream and you can shout,
It is too late now0 -
Wouldn't call losing away at Brentford a disaster for Wigan. Most likely expected to get nothing today, but their last 5 are all winnable given their recent form.ShootersHillGuru said:Disastrous day for Luton, Barnsley and Wigan. Psychologically big blows. We are going to be in the scrap right until the death I think but Wigan’s 12 point deduction leaves them effectively on 38 points with five to play. Eight point behind Charlton and one goal better off at present. Looks a tall order for them. Luton two points better off and massively inferior GD. They look to me very close to being gone. Any one from us, Hull, Hudds, Boro, Barnsley and Stoke. The wild card being Sheffield Wednesday. I will be very happy if they get points deducted.
However if the 12 point deduction sticks, they may well have to win all 5 so the pressure will get to them.2 - Sponsored links:
-
It’s not just a loss against Brentford though. It’s 3 goals against, a player sent off who’ll miss 3 games, and they had 0 shots on target.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Wouldn't call losing away at Brentford a disaster for Wigan. Most likely expected to get nothing today, but their last 5 are all winnable given their recent form.ShootersHillGuru said:Disastrous day for Luton, Barnsley and Wigan. Psychologically big blows. We are going to be in the scrap right until the death I think but Wigan’s 12 point deduction leaves them effectively on 38 points with five to play. Eight point behind Charlton and one goal better off at present. Looks a tall order for them. Luton two points better off and massively inferior GD. They look to me very close to being gone. Any one from us, Hull, Hudds, Boro, Barnsley and Stoke. The wild card being Sheffield Wednesday. I will be very happy if they get points deducted.
However if the 12 point deduction sticks, they may well have to win all 5 so the pressure will get to them.6 -
We need 49 points , maybe 50. Nearly there4
-
I'm expecting similar for us on Tuesday night.......stoneroses19 said:
It’s not just a loss against Brentford though. It’s 3 goals against, a player sent off who’ll miss 3 games, and they had 0 shots on target.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Wouldn't call losing away at Brentford a disaster for Wigan. Most likely expected to get nothing today, but their last 5 are all winnable given their recent form.ShootersHillGuru said:Disastrous day for Luton, Barnsley and Wigan. Psychologically big blows. We are going to be in the scrap right until the death I think but Wigan’s 12 point deduction leaves them effectively on 38 points with five to play. Eight point behind Charlton and one goal better off at present. Looks a tall order for them. Luton two points better off and massively inferior GD. They look to me very close to being gone. Any one from us, Hull, Hudds, Boro, Barnsley and Stoke. The wild card being Sheffield Wednesday. I will be very happy if they get points deducted.
However if the 12 point deduction sticks, they may well have to win all 5 so the pressure will get to them.0 -
Their GD is fine anyway, Indeed logically a team with say 60 points who then gets 12 deducted, should have a better GD than a team who only earned 48 points!stoneroses19 said:
It’s not just a loss against Brentford though. It’s 3 goals against, a player sent off who’ll miss 3 games, and they had 0 shots on target.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Wouldn't call losing away at Brentford a disaster for Wigan. Most likely expected to get nothing today, but their last 5 are all winnable given their recent form.ShootersHillGuru said:Disastrous day for Luton, Barnsley and Wigan. Psychologically big blows. We are going to be in the scrap right until the death I think but Wigan’s 12 point deduction leaves them effectively on 38 points with five to play. Eight point behind Charlton and one goal better off at present. Looks a tall order for them. Luton two points better off and massively inferior GD. They look to me very close to being gone. Any one from us, Hull, Hudds, Boro, Barnsley and Stoke. The wild card being Sheffield Wednesday. I will be very happy if they get points deducted.
However if the 12 point deduction sticks, they may well have to win all 5 so the pressure will get to them.0 -
Said the other day when the announcement of administration was made about Wigan. If we beat them in a couple of weeks, we will finish above Wigan, and therefore likely to finish outside the bottom 3.
If Barnsley and Luton draw on Tuesday, it might even be that 50 points could be enough this season.
It would mean Barnsley would have to get another 9 in their last 4. We know about them playing Wigan at home next Saturday, but they are away at both Leeds and Brentford, and in the middle of those two, at home to Forest. Getting 51 points for Barnsley if they draw with Luton on Tuesday is a big ask.
Similarly with Luton. Although on paper their fixtures are easier than Barnsley’s, they are against Huddersfield and Hull in their run in. Two further games where Huddersfield and Hull would know if they pick up points in them, they’re likely to stay up too. You’d be asking Luton to pick up 11 points from their last 4, so essentially they would have to win them all to give themselves a chance.
For those who may ask why 51, it’s because of their goal difference, if we would finish on 50, and they were too, we’d likely finish higher because of it.
It also means that given Wigan’s points deduction, if we beat them, they could also only finish on 50 points and that’s if they won every remaining game other than against us.
There will be twists and turns, but potentially, 50 points could be enough, 51 and you’re almost certainly safe.5 -
49 likely enough to stay up I reckon. 50 almost certain . Beat Wigan and one other point .0
-
Certainly makes for an interesting end to the season, not saying we can’t do it, just think with all we’ve had chucked at us this season, lack of budget, injuries and players refusing to pull on the shirt it would be a heck of an achievement.4
-
Reading, Birmingham and wigan games are absolutely massive and will define our season imo. Any points against brentford and Leeds are bonus7
-
I bet most clubs will be inserting some small print in future contracts along the lines of "Contract expires on June 1st, or the 1st day of the month after the completion of the season should it be delayed"Mendonca In Asdas said:Certainly makes for an interesting end to the season, not saying we can’t do it, just think with all we’ve had chucked at us this season, lack of budget, injuries and players refusing to pull on the shirt it would be a heck of an achievement.2
