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The mathematics of relegation
Comments
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And off we go.
A reminder that R currently stands at 11, while R' (the theoretical number of points required to avoid relegation if the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) sits at 14.0 -
If Luton win, R drops by one point right?
(as Barnsley’s max total becomes 53 vs Luton’s 55)0 -
Nothing for us at Brentford, but the Luton v Barnsley draw means that R drops to 9.
R' unaffected, but Middlesbrough might help that tomorrow night.0 -
This Wigan thing being up in the air really dosent help , we need to know one way or the other ASAP.1
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I think the EFL put a statement out tonight basically saying the appeal isn't going to workCH4RLTON said:This Wigan thing being up in the air really dosent help , we need to know one way or the other ASAP.0 -
Reading game Saturday is huge0
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That is what I heard. Rightly too.Leeds_Addick said:
I think the EFL put a statement out tonight basically saying the appeal isn't going to workCH4RLTON said:This Wigan thing being up in the air really dosent help , we need to know one way or the other ASAP.
Relegate SW, and give them a chance.4 -
Have a feeling we may hear about the Massives and their points deduction tomorrow ... Which would be nice!1
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Seems like although we lost tonight we "gained" on the field as both Luton & Barnsley only picked up a point each and they really need to be winning games with only 4 to go.
Barnsley v Wigan will be an interesting one. A point apiece is most favourable but I would take a Wigan win just as long as we dont lose to them a week later. Might be academic by then as they could be already down (taking into account the 12 point deduction) but I feel we need another 4 or 5 points to be safe.0 - Sponsored links:
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Definitely won’t need 4. If we went down on 49 points that would mean one of Wigan getting Luton or Barnsley either 49 or 50 respectively.golfaddick said:Seems like although we lost tonight we "gained" on the field as both Luton & Barnsley only picked up a point each and they really need to be winning games with only 4 to go.
Barnsley v Wigan will be an interesting one. A point apiece is most favourable but I would take a Wigan win just as long as we dont lose to them a week later. Might be academic by then as they could be already down (taking into account the 12 point deduction) but I feel we need another 4 or 5 points to be safe.To get 49, Wigan need 11 points from 15.To get 50, Luton need 9 from 12 and Barnsley 8.I can’t see Luton or Barnsley getting above 47. Wigan have been playing well but still going to be very difficult, especially under these circumstances.I think we stay up by avoiding defeat against Wigan, even if lose the other 3, probably on goal difference. Could be wrong but I’d bet my house that 49 keeps us up (on the condition Wigan get 12 deducted).2 -
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That Luton and Barnsley result was fantastic. We'd be up against it if Barnsley had won and were sitting on 44. Now I just cannot see Bansley or Luton getting above 47/48. I'd say we need three to be sure, but if you offered me two points on the condition that one was against Wigan I'd definitely take it.0
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That being the case, should we not be going out now to try to win every game rather than not losing? I'm not by any means suggesting all out attack and leaving ourselves vulnerable at the back but surely picking Doughty, Williams and two up top has to be the way forward?cafcfan1990 said:
Definitely won’t need 4. If we went down on 49 points that would mean one of Wigan getting Luton or Barnsley either 49 or 50 respectively.golfaddick said:Seems like although we lost tonight we "gained" on the field as both Luton & Barnsley only picked up a point each and they really need to be winning games with only 4 to go.
Barnsley v Wigan will be an interesting one. A point apiece is most favourable but I would take a Wigan win just as long as we dont lose to them a week later. Might be academic by then as they could be already down (taking into account the 12 point deduction) but I feel we need another 4 or 5 points to be safe.To get 49, Wigan need 11 points from 15.To get 50, Luton need 9 from 12 and Barnsley 8.I can’t see Luton or Barnsley getting above 47. Wigan have been playing well but still going to be very difficult, especially under these circumstances.I think we stay up by avoiding defeat against Wigan, even if lose the other 3, probably on goal difference. Could be wrong but I’d bet my house that 49 keeps us up (on the condition Wigan get 12 deducted).
After all, how much easier is it to win one game as opposed to trying to draw three?1 -
Too early to suggest 49 is safe, Wigan/Barnsley will be a key game as if Wigan beat QPR, Barnsley and Hull (which isn't impossible) they will have an effective 47 before they play us. And their final game is against Fulham, who by that stage may be saving themselves for the playoffs
Luton still have to play Huddersfield and Hull, both winnable, have QPR which isn't that bad a fixture and finish against Blackburn who may be on the beach. Not impossible to see them reach 503 -
Let's see what Wigan team turns up tonight???? A team of fighting for survival or a team resigned to being sold off... Big game for them.1
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I like this thread cheers, personally think 50/51 should be enough but there are some key games. If we can win 2 of the next 3 we should be ok, or even pick up 5 points.0
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It's a nerd fest for star loving addicks!
Agree 50 points should do it.0 -
Middlesbrough's win at Millwall sees both R numbers unchanged ... R stays at 9 and R' at 14.
Oh joy.0 -
Millwall not going to do us any favours FFS0
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The best way to lose a game is to go out for the draw!Addick Addict said:
That being the case, should we not be going out now to try to win every game rather than not losing? I'm not by any means suggesting all out attack and leaving ourselves vulnerable at the back but surely picking Doughty, Williams and two up top has to be the way forward?cafcfan1990 said:
Definitely won’t need 4. If we went down on 49 points that would mean one of Wigan getting Luton or Barnsley either 49 or 50 respectively.golfaddick said:Seems like although we lost tonight we "gained" on the field as both Luton & Barnsley only picked up a point each and they really need to be winning games with only 4 to go.
Barnsley v Wigan will be an interesting one. A point apiece is most favourable but I would take a Wigan win just as long as we dont lose to them a week later. Might be academic by then as they could be already down (taking into account the 12 point deduction) but I feel we need another 4 or 5 points to be safe.To get 49, Wigan need 11 points from 15.To get 50, Luton need 9 from 12 and Barnsley 8.I can’t see Luton or Barnsley getting above 47. Wigan have been playing well but still going to be very difficult, especially under these circumstances.I think we stay up by avoiding defeat against Wigan, even if lose the other 3, probably on goal difference. Could be wrong but I’d bet my house that 49 keeps us up (on the condition Wigan get 12 deducted).
After all, how much easier is it to win one game as opposed to trying to draw three?0 -
According to my accountant... 50 points are needed.... So win and a draw please!
He also laughingly said have a bet on Birmingham to go down...always surprise team he says!1 -
"That will be £100 for the bookkeeping, £150 for the tax return and £50 for the relegation prediction"peterreeves said:According to my accountant... 50 points are needed.... So win and a draw please!
He also laughingly said have a bet on Birmingham to go down...always surprise team he says!2 -
How'd you know his prices! 🤣killerandflash said:
"That will be £100 for the bookkeeping, £150 for the tax return and £50 for the relegation prediction"peterreeves said:According to my accountant... 50 points are needed.... So win and a draw please!
He also laughingly said have a bet on Birmingham to go down...always surprise team he says!3 -
Clearly fictitious. All accountants quote their prices in guineas ... the 'gentleman's denomination'.peterreeves said:
How'd you know his prices! 🤣killerandflash said:
"That will be £100 for the bookkeeping, £150 for the tax return and £50 for the relegation prediction"peterreeves said:According to my accountant... 50 points are needed.... So win and a draw please!
He also laughingly said have a bet on Birmingham to go down...always surprise team he says!
Don't want to tempt fate but, if Hull City lose at Bristol tonight they replace Middlesbrough as the critical team in the R' scenario (the one where Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned) and R' drops to 12.
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Who would have honestly thought that the SCUM
would be beaten by Middlesbrough?
now we have to get our Act together Mr Bowyer 👍0 -
It’s actually better if Hull are the R’ team as they still have to play Luton (and Wigan if they’re in contention) - one getting their max point total means the others can’t (and brings another team bottom into the bottom 3 in many scenarios)Dave Rudd said:
Clearly fictitious. All accountants quote their prices in guineas ... the 'gentleman's denomination'.peterreeves said:
How'd you know his prices! 🤣killerandflash said:
"That will be £100 for the bookkeeping, £150 for the tax return and £50 for the relegation prediction"peterreeves said:According to my accountant... 50 points are needed.... So win and a draw please!
He also laughingly said have a bet on Birmingham to go down...always surprise team he says!
Don't want to tempt fate but, if Hull City lose at Bristol tonight they replace Middlesbrough as the critical team in the R' scenario (the one where Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned) and R' drops to 12.
However they have scored with their only shot on target today (following suit from Luton in previous weeks). Hopefully Bristol City can keep them at bay for the next 30 mins!0 -
Bristol 2-1 80 minutes1
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Cue the hull city equalizer0
