League table talk

Mendonca In Asdas

Relax everyone, we’re going to be fine, just get a bit of Bob Marley on tuck into some marshmallows and enjoy the ride.

thenewbie

killerandflash said:

Dave Rudd said:

For those who like mathematical certainty, we currently need 11 points to ensure survival.  And, before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.

Even with defeats at Brentford and against Reading, this week could see that target of 11 points reduced depending on how Luton v Barnsley pans out on Tuesday and Barnsley v Wigan on Saturday.

Of course for us to go down we only need one of those teams to go on a stonking run and overtake us, so if Barnsley beat both Luton and Wigan they'd be the threat to us, whereas if they lose both then Luton or Wigan will be the biggest danger, especially as we still have to play Wigan.

Not necessarily as there are other teams down between us and the bottom three who would all have to overtake us as well.

However it's so very close currently that this is not an impossible or even unlikely turn of events.

Garrymanilow

I have a weird feeling that Wigan's boardroom tomfoolery is so over the top that their points deduction might not happen. I'm working on the basis that it isn't happening, which means we need to get some wins on the board again sharpish. Nicking a 1-0 against Brentford would be a nice start

RolandsOut

Garrymanilow said:

I have a weird feeling that Wigan's boardroom tomfoolery is so over the top that their points deduction might not happen. I'm working on the basis that it isn't happening, which means we need to get some wins on the board again sharpish. Nicking a 1-0 against Brentford would be a nice start

I know it is small comfort, but Charlton STILL have not lost to a top 6 side this campaign. I hope that continues on Tuesday......

jams

Garrymanilow said:

I have a weird feeling that Wigan's boardroom tomfoolery is so over the top that their points deduction might not happen. I'm working on the basis that it isn't happening, which means we need to get some wins on the board again sharpish. Nicking a 1-0 against Brentford would be a nice start

Me too, although second guessing the efl is difficult at the best of times 

cantersaddick

ShootersHillGuru said:

Addickted said:

Get the feeling that if Wednesday get a points deduction, it won't be enough to drop them into the bottom three.

The longer the EFL take before announcing their punishment (if any) the easier it is for them to calculate what really won't be a punishment at all.

I think the points deduction if it happens will relegate them. Absolutely no point on earth otherwise. 

Like Birmingham's last season?

cafcpolo

I think 4pts will be enough for us now, IF Wigan do get their deduction. That'll see us safe on goal difference.

If they don't, I think we're down unless we get a surprise result or two. 

Bedsaddick

I’m sure this Wigan points deduction thing will be overturned. If this betting thing turns out to be true then the EFL will have to overturn their decision 

MrOneLung

we are only 2 points clear people and two of the teams below us have a game in hand. 

Why are people being so blasé?

we have still got everything to fight for. 

oohaahmortimer

MrOneLung said:

we are only 2 points clear people and two of the teams below us have a game in hand. 

Why are people being so blasé?

we have still got everything to fight for. 

Because we score goals for fun

Dazzler21

MrOneLung said:

we are only 2 points clear people and two of the teams below us have a game in hand. 

Why are people being so blasé?

we have still got everything to fight for. 

Wigan are technically on 38 so I'd put us at 5 points clear personally.

Can't see Hull beating West Brom,

Boro QPR is a different story.

oohaahmortimer

If Wigan were guaranteed -12 I’d feel a lot happier with our position but if they appeal and don’t get deducted it’s gonna be evil 

hmmoore

So we’re 6 clear of Luton, 5 clear of Barnsley (with gd effectively 7 and 6) and , again effectively, 8 clear of Wigan  after deductions. 5 games to go. One more win and a draw needed I think.

RedChaser

It's all about predictions depending on your optimistic or pessimistic outlook on life but skewed as a Charlton fan, with all that has gone before especially in recent times. The most difficult thing to predict is the actions of the EFL regarding the 12 point deduction. Nothing would surprise me if they did a complete U turn!

We ourselves may have a points deduction hanging over us regarding source and sufficiency of funds which as @Weegie Addick pointed out last night was at the heart of Bury's expulsion from the league. As I've said before the EFL are a law unto themselves.

Dave Rudd

The bookies now have us at around 4/1 to be relegated.

In seasons like this, it's about now that I bung £100 on us to go down.  If I'm wrong, I have merely 'invested' £100 to ensure that we stay up (as all true fans would) or I get a free season ticket plus a bit of spare cash for next season.

Henry Irving

@daverudd

Excellent work on the 11 points needed.

It's what we baseball fans would call the elimination or E number.

Please keep updating us as the games get played

Dave Rudd

Henry Irving said:

@daverudd

Excellent work on the 11 points needed.

It's what we baseball fans would call the elimination or E number.

Please keep updating us as the games get played

Yes, that's the plan, Henry.

I thought we might call it the 'R number' (R for Relegation).  I don't think that term has been used anywhere else.

You Cards fans will know all about elimination anyway.

golfaddick

oohaahmortimer said:

If Wigan were guaranteed -12 I’d feel a lot happier with our position but if they appeal and don’t get deducted it’s gonna be evil 

Yes, because if we ended up 3rd from bottom in real time & Wigan then didn't have 12 points deducted I'D mount an appeal. The EFL have made their decision & teams are now playing to that decision. You can't now change the decision back again in August once the season finishes. No appeals should be allowed. The rules are very clear on what happens if you enter administration.......its not  up for discussion. 

RedChaser

I share your sentiments Golfie however it SHOULDN'T be up for discussion but this is the EFL we are talking about 😏

sammy391

Garrymanilow said:

I have a weird feeling that Wigan's boardroom tomfoolery is so over the top that their points deduction might not happen. I'm working on the basis that it isn't happening, which means we need to get some wins on the board again sharpish. Nicking a 1-0 against Brentford would be a nice start

But are the rules strict on administration?
they've entered it, the rules say that because they have entered admin then they have 12 points deducted 

RedChaser

The EFL are akin to a trade organisation regulatory body whose members vote for its rules. I haven't read their constitution but what's to say an egm can't be called if skulduggery has gone on in the admin of Wigan and there is a majority vote to overturn the original ruling?

Fanny Fanackapan

RedChaser said:

The EFL are akin to a trade organisation regulatory body whose members vote for its rules. I haven't read their constitution but what's to say an egm can't be called if skulduggery has gone on in the admin of Wigan and there is a majority vote to overturn the original ruling?

With all this angst & stress unlikely to have gone away until 23rd July at the latest, I've decided to cancel my long overdue haircut on Weds. 

Clearly, I need as much on my bonce as possible in order for some to survive the inevitable "tearing out" between now & the hour our fate is sealed. 

( Finger nails have already bitten the dust !) 

RedChaser

Sorry Fanny, don't cancel go and get pampered. I'm just trying to highlight that it's not over for Wigan or us until it's over. Our best bet is to make sure that three clubs finish lower than us as we stand now and treat any points deductions for our peers as a bonus.

cfgs

Bedsaddick said:

I’m sure this Wigan points deduction thing will be overturned. If this betting thing turns out to be true then the EFL will have to overturn their decision 

It is horrible but if they do not give them the 12 points the three clubs that go down will probably take legal action, as would any other club that gets the punishment in the future. The EFL are just hoping they start winning again and they finish 13 points above the drop zone.

Redrobo

Think QPR will beat Middlesbrough.

Wigan would have to claim and provide evidence that Covid 19 was the “unavoidable and unforeseen” circumstances in order to appeal.

A tad difficult when it was bought in the middle of the outbreak. The owners may have evidence to suggest it was - but they have buggered off and no one has heard from then since.

The EFL would also have a bit of a problem if others went into administration claiming the same thing. It would be a green light to dump your debts.

Todds_right_hook

Redrobo said:

Think QPR will beat Middlesbrough.

Wigan would have to claim and provide evidence that Covid 19 was the “unavoidable and unforeseen” circumstances in order to appeal.

A tad difficult when it was bought in the middle of the outbreak. The owners may have evidence to suggest it was - but they have buggered off and no one has heard from then since.

The EFL would also have a bit of a problem if others went into administration claiming the same thing. It would be a green light to dump your debts.

Right so far. Hopefully this is the year that warnock fails to deliver

iaitch

Can ever remember Boro being in the third tier.

Dansk_Red

1986

Redrobo

iaitch said:

Can ever remember Boro being in the third tier.

It is difficult to imagine a team with so many good players going down, and with Wigan getting -12 and Sheffield Wednesday hopefully getting a minimum -12.

iaitch

Thanks.